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TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
9* CBB SUPREME ANNIHILATOR
Iowa St. v/s Colorado
Play: Iowa St.
The struggles continue for Colorado as it has now dropped to 0-4 in the Big XII following its home loss to Kansas St. on Saturday. That happened to be the first conference victory for the Wildcats and it was the second straight opponent that the Buffaloes allowed to attain it first victory. Last Tuesday, it was Texas Tech. This team is young, inexperienced and still trying to learn the methodical system that second year head coach Jeff Bzdelik is implementing. He was successful at Air Force but there was talent and veteran teams that made that success come out. The Buffaloes were pegged for last place in the Big XII in the preseason and it looks as though that prediction may come true unless something out of the ordinary happens and that isn’t likely. This team brought back only 22.1 ppg in scoring and thus far no one has been able to step up on a consistent basis. Iowa St. is another team that is struggling but there are reasons for it. The Cyclones are 1-3 through the first four games of conference action but those three losses came against Texas, Missouri and Kansas who are a combined 11-2 in the Big XII and 46-11 overall. The one beatable team, Nebraska, was beat. With a game at home against Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge game for Iowa St. and one that needs to be taken care of. The Cyclones feature one of the league’s top players, forward Craig Brackins, who is coming off a 42-point performance against Kansas. He is definite NBA material and he leads the team in scoring with 19.3 ppg. He is a tough matchup and Colorado simply does not have anyone who can in fact match up. Iowa St. went 11-4 in its non-conference schedule that included decent wins against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Northern Iowa and Houston. Of those four losses, two came by a combined four points, another by seven points and the fourth at Iowa. Overall, the Cyclones have played the 214th ranked slate while Colorado has played the 220th ranked schedule so the difference in wins and losses is significant. Colorado has an advantage in offensive shooting as it is hitting 47.3 percent compared to 42.6 percent for the Cyclones. Looking at that alone may show that the Buffaloes have a big edge on offense but that is far from the case. Offensive efficiency numbers are dead even at the ratings are 98.6 and 98.5 respectively. Those are the bottom two rating in the conference so there is certainly nothing to brag about on either side. However, defensively is where the discrepancy takes place. Iowa St. is allowing only 39.3 percent shooting while Colorado is allowing 46.4 percent. Unlike the offense, the defensive efficiency ratings back those percentages up. The Cyclones have a rating of 93.0 which is 7th in the conference and 53rd in the nation. Colorado meanwhile has a rating of 101.8 which is dead last in the Big XII and 192nd in the nation. Colorado is the only team in the entire Big XII to have a negative efficiency margin. While those numbers are in favor of the Cyclones, they also have advantages in two other important categories, rebounding and assist/turnover ratio. Colorado is -5.6 in rebounding margin which is 312th in the country and worst in the conference. Iowa St. is in the negative as well but only at -0.8 which is a much more respectable 190th overall. The Buffaloes are averaging only 30.8 rpg on the defensive end and offensive rebounding is a big issue. They are grabbing offensive boards at a 22.7 percent clip which is last in the conference and 342nd in the country while they allow 33.4 percent, 10th in the Big XII and 174th overall. The Cyclones do not get many but they don’t allow many and they are allowing just 27 percent which is the best in the Big XII and 10th in the nation. Iowa St. is +0.40 in assist/turnover margin ratio and its 1.25 ratio is good for 26th in the country. Colorado’s ratio meanwhile is just 0.85 and ranked 233rd overall. Iowa St. falls into a very solid situation. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 40 and 49 percent on the season. This situation is 56-19 ATS (74.7 percent) over the last five seasons. The struggles for the Buffaloes continue. 9* Iowa St. Cyclones
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
ATS Sports Club
NBA Side Blowout Winner
Orlando Magic -9
NHL Ice-Melter Winner
New York Rangers -150
1* Lakers Over
5* Virginia Com -6'
BAYLOR OVER 146
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Units - Denver/Memphis o204
3 Units - Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5
3 Units - Charlotte Bobcats +11
5 Units - Detroit Red Wings -150
5 Units - San Jose Sharks -200
4 Units - New York Rangers -155
4 Units - New Jersey Devils -130
3 Units - Hurricanes/Rangers u5.5 (-140)
3 Units - Detroit Red Wings -1.5 (+190)
4 Units - Boston College/Maryland o143
4 Units - Purdue +1
3 Units - Baylor -1
3 Units - Kentucky -9
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
15* Western Conf Game of the Week-NBA
My 15* play is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. The Spurs have fought back from a slow start and injuries to Ginobili and Parker to have the West's second-best record but San Antonio was out-classed by the Lakers in LA on Sunday, losing 99-85. Sunday's game began a brutal stretch for the Spurs, who will play in Phoenix on Thursday, then return home for a game with the Hornets on Saturday before embarking on an eight-game road trip. The "Big Three" is still intact (and playing well) but the Spurs no longer have the quality depth that made them so tough. Mason (11.7) and the 6-10 Bonner (7.9-4.7) have been very good from beyond the arc (Mason makes 44.0 percent of his threes and Bonner an amazing 51.7 percent) but I predict the Spurs will struggle on this trip. The Jazz remain without Boozer (20.5-11.7) and Kirilenko (12.7-5.8-3.1) has missed the last three games with an ankle injury (he's listed as doubtful tonight). However, through all its troubles, the Jazz remain a tough team here at home (17-5), despite everything. Utah enters on a three-game losing streak, including a Saturday home loss to the Cavs, when LeBron had 33 and Mo Williams 25. However, the Jazz have won four straight regular season meetings here in Utah against the Spurs, holding them to an average of 80.8 PPG. The Jazz have to be embarrassed by their Nov 21 effort (if one could call it that?) in San Antonio, where the Spurs won 119-94. Expect Okur (17.1-8.2), Williams (16.8-10.1 APG) and Millsap (15.6-9.7) to lead the Jazz to a solid win tonight. Millsap in particular, should be watched. The PF from La Tech has made the most of Boozer's absence, posting 19 consecutive double-doubles before getting hurt in a Jan 10 game with Detroit. He sat out the next three games and returned vs Dallas on Jan 17, playing 21 minutes (four points / three rebounds). However, he's back 100 percent now, averaging 21.0 PPG and 13.0 RPG in his last four games. The Jazz have struggled defensively in their three game slide, allowing 109.0 PPG but the team hasn't lost four straight since December 2007 and remember, owns four straight regular season home wins over the Spurs, holding them to 80.8 PPG. Western Conf Game of the Week 15* Ut Jazz.
Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (75% run since mid-Jan!)
My Oddsmaker's Error play is on Wisconsin at 9:00 ET. The Boilermakers are now resembling the team that was tabbed in the preseason as the Big 10's favorite. Matt Painter had that outstanding freshman class last year and now sophomores, guard Moore (14.0-4.7), the 6-8 Hummel (13.2-7.9) and the 6-10 Johnson (12.8-5.7) lead the way for a Purdue team which is currently ranked No. 16 with a 15-4 record. Hummel is suffering from back spasms (he has come off the bench in two of the last four games), while Johnson has been the team's best player during Purdue's current four-game winning streak, averaging 15.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 3.5 blocks. As for Wisconsin, Bo Ryan entered this year with a 173-60 mark in seven years at Madison, winning 30 and 31 games the last two years. The only other schools to have won 30 games or more in each of the last two seasons are Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA, putting the Badgers in some fairly elite company. The 6-11 Butch (12.4-6.0) may not have been very athletic but he's been missed, as had guard Flowers (9.6-3.9-2.7). Wisconsin enters this game 12-7 (3-4 in the Big 10) and on a four-game losing streak, looking to avoid its first five-game slide in more than a decade. Wisconsin's recent problems have been its inability to shoot well from beyond the three-point line. Wisconsin is shooting 25.6 percent from three-point range in its last four games with Trevon Hughes (12.2) having the most trouble. Hughes was 49.2 percent three-point shooter on the season prior to the team's four-game slide (which began with a loss at Purdue) but has made 21.7 percent (5-of-23) from beyond the line since. Bohannon (10.9) and 6-7 swingman Krabbenhoft (9.6-3.9-2.7) join Hughes in the starting lineup, while the 6-7 Landry (13.1-4.2) and the 6-10 Leuer (188.8.131.52) start inside. Purdue had little problem with the Badgers back in West Lafayette on Jan 11, winning 65-52 as Johnson had 20 points and 10 rebounds while Hummel added 16 points. However, let's not forget how strong a home team Wisconsin has been under Ryan, especially vs Big 10 foes. The Boilermakers won in Madison last year 72-67, ending Wisconsin's 16-game home conference winning streak. The victory also ended an eight-game losing streak for Purdue in Madison. Expect the Badgers to begin a new home winning streak against the Boilermakers in this one. Oddsmaker's Error on Wisconsin.
Weekly Wipeout Winner-CBB (won 2 of L3)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on George Mason at 7:00 ET. Jim Larranaga famously led his Patriots to the Final 4 in 2006, just missed getting back to the NCAAs the following year (lost in the CAA tourney final) and last season was back in the "Big Dance." The Patriots enter this game 14-5 overall and 7-2 in CAA play, which leaves them a game behind VCU and Northeastern (both 8-1). Gone from LY's team are the 6-7 Thomas (16.1-10.4) and swingman Campbell (15.6-4.5-3.3), who were both significant contributors on that Final 4 team. However, the Patriots still have a veteran team this year. The 6-7 Monroe (10.2-8.6) missed all of LY with an injury but has returned to fill Thomas' spot inside. The 6-7 Birdsong (7.5-3.1) and 6-6 freshman Pearson (7.3-4.3) are the team's other major inside contributors. The perimeter game misses Campbell but vets Long (12.,3-4.4-3.5), Vaughan (11.6-3.8) and Smith (8.6) plus super-quick freshman Cornelius (6.3) form a deep and very good backcourt. Delaware has four of five starters back from LY's 14-17 (9-9 in the CAA) team but the Blue Hens are heading for a similar season TY. Only the 6-9 Ledsome (5.7-6.2) has any real size and he'll be overmatched vs Monroe and Birdsong. Delaware's perimeter game is very good but it only holds a slight advantage over GMU's quality depth. The 6-6 Egerson (13.9-10.4-2.9) and 6-4 Dawson (15.7-5.4) are the two "big guards," while the 5-11 Carter (16.6-2.6-2.5) and the 5-10 Johnson (9.1) round out a pretty good group. Now here's the rub. George Mason allows just 60.3 PPG (compared to Delaware's 70.8 PPG), while holding opponents to 40.2 percent from the floor (31.1 percent on threes). Delaware shoots just 41.1 percent as a team , including 32.1 percent on threes, so don't expect them to have too much success here in Fairfax. Delaware is 0-4 SU on the CAA road, including a 75-72 loss at 5-16 UNC-Wilmington, so why would anyone expect the Hens to be competitive here at GMU. where the Patriots are 9-0 SU with their average margin of victory coming by 16.3 PPG? Vaughan is out with a concussion but GMU has plenty of depth in the backcourt to overcome is absence. Weekly Wipeout Winner on George Mason.
15* Revenge Rout-CBB (won two of last three)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on Utah at 10:00 ET. Dave Rose took over a BYU program which had won only nine games and these last three seasons has led the Cougars to 20, 25 and 27 wins. However, the last two seasons have ended with losses to BYU in the MWC championship game (played in Las Vegas) and then first-round losses in the NCAA tourney. BYU was hoping to reverse that trend this year and the Cougars opened 10-0 this season before falling in Phoenix to Arizona State on Dec 20, 76-75 (game-winning tip in at the buzzer was ruled no good!). BYU has had some troubles since then as well, as Wake ended its 53-game home winning streak on Jan 3 plus the Cougars got creamed at New Mexico on Jan 17 (81-62) and lost at home to UNLV on Jan 21, 76-70. The Cougars have two terrific players in the 6-6 Tavernari (17.4-7.1) and the 6-7 Cummard (17.0-6.1-3.4) with sophomore guard Fredette (14.5-4.3 APG) having a very good season as well. However, they have not been able to replace the 6-11 Plaisted (15.6-7.7), as the 6-11 Miles (6.7-3.7) has come nowhere near matching his productivity. The experience and leadership of graduated guards Murdock and Burgess also hurts. Utah comes into this game at 12-7 (compared to BYU's 15-4 mark) but the Utes match up well with Cougars. They own a deep backcourt with seniors Borha (11.1) and Kepay (10.2) plus sophomore Brown (9.9-3.7 APG) and junior Drca (7.9-3.2) round out an excellent perimeter group. Inside, the 7-1 Nevil (17.2-8.4) will be a tough matchup for BYU, while the 6-8 Green (10.4-5.2) and the 6-9 Tillie (3.6-4.9) lend support. Utah was shocked by Southwest Baptist in its home opener (lost 80-79) but since then has won SEVEN of eight home games, losing to only Cal by three points. Two of those seven wins have come over No. 20 Gonzaga and against 15-4 LSU, by 30 points! Utah lost both of its games vs the hated Cougars last year and second-year head coach Jim Boylen will be eager to get a win here over Utah's biggest rival. Despite the play of Tavernari and Cummard, the Cougars are 'ripe for the taking.' Revenge Rout 15* Utah.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play. Take #711 Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
The Bulls will keep it going tonight with a nice road win over WMU in Michigan. Buffalo has been on fire since its trip to Hawaii after Christmas and have won nine of their last 11 games overall. The Bulls have won each of their last two road games, beating Miami, OH and Akron in two of the toughest venues in the MAC. This is Buffalo’s first crossover game with MAC West and I will be looking to play all of the Eastern teams in these types of situations because the East is just so considerably better than its counterparts. Buffalo has covered four of its last five away from home and I think their athletic backcourt is able to slow down David Kool and Shawntes Gary tonight. And if WMU gets outplayed in the backcourt then they stand no chance. These two played a wild one last year in Buffalo, with WMU winning 100-90 in OT. That game went into overtime and that was a first place WMU team against a last place Buffalo squad. This year the Bulls have the better squad and they get a convincing win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #713 Delaware (+12) over George Mason (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
John Vaughan is out again and this could be a tough spot for the Patriots after getting beaten by VCU on Saturday. They made a nice comeback in that game though and they will dominate the interior. Delaware stinks on the road – although they have been significantly better this year – and are small. But Vaughan is Mason’s best defender and without him the Pats got lit up by VCU. Also, Mason only goes six-deep now without JV. Delaware has three of the top 12 scorers in the conference and I think they can score enough points to keep this one respectable. They beat Mason at home last year and only lost by 12 on the road, so they can keep up, I think. This is just too many points as games are starting to tighten up.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Kentucky (-8.5) over Mississippi (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
The Rebels have a real nice home record (9-2) on the season, but most of those wins came when they were relatively healthy and against cupcake teams. Kentucky is flat out the best team in the SEC and Ole Miss is hanging on by a thread. They lost by 32 points in their last home game and five of their last six losses have been by nine or more points. In fact, seven of their nine losses this year have been by nine or more, so when they lose, they get blown out. If Kentucky stays tight with David Huertas – and I think Billy Gillespie is a smart enough coach to know that Huertas is the only threat that the Rebels have – then UK should be able to stifle a weakened Rebels attack. Ole Miss is one of the worst defensive teams in the country (No. 276 in points allowed) and they are going to try to play at a pace that really favors the Wildcats. Kentucky has won its last three road games by 10, by 23, and by 18 against teams that are all better than the Rebels right now. The SEC has been a favorite league and a blowout league all year and I look for that to continue.
4-Unit Play. Take Utah (-3.5) over BYU (9 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
The Utes are going to be ready to rock tonight against their archrivals from BYU. Utah has heavy revenge on its mind after being swept by the Cougars in each of the past two years. Luke Nevill should absolutely dominate the younger interior players for BYU and I see the Utes being able to lock up the perimeter scorers for the Cougars. Utah has dominated at home this season and a one-point win over mighty Gonzaga and a three-point loss against Pac-10 stalwart Cal are the only home games this year that Utah has not won by double digits. I expect a similar blowout here. BYU has not played many road games this year and they were blasted by 19 points in their last away outing at New Mexico.
1-Unit Play. Take #723 Air Force (+13) over Wyoming (8 p.m.) AND Marshall (+13) over Southern Mississippi (9 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #733 Northeastern (+7) over VCU (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 27)
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2 Star Selection
Boston College (+5) over MARYLAND
Maryland is coming off a humiliating 44-85 blowout loss to Duke and it’s not easy to rebound from a confidence shattering loss like that. The Terrapins, in fact, apply to a negative 25-84-7 ATS situation that is based on that big loss and Gary Williams’ teams have not been nearly as good off a loss as they have been off a win over the years. Maryland is only 47-67-3 ATS in regular season conference games following a loss and Boston College has a long history of success on the road under coach Al Skinner. The Eagles are 70-38-6 ATS in regular season road games in Skinner’s 12 seasons. My ratings favor Maryland by 4 points, which is where the line on this game opened, and I’ll take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.2-Stars at +4 or more.
3 Star Selection
SOUTHERN MISS (-7 ½) over Marshall
Southern Miss is coming off a lackluster effort as a big favorite in a non-conference game against Montana State, a 68-60 win as a 15 ½ point favorite, but coach Larry Eustachy tends to take conference games more seriously. In the last 4 seasons Southern Miss is just 12-16-1 ATS against non-conference opponents, but the Golden Eagles are 39-17-1 ATS against fellow Conference USA teams, including 20-4 ATS as a conference favorite (2-1 this season). Marshall, meanwhile, is just 13-24 ATS overall in 2 seasons under coach Donnie Jones (3-11 ATS this season) and the Thundering Herd are just 1-10 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points, including 0-5 ATS this season. In addition to the team trends Southern Miss applies to a very good 208-103-9 ATS home favorite situation and my ratings favor the Eagles by 9 points. Southern Miss has failed to cover in their last 2 games, but Eustachy’s team hasn’t lost 3 consecutive games to the point spread since November of 2005, so I expect a good effort from the Eagles tonight. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points.3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.