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Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Nuggets/Grizzlies UNDER 204

Memphis has scored 91 points or fewer in 9 straight and is 12 of its last 13. Its low scoring has produced 9 unders in its last 12 games and we'll ride this unders machine again tonight. 5 of Denver's last 7 games have gone under the total and 6 of the last 7 meetings in this matchup have gone under the number. Plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 22-3 since 1996. Utilize the Under.

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LT Profits

Kentucky -8

The Kentucky Wildcats are somehow still unranked despite playing as well as any team in the country right now, but they can go a long way toward correcting the pollsters oversight with a nice double-digit road win tonight vs. the Mississippi Rebels.

Kentucky is 11-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in the last 12 games, with the only straight up loss being by three points on the road at Louisville. Their average winning margin during this 12-game stretch is +17.9 points, and they are 4-0 ATS on the road during this run with double-digit wins at Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama.

Their recent success has not been lost on the Pomeroy Ratings, where the Wildcats are ranked number 20, mainly due to a defense that is ninth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also making 56.7 percent of their two-point attempts offensively (fifth in nation) while limiting opponents to an incredible 38.1 percent success rate on twos (second).

Meanwhile, Mississippi is a modest 10-9 straight up, ranking them just 108 by Pomeroy. The Rebels do not force many turnovers (rank 277) and they allow too many offensive rebounds (303), so we do not see how they can slow the Wildcats down if Kentucky goes on another of their big runs that have become rather routine lately.

Even with this game in Oxford, this contest could get out of hand quickly as we see Kentucky rolling to another double-digit road win.

Pick: Kentucky -8 

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THE GOLD SHEET

ORLANDO 109 - Indiana 92—After getting pushed into OT at Conseco Fieldhouse Nov. 21, Orlando made sure it was properly focused in 110-96 cruise past Indiana at Amway Arena eight nights later. Pacers had no answer for Dwight Howard (32 points & 21 boards) in 2nd meeting, using four different defenders and numerous combinations on “Superman” to no avail. Hot Magic has won and covered last 6 thru Jan. 21. 08-Orl -2 100-98 (OT-203), ORL -7' 110-96 (203); 07-Ind +8 115-109 (212), Orl -3' 121-115 (214), ORL -10' 122-111 (221)


CLEVELAND 106 - Sacramento 81—Oddsmakers might consider how close Sacto played Cleveland last season when Kings covered both meetings (2 and 4-point decisions)...but they’re still liable to make Cavs an exorbitant favorite. Which might not be a problem for LeBron & Co., considering Cavs’ 12-3 chalk mark at “The Q” entering this contest. 07-Cle -6 93-91 (193), CLE -7' 97-93 (191)


Denver 107 - MEMPHIS 93—Trade rumors running rampant in Memphis (G Mike Conley supposedly on block), as Grizzlies continue in meltdown mode,dropping 9 of last 10 SU and failing to cover 8 of those last 10 thru Jan. 18. And in Memphis’ last five consecutive losses thru Jan. 18, Grizzlies have held the lead exactly once. Denver still likely to be without Carmelo Anthony (fractured hand) for another week or so, and remember that ‘Melo led Nuggets scorers with 24 in 100-90 win over Memphis back on Nov. 9. 08-DEN -8’ 100-90 (198); 07-Den -3 106-102 (216), DEN -16 108-86 (226), Den -8' 120-106 (231), DEN -15 120-111 (232)


UTAH 95 - San Antonio 86—Payback is definitely on Utah’s mind after numbing 119-94 beating it absorbed from S.A. back on Nov. 21. And Jazz can’t use excuse of no injured Carlos Boozer or Deron Williams that night, as Spurs were also shorthanded (backcourt of Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili was also sidelined). Boozer still likely to be out of action, but Jazz still keeping their heads above water, winning 5 of last 7 thru Jan. 19. 08-SAN -4' 119-94 (174); 07-SAN -1 104-98 (201), UTAH -2' 97-91 (194), UTAH -3 90-64 (197), SAN -4' 109-80 (184)


LA LAKERS 104 - Charlotte 98—L.A. not so reliable laying points lately at Staples Center, dropping last 3, and 8 of last 11 spread decisions as home chalk. Meanwhile, Charlotte offering good value as road dog (12-5 vs. line in role thru Jan. 24), and remember that Bobcats (a 14-point dog!) shocked Lake Show at Staples a year ago. 07-La -8' 106-97 (209), Cha +14 108-95 (211)

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THE GOLD SHEET

WESTERN MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 1 to 2—07-Wmu -4 100-90 (2OT)
GEORGE MASON over Delaware by 8 to 11—07-DEL +6 73-68 (OT), GMU -15 70-58
KENT ST. over Eastern Michigan by 13 to 16—07-Ksu -5 77-67
NORTH CAROLINA ST. over Miami-Florida by 3 to 5—07-NCS -1' 79-77 (OT), Mia -5 63-50 (CT)

Kentucky 75 - MISSISSIPPI 62—Gears beginning to mesh nicely for Billy Gillispie’s UK bunch that is now confident it can succeed on SEC trail after impressive recent road romps at Tennessee (when G Jodie Meeks scored aschool-record 54 points!) and Georgia. Dynamic inside-outside combo of Meeks & 6-9 soph frontliner Patterson (18.4 ppg) too much for Ole Miss, still on short rations minus star G Warren and further depleted in backcourt with Gs Gaskins & Polynice also on shelf. 07-KY -5 58-54

MARYLAND over Boston College by 4 to 6—07-Bc +6 81-78, Mary -1 70-65, Bc +5' 71-68 (CT-neut.)
WYOMING over Air Force by 12 to 15—07-Afa +2' 64-62 (OT), AFA -7 72-66
CREIGHTON over Indiana St. by 14 to 17—08-Cre -9' 79-61; 07-ISU +3 62-54, CRE -12' 86-69
Purdue over WISCONSIN by 1 to 3—08-PUR -6 65-51; 07-PUR +1' 60-56,Pur +10 72-67
BAYLOR over Texas by 1 to 2—07-TEX -7 80-72, Tex +1' 82-77
SOUTHERN MISS over Marshall by 6 to 8—07-Usm +2' 63-58
VA. COMMONWEALTH over Northeastern by 4 to 6—07-Vcu -3 66-62
UTAH over Byu by 7 to 10—07-Byu +3 55-52, BYU -7' 67-59
Iowa State over COLORADO 2 to 4—07-ISU -6 57-41, COLO -3 67-55

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Dwayne Bryant

Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Lakers are coming off a huge revenge win against the Spurs and could be a bit flat tonight. The last time the Lakers came off a big win was on Wednesday. They were coming off a 105-88 pounding of LeBron and the Cavs. They responded by coasting to an 11-point win over the lowly Clippers as 16-point chalk. Charlotte is playing some solid basketball right now. The Bobcats are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. And believe it or not, Charlotte has actually won four of the last five in this series, including the last two in LA. The Lakers last three wins in this series have come by a grand total of just 11 points.

I'll take the Charlotte Bobcats +11


Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

Denver is coming off two impressive wins and has dominated this series (7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings). So on the surface, this looks like it should be an easy Denver win. And the public thinks so too, as 92% of the bets have come in on Denver at the time of this writing. Yet the line has swung 1.5 points in Memphis' favor. So it appears the "smart money" is on Memphis. I happen to agree.

Denver is coming off wins by 19 over Sacramento and 20 over Utah. On the flip side, Memphis has dropped nine straight both SU and ATS. Throw in the recent series history and it's easy to see why the public is hammering Denver. But this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. Off two impressive wins and with a tough conference foe (New Orleans) up next, it'd be easy for them to get caught looking past this Memphis team which they've owned. But Memphis will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight in their first game under new head coach Lionel Hollins. "I think it's a fresh start for a lot of guys," said point guard Mike Conley. "It's a chance for some people to get to redeem themselves. Everybody wants to play well for the new coach. You know, show him what you can do." They're catching Denver at the right time to do just that.

I'll take the Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Smart Money
CBB
  #712 Western Michigan +1.0


Smart Money
NBA
  #707 UNDER 193 San Antonio 

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Vegas Experts

Northeastern at Virginia Commonwealth

Expect homecourt advantage to play a significant role this evening as Northeastern is a lousy 9 for 29 at the betting window, on the road, when playing against a team with a winning record. They are just 5-16 ATS on the road after being a road underdog in their previous game. A big reason for these road woes is that N'eastern only scores 60 PPG in away games. VCU allows even less than that at home, yielding just 59.3 PPG. They are 8-1 in CAA play and 9-0 at home.

Play on: Virginia Commonwealth

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Orlando Magic -9

The Magic has lost 2 straight and because of that they won't get caught looking ahead to Cleveland tonight. Orlando is already 2-0 against the Pacers this season and cleaned their clock by 14 in its other home meeting. The Pacers have really struggled on the road, having lost 5 straight away from home to fall to 6-18 on the season. The Magic are 16-4 at home and they will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. System: Play On Home teams (ORLANDO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less. This system is 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points!

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SPORTS ADVISORS

(16) Purdue (15-4, 7-8 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-7, 7-9-1 ATS)

Purdue shoots for its fifth straight victory and a regular-season sweep of the Badgers when it treks to the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with ice-cold Wisconsin.

The Boilermakers’ winning streak began with a 65-52 rout of the Badgers as a six-point home favorite back on Jan. 11. They followed that with a narrow two-point win at Northwestern, but have since posted a pair of easy wins against Iowa (75-53 as a 12½-point home favorite) and Minnesota (70-62 as a one-point road pup Saturday).  Purdue is allowing just 57 points per game during its current winning streak.

While the Boilermakers have won four in a row, Wisconsin has dropped four straight (0-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 64-57 setback at Illinois, pushing as a seven-point underdog. After giving up an average of 55.7 ppg in their first three conference games (all wins), the Badgers have allowed 70 ppg during their losing skid.

Purdue started the conference season 0-2 SU and ATS, but is now 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) against Big Ten opponents. Conversely, the Badgers began conference play 3-0 (2-1 ATS) but are now 3-4 (2-4-1 ATS).

Including the victory over Wisconsin earlier this month, the Boilermakers have won three straight in this series and they’re 6-0 ATS in the last six, including three straight spread-covers at the Kohl Center (1-2 SU). Last year, Purdue went to Madison and prevailed 72-67 as a 10-point underdog. The pup has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head clashes between these schools.

Purdue is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 on the road and 25-9-1 against the Big Ten, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover. Wisconsin carries negative pointspread streaks of 1-4-1 overall (all against winning teams), 1-6 on Tuesday and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Also, the Badgers are now 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS against ranked opponents.

The over is on stretches of 4-1 for Wisconsin at home, 5-1 for the Boilermakers overall, 4-1 for the Boilermakers on the road and 6-1 for the Boilermakers in Big Ten play. Conversely, the under is 5-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, with the Jan. 11 contest at Purdue staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE


(11) Texas (14-4, 7-8 ATS) at Baylor (15-4, 6-5 ATS)

Texas returns to the road for the third time in four games when it invades the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, looking for its 23rd consecutive victory over Baylor.

The Longhorns are coming off easy wins over Texas Tech (71-49) and Texas A&M (67-58), but they failed to cash as a 12-point home chalk in Saturday’s victory over the Aggies. Texas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games, during which it has averaged just 67.4 ppg while shooting 39.8 percent from the field (22.7 percent from three-point range).

Baylor fell out of the Top 25 once again this week after getting crushed 95-76 at Oklahoma as a seven-point road underdog, ending a modest two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bears have surrendered 85, 87, 92 and 95 points in their four losses while giving up just 65 ppg in their 15 victories.

The Longhorns are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in Big 12 play (1-1 SU and ATS on the road), while Baylor is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in conference (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at home).

Texas struggled to an 82-77 victory in its trip to Waco last season, but cashed as a 1½-point road underdog for its 22nd straight win in this rivalry as it also improved to 7-2 ATS in its last nine games at Baylor. The Longhorns cashed in both meetings last year after the Bears went 3-0 ATS in three clashes in 2007. Despite Texas’ dominance in this rivalry, the last five battles have been decided by an average of just 5.4 points per game after the ‘Horns won the previous five by an average of 21.2 ppg.

Baylor is 11-1 on its home court, but only four of those have been lined games, and it has gone 2-2 ATS. Because of the weak caliber of opponents, the Bears are outscoring their visitors by 18 ppg (86-68). Meanwhile, Texas is 5-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-court situations, putting up just 67.2 ppg (39.2 percent shooting) and allowing 65.8 ppg (41.3 percent shooting).

Although the Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, they’re 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday contests. Baylor is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven games on Tuesday and its last seven following a SU defeat.

For the high-scoring Bears, the over is on stretches of 22-7 overall, 10-4 at home, 37-16 in Big 12 action, 7-2 on Tuesday, 9-2 after a SU loss and 19-7 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five versus winning teams and 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry (2-0 last year).

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NBA

San Antonio (29-14, 19-23-1 ATS) at Utah (25-20, 22-23 ATS)

The Spurs, who are in the midst of a stretch where they will play 11 of 12 games on the road, pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for the first time this season as they take on the struggling Jazz.

San Antonio kicked off a three-game road swing with Sunday’s 99-85 loss at the Lakers, ending a four-game SU winning streak and dropping to 2-6 ATS in its last eight as it fell way short as a 7½-point road underdog. The Spurs short just 37.5 percent from the field and missed 18 of 23 tries from three-point range, while allowing Los Angeles to connect on 46.4 percent of its shots, including 7 of 17 from beyond the arc.

Utah has lost three in a row and four of its last six, and it is also mired in an 1-6 ATS nosedive, including four consecutive non-covers coming into this game. One night after getting clipped by the Cavaliers in a 102-97 home loss as a three-point underdog, the Jazz on Sunday went to Denver and got steamrolled 117-97 as an eight-point road underdog.

Utah’s defense has been nonexistent of late, giving up an average of 109.8 points per game over the last five contests and allowing 107 or more in seven of its last eight outings. However, the Jazz have scored at least 97 points in 14 of 15 games, hitting triple digits nine times during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Spurs have held five straight opponents under 100 points, allowing just 88.4 ppg, but they’ve also scored less than 100 in six straight contests, putting up only 90.5 ppg.

San Antonio smoked the Jazz 119-94 as a 4½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting back on Nov. 21. Going back to the 2007 Western Conference finals – which the Spurs won in five games – the home team is on a 9-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and the SU winner has cashed in all 10 of those contests. Additionally, the host has cashed in 17 of the last 21 meetings, and the favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26.

In addition to being 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall, San Antonio is stuck in pointspread funks of 2-6 against winning teams, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest, 11-23 as a road underdog and 7-16 ATS as a road ‘dog of less than five points.

Although the Jazz have failed to cash in five straight overall and four of their last five as a favorite, they are on positive ATS runs of 50-24-2 as a home chalk, 19-7-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 10-3 when playing on one day of rest and 20-8 versus the Southwest Division.

For Utah, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home 4-1 as a favorite, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 8-2 against the Southwest Division and 5-1 when going on one day of rest. Also, the over is 6-2-1 in the Spurs’ last nine games against the Northwest Division, but otherwise San Antonio carries nothing but “under” trends into this game, including 5-0 overall, 41-19-1 on the road, 24-8-1 as an underdog, 8-2 as a ‘dog of less than five points, 44-21 after a SU loss and 7-2-1 on Tuesday.

Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this series, but six of the last eight clashes in Salt Lake have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE:  UTAH

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

Today's Selection

Monday winner on the Timberwolves I am now 11-4 with my last 15 freebie winners, including 3 straight complimentary winners.

Things look good for the Cowboys to make it two straight cover wins at home as they face a bad Air Force on the high plains tonight.  After all given that Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 straight at home this season and winning by an average 10.4 points per game in those 12 games thanks to averaging 82 ppg I just don’t see the Falcons keeping things close.  Not when for Air Force gone are the glory days as the Falcons minus a few coaches over the years they are back to the cellar of the league a sitting at 0-5 SU/ATS this year, including a pair of MWC road loses by an average 18 points per game. Flat out given how dominate the Cowboys are this year at home mixed in with how back Air Force is this season I look for nothing but a Wyoming blowout in Laramie tonight.

All Wyoming minus the home points!

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Today's Free Pick is Delaware +12.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Purdue at WISCONSIN -1

I know plenty of bettors have jumped off this Wisconsin bandwagon, but truth be told: now is the time to bet them, as we're getting a ton of value with them tonight at the Kohl Center.

Several reasons to like the Badgers here, but let's start with the most obvious, the revenge angle. Just a couple weeks ago the Boilermakers roughed up the Badgers 65-52, and now its payback time! The final score of that contest was deceiving, because the free throw disparity was bordering on ridiculous (Wisky 6 attempts ; Purdue 19 attempts - I've heard of home court advantage but are you serious?!) Make no mistake, the zebras will be a little more even tonight at the Kohl Center, and that could very well be the difference.

Secondly, its no secret the Badgers have lost 4 straight, and are absoutely desperate for a win. Remember guys, this is the same team that almost beat Texas, beat a good Penn State team, and routed a decent Northwestern team all in this building. Look for them to regroup and come out firing tonight at home!

Finally, from a trend standpoint, the home team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings! Not only that, but did you know the Boilermakers are only 2-4 ATS on the road this season? Long story short, this is Wisconsin best chance at redemption, as a win here would avenge their earlier loss and get them back on track. Badgers circle the wagons at home Tuesday night!

Take Wisconsin over Purdue in this college hoops match up.

1* WISCONSIN

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

Charlotte Bobcats at L.A. Lakers Lakers

The hot Los Angeles Lakers go for their fifth straight win tonight when they host the Charlotte Bobcats at Staples Center. Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 17games overall, but ironically the highest scoring team in the league has had problems in the past clashes against the struggling Charlotte Bobcats, the worst offensive team in the league. The Bobcats have won four of their last five meetings versus the Lakers, including the last two at Staples Center, going 4-1 ATS.In all probability, the Bobcats will continue to be a thorn for the Lakers. Charlotte is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road and is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus the Lakers. Take the points!

Charlotte Bobcats +11


Gina

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies

The struggling Memphis Grizzlies have dropped their last nine games and its last five versus the Denver Nuggets. Go with the Nuggets to overpower and outscore the gloomy Grizzlies. Denver is averaging 105 points per game, while Memphis is averaging 93. The Grizzlies are 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread in their last five games at home and are 2-6 ATS in the last eight contests versus Denver at FedEx Forum.

Denver Nuggets -5½


Mr A

Denver Nuggets -5½
San Antonio Spurs +2

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

LARRY NESS

Texas @ Baylor
PICK: Baylor 

Scott Drew has worked miracles at Baylor, bringing this non-basketball school out of the 'nightmare' of the Dave Bliss era. The Bears won 21 games last season, earning the school's first NCAA bid since 1988. The Bears are 15-4 and unranked at the moment but Baylor spent seven consecutive weeks ranked in the AP top-25 earlier this season, which is quite an accomplishment for a school that had previously spent five weeks in the rankings over the previous 60 years. Baylor averages 82.7 PPG (7th-best) and shoots 48.4 percent as a team, which is predominantly guard-oriented. The 6-8 Rogers (12.3-7.9) starts with four guards and the 6-7 Acy (6.7-4.7) is the only other frontcourt player of note. Baylor's strength is its perimeter game, featuring Jerrells (17.6-4.6-5.8), Dunn (16.9-4.5), Dugat (12.4-3.6) and Carter (10.6-3.30-3.0). The Bears can't be "full of confidence" entering this game against No. 11 Texas, as they've lost two of their last four games and their most recent loss, was a 95-76 blowout at the hands of Oklahoma. The Bears fell behind by 27 at the half and shot just 34.6 percent for the game in that 19-point loss. The No. 11 Longhorns come in 14-4 and have beaten the Bears 22 straight times over 11 years. DJ Augsutin (19.2-5.8 APG) left early for the NBA but Abrams (16.9) returned to the Texas backcourt, with Mason (6.9-4.0-5.8 APG) joining him as a starter. The 6-7 James (15.6-8.2) is a terrific player plus the 6-7 Johnson, who was never really 100 percent LY as a freshman, has averaged 11.3 PPG and 6.9 RPG. The 6-10 Atchley (5.9-3.8) has seen his production slip from LY (9.5-5.3) but the 6-10 Pittman (8.4-4.5) has made up for that, as he averaged just 2.8-2.4 LY. Texas could be vulnerable in this one, as over its last eight games, is a modest 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS. Abrams averaged 20.9 PPG on 44.7 percent shooting in his first 10 games but is scoring only 11.9 PPG while shooting a dismal 29.2 percent over his last eight. The Longhorns can also struggle at the FT line, with Johnson connecting on 67.5 percent, James just 64.1 percent and Mason making only 45.7 percent (ouch!). Baylor's "11-year itch" is over, as the Bears 'scratch that itch' and beat the Longhorns (finally!) tonight in Waco. 

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Jrtips

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS vs. LA LAKERS

The Los Angeles Lakers(35-8) defeated the San Antonio Spurs 99-85 Sunday and tonight they play the Charlotte Bobcats who they have had a suprisinly tough time against. The Lakers have struggled recently against the Bobcats (18-26), who haven't won more than 33 games in any of their previous four seasons. Los Angeles has split eight all-time meetings with Charlotte and has dropped four of the last five, including the past two at Staples Center.The Bobcats also come in with some confidence after winning five of their last seven although they are coming off a 98-93 road loss to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Charlotte held their previous six opponents to an average of 85.3 points, but they gave up 54 points in the first half on Sunday. The lakers are getting healthy and playing great basketball right now but coach Larry Brown and the Charoltte always play well against them. The Charlotte Bobcats will be up for this game and play tough basketball against a Lakers team that could have a bit of a let down after winning a huge National TV revenge game Sunday against there Western Conference foes. TAKE CHARLOTTE+11

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ANDRE GOMES

CHARLOTTE  at LA LAKERS

I'm well aware the fact that by taking 11 points against a red hot team like the Bobcats lately may be a dangerous bet, however I think that the number is listed for some reason as the bookmakers don't want to turn the Lakers a big target tonight and until now the public is hitting the dog in a 60/40 proposition. Saying that, I think the Lakers will win this baby by at least 15 points and I'll explain why.

This isn't a typical game where the big favorite will overlook the lowly team, no! And the big reason for that is the fact that the Bobcats are 4-4 SU all time against the Lakers and 4-1 L5 games! Last season the Lakers suffered at home an embarrassment loss against them 95-108, a loss so unacceptable that Lakers Coach Phil Jackson started his postgame news conference by saying, "I can't explain it, so don't ask me any questions."

So this is a revenge game for the Lakers and we have a good reason to expect their best game tonight, this game will be their last home game before the longest road trip of the season, the good news is that the trip only starts next Friday so we will have a focused team on tonight's game.

The Lakers easily won the last 4 games (two of their opponents were power clubs: Cavs and the Spurs) and in all the 4 wins they won by double digits points. One of the reasons for such blowouts is the fact that they are healthy again, against the Spurs PG Jordan Farmar who was the last inactivated players returned to action and scored 14 points for a 5-7 FG performance. So the Lakers will have all the weapons for tonight's game.

The X factor of this game in my opinion will be the bench. I expect the Lakers to open a gap during the game and the Bobcats won't be able to stormed back, the reason is simple: they don't have a quality bench! In the last 3 games their bench averaged only 17.2 ppg and this isn't a surprise, after alll playing with Diop, Singletary, Morrison or Shannon Brown I would be surprised if they scored a bunch of points. Well, with all the players healthy again we cannot say the same thing about the Lakers, their bench is the best bench of the league and they won't let the Bobcats bite the Lakers late on the game.

The Bobcats are playing a great basketball but essentially at home, on the road the story is different as they had huge letdowns like the loss suffered in Milwaukee 75-103 or in Cleveland 81-111. In the last game against the Pacers, they trailed by 13 points in the third quarter but they rallied back later against a team who can't hold any lead, this will not happen against the Lakers. I think this will be a blowout game and that's why I'm taking the Lakers in here.

Regular Play on Lakers (-11) 

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Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play Of The Month)

Memphis/ Denver Under 202: The Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games as a favorite, while the Under is 11-2 in Grizzlies last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 8-2 in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. Granted the 8 of the last 10 in this series has been a score fest, but all 8 that scored over 200 where in a different year than this, while the only matchup between these teams this year put up just 190 points. In their last 12 game Memphis has scored over 100 points just once, on their way to averaging just 87.3 ppg over that stretch. Not one of those 12 games put more than 200 points on the board, while their 8 home games over that stretch have averaged just 183.8 ppg. Overall this year Grizzlie games have averaged just 192.1 ppg, while their home games have averaged just 190.5 ppg. Denver?s offense is up a bit since the loss of Carmelo, but their defense has picked up in his absence. The Under is 5-2 in the 7 games without him. Yes Denver can score, but that?s mostly at home and now that are on the road playing a team that has no shot of matching them point for point. Look for Memphis to slow the game down and keep the final score in the 180?s.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The Under is 0-17 when Memphis is seeking same season revenge for a loss in which they committed at least 30 fouls in the game. Average points scored is 179 ppg overall, including 175.4 ppg if at home.


3 UNIT PLAY

Indiana/ Orlando Under 215: The Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 overall, while the Under is 10-1 in Magic last 11 games playing on 2 days rest and 8-1 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. This year when you think of Indiana you think of high scoring affairs, but that has not been true of late. Indiana games overall this year have averaged 110.3 ppg, but in their last 5 that number dips to 199.6 ppg. The Pacers offense seems to have been found out of late as they have averaged just 96.5 ppg in their last 4 games. 3 of those games were vs. top 10 scoring defenses and tonight they take on an Orlando defense that is 7th in scoring (93.9 ppg), 3rd in FG% (42.8%) and 1st in 3pt FG % (33.4%). Indiana will have problems getting their points tonight. On the flipside the Magic are 8th in scoring at 101.7 ppg, but they actually score less at home, putting up 99.6 ppg on their home floor. Orlando home games have averaged just 189.5 ppg and that is 26 points less than tonight?s total, plus their last 5 overall have averaged 204.4 ppg, while Indiana?s last 5 have put up just 199.6 ppg. Not a whole lot here to make me think this game will even approach 210, let alone 215. Take the under here.


2 UNIT PLAY

UTAH -1.5 over San Antonio: The Spurs are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah, while the Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Southwest, plus host is 17-4 ATS the last 21 meetings. The Spurs are looking to get back on track after a bad loss to the Lakers on Sunday, but I?m not sure a trip to Salt Lake is the best way to expect to get back on track. Yes the Spurs have gone 5-4 in their last 9 road game, but only 2 of the wins were vs. winning teams and their offense has really struggled in those 9 games, putting up just 87.1 ppg in the process, while not scoring more than 92 points in any game. Now they head to Utah where the Jazz have a 17-5 mark and have put up 105 ppg, while allowing just 96.3 ppg. The Jazz have struggled a bit lately, but most of that was on the road and now they are home where they have won 8 of 9 with 4 of those wins vs. winning teams. The Spurs are not the same team as they were last year and they don?t have enough firepower or defense to stay with the Jazz in this one.


1 UNIT PLAY

Charlotte +11 over LA LAKERS

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