Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Kansas -7

Since losing at Michigan State, the Jayhawks have responded by thumping each of their next three opponents. ISU has been strong at Hilton this season, but a young,hungry Jayhawks team will be too much Saturday. KU has won 4 straight over the last 3 seasons, winning each of the last 3 by double digits. Kansas is 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 80.3 to 60.1. The Jayhawks struggled on the road early against good teams but they are playing with a lot of confidence now and ready to keep rolling. Lay the points.

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#1 Sports

UCLA @ Washignton


UCLA (14-3, 4-1 PAC10) The Bruins were positively stymied last Saturday at Pauley Pavilion by Arizona State’s match up zone defense. UCLA were held scoreless in the final 8:06 of regulation and managed little more in overtime before finally falling 58-61 to end their 9-game win streak. Usually it’s the defense of Coach Ben Howland’s (140-48 in 6th season in Los Angeles) crew that turns opposing offenses inside out with just 58.6 points allowed per game on 43.4 % shooting from the field and 30.7 % behind the arc. Bringing most of the heat is the squad’s leading scorer and assist man 6’0” senior PG Darren Collison (14.9p, 2.4r, 5.4a) with 30 of the team’s 146 steals (vs. just 76 allowed). Your basic coach-on-the-court kind of kid, Collison (22 of 50 from 3-point, 60 of 63 from the line) drives an offensive attack that racks 75.5 points per game on deadly shooting marks of 49.7% from the field and 37.4% from downtown and is one of three serious deep threats along with fellow starter 6’5” 220 senior G/F Josh Shipp (12.1p, 2.9r, 20 of 56 from 3-point) and designated bomber off the bench 6’5” 200 junior G/F Michael Roll (7.9p, 30 of 57 from 3-point). Losing players like Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbaha Moute, and Russell Westbrook from the squad than earned UCLA’s 3rd consecutive Conference Championship as well as the schools 3rd consecutive Final Four appearance was going to be tough but Coach Howland’s inking of the best recruiting class in the nation doesn’t hurt. Freshmen 6’8” 235 F Drew Gordon (3.9p, 3.9r) and 6’5 180 G Malcolm Lee (4.8p, 1.6r, 1.0a) - who missed the last 4 games with a knee injury but should return this week - have been decent contributors while 6’3” freshman G Jrue Holiday (9.6p, 3.8r, 2.9a) was ready enough on day one to start all 17 games this season. Rounding out the starting lineup and bringing an international flavor to the blocks are 6’9” 216 junior F Nikola Dragovic (7.1p, 3.4r) from Serbia and 6’9” 245 senior C Alfred Aboya (9.1p, 5.6r) from Cameroon - each no better than decent players but do bring plenty of experience to a squad that needs all it can get with 8 freshmen on the 18-man roster. Keep your eyes on UCLA’s game at Washington State Thursday night for how the Bruin’s offense responds after being so frustrated last trip out.

Washington (13-4, 4-1 PAC 10) The Huskies thunder back home after bagging a couple of dominating road wins over Oregon (84-67) and Oregon State (85-59) in which Coach Lorenzo Romar’s (132-76 in 7th season at Seattle) group really got their shooting grooved with a combined 65 makes in 123 tries. And speaking of Romar, this dude is a character. OK, there was the college career that included at least a few schools including Washington and the five-year NBA career with Golden State but that was just the beginning of his playing days. For many years, Coach Romar played for Athletes in Action (for the younger out there, AIA is the athletic arm of Campus Crusade for Christ) and on one legendary night in 1992 - at age 34, mind you - he schooled Michigan’s National Championship Runner-Up Fab Five team by pouring in 45 points! Anyway after a couple of down years following their back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances in ’04-’06, Washington is back in conference contention behind dominating rebounding, points in the paint, and a freshman guard with both a familiar name and a familiar game. 5’8” freshman G Isaiah Thomas (15.8p, 3.0r, 3.2a) can flat-out light it up but is of no relation to the former Pistons star other than his father had to name him such after losing a bet during the 1989 Los Angeles/Detroit NBA Finals. Now that’s my kind of parenting! Thomas’s back court mate, 5’11” senior G Justin Dentmon (13.8p, 2.9r, 2.5a), can also fly and is Washington’s best 3-point threat at 26 of 65 but the strength of this unit is clearly found on the blocks. 6’6” 215 junior F Quincy Pondexter (10.0p, 6.0r), 6’8” freshman F Darnell Gant (3.5p, 3.8r), and the Huskies’ all-time leading rebounder 6’7” 255 senior F Jon Brockman (15.8p, 10.7r) have led the way for the nation’s best board margin at +11.6 per game while 6’9” 235 sophomore F Matt Bryan-Amaning (8.6p, 5.5r, 17 blocks) is becoming a force off the bench. This Londoner looked a little lost at times last season but is coming off his best game with 12 points and 9 boards against the Beavers. The Huskies host USC Thursday.

SELECTION: A rebounding edge combined with home court typically presents a pretty good situation. The lack of size at the guard position for the Huskies could be an issue - especially if Michael Roll gets on one from behind the arc - but we still think that Arizona State gave the rest of the PAC 10 the plan to stop the Bruins. Take Washington Saturday at Bank of America Arena.

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Mike Wynn

Connecticut @ Notre Dame

There are no easies in the deep and talented Big East Conference, but this game figures to be a tough road test for the number 3 Connecticut Huskies. Notre Dame ranked 19th in the country holds the longest home win streak in the country at 45 games, including 20 straight in Big East play. So lets take a look at both teams here and we’ll start with Connecticut.

Connecticut 16-1 at the time of this writing is ranked third in the country with the only loss at home to Georgetown back on December 29th. While Connecticut is not a real deep team this season, they are talented. Huskies have 5 players averaging double digits led by senior forward Jeff Adrien’s 14.5 a game. Overall the Huskies are a veteran team with veteran guards which is a big plus in college basketball, but they also have a very good guard in freshmen Kemba Walker who averages 10.2 points a game. Huskies also have a big man in 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet averaging 3.7 blocks and 10.5 rebounds a game to round out a very solid line up. Connecticut has the athletes to compete with anybody in the country and they should be a major factor in the Big East race this season.

Notre Dame 12-5 this season and ranked 19th in the country, and they do own the longest home court win streak in the country at 45 games. Fighting Irish win streak will get a severe test here against Connecticut Saturday. Notre Dame’s lack of depth will a concern as the season goes on, and especially come tournament time, but for this game Saturday night they should be well rested having not played in a week. Notre Dame does lack depth and they have 4 starters averaging 30+ minutes per game this season. Junior Luke Harangody leads the Irish averaging 24.8 points and 12.9 rebounds per game, and he is the only real inside threat the Irish have. On perimeter the Irish have guys who can fill it up though. Guards McAlarney & Ayers are shooting three pointers at 48% & 45% respectfully, and if Notre Dame is knocking down threes they are a tough team to beat.

Obviously home cooking helps when you’re a perimeter shooting team like Notre Dame, but Connecticut’s athleticism and speed will allow them to guard the perimeter. Early line for this game has Connecticut a small 1 or 2 point favorite on the road, but I think Notre Dame will keep their home win streak intact. A full week to prepare and freshen up the legs, and a home crowd that should be dynamite will help Notre Dame immensely in this one. We’ll advise taking Notre Dame in this one as a dog or pick, but would be very hesitant to lay any points.

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Who2Beton

Utah State/Hawaii

The Utah State Aggies leads the country in offensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, but they do not play at a fast pace, and we are looking for an Under tonight vs. a mediocre at best Hawaii Warriors team.

Besides, we do not feel that Hawaii will hold up its end of the bargain for this game to go Over. After all, the Warriors offense has actually gotten worse since the beginning of conference play, as Hawaii is averaging just 57.0 points per game in their last five games while shooting a dismal 40.2 percent from the floor. Furthermore, they are hitting just 69.4 percent of their free throws during this time, negating the chances of scoring many points with the clock stopped.

Now Utah State is averaging 71.9 points per play, and the Aggies currently have a 13-game winning streak. That said, so not overlook their defense either, as they are allowing only 59.4 points per game on just 41.6 percent shooting for the season, and that scoring figure drops to 57.6 points in the last five games.

Thus, we simply do not see Hawaii getting out of the 50s here, which should basically ensure a rather safe Under.

Pick: Utah State/Hawaii Under 129

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Vegas Experts

Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been a hard team to figure out as of late. On Wednesday, they crushed Dallas by 34 at home. Last night, they were clobbered in Atlanta by 30. Which Milwaukee team will show up tonight? Probably the "good" version as we certainly have Sacramento figured out. The Kings stink, having failed to cash in three straight losses. They are allowing a staggering 108 PPG on the road this season where they have lost 18 of 21 games. Lay the points

Play on: Milwaukee

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Xavier @ LSU
PICK: LSU 

Xavier won 30 games last year and advanced to the Elite 8. The strength of the team was its depth and balance and while some key players are gone from last year, this year's team is much the same in its depth and balance. Nine players are making significant contributions with the key players being the 6-8 Brown (13.8-5.3) and two 6-6 swingmen, Raymond (11.7-4.1) and Anderson (10.8-5.6). Xavier opened 9-0 before getting thumped 82-64 by Duke in the Meadowlands on Dec 20. Three days later, Butler came to Cincinnati and beat the Musketeers 74-65 but the team hasn't lost since. The 15th-ranked Musketeers (16-2) go for their eighth straight victory on Saturday as they take on a 15-3 LSU team which has won 17 consecutive home games at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Trent Johnson left Stanford ("his dream job") to come to Baton Rogue and few thought much of LSU's prospects this year. The Tigers were just 13-18 last year (6-10 in the SEC) but LSU looks to be "for real" this season. Swingman Marcus Thornton (18.3-4.9) is the team's leading scorer and the return to health of the 6-7 Mitchell (15.7-6.2) has been HUGE. Mitchell was freshman when LSU made its Final Four (2006) run but last year, he was lost to an injury after just three games. The backcourt is manned by Spencer (12.0) and Temple (7.3-4.7-4.2) plus the 6-11 Johnson (7.8-7.7) rounds out the team's starting-five at center. LSU is 14-0 at home this year, with its average margin of victory being 20.3 PPG. However, Johnson knows that Sean Miller's Xavier team presents a significant challenge. I'm betting that the surprising Tigers are up to that challenge. Take LSU.

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Wunderdog

Depaul at Marquette
Pick: Depaul +16.5

This is a big rivalry game between these two that goes back a long time. The Golden Eagles are out of the gate at 12-0 at home, but this is a huge number to ask them to cover in a rivalry game, especially with a date at Notre Dame to follow. The Blue Demons are down this season, but not out and have managed to hold seven of their last 10 opponents to 70 points or less, which makes this number take on an even bigger look. While the rivalry will get the DePaul "A" game here, I am not sure the same interest will be held by the Golden Eagles. DePaul hangs inside the number here.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Villanova -6 over SOUTH FLORIDA

The Wildcats are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite, while the Bulls are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Bukks are just 2-4 in the Big east with both wins coming over Depaul. Nova is just 2-3 in the conference, but have taken UConn, louisville and Marquette all to the wire. The ats are the better squad here and will take this one easily.


POWER ANGLE PLAY

Boston College/ NC State Over 139

The Over is 18-7 in Wolfpack last 25 vs. Atlantic Coast, while the Over is 20-6 in Eagles last 26 home games. BC is putting up 76.6 ppg and allowing 69.8 ppg. Their home games have averaged 147.7 ppg on the year. The Wolfpacks's offense hasn't been great this year, but they still put 70.1 ppg on the board and are facing a BC defense that has allowed 79.4 ppg in their last 5. State's defense has been tough this year, but BC has scored 77.9 ppg at home and will get more than enough to push this one over the Total.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The OVER is 10-0 in BC's last 10 games as a home fav of 6 or less or a pick. Average points scored is 156.1 ppg.


2 UNIT PLAY

ARKANSAS -5 over Auburn

The Tigers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southeastern, while the Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, plus the host is 6-2 ATS the last 8. Which Arkansas RTeam will show up in this one? The one that beat Texas and Oklahoma right here or the one that is 0-3 in the SEC. I'm thinking the first team. Arkansas has outscored thier home opponents by 13.4 ppg, while Auburn has been outscored by 6.5 ppg on the road.Nuff said.


1 UNIT PLAY

Maryland +16 over DUKE

The Terrapins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win, while the Blue Devils are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Atlantic Coast. In the last 5 meetings Maryland has won 2 outright, while the 3 that Duke won have all been by 12 or less points. Maryland always plays Duke tough and will be able to keep this one close as well.

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3DAILY WINNERS

NBA

2* Cleveland (+3)


CBB 

3* Arkansas (-4) – UNLV (-4)

2* Nebraska (-4) – Niagara (+7.5) – So. Flor. (+6.5)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

ROCKETMAN

Wisconsin @ Illinois 
Play: 1* Wisconsin +6.5

Wisconsin is 19-8 ATS on the road the past 3 years.  Wisconsin is allowing only 61.1. points per game overall this year.  Wisconsin is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS overall vs Illinois the past 3 years.  Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.  Badgers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.  Badgers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.  Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  Badgers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Badgers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Illinois.  Badgers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  We'll recommend a small play on Wisconsin today! 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Kansas @ Iowa State
PICK: Iowa State 

Kansas is less than a year removed from their National Championship in 2008, yet this year’s squad couldn’t be more different. The Jayhawks are 14-4 heading into Saturday, but just 3 of those 17 games came on the road (1-2 record, with the one win coming against Colorado – Probably the worst team in the Big 12). Even when the Jayhawks were great last year, they struggled playing at Iowa State, winning by just 11. They have struggled lately when traveling to ISU, needing overtime to secure a 4-point win in 07; also notched a 5 point win in 05, and losing to the Cyclones in 04. Iowa State is 10-2 at home this season, and we expect them to get the easy cover today vs. an overrated Jayhawk squad.

The Cyclones are coming off probably their worst performance of the year last Saturday when they visited a tough Missouri team. They have had a week off to let that horrible loss sink in and to prepare for Kansas. They were playing very well before that game, winning 5 of 6 with the only loss coming @Texas by 8 points. Four of the Cyclones’ 6 losses were by 8 points or less. We see this as a perfect situation for a bounce back game for the Cyclones.

Iowa State has two players, 6’10’ forward Craig Brackens, guard Diante Garrett; that matchup very well to Kansas’ two best players, guard Sherron Collins, forward Cole Aldrich. Iowa State’s overall defense will give Kansas problems, as they only allow 61 points per game and 38% field goal shooting. Look for Kansas to struggle on the road as they have all season, and for Iowa State to be well-rested and have a great bounce back performance after their struggles in their last game. Go with the Cyclones.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

David Malinsky

Kansas State @ Colorado
PICK: Under

We will let Colorado forward Casey Crawford set the tone for this one - "It's going to be a tough game and a really scrappy game … There's going to be a lot of guys hitting the floor and working hard because both of us are struggling to get a win."And that is exactly what we expect to see – a lot of guys hitting the floor, because there will be loose balls galore in a game in which offensive execution will rival fingernails on a chalkboard. There is a reason why they area a combined 0-7 in Big 12 play, after all, and it almost all comes on the offensive end.

Not only are these two at the bottom of the conference standings in terms of wins and losses, but they are tied at the bottom at 38.4 percent shooting as well. Colorado has more than twice as many turnovers (64) as assists (30) in conference games, and must play without one of the few bright spots, with Ryan Kelley sidelined after scoring 13.0 points per game in Big 12 action. Detailing the Kansas State offensive woes is nothing new for us, having cashed three tickets already against that part of their game (two Sides and a Total). The Wildcats are nearly as bad in assists to turnovers, 68 vs. 36, and only Denis Clemente is scoring in double figures against conference opponents.

There is nothing fluid happening in this game. White State has struggled to score the Wildcats do play intense defense, which challenges an already-struggling Colorado attack. And the Buffaloes play a combination of zones that can befuddle a road team lacking offensive chemistry, and one that has been knocking down 3-pointers at an ugly 29.0 in Big 12 play. With neither side pushing the tempo it also limits the opportunities that will be available anyway, which keeps this one comfortably Under the Total.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays


maddux sports

Today's Free Pick is Oklahoma -7

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Take DePaul +17 over Marquette

DePaul has had their struggles this year, but they always play tough against Marquette. The last two games were within single digits, and I expect this one will stay close as well. Marquette has been solid at home, but I'll take the points and the Blue Demons.


Take Iowa State +8 over Kansas

Take the home team in this match up as the home school in the series has won 5 of the last 5 against the spread. The Cyclones are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as a home dog while Kansas is only 1-2 on the road this year.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Sacramento at Milwaukee   
The Kings (10-33 SU) are just 3-13 against the Eastern Conference and face a Milwaukee team that is 13-5 ATS against teams with a losing record.  The Bucks are the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has Milwaukee favored by 12.  Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-7). 
 
Game 501-502: New York at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.827; Philadelphia 126.206
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 8; 208
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8); Under

Game 503-504: Orlando at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 129.646; Miami 121.219
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 197 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: New Jersey at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 112.336; Memphis 113.509
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 507-508: Sacramento at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 108.378; Milwaukee 120.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 12; 211 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7; 216
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-7); Under

Game 509-510: Cleveland at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.590; Utah 121.970
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 2 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Washington at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.856; Portland 120.626
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 9; 192 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 11; 190
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+11); Over

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

O.C. Dooley

Hofstra +7 at James Madison

Even though Hofstra has been cast as a prohibitive underdog this evening, consider that they have WON SEVEN IN A ROW against James Madison in this series.  In their most recent pair of visits to tonight's location, the Hofstra offense has exploded for point totals of 86 and 98 points respectively.  Considering that Hofstra returned 9 of the top 10 scorers from one year ago, odds are that at the very least they will be able to stay competitive in this primetime contest.  What grabs my attention regarding Hofstra is their excellent DEFENSE which currently is ranked #1 in the Colonial Conference as they have held 13 of 19 opponents to below 35% shooting from the floor.  The Pride are coming off a pair of victories where the defense allowed the opposition to score only 44 and 52 points.  Hofstra also leads their conference averaging a whopping 5.2 BLOCKED SHOTS per contest.  Finally tonight's visiting team has a current #5 national ranking in total rebounds (42.8 per game) and is ranked 2nd in conference in rebound margin (+6.3 per game).  With such strength on both sides of the basketball, one has to wonder why the Pride are getting so many points from the oddsmakers.  My research indicates that Hofstra is a very solid 16-5 ATS the past two years when playing on a SATURDAY.  Check all calendars   

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cbb.auburn @ arkansas-5. the hogs are just better team at home than auburn is on the road and will get it done big, arkansas wins-5.  Charlies Sports

---------------------------------------------------------------------

1/24/09
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount
Prediction: Gonzaga -27
Sports Action 365

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1/24/2009
So Illinois @ Illinois St
Picks: Illinois St -7.5
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