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system plays 45-35-1

system plays 45-35-1

1-1 yesterday



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Re: system plays 45-35-1

I was going to let you know how these plays are formulated.
Before the season starts, I divide the teams by projected wins and put them into 4 groups. Alpha,Beta,Charlie, and Delta. As the season goes, the matchup results are recorded, and a balance point is determined after each group has played each other group at least 5 times. (ex Alpha vs Alpha, Beta vs Alpha, Charlie vs Alpha, and Delta vs Alpha etc.) It is a pain to keep up with, but the trend is to balance over the season. They will hit several balancing points throughout the season, so when you have a positive or negative balance, it gives you a random chance that it will move toward that balancing point. The second stat used is the power ratings, which should get sharper as the season goes. The third stat is the public betting percentage. The 4th stat is line movement, which when I post these could change, and does quite often. Luckily, it has only affected the outcome of a few games. So far this has peaked at 66% and is currently at 56%, so I hope another run is due. Some variables that will affect the outcome, are injuries, coaches getting fired, and back-to-back same teams matchups. I am still trying to tweak this for a higher percentage, but I need more matchups in certain catagories.     

351 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

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