Monday Winners Symposium

Monday Winners Symposium

The beat goes on after we got rid of our dead weight.

Who do the real winners like today?

I am looking at a couple games

Syracuse -13 and Nets/Raptors under 203

What do you guys think?

Michael Cash
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Alright  I'm 1-0 so far so hopefully I keep this small streak going  smile, I'm picking Sacramento -4 over

rthendon
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I like a few today

Knicks +8.5
Bucks+5.5

Youngstown St. +14.5

chmura89
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I did a little study the past two days on fading the public.  I used sportsinsights for my numbers for NFL, NBA, and CBB.  I only looked at games with the public betting on 60% or more.  If you were to put one unit on every game (fading the public), you would be up +15 units.  Granted this is only two days, but those are pretty good numbers for being such a mindless strategy.  Do any of you have any thoughts on this in the long run?  I'm going to give it a try on all NFL, NBA, and CBB games tonight.

chupacabra
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We took a couple calls on this last week and I told that guy just like I'm gonna tell you now. DON'T DO THIS!

I cannot stress enough that public betting info is only one tool to use in handicapping games. You need to look at trends, historical data, line movements, injuries, weather, etc.

There is no way to end up turning a profit long term by using that public betting info as your only means of handicapping.

People love that shit I know, that is why we have it. But you can't use that alone when trying to make picks.

Michael Cash
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Syracuse -13 Looks good but lots of touts and public all over them today  ???

Blade
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Michael Cash wrote:


We took a couple calls on this last week and I told that guy just like I'm gonna tell you now. DON'T DO THIS!

I cannot stress enough that public betting info is only one tool to use in handicapping games. You need to look at trends, historical data, line movements, injuries, weather, etc.

There is no way to end up turning a profit long term by using that public betting info as your only means of handicapping.

People love that shit I know, that is why we have it. But you can't use that alone when trying to make picks.

Thanks Cash!  Don't the handicappers use this info to move the lines in their favor though?  I find it hard to believe Vegas only gets it's profit from the rake.  It just seems like I have been burned way more on the side of the public than against it.
Do you have any long term data to support your resistence to this strategy?  I appreciate your insight on this.  By the way, I'm sorry for posting other websites on this forum.  I understand your desire to keep them anonymous.

chupacabra
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Blade wrote:


Citadel +1½

Wow has this line jumped Citadel is now -2  yikes

Blade
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chupacabra wrote:



Thanks Cash!  Don't the handicappers use this info to move the lines in their favor though?  I find it hard to believe Vegas only gets it's profit from the rake.  It just seems like I have been burned way more on the side of the public than against it.
Do you have any long term data to support your resistence to this strategy?  I appreciate your insight on this.  By the way, I'm sorry for posting other websites on this forum.  I understand your desire to keep them anonymous.

Sports Insights provides us the data for our public betting information and also the feeds for the top 10 public bets. I removed your link to them because having one here without it being coded will mess up our tracking for other links to them we have on the site. In general though we ask you don't post external links but it's no big deal.

Anyway, I've talked a couple different times over the last few weeks about what causes line movement and that it's not based entirely on betting action. I have also talked a lot about how things you may have in your mind about Vegas sports betting can almost never be applied to online sports betting.

Las Vegas is a very sterile place as far as betting is concerned. Between the regulations and the corporations every single sports book in Nevada is more or less exactly the same. The "public" in Las Vegas isn't the same as the "public" online. The public betting data you are using in your analysis is not from Las Vegas sports books and therefore that data cannot be interpreted in the same way. Every online sports books has their own formula for moving lines. You may see 60% 40% but what it takes to move either up or down will differ wildly for book to book.

Unless you fully understand the sources of the information you are using and have some historical information to back up your strategy I would say it would take a genius to be able to figure out how to make predictions based entirely on public betting data.

Also, the public isn't that bad in many sports. The public kicks ass in baseball for one. I remember when online sports books didn't even take baseball bets. The public sucking is a big misconception. The public actually has a respectable win percentage but the public is burdened with juice.

What makes that data exciting also makes it very dangerous without due diligence.

Michael Cash
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So I know I sucked but thats the way life is so...
only one pick mid tenn st.
let me know if i'm way off, thanks

Ducer
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Michael Cash
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my syracuse line is at 10.5 now is the public only on clev st?

Ducer
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Both my games going down in flames at the half  :-

Blade
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9-2 (+7 units) playing the fade so far tonight.  That would be +22 units the last three days if I had played them all.  Wow! yikes  I still have 6 games left on the night.  I will keep you all posted. 

chupacabra
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Got a little back on the halftime on the football game but still a loss for the day  tongue

Blade
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Ended up +2 units on day.  Started out hot, then cooled off a bit.  That would make it +17 units for three days.  Not bad :-

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