Monday Night 'Prime' Selection

Monday Night 'Prime' Selection

Not a huge play here by any means, but looking at this line I smell a trap.  The trap is the line being at 5 is to alluring for experienced bettors and sharps to lay big money on the dog.

With that being said it's tough to back either side tonight with the line being at 5.  However, several things call for an alarm in this situation.  First off, this is a revenge game for the Bills who lost at the Browns last year 0-8 in a similar weather situation as we will see tonight in Buffalo.  Which brings me to my next point.  The weather is going to be Winter like with snow, freezing temperatures, and slippery turf.  This favors the offense in that it's tough for any defense to dig in their heels and get after the QB.  In this situation, you have to back the QB with more experience, by all means Edwards.  The Bills have the better offense, even though this has not been evident the last few weeks.  A home game in prime time should do the trick to get their offense back in gear.  Especially against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  Marshawn Lynch should post 100+ yards with a TD.  Most importantly, the run will set up the pass for a dangerous offense that has been held at bay their last 3 games.  I see a few deep balls in this game that will give the Bills great field position to capitalize on.

Last, this game looks like a trap.  The oddsmakers try different things every week to sucker in bets and this week they installed the Bills as the 4 point favorite (now 5) even though the Bills should clearly win by at least a TD.  It has worked, because 50%+ of the betting public are siding with the underdog Browns and heavy steam bets are coming in on the dogs.  In doing so, they even jacked the price up to now 5 and 5.5 in many places, knowing that last minute experienced bettors and sharps would move big money on the Browns plus the number.

What you must consider is the fact that the Bills are still in playoff contention if they can win 5 of their next 7.  The Browns are mathematically out.  Psychologically, the Browns are beat as indicated by their public grievances by several offensive players reacting towards the poor defensive performance from last week.  Make no mistake, this team is ripping at the seams.  The Bills however have had positive practices all week and are pumped for this home game to get back in the race.  A few TD's early and the Browns will have no chance against a very good defense, one that is underrated for the most part.  More importantly, if the Browns go down by a TD or more, they will give up. 

The play tonight is with the Bills -5 as they win this game in the snow at home by at least a TD.

Samson Prime
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