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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3 Star Selection
NY GIANTS (-6.5) 24 Baltimore 10
Baltimore has won and covered in 4 straight games after beating me last week, but the Ravens apply to a very negative 10-44-1 subset of a 26-76-3 ATS road letdown situation and they’re also playing their 3rd consecutive road game – which is not a good scenario. Teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game are just 43% and that record becomes 58-97-1 ATS if the team didn’t lose straight up in their first 2 road games in the sequence. The record gets worse if the opponent has a winning record (29-64-1 ATS), which is what the situation is for the Ravens today. I went against Baltimore last week and the Ravens won despite averaging just 5.1 yards per play and allowing 6.3 yppl to the Texans, who were -4 in turnover margin. The Giants aren’t likely to self-destruct like the Texans did last week and New York applies to a 168-101-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. Baltimore is winning games, but the Ravens have only out-gained their opponents 4.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl this season. The Giants, meanwhile, have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl and my math model favors New York by 10 points in this game and it would be more if Ravens’ top WR Derrick Mason doesn’t play this week with his dislocated shoulder (he’s a game time decision). I’ll take New York in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points (at -1.10 odds or better) or less and for 2-Stars at -7 from -1.15 odds to -1.20 odds. I’d consider the Giants a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite of more than 7 points.
2 Star Selection
Houston (+8.5) 24 INDIANAPOLIS 25
Houston was out-scored 13-41 last week by Baltimore, but the Texans were hardly dominated. Houston actually out-gained the Ravens 6.3 yards per play to 5.1 yppl, but quarterback Sage Rosenfels threw 4 costly interceptions that led to the rout. The Colts, meanwhile, are coming off two consecutive emotionally charged rivalry wins over the Patriots and the Steelers and I don’t think they’ll have much left in the emotional tank for this game against the struggling 3-6 Texans. Teams that win to get to a game over .500 tend to relax as big favorites and the Colts also apply to a negative 70-142-3 ATS situation that just worked for me last week with Seattle over Miami. The Texans can compete with most teams from the line of scrimmage, as they have averaged 5.9 yppl and allowed 5.9 yppl this season against as slightly tougher than average schedule, but their -12 turnover margin and a couple of inexplicable losses have them at 3-6 instead of 5-4. One of those inexplicable losses was a 27-31 home loss to the Colts in which the Texans held a 17 point 4th quarter lead before giving the game away with 3 turnovers on 3 possessions. Sage Rosenfels got the Texans that lead with a strong performance before giving it away with 3 late turnovers, but that’s what you get with Rosenfels, who is averaging a stellar 7.0 yards per pass play but has thrown 6 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles in 3 games. Rosenfels has a career interception rate of 5.1%, which is horrendous, but my math model favors the Colts by 7 ½ points even with Houston projected to throw 2 interceptions. If Rosenfels throws 4 interceptions again this week then I’ll likely lose this Best Bet too, but 2 picks or less would result in a good chance to cover based on the strong letdown situation applying to the Colts. Indy has won just 1 game all season by more than 4 points and they’re 0-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points, so a blowout win is unlikely unless the turnover margin is 3 or more (which is unlikely). I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 26 Minnesota 14
Minnesota is coming off an emotionally charged 28-27 win over division rival Green Bay and that win sets up the Vikings in a negative 37-93-3 ATS letdown situation this week. These two teams are about the same from the line of scrimmage, as Tampa Bay is 0.1 yards pear play better than average offensively with Jeff Garcia at quarterback while Minnesota is average on offense with Gus Frerotte behind center. Defensively, the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while the Vikings are 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. The difference in this game, aside from the home field, is turnover and special teams. Gus Frerotte has thrown 11 interceptions and has a career interception percentage of 3.4%. Jeff Garcia, meanwhile, has thrown just 7 interceptions in 19 regular season game with Tampa Bay and his 2.2% career interception rate is among the lowest of all-time. The Vikings allowed yet another punt return touchdown last week (that’s 4 on the season) and Tampa Bay’s new return man Clifton Smith has averaged 15.6 yards on his 7 punt returns the last 2 games in addition to averaging 32.7 yards on 9 kickoff returns, including returning 1 for a TD. My math model favors Tampa Bay by 9 points thanks to their significant edge in projected turnovers and special teams. In addition to the line value and the good situation the Buccaneers have proven to be at their best at home this season, going 4-0 straight up with all 4 wins by 9 points or more. That includes 3 wins over pretty good teams – 24-9 over Atlanta, 30-21 over Green Bay, and 27-3 over Carolina. I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and for 3-Stars at -3 (-1.15 odds or better) or less.
NFL Strong Opinions
Philadelphia 22 at CINCINNATI 12 UNDER 42.0
Cincinnati is coming of their bye week, which was preceded by their first win of the season in week 9. Bad teams have a habit of playing well after their bye week, which was proven again last Monday night by San Francisco. Teams with a win percentage of less than .300 are a profitable 67-35 ATS as an underdog or pick following their bye week (from week 5 on), including 38-18 ATS for home teams. I addition to that, Philadelphia applies to a negative 36-83-2 big favorite letdown situation and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for this game after their emotionally charged loss to the Giants last Sunday night. My math model favors Philadelphia by 14 ½ points, so the line value goes the opposite way of the situation (which has been happening a lot this season). I’ll pass on the side on this game, but the Under looks like a solid play. Philadelphia rates at 0.5 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but the Eagles are 0.7 yppl better than aveage defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl). Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been pretty good defensively this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) while the Bengals’ pathetic offense is 1.2 yppl worse than average for the season (4.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and 1.6 yppl worse than average with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Philadelphia is a bit better defensively than they are offensively and Cincinnati is much, much better on defense than they are on offense. This should be a game in which the Eagles move the ball a bit better than average while Cincinnati will be lucky to surpass 200 total yards and my math model projects just 34 total points. There would likely have to be at least one non-offensive touchdown for this game to go over the total and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher.
New Orleans 32 at KANSAS CITY 27 OVER 50.0
Kansas City is not such a horrible team anymore since going to the spread offense a few weeks ago. The Chiefs worked on the spread in their week 6 bye and the decision was made to commit to the new attack when Tyler Thigpen was forced into being the starting quarterback after injuries to Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle in week 7. Thigpen really struggled in the conventional power running attack when he filled in early in the season, but Thigpen ran the spread offense in college and looked extremely comfortable and confident when the Chiefs unleashed their new attack on the unsuspecting Jets in week 8. Kansas City averaged 5.6 yards per play in that 24-28 spread covering loss in New York and they followed that up with 6.2 yppl against Tampa Bay the next week and 5.7 yppl in a near upset of the Chargers in San Diego last week. It appears as if the recent good play of the offense is attributable to the new spread attack and I expect Kansas City to continue to perform pretty well offensively – especially against a sub-par Saints’ defense. Kansas City still has a horrible defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and Drew Brees and the Saints’ explosive attack (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) should keep the scoreboard operator pretty busy. My math model favors New Orleans by 5 ½ points, but with 58 ½ points predicted. I have no opinion on the side, but I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 52 points or less based on the line value supplied by Kansas City’s new offense.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2000* INTERCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
The way the Falcons run it and the way the Broncos stop the run this is a cakewalk for the home team. Michael Turner should have over 150 yards and a few scores, as Denver's defense is probably the worst or second worst in the league overall. On the flip side, Denver has no running backs as they are all hurt. They signed free agents Alex Haynes and Tatum Bell this week for some help, but they won't do much. 401.9. That is how many yards per game Denver allows. They get rocked by two TD's or more today.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
***FLORDA (-15 ½) over Bradley
Florida took a big step back last season with an inexperienced team following two consecutive NCAA Championships, but the Gators will find themselves among the SEC’s best this season. Bradley was a middle of the pack Missouri Valley Conference team last season, which is pretty good, but the Braves really struggled without playmaking pointguard Daniel Ruffin last season, going just 3-7 straight up and 3-7 ATS in the games that Ruffin missed while playing at a level more than 8 points lower than they’re overall rating for the season. Ruffin and his 6.0 assists per game have graduated along with top scorer Jeremy Crouch and Matt Salley, who shot 51% from the field and led the team in rebounding. I just don’t see Bradley being as good without those 3 players and my ratings favor Florida by 17 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Florida applies to a 35-8 ATS subset of a 91-38-3 ATS early season angle and the Gators have a history of covering at home against lesser teams. In fact, Florida is 66-43-2 ATS as a home favorite of 5 points or more under coach Donovan, including 42-17-1 ATS when not off back-to-back victories (that’s when they tend to letdown a bit). Of that 42-17-1 ATS record, the Gators are 17-1-1 ATS against non-conference opponents and they should win this game easily. I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 or less and for 2-Stars at -16 ½ or -17 points.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
50 DIME TWO-TEAM TEASER
NEW YORK and ATLANTA
Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-Team Teaser, reduce the price you are laying with both favorites.
New York has been a steady 7 point home favorite all week against Baltimore. With the six-point teaser, you would make New York a 1 point chalk (depending of course on your original price - which is why it always pays to shop around).
Atlanta is laying 6 1/2 points at home versus Denver. Again, you can do the math, reducing Atlanta to virtually a pick-em game by taking away six points from the original price.
Both games kickoff at 1:00 P.M. Eastern and obviously the lines you get might be +/- the prices I'm listing.