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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
$2000.00 Atlanta (-6) over Denver
We have ridden the Falcons a lot this year and I just do not trust this Denver defense to be able to stop the Atlanta ground game. The Falcons are riding some momentum off a big win at home over New Orleans last week. Their secondary played well against Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered passing attack and I think they can do the same against Jay Cutler and Co. Cutler has been making shaky decisions with the ball and I just don’t think that this Broncos team is as good as their record indicates. Denver is 4-12 ATS on the road and is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 overall.
$2000.00 Washington (+1.5) over Dallas
Even out of a bye week the Cowboys are still overrated. I think that there are some fundamental issues with Dallas that can’t be fixed in an extra week and I don’t think they should be favored on the road here. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in this series, the home team is 5-1 SU, and the Redskins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series. This is a rivalry series where the underdog and the home team have performed very well. Here we are backing a home dog. I think it’s great value.
$800.00 Under 44.5 St. Louis at San Francisco
Four straight in this series have stayed under the total and four of five on the grass in San Fran have gone ‘under’. The Niners defense has been playing better as of late, even though the numbers don’t support that. They have played five of the top offenses in the league – Arizona, Seattle, the Giants, New Orleans, and Philadelphia – and have gotten demolished. But St. Louis’ offense is more their speed. The Rams gave up 47 points last week and I’m sure their coaches were all over them this week. I expect a more inspired effort.
$600.00 Houston (+8.5) over Indianapolis
I think the Colts are primed for a letdown this weekend after a big win against the Steelers. It’s not that I don’t think they can beat the Texans, it’s that I think this number is too large for them to cover with their defense. Houston was dominating the Colts just a few weekends ago in Texas before blowing their late lead. The Colts are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.
$3000.00 Over 38.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay
The general consensus is that these are two strong defenses and that this should be a grind-it-out game. However, the numbers suggest something different. Minnesota has averaged a total of 47.2 points per game overall and on the road they are averaging a total of 59.7 points per game. Basically, the Vikings’ defense is not nearly as strong as the public thinks it is. Five of their last six games have gone ‘over’, and most of them have gone ‘over’ by at least 10 points. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense is much better than its numbers suggest as well. Their problems have been in the red zone. But I think that Jon Gruden put in extra time and extra work on this aspect of their game during the bye week and I expect to see some new wrinkles. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games of a week or rest and is 16-5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games after an ATS loss.
SF UNDER 54...........................$480/$400
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
MIAMI (-10.5) 24 Oakland 14
Oakland’s defense played incredibly well last week against a good Carolina offense, allowing the Panthers just 219 yards at 4.0 yards per play and that unit has been better than average since allowing 7.9 yppl on opening night against Denver. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ offense continues to struggle and has averaged just 7 points over their last 5 games. Miami is a bit worse than average defensively so the Raiders will probably have a few scoring opportunities in this game, especially if their huge special teams advantage over the Dolphins sets them up in good field position. My math model actually favors Miami by just 8 points in this game, but Oakland applies to a negative 2-22 ATS subset of a 13-44 ATS situation that plays against slumping teams on the road. However, Miami also applies to a couple of big favorite letdown situations – although none of them are as strong as the angle against the Raiders. I’ll lean slightly with Oakland at +10 ½ points or more.
ATLANTA (-6.5) 31 Denver 23
The Broncos have one of the better offensive teams in the NFL (6.3 yards per play), but they allow a horrendous 6.2 yppl on the defensive side of the ball and are a below average team after adjusting for their weak slate of opposing teams. Atlanta, meanwhile, is the surprise team of the NFL so far this season and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been impressive from the start. Ryan has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average quarterback) and the Falcons are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively and should have no trouble moving the ball on a banged up Broncos’ defense (to CB Bailey and top LB Williams are out) that couldn’t stop anyone when they were fully healthy. Denver will get their share of points too against a sub-par Falcons’ defense that rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but my math model favors Atlanta by 11 points. Unfortunately, the Falcons apply to a negative 13-47-1 ATS situation that serves to dampen my enthusiasm a bit – but I’ll still lean with Atlanta.
CAROLINA (-14.0) 26 Detroit 14
The Panthers are 3-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 7 points or more, winning those games by an average score of 25-5 and the Panthers should perform well on both sides of the ball in this game against the winless Lions. Newly signed veteran quarterback Daunte Culpepper showed flashes of his great arm last week and completed 5 of 10 passes for 104 yards after just one week of practice with his new team. Culpepper should be more comfortable with the offense and his receivers this week, but he’s averaged just 5.4 yards per pass play the last couple of years with Miami and Oakland, so there is no indication that Culpepper will resurrect a struggling Lions’ offense. Detroit’s defense is horrible and Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball in this game while their strong defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) should limit the Lions’ offense. My math model favors Carolina by 15 ½ points in this game but Detroit applies to a decent 58-21-1 ATS situation that plays on winless teams as big underdogs. Detroit has applied to that angle 3 times this season and they’re 3-0 ATS with spread wins at Minnesota (a 10-12 loss as a 13 point dog), at Houston (a 7 point loss as +9 ½), and at Chicago (a 23-27 loss as a 12 ½ point dog). I’ll lean with Detroit plus the points based on that situation.
GREEN BAY (-3.5) 23 Chicago 20
GREEN BAY (-3 ½) 23 Chicago 14 (with Grossman at QB for Chicago)
I’ll assume that Kyle Orton will be at quarterback for the Bears this week after 1 ½ games of Rex Grossman’s ineptitude. Grossman averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB), so I’m sure coach Lovie Smith would love to get Orton back under center. Orton practiced on Wednesday and is optimistic about his return to the lineup for this game. With Orton at the controls the Bears figure to move the ball pretty well, as Orton has been 0.5 yards per pass play better than average (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and gives the Bears a chance against a very good Packers’ secondary that has allowed just 5.2 yppp this season (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The Packers problem is a run defense that has surrendered 5.2 ypr this season and even a below average Bears’ rushing attack (3.8 ypr against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr) should have success in this game. Chicago’s defense defends the run very well (3.3 ypr allowed) but I rate the Bears as a bit below average against the pass and Aaron Rodgers should post good numbers. My math model favors Green Bay by just 2 ½ points with Orton at quarterback for the Bears and by 9 points with Grossman at quarterback for Chicago. Orton is listed as questionable (as of Wednesday night), but I have a feeling he will play.
Arizona (-2.5) 26 SEATTLE 22
Seattle gets quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back this week after a 5 game absence and he’ll return with a better receiving corps to throw to than he had earlier this season. I still expect the Seahawks to be below average throwing the football, but they do have a good rushing attack and should at least resemble a team that is capable of moving the football. Arizona is solid defensively and the Seahawks will have a tough time keeping up with the Cardinals’ potent attack that has averaged 6.1 yards per play and rates at 1.0 yppl better than average in 7 games with Anquan Boldin teaming with Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver. My math model favors Arizona by 7 points even after upwardly adjusting Seattle’s offensive ratings with Hasselbeck returning to the lineup. I’ll just lean with Arizona in this game since Seattle applies to a 75-29-2 ATS statistical profile indicator while Arizona applies to a negative 125-196-16 ATS statistical indicator.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 26 St. Louis 19
The only thing keeping the 49ers from being a pretty good team is the turnovers, as the Niners have out-gained their opponents 5.4 yards per play to 5.3 yppl this season while also possessing very strong special teams. San Francisco is -13 in turnover margin, which is keeping them from reaching their potential, but it is unlikely that they’ll continue to be as negative in turnovers going forward, especially with Shaun Hill taking over at quarterback for mistake prone J.T. O’Sullivan. Hill committed 3 turnovers in the Niners’ agonizing 24-29 loss in Arizona on Monday night, but his 6 career turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost) in 4 ½ career games is much better than O’Sullivan’s 17 turnovers (11 picks and 6 lost fumbles) in 7 ½ games this season. With the Niners’ likely to turn the ball over fewer times they should have no trouble beating a horrible Rams team that has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.5 yppl this season. In fact, my math model favors the 49ers by 14 points in this game. Unfortunately the Niners apply to a negative 58-124-1 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Rams apply to a 40-12-1 ATS subset of a 97-43-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. This is a tough game to call with the math going so strongly in one direction and the situation going so strongly in the other. I’ll lean slightly with San Francisco by -7 or less.
JACKSONVILLE 19 Tennessee (-2.5) 18
I’m not that impressed with Jacksonville so far this season, as the Jaguars have been out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl, but Tennessee is hardly dominating (out-gaining teams just 5.0 yppl to 4.5 yppl) and the Jaguars apply to a very good 76-27-2 ATS situation that won for me last month with Green Bay beating Indianapolis by 20 points. My main math model favors Indy by just 1 ½ points, but a different math model I’ve been working on (which has been better over the year and a half I’ve been testing it) favors the Titans by 5 points. I’d certainly like Jacksonville more if they were getting a solid 3 points (at -1.10 odds), but I will still favor the Jags as an underdog of less than 3 points based on the strong situation.
PITTSBURGH (-5.0) 20 San Diego 17
The Chargers seem to play to the level of their competition and the average margin of their 5 losses this season is just 4.6 points, so there’s a good chance this one will be decided late. This game will be determined by how well San Diego’s explosive offense (6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) performs against Pittsburgh’s dominating defense that has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Steelers appear to have an edge in that battle and they haven’t allowed more than 4.7 yppl in any game this season, which includes games against good offensive teams Philadelphia (4.2 yppl against Pitt), the Giants (4.5 yppl) and the Colts (4.7 yppl). Pittsburgh’s offense has been the problem this season, as that unit has averaged only 4.8 yppl with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. The Chargers are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, but they have an edge over Pitt’s sorry offense. My math model favors the Steelers by 6 points, but San Diego applies to a solid 229-115-9 contrary indicator and I’ll lean with the Chargers plus the points.
WASHINGTON 23 Dallas (-1.5) 20
Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys, but the Redskins remain an underrated team. Washington has out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively while playing mostly error free football (just 8 turnovers in 9 games). Dallas is 1.5 yppl better than average in 6 games with Tony Romo at quarterback, so they do have an edge over Washington’s stout defense if Romo plays at his normal level, and the Cowboys’ defense (0.4 yppl better than average) has a slight edge on Washington’s offense. Despite Dallas being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Redskins are favored by my math model by 2 points on the basis of an edge in projected turnovers, special teams, and the home field advantage. Washington also applies to a decent 79-31-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Redskins are the percentage play in this game.
BUFFALO (-5.0) 24 Cleveland 19
Brady Quinn played pretty well in his NFL debut against Denver last week, as he averaged 6.8 yards per pass play without throwing an interception. The yardage number is actually below average considering Denver would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback, but Quinn should have another pretty good outing against a below average Bills’ secondary that is without their best player in S Donte Whitner. Buffalo gave up 6.5 yppp to a poor passing Patriots team last week without their star defensive back their defense has been getting steadily worse as the season has progressed. Cleveland’s defense is in even worse shape, as the Browns have allowed 6.0 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Buffalo is 0.2 yppl below average offensively, but they should move the ball pretty well in this game. Cleveland has gone 3-3 since starting the season with 3 losses and the Bills have lost 4 of 5 games since their 4-0 start to the season and my math model favors Buffalo by only 2 ½ points in this game. Buffalo does apply to a 63-23-2 ATS Monday night home team angle and a 46-15-4 ATS subset of a 123-63-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I’ll pass on this game.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
NFL 5-Game POWER PACK - 80% on the season!
PLAY ON Top Game Home Team Hammer - Pittsburgh (-) vs. San Diego
While many of the national pundits continue to speak of San Diego?s awaited emergence and how they are still one of the teams to beat in the AFC, the Chargers simply continue to play poor football. Folks, this is not a good team and it isnt changing during their trip to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a home loss, so expect them to be ultra angry in this one. This team has been very solid at home off a home loss historically tallying a 15-6 spread record dating back to 1986. It doesnt happen often, however when it does, the Steelers usually bounce back with a win and cover. San Diego has been really poor on the road this year. They have played away from Southern California five times this year and come up with only one victory. That win can be pushed aside because it was @ Oakland where everyone seems to win. The Bolts even struggled as they were behind 15-0 at half and were out gained by the offensively challenged Raiders. In fact, the only road game where the Chargers actually had more total yards than their opponent was against the Saints (by just 42 yards) and that was still a loss and actually on a neutral field. Look for the SD offense to struggle big time on Sunday. This team has played just one opponent this ENTIRE YEAR whos defense is currently ranked inside the top 10. That was Carolina back on September 7th and a home loss for the Chargers. Now they attempt to put up points against the #1 overall defense in NFL and they are off loss. The 4-point loss at home to Indy last week was not the fault of the defense who continues to play stellar. They held the Colts to just 62 yards rushing and Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 40 pass attempts. The problem was turnovers on offense. Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions and apologized to his team after the loss. Look for a much better effort from Roethlisberger on Sunday. He will also get a nice reprieve playing a Charger defense that ranks 26th overall in the NFL and dead last (32nd) against the pass. We?ll definitely side with the riled up home team with the FAR superior defense. Lay the points with the Black & Gold.
PLAY ON Insider Chalk - Tampa Bay (-) vs. Minnesota
The Bucs are fresh after a bye last week. Minnesota wont be after a down to the wire physically and emotionally draining game with division rival Green Bay last Sunday. You?ll definitely be able to see a drastic difference on the field Saturday because of this, among other things. Tampa has been a dominating home team this year winning all four by at least 9 points. Their closest home game was a 30-21 win over the Packers. They also whipped up on two very good teams at home rolling over Carolina 27-3 and Atlanta 24-9. Their other home win was a 10-point victory over Seattle. The Bucs have out gained their opponents at home by an average of 120 YPG. Their defense has been lights out at Raymond James Stadium holding each of their four opponents to 282 total yards or less. They have given up an average of just 218 total YPG in those four and just 10 PPG. That will be a big problem for a pedestrian Minnesota offense that relies so heavily on Adrian Peterson. Tampa allows just 99 YPG on the ground in order for the Vikings to stay in this they will rely heavily on QB Gus Frerotte. Problem is, Frerotte has not been playing well. In his last four games he has thrown nine interceptions and dont expect that to change against the #5 pass defense in the league on Sunday. The Vikes have been a ?go against? team on the road this season. They are just 1-3 both SU and ATS away from the Metrodome. Also, their one road win was a 30-27 gift at New Orleans. The Saints dominated that game but turned the ball over 4 times and Minny also blocked a field goal and returned it for a TD. Otherwise, they would be staring 0-4 in the face for their road record. Tampa is coming off two sub par performance vs. Dallas and KC, however both of those games were on the road. They have now had two weeks off to rectify their problems and we expect a great effort on Sunday. QB Jeff Garcia has been very good completing 68% of his passes and he should continue his success vs. Minnesota who has the 19th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Tampa is in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive total yards and should roll on Sunday. The Vikes have a definite letdown and Tampa comes out on fire. We?ll lay the small number.
PLAY ON Total of the Day - Under the total, Detroit vs. Carolina
Both of these teams struggled mightily on offense last week. Carolina put up just 17 points @ Oakland while the Lions managed only 10 points at home vs. the Jags. Dont expect a big change this Sunday. The Lions are in transition as Daunte Culpepper took over at QB after just a few days of practice last week. He threw only 10 passes in last Sunday?s loss to Jacksonville. Don?t expect that to change a whole lot as Culpepper has not been able to get very deep into the playbook in his short time with the team. Detroit has averaged just over 16 PPG this year and that was when they had QB?s that actually have been in the system and were able to run a vast array of offensive plays. Now with Culpepper under center and a scaled back playbook, we can only anticipate this offense will struggle even more than they have over the next few weeks. It doesnt help that they are facing a Panther defense that had allowed an average of just 11 PPG in their five home games this year. The Panthers offense was terrible last week against an Oakland team that had allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. QB Jake Delhomme was terrible throwing four interceptions. He also completed just 7 of his 27 attempts for 72 yards. Carolina head coach John Fox will not want to take any chances with this poor Detroit team. Especially with Delhomme coming off a poor performance and struggling against Oakland, look for Carolina to grab a lead and run, run, run. Carolina has played 9 games this year and 8 of them have failed to top 40 points. The Panthers are the #2 defense in the NFL in points allowed and Detroit is not a team that will alter that stat with their struggling offense. Carolina also has the league?s 10th best rushing offense while Detroit cant stop the run allowing 161 YPG. Expect a heavy dose of the ground game, shortening this game and keeping it well under the total.
PLAY ON Seattle + vs. Arizona
The Smart Money is all over Seattle on this one and we agree 100%. Nearly 75% of the wagers have come in on the Cards yet the line has remained on 3-points the entire week. It hasnt budged one bit. Thats because the few smart money guys who are among the 25% wagering on Arizona, have put down enough to keep this line stable. The odds makers are begging you to take the Cards here and we wont appease them. We like Seattle. The Seahawks have actually been playing fairly well as of late. Three weeks ago they went into San Fran and dominated the Niners winning 34-13 (the same SF team that Arizona struggled with at home on Monday Night). The following week the Hawks lost to a desperate, but very good Philadelphia team that is trying to keep pace in the NFC East. Last Sunday they went to a good Miami team and nearly pulled off the win losing 21-19. This team is still playing hard for Mike Holmgren who is in his final year as Seattle?s head coach. Seattle has had some struggles on offense this year. The main problem has been their passing attack which is averaging just 145 YPG. That is way down from last year when they threw for 248 YPG. Look for those numbers to move drastically upward on Sunday as QB Matt Hasselbeck is back under center for the first time since October 5th. Hasselbeck practiced with no ill affects all week and will get the start vs. Arizona. He is also getting one of his key weapons back as WR Deion Branch will play also for the first time since October 5th. Expect the Seattle offense to look better than it has in quite some time. Arizona is in an absolute horrible spot. They had a come from behind win on Monday night beating San Francisco 29-24. The Cardinals aren?t used to the limelight because they have simply been a poor team for much of their time in Arizona. In fact, last Monday was their FIRST Monday Night win since moving to Arizona 20 years ago. You think there is any chance they avoid a letdown after that. No way. Not only that, this is basically a meaningless game for the Cardinals as they stand at 6-3 in the NFC West while the closest team to them is just 2-7. They have that division wrapped up. Arizona has won just once in Seattle since 1993 (1-6 SU). They have also been a historically terrible road team with a record of just 16-60 their last 76 trips outside of Arizona. With a home game vs. the Super Bowl Champion Giants on deck, we can?t fault the Cards for not having their full focus on the struggling Seahawks. We call for the upset and watch Seattle win at home with Hasselbeck at the helm.
PLAY ON Under the Total, Oakland vs. Miami
There is absolutely no question that Oakland has problems scoring, or even moving the football down the field for that matter. The Raiders were shut out two weeks ago and totaled just 77 total yards of offense against the Falcons! As an encore last week, they scored just 6 points against the Panthers, even with Carolina QB Jake Delhomme doing his best job to let the Raiders win, (Delhomme finished 7/27 passing for 72 yards and 4 interceptions). The Dolphins will score enough points to win, and be able to put their offense on cruise control against Oakland in a game that will finish UNDER 38.5. The Raider defense has been respectable this season, but no defense can expect to keep their team in contention when their offense is THAT bad. Miami will be able to do what the Falcons and the Panthers did in consecutive weeks against the Raiders; get a comfortable lead and use their strong running game as a cruise control to get an easy win. Also, not that it matters too much, but the Dolphins have a great defense with a fierce pass rush that will further prevent the Oakland offense from scoring. Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington has been extremely efficient in his first season in Miami, completing 67% of his passes for 2200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Miami has also used talented running backs Ronnie Brown (504 yards, 9 TD?s) and Ricky Williams (388 yards, 3 TD?s) very effectively in the new and improved ?Wildcat? formation. Miami doesnt make a lot of mistakes and that?s a big reason why they are a surprising 5-4 this season and in the playoff hunt. Its no surprise that the Raiders have finished UNDER in four of their last five games, but the Dolphins have also won three straight games, and finished UNDER in all three. This trend will continue as the Dolphins will jump out to a comfortable lead, and be able to use their strong running game to milk the clock and get the win. Easy UNDER play here.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
25 Units each
75 Unit NFL 2-Team Parlay
Ny Giants (-7) over Ravens
49ers (-6½) over Rams
2008 CHAIRMAN'S CLUB FOOTBALL
10 Units Seahawks (+3) over Cardinals
2008 BEST BETS FOOTBALL
5 Units Dolphins (-10) over Raiders
3 Units Bears (+3½) over Packers
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Chargers @ Steelers -4.5: Steelers -4.5 (20 Unit Play)
Broncos @ Falcons -6.5: Falcons -6.5 (10 Unit Play)
Ravens @ Giants -7: Giants -7 (15 Unit Play)
Heat @ Raptrors Over/Under 188: Under (10 Unit Play)
William & Mary @ Ohio U -8: Ohio U -8 (10 Unit Play)
New Mexico +2 at Creighton: New Mexico +2 (5 Unit Play)