Cincinnati @ Louisville

Cincinnati @ Louisville

Cincinnati (7-2, 3-1) -3.5 vs Loiusville (5-4, 1-3)

Cincinnati has actually improved in their average lined game, in comparing the first three games at being a (+4.5 DOG on average) they have come up to having been a (+2 DOG on average in those last three.) Now, comparing the first three games for Louisville they were a (+1.5 DOG) to basically being a PICK'EM in the last three.

Common opponents between these two teams are South Florida and Connecticut.
Cincinnati hosted South Florida as a (2pt DOG) at Home... Cinci won that game by a heavy 14 points (24-10)... and by that I mean the score didnt reflect the battle on offense... Cincinnati had almost 400 yards at 17 yards per offensive play... While South Florida was only 40 yards short of that in totals and actualy bettered them by just over a yard per play. Like I always say Turnovers can make or break a Box score.. Now @ Connecticut where Cincinnati went in as a (-2.5 FAV) WOW! That game was not pretty for the Cinci faithful... as far as score goes.. (60 yards of total offense seperated the two teams, they were neck-n-neck in the yards per play. The standout difference was the 123 yard edge on the ground that Connecticut had on Cincinnati... Can you say ground and pound.?.

Louisville hosting South Florida as a (+6 DOG) at home.. Cardinals win (24-10).. Well, the Cards had just over 320 yards total offense... thats an ok game right? I see it as a great DEFENSE game due to the Cardinals holding South Fla to well below 50 yards rushing. Keeping the rushing yards so low cost them in the air, and South Fla showed it by racking up over 340 yards with the pass. Had it not been for the air attack of South Florida the game could have gotten real ugly. Moving on to Louisville vs UCONN.. In hosting UCONN the Cardinals were a (-3.5 FAV) well that was not the case... UCONN won the game 26-21.. but there again the score doesnt reflect the actual battle.. I mean Louisville was out to play hard and it showed in the stats.. The Cards rushed for 261 yards at better than 6 yards a carry over 240 yards in the air, totaling over 500 yards of total offense tallying better than 20 yards per offensive play. UCONN did however show resilliance with over 15 yards per offensive play but only totaling just over 275 yards of offense.

Teams are averaging over 110 yards on the ground and over 220 yards through the air vs Cincinnati D this season
Teams are averaging barely 90 yards on the ground and over 220 yards through the air vs Louisville D this season

Louisville averaging 175+yards on the ground this season and 200+/- yards through the air this season
Cincinnati averaging 115+yard on the ground this season and 250+ through the air this season

I give Louisville the EDGE in this match up...
My pick Louisville +4

All that being said...
Cincinnati (33% ATS when favored by 4 or more playing away)
Louisville  (67% ATS when a DOGGED by 4 or more)
Both teams are (50% ATS this season)
Louisville is also (60% ATS @ home in all lined games)
Cincinnati is (40% ATS playing away in all lined games this season)

Thanks for letting me ramble..

taco_31d
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

I like the write up man.  I like the pick too.  I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger on the Moneyline upset though.  I see this game as a field goal win for either team.  It is going to come down to who gets the turn over in the fourth.  I like the under, but a little worried about an overtime.  Staying away from total b/c of weather also.

podsports
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

I concur, Louisville +4 or no play at all.  The Bearcats will need another huge turnover disparity to cover this many points and I just don't see them doing this on the road against a desperate Louisville team. 

Samson Prime
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

I'm sorry but I have got to bitch a little bit here.  That was the worst spot of the football replay I have ever scene from a replay booth.  I'm not making excuses for the lost, but come on man.  They should not be reviewing the spot of the football from replay.  And if they are going to review it, get it right.  Why not review every freaking down if your that unsure of the spot of the ball!! :'(

Anybody else agree ???

podsports
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

podsports wrote:


I'm sorry but I have got to bitch a little bit here.  That was the worst spot of the football replay I have ever scene from a replay booth.  I'm not making excuses for the lost, but come on man.  They should not be reviewing the spot of the football from replay.  And if they are going to review it, get it right.  Why not review every freaking down if your that unsure of the spot of the ball!! :'(

Anybody else agree ???

LAST time i back this shit ass team, their fat fuck lineman with that holding penalty when they were driving at the 10 yard line cost them the game even way before that bullshit review. Oh lets not forget the stupid ass coach sending in his FG kicker to attempt a career long in the pouring rain giving Cincy great field position

Mr. Blue Sky
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

There was a lot of times when the ball was miss spotted in that game... I know of (2) the first was inside the 10 and the Cards drew a pass interference and was supposed to get it half the distance to the goal and they only got it spotted on the 7 yard line... I mean DAMN IT.. the zebras either suck or they were paid good.. I mean they couldnt get much of anything called right...  :x

taco_31d
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Re: Cincinnati @ Louisville

I am jumping on board here too.  As I said before, Cincy would need a lot of crazy plays, calls, and turnovers to even win this game, and look what happened.  They remind me of this years Titans or Vikings. I would play the +4 all over again 100 times and 90 times they would either win or cover. 

Samson Prime
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