FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
Cincinnati (-3.5) 30 LOUISVILLE 17 (Friday)

Cincinnati is starting to show what a quality team they are while Louisville is starting to show how mediocre they are. The Bearcats are coming off convincing wins over South Florida and at West Virginia while Louisville has been horrible in losing consecutive home games to Syracuse (as a 13 point favorite) and Pittsburgh (by a 7-41 count). The loss to Pitt actually wasn’t as bad as the score indicates, as the Cardinals were -5 in turnover margin in that game (although they were out-gained 4.4 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Panthers). Louisville is better than they’ve shown the last two weeks, but they are a mediocre team that rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense with QB Hunter Cantwell in the game (5.4 yppl against Division 1A foes that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while rating as just average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at quarterback (Cincy struggled offensively relative to the defenses they faced in the 3 games Pike missed) and the Bearcats are an outstanding 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Cincy has been particularly good defensively since giving up 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahama early in the season, as they’ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 7 games since then (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The 40 points the Bearcats allowed to Connecticut prior to their current 2 game win streak was the result of a -6 in turnover margin and not bad defense (they allowed just 4.8 yppl in that game). In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats should win the turnover battle, as Pike has thrown just 3 interceptions on 161 pass attempts (1.9%) while Louisville quarterback Cantwell has thrown 11 picks on 261 passes (4.2%). Cincinnati is also known for their ball-hawking secondary and they’ve intercepted 12 passes in 9 games while Louisville’s passive secondary has picked off just 5 passes and has been without a pick in 5 of their 8 Division 1A games. Cincinnati hasn’t been as good as their numbers because they are randomly at -9 in fumbles lost margin, losing 11 fumbles while recovering just 2. That’s just random bad luck, as 90% of fumble difference is random in college football. My math model gives the Bearcats a 58.9% chance of covering at -3 ½ points and a 57.8% chance of covering at -4 points. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at –4 or less, for 3-Stars at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) and I’d consider the Bearcats a Strong Opinion from -4 ½ to -5 ½ points.

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Frank Patron

5000 Unit Big East Lock

Cincinnati Bearcats -4

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Brandon Lang

5 Dime Louisville

FREE - Cincinnati/Louisville OVER

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

BIG EAST COLLEGE FOOTBALL ROAST OF THE YEAR
Cincinnati -3.5

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Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Oklahoma City +8.5

Miami -6.5

Milwaukee / Memphis Under 190

Portland / New Orleans Under 192

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Allen Eastman

$800.00 Cincinnati (-3.5) over Louisville

If the Cardinals are bad enough to lose to Syracuse they are bad enough to lose to Cincinnati. This Bearcats teams is very physical at the line of scrimmage and reminds me of the Kentucky team that destroyed the Cardinals at home this year. Cincy is 19-9-2 ATS overall and is 12-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in this series and I think that we are getting solid odds on a short number here.

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ATS Lock CLub
3 units Cincy -4
4 units Blazers +8
4 units Mavs -1
4 units Detroit (NCAAB) +23.5

ATS Financial Package
3 units Cincy/Lou Under 47.5
3 units Jazz -4
3 units C.Mich -3

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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT

CINCINNATI vs LOUISVILLE
Play: CINCINNATI -4

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Rocketman

New Jersey / Washington
Play: 4* New Jersey +170

New Jersey is 4-1 SU and ATS at Washington last 3 years. Devils are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Devils are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. Southeast. Devils are 35-16-1 in their last 52 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Capitals are 15-37-1 in their last 53 Friday games. Capitals are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 12-32 in their last 44 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Devils are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington. Devils are 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings. Road team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. We'll play New Jersey for 4 units tonight!


St Louis / Chicago
Play: 4* St Louis +175

Blues are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Central. Blackhawks are 53-112-8 in their last 173 games playing on 1 days rest. Blackhawks are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Central. Blackhawks are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. We'll play St Louis for 4 units tonight!

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Big Al

3* Hornets
1* Memphis
1* Louisville

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DCI

Season
Straight Up: 74-39 (.655)
ATS: 56-62 (.475)
ATS Vary Units: 210-177 (.543)
Over/Under: 71-48 (.597)
Over/Under Vary Units: 245-178 (.579)

Utah 105, CHARLOTTE 98
INDIANA 103, Philadelphia 98
Washington 95, MIAMI 94
Atlanta 99, NEW JERSEY 96
NEW YORK 106, Oklahoma City 99
BOSTON 109, Denver 98
MEMPHIS 106, Milwaukee 103
NEW ORLEANS 99, Portland 89
DALLAS 100, Orlando 99
SAN ANTONIO 89, Houston 86
Phoenix 113, SACRAMENTO 109
L.A. LAKERS 102, Detroit 93

What does his ATS vary units mean?  Anybody know?

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Lockoftheday

NBA Lock of the month

Houston Rockets -5

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Nick Bogdanovich

Medium Cincinnati -4

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Bob Akmens

10* Ul Monroe -3.5

10* New Mexico -26.5

10* Clemson Over 142


10* Pacers -1


10* Carolina -115

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Bob Balfe

College Football
Louisville +4 over Cincinnati
Louisville struggled the last two weeks, but they were on the road and are a much better team at home. This Cardinals team beat South Florida and Kansas State in their home building. Hunter Cantwell has struggled for Louisville, but he is a senior and should keep them in the game tonight. Both teams score about 27 pts per game. This should go down right to the wire take the home team in Louisville.

NBA Basketball
Nets +3.5 over Hawks

NCAA Basketball
Illinois Chicago +5.5 over Bradley

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KELSO

5 Units Cincinnati -4 over Louisville
Cincinnati by 9-10

The 22nd ranked Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2) have overcome a multitude of injuries this season and just get better with each game played. They come into this Big East contest off back-to-back wins over then nationally ranked South Florida, 24-10, and West Virginia, 26-23, and with designs on the conference championship and that automatic $12,000,000 BCS bowl bid that goes with it. This is a team at the top of its game and taking no prisoners and I do not believe Louisville (5-4) has the talent or the will to handle such a determined football team. For the record, Cincinnati’s losses this season came at Oklahoma, 52-26, and later at Connecticut, 40-16, in a game in which it had been crippled by injuries to key skill players.

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Trace Adams

The Cardinals have got to be happy to be back home for this one, as their last 2 games - both on the road - were losing efforts, as the Cards lost at lowly Syracuse, and were pasted 41-6 last Saturday at Pittsburgh.Louisville will take on a sizzling Cincinnati team that comes into this one off a pair of upset wins over South Florida, and on the road at West Virginia. The West Virginia win saw Cincy blow a big 4th quarter lead, but hold on for the outright in overtime, 26-23. On the road for a second straight week after such an emotional win, I expect the Bearcats to struggle against the desperate 'Ville.Louisville was a 28-24 winner in last year's meeting as the 10-point dog, and they are now 9-1 straight up, and 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 series meetings with the Bearcats.With the 'Ville needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible, I expect Steve Kragthorpe's team to come up with a game effort in this one.

1000♦ - Louisville Cardinals

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ALEX SMART    

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

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