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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
4 STAR SELECTION
Northwestern +3½ over MICHIGAN
The Wolverines close out their 2008 home slate this weekend, as they host the Wildcats in a Big Ten tussle in Ann Arbor. Already guaranteed its first losing season since 1967, Michigan stunned Minnesota 29-6 last weekend to put a stop to a five-game slide.
Northwestern is coming off its worst performance of the season, a 45-10 beating at the hands of Ohio State last weekend. The WildCats have been especially tough on the road this season, posting three wins against just one loss.
Overwhelming losses to the Buckeyes have become the norm at Northwestern. With last week's 35-point home defeat, that meant the Wildcats have lost the last four years to the Buckeyes by a combined 205-34 count. Northwestern, however, is a program based on response — and the Wildcats have done a solid job of forgetting about those whippings by the following Saturday.
We often look to play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss, as Northwestern is here. As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.
We also like to play ON a team that is showing positive signs with a coach in his 3rd year. Some coaching changes do bring about immediate results but that is the exception, not the rule. Many times, a college coach will hit his stride in his 3rd year, especially if the coach has done well recruiting. By year #3, his own recruits will be playing 1st string and the team is well-adjusted to all the news systems and techniques that the new coach has implemented. Teams that are not being hyped in a coach’s 3rd year, despite improvement from year 1 to year 2, should provide tremendous line value. Pat Fitzgerald has the Wildcats program on the rise in his 3rd season, as they have a great shot at having their best season since 2000.
Northwestern has some solid numbers in their favor here, as they are:
12-0 ATS (+9.9 ppg) off a Saturday SU loss as a favorite of less than 16 points or underdog of less than 13 points;
10-2 SU (+7.9 ppg) & 11-0-1 ATS (+12.2 ppg) as a road underdog of less than 8 points vs. an opponent not off a favorite SU win of 12+ points
Michigan is preparing for two completely different looks this week. Starting WildCats QB C.J. Bacher is still hobbling with a hamstring injury. If he were to miss a third straight game, Mike Kafka would start in his place. Kafka is a scrambler who has rushed for exactly 300 yards, vaulting him to second on the team in rushing despite playing in just two games. Bacher is mobile, but is a better passer than Kafka. Trying to prepare for both quarterbacks will be difficult for a defense that has been inconsistent.
The Wolverines enjoyed a win last week, but their success is likely short-lived as they are:
0-4 SU (-15.2 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-17.8 ppg) off a SU win since last year;
1-5 SU (-9 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-15.9 ppg) as a favorite since last year;
0-4 ATS this year at home vs. opponents with revenge;
0-5 ATS this season vs. opponents playing with at least triple revenge.
Additionally, after snapping a losing streak with a road underdog win, teams returning home have been ill-equipped for the role of favorite in a competitive game as documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a favorite of 9 points or less off a road SU win as an underdog in its last game and 3 SU losses before that vs. an opponent not off an ATS loss of 11+ points.
Since 1991, teams like Michigan in this spot have gone 0-14 ATS, including Miami, Ohio’s 33-point loss as a 5½-point favorite a few weeks ago.
We also play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
That’s exactly what has happened here, as Michigan opened as a favorite of 2½ points, but has seen that balloon to 3½ points, providing us with great line value here. We’ll take the WildCats and all the points we can get, although we like their chances of winning this game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTHWESTERN 20 MICHIGAN 17
4 STAR SELECTION
South Carolina +22½ over FLORIDA
The third-ranked Gators host the nationally ranked Gamecocks in SEC action Saturday afternoon. Florida has steamrolled recent conference foes to win their SEC division, but still have 3 games left before the league title game against #1 Alabama.
South Carolina certainly isn't a pushover, as the squad has won two straight games and six of its last seven to improve to 7-3 overall. All three of the Gamecocks' losses have come by seven points, proof that they have been competitive even in defeat.
Florida suffered their lone loss of the season to Ole Miss by one point in late September. Since then, they have reeled off five straight victories, all by at least 28 points.
The Gamecocks are a mediocre offensive team, as the squad is posting 24 ppg to go along with 333 total ypg. The South Carolina defense, however, has been strong all season, limiting foes to less than 16 ppg and 257 total ypg. Considering the quality of the SEC opponents that the Gamecocks have faced, those numbers are extremely impressive. Opponents are gaining just over 100 rushing ypg against South Carolina on an average of only 3 ypc. With 24 sacks and 20 takeaways, the club has made a solid number of big plays.
They will certainly be challenged here, as Florida is racking up 43 ppg and over 400 total ypg this season. While QB Tim Tebow and the Florida offense garner most of the headlines, the Gator defense has been one of the nation's best units. Opponents are managing only 12 ppg and 286 total ypg against Florida.
The South Carolina defense should be able to keep the team in this game. The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 4 points off a SU win since 2005.
As good as the Gators are, this is a big letdown spot for them, coming off their Georgia victory and division-clinching win at Vanderbilt last week. The numbers show that they are:
0-2 ATS as a home favorite before a non-lined game;
0-6 ATS (-15.6 ppg) over the past decade as a home favorite of more than 14 points off 3 ATS wins;
0-5 ATS (-13.2 ppg) as a conference favorite of more than 17 points from Game 5 on with less than 13 days rest vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a SU loss allowing 50+ points.
While many are jumping on Florida because of their recent run of blowout wins, this streak actually qualifies the Gators for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a conference team off 5 SU wins of 28+ points.
This situation has been absolutely perfect as far back as the NCAA Football SportsDataBase goes, which is 1980. Since then, these teams have gone 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 16 points per game on average. The 2 biggest spread losses were both from Florida, and now they qualify as the “PLAY AGAINST” team for the 3rd time.
Finally, we also like to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves.
Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move.
Here, Florida opened at -23, but that was quickly bet down to -21. Since then, however, the number has rose up to -22 and over. We’ll fade the flavor of the month and take all these points, as we like the Gamecocks to keep this one close against a flat Gators team.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 28 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
3 STAR SELECTION
East Carolina +3 over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
The Pirates head back out on the road Saturday, as they take on the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg. East Carolina is coming off back-to-back OT victories and has won their last 3 games, as they have got their season back on track.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss posted back-to-back wins for the first time this season by taking out Central Florida last Saturday in a 17-6 decision.
From an offensive standpoint the Pirates don't overwhelm opponents as they are scoring 23 ppg, but the defense has been superior. East Carolina is again first in Conference USA and 40th in the nation with only 326.8 ypg allowed, which has led to a league-best 21 ppg.
The Golden Eagles went from scoring a season-high 70 points versus UAB one week to squeezing out a season-low 17 in their victory last Saturday. Part of the reason why the Southern Miss offense had some struggles was because RB Damion Fletcher was not active due to a strained hamstring. Without him in the backfield the Eagles become rather ordinary, nowhere near the team that ranks second in the conference and 18th in the nation with 206.6 ypg on the ground. Without a healthy Fletcher here, they figure to continue struggling, especially against the Pirates defense.
East Carolina has allowed just 12 points and 233 yards of offense per game during their three-game winning streak. They can put a stranglehold on the C-USA East Division with a victory here, and according to our Power Ratings, they should be favorite, so we are able to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.
The Pirates have history on their side, as they are:
6-0 SU (+8 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.8 ppg) as an underdog;
15-1 SU (+6.1 ppg) & 15-0-1 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road underdog of less than 6 points
6-0 SU (+13.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+14.5 ppg) vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
On the other hand, Southern Miss is 0-4 ATS at home off a SU win the past 2 seasons. With a rookie head coach, the Eagles are likely to be overmatched and out-coached here, as the Pirates should pull out another close win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: EAST CAROLINA 27 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 21
3 STAR SELECTION
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2 over Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns get back on the road and into Sun Belt Conference play on Saturday as they battle the Owls at Lockhart Stadium. Louisiana-Lafayette saw their four-game winning streak come to an end this past weekend with a 37-24 home favorite loss to UTEP.
As for Florida Atlantic, they have won three straight games since losing five of their first six games. Last week, they enjoyed a convincing, 46-13 victory over North Texas.
With Louisiana-Lafayette, we are going to play AGAINST a favorite that is allowing more than 5 yards per rush on the season from October on.
We also note that they are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons vs. opponents on a winning streak and not and underdog of 13+ points;
0-3 ATS (-8.7 ppg) all-time vs. Florida Atlantic;
0-2 ATS all-time as a road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win
After a non-conference loss ended a conference winning streak, teams have had trouble getting back on track, as we expect the Rajin’ Cajuns to struggle as well. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points or underdog of 8+ points) with less than 16 days rest off a non-conference SU loss in its last game and 5 conference SU wins before that.
Since 1982, these teams are 0-14 ATS.
The Owls are the defending Sun Belt Conference Champs and they won’t go down without a fight here. Overall, Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) off a SU win of 18+ points.
Also, red-hot teams with an improving offense have been very strong in games with expected to be close by the wagering public. Specifically:
Play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of 3+ points) with less than 12 days rest off 3 SU wins scoring more points in each successive game and not seeking revenge for a SU Loss of 23+ points.
Since 1988, these teams are 12-0 ATS and Florida Atlantic now qualifies. The Owls appear to be peaking right now, and we look for them to live to fight another day, as they knock off the Rajin’ Cajuns.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
3 STAR SELECTION
Connecticut -10 over SYRACUSE
The Huskies look to get back in the win column Saturday night when they travel to take on the Orange in Big East play at the Carrier Dome. Connecticut opened this campaign with five consecutive wins, but since then the team has struggled, losing three of its last four matchups.
As for Syracuse, it has been a rough ride this season, as the team has lost seven of its nine contests, including a 35-17 setback to Rutgers last week. The Orange have struggled in the Big East since 2005, posting an ugly 3-23 ledger against league foes.
The Huskies' offense revolves around the ground game, which is churning out over 200 ypg. Donald Brown has been one of the top running backs in the nation, and is the main option for UConn, rumbling for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs. On top of the strong ground game, the Huskies also possess a surprisingly tough defense, which is limiting the opposition to just over 300 total ypg.
Coming into this matchup the Orange are producing a meager 285 total ypg, and that has led to less than 19 ppg. The defense has been even worse for Syracuse, as the Orange have been unable to stop the pass or the run, allowing 230 ypg through the air and over 200 ypg on the ground. All that yardage has led to a whopping 33.3 ppg against this unit.
While the Orange have nothing to play for, Connecticut still has bowl hopes and needs another win to make sure they get an invite. This will allow us to:
Play ON a "bubble team" vs. an opponent in or likely to be in a bowl game or a foe that doesn't have a chance of a bowl game in a non-rivalry game.
Teams fighting for bowl eligibility should be much more motivated than those teams already in and just trying to stay healthy, and against opponents that are already thinking about next year.
In looking at some numbers, the Huskies are:
2-0 SU & ATS all-time as a favorite with 6 SU wins’
5-0 SU (+13.8 ppg) & 4-0-1 (+4.9 ppg) all-time as a favorite with 6+ SU wins;
2-0 SU & ATS all-time as a favorite vs. Syracuse;
4-0 SU (+25.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+15.6 ppg) all-time as a road favorite off an ATS loss
After being an underdog for 5+ games as UConn has, the oddsmakers have had good reason to make a team a road favorite of more than a TD. With this line, the Huskies qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 7 on, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 7 points off being an underdog in its last 5 games and not 2 road contests in its last 2 games.
Since 1995, these teams are 11-0 SU (+26 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12 ppg)
On the other hand, Syracuse is:
0-3 SU & ATS as an underdog of 3+ points in its final home game;
0-4 SU & ATS as a home underdog vs. opponents off a SU loss since last season;
0-3 SU & ATS as a home underdog off its 7th SU loss of the season;
0-4 SU (-30.2 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a home underdog with 7+ SU losses;
0-6 ATS vs. opponents with 7+ days rest;
0-7 SU (-16.9 ppg) & 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) as a conference underdog of less than 11 points since 2003.
We expect Greg Robinson’s tenure in Syracuse to end with a whimper, as the motivated Huskies should control this game and the Orange from start to SU & ATS finish.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 34 SYRACUSE 14
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6.5* Oregon St
3* Notre Dame
3* S. Miss
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4) over NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team.
Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. Just last week, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple!
In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. Go with the Irish.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (-2) over East Carolina Pirates
The Golden Eagles were struggling but turned the corner two weeks ago. They had lost 5 straight games going into their contest with UAB on November 1st. We had been keeping close eye on USM because they had been playing very competitive football but seemed to come up just short. In their 5 losses leading up to Nov. 1st four of them came by six points or less. We were waiting for them to break out and they did at home vs. UAB winning 70-14. In that game they racked up 610 total yards and really started to feel good about themselves. Last week, USM traveled to Central Florida and kept the momentum flowing winning that game 17-6 out gaining the Knights by 130 total yards. After two straight wins, they now have a bowl berth in their sites but they need to win out to accomplish that feat.
ECU continues to be one of the most over rated teams in the country in our opinion. They were the talk of the town early in the year beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia to open the season. Remember though, neither of those teams played well early in the season and neither is as good as initially thought. Thus, those wins were not as impressive as everyone thought. The Pirates last few games were less than impressive against two struggling Conference USA teams. Last week ECU played host to Marshall and barely squeaked by 19-16 in overtime. The week before they went to Central Florida and barely got out alive winning 13-10 also in OT. This team has been poor on the road this year with their only two wins coming @ Tulane and @ Central Florida. Those two teams have a combined 4-14 record and ECU had to score a TD with under 2:00 minutes remaining the game in both just to keep pace.
The Pirates are struggling on offense right now and that is not a good thing facing the 16th ranked offense in the country in Southern Miss. The Eagles will possibly be without RB Damien Fletcher for this one which is a blow, however he didn’t play last week and Southern Miss still put up nice offensive numbers. If Fletcher plays it’s a bonus, if not, USM should still get the cover at home. The Eagles main problem has been on the defensive side of the ball, however head coach Larry Fedora has been very pleased with the last few games and the practices leading up to those games. They have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined and now face an ECU offense that has not topped 20 points in three of their last four games.
USM is really starting to play well and we’re catching some nice value with them at home in this game. Lay the small number here.
MARYLAND TERRAPINS (+3) over North Carolina Tar Heels
The Terps are coming off a loss suffered at Virginia Tech on a Thursday night; Maryland isn’t a great road team and Virginia Tech was able to shut them down and get the 23-13 win. North Carolina is coming off a deceiving 28-7 win vs. Georgia Tech, where it was 7-0 before the Tar Heels scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. N.C. gave up 326 rushing yards to Georgia Tech (6.0 yard average) and was out-gained by 109 total yards, but benefited from 3 turnovers by the Yellow Jackets and squeaked out the win at home.
After playing on Thursday night, Maryland will benefit from the extra 2-3 days of rest, and they also get the luxury of playing at home where they are 5-0 this year (4-1 ATS). North Carolina has played five of their last seven games at home, and will almost be a full month since their last road game (loss @Virginia). Last week was a huge win for the Tar Heels; it was their homecoming, they beat a good Georgia Tech team, and it put them at the top of the ACC Coastal division. After this big weekend, we see a BIG let-down when N.C. travels to Maryland.
Maryland has been solid at home where they are 37-13 SU at home since 2000. North Carolina is almost the exact opposite, where they are 13-31 on the road since 2000. Just last year N.C. was 0-6 on the road. N.C. is 2-1 on the road this season, but a touchdown with just 46 seconds gave them the win @Miami even though they were out-gained and out-played.
North Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings visiting Maryland, and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Maryland is 4-1 vs. the Tar Heels under Head Coach Ralph Friedgen, with the one loss coming last year 16-13. This will be a revenge game for the Terps, and we expect Maryland to come out of the gates hot, and stay hot, to get the easy win at home vs. the Tar Heels.
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30000 UNIT LOCK
HOUSTON COUGARS +4
You cannot trust a Tulsa team that is coming off their first loss of the season who doesnt play defense to lay points on the road against a good offensive team like Houston. It wouldnt surprise me if Houston won this game outright by 14 to be honest with you. Tulsa hasnt played anyone and the one real D-1 team they did play Arkansas easily beat them.Houston is better then people think and at home tonight they will get the outright. Take the points but look for the win.
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Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Two very similar teams facing each other today in a game that we expect to be a close one just like the line shows it. Vanderbilt have been struggling to score and have a record of 6-2 for the Under on grass surface game. Kentucky on the other hand were also struggling to score but last weekend they managed to score 38 points against Georgia but this score didn’t result on a winning day as they conceded 42 points. Today’s game is expected to be played under rain and that should be taken in consideration. Both teams have shown that defense is not their best skill and therefore we expect both teams to have scoring chances today which we expect to take the game Over the line.
Recommendation: 2* Over 38
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Here is a game where our system clearly says it’s going to be a high scoring one. Both teams are teams that score quite easily. Wisconsin has an average score of 35 points in their last 3 games. Minnesota is a team a little bit different. They are a team that knows how to close at the back but today they will have to change their strategy to face a very strong Wisconsin. For this game we expect the Over to be the safest outcome.
Recommendation: 3* Under 46.5
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NORTH CAROLINA (-30 1/2) over Penn
North Carolina is 47-20 ATS at home under coach Roy Williams and the loaded Tarheels aren't shy about running up the score. Non-conference opponents have had an even tougher time competing in Chapel Hill, as the Tarheels are24-4 ATS as a home favorite of 2 points or more (although just 3-2 ATS favored by 30 points or more). I'll lean with North Carolina based on their strong home court and incredible depth of talent, which is likely to extend the lead in garbage time.
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Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas St. Wildcats
Kansas St. Wildcats +7 -110
**9** Big XII Game of the Year (63.9% YTD)
This game could not set up much better for the Wildcats. They are coming off a game at Missouri where they simply could not match up which just so happened to take place in the same week that head coach Ron Prince was told he wasn’t coming back. Now Kansas St. heads home for a revenge game against the Huskers but this is not just any revenge spot. Kansas St. went to Lincoln last season and Nebraska put up 73 points on the Wildcats, the most points they have allowed since 1971. They haven’t forgotten.
Adding another element to this game comes from the Nebraska side. The Huskers are coming off a win over Kansas last week which was significant on their part. They were avenging a loss to the Jayhawks from last season where Kansas won 76-39. The 76 points the Jayhawks put up in Lawrence that day were the most ever scored against a Nebraska football team. Nebraska made it perfectly clear before the game they wanted payback and after the game they showed what a big game it was.
Three quotes from three players sum it up. “It's incredible. I can't even describe the feeling right now just because what happened down there last year, and where our team is heading this year, just to make a statement and beat them.” “It was awesome. It just feels so good to come back and redeem ourselves from what happened last year.” “It feels great. All the guys are really happy in the locker room. It was nuts for a little while after the game. It's a big win.” There is no chance the energy will be the same.
The Wildcats, despite the departure of their coach at the end of the season, are still in bowl contention. If they win this game and then next week against lowly Iowa St., they will become bowl eligible. It was a surprise to many of the players that Prince was let go and despite Prince saying the players were focused heading into Missouri last Saturday, they clearly were not. A week after the shock should prove different as the players respected and liked playing for Prince so they will put a full effort on the field Saturday.
Kansas St. has lost four straight games but three of those came on the road and the lone home loss was against Oklahoma. Most teams in the country would go 1-3 or 0-4 in that situation so it is certainly not a signal to the end of the season. This is the biggest game of the season and it happens to come against a longtime, hated rival making it even more special. Several Kansas St. players on Monday said that Prince has made it an objective this week to remind his team of the embarrassment the Wildcats felt a year ago. 9* Kansas St. Wildcats
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