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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
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6 Unit Play.Take South Carolina Gamecocks over Florida Gators Revenge Game of the Year.
No question Gators are playing outstanding football having won five straight games and if they win out they will be playing in Miami for the National Championship. Since their loss to Ole Miss (a side we had), most of their wins have seen seem score 45 points or more; however, the yardage just do not match up with that. This tells me that their opponents have turned over the football and played poorly on special teams. Now the Gators face one of the top defenses in the country and their former coach, a person who would like more then anything to beat them. Coach Spurrier has the talent and the knowledge to keep this game close. True they did lost 51-31 last year in Columbia, but one must remember that they were on a three game losing streak and with 10 starters back on defense they will not give up that many on Saturday. As for Spurrier, in revenge he has won 66% of the time. As a road dog of more then 16 points in conference play, when he already has a loss in the conference, he has covered in all 10 times it has happened. The Swamp is a tough place to play, so I cannot call the upset, but it will be much closer then what the experts think. Florida 28, USC 17.
4 Unit Play.Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Navy Midshipmen
The Irish have lost three of their last four games and now find themselves against the wall with pressure mounting on Coach Weis. Charlie will take over the play calling this week after being shutout by Boston College last Saturday night. He could not have picked a better time to make himself look good since Navy and Syracuse (next opponent) are two of the worst defenses in the country. If QB Clausen plays well, Notre Dame will win this game by double-digits. In Navy’s last game, Temple torched them for 340 yards passing. Navy had last week off but that did not help them against Pittsburgh earlier this season when they lost 42-21 coming off a bye. Navy one win in the last 44 years came last year in triple overtime but it may be another 44 years before they beat ND again, as the Irish just have too much talent and will cover this short line. Notre Dame 38, Navy 21.
4 Unit Play.Take Florida Atlantic Owls over UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
The Owls started the season looking like they may not win a game, as they lost five out of this first six games; however, as you checked the opponents you can see why. Things have turned around in their last three games and look for that to continue this week playing the Cajuns. Lafayette is undefeated in conference play; however, their defense has been a major concern for them all year and will once again be a problem. They are banged up on offense with QB Desormeaux and RB Fenroy have nagging injuries. The wrong team is favored and siding with the underdog is the only call. FAU 35, ULL 28.
4 Unit Play.Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over Alabama Crimson Tide
This choice is more going against the Tide then it is going with the Bulldogs. Bama is coming off a tough overtime victory against LSU and already have clinched a spot in the SEC Championship. I feel that a letdown is inevitable and the Tide will not be able to blow them out. Coach Croom played for Alabama and was turned down for the job a few years back and has taken out his frustration beating Bama the last two years. MSU had last week off to prepare and these schools are only 90 miles apart. The Dogs lack the offensive firepower to win straight-up; however, their defense will keep the scoring low in an SEC thriller. Bama 28, Miss St 14.
4 Unit Play.Take Wisconsin Badgers over Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Gophers are now going through what Wisconsin experience a month ago. Their last two losses have come at home against two squads many believe they should have beaten. But at further look this writer is not so certain that is the case. Minnesota played a weak non-conference schedule to pad their record to 7-1. In reality their only quality win came against Illinois, an up and down team. Now Minnesota goes on the road facing a team that is getting healthy and better. Minnesota has won just two of the last 13 meetings and will be without their top WR Eric Decker, who is out with a high ankle sprain. A win by Wisconsin will guarantee a bowl berth and this is their last meaningful game of the season since they close with Cal-Poly, a gimme game. Minnesota will see their misery continue, as Bucky and company roll on. Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 13.
6* S Carolina
5* Penn St
4* Ohio St
4* Notre Dame
4* S Miss
4* W Michigan
4* Fla Atlantic
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BIG EAST GAME OF MONTH
We are backing the Bulls here. So Fla was a darkhorse of mine to compete for the National Championship, after a fast 5-0 start, they ruined that by dropping 3 of 4. Still, Rutgers has absolutely no running to speak of. South Florida has a great D led by George Selvie, and an offense scoring 30 a game. Let's add the revenge factor of last season Rutgers 30-27 upset on ESPN, much like Pitt earlier this year to Bulls. Look for South Florida to control this game from the get-go and pour it on. Big East Game of the Month SOUTH FLORIDA
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5* Florida - Is there really anyone playing better right now? Maybe Oklahoma. Florida has a real chip on their shoulder, and its showing week in and week out. Since losing by a point, they have been winning by a score of 48 to 11. Thats an average victory of 37. While I expect Spurrier to have his troops ready, especially defensively, I just don't see S.C. scoring much. I like Florida 37-10. I also think this line is a little high, Vegas is trying to get people to take S.C.
ACC GAME OF MONTH
10* B.C. - Life isn't as bad without Matt Ryan as everyone though it would be. A win here gets them right into the ACC race. I think they have a lot of positive energy coming off a shut out win last week. Last year FSU went into #2 B.C. and beat them by 10. Now BC has the change to knock off FSU as a ranked opponent.
Do you remember last year S. Florida was #2 and went into RU and lost? Well S. Florida does. I think Matt Grothe is going to have a monster game here.
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Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Auburn – AiS shows an 82% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 9 or fewer points and has a 52% probability of winning the game. Placing a 2* amount on the money is an exceptional and optional opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Needless to say Auburn has had a very disappointing season to date, but a win here would at least give them some reward for persevering through this hellish season. The running game is back for Auburn. Although it was against Tenn-Martin Auburn rushed the ball 50 times for 290 yards getting back to simple fundamentals. Georgia is still feeling the effects of the 49-10 massacre at home from the Gators. They barely defeated a poor Kentucky team last week and their defense has yielded towns of yards. Most of the yards allowed are not occurring on the ground. 188 at LSU, 185 versus Florida, and 226 on 56 attempts at Kentucky. Auburn will be very successful running the ball. Supporting the money line play is an exceptional system with a losing record that has gone 44-52, but has made 63.7 units in profits since 1997 with the average play +263. Play on home dogs versus the money line after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Take Auburn.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Kelso's 100 unit play for Saturday
College Blowout Game Of Week Texas (-13½) over Kansas
It has been lost on most people that Texas (9-1)—and not Oklahoma and Texas Tech—has the best chance to get to the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns have lost only to Tech, 39-33, on a last second touchdown and have beaten Oklahoma. If OU beats Texas Tech in Norman next Saturday, Texas is all but on its way to the Big 12 championship game and excellent chance to play for the national title for the second time in three seasons. With that said, this is not to suggest Kansas (6-4) won come to play. The Jayhawks will but the figures say their best football is behind them and that KU quarterback Todd Reesing is far off his early season form. Texas has the best quarterback, the best running backs, the best overall offense and the best overall defense. The incentive factor for the Longhorns to fire their best shot here is off the charts and this game has blowout written all over it.Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
25 unit play as his Game of the Month
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BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK
I'm laying the points with KENTUCKY. Last week, I played on Kentucky as a medium-sized underdog vs. a good Georgia team. The Wildcats didn't quite pull off the upset but they did play very well and earned the cover. Now they take a big step down in class to face a Vanderbilt team which they have dominated recently and which is currently really struggling. The Commodores got off to a great start this season. However, things have taken a dramatic downturn in recent weeks, as they've now lost four straight games. I played against them at Mississippi State and they were upset as small favorites. That loss can be excused and their losses vs. Georgia and Florida certainly cane be. However, their recent home loss to Duke shows that the Commodores really are in bad shape at the moment. Keep in mind that this team was expected to finish last in the SEC, so the recent slump isn't all that surprising. Its true that the Commodores need one more win to become bowl eligible and therefore this is a big game for them. While that has helped keep the line very reasonable, just because the Commodores need to win doesn't mean that they will. Any longtime Vandy fan can tell you that! Besides, getting that sixth win at home against instate rival Tennessee would be even sweeter. Regardless, with it being Senior Day and Kentucky's home finale, their no shortage of motivation on the home side either. The Wildcats are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings in the series. That includes a 7-point win at Vanderbilt last season and a 12 point win here at Kentucky in 2006. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS the last 12 series meetings. Including last week's results, the Commodores are now 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in November since the start of the 2006 season. On the other hand, Kentucky is now 6-3 ATS and 5-4 SU in November during the same stretch. Early indications are that the weather may be nasty and that wouldn't hurt Kentucky's feelings. Either way, I look for the Wildcats to deliver a convincing victory on ESPN 2. *Blowout GOW
BIG 10 GAME OF WEEK
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. As you probably remember, the Illini won outright at Columbus last season. That has most expecting the revenge-minded Buckeyes to deliver a blowout win. I expect the Illini to give them everything they can handle once again though. The Illini have covered eight of their last 12 as home dogs and they've also gone 9-2 their last 11 home games overall. (Neither loss came by greater than 10 points.) The last three series meetings in this series, which were played here Champaign, were ALL decided by seven points or less. Ohio State won all three of those games but the victories came by an average of only five points and the Illinois were 3-0 ATS. The Illini, who are playing their home finale, still need a win to become bowl eligible. Look for them to deliver a huge effort, improving to 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they were getting points. *Big 10 GOW
MAIN EVENT BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH
I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. Recent results have given us excellent value with the home underdogs here. The Huskers certainly come in as the hotter team. That's because they've won Wildcats have lost four straight. However, a closer look shows that three of those games came on the road and that the lone home game during that stretch was against Oklahoma, one of the top teams in the entire country. Overall, they're 3-2 at home and the other loss here came against Texas Tech, a team which is also among the best in the country. I believe that this game will mean more to the Wildcats. I say this for several reasons. The obvious one is that they are at home and really want to snap their losing streak. However, there's also the matter of last year's game when the Huskers embarrassed them 73-31 at Lincoln. As for the Huskers, they're ripe for a letdown after last week's big 'revenge' win over Kansas, which happened to make them bowl eligible. I call that a 'revenge win' as the Jayhawks had routed the Huskers by a 76-39 score last year. Speaking of revenge, after a bye week next week, the Huskers face Colorado in their home finale. Nebraska fans will recall that the rival Buffaloes eliminated them from bowl contention, so that too is a 'revenge' game. In other words, off an extremely meaningful game and with another extremely meaningful game on deck, I feel that it will be easy to overlook the Wildcats. Note that Nebraska is just 3-9 its last 12 road games and that two of those wins came by three points or less. While the Huskers won here in 2006, they had lost their previous four trips here. While many people feel that the Wildcats have quit, I really believe that they will rise to the occasion and play hard for Coach Prince here. Senior defensive end Ian Campbell had this to say about the professionalism that Prince brings to the table: "He's been talking about (professionalism) and preaching about that since he came here Whether it has affected everybody or not, it has affected quite a few of the guys. Everybody's grades have dramatically improved. As far as I understand, our practices are conducted exactly how practices are in the NFL." While I'll gladly take the points, I look for a highly inspired effort from the Wildcats and for them to score the outright victory. *big 12 GOM
I'm taking the points with AUBURN. I successfully played against Georgia last week. The Bulldogs won but didn't cover at Kentucky. Once again, I believe that the Bulldogs are over- valued and playing in a difficult situation. That's because this is their second straight road game and they still figure to be smarting from their blowout loss at Florida before that. That was at Jacksonville. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played at LSU. That makes it four straight games that they've played away from home. Additionally, the Bulldogs should encounter an extremely motivated Auburn team. For starters, the Tigers hate the Bulldogs and are looking to get some payback from last year's loss. They're also looking to save their coach's job. Most importantly, this is their home finale and the Tigers know that they need a victory here in order to become bowl eligible. If not, they're going to have to win at Alabama next week, which figures to be an even tougher task. For all their struggles, the Tigers are still a talented team and they're still allowing only 16 points per game. Playing a huge game vs. a hated rival, look for the Tigers to step up with their best game of the season.
I'm taking the points with KANSAS. With a #4 ranking, the Longhorns are obviously a very strong team. That being said, I feel that this line is too high. I believe that the Jayhawks, who entered the season ranked #14 in the country, are better than the public believes and that they are currently under-valued. Yes, the Jayhawks have four losses. However, three of those losses came on the road and none came by more than two touchdowns. Their lone home loss came vs. Texas Tech and the Red Raiders have defeated every team they have faced, including Texas, thus far. The Longhorns have plenty of motivation, as they're trying to improve their position in the polls. The Jayhawks should also be extremely motivated though. For starters, they still have an outside shot at representing the North in the Conference Championship game. While that's a longshot, it still gives them something meaningful to play for. That's not all though. This is the Jayhawks' home finale - note that they're 8-3 their last 11 home finales. Additionally, the Jayhawks still haven't forgotten the last two meetings in this series. In 2005, they were destroyed at Texas. In 2004, in the most recent meeting here at Kansas, coach Mangino alleged after the game that an offensive pass interference call late in the game (against the Jayhawks) was the result of referees conspiring to keep the Longhorns alive in the BCS mix. Obviously, Mangino hasn't forgotten either of those games and he'd like nothing more than to have his team deliver a serious blow to the Longhorns. The Jayhawks have been terrific here the past few years and the loss to the Red Raiders was their first double-digit defeat here during that span. Look for them to bounce back and give a huge effort, improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times they were getting points.
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