TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Take Over 197.5 (POD) between Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Bobcats
It always raises an eyebrow when you see 73% of the public riding a road favorite. Such is the case with the new look Nuggets at Charlotte today in their first road game with Chauncey. It is obvious by the way that the Pistons got robbed in this deal. The "answer" known as Iverson is nothing more than a poison that infects good chemistry and I can understand Joe Dumars was looking to shake things up but all he has done is to have a winless Detroit Pistons team since the onset of Iverson. But, who knows, maybe it will take some time and they will get some chemistry soon. Listen, Charlotte can play. I know it's a pain to take them sometimes, but they lost to the Raptors at home and are on a bounce-back here and this is a game they could win outright at home as the Nuggets barely got passed the Grizzlies and Mavs. Heck, I think Charlotte can win this one as they beat the Hornets at home earlier in the year. Charlotte has not lost back to back games ATS this year either. This game is likely going over as well. Bottom line is, whenever I see 72% of the public on a team on the road, and I think the home team can win outright, I either take the dog or the over. I like the over here as I think it will be an up and down game and I also like the fact that the over is 4-1 for the Bobcats when they face a team with a losing road record. In short, Bobcats are competitive in this game and will push the total over as they likely win outright.
Take Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 over Utah Jazz
I don't know if you know this or not, but a big revenge game here for the 76ers. Remember, there is a reason why this line is -4 for the Sixers. Heck, the public prefers the Jazz here on the road at +4 slightly. But, the Sixers with last year's team got real close to defeating the Jazz so they have that bit of revenge angle. Both teams come off road losses as the Jazz lost to the Knicks on the road and the Sixers lost to the Magic on the road. Note, though that Okur is out for this game as is Harpring and Williams is doubtful. When you take all that into account plus the line movement towards Philly, a lean on the Sixers here to get it done after a loss which they have been typically very good in accomplishing. Jazz are just 1-4 ATS when they face winning teams on the road.
Take Under 196.5 between Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings
Look, I have to be frank. Detroit has not impressed me whatsoever. With the new look Pistons, they are 0-2. The Kings on the other hand are not a bad team. The Kings are 3-0 at home and 3-4 on the road. But, what is important is the fact that this team is undefeated at home and catching 7 points. The Pistons are on the public eye heavily and they are finding it very tough to cover any spread whatsoever. This team has covered 3 straight -3 spreads including Golden State, Minnesota and Memphis. This game likely goes over with the dog/over principle but the line has been steadily dropping. I like the points here with the Kings except fr the fact that Martin is listed OUT for this game which is extremely frustrating as otherwise, they would be a great play at home here. Nonetheless, a small lean on the under here. After all, without Martin, this team's scoring options are much more limited. Look, the bottom line for this game is that I really want to take the Kings. Heck, if Martin was playing you better believe this line would be Sacramento +3.5 or Sacramento +4.5 at home and I would be all over the Kings ML. But, Martin is not playing. So, that leaves me with one other option and that is to take the under. Who is going to score for the Kings? There is no more Bibby or Artest for this team. Moore? Salmons? I mean who will score for this team? Look for a half court game and a defensive battle as this game likely settles in the low 180's. The under is 8-2-2 whenever these two teams meet over the last 12 games and the under is 5-1 for the Kings after a straight up win of 10 points or more.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
DUKE (-27) over Georgia Southern
Duke has a history of success as a huge favorite under coach K, as his teams rarely let up with big leads and garbage time is actually time for his McDonald's All-American bench players to show that they can play. As a result, big leads usually become bigger leads when things get out of hand. Duke is 41-17-1 ATS as a regular season favorite of 23 points or more, including 34-11-1 ATS following a victory. The Blue Devils also apply to a very good 89-36-2 ATS game 2 situation if the line stays at -28 or less. Georgia Southern was a pretty decent team last season, but they lost 4 starters from that team, including assist machine Dwayne Foreman, who dished out over 6 assists per game. Losing a guy that averages 6 assists per game is more damaging than losing a guy that scores 20 points per game and I don't think the Eagles' offense is going to be nearly as good this season without Foreman leading that attack. The Eagles made just 38.7% of their shots last night in a win over a Houston team that’s on their way to a down season and they'll be overwhelmed by Duke's great defense tonight. My ratings favor Duke by 26 points and I'm not interested in giving up line value to force a Best Bet. I'll lean with Duke at -27 1/2 or less, and I'd take Duke in a 2-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
New York / San Antonio
Play:5* New York +3 1/2
San Antonio is only 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS overall this year. The Spurs are not the same team without Parker and Ginobilli. San Antonio is 10-23 ATS since 1996 in a home game when the total is between 195 and 199 1/2. New York is scoring 102.5 points per game overall and 100.5 points per game on the road this season. San Antonio is scoring only 87.3 points per game at home this year. San Antonio is allowing 105 points per game overall this year and 100 points per game at home this season. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Spurs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic. Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. We'll play New York for 5 units tonight!
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