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Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
1--WISCONSIN over Minnesota 38-13
1--BAYLOR over Texas A & M 41-20
2--NEVADA over San Jose State 44-20
3--LOUISIANA TECH over Utah State 41-17
4--OREGON STATE over California 31-24
4--IOWA over Purdue 31-6
5--Mississippi State (+) over ALABAMA 14-27
5--PENN STATE over Indiana 52-7
3--Ny jets (+) over NEW ENGLAND (Thursday) 20-19
4--Oakland (+) over MIAMI 17-22
4--Philadelphia over CINCINNATI 33-10
5--Detroit (+) over CAROLINA 23-27
5--SAN FRANCISCO over St. louis 31-17
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
TUE, NOV 11th
Ball St 8-1 weekdays… 5-1 L6 as RF’s… 9-2 off BB HG… 3-1 Game Ten… 0-4 as favs w/ con rev
MIAMI-OH SERIES: 3-1 L4… 3-0 bef Toledo… 5-1 Game Ten… 0-4-1 on Weekdays… 1-5 H w/ con rev… 1-4-1 as HD’s 3 > pts
THUR, NOV 13th
Virginia Tech SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 3-0 L3 A… 4-0 LRG… 13-3 on Thursdays… 10-3 A vs con opp w/ rev… 3-1 Game Ten… 6-2 as con dogs 10 < pts
MIAMI-FLA 0-5 weekdays favs 3 > pts… 1-11 w/ rest… 1-5 LHG… 1-4 H Game Ten… 3-9 w/ con rev
SAT, NOV 15th
Indiana 4-1 A off BB HG… 0-11 bef Purdue… 0-6 Game Eleven… 1-8 A w/ con rev… 2-6 as con dogs 21 > pts
PENN ST SERIES: 5-1 L6… 7-0 bef Mich St… 6-0 Game Eleven… 4-0 as con favs 21 > pts… 5-1 in 1st of BB HG… 2-8 vs con opp w/ rev
Northwestern 3-0 aft Ohio St… 7-3 as con RF’s… 1-9 bef Illinois… 2-5 A w/ con rev
MICHIGAN 6-1 aft RG vs Minnesota… 4-1 bef Ohio St… 0-3 LHG… 2-6-1 vs con opp w/ rev… 3-7 Game Eleven
N Carolina 6-1 bef NC State… 9-2 Game Eleven… 7-3 A w/ con rev… 1-4 aft Ga Tech
MARYLAND SERIES: 7-1 L8 / 3-0 L3 H… 4-1 in 1st of BB HG… 4-1 w/ con rev… 8-2 as con HD’s 7 < pts… 5-2 bef Flor St
Miss St SERIES: 10-3 L13 / 4-1 L5 A… 4-0 as con dogs > 21 pts…. 5-1 dogs w/ rest… 6-2 aft Kentucky… 3-1 Game Ten… 1-8 off SU fav loss
ALABAMA 2-9 in 1st of BB RG… 1-5 as con favs 20 > pts… 1-4-1 H w/ con rev… 2-8 aft RG vs LSU… 3-9 bef Auburn
Texas SERIES: 5-1 L6… 5-2 A aft Baylor… 1-5 LRG… 2-5 as con RF’s 7 > pts… 2-5 Game Eleven
KANSAS 5-0 LHG… 4-0 Game Eleven… 7-1 as HD’s 3 > pts… 3-9 vs .850 > con opp… 2-6 aft Nebraska
Missouri 6-1 vs con opp w/ rev… 0-3-1 vs .300 < con opp… 1-4-1 as DD RF’s… 2-6 favs 9 > pts Game Eleven… 2-5 bef Kansas
IOWA ST SERIES: 3-0 L3… 3-0 LHG… 6-1 as DD con HD’s… 7-3 vs .700 > con opp… 1-5 Game Eleven… 1-5 aft Colorado
California SERIES: 3-1 L4 A… 6-1 aft RG vs USC… 11-3 Game Ten… 7-3 A w/ con rev… 0-4 as con dogs 6 < pts… 1-5 in 2nd of BB RG
OREGON ST 4-1 H Game Ten… 7-2 con HF’s 6 < pts… 6-2 aft UCLA… 6-2 vs con opp w/ rev… 0-3 off 4+ SU wins
Georgia SERIES: 5-2 L7 A… 6-1 LRG… 5-1 Game Eleven… 4-1 aft Kentucky… 2-9 vs con opp w/ rev… 2-6 as con RF’s 8 > pts
AUBURN 5-1 off DD SU unlined win… 3-1 LHG… 1-6 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-5 as con HD’s 5 > pts… 2-9 Game Eleven
Byu SERIES: 4-0 L4… 5-1 A aft SD State… 4-1 A off SU con home W 28 > pts… 1-6 Game Eleven… 2-5 bef Utah
AIR FORCE 5-1 w/ con rev… 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS con HD 2 > points… 0-6 in 2nd of BB HG… 3-11 aft Colo St
S Carolina 6-1 as DD con dogs… 5-1 vs .850 > con opp… 5-2 in 1st of BB RG… 0-4 as dogs w/ con r ev… 2-5 Game Eleven
FLORIDA SERIES: 3-1 L4 H… 9-2 vs con opp w/ rev… 6-2 in 1st of BB HG… 3-1 aft RG vs Vanderbilt… 1-4 H before unlined HG
Boise St SERIES: 3-1 L4… 6-0 aft Utah St… 5-0 bef Nevada… 4-1 as RF’s 14 > vs opp off SU L… 6-3 Game Ten… 1-3 in 1st of BB RG
IDAHO 3-1 w/ con rev… 0-6 off SU L but ATS W… 0-4 Game Eleven… 2-8 w/ rest… 1-3 bef Hawaii
Usc 7-1 aft California… 6-1 A w/ con rev… 9-2 Game Ten… 6-2 bef Notre Dame… 1-4 as DD con RF’s
STANFORD SERIES: 3-1 L4… 1-6 as DD HD’s… 1-5 Game Eleven… 1-5 H vs con opp w/ rev… 1-4 bef California… 2-5 aft RG vs Oregon
Oklahoma St SERIES: 3-1 L4 A… 8-2-1 as con RF’s… 5-2 Game Eleven… 0-4-1 LRG… 0-3 aft Tex Tech… 2-5 in 2nd of BB RG
COLORADO 6-0 in 2nd of BB HG… 11-2 Game Eleven… 3-1 LHG… 6-2 as con HD’s 8 > pts… 7-3 aft Iowa St
Ohio St 4-0 w/ con rev… 3-0 LRG… 1-4 aft N’Western… 2-7 bef Michigan
ILLINOIS SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 3-0 L3 H… 6-1 vs con off non con gm… 2-8 vs con opp w/ rev…
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
Thursday, Nov 13th
NY Jets 8-0 vs div opp off DD SU div win… Visitor in Pats’ series 17-3 (1-0 this year)… 11-2 RD’s off DD ATS win vs opp off SUATS win… 0-4-1 Thursdays… 2-11 Game Ten… MANGINI: 6-1 RD vs div opp (1-0 this year)
NEW ENGLAND SERIES: 7-2 L9 (1-0 this year)… 10-0 off SUATS win & BB unders vs div opp… NOV: 11-2 vs div opp off SUATS win… 10-2 H vs .666 > opp off DD SU win… 4-1 Game Ten… 4-2-1 Thursdays… NOV: 1-8 favs off div game vs opp w/rev… BELICHICK: 11-2 vs div opp off SUATS win
Sunday, Nov 16th
Denver 6-2 RD’s aft scoring 34 > pts… 5-1 Game Ten… 1-9 off BB non div games… NOV: 1-7 off SU dog win
ATLANTA 0-10 H off BB SU wins… 0-7 off BB SUATS wins (0-1 this year)… 0-3 Game Ten… 1-10 .500 > off DD ATS win vs .500 > opp… NOV: 1-6 H off BB SU wins
Oakland SERIES: 2-6 L8... 6-2 Game Ten… 4-16 A vs opp w/rev
MIAMI NOV: 8-1 vs non div opp off BB SU losses… 9-3 Game Ten… 2-17 HF’s 7 > pts off SU win
Baltimore SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 3-0 L3 A… NOV: 7-1 vs opp off SU dog win… 18-3 vs opp who won 8 > games LY off DD SU dog win… 4-1 Game Ten… 0-6 2nd BB RG’s off non div DD ATS win… NOV: 1-6 A off BB SUATS wins… 1-5 A aft scoring 35 > pts… 3-15 A off BB SU wins & scored 30 > pts LG
NY GIANTS 8-0 HF’s 3 > pts off BB SU wins vs .625 > opp… 7-0 off SU win vs .500 > opp off SU dog win… 11-1 H off BB SU wins vs opp off SU dog win… NOV: 2-13 vs opp off DD SU win… 2-10 Game Ten
Houston NOV: 6-1 vs opp off BB SU wins… 8-1 < .500 off BB SUATS losses (1-0 this year)… 6-1 off BB SU losses vs opp off dog game… NOV: 6-1 div dogs… 11-2 dogs off BB SU losses vs div opp (1-0 this year)… 0-6 A of SU H loss… 1-12 A off H game (0-1 this year)
INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 3-1 L4 H… 9-1 off SU win vs opp off SU fav loss… 7-3 Game Ten… DUNGY: 10-2 off SU win vs opp off SU fav loss
Tennessee NOV: 7-0 A off SUATS win vs opp w/rev… SU winner in Jaguars’ series 25-2 (1-0 this year)… 1-9 RF’s < 3 pts off SU win (1-0 this year)… NOV: 1-9 .500 > vs opp off DD SU win… 3-0 OVER Game Ten
JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 1-3 L4 (0-1 this year)… NOV: 7-1 vs opp off BB SU wins… Del RIO: 23-9 as dog
Chicago 5-2 Game Ten… 0-6 .500 > vs opp off BB SU losses
GREEN BAY SERIES: 1-4-1 L6 / 0-3-1 L4 H… 1-4 UNDER Game Ten
Philadelphia 8-0 A off div game (1-0 this year)… 13-1 aft Giants… 4-2 Game Ten… 0-5 .500 > favs w/rev vs non div opp… REID: 7-1 .500 > off SU fav loss vs < .500 opp
CINCINNATI SERIES: 7-0 L7… 7-0 off SU win vs NFC East… 8-1 off SU dog win vs .500 > NFC opp… 4-23 when lose SU 2nd BB HG’s… 2-8 Game Ten… 2-7 w/rest vs opp off SU loss
New Orleans NOV: 10-1 A off DD ATS loss… 9-2 A aft Falcons… 1-10 favs off DD ATS loss… 1-6 Game Ten
KANSAS CITY 4-0 H off DD ATS win w/rev… 1-5 < .500 H off 3 SU losses (1-0 this year)… EDWARDS: 8-2 off div vs non div opp off SUATS loss… 1-7 UNDER Game Ten
Detroit 14-2 A off DD SUATS non div loss… 0-4 UNDER Game Ten
CAROLINA 7-1 H off BB SU wins vs < .500 opp… 0-6 off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss w/rev… 0-6 favs off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU loss… 1-7 off SU win vs opp off SU loss 14 > pts w/rev… 2-4 Game Ten
Minnesota SERIES: 1-4 L5 / 0-5 L5 A… 2-13 RD’s off BB SU wins vs non div NFC opp
TAMPA BAY 14-2 Game Ten… 2-5 HF’s w/rest
St. Louis SERIES: 1-6 L7 / dog 6-1… 15-1 vs < .500 opp off DD & BB SU losses… 1-10 < .500 vs div opp (0-2 this year)… 1-6 Game Ten
SAN FRANCISCO 12-0 favs < 14 pts vs Rams… 7-0 w/rev vs div opp off BB SU losses… 6-0 favs w/rev vs div opp off BB SU losses… 1-3 UNDER Game Ten
Arizona 3-0 Game Ten… 1-12 .500 > w/rev vs div opp… 3-20 .500 > vs opp off SU loss & scored < 22 pts BB… 2-8 .500 > off div game (1-0 this year)
SEATTLE SERIES: 3-0 L3 H… 7-0 off BB SU losses vs .500 > opp (1-0 this year)… 2-6 Game Ten
San Diego SERIES: 1-5 L6 / 1-8-1 L10 A… 9-0 dogs 4 > pts vs .600 > opp… 4-1 OVER Game Ten
PITTSBURGH NOV: 7-0 H off non div game vs opp off SU win… 10-1 off SU fav loss w/rev vs < .500 opp… NOV: 7-1 off SUATS loss w/rev vs opp off SU win… 3-7 Game Ten
Dallas 11-1 off DD SU loss vs div opp off SU loss… 10-2 RD’s vs div opp off SUATS loss… 10-4 w/rest vs opp off SU loss… 0-5 vs .600 > opp off SU loss… PHILLIPS: 1-6 dog vs opp off SUATS loss… 3-6 UNDER Game Ten
WASHINGTON SERIES: 6-1 L7 (1-0 this year)/ 3-0 L3 H… 5-0 HF’s 10 < pts off DD SU loss… 13-5 w/rest .500 > … 0-9 favs off DD SU loss bef BB NFC games… NOV: 1-13 off non div vs opp off SUATS loss… NOV: 1-8 vs div opp off DD SU loss… 2-11 H off SU loss w/rev & O/U 42 > pts… 3-7 UNDER Game Ten
Monday, Nov. 17th
Cleveland 15-1 RD’s 9 < pts when O/U > 40 pts (3-0 this year)… NOV: 7-2 vs .500 > opp (0-1 this year)… 5-2 Game Ten… 1-6 A off SU loss & BB HG’s
BUFFALO 6-0 H vs < .500 opp… NOV: 11-1 HF’S vs non div opp… 14-2 aft Patriots (11-0 aft RG)… 8-2 H Mondays… 4-0 OVER Game Ten
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
Temple 27 - KENT STATE 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Owls in off ultimate loss. Led
Navy 27-7 with 9:15 left. Lost 33-27 in OT. Held previous 4 foes to 57 RYpg.
Kent awakening (238 RYpg last 5 tilts), but can't compete, defensively. Owls.
Central Michigan 20 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- CM +120½
pts ATS in last 16 MAC gms. Check Brunner for LeFevour LW: 485 PYs, 4
TDs. Visitor is 6-2 ATS in Husky tilts, but allowing 8.2 ppg 5 of last 6 games.
Buffalo 31 - AKRON 27 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Little to choose, as both balanced,
behind quality QBs & RBs. Bulls: Willy (17/4) & Starks (177 RYs LW); Zips:
Jacquemain (3 TDs vs Toledo) & Kennedy (905 RY TY). Akron at 259 RYpg
last 3 tilts, but visitor is 7-0 ATS in Buffalo games & 7-2-1 ATS in Akron games.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 24 - Virginia Tech 23 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Hokies rolled easily LY
(Wise Points), but not that easy this time around. A 197-78 RY edge for 'Canes
in OT win over VA (Cooper: 131 yds), & own #14 "D". Tech a 285 RY edge vs
MD (Evans: 254 yds), with returning Glennon a pleasant 14-of-20. To the wire.
UNLV 30 - Wyoming 24- (9:00 - CBSC) -- 'Pokes have come from double digit
spread losses in each of their first 7 games, to 19½ & 32 pt covers the past 2
wks (Moore: 372 RYs last 2). And check allowing only 88 RYpg last 4. Rebs
in off snapping 5-game slide, despite 232-55 RY deficit. Series pup yaps again.
LOUISVILLE 27 - Cincinnati 24 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- A 5-0 TO deficit for Cards in
41-7 loss to Pitt, with just a 21-yd deficit. 'Ville nicely balanced, behind Cantwell
& Anderson, with only Syracuse running on 'em. Cincy blew 20-7 lead over WVa
in final 1:11, before OT win. Solid "D", but no running "O", & lost last RG 40-16.
PENN STATE 52 - Indiana 7 - (12:00) -- No perfect season for Lions, who lost on
final play at Iowa, with Clark at just 39%. Still a 399-124 pt edge TY, supreme
balance, & nation's #6 "D". Indy off 3 HGs, on 1-9 ATS slide (by 118 pts), & in
off a 239-RY deficit. Sieve of a "D" won't stand a chance vs this bouncebacker.
IOWA 31 - Purdue 6 - (12:00) -- Call reversal of LY's Boiler win. Hawks just 1 pt
from 5-0 ATS run, with only Wisc & PennSt topping 130 RYs. Covered last
HG by 18, & Greene a stellar 6.1 ypr TY. Purdue: just 93 yds vs MichSt, until
final drive, after compiling 522 previous week, with losing season now assured.
MICHIGAN 24 - Northwestern 23 - (12:00) -- Wolves striving to avoid first-ever
8-loss season. Mich "D" came from 25-FD & 522-yd display, to 8-FD & 188-yd
effort, but can't light "buy sign" that quickly. 'Cats: 220-68 RY edge at Minny 2
weeks back; & QB Kafka: 30-of-53, along with 300 RYs the past 2 wks. Pass.
WISCONSIN 38 - Minnesota 13 - (3:30) -- Badger overland dominance is back.
Check a 637-142 RY edge past 2 wks, behind Gilreath (21.0 ypr LW), & Hill.
And throw in 34-17 ppg edge in last 7 HGs. Minny falling fast: 220-68, 232-83
RY deficits last 2 wks. Gophers are 5-0 ATS away by 77 pts of late. Forget it.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 24 - Wake Forest 20 - (3:30) -- Home series, &
Wake not at its best on Nov road. 'Pack snapped 4-game slide at Duke, & now
has 4 straight covers, with Wilson at 9 TD passes last 5 tilts. Undependable,
overland, & 'Deacs in off 1.6 ypr defensive showing. But Wake also can't run.
CLEMSON 22 - Duke 21 - (12:00) -- Now 5 losses for Tigers (#9 in pre-season),
with just 21, 51, 87, 79 RYs last 4 outings, & Harper struggling. Try a 1-9 ATS
slide. Imps averaging just 87 RYpg last 7 games, so it seems like QB Lewis, or
nothing (317 PYs in loss to NCSt). Visitor is 4-0 ATS in Duke tilts, by 47 pts.
North Carolina 26 - MARYLAND 23 - (3:30) -- Terps totally outclassed at VaTech,
with 273-(-12) RY deficit (Scott: from 5.5 ypr to 1.1), with their only TD on a 63
yd pass. Tars were taken, overland by GaTech, but held previous 3 foes to just
62 RYpg. Plus 16 TO edge so far, & note last 2 RGs decided by 4, 3 pts SU.
Notre Dame 38 - Navy 24 - (12:00 - CBS - @ Baltimore) -- Five TOs (4 Clausen
INTs) killed the Irish at BC, despite holding the Eags to just 13 FDs & 246 yds.
Can't run, but ceding just 17 ppg in 10 of last 11 tilts. Rested Mids have a 591
RY edge last 2 games, but have allowed 27+ pts 14 times since LY. Revenge.
Connecticut 24 - SYRACUSE 19 - (7:00) -- Fourth straight losing season for
Robinson. Bye-bye. Orange plus 25½ pts ATS last 5 tilts, but in off 27-7 FD,
& 483-165 yd deficits, with QB Dantley hurting. UConn: 5-0 TO deficit in 35-13
loss to WVa (4.8-4.2 ypr edge, with Brown at 1,406 RYs). But a host series.
ALABAMA 27 - Mississippi State 14 - (12:30) -- 'Tide nearly saw it get away,
before OT win (& cover) at Lsu. A nice 126 RYs for Coffee (6.3 ypr) in that one,
& check owning 4th rated "D". But the visitor is 20-9 ATS in 'Bama games, &
Bulldogs, who rank 19th, are super series guests. Revenge sandwich for Tide.
KENTUCKY 24 - Vanderbilt 17 - (8:00) -- Late Cobb INT prevented 'Cat upset of
Georgia. Check UK with season-high 226 RYs vs 'Dawgs' #7 running "D".
History repeating for 'Dores, whose 5-0 start now stands at 5-4. Rank 118th in
total "O", with only pts LW coming vs Florida's reserves. In 2nd of 4 revengers.
BAYLOR 41 - Texas A&M 20 - (4:00) -- Payback time for Bears, who are one of
the most improved teams in the land, behind Griffin. Forget LW's 9 FDs, but
check 26 FDs & 438 yds vs Missouri, in last HG, & +41½ pts ATS in last 2
hosters. Sieve Aggie "D" in off 653-yd effort, & at 44 ppg last 6 outings. Lay it.
COLORADO STATE 31 - New Mexico 21 - (2:00) -- Double payback time for the
Rams (Wise Points), who've covered their last 4 HGs by 9, 11, 10, & 12 pts.
Consistency. Last game for Lobos, with losing season now assured, despite
262 RYpg 4 of last 5. Note the host covering last 4 NMex games by 73½ pts.
WESTERN MICHIGAN 45 - Toledo 20 - (2:00) -- No running game for the 8-2
Broncos, but Hiller now at 30/5 (TDs to INTs), & in off 301-PY effort in upset of
Illinois. Rockets playing out the string, losing last 2 RGs by a combined 85-37.
LOUISIANA TECH 41 - Utah State 17 - (2:30) -- 'Dogs turned tables on visiting
ineptness, with throttling of SJSt, allowing 6 FDs. Now a 497-93 RY edge last
2 wks, & splendid home play. Ags can't run, & in off a 563-yd defensive effort.
SO MISSISSIPPI 24 - East Carolina 23 - (3:00) -- Eagle bowl hopes still alive,
with consecutive wins (8-0 TO edge & 6 rushing TDs for Davis). Rank 10th on
"O", but 100th on "D". And covered last HG by 48 pts. Pirates: just 1 TD in
each of last 2 tilts, but Pinkney is back (26-of-37 LW). Certainly not involved.
Uab 33 - TULANE 21 - (3:00) -- "Walking Wounded" moniker certainly fits Wave,
which has been devastated by the injury bug, especially in the skill positions
(from 318 RYs vs Utep to 56 RYpg 3 games since). Nearly a 700-yd defensive
display LW. Blazers lost last RG 70-14, allowing 463 RYs, but at least healthy.
Texas 48 - KANSAS 24 - (12:30) -- Last 2 Jay HGs ATS: 42-pt loss, 23-pt cover.
This looks more like the former, as KU has run on only KanSt, with too much of
the burden on Reesing (23/10). 'Horn bounceback effort vs Baylor produced
30-9 FD edge, with 5 TDs from McCoy (28/7 & 78%). Jay "D" 41 ppg last 4.
Missouri 45 - IOWA STATE 10 - (6:30) -- Killer loss for us with Tigs LW, as they
gave up 93-yd TD run in final 1:11, while leading 41-10. Daniel just 5/4 last 2
wks, but still 28/10 for the year. Eight straight losses for Cycs (40 ppg "D" in
last 7), who were stopped at the goal mouth on final play vs Colorado. Romp!
OREGON STATE 31 - California 24 - (3:30) -- First of 4 revengers to wind up the
season for Cal, which is minus 31½ pts ATS in its last 3 RGs, & in off 250-yd
deficit vs USC. Beavs just 4 pts from 7-0 SU run, with Rodgers setting new
Pac10 frosh rushing record (1,085 yds). Note OSU plus 98 pts ATS last 7 tilts.
OREGON 34 - Arizona 33 - (6:30) -- That 'Cat "O" did its part LW (59 pts, 189
RYs from Grigsby), but its 18th ranked scoring "D" was mauled for 28 pts by
hapless WashSt. Not many breathers for Ducks, lately, beating Stanford on 3
yd run in final 0:06, despite 307 RYs (4 fumbles). And this isn't any different.
Ucla 30 - WASHINGTON 21 - (10:15) -- Bruin overland woes continue: 323-63,
250-86, 232-16, 201-48 RY deficit last 4 games. Have dropped 6 of last 8, &
rank #104 in total "O". Huskies winless (0-9), with a 40 ppg "D" over their 12
games, allowing >230 RYs in all but 2 tilts TY. But can Bruins take advantage?
Georgia 24 - AUBURN 17 - (3:30) -- What's happened to that 'Dawg "D"? Held
8-of-9 foes below 18 pts, before 38, 49, 38 pt exhibits last 3 wks. And its run
"D" is being had. Stafford: from 3 INTs vs Fla, to 3/0 vs Ky. Tigs snapped 4
game slide LW, but note 692-280 RY deficit last 3 lined tilts. No "O", good "D".
AIR FORCE 34 - Byu 27 - (3:30) -- Coogs got it to 41-6 vs SDSt with 10 minutes
left, but no cover. That's 6 straight ATS, despite 12 Hall (32/7) TD tosses last
3 wks. Normally take Falcons with ease, but the 'Force keeps paying off, with
frosh pair of Clark & Jefferson leading the way, & Byu minus 51½ pts away TY
FLORIDA 45 - South Carolina 14 - (3:30) -- No team has topped 24 pts in SC's
last 11 outings. On 6-1 SU run (LSU: 24-17), but its rushing "O" at just 85 ypg
last 5, & will need all weapons, if it wants to stay with this machine. Check a
243-57 pt Gator edge since loss to OleMiss. Tebow: 10 TDs last 2 wks. Rout.
NEVADA 44 - San Jose State 20 - (4:00) -- Spartan bubble has burst, big time.
Overland game a joke, & in off 6 FD, 148 yd home effort. 'Pack burning it up,
overland, with a 2,085-401 yd edge in last 6 outings (472 RYs in easy win at
Fresno, including 263 by Tuau). And throw in revenge for LY's heartbreaker.
MARSHALL 30 - Central Florida 17 - (4:30) -- Amazing 239-121 pt deficit for
UCF in lined tilts TY, while running for 4, 63, 88, 64 yds last 4 outings. Thus, a
Herd play, as they covered last HG by 21½, & RB Marshall is motoring of late.
Boise State 55 - IDAHO 10 - (5:00) -- Broncos looking BCS bowlward again, as
befits a 9-0 squad. Threw for 458 yds in rout of UtahSt, with 4 players throwing
for TDs. Vandals suddenly a mini-force, with 215, 271, 220 RYs 3 of last 4
(McCarty: 228 last 2), & 2-0 home by 20½ pts ATS. But Boise at best on road.
Tulsa 48 - HOUSTON 38 - (8:00) -- Katie, bar the door! Rested 'Canes bring #1
"O" into town. Check 528 yds in loss to Arkansas, & Johnson at 33/10. But
Coogs also on fire, with 2,851 yds last 5 games, including 693 vs Tulane. Note
10 straight 300-yd passing games from Keenum (29/9). So fireworks galore!
FRESNO STATE 34 - New Mexico State 17 - (5:00) -- Can anyone seriously
consider taking either side? Eight straight ATS losses for FSt (-63 pts ATS last
3 HGs), & in off 472-RY, 600-TY defensive display. But Ags managing just 29
RYpg last 4 outings, & minus 126½ pts ATS 10 of last 11 contests. Interested?
So California 40 - STANFORD 10 - (7:00) -- Troy has a 227-23 pt edge since its
loss to OregSt. A 411-165 yd edge vs Cal, yet a mere 17-3 win (10-3 late).
Cards, who lost in last 0:06 at Oreg, have run for 239 ypg in their last 7 games,
& have 9 takeaways in their last 2 tilts. But check Wise Points for motivation.
Nebraska 38 - KANSAS STATE 27 - (3:30) -- Defenseless 'Cats have allowed
151 pts in their last 3 games, ranking 109th on "D". Broke our hearts with 93
yd TD run in final 1:11, while behind Mizzou, 41-10. Huskers lighting it up, with
Ganz at 1,543 PYs last 5 games, & with 9.8, 7.2 ypr for Helu the past 2 weeks.
Oklahoma State 40 - COLORADO 17 - (8:00) -- Men against 'Boys (literally) in
OkieSt pulverization at hands of TexTech. On wrong end of 38-19 FD & 629-
368 yd edges, forcing zero punts. Chance to take out frustrations here, as CU
was at just 12 ppg, before nosing out IowaSt (goal line stand on the final play).
SOUTH FLORIDA 26 - Rutgers 24 - (12:00) -- Let's see. Knights have covered
their last 5 games, including a 30-pt payoff in last RG, with 9 TD throws from
QB Teel past 2 games. And try 207 RYs LW, from formerly 107th run "O". Bull
QB Grothe, by comparison, has 5 INTs last 2 games. Revenge, but no cover.
FLORIDA STATE 30 - Boston College 13 - (8:00) -- Eagle win over NoDame
due to 5-0 TO edge, as that BC "O" is struggling. Just 11 & 13 FDs last 2 wks,
& 97 RYpg last 5 outings. Balanced 'Noles (202 RYpg, 191 PYpg) just an
endzone fumble from 6-game run (10 TOs in their 2 losses). Better team call.
Ohio State 38 - ILLINOIS 17 - (12:00 - ABC) -- Illini represented Big10 in Rose
Bowl LY, but just 5-5 in '08, with an 88 RYpg "O" 4 of last 5 outings, & Juice just
20/13. Buckeye "O" finally awakening, with 45 & 45 pt efforts in last 2 RGs
(34½ & 23½ pt covers), behind Wells & Pryor (3 TDs at NW). Revenge again.
Utah 49 - SAN DIEGO STATE 7 - (8:00) -- Perfect Utes in TCU/BYU sandwich,
but chance to explode after pair of 13-10 wins. Were at 41 ppg before those 2.
Aztecs enter with a 260-80 pt deficit over their last 6 games, ranking 107th on
"O", as well as 114th on "D". Ran for 226 yds in last HG, but not even close hr.
UTEP 47 - Smu 27 - (9:00) -- Fifteen consecutive C-USA losses for Ponies, who
own 120th last rushing "O" (306-38 RY deficit LW). And now QB Mitchell is
ailing (shoulder). And how about allowing 42 ppg in last 7 RGs? Enter Miner
QB Vittatoe with 22 TD passes in his last 6 games. LY's wrencher not avenged.
ARIZONA STATE 50 - Washington State 10 - (5:30) -- Six-game slide of Suns
now history, with rout of Washington. Only 67 RYpg 5 games prior to that one,
& an 81-30 pt deficit in Devils' last 2 HGs. But Coogs stand at 1-8 ATS by 202
pts, with a 493-91 pt deficit in lined games this year. Agony is simply extended.
Northern Illinois 31 - Kent State 21 - (7:00) -- Kent 1-13-1 ATS run belies fact
that Flashes own 13th ranked run "O" in nation (282 RYpg last 2, for example).
But NIU "D" at 8 ppg, prior to BallSt massacre. Call it near line & LY's outcome.
Ball State 34 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 20 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Cards perfect, as
of this writing, with 3 more Davis TDs (19/5) vs solid NIU "D", in latest impressive
outing. Central bookends this edition. Very decent, but step down from last 2 yrs.
Middle Tenn St 24 - WESTERN KY 13
FLA ATLANTIC 31 - Lafayette 30
MISSISSIPPI 47 - La-Monroe 17
LSU 26 - Troy 17
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
NEW YORK JETS over New England RATING: 3
OAKLAND over Miami RATING: 4
PHILADELPHIA over Cincinnati RATING: 4
DETROIT over Carolina RATING: 5
SAN FRANCISCO over St Louis RATING: 5
New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Why not? The Jets
have the revenge factor in their corner, with just a 4-yd deficit in first meeting. A
week ago, NY scored on its 1st 8 drives, vs hapless Rams. Led 40-0 at the half.
Check Jets run "D" at 55 ypg last 2 outings. Pats in off dominating Bills (24-10
FD, 37:40-22:20 time, 370-168 yd edges), but has yet to follow SU/ATS win with
a cover. The division visitor in Jet games is on 6-0 & 14-3 ATS runs, with series
visitor an amazing 17-2 ATS. And NY is 8-0 vs a division foe off a DD SU victory.
ATLANTA 30 - Denver 20 - (1:00) -- Hard to believe that the defenseless Broncs
(#29 "D") sit atop the AFC West, but their 564 yds in win at Cleveland staked
them to that perch. Cutler: 447 PYs & 3 TDs, including the winner in the final
1:14. But Denver still minus 47½ pts ATS in last 3 RGs. Falcs continue to
impress, especially with their 118-75 pt edge at home. Check holding Saints
w/o a TD until final 10 minutes. Ryan: 33-of-45 last 2, & check #1 rushing "O".
Ten years ago, Denver beat Atlanta in Super Bowl XXXIII, but no such repeat.
MIAMI 22 - Oakland 17 - (1:00) -- Three straight wins for Dolphs, who couldn't
maintain early 14-0 lead in eventual 21-19 win over Seattle. Check Ricky over
100 RYs for 1st time since 1-1-06, along with a 51-yd TD run. That narrow
escape pushes dog edge in Miami games to 7-0 ATS by 98½ pts, by the way.
Raiders w/o a TD in last 2 wks, but came from a 30-3 FD deficit, to a 17-10 FD
edge in a week, while picking Delhomme 4 times. Miami has the Patriots on
deck, so note its 1-9 ATS log as a HF of >3 pts. We'll grab the 12 pts in this.
NEW YORK GIANTS 27 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Meeting of NFL's 2nd & 3rd
ranked "D"s, along with #1 (Giants) & #3 (Ravens) running offenses. Ravens
have but a single ATS loss, with a 687-257 RY edge in their last 4 games, &
check 24-0 & 22-0 windups in their last 2 outings, along with a 7-0 INT edge in
their last 4 contests. Catching NY off wars with Steelers, Cowboys, & Eagles
is nice, but note Giants' 401-300 yd edge, along with a 39:10-20:50 time edge
over Philly, with another 126 RYs from Jacobs. And NY is on a 13-2 ATS run.
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Houston 26 - (1:00) -- Call for near repeat score of 1st
meeting, in which Texans (+3) saw 27-10 lead with 4:05 left, turn into 31-27
loss, with 2 Rosenfels fumbles the key. Well, he is back for the injured Schaub,
& tossed 4 INTs vs Baltimore LW, & check 162-75 RY deficit. But Colts, who
took Pitt in final 3:04 LW, have topped 100 RYs only once, & rank dead last in
the NFL in overland production. Indy is a 3-9-1 ATS play vs division opponents
of late, & is 13-27 ATS as division HF. And Houston owns NFL's 4th best "O".
JACKSONVILLE 20 - Tennessee 19 - (1:00) -- Revenge call for the Jags, who
not only dropped their opener to the Titans, but were mauled overland, 137-33.
Tennessee is still perfect, despite managing a paltry 20 RYs at Chicago, with
Collins a smooth 30-of-41 for 289 yds & 2 TDs. Now 7-1-1 ATS (+76 pts), as
well. But check J'Ville with 157 RYs vs the Lions (2nd best showing of the
year), with 3 TDs for Jones-Drew. Also note 7 sacks. The dog is 10-1-1 ATS
in Jag gms, while J'Ville is 7-1 ATS in Nov vs an opponent off 2 or more wins.
GREEN BAY 27 - Chicago 24 - (1:00) -- Consecutive losses for the Pack, who
now have dropped 5-of-7 on the field, with last 3 setback by 3, 3 (OT), & 1 pt.
Went down in last 2:22 at Minny, while managing just 1 offensive TD (INT, punt
returns), with only 12 FDs & 184 yds. Bears held Titans to mere 20 RYs in that
21-14 loss, & have now held 5 foes to 54 RYs or less. Dog is 8-3-1 ATS in
Bear games, so worth a shot, despite Grossman over center. FG decides it.
Philadelphia 33 - CINCINNATI 10 - (1:00) -- Giant/Raven sandwich setup for
the Eagles, who have held 4 opponents to 7.5 ppg, while allowing 30 ppg in
their other 9 games. Cincy, which ranks 32nd & last in moving the ball surely
qualifies as a member of the first group. First of six killers for the Bengals, who
barely snuck past the Jags, after leading 21-0 after 3. Fitzpatrick more comfy
at QB, but not vs Eagles, who feast off this type, and are 13-1 ATS off Giants.
New Orleans 33 - KANSAS CITY 23 - (1:00) -- That Saint "O", which ranks #1 in
the NFL, didn't manage a TD at Atlanta, until the game's final 9:54. Brees, who
is no stranger to Arrowhead, has tossed for 761 yds in NewOrleans' last 2
games, but note 9 INTs for the season. KC in off 3 straight heartbreaks: 28-24,
30-27, 20-19, missing the 2 pt try in final 0:13 at SanDiego. But Thigpen is a
silver lining (27-of-41 with 3 TD passes & no picks vs the Chargers). Chiefs
are 38-14 ATS as HDs lately, but this is their smallest dog spot since last year.
CAROLINA 27 - Detroit 23 - (1:00) -- Let's see. The Panthers won their last
home game by a score of 27-23, while the Lions dropped their last road game
by a score of 27-23. Sometimes, it's so simple. Seriously, Carolina's win over
Oakland was a joke, with Delhomme a miserable 7-of-27 for just 72 yds, with 4
INTs. Williams' 140 RYs (7.8 ypr) were the difference. Culpepper apparently
isn't the answer at Detroit, but Stanton may be. Lions allowing 33 ppg last 15
outings, but are 33-18 ATS off a loss of 15+ pts, & visitor is 6-0 ATS in Lion tilts.
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 22 - (1:00) -- Bucs rested off 3 consecutive spread
setbacks, the first 2 by ½ pt each, with the 3rd overcoming a 21-pt deficit at
KansasCity. Note just 76 RYpg in those 3, with Garcia only 5/3. Minny beat
GreenBay on a 29-yd Peterson run in the final 2:22 (192 RYs for Adrian in that
one). And check Frerotte with 5 TD passes last 2 wks. Minny has allowed 32
ppg on the road this season, so a definite shot with the Bucs, who are 33-18
ATS as non-division hosts, & who are also 5-0 ATS when hosting the Vikings.
SAN FRANCISCO 31 - St Louis 17 - (4:05) -- Well, the Rams' success dabbling
was short-lived, to be sure. Three consecutive covers, including outright wins
over both Washington & Dallas, had the faithful a bit giddy, but check 34-13 &
47-3 setbacks since (18 & 35 pt ATS losses). So a quick bounceback would
help matters, but note they've lost their last 2 division RGs by 48-19 & 37-13
counts. Niners in off Monday Nighter vs Cards, & allowing 33 last 5 outings,
but SanFran has covered 6 of its last 7 games with the Rams. We call it again.
Arizona 27 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Three covers for the Seahawks, in their last
4 games. Seems impossible, with no Hasselbeck, while ranking 25th in both
scoring "O" & "D", 31st in total "O", 32nd in passing "O", & 27th in total "D".
Came from 10 FDs, while hosting the Eagles, to 21 at smoking Miami. But
through it all, just 2 wins for the season, with the Redskins, Cowboys, & Pats
on deck. Bleak, indeed. Catching the Cards off Monday is nice, but note that
Arizona is on a 21-10 ATS run, while averaging 31 ppg in its last 16 contests.
PITTSBURGH 20 - San Diego 19 - (4:15) -- What has happened to that normally
potent Steeler overland game? Check 95, 65, & 55 RYs in their last 3 games.
Ben is back (shoulder) but 0/2 in Pitt's loss to the Colts, & just 10/10 for the
season. The Chargers haven't covered since Columbus Day, barely escaping
1-8 KC, by stopping Chiefs' 2-pt try. And their passing "D" is horrible (6 TDs
allowed last 2 gms). But catching Pitt off Giants, 'Skins, & Colts is helpful, as
is the fact that the Steelers are just 4-15 ATS as HFs of <4 pts. Mild dog call.
Dallas 26 - WASHINGTON 23 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Romo is expected back for this
biggie, & there couldn't be more welcome news for the Cowboy faithful, as
Dallas has certainly floundered in his absence. It has permeated the entire
squad. Note allowing 30, 34, & 35 pts in 'Boys' last 3 RGs, while managing
only 70 & 81 RYs in their last 2 games. The 'Skins managed just 2 FGs in their
last game, but check a 1,218-573 RY edge for the year. However, Wash is a
10-20 ATS division HF, & Dallas is 6-0 ATS away with revenge vs foe off a loss.
BUFFALO 20 - Cleveland 17 - (8:35) -- These 2 aren't exactly perking, with the
Browns on a 2-game slide (35.5 ppg "D"), while the Bills have dropped 3 straight
(14 ppg "O"). Quinn's debut was a success for Cleveland, as he was 23-of-35 for
239 yds & 2 TDs (no picks), altho the Brownies went down late to Denver. Buffalo
has managed just 45 RYpg the past 2 wks, with Edwards ranked just 22nd in the
NFL, with a 7/7 TD/INT ratio. Buffalo is 14-2 ATS off the Pats, & 11-1 ATS as a
non-division HF, but Cleveland is 17-3 ATS off allowing >26 pts. Call this one tite.
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
RATING 5 TEXAS (-13½) over Kansas
RATING 4 COLORADO STATE (PK) over New Mexico
RATING 3 KANSAS STATE (+6½) over Nebraska
RATING 2 EAST CAROLINA (+2½) over Southern Miss
RATING 2 OREGON STATE (-3) over California
RATING 1 VANDERBILT (+4) over Kentucky
RATING 1 NEW MEXICO STATE (+15) over Fresno State
WEDENESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2008
Temple (-2½) KENT STATE 7:00 PM
The Flashes have one of the top rushing offenses in the nation but it
has not translated into wins. Kent has played a weak schedule but
the defense is allowing over 400 yards per game. Kent owns just
one ATS win all season long, whereas a veteran Temple squad is 6-
2 ATS. Temple does not post great offensive numbers but solid
defense and strong special teams play has kept the Owls very
competitive. Temple is 3-6 but two losses came in OT and the Owls
are allowing less than 20 points per game. Kent has just three
covers in the last 15 lined home games. TEMPLE BY 6
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) Central Michigan 7:00PM
Northern Illinois is an improved team this season but none of the five
wins came against quality teams. Central Michigan has owned MAC
games in recent years and coming off a bye week the Chippewas
will be ready to deliver. Given NIU’s success in this series there will
be no overlooking this game for next week’s big game against Ball
State. Northern Illinois has had success as a home underdog but
Central Michigan has taken care of business in conference play for
the most part though there have been some close calls. Northern
Illinois has taken a step forwards but not enough. CM BY 7
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2008
AKRON (-2½) Buffalo 6:00 PM
Both teams won big in early week games last week and with five
wins each, this could be a potential bowl bid elimination game for
two fringe postseason candidates. Through fairly similar schedules
Buffalo has a slight edge on defense while Akron has been a bit
more productive offensively. This is the final game for the Rubber
Bowl stadium in Akron but Buffalo has the more impressive resume
this season. The Bulls are also 14-5 ATS on the road the last three
years including 4-0 this year. BUFFALO BY 6
MIAMI, FL (-4) Virginia Tech 6:45 PM
The Hokies had a huge day on the ground last week but this could
be a tough situation facing a second straight Thursday game against
a rested Hurricanes squad. Miami has won four straight games and
the defensive numbers are among the best in the ACC, allowing just
286 yards per game. Virginia Tech crushed Miami last season 44-14
but the Hokies have not had great success on the road this season.
Look for Miami to force Virginia Tech to throw the ball and the
passing game results have not been positive for the Hokies this
season. Virginia Tech has been a strong home team but the value is
with Miami particularly after a bye week while Virginia Tech is
coming off a dominant national TV win. MIAMI BY 10
UNLV (-8½) Wyoming 8:00 PM
Both teams are coming off big wins last week but the magnitude of
Wyoming’s upset at Tennessee last week should make this a tough
follow-up game on a short week. This will be the second straight
road game for the Cowboys and Wyoming is averaging fewer than
twelve points scored per game this year. The UNLV offense has
been productive and despite just three S/U wins on the year the
Runnin’ Rebels have six ATS wins. Wyoming beat UNLV narrowly
last season but the Cowboys are just 2-11 ATS the last 13 road
games. UNLV has not had much success in the favorite role but a
letdown is in order after a huge win for Wyoming. UNLV BY 14
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2008
Cincinnati (-3) LOUISVILLE 7:00 PM
With the big win last week Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat in the Big
East with the showdown with Pittsburgh slated for next week.
Louisville could play spoiler as the Cardinals have beat Cincinnati
five consecutive seasons. After back-to-back ugly road losses
Louisville sits at 5-4 and after hitting rock-bottom last week with five
turnovers, the Cardinals are in need of a big game. Cincinnati was
badly out-gained last week but still managed to win in OT. Louisville
has a much stronger running game and one of the top rush
defenses in the nation and the Cardinals could surprise against a
good but inconsistent Cincinnati squad. LOUISVILLE BY 4
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2008
PENN STATE (-34) Indiana 11:00 AM
Indiana is 1-7 S/U and ATS the last eight games and there is little
left for the Hoosiers to play for after a poor performance in the final
home game last week. Penn State could be flat after losing its
perfect start to the season but the Lions should have significant
advantages in this match-up to make up for any emotional factors.
Last season Indiana earned a backdoor cover but the Lions have
had great results in this series since joining the Big Ten. Penn
State’s offense struggled last week but look for the offense to pour it
on this week with huge statistical advantages on the season. Penn
State has had great recent results as big favorites. PSU BY 38
IOWA (-15) Purdue 11:00 AM
Last week Iowa gave a big sigh of relief to many fans in Big 12 and
SEC country as the Big Ten was likely knocked out of BCS title
game contention. Iowa is a solid team to take in the underdog role at
home but the Hawkeyes are just 6-12 the last three years as home
favorites. Purdue has played one of the toughest schedules of any
Big Ten team and the despite the disappointing year there have
been some competitive efforts against quality teams. Purdue’s
defense has had respectable numbers for the most part and after
such a huge win last week Iowa will likely be a little flat coming out
the gate this week. Iowa clinched bowl eligibility last week and there
may be many extra distractions this week coming off the upset and
now in the final home game. IOWA BY 10
MICHIGAN (-3) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Northwestern could not hang with Ohio State last season and
although the Wildcats have seven wins, few are impressive.
Michigan has endured a very trying season but there have been two
wins against decent Big Ten teams. Michigan has covered in eight
of the past nine meetings between these teams and Northwestern
has lost outright in 19 of the last 20 trips to Ann Arbor. Despite many
faults Michigan, owns a strong run defense and Northwestern
struggles if made one-dimensional. QB play has been an issue for
Michigan but the edge on the ground should make the difference in
the final home game at the Big House this year. MICHIGAN BY 10
WISCONSIN (-14) Minnesota 2:30 PM
After a brutal start to the Big Ten season Wisconsin is starting to
play better. The Badgers have won two of the last three and
probably should have won two weeks ago against Michigan State.
Wisconsin can still make a bowl game by winning out and Wisconsin
has won S/U in eleven of the last 13 meetings. After starting 7-1
Minnesota has dropped two games in a row and the schedule has to
be questioned for the Gophers. Although Wisconsin’s QB play has
been suspect the running game can carry the way, posting huge
numbers in recent weeks . Turnovers have started to turn the other
way for the Gophers after great fortune early in the year. UW BY 17
Wake Forest (-4) NC STATE 2:30 PM
Despite lousy offensive numbers Wake Forest is 4-2 in ACC play
and currently in first place in the Atlantic division. It has been a
tough year for NC State but the Wolfpack have covered in six of the
last seven games. Turnovers were a big boost for Wake Forest last
week and this has been a very closely contested series in recent
years. The defensive numbers are solid for Wake Forest but the
Deacons have not been a team that pulls away from opponents. NC
State has been a strong late season home underdog and this should
be a close game in the ACC. WAKE FOREST BY 3
CLEMSON (-11½) Duke 11:00 AM
Clemson owns just two wins against FBS teams this season and
only one ATS win all season. After starting 3-1, Duke has dropped
four of the last five des pite several competitive efforts. Duke has not
faced an easy schedule where in contrast Clemson has two FCS
wins padding what would be terrible offensive statistics on the
season. Clemson’s loss last week came in a second straight road
game but the Tigers likely will not find much enthusiasm for this
homecoming game, given how far below expectations the team has
performed. Look for Duke to keep pace. CLEMSON BY 4
North Carolina (-2½) MARYLAND 2:30 PM
Both teams are 3-2 in ACC play and in the thick of the conference
race. Maryland has had a few great games this season but the
Terrapins have not made adjustments well. North Carolina is coming
off a big win over Georgia Tech last week and the Heels continue to
excel despite numerous setbacks with injuries and one of the
toughest schedules in the nation. With RB Scott banged up
Maryland had no answers on the ground last week and although
UNC was severely out-gained on the ground last week the Tar
Heels defense found a way to win. UNC BY 7
Notre Dame (NL) NAVY @Baltimore, MD 11:00 AM
In three OTs Navy snapped a losing streak vs. Notre Dame that had
lasted over four decades. With revenge in mind and coming off a
misleading shutout loss marred by turnovers Notre Dame should be
in a good position this week. Navy has had two weeks to prepare for
this game and Midshipmen should have a dominant edge on the
ground but Notre Dame should have one of its best offensive games
against Navy’s defense which allows over 373 yards per game.
Notre Dame needs one more win to become bowl eligible and the
Irish may actually be undervalued. NOTRE DAME BY 13
Connecticut (-10) SYRACUSE 6:00 PM
The Orange could not hold an early lead last week falling to just 2-7
on the year. The bye week should help Connecticut to heal after
some key injuries in recent weeks but the road team has lost all four
meetings of this series. Statistically the Huskies appear to have
several major advantages in this match-up but Connecticut has
played a much easier schedule and the Huskies have not been the
same team away from home, including owing just one road ATS win
this season. Syracuse has posted several respectable efforts in
recent weeks despite ugly numbers. CONNECTICUT BY 7
ALABAMA (-19½) Mississippi State 11:30 AM
After squeaking out an OT win last week in a highly anticipated
game, Alabama now must face a tricky home game. Alabama has
clinched the West division and looking ahead to the Auburn game or
the SEC championship is a possibility. Mississippi State has had two
weeks to prepare for this game and the Bulldogs have won outright
the last two years in this series. Mississippi State also owns great
defensive numbers and the Tide have to be overvalued with the high
ranking in the polls. Alabama owns horrible recent numbers in the
home favorite role as well. ALABAMA BY 16
KENTUCKY (-4) Vanderbilt 7:00 PM
A familiar season map has played out for Vanderbilt with a hot start
and now four consecutive losses. Kentucky enters this game off a
very tough loss, playing Georgia down to the wire. Vanderbilt is one
game behind Kentucky in overall record but the Commodores have
more SEC wins and a higher strength of schedule ranking.
Vanderbilt has lost outright in four straight games in this series but
the margins have been very close. Both teams have great defensive
numbers but Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in the last eight home games.
Given the close call last week and Vanderbilt’s losing streak there
will be value with the dog in a fairly even match-up. VANDY BY 4
Texas A&M (NL) BAYLOR 3:00 PM
In terms of recent program prestige A&M has a big edge but the
reality is that these teams have very similar resumes on the season
and Baylor actually may have an edge. Baylor’s schedule has been
very difficult and the Bears have held its own with covers in six of
the last eight games despite few S/U wins. The Texas A&M run
defense has been among the worst nationally, allowing 214 yards
per game which should play to the strengths of the Baylor offense.
The Aggies are being out-gained by an average of 96 yards per
game and every win has been very narrow. Look for Baylor to
deliver a convincing win in this match-up. BAYLOR BY 14
New Mexico (PK) COLORADO STATE 1:00 PM
Last week’s loss knocked the Lobos out of bowl contention and this
could be a good situation for Colorado State, even though it has
been a long season. The Rams have a strong history as home
underdogs with a 23-10-1 record in the last 34 attempts and
consider that the last two home games for the CSU have come
against the two of the three elite teams in the conference. Early in
the year the Rams earned home wins and covers over respectable
teams with Houston and UNLV before the schedule toughened. New
Mexico has not won outside the state this season. CSU BY 10
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-15½) Toledo 1:00 PM
Both MAC squads own wins over Big Ten teams this year for an
impressive showing by the conference. After Toledo knocked off
Michigan they were smoked the following week so this could be a
problematic spot for the Broncos coming off the upset over Illinois.
Western Michigan was out-gained last week and the Broncos have
been a terrible ATS team as favorites, going 3-11 in the last 14
instances. Western Michigan has much better overall team statistics
but they have faced a weaker ranked schedule. Toledo has just two
wins but owns solid success in this series. WESTERN BY 11
LOUISIANA TECH (-12½) Utah State 1:30 PM
Sitting at 2-8 Utah State appears like one of the worst teams in the
nation but the schedule has been tough. Utah State was favored just
once all season long yet managed two outright wins and the Aggies
were not typically an easy team to pull away from. Louisiana Tech
gave its bowl hopes new life with back-to-back impressive wins,
shocking San Jose State with a shutout win last week. The formula
has been simple for the Bulldogs, run the ball and stop the run.
Coming off back-to-back big conference wins this could be a
letdown spot as Louisiana Tech will be a solid favorite in this matchup
and Utah State is not as bad as they appear. LA TECH BY 7
SOUTHERN MISS (-2½) East Carolina 2:00 PM
The Pirates are now 6-3 and will be back in the post-season but
there has been considerable drama the past two weeks. Southern
Miss has put together back-to-back wins against two-win teams and
the Eagles have been plus eight in turnovers in those two games.
Statistically East Carolina has dominated the past two weeks
despite needing OT for the victories and the changes to the
offensive game plan appear to be settling in. Southern Miss beat
East Carolina last season but a lot has changed for both programs
and this should actually be a mismatch. EAST CAROLINA BY 14
TULANE (-5) Uab 2:00 PM
After a promising start to the season Tulane has lost five straight
and injuries have decimated the units on both sides of the ball. UAB
owns a surprising win over Marshall this year but the Blazers have
covered in just two games this year. After allowing 70 points in the
last game the bye week may not be able to solve all the problems
for UAB. Tulane has played a tougher schedule and has been much
more competitive aside from a few rough games. UAB is 0-18 S/U
the last three seasons in road games. TULANE BY 13
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
Texas (-13½) KANSAS 11:30 AM
After starting the season 7-0 S/U and ATS the Longhorns have now
dropped three in a row against the number. Kansas has lost outright
in three of the last four games and the two remaining games will be
very tough. Kansas has not defeated Texas in 70 years and through
a tougher schedule the Longhorns have posted huge numbers.
Texas is averaging 44 points per game and the defense has been
tough against the run. Both teams have allowed big numbers in the
air but that is a given considering the powerful passing games in the
Big 12 this year. Look for the KU slide to continue. TEXAS BY 21
Missouri (-26½) IOWA STATE 5:30 PM
With two losses Missouri is not where they hoped at this point in the
year but the opportunity is still there. Missouri can win out and enter
the Big 12 title game with a shot at an automatic BCS slot and this
game can not be taken lightly. Iowa State has lost eight consecutive
games but this has been a problematic series for the Tigers, with
two of the last four going to OT and Missouri losing as double-digit
favorites in the last visit to Ames. Iowa State’s pass defense has
been even worse than Missouri’s maligned unit and the Cyclones do
not have the means to keep up in a shootout. MISSOURI BY 31
OREGON STATE (-3) California 2:30 PM
The Beavers have three tough games remaining but if they win out
they will be Pac-10 champions. California could not move the ball
last week to fall short against USC yet again. Defense has been the
key for Oregon State, allowing just 295 yards per game and this is a
tough spot for the Bears. California certainly will not overlook
Oregon State but this is a tough sandwich spot with rival Stanford up
next and the hyped USC game last week, making this a second
straight road game. Oregon State owns very tough home field
advantage with a 9-3 ATS record in the last twelve. OSU BY 10
OREGON (-3½) Arizona 5:30 PM
The Ducks needed a late score to knock off Stanford last week but
Oregon continues to pile up the wins as one of the elite teams in the
Pac-10. Arizona has taken a big step this year, finally bowl eligible
under Coach Stoops. This is a key revenge game for Oregon as last
season Arizona knocked off what looked like a BCS-bound Ducks
team, injuring Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon in the process.
Arizona may have a slight defensive edge but Oregon’s dominating
running game that produces over 270 yards per game should carry
the victory. This will be the second week in a row in the northwest
for Arizona, always a tough situation. OREGON BY 13
Ucla (-7½) WASHINGTON 9:15 PM
The Huskies are 0-9 with horrendous numbers on the year and the
morale is very low for the team and university. Washington has
played by far the toughest schedule in the nation however so in
reality Washington may not be as bad as it seems. Washington is 1-
8 ATS on the season but at some point the go-against value will
plateau and the next two weeks feature a more level playing field.
This will be Coach Willingham’s final home game and UCLA has
had several dud efforts this season as well. Both defenses are
giving up a ton of points and the Bruins are a tough to trust,
considering UCLA has been favored just once all year. UCLA BY 3
Georgia (-8) AUBURN 2:30 PM
It has been an incredibly disappointing season for Auburn but the
two remaining games present redemptive opportunities. Auburn’s
offense had decent numbers last week but still had three turnovers
despite playing a FCS team. The Auburn defense has not been as
strong as initially expected and Auburn has not covered in any game
since the opening weekend. Georgia is 8-2 but the Bulldogs have
not been at the elite level that many expected. This will incredibly be
a fourth consecutive week playing away from home and the
schedule has caught up to the Bulldogs . GEORGIA BY 7
Byu (-4) AIR FORCE 2:30 PM
The Cougars have failed to cover in six consecutive games and
quietly Air Force is 8-2 on the season, with just one loss in
conference play. BYU has had great success in this series with
convincing wins the past four years and a 15-6 ATS record the last
21 meetings. Air Force should own a solid rushing edge in the game
but this has not been a good match-up for the Falcons. Both teams
have faced very weak schedules but BYU has more potential to post
strong offensive numbers and has the series edge. BYU BY 10
FLORIDA (-21½) South Carolina 2:30 PM
Many consider Florida to be the best team in the country and
through a challenging schedule the Gators have posted great
numbers, with the offense starting to click in recent games. The
South Carolina defense has been extraordinarily tough this season,
particularly against the pass but the Gamcocks have not been able
to knock off any of the elite teams on the schedule despite each loss
coming in a very tight game. Florida has been dominant as a home
favorite and the Gators have won outright in 15 of the last 16
meetings between these teams. FLORIDA BY 24
NEVADA (NL) San Jose State 3:00 PM
San Jose State owns a solid record but the schedule has been weak
and it showed last week with a shutout loss at home. Nevada is
coming off a huge Friday night performance, knocking off Fresno
State with a huge rushing game. Nevada is the nation’s leading
rushing team, averaging 324 yards per game and although the
defense is allowing 32 points per game the Wolfpack have been a
solid performer, now just a win away from bowl eligibility. Nevada
owns dominating spread records at home, including a 14-3 mark in
the last 17 as home favorites. This is also a revenge game for the
Wolfpack after a narrow loss at home last year. NEVADA BY 21
MARSHALL (NL) Central Florida 3:30 PM
An early lead was erased for UCF last week as the offense could not
convert third downs. Marshall played competitively against ECU last
week in an OT loss and the Thundering Herd are a much more
dangerous team than the record indicates. Central Florida has
struggled on offense but the defense is capable of being one of the
top units in the conference with several strong outings this year.
Marshall can be a tough home team and the Herd has much more
scoring potential although coming off a tough loss is a concern for
the team’s emotional state. MARSHALL BY 14
Boise State (NL) IDAHO 4:00 PM
Only three more games separate Boise State from a perfect regular
season but unless Utah stumbles the Broncos likely will not find a
BCS bowl ticket. Both Idaho schools have faced incredibly weak
schedules but despite being a heavy favorite in most games Boise
State has lost ATS just twice this year. Boise State is actually 4-0
S/U and ATS on the road this season and this will not be an
intimidating venue for the Broncos. Idaho is just 2-7 in the last nine
games as home underdogs and although Idaho has had two weeks
to prepare for this game Boise should cruise. BOISE ST BY 45
Tulsa (NL) HOUSTON 7:00 PM
Tulsa beat Houston 56-7 last season and although the Cougars
have a new coaching staff the game will still be in the memory.
Tulsa has had a bye week to recover from its first loss of the season
which can be a problematic situation as teams lack the same focus
after a major season goal has been defeated. Houston has won four
of the last five games and the offense is capable of keeping pace
with the high-powered Tulsa squad. Neither team has played a
tough schedule but there are FCS teams that have played tougher
ranked schedules than Tulsa has faced. HOUSTON BY 7
FRESNO STATE (-15) New Mexico State 4:00 PM
After opening the season with great promise, Fresno State has
proceeded to go 0-8 ATS in the last eight games and the Bulldogs
were outright losers the past two weeks. Bowl eligibility is a question
right now for a Fresno squad that was considered a BCS bowl
contender. New Mexico State has failed S/U and ATS each of the
last four weeks. Fresno State is 3-13 ATS the last 16 home games
and the horrible defensive numbers will continue to haunt Fresno
State in what could be another underachieving loss. New Mexico
State lacks a quality running game but can score. FRESNO BY 6
Usc (-22) STANFORD 6:00 PM
The Trojans delivered last week in a big game and this could be
another tough spot against Stanford after shockingly losing to the
Cardinal last season as huge favorites. Stanford has five wins but
must pull a major upset in the next two weeks to gain bowl
consideration. USC has a bye week next week so there will be no
loss of focus looking ahead to the Notre Dame game. The USC
defense has been incredibly dominant allowing just over 200 yards
per game and an absurd average of 6.67 points per game. Stanford
can run the ball well but it will be tough to score. USC BY 28
Nebraska (-6½) KANSAS STATE 2:30 PM
Through a brutal schedule Nebraska has had mixed results this
season but last week the Huskers delivered a nice victory. Kansas
State has announced that a coaching change will be made as the
Wildcats have struggled to keep pace against the Big 12 this season
with just one conference win. Last season Nebraska hung 73 points
on the Wildcats so much like last week’s game had importance for
Nebraska, this will be a revenge spot for K-State. Nebraska is just 2-
6 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series and the turnover prone
Huskers could be in for a tough follow-up game. K-STATE BY 6
Oklahoma State (-17½) COLORADO 7:00 PM
The Cowboys were a trendy pick last week catching Texas Tech in a
possible letdown spot but it was not to be as OSU could not keep
up. Colorado held on for a narrow win last week but the Buffaloes
have failed ATS in seven consecutive games. Oklahoma State has
an explosive offense but this is a very tough schedule spot facing
the third road game in four weeks and the second straight game
away from home. Oklahoma State has an incredible ATS record this
season but the value is gone and the bounce back win will not come
as easy as many will expect. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 10
SOUTH FLORIDA (-7½) Rutgers 11:00 AM
Both teams were considered Big East contenders but it has been a
disappointing season for both sides. Rutgers started the season 1-5
but has rebounded with wins in the last three games. South Florida
has had the reverse occur with a 5-0 start and losses in three of the
last four. South Florida owns incredible defensive numbers, allowing
just over 280 yards per game and the offense has been productive
with average of418 yards per game and over 30 points per game.
Rutgers has one of the worst running games in the nation despite
being a great rushing team in recent years. Turnovers have been
problematic for both teams and value may be back on a USF squad
that was projected to be the best team in the Big East. USF BY 14
FLORIDA STATE (-7) Boston College 7:00 PM
The Seminoles have not been given national power status in several
years but quietly FSU is 7-2 and tied for first in the competitive ACC
Atlantic. FSU is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 as home favorites. In a
horrible weather game then #2 BC lost to Florida State last season
so this may be a revenge spot for the Eagles despite coming off a
big win last week against Notre Dame. Florida State’s defense has
produced great numbers this season but Boston College has not
been far behind. The key in this game may be Florida State’s
running game. FSU averages 205 yards per game, an inflated
number from two FCS wins, but still a much more potent attack than
BC offers on the ground. FLORIDA STATE BY 10
Ohio State (-9) ILLINOIS 11:00 AM
After a Rose Bowl season last year Illinois has taken a step back
this year, still battling for bowl eligibility. The Illini have potential but
consistency and turnovers have been problems. Last season Illinois
won in Columbus to end the Buckeyes undefeated season hopes so
this will be a big game for both teams. Ohio State is 13-2 the last 15
games as road favorites and Illinois can be tough to trust, although
the Illini have not lost consecutive games all season. Illinois can still
post solid production but turnovers have been a problem. Though
Ohio State won by a solid margin last week the game was close
early and the Buckeyes have had trouble with athletic speed
oriented offenses in recent seasons. OHIO STATE BY 7
Utah (NL) SAN DIEGO STATE 7:00 PM
A miraculous win last week keeps the perfect season alive and Utah
is on track for a BCS bowl bid. The Utes would not be blamed for
overlooking this game ahead to next week’s critical game against
BYU. San Diego State could make a strong argument for being the
worst team in the nation. At 1-9 the Aztecs average 17 points per
game while allowing 36 points per game while being out-gained by
an average of 170 yards per game. Utah has solid numbers as a
road favorite but the line should be out of control considering what is
at stake and how easily San Diego State has been scored on. Look
for a Utah win but this is not a favorable spot. UTAH BY 28
UTEP (-9) Smu 8:00 PM
The Miners are 1-9 in the last ten chances as home favorites but
UTEP was a convincing winner last week as a solid underdog.
Turnovers were key for UTEP as the defense still allowed close to
400 yards and on the season the Miners are among the worst
nationally on the defensive side, averaging 473 yards per game
allowed. Both of these teams feature productive passing games but
SMU’s offense is allowing 485 yards per game. SMU has played the
more challenging schedule and despite a 1-9 S/U record the
Mustangs have been fairly competitive in most games as four of the
last six losses came by single-digits. UTEP BY 7
ARIZONA STATE (NL) Washington State 4:30 PM
Despite another lopsided loss Washington State did at least find the
end zone a few times last week. The Cougars only had 208 yards of
offense so the 28-point effort was a bit misleading. Arizona State
snapped an ugly six-game losing streak last week and this should
be a great opportunity for another win. Arizona State is actually 8-2
ATS in the last ten instances as double-digit favorites and although
the overall numbers are not good on offense ASU should deliver a
solid outing this week. Washington State is allowing over 50 points
per game and the Cougars also have the worst turnover margin in
the nation, so little is going right. ARIZONA STATE BY 35
Middle Tennessee St (-3) W. KENTUCKY 12:00 PM
Last week’s win was a big one for Middle Tennessee State as the
Raiders have had a very tight recent series with UL-Monroe.
Western Kentucky has not been terribly competitive in this
transitional year and they have failed to cover in all three lined home
games this season. Western Kentucky had just 216 yards of offense
last week and the Blue Raider defense has been solid this year,
particularly against the passing game. Last season Western
Kentucky beat MTSU so revenge is in order. MTSU BY 13
UL-Lafayette (-2) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3:00 PM
UL-Lafayette fell to 0-4 in non-conference games this season but the
Ragin’ Cajuns are still undefeated in Sun Belt play. Last year’s
conference champion Florida Atlantic is in need of a big win this
week as conference play started out poorly. Last season Lafayette
took FAU to OT but came up just short. Florida Atlantic played a
brutal early season schedule and should not be counted out of the
conference race yet. ULL has great rushing numbers but the
conference schedule has been favorable so far. FAU BY 10
MISSISSIPPI (-21) UL-Monroe 5:00 PM
Ole Miss has had two weeks to ready for this game and the Rebels
are coming off back-to-back SEC wins. At 5-4 it has been a solid
first year for Coach Nutt and a strong finish and a bowl bid is still
very possible. A big game at LSU is on deck but UL-Monroe will not
get overlooked after the Warhawks knocked off Alabama last
season. UL-M suffered a tough loss last week in a close game and it
is hard to see this game staying close for long. The statistics do not
look that appealing but Ole Miss has gone through the toughest part
of the schedule already. OLE MISS BY 21
LSU (-19) Troy 7:00 PM
This make-up game provides some intrigue as Troy has been
among the top Sun Belt teams in recent years. LSU enters this
game off a very disappointing loss in last week’s big game. Troy is
less threatening with the injuries suffered but this could be a closer
game than expected and Troy has delivered a few major upsets in
recent seasons. LSU BY 14
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
RATING 5 ATLANTA (-5½) over Denver
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 PHILADELPHIA (-9½) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-3½) over San Diego
RATING 1 TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2008
NEW ENGLAND (-3½) NY Jets (40) 7:15 PM
The Patriots beat the Jets 19-10 in week two in New York but the Jets have a
bit of momentum, having won five of the past six games and posting 47
points. This is a critical division game as both teams are currently 6-3. The
first meeting was a statistical deadlock in QB Cassel’s first career start. The
Patriots have found some offensive rhythm in recent weeks but defense has
been the key, allowing less than 13 points per game in the last four weeks.
The Jets have been extremely fortunate the last two weeks . PATS BY 13
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2008
ATLANTA (-5½) Denver (51) 12:00 PM
The Falcons moved to 6-3 and a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS on the season with
a big division win last week. Denver’s defense is allowing huge numbers and
although Atlanta’s defense has been vulnerable to the pass Denver’s RB
options are limited with a rash of injuries. Denver is just 2-7 ATS this season
and this will be the second week on the road for the Broncos. Atlanta’s
running game has been among the best in the league and the Falcons
should have no problems producing yardage this week. Atlanta is for real,
take advantage while the value is still there. FALCONS BY 14
MIAMI (-11) Oakland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Dolphins have terrible numbers in recent years as home favorites and
this could be another narrow home win. Oakland severely out-gained
Carolina last week in a sloppy game filled with turnovers but the Raiders
managed just six points. At 5-4 Miami needs to be considered a serious
playoff threat looking at the schedule ahead but the Dolphins have very few
double-digit wins in recent years. Oakland is a tough team to back but Miami
is not yet ready to lay this high of a number. DOLPHINS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-6½) Baltimore (42) 12:00 PM
The Giants have impressed, moving to 8-1 and New York has to be
considered a Super Bowl favorite. This could be a flat spot for New York after
back-to-back division wins. Baltimore’s defense is as good as any that the
team has faced this season and Pittsburgh proved earlier this year that the
Giants offense can be contained. New York has struggled in all three games
against AFC teams and Baltimore may catch some value against New York
coming off the Giants Sunday night national TV win. GIANTS BY 3
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) Houston (49) 12:00 PM
The Colts are back in the picture with back-to-back wins over quality teams.
Four of five wins for Indianapolis came against winning teams and the
schedule is about to get much more favorable for Indianapolis to make a
charge to wild card position. Houston is 0-4 S/U on the road this season and
last week’s home loss was particularly discouraging. The Texans can post
big numbers with Rosenfels at QB but turnovers continue to be a big
problem. The Colts are still vulnerable against the run and Houston is a bit
underrated based on tough early scheduling. COLTS BY 4
Tennessee (-3) JACKSONVILLE (40) 3:15 PM
The Titans continue to deliver big wins but this will be a tricky spot, facing a
second straight road game. The Jaguars lost the opening week in a 17-10
game at Tennessee but the Titans used QB Young for most of that game.
Coming off back-to-back losses Jacksonville came up with a strong
performance last week but Jacksonville has few impressive wins on the year.
Last week the Titans proved they could win without a running game and the
run defense for Jacksonville is not a particularly strong defensive team
against the run. Tennessee should be played on until they show more
vulnerability as they are still not valued like a 9-0 team. TITANS BY 10
GREEN BAY (NL) Chicago 12:00 PM
This is a critical game for the Packers, having lost back-to-back games and a
loss would mean falling two games behind the Bears in the division
standings. Chicago will be on the road for each of the next three weeks
making this also a critical game, especially with Minnesota matching their
record last week. The Bears won both games against the Packers last
season and Chicago has had solid recent success at Lambeau Field. Green
Bay has been horrible at stopping the run this season and with Grossman at
QB, the Bears will focus on running the ball. Green Bay needs this win but
Chicago has been the better team. PACKERS BY 2
Philadelphia (-9½) CINCINNATI 12:00 PM
The Eagles have a lot of vulnerable areas but they seem to catch a lot of
breaks. Losing last Sunday night was a critical blow in the standings but
Philadelphia had won three in row prior to that loss. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS
in the last 15 road games and Philadelphia has only lost to quality teams this
season, generally taking care of business against teams they should beat.
Cincinnati enters this game off the first win of the year and a bye week but
the Bengals are not likely to carry momentum into this game. Look for the
Eagles to bounce back with a complete performance. EAGLES BY 17
New Orleans (-4½) KANSAS CITY (47½) 12:00 PM
The Chiefs put together a great effort last week in a divisional game but the
end result was still a loss. QB Thigpen has made a lot of progress in recent
weeks and the Kansas City offense has scored 70 points over the past three
games, all against quality opponents. The Saints surrender big numbers but
few teams can keep pace with the passing production posted by New
Orleans. The Saints should finally have the full offensive arsenal in effect this
week and given the strength of the records of the rest of the NFC South this
is a must-win game for New Orleans but it won’t be easy. SAINTS BY 3
CAROLINA (-14) Detroit (39) 12:00 PM
QB Delhomme had four interceptions and the offense had pathetic numbers
last week but the Panthers were able to get away with it for another win.
Carolina is 7-2 on the season and the Lions are in bad shape with the QB
situation as 3rd stringer Stanton was forced into action this week. The Lions
are still winless and counting on Detroit for a solid effort is very risky. Doubledigit
favorites have been bankroll busters this season with a 3-14 ATS record
on the year so the Lions may find a way to stay close. PANTHERS BY 7
TAMPA BAY (-4) Minnesota (39½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week the Bucs should be ready to face off with a former
division rival. Special teams and turnovers continue to be huge problems for
Minnesota and the Vikings will not be able to rush as successfully against a
solid Tampa defense. Minnesota has not been a strong road performer and
the Vikings are just 3-6 ATS on the year. BUCS BY 6
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:05 PM
The 49ers face a short week coming off a Monday night game and it will be
interesting to see how the 49ers look with QB Hill on offense. There has to
be some resentment with OC Martz not being named the interim head coach
despite his much more impressive head coaching experience and Coach
Singletary has raised some alarms. St. Louis was whipped last week and
without a solid running game the Rams have little chance to win. This is the
second straight road game for St. Louis, hitting both coasts. 49ERS BY 7
Arizona (NL) SEATTLE 3:05 PM
Arizona faces a short week before heading to the northwest for the first
meeting with the Seahawks this season. Even though Seattle has a solid
history at home, particularly in this series it is hard to envision the sluggish
Seahawk offense keeping pace with the Cardinals. Arizona has proven
capable against quality teams and games like this will prove whether the
Cardinals can be taken seriously. CARDINALS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-3½) San Diego (43) 3:15 PM
The Chargers held on for a narrow win against Kansas City last week but
San Diego has not solved the defensive problems that have led to a very
mediocre start to the season. The Steelers are facing a brutal scheduling
stretch but Pittsburgh remains the most effective defensive team in the
league. Pittsburgh’s losses have all come against high quality opponents and
this is long travel for the Chargers. The Steelers have not lost consecutive
games this season and San Diego is still valued like an elite team despite
very poor results this season. STEELERS BY 10
WASHINGTON (NL) Dallas 7:15 PM
No early word whether QB Romo might be back in action this soon and if he
plays he likely would not be at full strength. Both teams have had bye weeks
and this is a critical game in the East standings as New York is close to really
pulling away. Washington’s defense is among the best in the league but
Dallas has more on the line in this match-up. The Cowboys have not had
recent success in this series but after losing the first meeting with
Washington the Cowboys need to make it happen. The Redskins have not
won by big margins this season s o this should be a close game with an edge
to the underdog Cowboys. COWBOYS BY 3
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2008
BUFFALO (-4½) Cleveland (42) 7:35 PM
The Bills have dropped three in a row and are in serious danger of falling out
of contention. Fortunately three losing teams are up next on the schedule.
QB Edwards has had two poor games in a row but the running game might
get going again versus a suspect Cleveland defense. Cleveland QB Quinn
played fairly well in his debut but for the second straight week the Browns
blew a sizable late-game lead. The Bills have won three of four games at
home this season and the one loss featured some bizarre plays in a game
they dominated early. Look for the Bills to bounce back as the adjusted
Browns offense might struggle away from home for the first time. It is do or
die time for the Bills as there is no margin for error. BILLS BY 10
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
11* LOUISIANA TECH over Utah State
Late Score Forecast: *LOUISIANA TECH 35 - Utah State 9
WAC sources report the hourglass is about to run dry on the regime of Utah State HC Brent Guy, whose mark since taking over at Logan in ‘05 now stands at a poor 8-36. That’s not even been enough to earn the dreaded “vote of confidence” from new Utag AD Scott Barnes, as most regional observers believe Guy’s fate is sealed. Fundamentals certainly don’t stack up well for USU vs. surging La Tech, undefeated SU (4-0) and vs. line (3-0) at home and whose potent 1-2 RB punch of P. Jackson & Porter can bludgeon a soft Utag rush “D” allowing a hefty 5.1 ypc. Meanwhile, new Bulldog QB Jenkins has been near mistake-free since assuming starting role last month. Another win also gets La Tech bowl-eligible, and Bulldogs know a WAC postseason slot will likely be available if Boise State nets a BCS at-large berth.
10* MICHIGAN over Northwestern
Late Score Forecast: *MICHIGAN 27 - Northwestern 14
Michigan reached back for its best performance of the season in garnering a win at Minnesota last week. Must
believe HC Rich Rodriguez will call on the Wolverines to show some additional pride and build on that effort this week against a Northwestern squad not at full strength. Michigan has won five straight against the Wildcats, all by doubledigit margins. Although Northwestern QB C.J. Bacher is expected to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out the last two games, he won’t be in full form. The Wildcats 5-0 start has faded to 2-3 the last 5 games, as injures have forced them to play without leading rusher Tyrell Sutton, his backup Omar Conteh, top defender LB Malcolm Arrington, and key backup DE Vince Browne (4 sacks), who all suffered season-ending injuries. Due to injuries and graduation, NW’s offensive line now consists of five first-year starters. The Wolverines are playing their last home game, and Michigan has 15 srs. & RS jrs. in the two-deep, most of whom will be playing at “The Big House” for the last time.
10* CONNECTICUT over *Syracuse
Late Score Forecast: CONNECTICUT 31- *Syracuse 10
Big East scouts tell us Syracuse’s beleaguered HC Robinson should get the pink slip any day, with Orange scratched from bowl contention for 4th straight year following ugly 35-14 loss at Rutgers. Those sources report both ‘Cuse QBs Dantley & Robinson (combined 5 of 19 for 35 yds.!) displayed terrible mechanics vs. Knights, while the clueless defense (35 ppg) made poor adjustments following halftime. What else is new? Huskies hard-driving HC Edsall (played/coached at Syracuse from ‘76-90), who has been mentioned as a possible Robinson successor, has reportedly taken full advantage of bye week in aftermath of sloppy (5 TOs) 35-13 loss vs. WV. UConn’s previouslyinjured vet QB Lorenzen could return here. But with Huskies scintillating RB D. Brown (1406 YR, 15 TDs, 5.5 ypc) running wild, believe strong-armed, 6-4 RS frosh Endres fully capable of hitting play-action passes vs. vulnerable Orange 2ndary (65%, 23 TDs, just 7 ints.). Resilient Huskies 9-3 vs. spread last 12 following reg.-season loss.
10* ILLINOIS over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast: *ILLINOIS 24 - Ohio State 23
Ohio State out for revenge after Illinois’ upset LY in Columbia. But it’s not as simple as that for the Buckeyes. Illinois repeatedly has gotten sky-high for OSU, covering six of the last seven meetings, three straight in Champaign-Urbana, winning three of the last seven straight up overall, and losing only one of the last seven meetings by more than seven points. Illini QB Juice Williams was the key in LY’s 28-21 victory in Columbia, tossing four TDP and then putting the game away with clutch spread-option runs late in the fourth quarter. The presence of a healthy Beanie Wells is intimidating for OSU, and QB Terrelle Pryor has great natural talent. But the latter is still a true freshman making only his fourth road start. Experience edge at QB makes DD spread very inviting.
TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Oakland-Miami Game—Raiders very limited on offense; Dolphins very stable on defense...OVER (43) in the San Diego- Pittsburgh Game—S.D. defense way down from LY; Steelers 44-15-1 “over” at Heinz.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): VIRGINIA TECH (+4) at Miami-Florida (Thur., Nov. 13)—Hokies now stable at QB; might have found a “franchise” RB in RS frosh Darren Evans (253 YR vs. Md.)...OREGON STATE (-3) vs. California—Beavers focused on Rose Bowl and undefeated at home TY; 5-7 true frosh RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1089 YR) surprising defenses every week...BOISE STATE (-34) at Idaho—Spread is large, but defensive difference is huge...RUTGERS (+7) at South Florida—Greg Schiano has Rutgers back on track (5 straight covers), with QB Mike Teel (9 TDP last 2 games) playing assertively as a senior...DALLAS (+5) at Washington (Sun., Nov. 16)—Cowboys expected to be much healthier and facing potential do-or-die game for their playoff prospects.
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
NORTHCOAST SPORTS POWER SWEEP
The Computer Corner will feature the top plays from our Computer Power Ratings. These plays are based solely on the teams' Power Ratings vs the Vegas Line & do not take into account matchups, injuries, etc. The team that is listed in bold is the computer's selection. 4-1 LW!
Computer Forecast Diff/Vegas
PENN ST by 39.1 Indiana 5.1
Connecticut by 4.9 SYRACUSE 5.6
Usc by 27.4 STANFORD 5.4
Ohio St by 15.3 over ILLINOIS 7.3
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Mississippi St (+20) over ALABAMA
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 182-128. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 30 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS INCLUDING TEXAS TECH 3 weeks ago AND LW with Michigan over Minnesota to this incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
The visitor is 10-5 ATS in the series and Miss St is 13-4 ATS. In 1992 we used Miss St at home as our College GOY and they covered (21-30, +10’) and we’ll call for that score again. MSU HC Croom played for Bear Bryant at Bama and lost out to Mike Shula for the HC job in ‘03. The last time these 2 met in Tuscaloosa, MSU ended a 23 gm SEC road losing streak with a 24-16 win (+14). LY Croom won SU again this time at home 17-12 (+4’). That was a tough loss for the Tide as they led 9-3 and were at the MSU2 about to go up 16-3 when a 100 yd IR TD turned the gm around. The Tide has had a 40-27 FD edge in the 2 losses but has not scored an offensive TD in the L/3 meetings. Miss St is fresh off a bye while Bama plays a 5th str wk and is off an OT win over LSU which clinched UA’s first trip to the SEC Champ gm S/‘99. Bama QB Wilson is avg 163 ypg (59%) with an 8-5 ratio & RB Coffee has 1,020 yds (6.3). MSU QB Lee (PS#31JC) is avg 140 ypg (62%) with a 4-4 ratio & RB Dixon has 647 (4.2). After their 2 marquee wins TY (#9 Clemson, #3 GA), Bama didn’t cover, and this is certainly a letdown spot with a bye on deck. Though UA has a large edge on both lines (off #27-105, def #6-51), UA is 1-7 as a DD SEC HF and they will get the Bulldogs best shot as MSU needs to win out to go to a bowl. FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Mississippi St 21
4* FLORIDA ST over Boston College - LY FSU upset #2 BC 27-17 with 50 mph winds & the remnants of Hurricane Noel. The visitor is 3-0 SU/ATS in their ACC meetings. LW FSU snapped a 3 gm series losing streak and gave Bowden his 380th win (#2 all-time) on his 79th B-day defeating Clemson 41-27 in the 1st non-Bowden Bowl in 10 yrs, delivering as a 4H LPS. LW true Fr RB Thomas (PS#81), who saw extensive playing time w/starter Smith nursing inj’s, rushed for 94 yds and on the season has 437 (8.4!). QB Ponder is avg 190 ttl ypg and WR Carr has 24 rec (15.8). FSU has a solid edge on offense (#22-69) but the teams matchup pretty evenly on D (BC #30-32). BC shutout ND LW (17-0, 6th straight win vs ND), which was their 3rd shutout TY, snapping a 2 gm losing streak & becoming bowl elig for a 10th straight ssn. QB Crane is avg 167 ypg (55%) with a 9-12 ratio. RB Harris has 531 rush yds (5.5) and WR B Robinson has 29 rec (16.2). FSU extended the country’s longest active bowl streak to 27 yrs & with some help, could still find their way into the ACC Title game, possibly sending out Bowden as the winningest coach with 13 titles. However, there is great line value here as BC was outgained by ND yet won while FSU’s win could have been even more impressive. FSU gets the style points TW. FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 34 Boston College 13
3H WISCONSIN over Minnesota - UW is 11-2 SU in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. UW has won the L/6 HG’s by an avg of 41-19 (5-1 ATS) with no win by fewer than 17. This is the 1st time UM has played a power run gm all yr and after not having a 100 yd rusher in their 1st five B10 games, UW has had both Hill (845, 4.9) and Clay (703, 5.7) rush for 100 yds the L2W. Since OL Carimi and Urbik returned the Badgers have outrushed MSU & Indy 722-158. We won a 4H LPS (almost 5H) on UW as they destroyed a depleted IU squad 55-20 with 31-14 FD and 601-274 yd edges despite three 1H TO’s which allowed IU to start 3 drives at the UW 16, 39 & 15 yd lines. We won going against UM as we used Michigan as our Underdog POW and the Wolves rolled 29-6 with 20-8 FD and 435-188 yd edges. Minny had just 1 FD and 46 yds in the 1H as WR Decker (#1 B10 74 rec, 12.1) was forced to leave with an ankle inj (CS). The OL is struggling as UM is avg 86 rush ypg (2.7) with 18 sks allowed in conf play. UW has played a much tougher sked (#15-72) and has huge edges on both sides of the ball (#16-85 off & #21-59 D) and they still need one more win for bowl eligibility and are looking up at the Gophers in the standings. FORECAST: WISCONSIN 44 Minnesota 17
3* Texas over KANSAS - Last meeting (‘05) UT had a 52-0 HT led (tied school rec) holding KU to just 13 yds & 1 FD. Horns are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in B12 action outgaining the Jayhawks on avg by 313 ypg (last time KU beat UT was in 1938!). UT is 7-3 SU recently on the B12 road but just 2-7-1 ATS. KU has covered 6 of 7 home finales. Texas (9-1) showed no letdown LW taking care of BU, but have not covered for 3 straight wks. QB McCoy is avg 288 ypg (78%) with a 28-7 ratio. KU dropped its 89th gm to NU (NCAA rec) LW. QB Reesing (KU’s all-time passing leader) is avg 294 ypg (67%) with a 23-10 ratio. UT is ranked #23 in our pass eff def allowing 267 ypg (58%) with a 16-6 ratio while KU comes in at #43 (276 ypg, 61%, 20-13). Both offenses are potent (UT#5, KU#20) but Longhorns have big def (#8-62) & ST (#12-91) edges while playing a far tougher sked (#3-33). Texas still has a shot at a BCS bowl while KU is showing why ‘07’s schedule was the reason for their success as they are 0-2 SU & ATS vs OU & TT this yr being outscored by 28 ppg & outgained by 212 ypg. FORECAST: Texas 47 KANSAS 21
2* Notre Dame over Navy - Baltimore. It took 44 yrs & 3 OT’s for Navy to finally beat ND LY 46-44 (prior win by the Mids was in ‘63 which was the nation’s longest series losing streak). Navy is 13-5 ATS in the series but ND has not punted in the L3Y in this game. ND is 4-1 ATS the L/5 facing Navy at a neutral site. ND is off their 6th straight loss to Catholic rival BC, a gm in which they outgained BC 292-246 but suffered a 5-0 TO deficit. Navy is off a bye (23-13 ATS). Navy is 8-3 as a dog away from home (2-2 TY with 2 outright upsets). ND hasn’t faced an option tm yet this year and LY had problems stopping the option because DC Corwin Brown came from the NFL. TY asst HC Tenuta was brought in and they should be much better prepared allowing 132 ypg rush (4.0). Navy’s QB’s have been banged up TY and 3rd str Dobbs has finished the L2 gms with surprising results (2 wins incl 20 pt come-from-behind win in OT vs Temple 2W ago) and he has 271 rush (4.9) with 5 rush TD’s in the L/2. ND QB Clausen is avg 259 ypg (59%) with an 18-13 ratio (4 int LW). ND has a small edge on off (#40-51) and a large edge on def #16-94 (Navy #108 pass D). Despite Navy’s 6-3 record they have only outgained opp’s 375-373 ypg and ND still needs one more win to be bowl elig.
FORECAST: † Notre Dame 38 Navy 17
2* Ohio St over ILLINOIS - Coming into ‘08 Tressel had only lost 11 B10 gms & in the next meeting vs teams that beat him he is 10-1 SU/8-3 ATS. LY UI defeated their first #1 team S/‘56 with a 28-21 win in Columbus. OSU allowed a Tressel-era record 260 rush yds as the Illini held onto the ball for the L/8:09. OSU is 13-3 as an AF (3-0 TY) but 1 loss was a 17-10 SU win (-24) here in ‘06. IL is 9-1 ATS as a conf dog. OSU won our 5H College GOY with their 45-10 rout of NW. QB Pryor had his best gm yet hitting 9-14 for 197 yd & 3 TD including 5 of his 1st six 3D conv’s. RB Wells (814, 5.4) continues to get healthier. OSU is #13 pass eff D allowing 164 ypg (57%) with a 7-13 ratio. We won a 2H on these pages on WM as they upset the Illini 23-17 in front of the smallest crowd the Illini have played in front of S/’45. Illini ground game has idled the L/3 avg 88 ypg (3.0), putting even more pressure on QB Williams who has 7 int’s in that span. He still leads the B10 in ttl offense & pass eff avg 277 ypg (57%) with a 20-14 ratio and 577 rush yds. WR Benn has 60 rec (15.8). Illini D leads the B10 in sks (32) and allow 145 rush ypg (3.6) in conf play. The erratic Illini need one more win just to assure a return trip to Ford Field while OSU needs two wins and a little help to get back into the Rose Bowl hunt and remember we had OSU in the same 2H spot LW. FORECAST: Ohio St 31 ILLINOIS 17
2* SYRACUSE (+) Connecticut - Randy Edsall played & coached at Syracuse from 76-‘90 and LY UC was -19’ at home and led 30-0 in a 30-7 win. Syracuse struggled LW at Rutgers after taking an early 14-0 lead as they gained only 86 yds after an 82 yd 1Q TD run. They have, however, covered their L/2 at home incl upsetting Louisville as they’ve rushed for 167 ypg (5.1) and avg’d 26 FD’s. With a rushing threat QB Dantley has been able to throw deep (15.8 yp/completion) while having a 4-0 ratio. Conn is off a bye but they continue to struggle away from home. They are 1-3 ATS TY scoring 12 or less 3x while posting a 4-11 ATS mark on the conf road. While RB Brown (156 ypg) still leads the nation in rushing the Huskies have avg’d just 3.7 ypc in their L/3 away. The HT is 4-0 both SU/ATS in the series and with this certainly being HC Robinson’s final home game expect a scrappy Orange team to cover their 4th in the L/5. FORECAST: SYRACUSE 20 (+) Connecticut 23
Virginia Tech at MIAMI, FL - VT is 4-1 SU in the series winning their last 2 trips to Miami 16-10 and 17-10. Miami DC Young was the DC at Kansas LY and KU defeated VT in the Orange Bowl. LY VT allowed -2 yds rushing at home in a 44-14 (-16’) rout. VT is 6-1 on the road in televised Thursday games. In ACC games TY, teams that have had the previous week off when their opponents have not are 7-2.
Wyoming at UNLV - These two have avg’d 70 ppg in MWC play. WY is 4-0 SU and winning by a 40-28 avg but UNLV has covered the L/2. Glenn is just 7-25 SU on the road. WY is playing on a short wk and traveling a 2nd str wk making it even shorter but the status of LV QB Clayton remains ?. His bkup Clausen filled in admirably (17-34, 203 yds, 2-0 ratio) LW, guiding the Rebs to a 27-20 win over NM. WY is off a HUGE upset at Tenn, 13-7. The Rebs are just 3-12 SU in Sam Boyd finales and the dog is 9-3 ATS. Which team takes another step closer to the magical 6th win?
Friday, November 14th
Cincinnati at LOUISVILLE - This is the Battle for the Keg of Nails & these schools are only 106 miles apart. UL is 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) and LY we used the Cards as a Big Dog Play of the Week and they upset Cincy (+10) 28-24 on the road. The fav is 8-3 ATS. This is Cincy’s final BE road game as they find themselves tied for the conference lead. Can they pull off B2B road wins after LW’s OT win at WV?
PENN ST 52 Indiana 10 - Penn St is 11-0 SU in the series winning by 17 ppg & the teams have combined for 62 ppg. LY PSU (-7) took advantage of four 2H TO’s and won 36-31 on the road. PSU’s BCS dreams were crushed LW as they blew a 9 pt 4Q lead as Iowa hit a 31 yd FG with :01 left. QB Clark is still #2 in the B10 in pass eff but has hit just 104 ypg (49%) with a 0-1 ratio in the L/2 gms vs OSU & Iowa’s tough D’s. RB Royster has 1,060 yds (6.6). The Lions have a huge D edge (#5-95) led by DE Maybin’s 11 sks. This is only IU’s 3rd AG of the yr (0-2 SU & ATS) and they’ve been outgained 448-303 & outFD’d 25-14. We won a 4H LPS on Wisconsin LW as the inj depleted Hoosiers were outFD’d 31-14 and outgained 601-274. IU ended that game with their 4th string QB, 3rd string C and also lost LB Patterson and 3 more DB’s including FS Polk (ACL). IU has been dominated on the LOS in B10 play all’g 235 rush ypg (4.7). The Lions offense needs a feel good outing and they refocus quickly to make a run for the roses for the 1st time S/’94.
IOWA 27 Purdue 10 - The home team is 9-1-1 SU in this series with the avg win by 15 ppg (L/3 by 24 ppg). LY PU won easily at home 31-6 holding the Hawks without a TD for the 1st time S/’76. Iowa is off their 1st win over a Top 5 team S/’90 as they rallied from a 9 pt 4Q deficit to hit the gm winning 31 yd FG with :01 left. Hawks’ RB Greene (#3 NCAA 1374, 6.1) is the only RB in the country to rush for 100 yds in all 10 gms. Iowa is #15 in pass eff D allowing 192 ypg (54%) with a 6-17 ratio (#3 NCAA int). PU was KO’d from bowl eligibility in a 21-7 loss at MSU. The Boilers had just 2 FD’s in the 1H and finished with a Tiller era low 191 ttl yds yet only trailed 7-0 when QB Siller (making his 1st road start) threw a pick six with :24 left 2Q. The Boilers are #90 in NCAA allowing 173 rush ypg (4.4). Hawks have huge edges all around (#41-64 off, #10-63 D & #28-102 ST) but now must focus on the other B10 team that starts with a P as they are 4-12 ATS off a SU win the L/3Y.
MICHIGAN 26 Northwestern 23 - S/‘60 Michigan is 19-1 SU in Ann Arbor (only loss in ‘95). The Wolves are 10-1 SU prior to OSU. Michigan outscored the Cats 14-0 in the 4Q for a 28-16 win in Evanston LY with NW having a 417-380 yd edge (Fitz 2-0 ATS in series). UM dominated the Gophers winning our Underdog POW LW with 20-8 FD and 435-188 yd edges despite playing without QB Threet who is expected to return here. RB’s Minor (466, 5.2) and McGuffie (486, 4.1) both left LW’s gm due to inj (CS). UM is #62 pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (58%) with a 13-6 ratio. We won our College GOY with a 5H on OSU over these Cats LW as the Bucks rolled 45-10. QB Kafka avg 160 ypg (70%) with a 2-3 ratio and 300 rush yds in his 2 starts and will likely remain the starter as he’s been NU’s only threat on the ground as they’re down to their 3rd string TB. Cats have 27 sks but only 12 in B10 play. Despite their opposite records, NU only has the off edge (#47-62) while UM has the D (#53-75) & ST’s (#11-40) edges as they’ve played the much tougher sked (#18-68). Tough to lay too many points with the Wolves who are 1-5 ATS at home TY while the Cats have 2 outright upsets as a conf AD TY.
NC STATE 21 Wake Forest 17 - LY Skinner hit 20-29 for 208 incl a momentum-shifting 62 yd TD that led WF past NCSt 38-18. Here in ‘06 we used Wake +3’ on these pages as the Underdog POW and they won outright, 25-23. WF has won 5 in a row ATS in the series with 3 upsets. LW WF wore their gold jerseys for the 1st time in 52 yrs & became bowl elig for a 3rd straight year in their win vs UVA, which was their 1st home win vs the Cavs in 25 yrs. RFr RB Pendergrass, who took over the starting job, rushed for a season-high 110 yds & has 344 (3.1). QB Skinner is avg 190 ypg (64%) with a 10-4 ratio. WR Boldin has 55 rec (10.1). NCSt has a slight edge on offense (#71-90) but WF has a solid edge on defense (#20-82). NCSt snapped a 4 game losing streak and got their 1st conf win LW as they defeated Duke 27-17. QB Wilson was solid throwing for 218 yds and on the season is avg 160 ypg (57%) with a 10-1 ratio. RB Brown has 488 rush yds (4.1) and 20 rec (11.7). NCSt has covered 6 of their L/7 but WF has positioned itself to reach the ACC Title game for the 2nd time in 3 years
CLEMSON 27 Duke 21 - Clemson takes care of business at home and the HT is 7-2 ATS with Clemson winning the L4 in Death Valley by a 52-16 avg. Duke has not won in here S/’80. LY on the road Clemson trailed 7-0 but rolled to a 47-10 win (-16) with a 350-198 yd edge. CU is 3-9 as a HF incl 1-3 TY. LW CU lost to FSU 41-27 in the 1st non-Bowden Bowl in 10 yrs as CU’s D, which had not all’d more than 2 TD’s in their L/15 ACC gms, gave up 4. QB Harper is avg 198 ypg (61%) with an 8-12 ratio. RB’s Davis has 526 rush yds (4.9) and Spiller has 435 (6.3). CU does have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #48-76, def #36-74). LW Duke lost their 2nd straight in-state ACC gm 27-17 to NCSt. QB Lewis is avg 208 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio. WR Riley has 53 rec (10.9). Duke needs 2 wins to become bowl elig but now has B2B conf road games and then hosts NC in their season finale. CU, however, needs to win their L/3 gms to become bowl elig because 2 of their 4 wins TY were vs IAA foes.
North Carolina 24 MARYLAND 21 - NC is just 2-5 SU vs Maryland but defeated them LY 16-13 (-2’). The Terps still control their own destiny in the div race as wins in the final 3 contests would send Maryland to the ACC Title game. MD has won 5 straight the L2Y vs ranked foes. LW RB Scott started but was ineffective with a shoulder inj (CS) and on the yr he has rushed for 729 yds (5.2). QB Turner is avg 185 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio. WR Heyward-Bey has 30 rec (16.5) & TE Grankowski has 23 (9.9). NC has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #44-55, def #38-65). Six of NC’s 7 wins have been in come-from-behind games but they never trailed LW as they defeated GT 28-7, ensuring their 1st winning season in 7 years. With 3 gms to play, UNC is tied with VT and Miami at 3-2 in the Coastal Div. NC is #1 in ACC pts off TO’s (83) incl 14 LW vs GT. QB Sexton is avg 177 ypg (58%) with an 8-3 ratio. QB Yates did return in the 4Q LW (broke ankle in Sept) but Sexton will remain the starter. WR Nicks has 50 rec (17.1). NC is having a solid season and has won as many games (7) as in ‘06 & ‘07 combined but now faces a MD team who seems to bring their “A game” when playing a ranked team (3-0 SU/ATS TY).
KENTUCKY 12 Vanderbilt 9 - UK has won 4 in a row SU but by just 6.3 ppg. This series produced our College Totals GOY winner in ‘05 on the Over, but now these 2 teams are struggling on off and the dog is 6-3 ATS. LY Vandy lost 27-20 despite 432-351 yd & 30-19 FD edges at home but the stadium was over half filled with UK fans. Vandy is 16-4 ATS as an AD (3-0 TY incl 2 outright upsets). UK is 6-10 ATS in home finales. UK finally found their off LW with true frosh QB Cobb rushing for 82 yds & 3 TD as they came up just short vs GA (38-42, +12’). VU has used 2 QB’s TY and starter Adams was inj’d LW (CS) and Nickson avg 111 ypg (51%) with a 10-8 ratio. Vandy is off their 4th straight loss after starting out the ssn 5-0 and their bowl hopes may rest on this gm. UK has the edge on off (#78-106) and Vandy the edge on def (#25-43). We’ll side with the home tm whose off has shown improvement since Cobb took over.
BAYLOR 41 Texas A&M 37 - A&M rushed for 352 yds (5.4) & had a 43:18-16:42 TOP edge in LY’s 34-10 (-16’) win (BU just 4 FD in 1st 3Q). A&M is 16-1 SU in the series (only loss here in ‘04 in OT as a 25 pt fav). BU took it to OT again in ‘05 but A&M has covered the L/2. Aggies are 3-14 SU & 4-13 ATS on the road in Nov. The Bears are 5-12-1 ATS in home finales. A&M was hammered by OU LW (outgained by 375 yds), but vs non-ranked B12 foes are avg 34 ppg & 454 ypg (500+ twice). QB Johnson is avg 213 ypg (60%) with a 19-6 ratio. BU was mauled LW by Texas (just 272 yds, trailed 42-14 after 3Q) and is on a 2-18 SU & 6-14 ATS (backdoor LW) run in B12 play. QB Griffin is avg 176 ypg (59%) with a 12-2 ratio & is the tm’s leading rusher with 688 yds (4.8) accounting for 66% of the offense. Both tms will be on a bye next but BU’s bowl drought continues for a 14th straight yr while A&M must win this for a bowl berth at 4-6 with Texas in 2 wks (beat outright L/2Y).
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
New Mexico 24 COLORADO ST 20 - NM’s final gm. Twelve of the L/15 have been decided by SD’s and the L/2Y its been decided on the last play. Not surprisingly the DOG has covered 8 in a row with 5 outright upsets. The visitor is 8-1 ATS. CSU HC Fairchild was the OC at NM from ‘87-’89. LW his tm suffered another tough loss as they couldn’t stop the grind-it-out AF option. It was close in the 1H and could’ve been tied but a delay pen negated a 1 yd TD run & CSU settled for a FG, 21-17 at half. In the 2H AF brought pressure, effectively shutting down the Rams. CSU was outgained 455-354 in the 38-17 loss. Thanks to a decent 1H, Farris finished with 251 yds (53%) and now avg 221 ypg (62%) with a 13-9 ratio. WR Greer (52, 17.8) had his 3rd 100 yd gm and big TE Sperry has 26 rec (12.5) TY. NW will suffer its 1st losing ssn S/’00 after a 27-20 loss (380-258 yd edge) in a gm that turned in the 4Q when LV got a blk’d P & ret’d it for a TD (27-17). QB Gruner avg 104 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio but has 318 yd rush (4.7). RB Ferguson has 1,018 yd (4.8) with 13 TD. NM has huge def (#33-109) & ST’s (#25-112) edges and this is their ssn finale.
W MICHIGAN 37 Toledo 17 - The Broncos are 22-5 SU in their home finales and LY broke a streak of 9 straight losses in the Glass Bowl with a 42-28 road win (+1’). WM rolled to a 31-10 win here (+10’) in ‘06. Toledo is 6-15 as an AD. We got another Big Dog outright upset on WM (+7’) as they upset Illinois 23-17 (3H Small College Play), for the MAC’s 4th win over the B10 TY. WM was outgained 443-365 but played a bend don’t break D and scored 14 pts off 2 int. Toledo’s HC Amstutz announced his resignation effective at the end of the ssn, and a shocked Toledo fell behind 21-0 to Akron and lost 47-30 being outgained 458-370. UT has played the tougher schedule (#67-113) but WM has the edges on off (#43-97) and def (#60-92). WM QB Hiller is avg 316 ypg (69%) with a 30-5 ratio. RB West has 909 (5.1) but was inj (CS) vs Illinois. WR Simmons leads with 84 rec (12.0) and played a major part in the upset of the Illini. UT QB Opelt is avg 195 ypg (62%) with an 11-4 ratio. While Toledo is guaranteed a losing season, WM is still has an outside shot at the MAC West Crown but a win here would put them in prime position for just their 2nd bowl appearance in the L/20Y.
LOUISIANA TECH 27 Utah St 13 - USU won the first 2 gms of the series but since becoming WAC foes, LT is 3-0 SU/ATS winning all 3 by DD’s. Surprisingly, the HT is 1-4 ATS (2-3 SU) & all 5 have been decided by an avg of 10 ppg. USU is 3-12 SU but 7-8 ATS in conf AG’s since joining the WAC. QB Borel is avg 138 ypg (55%) with an 11-7 ratio & leads the team with 523 yds rushing. After avg just 117 ypg in the first 7 gms, Borel avg 226 ypg over the next 3 but was just 3-8 for 35 yds & 1 int LW at Boise. LT has the edges on off (#95-107), def (#67-97) & ST (#20-89) here. Tech is 7-2 SU & 5-2 ATS at home under HC Dooley, including 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS TY with outright upsets over Miss St (22-14, +8) & Fresno (38-35, +4’). LT is fresh off its first road win of the ssn beating SJSt 21-0 LW (LT’s first shutout S/‘96) & they held the Spartans to just 148 yds & 6 FD’s. QB ******* is avg just 68 ypg (49%) with a 2-1 ratio but LT is 3-1 with him as the starter. RB Porter has 792 yds (5.4) & has really turned up his production. After rushing for 201 yds (50 ypg) in the first 4 gms, Porter has rushed for 591 yds (118 ypg) in the L/5.
East Carolina 24 SOUTHERN MISS 20 - EC is just 2-10 (2-9-1 ATS) in the series but did win their last trip here in ‘06, 20-17 (+6). LY EC led 21-14 in the 4Q but SM got a TD with :32 left to pull out the 28-21 road win. The visitor is 13-4-1 ATS. EC is off a 19-16 OT win (-8) over Marshall and now controls their own destiny in CUSA East. QB Pinkney played the entire game after rotating with Kass the L/2 and is avg 166 ypg (61%) with a 7-3 ratio. RB Whitley has become the workhorse with 203 total yds (4.0) the L/2W and now has 330 (5.4) on the season. The Pirates’ D has all’d just 12 ppg the L/3. SMiss is off a 17-6 win at UCF (-3) and again avoided their 1st losing ssn S/’93. SM outgained UCF 338-208, with 150 yds rushing, despite being without RB Fletcher who is #12 in NCAA avg 117 ypg and he is expected to return here. QB Davis is avg 246 ypg (57%) with a 16-7 ratio and has 8 rush TD’s. WR Brown has 844 ttl yds (17.2) and 10 TD’s. This will be the last home gm for 20 Golden Eagle Sr’s and they are 7-4 ATS in home finales, but are on a 2-5 ATS run TY. The Pirates have the East championship in sight and will not let the Eagles stand in their way.
Uab 24 TULANE 23 - LY Tulane had 504-372 yd & 24-15 FD edges but UAB got a 92 yd KR TD and a FR TD to win 26-21, which broke a streak of 4 straight Tulane covers in the series. UAB is off a bye and has only played 1 gm the L/3W. They were dominated 70-14 at SMiss last time out and have now lost 19 straight AG’s (7-12 ATS). QB Webb is avg 206 ypg (58%) with a 10-15 ratio and is also the leading rusher with 736 yds (5.1) and 7 TD’s. The Blazers D is all’g 477 ypg and 37 ppg. TU is off a 42-14 loss at Houston and has now lost 5 in a row (2-3 ATS). QB Moore is avg 185 ypg (59%) with a 7-8 ratio, and was rotating with rFr Kemp (PS#148), but Kemp is out for the ssn after breaking his collarbone LW. The ground gm has avg’d just 66.5 ypg the L/2 after losing RB Anderson (864, 5.0) for the yr. The banged up D all’d 693 yds to the Cougars LW, but should be healthier here. This is the home finale for TU (27 Sr’s) with B2B rd gms on deck and in the same situation LY they beat UTEP 34-19 (+4). UAB has a chance to get a rare road win.
Missouri 44 IOWA ST 20 - Mizzou was held to 366 yds LY (124 below avg) & ISU covered (+28’). Last time here (‘06) it was McCarney’s final game & a late flag (Pinkel very upset) wiped out a MO TD as ISU pulled the outright upset (21-16, +13’) which also was another Underdog POW Winner on these pages. ISU is 12-5 ATS in home finales but the HT is 3-7 ATS. MO destroyed KSU LW (led 41-10 late 4Q). QB Daniel is avg 326 ypg (76%) with a 28-10 ratio. ISU has dropped 8 straight (up 24-13 mid-4Q LW) but Chizik’s bunch showed that they are not giving up. QB Arnaud is avg 202 ypg (60%) with a 10-6 ratio. ISU is ranked #116 in our def pass eff all’g 271 ypg (67%) with a 25-10 ratio. MO has huge off (#6-77) & def (#39-104) edges and the Tigers have won 16 straight (9-5 ATS) vs non-ranked tms (avg win by 26 ppg). ISU has covered 3 straight in this series but MO has a bye on deck & Pinkel will not overlook anyone as the Tigers still control their own destiny for a B12 North Title & possible BCS bowl.
OREGON ST 24 California 23 - Huge implications for OSU in this one as they still have P10 Championship & Rose Bowl aspirations left. The Beavers, who have gone 14-7 ATS vs Cal, were able to give HC Riley his 1st win in 10 tries vs UCLA LW behind bkup QB Canfield (222 yds, 73%, 2-1 ratio) as RB Rodgers set a P10 frosh rush record at 1,089 yds (100+ yds in 7 gms TY). A surprising detail in this series is that the HT was dropped 5 in a row SU & ATS incl LY when #2 Cal had QB Riley make his 1st start. While he hit 20-34 for 294, he made a frosh mistake as trailing 31-28, he ran with no timeouts left and was tkl’d at the OSU10 which allowed the clock to run out. The Bears dropped a tough matchup LW in LA vs the Trojans all but ending their chances at a conf title as their off was held to just 165 yds in the 17-3 defeat. It’s not clear at this moment who will start at QB as Longshore was benched in favor of Riley in the 2H but neither fared well. Cal has dropped 4 straight ATS playing the 2nd of B2B RG’s & while OSU has covered 5 of their L/6 in this series, it might not matter in a matchup that has been very unpredictable.
OREGON 37 Arizona 31 - The Wildcats travel to Eugene off a virtual bye as they handed WSU yet another beatdown in Pullman while becoming bowl eligible in the process. HC Stoops has been a DD dog in all 4 meetings vs the Ducks but is 3-1 ATS & has outright upsets the L2Y incl their 1st win in Autzen Stadium S/’86 in their last trip here. LY QB Dixon got injured with UO up 7-0 & the backup QB’s struggled in the road loss which ended their National Title aspirations. The Ducks are 10-4 ATS but needed to rally back late to pull out a sloppy win LW vs Stanford as 4 fmbl’s & a safety nearly cost them the expected victory. UO could have the weather advantage here (rain expected) as they are built for the ground (274 rush ypg). While AZ has had solid def numbers in ‘08 (285 ttl ypg), the Ducks will be seeking legitimate revenge in this one & should be too strong for the Wildcats.
WASHINGTON 21 Ucla 20 - This game marks the much anticipated return of former HC Neuheisel as he brings his Bruins into Seattle. Neuheisel was the HC for UW from ‘99-’02 posting a 33-16 record but did not leave the program in very good shape. Tied 3-3 at the half LW vs OSU, UCLA self-imploded in the 2H falling to the Beavers as QB Craft completed just 20 of 42 incl 2 more crucial int’s. The Bruins are 8-2-1 ATS vs the Huskies but are 1-4 ATS in trips to the state of Washington recently including a 4H LPS Winner on UW against the Bruins back in ‘06. LY these 2 programs combined for 41 4Q points as UCLA pulled away late at the Rose Bowl. After a disappointing loss to ASU in a game that they actually led mid-3Q, UW remains winless in ‘08 (11 straight losses dating back to ‘07). The Huskies stay in Seattle for their final HG of the ssn where they have dropped 4 straight in this situation (1-3 ATS). UW has failed to cover 8 of 9 TY & while they may be looking forward to a clean slate next year, UCLA is just 1-8 ATS as a conf AF. A very pumped anti-Neuheisel crowd could impact the Huskies some here & potentially help pull out the surprising upset.
Georgia 27 AUBURN 20 - LY UGA wore all black jerseys for the 1st time in the modern era & had fans stage a “Black Out” of Sanford Stadium. UGA pulled off a 45-20 rout (-1’) for the 2nd straight yr (37-15 +11’ here in ‘06) in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. The 45 was the most pts allowed by Tuberville at Auburn. Great spot for Auburn as they are off a confidence building 37-20 win over UT Martin in which Aub rested several starters including 3 inj’d members of the DL (CS). This is UGA’s 4th straight away game in SEC play and they barely got past UK LW 42-38. Aub has now lost 8 in a row ATS and needs to win 1 of their L/2 to make a bowl (last gm at AL in 2 wks). Aub QB Burns has 261 rush, 560 pass since taking over the off the L/3 gms. Aub RB’s Tate (615, 4.4) & Lester (278, 3.8) have alternated as both have been banged up recently. UGA QB Stafford is avg 259 ypg (61%) with a 15-8 ratio and RB Moreno has 1,113 (5.9). UGA has a large edge on off (#9-84), a small edge on D (#18-34) and the visitor dominates the series (11-4-1 SU, 11-5 ATS).
Byu 26 AIR FORCE 23 - We have won with the Cougs many times in this series incl ‘89 as our GOY. Mendenhall is 3-0 vs AF with the avg win by 22 ppg and LY held them to a ssn-low 231 yds. LY we had a 4H Top LPS and GUARANTEED a DD cover and BYU delivered 31-6 (-11’)! Mendenhall also had great success vs the AF option when he was a DC at NM and is 7-3 ATS in his career. AF moved to 8-2 SU (7-2 ATS) with a 38-17 win over Colo St LW. The Falcons brought more pressure in the 2H and shutdown CSU holding them to 120 yds (234 1H yds). QB Jefferson had his best showing (3-8 for 171, 2-0 ratio) and now has 455 ttl yds (60%) with a 4-1 ratio TY. RB Clark had a career day with 136 yds and in his 5 gms as the starter has run for 417 (4.8). The Cougs got back to their blowout ways, taking it out on SDSt LW, 41-12. QB Hall avg 307 ypg (71%) with a 32-7 ratio, but away from home he’s only avg 217 ypg (67%) with a 10-6 ratio. His top targets are WR Collie (78 rec, 15.2) and TE Pitta (67, 13.1) who account for 66% of the rec offense. BYU has had a rough go vs some of the mid-level MWC tms TY (NM, UNLV, CSU) and now takes on an 8-2 Falcon squad. Look for the Falcons (7-2 as a dog under Calhoun) to keep this closer than expected.
FLORIDA 34 South Carolina 13 - Tebow had a career high 5 rush TD’s accounting for 424 ttl yds in the Gators 51-31 win LY. UF is 16-1 SU in the series but Spurrier is 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) vs his alma-mater. In his first return to the Swamp, Spurrier’s team fell by 1 (16-17, +13’). This is a battle of Top 10 defenses (UF #4, SC #7) but UF has a large edge on off (#3-68) led by QB Tebow avg 193 ypg (65%) with a 17-2 ratio and 354 rush (3.4) with 10 TD’s. Spurrier has alternated his QB’s with Garcia (121 ypg) & Smelley (160 ypg) even taking every other snap LW in their win over Ark. SC is last in the SEC in rush ypg (104, 2.9) but first in rush ypg allowed (101, 4.0). Spurrier is 8-2-1 as an AD, but SC will have trouble matching pts with UF. Even though UF clinched a spot in the SEC Champ gm vs #1 AL with their win over Vandy LW, Meyer (12-5-1 as HF) has been going for the throat each week with frontdoor covers vs Miami & Ark TY.
NEVADA 33 San Jose St 20 - The fav is 7-1 ATS in this series with the only loss coming LY. SJSt HC Tomey is 2-17 SU but 7-12 ATS as an AD while UN is 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS at home under Ault. This gm will likely come down to UN’s off (#12-118) vs SJSt’s D (#49-85). The Spartans’ D (#21 in the NCAA) has been solid posting 31 sks & 15 int. SJSt’s off was dormant LW mustering just 148 ttl yds & only 6 FD’s in a 21-0 loss to LT. QB Reed is avg 150 ypg (65%) with a 7-6 ratio but needs to regain his early-ssn form. In his first 5 gms, he passed for 1,114 yds (223 ypg) & completed no less than 70% with a 7-3 ratio, but in his L/3 gms he’s passed for only 234 yds (78 ypg) & 46% with an 0-3 ratio. Much of UN’s off success can be attributed to its OL, aka “The Union.” UN has the #1 rush off (324 ypg), #5 overall off (524 ypg) & #13 scoring off (38 ppg). QB Kaepernick is avg 183 ypg (59%) with a 13-4 ratio to go with 870 yds rushing & 14 TD’s (most by a QB TY). RB Taua leads the WAC with 1,159 yds (7.3) & is off a career high 263 yd outing LW in a win at Fresno where UN racked up 472 of its 600 ttl yds on the ground! UN also boasts the NCAA’s #3 run def (74 ypg) but its weakness is its inability to stop the pass all’g 320 ypg (#119 in the NCAA).
MARSHALL 23 Ucf 6 - LY UCF coasted to a 27-3 HT lead winning easily 47-13 outgaining the Herd 472-337 at Bright House. While in the MAC, Marshall won all 3 meetings, but since joining CUSA the Knights have won all 3. Marshall HC Mark Snyder was a graduate asst/LB coach for UCF (‘89-’90). The Herd are off a tough 19-16 OT loss (+8) at East Carolina and now need help to win the East. MU was outgained 387-292 as QB Cann was int’d twice in the 1H. Cann is avg 189 ypg (52%) with a 10-8 ratio. RB Marshall rushed for 123 yds (6.2) LW and now has 618 (4.2) on the ssn. WR Passmore leads with 795 total yds (17.3). UCF has now lost 4 SU in a row after dropping a 17-6 (+3) decision to S Miss in which they were outgained 338-208. The Knights have not settled on a QB and are avg just 16.9 ppg. QB’s Calabrese and Greco continue to battle every week in practice to see who will start and have combined for 158 ypg (45%) with an 8-7 ratio. Leading rusher Weaver has just 348 yds (3.4). MU is 17-2 SU (13-4 ATS) in Nov HG’s and UCF is just 7-15 ATS in conf AG’s, so we like the Herd.
Boise St 44 IDAHO 13 - Boise has gone 9-0 SU (6-3 ATS) & has avg 50 ppg winning by an avg of 32 ppg in this series. The HT has covered the L/5. UI is 7-7-1 SU (2-3 ATS) vs BSU in HG’s but the Broncos have not lost to UI in Moscow S/’95. UI is coming off a bye & is playing its 3rd consecutive HG with this its home finale. The Vandals are on a modest 3-1 ATS run but they were on a 3-17 ATS skid. Last time here (‘06), UI got a 4Q TD but missed the 2 pt conv & trailed 28-26 but gave up 2 TD’s in the final 5:02 & lost 42-26 (+21). UI QB Enderle is avg 169 ypg (53%) with a 17-10 ratio & he looks often for HB Williams who has 54 rec (12.7) & 6 TD’s. BSU is 11-1 SU & 6-6 ATS as an AF & is also 9-0 SU & 5-4 ATS as conf AF under HC Peterson. The Broncos have the edge on off (#24-110), def (#19-118) & ST’s (#16-83) here. RFr QB Moore is playing like a seasoned veteran avg 270 ypg (71%) with a 20-6 ratio & leads the WAC in pass eff (167.1). The Broncos’ D is simply dominating the opposition holding foes to 10.3 ppg & has held 6 of its 8 opp TY to 7 pts or less! BSU seeks its 2nd BCS bowl bid in 3 yrs & a trip to the Kibbie Dome won’t derail those hopes.
Tulsa 49 HOUSTON 42 - LY Houston needed a win at Tulsa to lock up the West Title & Tulsa destroyed UH 56-7 leading 56-0. In ‘06 here UH had a 471-249 yd edge in a 27-10 (-3’) home win. Tulsa is off a bye and is 3-0 SU and ATS off a bye under Graham. They beat N Mex 56-14 (-10) in the same situation earlier TY. TU did see its BCS bubble burst last time out in a 30-23 loss at Ark and the 23 pts were their lowest off output of the season (avg 52.0 ppg). QB Johnson is avg 331 ypg (67%) with a 33-10 ratio and leads NCAA in pass eff. RB Adams leads tm with 688 yds (5.5) while WR Marion has 887 ttl yds (26.7). TU has our #100 pass eff D, but is #2 in NCAA with 31 sks. UH is led by QB Keenum, who is 2nd in NCAA in total off with 396 ypg. He is avg 376 ypg (67%) in the air with a 29-9 ratio. RB Beall rushed for 176 yds LW and set a UH freshman record with his 10th rushing TD and now has 801 yds (6.5). Both teams have high-powered offenses (TU #4, UH#14), but struggle on D (TU #93, UH #91) so this should be a shootout. The visitor is 4-1 ATS and TU usually thrives in these uptempo games, but UH still has a shot in the West and has revenge on their mind
FRESNO ST 41 New Mexico St 34 - Fresno is a perfect 14-0 SU (2-3 ATS) but despite the lopsided series, the Aggies have had the ball at the end trailing by a single score but were SOD in each of the L/2Y. Something has got to give as FSU is only 2-8 ATS as a conf HF & NMSt is just 3-9 ATS as a conf AD. The Aggies are 2-12 SU & 4-10 ATS in conf AG’s since joining the WAC & just 2-17 SU & 6-13 ATS as an AD under HC Mumme. However, NMSt has won its L/2 SU/ATS as an AD. The Aggies have the NCAA’s #9 pass off avg 308 ypg led by QB Holbrook who is avg 280 ypg (66%) with a 20-13 ratio. He has a pair of 50+ rec WR’s to throw to in Williams (65, 15.5, 7 TD) & Harris (53, 9.2, 2 TD). Fresno is 10-5-1 ATS in home finales, but the Bulldogs are on an 0-8 ATS slump & are just 4-9 ATS in conf HG. FSU continues to be reminded of just how difficult its goal of winning an outright WAC Title can be & is coming off B2B conf losses. LW Fresno was steamrolled for 600 ttl yds in a home loss to Nevada with 472 of those yds coming on the ground. Fresno has the edge on off (#39-81), def (#108-112) & ST (#52-104) & QB Brandstater is avg 228 ypg (61%) with a 17-8 ratio. While FSU’s hopes of landing in a BCS bowl were shot in September, its hopes of landing in a bowl are not.
Usc 37 STANFORD 10 - The Trojans journey for their last game out of LA TY fresh off a strong performance vs Cal as they have now outscored their opposition by a 231-23 mark since their loss to OSU (allowing an NCAA low 6.7 ppg, 7 TD all yr). Pete Carroll (25-0 SU in the month of November) is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in P10 revenge games & this one was the biggest upset in NCAA history LY with USC (-41 at home) being stunned 24-23 on a 4th down 10 yd TD pass by QB Pritchard in his 1st career start. Stanford nearly pulled the upset LW in Eugene as they were aided by 4 fmbls & a safety but allowed the game winning TD w/:06 left. They have won & covered their L/5 home gms & are still in need of one more victory in the next 2 weeks to achieve bowl eligibility. Star RB Gerhart (932 yds, 5.5) however could be limited with an inj here (CS). USC is just 3-6 ATS vs Stan but won the last time here 42-0 (-28) & should be holding nothing back with a bye on deck.
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
Nebraska 38 KANSAS ST 30 - HT is 9-2 SU & KSU has covered 6 of L/8 vs NU. Huskers won here 21-3 (-8’) in ‘06 & LY Ganz shattered NU’s single gm pass rec (510) helping NU pile up 702 yds in a 73-31 rout as a 7’ pt HD. NU became bowl eligible LW with their revenge beating of KU (up 45-28 late 4Q). QB Ganz is avg 283 ypg (69%) with a 19-9 ratio. KSU lost to Mizzou LW (all’d 511 yds) in the 1st gm since firing HC Prince (this marks 1st home gm since decision). QB Freeman (just 121 pass yds LW) is avg 255 ypg (60%) with a 15-8 ratio. KSU is ranked #119 in our pass eff def allowing 241 ypg (60%) with a 21-7 ratio while NU comes in at #53 (237 ypg 60% 15-7). Both offenses are potent (NU#13, KSU#28) with NU having the better def (#58-86) but KSU has the huge ST edge (#3-63). KSU (4-6) still has a shot at a bowl (ISU next), but they are off 4 road gms in 5 wks. The Cats have been non-competitive the L/3 wks (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS w/backdoor cover, 40+ all’d in each) and may have packed it in while awaiting word on who will be their next HC.
Oklahoma St 37 COLORADO 16 - CU is 11-2 SU (5-8 ATS) vs OSU (avg score 30-18). In ‘05 (last gm), OSU was shutout, went 2 of 17 on 3rd D & had just 208 yds. CU is 11-1 SU in home finales not involving NU (9-3 ATS). CU dropped its 7th straight ATS LW vs ISU, but had a B12 high 28 pts & ssn high 422 yds. Under HC Hawkins CU is 8-14 SU & 7-15 ATS in B12 play. QB’s Hansen & Hawkins (HC son) have comb to avg 176 ypg (57%) with a 15-8 ratio, but Hawkins might have eliminated the 2-QB system as he led the comeback LW (down 10-0 at HT, 226 yds 69% 4-0 ratio in 2H). OSU (8-1 ATS, 1st ATS loss LW) was hammered LW (outgained 629-368 all’g 38 FD) in a emotional gm vs TT eliminating them from a BCS bowl (10-2-1 ATS after SU loss). QB Robinson is avg 226 ypg (67%) with a 20-6 ratio. RB Hunter (1332 yds, 6.7) & WR Bryant (64 rec, 17.8) provide solid weapons. Both tms do have byes on deck. CU is ranked #56 in our pass eff D all’g 214 ypg (64%) with a 13-8 ratio. OSU has huge off (#8-101) & ST (#21-111) edges and brings in the better def (#41-56). OSU is playing its 3rd AG in 4 wks & at 4-6 CU has slim bowl hopes but they are avg just 15 ppg (-17) & 311 ypg (-87) in B12 action. Keep in mind OSU’s only losses were vs #1 & #2 ranked foes riding a 15-1 ATS streak vs non-ranked opp’s.
USF 31 Rutgers 17 - LY on a rain soaked field on Thurs night Rutgers had 7 sks and beat #2 USF, 30-27 as they wore all black uniforms for the 1st time ever. The red hot Knights have covered 6 straight as QB Teel (222 ypg, 59%, 12-10) has thrown only 3 int the L/5 gms after tossing 8 in the 1st 4. RB Young (478, 3.8) missed gms 2-5 and seems back to full health as he rushed for a ssn high 143 LW. USF now returns home after B2B conf road losses and had a bye week to regroup with conf title expectations dashed. QB Grothe (230 ypg, 64%, 14-5) has moved his squad (#31 off, 418 ttl ypg & 23 FD/gm) but they have struggled in the redzone scoring 21 or less in 3 of 4. The D (#23) will be the key as they’ve fought through their injuries and are all’g only 282 ypg. The front 7 has held opp’s to 2.7 ypc while getting 11 sks in 4 gms and the secondary has held opp’s to 53% completions. LY USF went 3-0 SU/ATS in their L/3 reg ssn games and expect them to pressure Teel into the same mistakes he made earlier TY.
Utah 44 SAN DIEGO ST 16 - UT is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the series with the avg win by 20 ppg. LY UT held SDSt to just 211 ttl yds, more than 200 under their ssn avg. Eight of the L/9 have been decided by 14+ and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS with the visitor 16-2 ATS. Despite being outgained 416-275,the Utes kept their BCS hopes alive LW with a 13-10 win over TCU, delivering as our Thurs night Marquee. UT benefitted from 2 missed TCU 4Q FG’s (would’ve put them up 7) and Johnson found WR Brown w/:48 left for the win. Johnson now avg 205 ypg (66%) with a 15-8 ratio. He has 5 rec’s with 200+ yds. The top rushers are Asiata (550, 5.1, 9 TD) and Mack (477, 4.6). SDSt lost to BYU LW, 41-12 (outgained 421-280). Aztecs have been outscored on avg 43-13 in MWC play (2-4 ATS) incl a 70-7 blowout. Inj’s have depleted the squad & HC Long said “We’re literally trying to survive from one play to the next.” QB Lindley avg 254 ypg (55%) with a 12-7 ratio in his 8 full gms. RB Henderson has 391 yds (4.4) and WR V. Brown has 54 (9.2). UT has all the edges (off #32-115, D #22-117, ST #14-88). With UT in a MONSTER TCU/BYU sandwich we expect them to sneak in some BYU practice TW, but that shouldn’t affect the blowout here.
UTEP 48 Smu 38 - LY UTEP overcame a 28-7 deficit & scored a TD w/:07 left to force OT & won it 48-45. UTEP is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in the series and 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) at home but the visitor is on a 4-2 ATS run. The Miners are 4-5 and need a win to keep their bowl chances alive as they finish with 2 tough road gms (UH, EC). UTEP is off a 37-24 win at ULL in which they outgained the Ragin’ Cajuns 408-384. QB Vittatoe threw for 5 scores and is now avg 243 ypg (56%) with a 24-6 ratio. RB Jackson leads the tm with 363 yds (4.4). SMU is off a 31-26 home loss to Memphis as they all’d 306 yds rushing and have yet to beat a IA team (0-9). The Mustangs lost QB Mitchell in 2Q (shoulder, CS) and he was replaced by rFr Logan Turner (PS#90) who finished 19-31 for 228 yds and a 2-0 ratio. UTEP has the offensive edge (#59-103) and both tms struggle on D (UTEP #106, SMU #113). SMU does have a bye on deck, so they should be focused on this gm and they are 12-6 ATS vs CUSA West. This is the home finale for UTEP, and the Miners are just 1-3 in these gms under Price, but with Mitchell’s status uncertain, we lean with the home team.
ARIZONA ST 59 Washington St 10 - Trailing late 3Q, ASU QB Carpenter led a late comeback to keep the Sun Devils’ slim bowl hopes alive in the 20 pt win LW in Seattle ending their school-record streak of 6 consec losses. ASU has won 4 straight vs WSU incl LY when Thomas Weber kicked a 37 yd FG with :50 remaining on the road (23-20, -9). For the 1st time all ssn vs a IA opp, WSU showed a bit of offense in the 59-28 loss to AZ as they even led 7-0 early before allowing 35 2Q pts but were still able to earn their 1st IA cover of the ssn (+41). The Cougars have gone 0-5 ATS of late in games played in the state of AZ incl the Sun Devils dominating 47-14 (+1) win in ‘06. The dog is just 2-10-1 ATS & you could almost expect another disappointing outcome for an overmatched Cougar squad as they have already become the 1st P10 team to allow 500 pts in a ssn (52+ pts allowed in 5 of the L/6). With 3 gms remaining on their schedule, 600 pts allowed is a distinct possibility.
WKU 23 Middle Tenn 20 - LY true Fr QB Dasher made his 1st start for inj’d Craddock & MT missed a gm tying 34 yd FG with :04 left. Craddock has been the lone starter TY and is avg 219 ypg (63%) with a 10-5 ratio. MT is off 24-21 win over ULM despite being outgained 448-368. They are in an SBC sandwich and can still avoid a losing ssn if they win the L/3 gms. WK is 10-2 SU in home finales but suffered their 8th loss of the ssn LW, 17-7 to Troy being outgained 429-216 (100 yd off in 1H) and outFD’d 24-15. QB Wolke left in 2Q with inj (CS) with QB Smith taking over. They have a 2 wk bye on deck before finishing their ssn at FIU. Although MT has played the tougher schedule (#87-105) and has the stronger def (#90-120), WKU would like to finish the ssn with 2 wins vs future SBC foes.
FLORIDA ATL 34 Louisiana-Lafayette 27 - LY in OT, ULL got to the 3 yd line, but a sack, false start and inc pass ended their hope to tie it up. FAU QB Smith threw a TD with :07 left to send it to OT. The visitor is 3-0 SU & ATS and FAU is 6-1 in Lockhart Stadium finales. They are off a 46-13 win over N Texas outgaining them 507-255. In their L/5 gms, QB Smith is avg 234 ypg (62%) with an 8-5 ratio and WR Gent has 23 rec (14.6). ULL’s 4 gm win streak came to an end losing 37-24 to UTEP. They had covered 7 straight prior to UTEP and were outgained 408-384 (294-185 pass). ULL is the SBC leader with #2 Troy on deck. QB Desormeaux is avg 185 ypg (62%) with a 9-8 ratio and RB Fenroy has 1,177 yds (6.8). ULL is avg 41 ppg the L/5 non-BCS gms while giving up 29 and is avg 328 rush ypg (6.8) vs SBC tms TY while giving up just 156 (4.7). FAU still has a shot at a winning ssn and has improved their point ttl in each of L/6 games.
MISSISSIPPI 34 Ulm 10 - Last met in ‘03, a 59-14 Ole Miss win (-28) as they had 612 yds. Nutt hired 2 former ULM asst’s to his staff at Miss (former ULM DC Kim Dameron & former ULM DB coach Ron Dickerson). Ole Miss is 4-3 as a DD fav but 8-19-1 ATS vs non-conf opp. Nutt is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS vs Weatherbie winning by a 47-15 avg. QB Snead is avg 201 ypg (54%) with a 14-11 ratio but does better vs non-conf foes avg 220 ypg with a 6-3 ratio. Ole Miss is fresh off a bye while ULM has played 6 straight SBC games and has one on deck. ULM is off a 24-21 loss to Mid Tenn despite outrushing them 236-90 and controlling the clock (37:13-22:47). They were down 17-0 in the first 18:00 with QB Lancaster susp’d for 1Q. He is avg 185 ypg (60%) with a 16-5 ratio. In their L/2 Nov AG’s vs SEC schools, ULM upset Alabama 21-14 (+24’) LY and almost upset Kentucky 42-40 (+20) in ‘06. UM has the clear advantage on off (#37-91), def (#40-110) and ST’s (#41-75). They have also played the tougher schedule (#23-118). This is UM’s easiest remaining game and they need just one win for a chance to get to their 1st bowl game since ‘03.
LSU 38 Troy 10 - This gm was originally scheduled for Sept 6 but moved due to Hurricane Gustav. At 6-3 Troy (off B2B 8 win ssns) gained bowl-eligibility for 3rd straight ssn after beating WKU LW 17-7. HC Blakeney keeps them playing hard as they are 6-3 ATS vs BCS teams. What is even more impressive is that they avg’d 400 ypg in 3 SEC road games LY and 366 ypg vs 2 Top 15 BCS tms TY (Ohio St & Okla St). QB Brown is avg 291 ypg (69%) with a 9-2 ratio as a starter L/4. WR Jernigan returned LW after missing the ULM gm with inj. He has 54 rec (12.3). LSU QB Lee has thrown 8 int’s in the L/3 incl 4 LW in their 27-21 OT loss to Alabama despite outgaining them 382-353. The Tigers are #21 in pass eff D (195, 55%, 7-5 ratio). Troy is 1-8 SU vs the SEC only losing by an avg of 12 pgg (7-2 ATS). LSU, on the other hand, is 31-0 SU vs SBC tms with an avg win of 46-3. In their only other meeting LSU was -24 in ‘04 and barely won 24-20. Troy is looking forward to the “SBC Title Game” on deck with ULL while their D could be the tonic that a struggling young QB needs (OSU’s Pryor got 4 TD passes in his 1st start vs Troy).
Tuesday November 18th N Illinois at KENT ST - LY NIU int’d KSU w/1:25 left on the NI10 to halt a Flash comeback as RB’s Anderson & Bryant had 208 of the Huskies’ ssn-high 235 rush yds. NIll is 4-1 ATS vs Kent St and won their last trip here 34-3 (-10’) in ‘06.
Wednesday November 19th Ball St at C MICHIGAN - This game could decide the MAC West race. CM has won 4 in a row SU and LY Ball St (-13) was at home thinking victory but was thrashed by CM 58-38 (led 51-24 after 3Q, Ball St garbage TD)! CM QB LeFevour ran for a career high 146 yds finishing with 506 ttl yds and the two combined for a Scheumann Stadium record 506 ttl yds. However, CM is just 4-9 ATS in home finales and while both tms upset Indiana TY, Ball St won by 22, while CM only won by 3.
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
(4) Angle Plays 28-9 76% L/4Y!
(3) TAMPA BAY
System Play 10-1
Go against any road team off a Thursday road game that scored 24 or more.
1994-2008: 11-2 85%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
AGAINST: DENVER PLAY: ATLANTA
4* Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE -
The Titans set the tone for the Jags season with a 17-10 win as a 3 pt HD in Wk 1. TEN had a 309-189 yd edge in the game but the TEN defense dominated with 7 sacks, 2 int & a fumble while holding JAX to 33 yds (1.9) rushing. JAX is 9-2 ATS as a HD but 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home TY. LY JAX went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with an avg 364-326 yd edge (+4 TO’s) winning by a 24-16 score. TY they have been outgained 353-303 (-1 TO’s) losing by an avg score of 24-21. TEN has outgained foes 316-254 on the road (+1 TO’s) with a 23-10 avg score. After not passing for 200 yds 1st 8 games TEN was forced to adapt to a CHI defense that held TEN to just 20 yds rushing (0.7). Collins surgically took apart CHI with 289 yds passing (73%) with a 2-0 ratio. JAX is off a “get right win” vs DET where they scored on 6 of their 1st 7 drives with a 384-256 yd edge. Garrard goes from the #29 pass def to TEN #12 pass def that has a 5-14 ratio. TEN has won four 4H Key Selections for us here & they continue to impress with their adaptability & physicality taking on all comers. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 JACKSONVILLE 13
3* ATLANTA over Denver - DEN overcame a 13 pt deficit late in the 3Q vs CLE on a short week LW to score 24 pts for the win. They do expect to get CB Bailey back but will still be without FS McCree & WLB Williams here. Despite rushing for 123 yds (4.4) LW DEN is down to their 6th & 7th string RB’s. Cutler essentially beat CLE by himself with 447 yds passing (57%) with a 3-1 ratio. DEN is 1-4 ATS in domes & 2-8 ATS vs the NFC. ATL is 12-4 ATS vs the AFC (2-0 TY). DEN has the #10 & #28 units (-8 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #23 units (+2 TO’s). This is a tough matchup for DEN’s #27 rush defense (146 ypg 5.1) vs ATL’s #2 rush offense (173 ypg 4.8) at home. DEN’s #28 pass defense is as bad as advertised with a 70% comp rate & 14-3 ratio (7.6 ypa). ATL has done very well vs def ranked in the bottom half going 6-0 SU & ATS with a 402-329 yd edge & 30-17 avg score. DEN isn’t as good as their 5-4 record shows & while Cutler should have a good day here vs a below avg ATL pass defense (#23) we’ll side with ATL as they have proven they are the real deal under HC Mike Smith who is a legit Coach of the Year candidate. FORECAST: ATLANTA 37 Denver 24
2* PITTSBURGH over San Diego - SD beat PIT 23-13 in the last meeting in 2006 as a 3.5 pt HF. SD is 1-7 ATS away vs a non-div foe with Turner. PIT is 2-6 ATS as a HF. The Steelers were very depleted LW vs IND as they were without LT Smith, CB McFadden, Roethlisberger played with a bad throwing hand & shoulder & RB Parker (shoulder) may be headed to the IR. They played a quality game vs an improving team LW but Steelerball backfired on them as after grinding out a 14 play drive that took up 8:27 & forcing IND to go 3 & out, Roethlisberger threw an int to give IND the ball on the PIT 32 which Manning converted into a TD. PIT then simply ran out of time as they got to the IND 27. SD was 100% coming out of the bye health-wise but struggled vs a very young KC team. SD let KC get a 13-6 lead in the 1H & Tomlinson only had 35 yds rushing (3.5). SD had 4 drives inside the KC 35 in the 1H but came away with a punt, 2 FG & an int. The “revamped” defense under Rivera allowed KC to convert 7 of 14 on 3rd Dn, only had 1 sack & allowed Thigpen to hit 8 passes of 11+ yds. SD is very disappointing, coming cross country (West Coast teams 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS) & facing an angry PIT team that needs a win to stay ahead of the surprising Ravens in the AFC North. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 28 San Diego 17
2* CAROLINA over Detroit - This is a bit of a flat spot for CAR who are off a long round trip to OAK & they have road games vs ATL & GB on deck. DET made a desperate move LW starting Culpepper on 4 days of practice vs JAX despite his not having taken a snap in 9 months prior. He finished with 104 yds (50%) with a 0-1 ratio & DET took him out of red-zone packages to keep him from being overwhelmed. Drew Stanton played & had 94 yds passing (75%) & a TD but was sacked 5 times. DET is 5-0 ATS as a DD dog under Marinelli. CAR is 5-0 SU & 3-0-2 ATS at home TY with the #9 & #9 home units (+5 TO’s) who have outgained foes 349-284 vs DET’s #24 & #28 road units (-1 TO’s) who have been outgained 392-284. CAR wasn’t very sharp coming out of their bye LW as Delhomme was very ugly LW with 72 yds (26%) a 1-4 ratio & woeful 2.7 ypa. CAR was saved by a good overall defensive effort & monster game by DE Peppers (7 tackles 3 sacks 3 tfl & 2 FF) that held OAK to just 2 of 17 (12%) on 3rd Dns & forced OAK to play #3 QB Tuiasosopo. DET is a fragile team who wilts when the game gets out of hand & look for CAR to regroup off a poor effort & quickly put the game out of reach here.
FORECAST: CAROLINA 27 Detroit 7
NY Jets at NEW ENGLAND - Thursday - NE beat the Jets 19-10 as a 1 pt AD in Wk 2 after losing QB Brady for the year moving to 9-3-1 ATS in the series. NE kept the gameplan vanilla for Cassel who had 165 yds passing (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & ran the ball 33 times (3.2). The yardage was basically even with the key moment coming in the 3Q when Favre forced an int which setup a 31 yd drive for TD. Mangini poured it on STL LW to create momentum here while NE played a solid ball control game to beat BUF LW. With both teams tied for the AFC East it’s a shame most of the US won’t be able to see it.
MIAMI 24 Oakland 6 - OAK beat MIA 35-17 as a 4 pt AD LY in a revenge game for former MIA QB Culpepper & with :30 left instead of taking a knee to run out the clock OAK ran it in to pile on. OAK had a 369-278 yd & 10:06 TOP edge with 299 yds rushing (6.1). West Coast teams (ARZ, OAK, SD, SF, SEA) are 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in EST games TY. Prior to the bye OAK had only been outgained an avg 326-311 with an avg score of 25-20. Russell was being brought along slowly & deliberately & avg’d 167 ypg (55%) with a 4-1 ratio. Since then OAK has been outgained 381-228 with an avg score of 23-7 & Russell (knee tendinitis) was kept out of LW’s game for his health mentally & physically. OAK has the #28 & #21 units (+0 TO’s) on the road being outgained 346-266 vs MIA #9 & #11 home units (+2 TO’s) which avg 349-298. MIA learned a valuable lesson LW with a Pennington int with MIA up 14-0 giving SEA a spark which let them back into the game. MIA still has major edges at QB, RB, a better defense with the #9 pass rush & are a team clearly with a sense of direction unlike OAK.
NY GIANTS 24 Baltimore 23 - The Giants are off LW’s SNF game vs PHI & have a pair of road games vs ARZ & WAS on deck. This is the 5th road game in 6 Wks & 3rd in a row for BAL. BAL shifts from a timing oriented passing attack to a balanced offense that can play power football (163 ypg 5.2) with an elite QB that minus the CLE game has avg’d 220 ypg (61%) with an 11-2 ratio (94.4 QBR). Over the L4W BAL has the #8 & #11 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Giants #19 & #6 units (+5 TO’s). BAL is 12-6 ATS vs the NFC. The Giants are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home TY thanks due the #4 & #3 home units (+7 TO’s) which have avg’d 375-236. BAL showed it can handle a high octane pass attack by holding HOU to just 13 pts & forcing 4 ints which were converted into 14 pts. They outrushed HOU 162 (4.1) to 75 (4.7) & have gone 28 games without allowing a 100 yd rusher. Non-div road teams that scored 40 or more on the road are 14-3 ATS since 1989. Despite a 6-3 record BAL is still an underrated team due to Flacco at the helm. However, with a 5-2 ATS record as a dog vs a Giants team off 2 tough games in 3 wks we’ll take the dog here.
INDIANAPOLIS 34 Houston 24 - The Colts beat the Texans 31-27 as a 3.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting TY. HOU was up 27-10 mid-4Q but Rosenfels lost 2 fumbles which IND converted into 14 pts & an int on HOU final drive to lose the game. IND avg 69.2 ypg rushing (3.3) TY which is 2nd lowest in franchise history (68.9 ypg in 1992) & 4th lowest in the NFL since 1970. Of the 38 teams that finished last in rushing just 2 have reached the playoffs. HOU is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a div dog being outscored 33-20 on avg. PIT, TEN, JAX, MIN & BAL are the common foes here with HOU going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS losing by an avg score of 34-18. IND is 3-2 SU & ATS with an avg score of 23-18. The difference has been pass defense with HOU allowing 183 ypg (65%) with a 10-2 ratio vs IND’s 201 ypg (69%) with an 0-7 ratio in these games. IND is beat up in the secondary with #1 CB Jackson (MCL) on IR & CB Hayden (hamstring) is iffy here but they have gotten solid play from FS Sanders the L2W. Rosenfels puts up good numbers for fantasy but has 7 TO’s in 11Q’s & with IND getting confidence building wins vs NE & PIT we’ll take the home team & the momentum here.
GREEN BAY 27 Chicago 23 - The Bears are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS vs GB with a 23-13 avg score. CHI swept GB LY despite being outgained in both games by 154 & 34 yds due to +6 TO’s. CHI is 2-10 ATS with Grossman starting but Orton has a shot to return as he has a low ankle sprain instead of a high which would have him out 4 games min. Grossman is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS vs GB but has only passed for 148 ypg (52%) with a 3-6 ratio. GB is 8-3-1 ATS at home. GB has the #23 & #9 units (+4 TO’s) vs CHI #18 & #25 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. GB is off a very misleading 1 point loss as they converted 3 int into 17 pts & had a 65 yd PR for a TD. GB was outgained 361-184 & lost the TOP battle by 10:10. CHI’s defense did a great job vs the run holding TEN to 20 yds (0.7) but their lack of a pass rush (#27 sacks L4W) cost them as they gave up 284 yds passing (73%) & 2 TD’s. Grossman (173 yds 54% 1-1 LW) led CHI to a 14 play 75 yd opening drive but CHI punted on their next 8 drives (64 yds) & had a FG blocked before a 68 yd drive for a TD to make it respectable. Both teams are off close losses & while GB has the home edge HC Smith made it his primary mission to beat GB when he took over so an outright upset wouldn’t be a surprise.
Philadelphia 30 CINCINNATI 20 - This is a flat spot for PHI who is off a big win vs ATL to regain their bearings, a long trip to SEA, a huge SNF game vs NYG & has a road game vs geographical rival BAL on deck. They get a CIN team that finally got on the winning track vs JAX before the bye. CIN is 0-4 SU & ATS after a bye. Home teams that won by 3 or less as a dog before their bye are 3-9 ATS when they return. PHI has all the edges being 9-3 ATS as a fav of 9 or more, having the #6 & 5 units (+6 TO’s) vs CIN #32 & #21 units (-7 TO’s) that is 29th & 31st in sacks allowed & sacks by, have a massive edge at QB with McNabb (92.0 QBR prior to SNF) vs Fitzpatrick (66.6 QBR). However, non-div HT’s off a bye are 7-3 ATS TY, fav’s of 9.5+ are 4-14 ATS TY. CIN is 4-0 ATS as a DD dog under HC Lewis & while PHI should win the game but the situation allows CIN to keep it close to the number.
New Orleans 34 KANSAS CITY 27 - This is a flat spot for NO who came in off their bye week with a poor game vs ATL & have a MNF home game vs GB & a road game vs TB on deck. KC is off a winnable game vs NYJ, blew a 21 pt lead vs TB in OT & lost to SD by 1 pt. NO is 8-4 ATS as an AF. The Saints are now on the outside looking in for their playoff hopes as Brees had his first 3 int game since Wk 3 vs TEN LY. NO simply couldn’t get a consistent effort out of the RB’s (65 4.6) but they do plan on getting RB Bush (94 ypg from scrimmage 5.1) back here. NO’s besieged #27 pass defense (14-6 ratio) lost CB McKenzie to a broken right kneecap. Thigpen has avg’d 237 ypg (65%) with a 6-0 ratio the L3W vs NYJ’s #21, TB’s #6 & SD’s #32 pass defenses. KC was without 4 defensive starters (LB Johnson, DE McBride, CB Surtain) LW & may have lost another 3 vs SD. They rallied vs SD after letting a 13-6 lead in the 1H slip away & were a 2 pt conversion at the end from winning the game. Home teams that lost by 3 or less as DD AD’s are 8-25 ATS. Compound that with their 2 previous losses vs a NO team that was shown up by a rookie QB in ATL & we’ll take road team by a TD in a higher scoring game here.
TAMPA BAY 20 Minnesota 13 - This is the 1st meeting since 2005 for these old NFC North foes. This is the 1st of B2B road trips to Florida for the Vikings. MIN is 9-18-1 ATS as a non-div AD. TB is 12-6-1 ATS as a non-div HF. TB needed the bye to get its running game healed as RB Dunn (back) sat out vs KC & RB Graham has split time at FB due to injuries to Askew (hamstring) & Cook. TB is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home TY with a 339-218 yd edge & 25-11 avg score. TB has held foes to just 69 yds rushing (3.4) forcing them into 3rd & long (30%) giving TB a 3-9 ratio at home TY. MIN’s defense came up big LW vs GB holding them to 1 of 11 on 3rd Dns, sacking Rogers 4 times & forcing 2 safeties. They had a 361-184 yd edge but RB Peterson had the late game winning TD & MIN has outrushed foes 172 (4.9) to 72 (3.6) the L4W. While MIN is off a good defensive effort, TB has a better defense, QB Garcia will have another week to work with an improving set of skill players & we’ll side with the home team here in a lower scoring game.
SAN FRANCISCO 21 St Louis 14 - This is the latest the initial game has been between these division foes since 1990. Martz gets another crack at his former team as he lost to STL 41-34 in 2006 5.5 AD with DET. He does harbor grudges as SF beat DET 31-13 as a 5 pt HF TY with 370-240 yd edge. STL beat SF 13-9 as a 3 pt AF LY to snap a 6 game ATS losing streak. SF is off LW’s MNF game vs ARZ & its unknown how the switch to Shaun Hill went. In their 6 game losing streak prior to MNF SF had only won the yardage battle in 1 game (SEA), being outgained 352-292, allowing a 9-4 ratio with 6 sacks (5 vs NE in 2nd West Coast game). STL was humiliated LW down 40-0 at the half giving the Jets 15-5 FD & 248-88 yd edges. STL pulled Bulger in the 3Q after he had 65 yds (46%) with an int. STL has not won the TOP battle in any game TY & have been outrushed 157 (5.0) to 97 (3.8) since Haslett took over. Neither team is particularly attractive as after his first 2 games vs WAS & DAL STL is 0-3 & their flaws are resurfacing. SF is an unknown as we are anxious to see if Singletary can force Martz to be more conventional but we’ll side with the home team by a TD as we want to see their play on MNF.
Arizona 30 SEATTLE 20 - This is the 3rd straight division game for ARZ & they are off LW’s MNF game vs SF. SEA just made the longest roundtrip possible in the NFL (5469 miles) in their 21-19 loss to MIA. SEA is 4-1 ATS hosting ARZ & 6-0 ATS as a div dog. After coming in as the Div favorite SEA is now 2-7 but even more surprising just 1-3 SU & ATS at home. They’ve now played 5 games without QB Hasselbeck & they’ve avg’d just 229 ypg vs 337 ypg in the 3 full games he played. He took snaps with the scout team LW & should be back here along with WR Branch (heel). ARZ offense continues to improve behind the rejuvenated Warner (302 ypg 73% 8-2 ratio since Jets) & they’ve shown they can be productive on the road avg 468 ypg & 31 ppg the L3 away. ARZ #3 offense should continue that same success vs the #31 pass defense of SEA (14-4 ratio). While SEA has not been a division HD since 2002 the Cardinals have the better offense, defense & catch Hasselback in his first live action in over a month.
Dallas at WASHINGTON - DAL desperately needed the bye to regroup & will be rewarded with QB Romo, RB Jones, LG Kosier & CB Newman all returning to the field here. WAS is hoping to get DE Taylor (calf) back & signed former OAK CB Hall over the bye. WAS was manhandled by PIT on MNF before the bye & NFL leading rusher Portis was held to just 51 yds (3.9). WAS came into DAL in the 1st meeting & beat them 26-24 as a 10’ pt AD. WAS outrushed DAL 161 (4.4) to 44 (4.0) & had a 17:18 TOP edge. Even though most of the pregame hype will be on the QB’s this game will come down to who has the better run game here.
Cleveland at BUFFALO - Brady Quinn became the 11th starting QB for CLE in the 10 years since their return. While he had 239 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio he only had 3 passes of 10 or more yds. For the 2nd week in a row CLE’s #27 defense let a big lead slip away for the loss. BUF was riding high with a 5-1 record after beating SD but has lost 3 straight div games. Quinn gets another favorable matchup as BUF’s defense which will likely be without 3 starters & the team has extra rest. BUF gave DAL a huge scare in their 1st MNF game in 13 years LY on MNF and are desperate after 3 straight division losses
The 3* Totals are 18-12 60%! Here are this week's plays
3★ Eagles/Bengals Over 47*
3★ Texans/Colts Over 49
3★ Rams/49ers Under 44*
2★ Broncos/Falcons Over 50
2★ Vikings/Bucs Under 40
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
NORTHCOAST SPORTS’ POWER PLAYS
4* PENN ST 52 INDIANA 6
PSU is 11-0 SU in this series winning by an avg of 17 ppg. PSU is in a letdown situation after
blowing a 9 pt lead at Iowa LW which knocked them out of the BCS Title gm. PP says the Lions will
take their frustrations out on the Hoosiers with a 46 pt win (line 34) and a 545-215 yd edge.
4* IOWA 32 PURDUE 10
The HT is 9-1-1 SU in this series winning by 15 ppg (L3 by 24 ppg). LY PU held Iowa without a
TD for the 1st time since ‘76 in their 31-6 win. Iowa is off their big shocker vs Penn St and PP says
Iowa will win this one by 22 (line 15) with a 410-255 yd edge.
4*WISCONSIN 29 MINNESOTA 12
UW is 11-2 SU in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Since their 4 gm ATS losing streak ended,
UW has covered 3 straight including LW’s big 4★ LPS win for us over Indy. PP says that UW will
win by 17 (line 13) with a dominating 495-220 yd edge and we agree
4* NOTRE DAME 29 NAVY 19
Navy ended the Nation’s longest series losing streak in their 3OT win over ND LY. This takes place in
Baltimore and NDis 4-1 ATS when facing Navy at a neutral site. PP calls for ND to win by 10 (line 3)
with a 460-285 yd edge and we agree
4* NEW MEXICO 26 COLORADO STATE 20
The dog has covered 8 in a row with 5 outright upsets in this series. This is NM’s fi nal game and
they are already out of the bowls while CSU still has an outside shot. PP calls for NM to win by 6
(line Even) with a 246-109 yd rush edge
4* TEXAS 44 KANSAS 28
UT is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in this series but KU has covered 6 of the L/7 home fi nales. PP says that UT will
win by 16 (line 12’) with the ydg forecast close. UT is still playing for a BCS bowl and could run this one up.
4* WASHINGTON 20 (+7 or more, 3★ if less) UCLA 25
Washington comes into this game at 0-9 and while they are 0-3 SU/ATS vs the P10 at home they
have been a play or 2 away from covering all 3. UCLA is now 1-8 ATS as a conf AF and UW gets the
4* OKLAHOMA STATE 36 COLORADO 12
While OSU’s record says 8-2 remember the losses were to a #1 Texas & #2 TT both on the road.
They rebounded after the fi rst loss crushing ISU 59-17 and should do so again here
4* OHIO STATE 30 ILLINOIS 10
OSU cashed as our 2008 COLLEGE GOY crushing NW 45-10. They have now won & covered
6 straight B10 road games inc winning the L2 by a combined 90-17. Add in that Illinois knocked off
OSU at home LY snapping an 18 gm home winning streak and we’ll ride them again here
4* FLORIDA STATE 33 BOSTON COLLEGE 23
This is the value play of the week as FSU won by 14 vs Clemson but outgained them 419-316 while
BC shutout Notre Dame 17-0 but were outgained 292-246. BC is already 0-2 on the ACC road.
4* ARIZONA STATE 50 WASHINGTON STATE 10
ASU’s offense is getting back in gear improving for a 4th straight week. They feasted on UW LW
with a 20 point road win. WSU has been outscored 152-16 in 3 P10 road games making this a 4★.
4* FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+) 29 ULL 29
There’s plenty of value on this FAU team as their offense struggled early behind an inj’d QB Smith.
They now have won 3 straight (2-1 ATS) and are a HD with a projected yardage edge of 376-446
3* SYRACUSE (+) 22 CONNECTICUT 29
The HT is 4-0 SU & ATS in this series and Syr has covered their L2 at home including their upset
of Louisville. PP says UC will win by 7 (line 10’) and we think the Orange will make a game of it in
what is most likely HC Robinson’s fi nal home game.
3* NC STATE (+) 20 WAKE FOREST 22
WF has covered 5 straight in this series including 3 upsets and the rule of thumb is to take the
underdog in WF gms. PP is leaning with NCSt +4 as the Wolfpack has a 344-316 yd edge and have
covered 6 of their L7 gms including LW’s upset of Duke.
3* WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 TOLEDO 14
LW WM gave us another Big Dog outright upset as they beat Illinois 23-17 (+7’). PP says that WM
will win by 20 (line 15’) with a 464-306 yd edge and WM is still in the bowl hunt with a big win
3* AIR FORCE 27 BYU 25
BYU has now failed to cover 6 straight and PP shows how close these teams are. BYU is forecasted
with a 388-369 yd edge but AF is projected to win by 2 and is a 4 point home dog.
3* TULSA 47 HOUSTON 39
It is rare to see a PP projection with BOTH teams topping 500 yards. The forecast is for 1105 total yds.
Tulsa has been more productive scoring-wise topping 45 pts 6 times while Houston has done it once
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
4* FALCONS 31 BRONCOS 19
(DEN #2 vs ATL #23 ATL #7 vs DEN #29) DEN has extra rest & will get CB Bailey back but are down to
their 6th & 7th string RB’s here. ATL is the real deal with a 6-3 record & QB Ryan is playing like a 4 year
vet. PP likes Cutler to have another good game here but ATL has a big edge with their #2 rush off vs
DEN’s #27 rush def & it shows with a 178-95 edge on the ground. ATL is much healthier, which helps
their big special teams edge here & the home team is the play here
3* COLTS 35 TEXANS 19
(HOU #4 vs IND #15 IND #22 vs HOU #19) IND is improving with big B2B wins to stay in the Wildcard
hunt vs div leaders & now take on a HOU team with a QB that has 7 TO’s in his L11 Qtrs. HOU gave up 22
4Q pts vs BAL LW & only had 7 plays in BAL territory in the 2H with 6 coming in garbage time. PP gives
IND a 390-291 edge & vs a HOU team that is on a 2-9 ATS road streak the Colts are the play.
3* CARDINALS 29 SEAHAWKS 19
(ARZ #3 vs SEA #27 SEA #30 vs ARZ #13) ARZ is off LW’s MNF game vs SF & if they won then a victory
here all but locks up the sorry NFC West. SEA expects QB Hasselbeck & WR Branch to return but he’s been
out 5 Wks & he long ago admitted ARZ’s “Steeler West” defense is the hardest for him to deal with. SEA
got a late cover vs MIA LW as they took advantage of their overaggressive def. PP gives ARZ a 447-269
yd edge with a good spec teams edge but not having a fi rm line keeps this from being stronger.
2* DOLPHINS 25 RAIDERS 10
(OAK #29 vs MIA #18 MIA #8 vs OAK #25) OAK is avg just 7 ppg & 228 ypg since Davis made the mistake
of fi ring Lane Kiffi n. They now have to travel to a MIA team that allowed a late cover to a depleted SEA
team LW as MIA gave up a pick-6 up 14-0. MIA is in the middle of a 3 game homestand & has NE on
deck while has 3 div games on deck with DEN starting it off. PP gives MIA a 339-253 yd edge but MIA is
4-20 ATS as a HF & DD favs 2-12 ATS TY keeping this from being a stronger play.
2* RAVENS 22 (+) GIANTS 23
(BAL #16 vs NYG #3 NYG #5 vs BAL #2) PP simply doesn’t give the 6-3 Ravens any credit but their 4
game win streak is vs foes a combined .361. The Giants are off 2 div rivals & a brutally physical game vs
PIT & PP forecasts a big 328-186 yd edge here. This is a fl at spot for the Giants as they have road games
vs ARZ & WAS. PP likes BAL to keep it within the line here which is good enough for a small play
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
THE SPORTS MEMO
VANDERBILT +4.5 AT KENTUCKY
The Wildcats might have played their best game of the year last week in a 42-38 loss to Georgia in Lexington. They gave a tremendous effort but could not hold a late 3-point lead or rally after Georgia scored the go-ahead touchdown. I have a hard time believing that they will be as pumped up for this game against Vanderbilt. Kentucky has dealt with numerous injuries all year and is playing its eighth straight game since their lone bye of the season. Vanderbilt had a bye two weeks ago before being crushed by Florida last week. The Commodoresstill need one win to gain bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. They were down 21-0 in a hurry against the Gators but likely gained some confidence after two late touchdown drives in garbage time. With an offense that typically sputters, those “small” victories can carry over from week to week. It is really hard to decipher the difference between these teams. Their offenses are both lethargic and field position had played critical role in every game in which they’ve competed. Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 in the role of an underdog and I see value with them getting more than a field goal in this matchup.
EAST CAROLINA +2 AT SOUTHERN MISS
Recommendation: East Carolina
At 2-4 in conference and 4-6 overall on the season, the transition to new head coach Larry Fedora’s systems have led to some growing pains for Southern Miss. Still, the trend line to success looks positive as they have perhaps turned the corner winning their last two games by a combined count of 87-20. This week they face East Carolina coming in off back-to-back overtime wins. With a non-conference schedule loaded with the likes of Virginia Tech, West Virginia, NC State and Virginia this team had a bit of a mid-season slump and was no longer a media darling. Now at 4-1 in the conference, the Pirates hold a commanding lead in the East division and are the only team in the division with an overall record of above .500. Last week against Marshall, ECU quarterback Patrick Pinkney returned to early season form, connecting on 26-of-37 for 287 yards and a touchdown. This week as they face a secondary that has allowed 23 passing touchdowns, the Pirates should have success moving the football. With Southern Miss running back Damion Fletcher sidelined with injury, this offense is one-dimensional and should have difficulties against an East Carolina defense that is head and shoulders above the rest of the conference.
TROY +20 AT LSU
LSU played its game of the year last week against Alabama, giving a tremendous effort in a heartbreaking overtime loss. That was without a doubt the most emotional game of the year for the players and fans. This week they have a make-up game against Troy, that will not have the same attention from the players. I would not be shocked to see LSU come out very flat and fall behind early. An outright loss is even a possibility. Troy is in the week conference, but they are not your typical Sun Belt outfit. The Trojans play solid defense with a handful of NFL-caliber players that don’t catch on at SEC schools. LSU’s penchant for throwing interceptions for touchdowns could once again come into play in this matchup. Troy played Ohio State tough in Columbus and has always done well when asked to step up in class. LSU’s season is basically over. They can’t win the SEC, can’t go to a BCS bowl, and it would be hard to imagine them being ready to play this week. Troy notched a spread-covering victory against an unfocused Georgia team late last year in a very similar spot and we feel they’ve have a repeat performance here.
RUTGERS AT SOUTH FLORIDA -7.5
Recommendation: South Florida
Payback is in order this weekend in Tampa. Last season, the Bulls were riding a wave of media hype, a 6-0 record, and talk of a National Championship before heading to Rutgers. The Knights quelled USF’s hopes with a 30-27 win. It was similar to that of Pittsburgh, who waltzed into Raymond James Stadium earlier this season and beat a 5-0 South Florida. That loss had a lasting effect as the Bulls lost two of their next three. With time to refocus and shore up some injuries, I expect South Florida to come with its best effort of the season. Meanwhile off an awful 1-5 start, Rutgers has circled the wagons by winning three straight. While they may be on an emotional high, the fact remains that this is a flawed ball club. They rank seventh and eight respectively in rush defense and rush offense among Big East schools and have no ability to take away the football with only seven forced turnovers. The Bulls should dominate the line of scrimmage and keep a mediocre Rutgers offense in check. I look for them to get off to a quick start and not let off the gas pedal until the final whistle.
CAL AT OREGON STATE -3
Recommendation: Oregon State
Cal’s last good effort came back on September 6th against a Washington State team that is on pace to be one of the worst teams in PAC-10 history. Since that victory, here’s what Cal has done: They got blown out at Maryland. They couldn’t move the football against a hideous Colorado State defense, outgained at home by a bottom-tier Mountain West team. They were equally bad the following week against Arizona State, escaping with the win only because the Sun Devils are one of the league’s worst teams. The Bears were blown out in the second half against Arizona. They led by only four in the fourth quarter against UCLA before a litany of Bruins errors gave Cal an easy win. They took advantage of sloppy conditions to beat Oregon in another poorly played game. And finally, they managed only three points in a loss to USC this past Saturday. The defense has struggled against quality rushing attacks, like the one they’ll see in Corvallis this week. The offensive line is an injury-riddled mess. The passing game has been awful no matter who takes the snaps. With the PAC-10 title still in play for the Beavers and an undefeated home record I look for them to cruise to an easy victory.
CINCINNATI AT LOUISVILLE +3.5
There has been an adjustment in price made for recent results and Cincinnati’s plan for redemption following last year’ loss to Louisville as a 10-point favorite. However, if this game was played just one month ago, the Cardinals would be favored. The Bearcats come in off two highly emotional wins over ranked foes (South Florida and West Virginia). Against the Mountaineers, UC was outgained in total yardage and had only two first downs but took advantage of two WVU turnovers. Louisville is off a misleading final score at Pittsburgh. UL’s five turnovers were the story line but a closer look shows that game was extremely even. In a statistical breakdown of this matchup we see Louisville has a 59 ypg advantage in the running game, while allowing just 91 ypg which ranks No. 7 in the nation. I’ve talked a lot about looking for underdogs that showcase a balanced offense and Louisville fits that criteria with a 200 ypg passing average to go with 178 ypg on the ground. In this rivalry battle for the Keg of Nails trophy, Louisville looks like a live home underdog.
ARIZONA AT OREGON -3.5
When I go back and look through Arizona’s results this season I come across one major theme; they have a hard time beating good rushing teams. While their defense has certainly played solid football this season, power teams have beat them up. They were out gained by 154 yards on the ground in a loss at New Mexico, 209 in a loss at Stanford and 51 in a loss at home to USC. With the Ducks ground-and-pound system in full stride right now I fully expect another Wildcat loss. Led by the superb running back tandem of LeGarette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson, Oregon ranks fifth nationally with over 275 rushing yards per game. We can also add in a little bit of an emotional factor for Oregon this week as well. If you’ll recall, Oregon was on their way to a possible BCS title game appearance or at least a PAC-10 title when they traveled down to Arizona last year. Not only did they lose that game but they lost QB Dennis Dixon, who was in the mix for the Heisman. The Ducks’ ability to win the time of possession battle should limit Arizona’s spread passing system.
I’ll call for the home team to emerge victorious this weekend in Eugene
MINNESOTA +14 AT WISCONSIN
After dropping back-to-back games, the Golden Gophers find themselves back in the comfortable role of an underdog this weekend. As an underdog, Minnesota has won all three games outright and this weekend faces a Wisconsin team that has showcased little to warrant this type of line against a legitimate foe. The Badgers have beaten three teams by this margin (Akron, Marshall and Indiana) -- none of which are on the same level as Minnesota. Even with a 55-point outburst against Indiana, Wisconsin has still been outscored by Big Ten teams 195-171. Minnesota’s ability to force turnovers (+15 TO margin) will likely come into play as UW has coughed it up 22 times in 10 games. Overall, the Big Ten is a cesspool of mediocre teams. Outside of Penn State and Ohio State there is little difference between any school. In my opinion, this line is an overreaction to last week’s results. Wisconsin played arguably its most complete game of the season in a blowout win at woeful Indiana whereas Minnesota was still shell-shocked from its loss to Northwestern en route to a poor performance against Michigan. This week, we’ll look for both teams to return to the norm and for the Gophers to hang against their biggest rival.
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH -3.5
Expect a solid rebound here at home from Pittsburgh after blowing a 17-7 lead against Indianapolis last week. This situation puts the Steelers in second of back-to-back home games off a home loss, which is a preferred spot when the host is a playoff-caliber squad. We must also consider the fact that Pittsburgh is now tied for the AFC North Division lead and they have an extremely difficult trio of road games over the next five weeks. Those factors make this a very important game for the Black and Gold and I fully believe they’ll play this game with 60 minutes worth of focus and intensity. The fundamentals work well here as San Diego’s pass defense and pass rush continue to be a mess as evidenced by Kansas City’s 27-of-41, 263-yard effort last week. The Chargers have now gone three straight games (112 pass attempts against them) without recording a sack. Pittsburgh’s No. 3-ranked rush defense will hold LaDainian Tomlinson in check and force a one-dimensional team with a porous defense to try and keep up. I don’t believe that happens and expect Pittsburgh to cover this manageable point spread
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH -3.5 O/U 43
While the Steelers have put together some solid defensive statistics and lead the league in yardage allowed, they still are susceptible to a good offense. Mistakes from their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have become all too common and have led to easy scores for the opposition. In a word the Steelers are “sloppy”. San Diego has a solid offensive unit and should be able to exploit the Steelers. They average 27 points per game behind a strong passing attack that has netted 250+ per game. The Steelers will also have plenty of success against a very soft San Diego secondary that ranks dead last in the league in yardage allowed. The Chargers do not get much pressure on the quarterback and because of this have given up a lot of big plays while struggling to create turnovers with just six interceptions in nine games. We see this game as an up-tempo, pass-oriented game, similar to Pittsburgh’s result last week against Indianapolis. The Steelers always play a much more aggressive offensive game at home. So much so that since 2002, they have gone over the total at a clip of 39-18 for 68% winners. We’ll stick with that trend this weekend.
FAIRWAY JAY - PERCEPTION VS REALITY
BYU -4 at Air Force
Perception - Air Force has been a pleasant surprise this year now 8-2 and 5-1 in Mountain West Conference play. The Falcons have won five-straight games and have taken advantage of some weaker opponent’s errors and turnovers. Air Force ranks sixth in the nation with 25 turnovers gained and seventh turnover margin (+12). The Falcons’ triple-option attack can be tough to tackle as they average 275 rushing ypg led by a pair of freshmen in QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark. Jefferson also had his best passing day in last week’s win over Colorado State with 171 yards -- well above the Falcon’s league-worst passing average that obviously relies heavily on the option and running game. Rarely a bad idea to support a team with a strong running game that plays smart, disciplined football, Air Force has been a very positive profile and program again this year, and rewarded their betting backers handsomely with a 7-2 ATS mark. They look like a together team poised for more positive production, until you consider…Reality - The Fly Boys have been fortunate as they took advantage of some favorable early season scheduling and numerous opponents miscues. Their recent five-game winning streak was all against losing teams from the MWC along with their rivalry game at Army in which they were outgained and held to just 174 total yards offense. The Falcons were also very fortunate against New Mexico. After a 10-0 Lobos lead, the momentum turned after an Air Force 96-yard fumble return that led to another victory despite being outgained. Air Force steps way up in class the next two weeks with BYU and TCU to finish its season before a bowl game. TCU will be off a bye and playing with revenge for a fluke loss to the Falcons last year. A look back at the last time Air Force took on a quality opponent shows they were dominated by Utah, as the Utes had a 440-191 total yards advantage while holding Air Force to just 53 yards rushing on 42 carries. BYU and TCU are the MWC top offenses, and TCU features the league’s most dominating defense. A review of many of the box scores’ play-by-play shows Air Force to be a very fortunate team. And while they may have created much of their good fortune with turnovers, smart play and an option-based offense that can be difficult to defend, they will now face superior teams the final two weeks with bigger, faster and stronger athletes that can keep the Falcon’s from flying. Look for the Air Force to be grounded the next two weeks against BYU and TCU.
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
WISCONSIN 41 - Minnesota 13 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 13, and is now minus 14.
Floundering Badgers certainly have turned it all around the past 3 weeks, with their tried &
true overland game providing the impetus. Check a combined 637-142 RY edge the past 2
weeks, & an 800-230 RY edge the past 3 weeks. LW, they held a 308 RY edge over Indy,
with Gilreath an amazing 168 yds on only 8 carries: 21.0 ypr! And their 281-25 edge over
MichiganSt is still stupefying. Thus a team that is clicking on all cylinders, vs a Minny
squad, which has seen its bubble pop, with a 452-151 RY deficit last 2 wks. Lay it!
RATING: WISCONSIN 89
UTEP 50 - Smu 24 - (9:00) -- Line opened at Utep minus 9, and is now minus 10. Quite frankly, the line on
this one seems at least a TD short. The Mustangs enter this contest with a 1-9 record, while
owning, not only the nation's worst defense, but also its worst running game (try a 306-38
RY deficit in last week's home loss to Memphis). Sure, they can fling it (15th passing "O"),
but now QB Mitchell is ailing (shoulder). The Miners still have a shot at a bowl slot, altho
their mission is difficult, thus full focus here. QB Vittatoe is in off a 5-TD game, & note Utep
containing La-Lafayette's 300 Rypg offense, in that one. Miners roll.
RATING: UTEP 89
NEVADA 45 - San Jose State 20 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 14½, and is still minus 14½. We
have ridden the Spartans as hosts, over the past 3 years, with huge success, but not any
more. In off managing a meager 6 FDs &148 total yds, while hosting a LaTech team, which
entered as one of the nation's top "go-against" visiting squads. Now SJSt takes to the road,
where it had a 220-106 RY deficit (9½ pt spread loss), in its last guest shot, at Idaho, no less
(Vandals: #116, #117, #113 in total, scoring, rushing "D"). 'Pack in off 600 yd effort in rout of
Fresno, with a 2,085-401 RY edge in last 6 games. Throw in revenge.
RATING: NEVADA 88
Nebraska 44 - KANSAS STATE 24 - (3:30 -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 6, and is now minus 6½. Fastfalling
'Cats in search of an defense, having allowed 151 pts in their last 3 games. Of
course, those opponents were named Oklahoma, Kansas, & Missouri, but if they are looking
for a respite, the 'Huskers hardly provide it, as they've scored at least 30 pts in 11 of their
last 13 games, with one of their 2 misses, a 28-pt effort vs mighty Oklahoma. A year ago,
Nebraska QB Ganz set school records with 510 PYs & 7 TDs in its 73-31 rout of the Wildcats,
& QBs seem to repeat their performances the following yr. All Huskers.
RATING: NEBRASKA 88
FLORIDA 48 - South Carolina 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Florida minus 23, and is now minus 21. Love
the 2-pt drop in the spot on this one. Sure, Spurrier wants this one above all others, & he
has always been been a superb dog (5-1 ATS as double digit pup). And his 3rd-rated
defense hasn't allowed any of its last 11 opponents to top 24 pts, a streak which stretches
back to last year's meeting, when the Gators dropped 51 on the Gamecocks, a 13-pt road
cover for Florida. Simply put, Florida is nearly unstoppable, with a 243-57 pt edge since its
loss to OleMiss (49-11 ppg). A perfect leader in Tebow, to boot. They have it all.
RATING: FLORIDA 88
JACKSONVILLE 20 - Tennessee 16 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 3, and is still minus 3.
What a match this should be. The Titans, of course, are the only perfect squad left in the
NFL. Not only do they carry a 9-0 SU record, but have tasted defeat just once, in the all
important battle vs the oddsmakers, & that by a mere 1½ pts in their OT win over Green
Bay. They rank 3rd in rushing "O", but have been held below 90 RYs 4 times, so not to be
trusted. The Jags enter off a 7-sack performance, with their formerly vaunted overland gm
finally clicking, & Garrard approaching his '07 level. Division revenge rears its head.
RATING: JACKSONVILLE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Baylor, AirForce, PennSt, NotreDame - NFL: Jets, Bears, Texans, Browns
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): ArizonaSt (-33 to -36½); OhioSt (-7½ to -10); UNLV (-7 to
-9); SoCaro (+23 to +21); Navy (+4½ to +3); NewMexico (+2½ to +1); WestMich (-14 to -15½); SoMiss (Pick
to -1½) - NFL: Oakland (+12 to +10½); NYGiants (-5 to -6½); Houston (+9½ to +8½) - TIME CHANGES:
Alabama/MissSt: now 7:45; Georgia/Auburn: 12:30; Jacksonville/Tennessee: 4:15 - KEY INJURIES: CMich
QB LeFevour (ankle) probable; Indiana QB Lewis (ankle) ??; Indiana QB Chappell (head) probable; Kansas
QB Reesing (leg) probable; Nebraska QB Ganz (leg) probable; OregonSt QB Moevao (shoulder) probable;
Purdue QB Painter (shoulder) ??; SanJoseSt RB Davis (ankle) ??; SMU QB Mitchell (shoulder) ??; SoMiss
RB Fletcher (hamstring) ??; Stanford RB Gerhart (hamstring) probable; Troy QB Hampton (knee) out; Tulane
RB Anderson (shoulder) out; UNLV QB Clayton (knee) out; VaTech QB Taylor (ankle) ??; WakeForest
RB Adams (ankle) ??; WestenKy QB Wolke (back) ?? - NFL: Chicago QB Orton (ankle) ??; Dallas QB
Romo (finger) probable; Denver RB Young (groin) doubtful; Detroit QB Orlovsky (thumb) out; Houston QB
Schaub (knee) out; KansasCity RB Johnson (suspension) probable; NewOrleans RB Bush (knee) ??; Oakland
QB Russell (knee) ??; Pittsburgh RB Parker (shoulder) ??; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (back) probable;
S ( ) ( )
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
That sixth win (and resultant bowl eligibility) has been elusive in
recent weeks for Vanderbilt, but team trends suggest the
Commodores might finally get over the hump this week when facing
SEC East rival Kentucky at Lexington. The Commodores are an
accomplished road underdog, covering 5 of their last 6 and 14 of
their last 17 tries. Vandy is also 1from Nashville. Meanwhile, the Wildcats
have covered just 1 of their last 6 laying points at Commonwealth Stadium,
and just 2 of their last 8 overall at home.
It’s hard to find two MAC teams heading in more opposite
directions than Western Michigan and Toledo, which square off
Saturday afternoon in Kalamazoo at Waldo Stadium. And it’s all
systems go for the host Broncos, who have dropped just one of
their last 7 spread decisions and have won and covered handily
their last 2 against the Rockets. As for Toledo, it doesn’t appear
ready to really for lame duck HC Tom Amstutz, especially on the road,
as the Rockets stand 5-17 v.s the line as a visitor since 2005.
Recent form, coupled with series trends, combine to present a
compelling case for Nevada when the Wolf Pack plays host to
San Jose State Saturday at Mackay Stadium. Prior to a narrow
loss last year in the Bay Area, Nevada had won and covered five
straight in this WAC rivalry, including three straight at home. And
the Wolf Pack has been a formidable favorite in Reno since HC
Chris Ault returned to the sidelines in 2004, covering 14 of 17
chances since. On the other hand, the Spartans have started to
wobble, dropping their last three spread decisions, recording a
very poor -19.00 “AFS” (“Away From Spread”) mark in their
last two games.
Certain team trends are so illuminating that they demand
attention. Such has been UL-Monroe’s recent late-season
pattern of success under HC Charlie Weatherbie, which the
Warhawks look to continue Saturday in SEC country at Oxford
against ole Miss. Please note that during the last five board games
of the past three seasons, fast-closing ULM stands 12-0-1
against the number. And the Warhawks have long been an
accomplished underdog for Weatherbie, recording a 21-9-1 mark
their last 31 as the “short”, qualifying ULM as a featured play in
both the Coach & Pointspread and College Coach as Dog
systems this week. The Rebels, meanwhile, are just 4-13-1 vs.
the line their last 18 as a favorite.4-5 vs. the line its last 19 away
BUFFALO at AKRON (Thursday, November 13)...Buffalo has
covered last 3 meetings, although only LY did Bulls win SU. Turner
Gill 4-0 vs. line away TY and 14-5 vs. spread last 19 as visitor.
Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday, November
13)...Hokies have had series edge, winning and covering last 2
and 4 of last 5 meetings, also 6-1 vs. line last 7 and 8 covers last
10 against Canes. Hokies 17-5 against number as visitor since ‘04.
Tech edge-VT, based on team and series trends.
WYOMING at UNLV (Thursday, November 13)...Wyo has won last
4 in series but failed to cover last two. Cowboys have now won and
covered their last 2 after 0-15-1 previous 16 on board. Rebs 5-15
vs. line last 20 as chalk (2-7 for Mike Sanford since ‘05; 1-2 TY). Tech
edge-Wyo, based on series trends.
CINCINNATI at LOUISVILLE (Friday, November 14)...Road team
has covered 6 of last 7 meetings. Tech edge-Cincy, based on
INDIANA at PENN STATE...Shades has also covered last 4 and 8
of last 9 laying 20 or more. Hoosiers just the opposite TY, dropping
8 of first 9 vs. line. Tech edge-Shades, based on team trends.
PURDUE at IOWA...Iowa has covered 3 of last 4 meetings, although
the loss came LY. Hawkeyes on mini-uptick with 4 covers in last 5,
while Tiller only 3 covers last 11 since late LY, and only 3-6 as dog
since LY. Tech edge-Iowa, based on recent trends.
NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN...NU has covered the last two in
series. Rich R got win at Minnesota but is poor 2-8 vs. line TY and
2-11 against spread last 13 on board at Mich & WVU. Tech edge-
NU, based on recent Michigan woes.
MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN...Paul Bunyan Axe! Slab of Bacon!
Gophers haven’t won in series since ‘03 and have dropped 5 of last
6 vs. number against Badgers, the lone cover coming last year. Tech
edge-Wisconsin, based on series trends.
WAKE FOREST at NC STATE...Wake has had the edge in series,
4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line last 5. But NCS has covered 5 of last 6 TY.
Tech edge-slight to Wake, based on series trends.
DUKE at CLEMSON...Home team had covered 8 straight meetings
prior to LY’s 47-10 Duke loss at Durham. Blue Devils, however, have
covered 2 of 3 away TY and now 11-5 vs. spread last 16 as visitor
(all as dog). Clemson just 1-6 vs. number in ‘08 (Dabo 1-1), and no
covers last 4 on board at Death Valley. Tech edge-Duke, based
on recent trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND...Ralph had covered 7 straight
in series prior to close 16-13 loss LY. Tech edge-Maryland, based
on extended series trends.
NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at Baltimore)...Mids have covered 5 of
last 7 meetings, and Navy 29-10 vs. line last 39 away from Annapolis!
Tech edge-Navy, based on series and team trends.
UCONN at SYRACUSE...Home team has won and covered the last
4 meetings, but Orange only 3-8 vs. line last 11 as host. UConn only
1-3 as chalk TY after 21-8-1 mark in role previous 6 seasons. Tech
edge-UConn, based on extended trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Sly Croom has won the last
two years vs. his alma mater. Bulldogs have covered their last 4 visits
to Tuscaloosa, though MSU just 1-3 vs. line away TY after 8-2-1 vs.
spread as visitor the past 2 years. Tide only 9-20 laying points since
‘05 (5-9 under Nick). Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team
and series trends.
VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY...UK has now won and covered last
4 in series. Cats, however, just 2-6 vs. line last 8 at Lexington. Dores
have covered 5 of their last 6 as road dog and are 14-3 last 17 in role.
Tech edge-Vandy, based on team trends.
TEXAS A&M at BAYLOR...Ags 9-4 vs. line last 13 as visitor. Tech
edge-slight to A&M, based on extended visitor mark.
NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE...CSU very formful TY, 4-0
vs. line at home, 0-5 vs. line away from home! Tech edge-CSU,
based on recent trends.
TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Rockets now 5-17 vs. line as
visitor since ‘05. WMU has won and covered last 2 meetings and is
5-1-1 vs. line last 6 TY (including covers the last 2 at Waldo). Tech
edge-WMU, based on team and series trends.
UTAH STATE at LOUISIANA TECH...LT 3-0 vs. line at home TY.
Bulldogs have also won and covered last 3 vs. Utags. USU no covers
last 4 on road TY. Tech edge-LT, based on team and series
EAST CAROLINA at SOUTHERN MISS...USM has covered 6 of last
7 meetings. Skip has cooled off since early in season, just 1 cover
in last 7. Skip has also failed to cover last 4 on road after 16-5 spread
mark previous 21 away. Tech edge-slight to USM, based on
UAB at TULANE...UAB only 1-4 vs. line away TY and 2-6 last 8 as
visitor. Tulane, however, no covers last 3 as chalk TY and 0-4 as
favorite under Bob Toledo. Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on
Tulane chalk woes.
TEXAS at KANSAS...Mack no covers last 3 TY but is still 8-3 last
11 on board. Tech edge-slight to Mack, based on team trends.
MISSOURI at IOWA STATE...Note Cyclones have covered last 3
in series, all as dog. Tech edge-slight to ISU, based on series
CALIFORNIA at OREGON STATE...Road-oriented series, with
visitor winning and covering last 5 meetings! OSU 6-1 vs. line last 7
TY and now 9-3 vs. line last 12 at Corvallis. Tech edge-slight to
OSU, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at OREGON...Cats have ben tough on Ducks, winning
last two by double-digits (as DD dog!) and covers last 3 in series.
Stoops 2-0 as dog TY, now 18-7-1 last 26 as short. Tech edge-
Arizona, based on team and series trends.
UCLA at WASHINGTON...Bruins bad as road chalk the past few
years, 3-9 last 12 in role. UCLA no covers last 8 as Pac-10 road chalk.
Ty no covers last 7 in ‘08, so something has to give. Tech edge-
UW, based on UCLA’s road chalk woes.
GEORGIA at AUBURN...Tuberville no covers last 8 TY. Dawgs
have won and covered big the last 2 years by 37-15 and 45-20
scores. Tech edge-Georgia, based on recent Auburn woes.
BYU at AIR FORCE...BYU no covers last 6 TY. Calhoun 16-5 vs.
line with Falcs (but 0-1 vs. BYU). Tech edge-slight to BYU, based
on series trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA...Meyer has won and covered
last 5 since Ole Miss loss and is now 9-2 last 11 vs. line at Gainesville.
Spurrier 12-4-1 vs. line as visitor since coming to Columbia (2-1 TY),
9-2-1 as road dog, 5-1 as DD dog. Tech edge-slight to SC, based
on series and extended team trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at NEVADA...Spartans no covers last 3 TY and
have failed to win or cover last 3 at Reno. Wolf Pack had won and
covered 5 straight in series prior to LY’s bitter 27-24 season-ending
loss at Spartan Stadium. Chris Ault still 14-3 as Mackay Stadium chalk
since returning to Nevada sidelines in ‘04. Tech edge-Nevada,
based on team and extended series trends.
UCF at MARSHALL...UCF has dominated, wins last 3 and covers
last 4 against Herd. Tech edge-UCF, based on series trends.
BOISE STATE at IDAHO...Home team has actually covered last 5
in series, which means Vandals have covered last 2 hosting Boise!
But Broncos are perfect 4-0 SU and vs. line away TY. Tech edge-
Boise, based on team trends.
TULSA at HOUSTON...Tulsa routed UH 56-7 LY, worse than score
indicates, as Todd Graham likely reminded Golden Hurricane that it
lost 100-6 to Cougs in 1968. Tech edge-slight to Tulsa, based
on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at FRESNO STATE...Fresno no covers last
8 TY, now 3-13 last 16 at Dog House and 3-19 last 22 as chalk! NMSU
just 6-13 as road dog for Hal Mumme since ‘05. Tech edge-slight
to NMSU, based on recent Fresno woes.
SOUTHERN CAL at STANFORD...Revenge for Pete after 24-23
loss in shocker LY at Coliseum! Tree has actually covered 3 of last
4 and 6 of last 9 in series. Harbaugh has won and covered 5 straight
as host as well. Pete just 5-10 vs. number last 15 as Pac-10 visitor.
Tech edge-Tree, based on team and series trends.
NEBRASKA at KANSAS STATE...Wildcats no covers last 3 in
Manhattan. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on recent trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at COLORADO...Buffs no covers last 7 TY.
Gundy has covered 10 straight laying more than 10. CU 5-15-1 as
dog for Hawkins since ‘06. Tech edge-OSU, based on recent
RUTGERS at SOUTH FLORIDA...Rutgers making nice rally, with
covers last 5 TY. Bulls a disappointing 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-7 last 9 on
board. Tech edge-slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at FLORIDA STATE...Note that road team has
won and covered last 3 years in series. Eagles 9-2 as road dog since
‘03. Tech edge-BC, based on team and series road trends.
OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS...Buckeyes in payback mode after LY’s
28-21 loss. Tressel has also covered last 4 chances in rare revenge
role. OSU, however, has failed to cover the last 2 or 6 of last 7 vs.
Illini. Buckeyes 12-2 vs. line last 14 on Big Ten road. Tech edge-
OSU, based on team trends.
UTAH at SAN DIEGO STATE...Utah has won and covered handily
last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series. Utes have ALSO covered their last
3 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-Utah, based on team and series
SMU at UTEP...UTEP now 1-9 last 10 as Sun Bowl chalk, 1-14 last
15 as favorite overall! Tech edge-SMU, based on UTEP chalk
WASHINGTON STATE at ARIZONA STATE... Cougs 1-8 vs. line
TY, not sure how much more we can say about Wazzu. Tech edge-
ASU, based on Wazzu woes.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Blue Raiders 5-2
as road chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to MTSU, based on
recent WKU woes.
UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...FAU has covered last
3 meetings but ULL 7-1 vs. line last 8 TY. Tech edge-ULL, based
on recent trends.
UL-MONROE at OLE MISS...Weatherbie has covered his last 4 as
dog and now 21-9-1 last 31 as short. Warhawks also 3-0-1 vs. line
last 4 vs. SEC opposition, and Monroe unbeaten vs. line in last 5 board
games of season since ‘06 (13-0-1 vs. line in those!). Rebs just 4-
13-1 last 18 as favorite. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.
TROY at LSU (Hurricane makeup game)...LSU just 4-13-2 last 19
on board overall, 1-11 last 12 laying 7 or more. Troy 8-4 as dog since
‘06. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Miami-Ohio (11/11),
VIRGINIA TECH over Miami-Fla. (11/13), BYU over Air Force@,
CINCINNATI over Louisville, EAST CAROLINA over Southern Miss,
KANSAS over Texas, UL-MONROE over Ole Miss@, MISSOURI over
Iowa State@, OHIO STATE over Illinois@, OREGON over Arizona@,
SOUTH FLORIDA over Rutgers.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-VIRGINIA TECH over Miami-
Fla. (11/13), ARIZONA over Oregon@, AUBURN over Georgia,
ILLINOIS over Ohio State@, UL-MONROE over Ole Miss@, NEW
EMXICO* over Colorado State, NC STATE* over Wake Forest.
RIVALRY DOGS-MINNESOTA over Wisconsin.
POWER UNDERDOGS-AIR FORCE over Byu@, AUBURN over
Georgia, BOSTON COLLEGE over Florida State, CAL over Oregon
State, ILLINOIS over Ohio State@, KANSAS over Texas, NAVY over
Notre Dame, SOUTH CAROLINA over Florida.
PAINFUL MEMORY-AUBURN over Georgia, CAL over Oregon
State, OHIO STATE over Illinois@.
POWER REVENGE-OHIO STATE over Illinois@.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-OLE MISS over UL-Monroe@.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-No plays this week
Re: Newsletters 11/12 - 11/18
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
History has shown us that many NFL "totals" trends are apt to
continue for a good while. And such might be the case with the
recent developments involving Minnesota, especially on the
road, where the Vikings will be again this Sunday at Tampa Bay.
Minnesota has been "over" its first four on the road this year and
"over" 5 of its last 6 overall. And the Bucs have been going "over"
more often than not lately, too, "over" 10 of their last 16 regularseason
games dating to midway in the '07 campaign.
The season has started to go pear-shaped for the Buffalo Bills,
who face a tough challenge Monday night at Orchard Park when
Cleveland pays a visit. The Bills are definitely sliding, with no
wins or covers in their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 games.
Meanwhile, the Browns, though lately perfecting the art of
blowing big leads at home, have nonetheless proven a combative
performer on the road, covering their last three as a visitor, and 7
of their last 10 away.
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, November 13)...Note that
the road team has covered the last 6 regular-season meetings
between these two. Belichick also “under” 8-2-1 last 11 on board.
Tech edge-slight to Jets and “under”, based on series and
DENVER at ATLANTA...Falcons 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY.
Falcs also “over” 3-1 at Georgia Dome TY and “over” 9-3 at home
since ‘07. Shan just 4-12 last 16 against number on road. Broncos
also “over” 10-3-1 last 14 on road. Tech edge-“Over” and Falcons,
based on “totals” and team trends.
OAKLAND at MIAMI...Raiders 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, now 29-60-1
overall vs. spread since SB XXXVII. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on
BALTIMORE at NY GIANTS...Ravens “over” 10-4-1 their last 15 as
visitor. Giants also “over” last 3 as host and “over” 9-3 at Meadowlands
since LY. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS...Texans “over” 8-1 TY, “over” 21-8-
1 last 30. Last 7 in this series “over” as well. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE...Dog has covered the last 4
meetings. Titans now 8-1 vs. line TY, however. Note that Jags,
despite TY’s disappointments, still 2-0 as dog in ‘08, and 15-6-1 last
22 as short overall. Tech edge-slight to Jags, based on team
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Bears 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 at Lambeau.
Note Bears “over” 29-16-1 last 46 on board. Pack “over” 10-4 last 14
at Lambeau. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bears, based on
“totals” and series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI...Andy Reid 4-1 vs. line last 5 as
road chalk. Marvin Lewis 10-20-1 vs. number last 31 at Paul Brown
Stadium. Tech edge-Eagles, based on team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY...Saints yet to be road chalk TY
but were 4-1 vs. line in role the past two seasons. Saints also “over”
10-4 last 14 away from home. Chiefs also “over” 8-4 last 12 at
Arrowhead. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.
DETROIT at CAROLINA...Panthers 3-0-2 vs. line as host TY (the
same as chalk mark TY), now 6-0-2 against number last 8 at
Charlotte! Carolina also “under” 9-3-1 last 13 as host, but Lions “over”
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-Panthers, based on recent home
MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Bucs no covers last 3 TY but still 9-
4 vs. line at Raymond James Stadium since LY (3-1 TY). Vikes “over”
first 4 on road TY. Tech edge-"Over' and slight to Bucs, based on
team and “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers had covered 6 straight in
series before failing to do so in last ‘07 meeting. Last 4 and 7 of last
9 meetings “under” as well. Tech edge-slight to “under” and 49ers,
based on “totals” and series trends.
ARIZONA at SEATTLE...“Overs” 7-1 last 8 in series. Seattle “over”
8-4 last 11 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH...Bolts 7-2-1 as dog since ‘05, but
Norv 1-4 vs. line away from home TY. Bolts “over” 16-7 last 23 away,
Steel “over” 44-15-1 last 60 at Heinz Field! Tech edge-“Over” and
Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends
DALLAS at WASHINGTON... Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY and
just 1-3 last 4 as dog (0-1 TY). Cowboys have also lost last 2 and
failed to cover last 4 and 6 of last 7 against Skins. Skins “under” last
3 at home TY and “under” 5-2-1 for Zorn in ‘08. Tech edge-
Redskins and slight to “under”, based on team, series, and
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (Monday, November 17)...Romeo has
covered his last 3 as visitor TY. Bills no covers 4 of last 5 TY. Tech
edge-Browns, based on recent trends
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-DENVER over Atlanta, GREEN BAY*
over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee.
FAMILIARITY-JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee, GREEN BAY#
over Chicago, WASHINGTON# over Dallas.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13).
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13), NY
GIANTS over Baltimore.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
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