SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Las Vegas Insider-NFL (7-1 or 87.5 percent ATS this year!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. These two longtime division rivals were part of the NFL's Week 1 MNF doubleheader. That game was Aaron Rodgers' NFL debut as a starter and he "rose to the occasion." The Packers held off the Vikings 24-19 in that game, as Rodgers completed 18-of-22 passes for 178 yards with a passing and rushing TD, earning a QB rating of 115.5! I had the Packers in that game but I well-remember that the Vikings dominated the second half, outgaining Green Bay 255-94 in yards and 16-4 in FDs. What should also be noted regarding that contest was that Jackson was still Minnesota's QB at that time. However, after the team's Week 2 loss, Brad Childress made the switch to Gus Frerotte and the Vikings have won four off their last six games. At 4-4, Minnesota is tied with Green Bay in the NFC North, just one game behind the 5-3 Bears. Frerotte won't remind anyone of Johnny Unitas but he's topped 200 yards passing in five of his six games (averages 244.7 YPG through the air, compared to 154 by Jackson!). He failed to reach 200 yards in a game for the first time last week but he also passed for three TDs in Minnesota's 28-21 win over the Texans, a trade-off I'm sure the Vikes would accept this week as well. Berrian, the team's big off-season acquisition at WR from Chicago, did nothing with Jackson at QB (three catches for 38 yards in two games) but has 27 receptions in six games with Frerotte, averaging 21.6 YPC and has now caught a TD pass in four straight games. While Frerotte has made a big difference, the key to Minnesota's offense is Adrian Peterson. AP is second in the NFL in rushing (823 YR / 4.7 YPC) and has but together three straight 100-yard games (123.7 YPG / 5.3 YPC). He can't wait to get at the Green Bay rush 'D,' as it allows 146.4 YPG on 4.9 YPC. Despite season-long injury woes, the Green Bay pass 'D' has played well, ranking 5th in YPG (183.9) and holding opposing QBs to a low 51.3 percent completions. Green Bay has allowed just nine TD passes and has 13 INTs but doesn't get mush pressure on the QB (just 14 sacks). Rodgers played very well in that Week 1 game and his solid season (63.7 percent / 247.8 YPG / 13-5 ratio / 95.3 rating) has earned him a HUGE contract extension. However, you'll note that he's only averaging three more YPG in the air than Frerotte, and has way better receivers in Jennings and Driver. So either Rodgers is overrated, or Frerotte ain't so bad! Rodgers will be helped by the fact that Ryan Grant is back running well (91.0 YPG over his last four) but the Minnesota rush 'D' is allowing 69.6 YPG (3.0 YPC), the second-best mark in the league. DE Jared Allen is expected to miss again this week but without him last week, the Vikes had five sacks (have 21 on the year). With Peterson is top-form, the Vikings typically control the line of scrimmage with him and their great DL (LW outrushed the Texans, 177-69) and Rodgers will be getting his first tatse of the loud and very unique setting of the Metrodome (Favre sure never liked it nor did well there!). The Vikes were favored to win the North this year and after a poor start, a win here puts them right in the middle of the 'fight.' Childress is 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) vs McCarthy and is long overdue for a win. He gets it here! Las Vegas Insider on the Min Vikings.
Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL Total (75 percent FB run!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on NO/Atl Over at 1:00 ET. The Falcons have put the Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino 'nightmare' of last year behind them with rookie QB Matt Ryan and rookie head coach Mike Smith. Ryan has a solid QB rating of 85.4 and has bonded with WR Roddy White (48 catches / 15.3 YPC), while RB Turner has run for almost 100 YPG (794 yards in eight games). Smith has done a great job on the sidelines, leading a team which was 4-12 last year to a 5-3 mark at the mid-point of the '08 season, including a 3-0 SU and ATS record here in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have battled through serious injuries to their RBs and WRs plus overcome a shaky defense to go 4-4 so far. QB Drew Brees could be the league's first-half MVP, completing 69.1 percent for an average of 320.4 YPG (No. 1 in the NFL) with 15 TDs (seven INTs) and a QB rating of 101.6 (ranks 3rd). The Saints have an excellent recent history against the Falcons, going 7-3 SU and ATS the last five years. They are returning from London (where they beat the Chargers 37-32) and are off a bye week. At 4-4, the Saints trail the 5-3 Falcons plus both 6-2 teams (Bucs and Panthers) in the NFC South, so a loss here would be devastating. As for the Falcons, one has to wonder just how good this team is and can it keep up its fine play? However, a few things are clear. The Saints finished last year playing five consecutive 'overs,' with each game averaging 54.4 PPG. Through the first eight games of this year, the Saints are 5-2-1 to the 'over,' and have scored 24 points or more in seven of their eight games. They were held to seven points at Carolina, averaging 29.9 PPG in their other seven. The Atlanta secondary is not equipped to handle Brees, especially now that both TE and shockey and WR Colstons are ready to contribute on a regular basis. Bress has been brilliant despite their injuries, with WRs Moore and Henderson plus TE Miller doing surprisingly well. With Bush still sidelined and McAllister hardly playing like "the Duce of old," the Saints can win only way, by scoring. Their defense cannot be counted on to stop anyone, especially away from home. The Saints have played three road games this year plus the game in London, allowing 29, 34 30 and 32 points (31.3 PPG). The Falcons like to use the run (with Turner) to set up the pass, so as not to put rookie Matt Ryan in the position of playing from behind. It's worked well so far, as Atlanta has outscored its opponents 68-14 this year in the first quarter. Remember, the Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS at home while averaging 31.3 PPG, the same total the Saints' D has allowed in four away games. This total is high but it's "not high enough!" Going back to last year's five final games, the Saints are 10-2-1 to the 'over' their last 13 games. Weekend Wipeout Winner NO/Atl Over.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
500♦ Miami Dolphins
Playing a very bad Seattle team who is being asked make the longest road trip in the league I like Miami to roll at home today. I mean given how improved the Dolphins are this year I just don’t see a 2-6 Seattle team keeping thing close on South Beach. Not when Seattle will be traveling three time zones to play a early Sunday game as no Pacific time zone team has traveled to the east coast and won this season losing all 12 games played while burning money along the way going 2-9-1 ATS. Even worst for Seattle they will be making their second trip to Florida in just four weeks and doing so still without their starting quarterback and a key wide receiver things are stacked against the Seahawks today. Meanwhile, for Miami they are full of confidence having won their last two games behind a now dangerous offense and nasty defense. Easy call… Take the Dolphins minus the points as they blowout the Seahawks.
100♦ Kansas City Chiefs
All Kansas City plus the road points here. Yep, even though the Chiefs suck there is no reason why San Diego is laying this big of a spread today. Not when the Chargers have struggled all season long on both sides of the ball and more struggles expected today due to their London hangover. Meanwhile, going for the Chiefs is the fact that road teams of 9’ or more are an amazing 9-2 ATS this season as Kansas City has gone 4-1 ATS this season alone when grabbing 9’ or more. So backing a Kansas City team that is showing offensive life in their last two games by scoring 51 total points I look for the Chiefs to keep things closer then expected as they cover for the third straight week. Take Kansas City plus the points!