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Friday Night Football

Friday Night Football

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Oddsmakers currently have the Wolf Pack listed as 1-point favorites versus the Bulldogs, while the game's total is sitting at 71.

Hawaii put up 24 points in the second half in Week 9 to get past Nevada by a final score of 38-31.

The Wolf Pack had been pegged as 3-point favorites in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (60.5).

Tom Brandstater threw for four touchdowns as Fresno State lost 38-35 to Louisiana State in Week 10.

Fresno State failed to cover the 5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 57.

Team records:
Nevada: 4-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Fresno State: 5-3 SU, 1-7 ATS

Nevada most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 6-4

Fresno State most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nevada's last 7 games when playing Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 6 games
Nevada is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Nevada is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Fresno State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Nevada
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Fresno State's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nevada

Next up:
Nevada home to San Jose State, Saturday, November 15
Fresno State home to New Mexico State, Saturday, November 15

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Re: Friday Night Football

NEVADA (4 - 4) at FRESNO ST (5 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

Nevada at Fresno State
Nevada: 11-1 ATS off an Over
Fresno State: 0-6 ATS as favorite

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 6 games
Nevada is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Nevada
Fresno State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Nevada

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What bettors need to know: Nevada at Fresno State

Line moves

There was some significant line movement on this one. Fresno opened as a 2-point favorite, then went up to 2.5, then dropped to 1.5 and then went back to 2 points.  Nevada money then drove the line down to a pick ‘em and eventually pushed the Wolf Pack to a 1.5-point favorite.

The over/under has been less volatile, opening at 71 and fluctuating between 71.5 and the current number of 70.5.

Head to head

Nevada has lost eight of the last nine to Fresno State. Last year they lost outright 49-41 as a 3.5-point favorite.

The teams are averaging 70 points per game over their last four.

The stakes

After coming into the year with BCS expectations, Fresno State now finds itself fighting for bowl eligibility. With four games left the Bulldogs need at least two wins. They’ll have to earn it with Boise State and San Jose State left on the schedule along with Nevada.

The Wolf Pack are in a similar situation, needing two or three wins out of four with no easy games ahead.

Against the spread

The fact that Fresno State and Nevada have been among the most disappointing teams in the WAC, if not the entire nation, is reflected in their spread records.

Nevada is a very mediocre 3-4 ATS while Fresno is a disastrous 1-8 ATS. After covering in the season opener at Rutgers, the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight in a row. They are on a six-game run of failing to cover as a favorite with two outright losses that includes a home defeat to Hawaii as a 21-point favorite.

In these last six games, Fresno has gone over the total five times with the sixth being a push.

Anyone, anytime, any place?

Fresno State coach Pat Hill has a reputation for playing tough BCS-level competition in an effort to build a national program. In 2008, though, it’s Nevada that has played more big time teams.

While the Bulldogs’ non-conference slate consisted of Rutgers, Wisconsin, Toledo and UCLA, Nevada has gone up against the likes of Texas Tech (35-19 loss) and Missouri (69-17 loss).

Frequent flyers

Hill’s squad may not have come up against any elite competition this year, but they have lived up to their reputation of traveling far and wide.

The Bulldogs will travel a total of 17,678 miles before the season is through- most of any mainland American team and second only to Hawaii.

Wolf Pack can run

Nevada enters ranked sixth in the nation in total offense, averaging 514.6 yards and 37.9 points per game. While they are plenty balanced, their bread and butter is the ground game (305 rushing yards per game).

The unit is led by sophomore QB Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is second in the league in rushing, fourth in passing and third in passing efficiency. The only WAC player with more rushing yards is Kaepernick’s teammate RB Vai Taua (112 per game).

Kaepernick and Taua are also tied for the league lead in TDs with 11.

Schizoid defense

Nevada presents an interesting conundrum on defense. While they lead the WAC in rushing D, allowing only 69.5 yards per game and 2.3 per carry, they are one of the worst teams in the nation against the pass, allowing 327.5 aerial yards per game.

Struggling bulldogs

If you believe that running the ball on offense and stopping the run on defense are the keys to winning football games, then Fresno is not your team. The Bulldogs have struggled mightily in each of these areas.

Last week’s loss at Louisiana Tech is a prime example. Fresno State gave up 280 yards on the ground and ran for just 63 yards on 26 carries.

Hill’s squad has struggled on special teams with kick coverage as well, allowing an 81 yard return for a touchdown last week.

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Nevada (4-4, 3-4 ATS) at Fresno State (5-3, 1-7 ATS)

Fresno State looks to continue its recent domination of Nevada when these two Western Athletic Conference rivals clash at Bulldog Stadium.

Fresno State has won eight of the last nine meetings with the Wolf Pack, going  4-2-1 ATS in the last seven. Last year, the Bulldogs went to Reno and earned a 49-41 win as three-point road ‘dogs, this after scoring a 28-19 home victory in 2006, failing to cash as 13-point favorites. The straight-up winner is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these schools.

Nevada had last weekend off after traveling to Hawaii for an Oct. 25 game that saw the Wolf Pack fall 38-31 as 3½-point road favorites. Despite that setback, Nevada’s offense has been clicking all season, coming in ranked sixth in the country in total offense (513.8 yards per game) and second in rushing (304.8 ypg). QB Colin Kaepernick leads the attack having thrown for 1,521 yards and 12 TDs while also running for 740 yards and 12 TDs.

The Bulldogs fell at Louisiana Tech on Saturday 38-35 as a 4½-point road chalk, the seventh straight non-cover for Fresno, whose last spread-cover came in a season-opening 24-7 upset at Rutgers. Pat Hill’s squad puts up 33 points and 420.4 total yards per game, with QB Tom Brandstater enjoying a solid campaign, throwing for 1,791 yards, 15 TDs and six INTs. However, thee Bulldogs’ problem has come on defense where they allow 29.4 points a game and 405.8 yards, including 208.1 ypg on the ground.

The Wolf Pack are on ATS slides of 2-6 on the road and 1-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they sport pointspread runs of 12-3 following a non-cover and 11-4 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been a disaster for bettors, currently on ATS slides of 9-26 overall, 3-13 at home, 5-17 in WAC games, 3-7 in November, 0-5 in Friday games and 7-21 following a non-cover.

Nevada has topped the total in its last eight road games against teams with a winning home mark, but otherwise the Wolf Pack are on under runs of 5-2 in conference games and 6-1 in November contests. For Fresno State, the over is on streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-0-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.   


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