THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Brandon Lang

15 Dime TCU

5 Dime Teaser Broncos and Over

FREE Maryland/Va Tech Under

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Iron Horse

10* Thursday GOY

TCU

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Youngstown Connection

TCU

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Frank Patron

7500 Unit Lock

TCU Horned Frogs -1.5

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Cleveland (-3) over Denver (NFL Power Play)

Denver
• 1-7 ATS in all games this season
• 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons
• 0-12 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 3-13 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest


10* Take TCU (-2) over Utah (NCAA Power Play)

TCU
• 9-0 ATS coming off two or more conference wins the last 3 seasons
• 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season
• 14-3 ATS when playing in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 years


10* Take Maryland (+3) over Virginia Tech (NCAA Power Play)

Virginia Tech
• 5-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
• 0-2 ATS coming off a two game road trip
• 0-4 SU & ATS coming off a bye week

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Drew Gordon..
Today's Games...
1. 100,000♦ Virginia Tech
2. 50,000♦ Browns

1. Virginia Tech- First things first, let's begin with the situational angles in this contest. I don't particularly like the way the Terrapins are coming into this game, off back-to-back home wins, including a piss-poor effort against NC State in their last one. They've been known to disappear completely on the road (31-0 loss at Virginia comes to mind), and now face a Virginia Tech team in desperate need of a win.

Speaking of situational angles, its hard to argue against the Hokies, who've lost two straight tough ACC games on the road, and now return home in a must-win redemption game. I just don't see Va. Tech losing a 3rd straight game, especially at home, where they are dominant defensively, allowing just 12 ppg on 292 yards of total offense this season! Look for the Hokies to come into this game highly focused and extremely motivated.

Next, we have to discuss injuries, because the public is completely overreacting to the Hokies QB situation. First of all, latest reports are Glennon is probable, which is music to my ears, because Tyrod Taylor isn't really a quarterback, and Glennon will keep the Terrapins defense honest with his arm. But on the chance that Glennon is out, QB Cory Holt is an adequate backup. Yes, he's only thrown a few passes in his college career, but he's a 5th year senior. In other words, he's intimately familiar with the system, and he proved his worth (somewhat) in limited action in very hostile territory last week at Florida State. Also, as a side note, Maryland RB Scott is listed as probable, so expect he'll play.

Finally, the one thing Va. Tech does really well at home besides defense, is run the football, averaging 203 rushing yards per game in Blacksburg. What people don't realize is this plays right into the weakness of this Terrapins stop-unit, which is allowing 153 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry on the road this season! With Glennon or Holt leading the huddle, and a solid run game mowing down a vulnerable Terrapins rush defense, look for the Hokies offense to perform just fine tonight at home.

Bottom line, this is a game the Hokies absolutely must win, and don't get too caught up in the QB situation, as they have an adequate backup and a solid run game to compliment him (a QB's best friend). In the end, its the Hokies nasty defense, and desperation to win that earn them the W in this one, as Maryland runs into a wall tonight at Blacksburg.

Take Virginia Tech over Maryland as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Browns- Let's make one thing clear, Brady Quinn has been groomed for this since day 1. He's being put in the absolute best position to win, with a talented offense, at home, against an extremely vulnerable Broncos defense. And enough about the short-week, as Quinn has had a YEAR to prep for this, and you best believe he'll be ready.

But for all the talk about Quinn, the true gamechanger in this contest will be RB Jamal Lewis, who has had his best games at home this season (except against the Ravens, which is understandable). Denver defense has been atrocious on the road, allowing a whopping 206 rushing yards per game this season, and football 101 teaches us, a young QBs best friend is a solid run game, and Quinn WILL have that tonight.

Not only that, but on the flip side, coach Crennel has this Browns defense playing well, allowing 20 ppg on 348 total yards this season. That's a big improvement from last season's debacle, and with the Broncos offense struggling, averaging just 13 ppg on 305 total yards last 3 games, the Browns stop-unit is poised for another strong effort tonight at home.

Finally, from a trend standpoint, there's no question you have to like the Browns, who are a sterling 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Broncos on the other hand, are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, including ugly SUATS losses at Kanas City and at New England in their last two roadies!

Bottom line, Quinn won't be great, but he'll do just enough to compliment a strong run game led by Jamal Lewis against a porous Broncos defense. Denver was able to rely on its high-powered offense in the early going, but lately, its been anything but high-powered. In the end, look for the Browns to rally behind their new leader, while the Broncos flounder once again on the road!

Take the Browns over the Broncos in this Thursday night NFL match up.

samors
useravatar
Offline
103 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Steve Budin

25 Dime

TCU

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Jake Timlin


500* Cleveland Browns

In what I see as being a No Brainer take the Browns minus the points as they burry the Broncos tonight. Yes, even with the Browns switching to Brady Quinn given how bad the Broncos are right now I am more then happy to lay the points in Cleveland. You see for Denver, loser of 4 of their last 5 games, their lack of defense is killing them as the Broncos stop unit ranks near the bottom of every defensive category with their offense stuck in a black hole scoring less then 20 points in their last 5 games. No so for Cleveland as their defense has stepped up their game by allowing 17 or less points in 4 of their last 5 games while their offense has topped 20 point in 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the opposite trend numbers tell the whole story as Cleveland has been a huge money maker cashing in 17 of their last 24 games, including 9 of their last 10 games at home while Denver is an awful 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. So backing the hotter of the two teams tonight is say lay the points on the Browns as they earn an impressive win against a down and out Denver team.
All Cleveland!


100* Houston Rockets

Take the Rockets minus the points as they rebound from their only loss on Tuesday win with a blowout tonight. After all given that Houston is clearly the better team tonight and one that was able to win the last 5 series meetings while covering the last 3 meetings Houston will be just fine on the road tonight. Meanwhile, for the 1-3 Trailblazers playing on back to back nights is going to be a killer. So backing the better team tonight I say lay the road points as Houston rebounds with an easy win.
All Houston!

Rake
useravatar
Offline
44 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

LVTR

Maryland +3

Utah +2

Orlando -5

Free Play Orlando-Phily Under

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Seabass:

50 TCU
50 VCU
30 Den/Cle over
100 (Steam) TCU/Utah under...message says buy it to 43 when line was 42.5 this morning; line has dropped some places already.

samors
useravatar
Offline
103 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on TCU - AiS shows an 82% probability that TCU will win this game by 3 or more points. The biggest factor in this game will be the running games. Specifically, the lack of one for Utah and very strong one for TCU. TCU is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992. TCU will look to pound the running game between the tackles against a under sized LB corp. RB Joseph Turner is a powerful 226-pounder who leads the team in rushing and can churn out tough yards between the tackles. Then you add the option package that QB Dalton executes very well with correct and decisive reads. Utah's DT Newman weighs just 265 pounds and NT Shelby 245. These two will have to face a center in Schleueter who weighs 295, RG Montgomery who weighs 310 and LG Doley who checks in at 310. Moreover, Utah has two quick and athletic defensive ends, but they are nearly completely taken out of the game once the middle of the field is exposed by the TCU running attack. Keep track of running and passing plays for TCU. If they attain a better than 2 to 1 margin favoring run then they will be dominating the LOS and also TOp and most importantly the scoreboard. TCU is in a series of strong roles and I will not a few of them. TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.

Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER VA Tech/Maryland - AiS shows a 79% probability that 43 or more points will be scored in this game. Maryland in a series of strong roles under HC Friedgen noting they are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a 2 game home stand. Maryland is ranked 23rd entering this road tilt at V-tech. Maryland will be defending their top ranked position in the ACC Atlantic division. Both teams are coming off BYE weeks and that no doubt helps Maryland more than V-tech. ACC leading and 26th best nationally, Da'Rel Scott is on the mend after injuring his shoulder September 13th against California. he has obviously played injured all along and has been a strong leader and inspiration to this team. Certain to hear announcers proclaiming that as well tonight. V-tech is in worse shape though having both QB banged up significantly. Virginia Tech lost starter Tyrod Taylor and backup Sean Glennon in a 30-20 loss to then-No. 24 Florida State on Oct. 25, and it’s uncertain if either one will be able to play this week. This play is based on both of them being available. Take the OVER and consider an optional 2* Parlay with Maryland and the OVER. Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Maryland - AiS shows a 72% probability that Maryland will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 86% probability that Maryland will score 28 or more points. Note that this augments the TOTAL play and that Maryland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Va Tech is just 9-34 ATS (-28.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992

ALSO

Ai Simulator 5* graded play Maryland

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Cajun-Sports Executive- CFB
Thursday 8:00 PM EST - CBS-C
5 STAR SELECTION
UTAH +2 1/2 over TCU


Mountain West Conference supremacy is on the line Thursday night, as the 10th-ranked Utes host the 11th-ranked Horned Frogs in Salt Lake City.

TCU has just a single loss during 2008, a 35-10 setback at Oklahoma which was the top-ranked program in the nation at the time. Last weekend, TCU surrendered 14 points to UNLV in Las Vegas, matching the most points given up by the Frogs this year, but it made little difference as the visitors blew apart the Rebels in a 30-point decision.

As for Utah, they've managed to run the table thus far, including victories over BCS teams Michigan and Oregon State. The team's most challenging outing since slipping past the Beavers back in the first week of October, Utah managed to hold on versus New Mexico in Albuquerque last Saturday in a 13-10 final.

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton is the one that makes this offense run smoothly, converting better than 59 percent of his pass attempts for nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. The TCU rush defense is first in the country with a mere 39 ypg allowed. Add to that a pass defense that has surrendered just 175.6 ypg and the unit as a whole trails only USC in total defense.

The Utes will counter with QB Brian Johnson, who is averaging just over 200 ypg passing and has 14 touchdowns to show for his efforts, helping Utah to post 36 ppg. The defense is eighth in the nation with just 89.6 ypg allowed on the ground and is seventh in total defense, so it’s right behind the Horned Frogs.

While many are picking the Horned Frogs here, our Power Ratings indicate that the Utes are getting great line value here, as they should be favored by a TD. TCU is getting a lot of respect for their recent play, especially knocking BYU from the unbeaten ranks a few weeks ago. Before and after that game, though, the Cougars have shown that they are not nearly as good as they were expected to be, which makes the Frogs win over BYU a bit more pedestrian.

Additionally, TCU was at home when they beat the Cougars, while it will be a different story on the road. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS (-11.8 ppg) as a road favorite off a SU win vs. an opponent off a SU win since 1999. They are also 0-6 SU in last 6 non-Saturday conference road games, while Utah is 8-0 SU in its last 8 non-Saturday home games and 12-0 SU in its last dozen non-Saturday home/neutral site non-Saturday games.

Since the Horned Frogs have enjoyed recent big spread wins, this is reflected in the line and they are now overpriced, as demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 6 on, play AGAINST a road favorite of 3 points or less off ATS wins of more than 11 points in its last 3 games vs. an opponent not off conference home underdog SU loss & ATS loss.

Since 1985, these teams are 1-10 SU ATS 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.

While TCU’s defense gets all the press, Utah’s is quite good as well. In fact, with the Utes we can play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on.

Additionally, the Utes are very tough at home where they are rarely an underdog. In fact, they’ve only been a home dog 5 times since 1997. In those games, they’ve simply gone a perfect 5-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by more than 3 TDs per game on average! They are also 4-0 SU & ATS as a non-Saturday underdog with less than 33 days rest.

Utah also qualifies for a couple of NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. The first one states:

Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a conference home favorite SU loss and not off 2 SU losses.

Just since 2006, these teams are 12-0 ATS, beating the spread by 11 ppg on average. It’s already 2-0 ATS in 2008, with each cover coming by 16½ points.

Next, we have a POWER SYSTEM that instructs:

From Game 3 on, play ON a +910% non-Saturday home team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of 16+ points).

These teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS all-time, covering the spread by more than a TD.

Finally, it certainly hasn’t escaped our notice that as good as TCU is, Utah knows how to beat them. The Utes have won 4 of the 5 all-time meetings with the Horned Frogs, including going 2-0 SU & ATS the last 2 seasons. The only loss came 3 years ago, which was by a FG in OT. We look for the Utes to play their best game of the season to win this game by a TD.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UTAH 31 TCU 24

samors
useravatar
Offline
103 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Mike Neri 

Denver +3

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

LENNY STEVENS

10* Maryland

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

BEN BURNS

ANNIHILATOR

PORTLAND


THURSDAY GAME OF THE YEAR

DENVER


THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH

UTAH


NCAA BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT

MARYLAND/VIRGINIA TECH UNDER


DIVISION GAME OF MONTH

CAPITALS

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

SIXTH SENSE

CLEVELAND –3 Denver 46

The Broncos are in a rut. They have failed to cover in six straight games and have lost three straight games. Last week they really struggled on the ground, gaining just 1.2ypr and 14 yards. To their credit they did hold a decent Miami running game to just 2.6ypr. Denver did gain 6.5yps and out gained Miami for the game 5.4yppl to 4.7yppl but three costly turnovers to only one for Miami did them in. Cleveland fell behind Baltimore 10-0, stormed back to lead 27-13 and they gave up the final 24 points of the game to lose 37-27. They were out rushed in the game 4.7ypr to 2.8ypr and out passed by a very average Baltimore passing game, 7.6yps to 6.2yps. For the game they were out gained 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl. Cleveland will start Brady Quinn at quarterback in this game. Not sure what that will mean but it is against a weak Denver defense so there is potential hope for Cleveland in this game. Denver averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.9yps against 6.6yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. Unfortunately their defense has been horrible,allowing 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Cleveland has struggled on offense this year but they are an average team on offense. They average 4.7yppl against 4.7yppl. They too are well below average on defense, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.0yppl. One of the biggest issues for Denver has been turnovers but they qualify in my turnover table this week, which is 388-247-18, which says the turnovers may go their way this week. Cleveland also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 112-47-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by a half point and predict about 50 points. I have some concerns with taking Denver in this game knowing their last two road games they have been blown out at KC and NE and knowing they have plenty of injuries at running back and on defense. But, the value lies in their favor. The situations are definitely in their favor. And we have a poor defensive team laying points, which is usually not a good sign. I’ll take my chances with Denver getting the points in this game. DENVER 30 CLEVELAND 20

3% DENVER

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Nick Bogdanovich

Large TCU -2

Medium Browns -3

Medium Rockets/Blazers Over 182½

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

DR BOB

CLEVELAND (-3.0) 27 Denver 24

The Brady Quinn era begins for the Browns tonight, which makes this game a bit tough to forecast. The timing of the move was a bit odd considering that former starter Derek Anderson was actually playing very well over the previous 4 games after a horrible start to the season. Anderson averaged 6.9 yards per pass play over the Browns’ last 4 games, so switching to Quinn may not be a wise move. Quinn performed at decent level in the pre-season, completing 66% of mostly short passes for 6.8 yppp, but he faced a lot of reserve defensive personnel. I’ll assume that Brady will play at Cleveland’s season pass rating of 0.2 yppp worse than average and he should perform well against a porous Denver defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season – although they played well in allowing just 4.9 yppl to Miami last week). Denver’s offense should also move the ball well, as the Broncos are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively while the Browns are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Broncos are suffering some attrition at the running back spot, as Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both put on IR while top back Selvin Young has missed the last few games with a tender groin and is listed as questionable for this game. The lack of running backs will probably lead to more passing and that will probably work in Denver’s favor given how poor the Browns’ pass defense is. My math model actually favors the Browns by 6 ½ points in this game if Quinn plays at the same level as Anderson, but Cleveland applies to a negative 7373-132-6 ATS situation and I’ll pass on the side in this game. But, I will lean over the 46 point total.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

BIG AL

MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

UTAH

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217172 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45125
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
284003
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.3
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3632
Newest User:
Dani
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2560

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com