WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Dr. Bob

BALL ST. (-9.5) 28 Northern Ill 19

Ball State is a perfect 8-0 straight up this season and 7-1 ATS, but the Cardinals’ best win was over a mediocre Navy squad when star WR Dante Love was still catching Nate Davis’ passes. Davis and Love had a special connection, as they racked up 460 yards on 32 passes intended for Love (28 of them were caught). Davis was one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the nation before Love was injured midway through the Indiana game in week 4, but Davis has been just mediocre without Love, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average team. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is much better offensively now that starting quarterback Chandler Harnish is back under center and the Huskies are the MAC’s best defensive team – allowing just 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. My math model only favors Ball State by 4 ½ points after making the appropriate adjustments, but the Cardinals apply to an 85-31-3 ATS late season momentum situation that I’d hate to buck. I’ll pass on this game.


AKRON (-4.5) 32 Toledo 22

Akron has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this contest and the Zips qualify in a 138-71-8 ATS situation that is 22-6 ATS for teams coming off a bye. Akron is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Zips have a 0.3 yppl advantage over a pretty solid Toledo defense that rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Akron also has the edge when the Rockets have the ball, as Toledo rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively while the Zips are at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. Akron should be favored by 7 points in this game, the general situation is favorable and Toledo is just 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 lined road games. I’ll consider Akron a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.

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Vernon Croy

25 Unit CFB MAC GAME OF THE YEAR

25 Units, Take Northern Illinois ATS, This pick falls into one of my elite CFB systems and I have the Huskies winning this game SU Wednesday so grab the points. The huskies have had to face a lot tougher opponents so far this season than Ball State and it will show as they stun the Cardinals Wednesday. The Huskies defense is very solid with opponents averaging just 227 ypg against them over their last 3 games and just 266 ypg overall this season. The Cardinals defense is not great with opponents averaging 366.5 ypg against them at home including 170 rypg and 196 pypg this season. The Huskies will be able to move the ball efficiently against this Ball State defense and they are averaging over 27 ppg this season. The Huskies are very good at running the ball and they will wear down this already mediocre Cardinals defense which will open up their passing game Wednesday night. The Huskies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. Grab the points and take the Huskies as my CFB MAC Game of the Year.

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Jake Timlin

100* Ball State Cardinals

Undefeated and playing at home on national television I like for Ball State to get the job done tonight minus the points. Yes though this series may suggest taking the points as Northern Illinois has won 3 of the last 4 meeting this years Ball State team is just to good this year in my opinion to expect the Huskies to keep it close on the road. I mean given the fact that Ball State is a perfect 8-0 this season with all eight wins coming by double digits it’s hard to fade on a team that has also gotten it done at the window as well going 6-1 ATS. Meanwhile, for Northern Illinois while they have hopes of an upset their 1-3 straight up road record this year tells us that an upset is not coming. So looking to build public attention and their national ranking take Ball State minus the home points as the Cardinals offense will pave the way for a two touchdown win.

All Ball State!

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Frank Patron

7500 Unit Wednesday Night Lock
Akron Zips -6

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Brandon Lang

5 Dime - Ball State

FREE - Akron

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charlies sports
wednesday nov 5, 2008. 
 
ncaaf. toledo @ akron over 54 (500* )
ncaaf. ball st -9 (30*)
ncaaf. toledo+6'  (20*)
ncaaf. niu @ ball st under 47 (20*)
nba. knicks-5  (10*)
nba. t'wolves+4 (10*) free play
 

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Insider Sports

4* Toledo/Akron OVER 54.5 Range: 52.5 to 56.5

3* Memphis +4 Range: +6 to +2.5

3* Portland/Utah UNDER 186.5 Range: 188.5 to 184.5

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LVTR

Northern Illinois +9.5

Indiana Pacers +3.5

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Bob Akmens

10* Akron -6.5

10* Pistons/Raptors Under 183

10* Suns -3.5

10* Hornets -9

PASS ON NHL

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STRALEY GROUP

CLIPS / LAKERS UNDER 193

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Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take N. Illinois (+9.5) over Ball State (NCAA Power Play)

Northern Illinois
• 5-1 ATS when playing in the month of November the last 3 seasons
• 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
• 5-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

10* Take Toledo (+5) over Akron (NCAA Power Play)

Akron
• 0-7 SU vs. Toledo since 1992
• 1-7 SU & ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games
• 2-9 ATS coming off a win the last 3 seasons

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NSA

20* N Illinois
10* Toledo

10* Charlotte
10* Cleveland
10* Boston

10* Edmonton

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KELSO

5 units Northern Illinois +9 ½

25 units Utah Jazz

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Andre Gomes

INDIANA VS PHOENIX

The Suns cruised in New Jersey yesterday by defeating the local Nets by 114-86, in a game which ended up being under the total posted, when this was a game to go over the total posted by about 20 points. What we have today is a line which is basically the same from yesterday, so we have value on the over.

Phoenix completely dominated yesterday's game in the paint, with Amare and Shaq not giving any chance to the young frontcourt of the Nets. This will be a back to back game for the Suns and in physical terms, a letdown could be expected for today, however their win yesterday was so easy that the Suns were able to rest all their players. The player who spent more time on the court yesterday was Amare with 28 minutes. The team reached halftime with 65 points scored, while shooting more than 75% FG! Amazing!

For this game against the Pacers, the edge that I've referred on my picks on Phoenix yesterday remains, as the frontcourt of the Suns can't be defended in normal conditions by the Pacers. Indiana's best Center Nesterovic will be out and the Pacers will need to use their rookie Roy Hibbert on this position. We have seen yesterday what happened with the rookie Brook Lopez and for today the scenario will basically be the same.

On the other side, the Pacers are coming to this game with a lot of confidence. After all, they defeated the Celtics at home by 95-79, in a game where the team had an amazing ball movement with 20 assists and 12 turnovers and had a lead at one point of 25 points over the current champions.

Last season, both games between these two teams ended with a lot of points: 238 and 251 points and this team of the Pacers is 10-2 Over in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. We have in here a game between two very confident teams and with ability to score a lot of points, so I'm taking the over in here.

PLAY 1* UNIT ON OVER 201.5

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Mike Rose   

Raptors

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Alex Smart      

N. Illinois / Ball St Over

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Seabass

20* Sacramento Kings
20* San Antonio Spurs
20* Boston Celtics
20* Washington Wizards
20* Charlotte Bobcats
20* Edmonton Oilers
20* Toledo/Akron OVER the total


100* Vegas Steam Play

Northern Illinois buying hook to +10.

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