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Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


College Key Selections
1--BYU over San Diego State 63-3
1--MISSOURI over Kansas State 58-13
2--NOTRE DAME (+) over Boston College 27-22
3--Alabama over LSU 37-24
3--Arizona over WASHINGTON STATE 61-3
4--SAN JOSE STATE over Louisiana Tech 34-14
5--IOWA (+) over Penn State 27-30
5--USC over California 45-10

NFL Key Selections
3--Green Bay (+) over MINNESOTA 23-17
4--ARIZONA over San Francisco 33-13
4--SAN DIEGO over Kansas City 34-13
5--MIAMI over Seattle 30-10
5-- DETROIT (+) over Jacksonville 20-24

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11* N.C. STATE over *Duke
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 27 - *Duke 20

Acknowledge Duke’s dramatic improvement, a direct result of HC David Cutcliffe’s arrival. But Blue Devils not
accustomed to “wearing a target” as chalk, as they must for Tobacco Road battle vs. nearby NC State. ACC sources believe 2nd-year HC Tom O’Brien has Wolfpack on the right track now that RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (accounted for 10 TDs last 4 games) has emerged as a dangerous playmaker. Wilson’s contributions also making NCS a “tough out” lately, as five covers in last six games (and taking BC, Florida State, and Maryland to the wire in last 3) would indicate. And likely return of impact LB Nate Irving from ankle injury could give young, speedy Wolfpack “D” the necessary playmaker to disrupt Duke “O” that coughed up the ball 4 times in the Devils’ OT loss at Wake.

10* *TENNESSEE over Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 37 - Wyoming 0

Despite sporting identical 3-6 straight-up records, there is a wide gulf between these two teams. Tennessee owns the 11th-ranked defense in the country and has had to face four SEC teams ranked in the top ten. Wyoming’s schedule has featured just one team ranked in the top 25, which resulted in a 44-0 loss to BYU. Wyoming snapped an 0-15-1 pointspread run with a win against San Diego State last week, but lightning won’t strike twice. The Cowboys managed to handle the injury-depleted Aztecs in the altitude at Laramie, but they’ll be lucky to merely score in Knoxville this week. Wyoming is 119th (last) in scoring (11.7 ppg) & passing efficiency, and 118th in TO margin.The Vols can finally give the soon-to-be-out Phillip Fulmer a big, fat satisfying win.

10* CINCINNATI over *West Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
CINCINNATI 27 - *West Virginia 26

Respected Big East scouts urge us to take generous number with healthy contender Cincy, which has inserted a
few gadget plays devised by wiley 2nd-year HC Brian Kelly for critical showdown in Morgantown. Scouts say
gutsy 6-6 QB Pike (wearing a protective cast) has inspired his mates by so quickly returning from painful wrist injury that forced him to miss 2nd H of UConn loss. And now that Bearcats versatile 6-0, 208 soph RB Goebel (78 YR, 3 catches for 43 yds. vs. USF) had coming out party, productive Pike (62%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.) has dump-off receiver to complement marvelous wide-outs Goodman (48 grabs, 5 TDs) & Gilyard (43, 7). WV defense hasn’t faced such a nicely-balanced attack in ‘08. After impressively containing Bulls tough-running QB Grothe, Bearcats speedy,veteran stop unit (15 pts. or fewer in 4 of last 5) is well-prepared for Mounties fleet-footed QB P. White, who’ll complete precious few vertical passes vs. ball-hawking CBs Mickens (14 career ints.) & A. Smith. Plus, triplerevenge minded Cincy is an eye-popping 9-1-1 last 12 as an underdog. Upset possible.

10* *LA.-LAFAYETTE over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 45 - Utep 24

Not many people outside of Cajun country are fully appreciative of Louisiana-Lafayette’s ground-gobbling offense, which is third in the nation behind only Navy and Nevada. Deceptive lefty QB Michael Desormeaux (752 YR) is among the best running QBs in the country, and he’s a much improved passer TY, hitting 63% with 8 TDs vs. 5 interceptions. 5-10, 205 sr. RB Tyrell Fenroy (1051 YR) has already reached the 1,000-mark for the fourth straight year. And the defense has overcome early injuries to play with spirit, helping the Ragin’ Cajuns generate seven straight covers, five of them as a favorite! While UTEP’s offense deserves respect, can’t say the same for the beatup Miner defense that’s given up 126 points in just the last two weeks!

10* *MIAMI over Seattle
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 26 - Seattle 7
(Sunday, November 9)

Talk about teams going in opposite directions this year! The four-time defending NFC West champions from Seattle can’t seem to keep their key skill players healthy. Meanwhile, the Dolphins—a sorry 1-15 last year—are 4-4 and contending in the very competitive AFC East. They’ve been reborn under the construction of Bill Parcells in the front office, the instruction of Tony Sparano in practice, and the leadership of QB Chad Pennington on the field. Pennington is carefully guiding the passing attack, the improved 2008 Dolphin OL is opening holes, RB Ronnie Brown is back in action, RB Ricky Williams has stayed on the straight & narrow, and the offense is providing valuable ball control for a defense that now has some bite with OLB Joey Porter (11½ sacks) healthy. Longest road trip in the league for Seattle!

TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Carolina-Oakland Game—Panthers have gone “over” in only two games TY; don’t ask about the Raiders’ offense...OVER (46½) in the Kansas City-San Diego Game—The rested, healthy S.D. offense will be too much for the young Chiefs to contain, but K.C. has found an offense that fits QB Tyler Thigpen & speedy RB Jamaal Charles.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NEVADA (+2½) at Fresno State (Fri., Nov. 7)—The potent Wolf Pack is second in the nation in rushing; the banged-up Bulldogs haven’t covered since the first week of the season...BYU (-37) vs. San Diego State—The decimated Aztec DL can’t stop the run; that means QB Max Hall will have all day...HAWAII (-3½) at New Mexico State—Warriors own far more quality defenders than N.M. State; Aggies injured on offense and overworked on defense...UCLA (+7½) vs. Oregon State—The Bruins have often been the hex team for the Beavers in some of OSU’s best years; UCLA 12-3 as a home dog L10+Ys...NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at Philadelphia (Sunday, Nov. 9)—G-men 15-3 vs. the spread their last 18 on the road; 10-2 their last 12 as a dog.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Northern Illinois (+10) over Ball State

Odd Wednesday night game, but once baseball ends there’s a lot of midweek games in a conference desperate for exposure. Northern Illinois better get used to it. The Huskies are playing four straight games on either Tuesday or Wednesday nights. And the first one is the toughest, as NIU takes on the top team in the league, the Ball State Cardinals. Undefeated, with wins over Navy and Indiana, Ball State has a high-powered passing attack led by Nate Davis. Davis is logging 66% completions, a TD/INT ratio of 15/5, and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. He has been bothered by the career-ending injury to top target Dante Love only slightly. Davis is obviously outstanding. But this is no walkover for Ball State. Northern Illinois is a fine three-loss team, with competitive losses at Minnesota, at Western Michigan, and at Tennessee, all by 4 or less, all spreadcovering defeats. Offering a lot of deception, multiple formations, and a varied attack make NIU difficult to defend. In their game-clinching drive against Bowling Green, the Huskies operated out of five different formations. The various quarterbacks they’ve had to use this season, and the different styles of those quarterbacks, means that opponents have to prepare for plenty of different looks. But the key to this selection is Northern Illinois’ pass defense. With a QB as accomplished as Davis, you have to be able to slow down the pass. The Huskies are uniquely qualified to do that. NIU has what is clearly the best pass defense in the conference. They allow only 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 6 interceptions and only 7 touchdown passes, all outstanding numbers. In conference play it drops to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are easily the best pass defense that Davis has faced, as Ball State’s two top non-conference opponents both have poor pass defenses, with Navy allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and Indiana permitting 8.0. Will the quality of this defense mean that it’s finally time for the loss of his top target to come into play? When you look at results in conference, these opponents are pretty equal. Northern Illinois has close losses against better opponents (Minnesota and Tennessee) than anyone Ball State has played. These teams have blown out both mutual opponents. Ball State has beaten Toledo 31-0 and Eastern Michigan 38-16. It was Northern Illinois over Toledo 38-7 and Eastern Michigan 37-0. You would expect that in the same conference teams would have more than two mutual opponents by now, but Toledo and EMU is all there is. Jerry Kill, the first year Northern Illinois coach was known for pulling off upsets over more talented teams in 1-AA, and is 3-0 to the number as an underdog here. From what we know about him and what he’s showing, it would be no surprise if Kill were coaching in the Big 10 or Big 12 in a few years. Northern Illinois hangs around for a long time. Ball State by only 4.

Saturday, November 8th, 2008

Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

Purdue (+10) over @Michigan State

Taking the Boilermakers here is not something I relish. The team is just 3-6 on the year, and come off a 48-42 win only because they played a Michigan squad that is in the throes of a meltdown of historic proportions. Freshman QB Justin Siller led the attack completing 21 of 34 passes for 266 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and ran the ball 15 times for 77 yards and another touchdown. Sounds nice, until you learn that Siller was a backup running back only three weeks ago. The regular starting QB Curtis Painter is listed as day-to-day with a separated shoulder. The Boilermakers played with little emotion until last week. Head man Joe Tiller is in his last season of a productive 12-year stint at West Lafayette and his players seem to have checked out much as their retiring coach has. But this selection is all about Michigan State. The Spartans are off a 25-24 come from behind win over Wisconsin. MSU entered the game ranked #22 in the AP poll and are sure to move up this week. But the Spartans have achieved their lofty position largely on the back of Javon Ringer and a whole lotta luck. Its not often an 8-2 team gets outrushed by a large margin, but the Spartans as a team run the ball for 3.6 yards per carry and give up 4.4. RB Javon Ringer easily leads the nation in carries with 321. That workload has brought the senior to edge of physical breakdown. Two weeks ago Ringer missed practice time with a sore hamstring, which caused him to miss some plays in the second half against Michigan. In the same game Ringer banged up his right shoulder, which had been operated on over the offseason. Last week Ringer caught a bad case of the flu and within a couple of days had lost 10 pounds. The virus took its toll and against the Badgers Ringer totaled just 54 yards on 21 carries, easily his worst game of the campaign. Mark Dantonio just doesn't have anyone else to give the ball to. And MSU's offensive issues don't stop there. QB Brian Hoyer is completing under 50% of his passes, though the receivers certainly deserve a share of the blame; they dropped at least 7 passes against Wisconsin and have had problems holding on to the ball all year. There is plenty of tech to back up this selection, but my favorite is a negative 25-53 ATS system that plays against Michigan State. College teams off the tension and excitement of a 1-point victory especially if they don't benefit from the ego boost of a perfect season record. The Boilermakers also benefit from a 43-11 ATS system derived from the snapping of their extended losing streak. This system is 4-1 since I started using it a couple of years ago. With a season ending game against Penn State on deck the Spartans need this one to lay claim to a prestigious New Year's Day bowl game. But Michigan State's best player is damaged goods and the 8-2 record is a mirage. I'd much rather be playing on another Big 10 team but the Spartans are pretty close to an automatic fade right now. Take the points. Michigan State by 1.

Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Virginia (+4½) over @Wake Forest

Have to feel terribly for Virginia’s workhorse running back Cedric Peerman. After an OT touchdown by Miami, the bruising Peerman fumbled on the ensuing possession, and when a Hurricane fell on it, the game was Miami’s. It was the first fumble in the senior Peerman’s career, and the timing couldn’t have been worse. Virginia was flat in the ballgame, but you can’t really blame the Cavaliers, as they had notched four consecutive upset wins, covering the spread by a combined 92½ in those games. They were due for a letdown and it happened on Saturday. After a horrific start to the season, punctuated by an offseason of player attrition and early season legal problems of their then-starting quarterback, Virginia has become a very tough opponent. Certainly a tremendous coaching job by Al Groh. Can Virginia bounce back emotionally after the Miami loss? UVA quarterback Marc Verica thinks so. "It's a terrible feeling," said Verica. "I'm going to work as hard as I can to not have this feeling again. It's disappointing, but that's what happens when you fail to take control of the game. So, all we can do is keep fighting and get ready for Wake." There’s a little bit of buzz about Wake Forest’s return to the I-formation on Saturday but that excitement ignores how fortunate that the Duke win was and how Wake’s offensive line continues to struggle mightily. The Demon Deacons eked out an overtime win over Duke on Saturday, but it was a fortunate one. The field-goal margin was a result of a 4-1 turnover edge against Duke. All of Wake Forest’s scoring came on drives that began in Duke’s territory. From a fumble of the opening kickoff to a missed 42-yard field goal to end regulation, Duke made mistake after mistake. On their home field Wake Forest was outpassed slightly, outrushed 145-114, and had a 21-16 first down disadvantage. Even before that, Wake Forest was in the lower echelon of nearly every meaningful category, entering the game with a horrible 4.3 yards per play average, placing them 113th out of the 120 1-A teams in that vital statistic. Wake Forest has been an equal opportunity offensive offender, 111th in yards per rush (2.8) and 89th in yards per pass. Riley Skinner isn’t having a good year, and isn’t getting much support. That 145-114 rushing deficit Saturday is not a good sign for the Deacons, as Duke averaged only 2.8 yards per rush entering the game. With a motivated Peerman looking to make up for his fumble on Saturday, Virginia should control the game on the ground. The Cavaliers have simply been playing better ball than the Deacons, and without the game being handed to them on a silver platter the way Duke did, there is little reason to expect that Wake Forest will wake up and win by any sort of margin today. The likelihood of a low scoring game makes points valuable here. Take the points with Virginia. Virginia by 3.

Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

@Vanderbilt (+24) over Florida

Certainly takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to fade the Gators after that national TV performance this past Saturday. A lot of us knew that Georgia would run out of gas sooner or later, but no one expected a 49-10 massacre. Now the Gators must continue to win and do so impressively to impress the pollsters and computers. These two factors combine to give us a number that is astronomically high for this matchup. Vanderbilt took 15-16 from Georgia “ between the hedges” a couple of weeks back, and played the Bulldogs very close. Now AT HOME, they are taking 8 points more against Florida. Basic math says that the linesmaker is telling us that the Gators are about 17 better than Georgia on a neutral field. I don’t care how bad the Bulldogs were beaten on Saturday, that isn’t the case and this is a huge overlay. Vandy was the talk of the nation early on with a home upset of South Carolina and then a road win at Ole Miss. Both of those teams are quality squads and those wins are no less impressive now than they were then. The Commodores are a well- coached team that plays a physical brand of football. They are allowing a very respectable 4.8 yards per play in the rugged SEC, and have not allowed more than 24 points in any game all season. Florida is an offensive monster, but the Commodore defense is the type that is always in position and just may be able to keep UF’s speed in front of them by not overpursuing on misdirection or biting on Tebow’s fakes.Vandy has lost only 2 of their last 17 conference home games by more than today’s margin, and 2 of the last 3 games between these two have been decided by a touchdown or less, including a 25-19 nailbiter at this site against the ’06 Gator National Championship team. This Commodore team is better than that one, and is taking over 3 touchdowns. This is an excellent for the Commodores as they come in off of a bye week against a Florida team that may be ripe for a letdown off of their biggest win of the season. Rested home dog w/revenge is a lethal combination this time of year and usually that system gets stronger when we are dealing with a quality team. The Duke loss was on the heels of a war at Georgia, and gives us more value here. The line is simply too high. Florida by only 17.

Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

@Florida St (-6½) over Clemson

What was a little family rivalry is no longer the case. This match-up used to be the annual “Bowden Bowl” with old man Bobby coaching off against his son Tommy. But after Clemson opened the season at 3- 3, Tommy was fired. So the scribes will have to actually write about the game this year, and not rehash the Bowden family angle for the week. And that will be a good thing for Florida St. For the first time in nine years, Bobby and his club can prepare for this game normally without the continuous distraction of the repetitive family questions. There was always more pressure on Bobby and Florida St because his teams were always superior. In fact, the Seminoles were 14½-point favorites or more in five of the nine meetings. The gap has closed over the last couple of years as Clemson’s talent got better, but Florida St was still favored in every one of those games. Now, without the awkwardness of coaching against his son, this becomes just another game.Tough break for the Seminoles and their backers (includes me) last week. With 52 seconds to go, Florida St was down 3 and had the ball on Georgia Tech’s 5-yard line. And on a play that looked like it was going to be the go ahead touchdown, junior fullback Marcus Sims fumbled the ball into the end zone and it was recovered by Georgia Tech. The Seminoles were somewhat fortunate to even be in a position to win considering they were down 31-20 with just 6 minutes to play. But they showed a lot of fight and resiliency. which is something past editions of this team rarely displayed. And even though they lost, and had a ton of trouble stopping Paul Johnson’s triple option, the Seminoles still out-yarded Tech 384-343 and out-first downed the Jackets 18-14. The triple option is tough to stop, especially if you haven’t faced it in over 20 years: “We haven’t played against it since Pat Dye ran it at Auburn in the middle or late ’80s. Not many people run it anymore. It’s not considered stylish,” said Bowden. So we can dismiss the 288 rushing yards allowed on 6.4 yards per rush Florida St allowed, and give them a pass because of their inexperience against the tough to stop triple option. Clemson has been competitive in their two games under interim coach Dabo Swinney. They were 4-point losers at home to Georgia Tech, and last week beat Boston College 27-21. But the sledding gets much tougher here as they’ll face a Florida St defense that lays over the two teams they just played. And with Clemson’s strength of running the football with James Davis and CJ Spiller being nonexistent over the last three games (21, 51, and 87 yards combined), don’t expect the Tigers to have any success by being one-dimensional to the pass. Clemson has beat Florida St in the last three meetings, but look for that mini run to snap here. That, along with Bobby Bowden being 41-24 against the spread off a loss makes the Seminoles the play here. Florida St by 14.

Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Notre Dame (+3½) over @Boston College

Boston College’s offense is really struggling. Despite a 4-2 turnover advantage they became only the second 1-A team to lose to Clemson. The Eagles offense notched only 11 first downs with the passing game being the main culprit. BC gained only 116 yards on 39 pass attempts. You’ve got to look long and hard for a team that logs less than 3 yards per passing attempt in a game, but the Eagles managed to pull it off. BC ranks in the lower third of NCAA ratings in most important offensive statistical categories. Chris Crane is proving not to be the answer for BC and in Boston sports parlance, Matty Ryan’s not walking through that door. BC has good defensive numbers, but let’s take a look at their schedule. They’ve played Kent State, Georgia Tech (before the Techsters started to “get” Paul Johnson’s system), Central Florida, Rhode Island, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Clemson. It would take some research to find a BCS conference team that has played a weaker slate of offenses. The only attack with any pep that BC has faced was North Carolina, a game BC lost 45-24. Notre Dame’s defense has been impressive most of the season, and their offense has picked up the pace significantly as young talent has developed. Charlie Weis’ crew only logged 391 yards against a Pitt secondary that played inspired football after their humiliation at the hands of Rutgers. But that was the lowest Irish offensive output since their September 20th failure up at Michigan State. And while Notre Dame’s schedule has been criticized, some of their opponents have proven to be better than they appeared at the time, and they aren’t playing paycheck games. Since their opener against San Diego State the Irish have played nothing but BCS conference competition. Notre Dame’s offense is in a groove, and will present a significant challenge for a BC defense that hasn’t seen many sophisticated aerial attacks this season. BC fans are generally fair-weather in nature but this is the game they really get up for. And it isn’t a rivalry of equals.But that is most dangerous when the “little brother” team brings more to the table than these Eagles do. If you’re concerned with Notre Dame fatigue off the 4 overtime loss to Pitt, be aware that the Irish defense was on the field for 77 plays, compared to 64 plays for BC’s defense last week.While I don’t mean to sound like a horse handicapper, this is Notre Dame’s third game off a layoff, so they should still have a certain amount of freshness after that week off.The loss to Pitt insures Notre Dame’s full attention here, as they are in danger of falling from BCS bowl territory (however undeserved that would have been) and need to win this one to remain at the Gator Bowl level. Take the points with Notre Dame in a game that the Irish have no excuse not to win. Notre Dame by 4.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

@LSU (+3½) over Alabama

Alabama is the new # 1 team in the country, a spot they last held in 1980. The Crimson Tide is the fifth different team to sit atop the polls this year, and the previous four all have something in common. They all were ousted after losing a game on the road. And according to our good friend Marc Lawrence, his database states that “since 1980, teams that start out the season at 8-0 or better who taste defeat for the first time have done so away from home in 75 of 102 occurrences.” And this is Alabama’s last road game of the season, so if they are to stumble, history tells us this would be the spot. Arkansas St was a very popular play last week getting over three touchdowns against Alabama. And taking those points was very logical. You had Alabama in a big letdown spot after their win at Tennessee and a game at LSU on deck. The Tide had no such letdown though winning 35-0 while holding the Red Wolves to just 157 yards of total offense. It looks like a dominating win on the surface, but a couple of red flags should be raised. Without mountainous nose tackle Terrence Cody, Arkansas St had success running the ball straight up the gut, gaining 89 yards on 24 carries when you eliminate the sack yardage. Quarterback John Parker Wilson saw a ton of blitzes, and he had trouble with them. He hit only 15 of 28 pass attempts for an unimpressive 152 yards. Now you can credit those two poor efforts to the letdown theory, but when facing lesser talent from the Sun Belt conference you just shouldn’t see it. If Alabama was on cruise control for Arkansas St, do they just expect that they’ll turn it on in Baton Rouge? That’s a big challenge considering they’ll be facing much bigger and much faster athletes at LSU.Les Miles is not a coach we’re too fond of. He makes a lot of questionable decisions throughout the course of a game. But one thing you have to give him is the fact that he’ll give his team every chance to win a ballgame. He’s fearless when it comes to going for it on 4th down, and he’ll call any type of play from anywhere on the field. One thing he most definitely is, is unpredictable. And be sure he’ll pull every trick out of his bag here. LSU is the looser team, and as Miles puts it, “Playing the No. 1 team in the country is kind of fun.” Alabama and Nick Saban have to answer all the questions this week about their jump to # 1 and his return to LSU,a place he deserted for the big dollars of the NFL.LSU is one tough place to play, and considering that the Tigers haven’t been a home underdog since 2002 (a stretch of 42 games), Alabama’s stay on top will be short lived. LSU by 3.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

@Browns (-3, -125) over Broncos

Not much productive has been written on this keyboard about NFL football this season, but one smart thing we have done is bucking the Broncos (really wasn’t intending that pun when I began to write it). Last week we detailed the terrible state of the Denver defense with oodles of statistical backing. But we can’t let their offense off the hook, can we? After a series of shootouts early in the season, Denver looked like a promising offensive unit, but in losing to Miami Sunday the Broncos scored fewer than 20 points for their fifth consecutive game. Jay Cutler is well thought of as a promising young quarterback, but when he threw his third interception in the loss to Miami it was his fifth interception in his previous 58 passes. His finger is likely still bothering him, and clearly his judgment is off. He’s getting little help from a Broncos running game that went for a piddling 14 yards on 12 carries. Shanahan’s teams have historically done well after a bye week but Denver looked woefully unprepared offensively. On Monday Denver put running backs Michael Pittman and Andre Hall on the injured list. Their defense won’t be getting any better either, as they’re very beat up. Boss Bailey’s out for the year, Champ Bailey’s out for another month, and other defenders are bruised and battered as well. Tough loss for the Browns on Sunday. After spotting theRavens a 10-0 lead, Cleveland went on a 27-3 run, but couldn’t close things out. After a botched screen pass was returned for an interception to seal the game, Browns fans chanted “Brady! Brady!” in support of backup quarterback Brady Quinn. The Browns coaching staff agreed, and Anderson, underperforming for much of the season, has been benched. Quinn gets his first NFL start, and that should have his teammates on edge, knowing that they’re responsible to help the rookie get things done. We’ve seen success for unproven QB’s in similar situations this year (see Cassell, Matt), and it could happen here. Obviously Quinn, a high draft pick, is highly thought of and has some talent. Expect him to be more accurate than Anderson, but without the same kind of big-time arm. And expect the Brown running game to perk up. Cleveland went for only 64 yards on 23 carries but they go from the #1 rush defense (Baltimore at 2.7 per carry) to #31 in Denver (5.1). That’s certainly a class drop in that phase of the game. These NFL Network Thursday night games have proven a difficult obstacle for road teams, much more than Thanksgiving games. Is it because everyone is watching on Thanksgiving, and few people are watching the NFL Network games, offering less motivation? Who knows? Obviously Denver should be better prepared for the short turnaround due to the recent bye week, but that extra time didn’t help in their game Sunday. And it hasn’t been case they’ve lost on the road on Thursday nights the past two seasons. The short week favors the home club in these situations. The record is only 6-4 against the spread in the NFL Network games but two of the losers were big dogs. When the home team is seen at least as competitive, either favored or taking 3 or less, the pointspread record is 6-2 for the home club.  While we think Brady Quinn should be OK (how about hanging onto the ball, Braylon Edwards?), the real reasons for this play are the scheduling dynamic, the fact that Broncos have failed in this situation each of the past two seasons, and the hideous level of play offered by Denver on both sides of the ball. Browns by 10.

Sunday, November 9th, 2008

Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

@Lions (+6½) over Jaguars

The Lions may be 0-8, but after a disastrous start the last four losses have been reasonably competitive. Those games were decided by 2, 4, 8 and 7 points and Detroit had leads in three of them. The Lions even managed a 23- 13 halftime lead over Chicago last Sunday before losing 27- 23. The biggest Lions' news this weekend though was the signing of free agent QB Daunte Culpepper. He worked out in Allen Park during the week, inked a deal on Saturday and Rod Marinelli announced the signing in his postgame press conference. Mum was the word during the week but it leaked out in postgame player interviews that QB Dan Orlovsky was told during the week that last Sunday would be his last start. I'm willing to look favorably on the installation of Culpepper as the QB starter. By all accounts the veteran's workouts were impressive. But most importantly was the success of Dan Orlovsky. Since Matt Millen was let go personnel decisions have been better all the way around. Millen's interim replacement Martin Mayhew got the better of Jerry Jones when WR Roy Williams was shipped back to his home state of Texas for multiple draft picks just before the trade deadline. At about the same time ex-starting QB Jon Kitna was placed on IR in favor of Orlovsky. Against a better schedule of opponents Orlovsky compiled a QB rating six points higher than Kitna's - 78 to 72. So I do believe the Lions' braintrust got this right and Culpepper will improve on the Lions' offensive stats. And Culpepper won't have a problem learning the offense, because it is the simplest scheme in the entire league. During training camp OC Jim Coletto bragged that the bulk of the running plays took only 3 days to install. One local pundit last week said he was told by a Lions' insider that the average offensive player could learn the offense in the time it took to make a single, ahem, visit to the bathroom. Those aforementioned stats are really the first indicator that drew me to this side. I'm sick of beating this horse, but starting in game 6 or so winless NFL dogs are a solid longtime winner for their backers. But it does require some intestinal fortitude because these teams are almost always taking the worst of it from a statistical perspective. That is what makes the Lions an interesting play - my stat model actually prefers them. My numbers make the Jags just a 1.5 point favorite in this game on the season long numbers. Tech backing for Detroit comes from a 112-50 ATS system that plays on teams in their division's basement. This system is 20-12 ATS since I started using it, including 1-1 so far in 2008. Detroit also benefits from a 67-30 ATS system that plays on bad defensive teams on long losing streaks. But the tech case is not the main reason to back the dog here. The Detroit organization makes better decisions without Matt Millen, and the move to install Culpepper tells the current roster that the club wants to win now, and probably won't be moving the untested 2nd year QB Drew Stanton into the starting spot just to see what the kid has. That might not be the best long term move, but it should definitely bolster the emotional state of a roster that can use every pick-me-up it can. Look for Detroit to get off the schneid this weekend. Detroit by 1.

Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

@Raiders (+8½) over Panthers

Well, here we go again. Another recommendation of a bad, ugly underdog in the NFL that will have little, to no backing on Sunday. But these are the best type of underdogs to play in the NFL, the ones nobody wants. And after you see this box score, you may think this play is flat out crazy. The Falcons shutout the Raiders 24-0 at the Coliseum with Atlanta winning first downs 30-3 and yardage 453-77 with a time of possession edge of 45:15 – 14:45. Oakland had a total of 10 passing yards. Those are no misprints, and they very well could be some sort of records. The Falcons gained 5.5 yards per play while the Raiders could only muster 2.3 yards per play. It’s really unfathomable that a team of professional athletes making millions of dollars per year could put forth an effort like that in front of their faithful fans. But that’s exactly what happened. And as you would expect, there were plenty of quotes coming out of the Oakland locker room after a humiliating performance. “During the week, we look like we’re a Super Bowl team, and we come out there and we’re damn near the laughingstock of the league, and it’s ridiculous,” said Gibril Wilson. “The people in this locker room have to look at themselves in the mirror and see exactly what they’re bringing to the table, and if they’re not bringing anything to the table, then get off the ship, period.” Interim head coach Tom Cable was quoted as saying that Sunday's performance fooled him because he thought the Raiders came into the game after "an amazing week" of practice and "our best week of preparation." If so, then how on earth can they regroup here and put forth a competitive effort against the Panthers? It’s called heart. And maybe the Raiders simply don’t have any, but this is the spot to take a shot and give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ve got it. The most dangerous animals are ones that are backed into corners, and that’s where the Raiders are right now. Nobody is taking them seriously. How can you? But they get paid just like the guys they’ll face opposite them. The talent level isn’t all that different, so we’ll take a shot with the wounded dog looking to snap back with vengeance. Carolina enters off their bye. And they witnessed what the rest of the world did. A pathetic performance out of Oakland. And like everyone else who laughed at the Raiders, the Panthers players were doing the same. Their week of practice will not be full of serious preparation, but instead one full of lackadaisical effort thinking they just need to show up in Oakland and they’ll get an easy win. Now one could say that will not be the case because head coach John Fox is such an intense guy. But when we look at his bad record as a favorite (25-30-2 ATS), his tendency dictates that’s exactly what will be going on this week in Charlotte. Under Fox, Carolina has 27……… road wins. Of those 27 wins, 17 of them have come in the underdog role and were won by 10 points or less. So that leaves ten games in which the Panthers were laying points, and of those 10 games, only 4 times have they won by 10 points or more. So that means, the Panthers would be 4- 23 against the spread if they played against the number on this game. With Carolina only 1-2 on the road this year, and Oakland off such an embarrassing loss, expect the dog to have a lot of bit here. Panthers by only 1.

Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Rams (+7½) over @Jets

The Bills are a pretty good team, but they played a flat game and made the Jets look better than they really are on Sunday. A key point in this game was in the first half. After a Jets minus-4-yard field goal “drive” to cut the Bills lead to 7-6, Buffalo took the kickoff and got the ball on their own 30. Buffalo proceeded to run the next 27 plays, notching 119 yards of offense, yet didn’t get a point out of it. How did this happen? Long drive inside the 10, 92-yard interception return, receive the kickoff, long drive inside the 10, get stuffed on 4th and 1. Leaving points on the board like that is demoralizing, and instead of being in a position of having a double-digit lead, the Bills maintained only a sliver of a margin. Buffalo played poorly from then on, and the Jets notched a win, despite their only offensive TD being scored on a 60-yard drive. After playing three good games in a row the Rams threw in a clunker on Sunday against a Cardinals team that has had their number. Arizona regularly dominates the team from their own home city, and this one was no different. But we’re willing to forgive that putrid performance by St. Louis. First of all, they were playing an Arizona team that might be pretty good, and is led by a quarterback in Kurt Warner who loves to return to his former home dome. Secondly, it’s tough to play well week after week, and St. Louis was off a 19-17 win at Washington, 34-14 domination of Dallas, and 16-23 last minute tough loss in New England to a Patriots team that they outgained. Except for the absolute top teams, winning streaks are broken easily in the NFL. And St. Louis simply had a colossal letdown on a day where Steven Jackson wasn’t 100% and shouldn’t have tried to play. The Jets benefited from 3 turnovers on Sunday and how have forced 13 on the season. The problem is that 10 of those 13 have been in two games. In their other six games they have forced only three total. So you’re not looking at a wrecking crew that’s hell bent on separating their man from the ball on a regular basis. Now let’s not suggest that the Jets aren’t doing anything well. They’re protecting Favre fairly well while generating some sacks on their own. But this 5-3 outfit is far from a dominating entry, and they are likely the weakest team with a winning record in the league. Since September and until Sunday their schedule had been bye week, Cincinnati, at Oakland, Kansas City. Against those dregs their average result was a four-point win and if not for a late TD at home against the Chiefs the Jets would have lost two of three. The Rams are capable of better than those teams, and with this team responding well to Jim Haslett, we’ll look for a bounce back. Anyone riding the Rams improvement probably stops playing St. Louis after Sunday’s blowout loss, which makes this a good time to jump on board. Favre pulls it out late, but we’ll look for a Rams cover.Jets by only 3.

Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

Chiefs (+14) @ Chargers

Kansas City has shown some spunk lately, losing two heartbreakers against the Jets and Bucs, two playoff teams, the last two weeks. They led both games very late, but their youth prevailed, as they simply do not know how to finish teams off. Sure they were aided by a combined 7-1 turnover margin in those two upset wins, but that’s the name of the game in the NFL. Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have always forced turnovers and his front 7 is very underrated and capable of causing havoc. Tyler Thigpen is improving with every game under center, and has not thrown an interception in his last 82 pass attempts. Now even the weak AFC West is bad enough for them to pull the miracle and make up 3 games during the second half of the season, but they are certainly playing some good football right now, and doing things that cover pointspreads. San Diego’s bye week along with their revenge motive for an embarrassing home loss to a Chief team that won only 4 games last season has kept this line from adjusting to the Chiefs’ improvements. It also helps our cause that they “need” this one, as they are sitting at 3-5 and still looking up at Denver in the division. Well revenge is extremely overrated in NFL handicapping, and “needing” and “doing” are two different things in this league. The fact of the matter is that San Diego cannot stop anyone this season. They fired DC Ted Cotrell after the loss to New Orleans in London, so I’m sure the stop unit will come out a bit motivated here on their strong home field, but they will have to prove it to me.They really were not a lockdown defense last season either at 320 yards per game, they just took the ball away from opposition as Shawne Merriman harassed opposing quarterbacks into throwing 30 interceptions. This year the Chargers are allowing an ugly 372 ypg, and the pass defense has been abysmal at 7.0 yards per pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 68% of their passes for a 95% efficiency rating. The run defense has been only marginally better at 4.0 ypr. Soft defenses always make a great fade when laying big points, and San Diego certainly fits the bill.This line would have been understandable at the beginning of the season, but we have seen enough of San Diego to make an adjustment. The linemaker refuses to do so, so we’ll gladly take the big number. Double-digit favorites are an ugly 3-13 ATS in the NFL this season, and we’ll look for another to bite the dust here. San Diego by only 7.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11



BYU over San Diego State RATING: 1
MISSOURI over Kansas State RATING: 1
NOTRE DAME over Boston College RATING: 2
ARIZONA over Washington State RATING: 3
IOWA over Penn State RATING: 5
SO CALIFORNIA over California RATING: 5

BYU 63 - San Diego State 3 - (2:00) -- Chance for Coogs to do one up right, off
allowing 32, 35, 42 pts last 3 outings, winning in final 1:46 & 0:22 last 2, behind
9 Hall TD throws. Aztecs: 119th "O", 120th "D", & lost last 3 RGs by 181-34.

MISSOURI 58 - Kansas State 13 - (3:30) -- Powerful Tigers needed late FG to
escape at Baylor, with Daniel just 3/2. But now in friendly confines, where they
covered last hoster by 34 pts. Nine TO deficit for KSt last 2 wks (3 Freeman
INTs LW), in ceding 110 pts. 'Cats have allowed 58 pts twice already. Ditto.

NOTRE DAME 27 - Boston College 22 - (8:00) -- Irish must regroup off 4 OT
loss to Pitt. Not much, overland (<116 yds 6-of-8), but Clausen at 1,477 yds &
12/3 last 5 games, & check 17 ppg "D" previous 9, before Pitt. BC floundering
of late: 11 FDs vs Clemson; 80 RYpg last 4; & 32 ppg "D" last 4. Call the upset.

Alabama 37 - LSU 24 - (3:30) -- Now top-ranked Tide is wearing the bull's-eye.
But they are methodical. Ten straight wins, with only OleMiss topping 92 RYs.
And Coffee, Ingram, Parker, etc lead underrated "O". Are +87½ pt ATS away.
Tigs have allowed 51 & 52 pts 2 of last 4, & visitor is 19-7 ATS in Bengal tilts.

Arizona 61 - WASHINGTON STATE 3 - (5:00) -- Tuitama had his way with the
Coogs LY (Wise Points), & no reason not to duplicate that pounding, as 'Zona
bounceback off USC loss is paramount. Running out of dubious superlatives
in describing WashSt. Lost last 3 HGs by 66-3, 63-14, 69-0. Any other way?

SAN JOSE STATE 34 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (8:00) -- Loved LT's upset of Fresno
LW, with 280-63 RY edge (Porter: 189 yds). But don't forget 9 FD, 152 yd
display in last RG (Army). So host now 9-0 ATS by 101½ pts in 'Dog games.

Penn State 30 - IOWA 27 - (3:30) -- Rested Nits now have a 376-100 pt edge,
along with balanced 2,125 RYs & 2,106 PYs, behind Clark & Royster. And
check 7th best "D". But only Wisc has topped 130 RYs vs Hawkeyes, while
Greene (6.3 ypr) & QB Stanzi keep "D"s honest. Plus 50½ pts ATS last 4 tilts.

SO CALIFORNIA 45 - California 10 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Troy now at a 220-20 pt
edge since loss to OregSt. Impenetrable "D" (#1, #1, #2, #9 in total, scoring,
passing & rushing). Bears own #12 run "D", & Best at 6.8 ypr this yr, but Cal
lost its last 2 RGs by 22, 17½ pts ATS, & just not in same league with Trojans


BALL STATE 27 - Northern Illinois 20 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- Cards now 8-0 (best
start in more than 4 decades). Balanced behind QB Davis (15/5), but just +2
pts ATS at home. NIU's "D": only 3 offensive TDs allowed in last 25 quarters.

AKRON 34 - Toledo 28 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Not much breathing room in Zip tilts
(2, 3, 4, 7 pt SU margins last 4). Exploded for 339 RYs vs EM (Kennedy: 277).
Rockets stayed with Central, but lost their last RG by 22 pts ATS. Mild Zip call.


Maryland 24 - VIRGINIA TECH 17 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Of course, it all depends on
the spread, as the dog is +144½ pts ATS in Terp games this yr (+134½ in their
4 ACC contests). Rested off taking NCSt in final 0:06, with RB Scott at 718
yds. VT lost QBs Taylor & Glennon in loss to FlaSt, & ranks 114th on offense.

Tcu 30 - UTAH 20 - (8:00) -- 10th-ranked Utes vs 11th-ranked Frogs. Utah still
perfect (9-0), are at 37.5 ppg last 8, behind QB Johnson, & rank 6th on "D".
But TCU is smoking, with a 126-28 pt edge the past 3 wks. Rank 2nd in total
"D", & 1st vs the run. Dalton threw 4 INTs LY, so don't expect such gifts again.


Nevada 38 - FRESNO STATE 34 - (9:00) -- As figured, 'Dogs couldn't keep up
weekly squeaking wins. No run "D", altho they did run for 318 yds each of last 2
HGs. Reno: 1,613-295 RY edge last 5 contests, & averaging 42 pts last 3 RGs.


RUTGERS 24 - Syracuse 17 - (12:00) -- Knight QB Teel: school-record 6 TD
passes in 54-34 rout of Pitt, but note ranking 107th in rushing, & -56 pts ATS
home TY. 'Cuse: +30½ ATS last 4; & RB Brinkley: 5 straight 100-RY games.

Wisconsin 34 - INDIANA 24 - (12:00) -- Wisky must regroup off losing in final
0:07 at MichSt, despite 281-25 RY edge. Allowing 33 ppg last 7 Big10 RGs,
but Indy minus 93 pts ATS, & has allowed >41 pts 4 of last 7. Near the spot.

Ohio State 33 - NORTHWESTERN 13 - (12:00) -- No Bacher for 'Cats in miracle
win over Minny (48-yd INT return in final 0:12), but note Kafka 12-of-16, with
217 RYs. Bucks have impressed just once all year, & rank 94th on "O", with
>170 RYs in just 2 lined games, but did cover their last RG by 34½ pts. Bucks.

MICHIGAN STATE 44 - Purdue 20 - (12:00) -- Incredible 281-25 RY deficit for
Spartans LW, but a win, nonetheless. Visitor 6-0 ATS in MSt games of late (by
64 pts), but they are a staple in home closers. No Painter for Boilers LW, but
had 256 RYs, 266 PYs in last-minute win over Mich. However, not to be trusted.

NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Georgia Tech 23 - (12:00) -- Jackets in off miracle win
(endzone fumble recovery in final 0:45). Have a 1,753-835 RY edge in lined
tilts (threw just 6 passes vs FlaSt). Rested Tars at 37 ppg last 3 HGs (UConn,
NoDame, BC), allowing 62 RYpg last 3 outings, & 3 TDs for QB Sexton in LG.

Western Michigan 31 - Illinois 30 - (12:00 - @ Detroit) -- Slipping Illini have
topped 88 RYs just 1 of last 4 games, & caught in Iowa/OhioSt sandwich here.
Bronco QB Hiller at 28/5, but that "D" has allowed >25 pts five times. We pass.

Virginia 17 - WAKE FOREST 15 - (12:00) -- Just 10 ppg for Wake in 5 games,
previous to OT win over Duke, & check <82 RYs 4 of last 7. Cavs in off killer
loss, & at only 87 RYpg last 3, but are +82½ pts ATS last 5 games. Meek call.

North Carolina State 30 - DUKE 23 - (3:30) -- Four straight losses for the 'Pack,
but 3 straight covers, with Wilson tossing 7 TDs last 4. Can't run (110th), but
neither can Imps (103rd), who lost their last HG 49-31, & in off OT loss to WF.

Oklahoma State 42 - TEXAS TECH 40 - (12:30) -- Amazing 31 FDs, 579 yds,
39 pts for Tech vs Texas, in last-second win. Harrell: 474 PYs, & now 28/5.
And how about >100 RYs in all 9 gms. But 'Pokes the epitome of balance (320
yd edge LW), behind Robinson (20/6) & 274 ypg, overland. Perfect vs spread.

Florida 38 - VANDERBILT 7 - (8:00) -- Had Gators atop RedSheet & Phones in
49-10 rout of Georgia (4 takeaways & 5 Tebow TDs). Now a 201-43 pt edge
since loss to OleMiss. Rested 'Dores at +54½ pts ATS, holding 6-of-8 foes
below 18 pts, but haven't topped 14 pts since Sept, & rank 110th in total "O".

SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Arkansas 17 - (1:00) -- Just 11 FDs for 'Cocks in 21 pt
win over Tennessee. Rank 4th, defensively, allowing <25 pts each of last 10
games, but averaging only 73 RYs last 4 tilts. Hogs took Tulsa, despite 184-50
RY deficit, & allowing 34 ppg last 13 lined gms. But SC in a revenge sandwich.

Georgia 23 - KENTUCKY 3 - (12:30) -- Luckout win for 'Cats LW, with MissSt
missing PAT & 27-yd FG. UK allowing only 12 ppg 8-of-9 games, thus far, but
minus 41 pts ATS in last 4 games. 'Dawgs' Stafford: 3 INTs in wipeout loss to
Florida, & Moreno was corralled. That all changes in Georgia bounceback call.

Bowling Green 38 - OHIO U 27 - (2:00) -- Call reversal of LY's OU road win, as
the visitor is 8-1 ATS in BG games this year, by 120½ pts. Can't stop the run
(>205 yds last 4), but Ohio in off 150-RY deficit, & minus 15 pts ATS home TY.

BOISE STATE 41 - Utah State 10 - (2:00) -- As noted LW, the Broncos seem to
play their best ball away, but check holding 6 of 8 foes below 8 pts, & only
Oregon ran on 'em. Host 6-0 ATS by 78 pts in Ag tilts lately. Not interested.

Oklahoma 63 - TEXAS A&M 24 - (2:00) -- Sooners now at 50 ppg in last 10 tilts
(Bradford: 5 TDs vs Nebraska), altho can't ignore allowing 35 ppg last 4 games.
Ag QB Johnson has 7 TD passes last 2 wks, & should dent Okie "D" a bit, but
A&M ranks 104th in total "D", & is minus 65 pts ATS at home this yr. Romper!

RICE 45 - Army 40 - (2:00) -- No stopping Owls. Try 45 ppg 8-of-9 (Texas), with
Clement off 6 TD effort vs Utep. That's 20 last 5 tilts, & 30/6 for the yr. Army:
263 RYpg last 6 (Mooney: 737 last 5), & +87½ pts ATS last 6 tilts. Wild one!

COLORADO 30 - Iowa State 17 - (3:00) -- Just 12 ppg for Buffs last 6 games, &
have now lost RB Stewart, coming from 3-0 start to 4-5. Cycs provide perfect
remedy, allowing 42 ppg last 6, off 320-yd deficit, & minus 73½ pts ATS last 4.

Memphis 41 - SMU 34 - (3:00) -- Lowly Ponies own worst "D" in land & 4th worst
run "D" (417 RY deficit last gm), but did cover last 2 HGs by 26 pts. Tigs in off
30 FD, 516 yd effort behind 4th string QBing, & 178 RYs from Steele. Pass.

FLORIDA STATE 27 - Clemson 13 - (3:30) -- Just 21, 51, 87 RYs for the Tigers
in last 3 outings, & Harper in off 3-INT showing. But none of last 7 foes have
topped 21 pts. 'Noles had 4-game run snapped in heartbreaking fashion (fumble
into endzone in last minute). Nicely balanced, along with land's 3rd ranked "D".

EAST CAROLINA 26 - Marshall 23 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Herd came alive in upset
of Houston, with a 249-106 RY edge, off a 737-211 RY deficit in previous 3
outings. Dog still the way to go in Pirate tilts (+126½ pts ATS last 8 outings).

Kansas 38 - NEBRASKA 27 - (3:30) -- Shades of '07 with LW's 52-21 Jay rout
of KansasSt, with formerly 130 RYpg "O" at 280 yds (Sharp: 181). 'Huskers
are allowing 41 ppg in last 12 Big12 contests. Balanced behind Ganz: 1,219
yds last 4 wks) & Helm (9.8 ypr vs Okies). Vividly remember LY, but not enuff.

TENNESSEE 30 - Wyoming 3 - (1:00) -- Drop down in class for Vols, who've
done little, offensively (#113), but who rank15th on "D". Finally a cover for WY
(by 19½), along with 378-17 RY edge (Moore: 234 yds), but that ends quickly.

OREGON 44 - Stanford 22 - (3:30) -- Card just latest squad to blast WashSt. At
248 RYpg last 6, behind Gerhart (4 rushing TDs LW). A 206-132 RY edge for
Ducks vs Cal, but passing game was putrid (11-of-32), so there went that. Are
-27½ pt ATS in last 2 HGs, but they play their best vs Cardinal (Wise Points).

Arizona State 38 - WASHINGTON 10 - (7:00) -- Yes, we know that the Devils,
who are on a 6-game slide, can't run (67 ypg last 5), but can't overlook 523-288
yd edge in LY's 44-20 rout of hapless Huskies. UW now 0-8, allowing 40 ppg
in last 11 outings, & >230 RY in all but one game. No "O". No "D". Sun romp.

Hawaii 27 - NEW MEXICO STATE 17 - (4:00) -- No Brennan for 'Bows (blitzed
Ags for 18 TDs last 3), who have a 293-149 pt deficit in last 9 lined games. But
Ags at 9 ppg last 3 wks, & 35 ppg "D" in last 19 lined tilts. No run "O" or "D".

HOUSTON 37 - Tulane 27 - (*:00) -- Coogs have owned Wave (Wise Points), &
have piled up 2,128 yds in their last 4 outings (Keenum: 25/7). But they're just
2-9 ATS of late, as their 97th ranked "D" has been their bane. The pup is 7-1
ATS in Greenie games, by 107½ pts, but comfy Houston wins the series rule.

AIR FORCE 40 - Colorado State 17 - (6:00) -- Clashing trends! Visitor is 7-1
SU in lined Falcon games this year, while the host is 7-0 ATS in Ram contests,
with ColoSt allowing 41 ppg away thus far. Figure Rams reeling off loss to BYU
in final 0:22, with return to form for Falcon running game off anemic effort LW.

Oregon State 27 - UCLA 20 - (6:00) -- Beavs can't let this get away, with Cal,
Arizona, & Oregon on deck. Barely escaped ArizSt, moving SU run to 6-0, &
still +78 pts ATS in those 6. Uclans have 323-63, 250-86, 232-16 RY deficits
last 3 outings, ranking 102 on "O", & Craft in off 4 INT showing. But steer clear.

Arizona 61 - WASHINGTON STATE 3 - (5:00) -- Tuitama had his way with the
Coogs LY (Wise Points), & no reason not to duplicate that pounding, as 'Zona
bounceback off USC loss is paramount. Running out of dubious superlatives
in describing WashSt. Lost last 3 HGs by 66-3, 63-14, 69-0. Any other way?

Southern Mississippi 33 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 17 - (3:30) -- Eagles not only
stopped their 5-game bleeding in win over Uab, but their 77 pts represented the
most pts they've scored since '75, while their 49 first half pts were a school
record (48-pt cover). A 463-96 RY edge (5 Davis rushing TDs). Revenge call.

TEXAS 58 - Baylor 17 - (7:00) -- May seem difficult for 'Horns to come back off
absolute killer loss in final 0:01 at TexTech. But McCoy still at 23/5 (79%), & he
riddled Bears for 6 TDs in '06. BU competitive & balanced, behind brilliance of
Griffin (26 FDs, 438 yds vs Mizzou), but not about to stay with Steers in Austin.

WEST VIRGINIA 24 - Cincinnati 20 - (7:00) -- If comparing UConn results were
true barometer, this would be 49-pt Mountie call. But 11 TO difference in those
2 meetings. WV just 220 RYpg last 4 (4.2 ypr LW), so still not up to normal
standards. Cincy in off dismantling of SoFla, behind 20-of-28 from Pike. Tight.

Louisville 31 - PITTSBURGH 27 - (12:00) -- Three-game Card run snapped at
Syracuse, as formerly 75 RYpg "D" was blitzed for 207 yds. Not to be trusted,
defensively (31 ppg last 10 lined games), but neither are Panthers (ceding 44
ppg last 2). Another 169 RYs for McCoy in upset of Irish (762 last 5). Battle.

MINNESOTA 38 - Michigan 25 - (12:00) -- Both off killer outcomes. First losing
season for Wolves since '67, & first non-bowl year since '74. Lost to Purdue on
hook-&-ladder play in final 0:25, & now allowing 41.5 ppg in last 4 RGs. Minny
at 7-2, losing on Weber INT taken in for TD in final 0:12. Plus 92½ pts ATS TY.

New Mexico 27 - UNLV 17 - (10:00 - CBSC) -- Five straight losses for Rebels, 3
in the 4th quarter. Totally outclassed by TCU (27-12 FD deficit), & have ceded
34 ppg in their last 31 outings. No rest for Lobos (11th straight week), who've
covered 5 of last 6, & who ran for 271 ypg previous 3 to Utah. Solid Nov squad.


Ball State 34 - MIAMI-OHIO 14 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Perfect (8-0) & 16th-ranked
Cards averaging 36 ppg in their last 11 outings, with the visitor on a 19-8 ATS run.
Dog 16-5 ATS in MU games, but guest is 6-1 TY. Chance to shine before nation.

Temple 27 - KENT STATE 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Owls in off ultimate loss. Led
Navy 27-7 with 9:15 left. Lost 33-27 in OT. Held previous 4 foes to 57 RYpg.
Kent awakening (238 RYpg last 5 tilts), but can't compete, defensively. Owls.

Central Michigan 20 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- CM +120½
pts ATS in last 16 MAC gms. Check Brunner for LeFevour LW: 485 PYs, 4
TDs. Visitor is 6-1 ATS in Husky tilts, but allowing just 8.2 ppg in last 6 games.


TROY 37 - Western Kentucky 17 FLA ATLANTIC 43 - North Texas 10
LA-LAFAYETTE 34 - Utep 21 Arkansas St 23 - FLA INT'NAL 21

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11



GREEN BAY over Minnesota RATING: 3
ARIZONA over San Francisco RATING: 4
SAN DIEGO over Kansas City RATING: 4
MIAMI over Seattle RATING: 5
DETROIT over Jacksonville RATING: 5

Green Bay 23 - MINNESOTA 17 - (1:00) -- These 2 are tied, a game back of the
Bears, in the NFC Central. Vikings climbed back to .500 behind 3 TDs from
Frerotte, who completed just 11-of-18 vs the Texans. And check 49 & 55 yd
completions to Berrian. So 69 pts for Minny in its last 2 games, after failing to
top 21 pts in 8 of its previous 10 games. Packers have outrushed just 1 foe
(178-102 deficit in OT loss to Titans LW), but Rodgers is now 13/5, with nearly
2,000 yds. GreenBay is 22-8 SU of late, & is not only 9-4 ATS off a loss of 3 pts
or less, but 6-0-1 ATS vs Minny, & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 RGs. Call the upset.

ARIZONA 33 - San Francisco 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Five straight losses for the
Niners, both SU & ATS, allowing 33 ppg in those setbacks. You know Singletary
won't stand for that, but little he can do at the moment. And taking on the 5-3
Cards, in this atmosphere, is hardly a remedy for a turnaround. 'Zona now with a
3½ game lead over the Niners, Seahawks, Rams, while averaging 31.3 ppg in its
last 16 games. Warner: 381 & 342 PYs last 2 weeks, with iffy running game on
the rise. Cards on 21-10 ATS run, & chalk is 9-2 ATS in 'Zona games. Niners
just 1-7 ATS off pair of losses, when seeking revenge vs winning teams. Cards.

SAN DIEGO 34 - Kansas City 13 - (4:15) -- Go ahead, figure it out. The lowly
Chiefs, who rank 32nd in containing the run, storm to a 183-81 RY edge over
the Bucs, who rank 9th in rushing "O", as well as 8th in rushing "D". And they
did it without the suspended Johnson. Anyway, KC blew a 24-13 lead in the
4th quarter of that one, losing in OT, to push their SU record to 1-7. Catching
the rested Chargers off a pair of setbacks isn't what they need, in trying to get
things straightened out. Rivers now at 19/6, while SanDiego is 14-5 ATS off a
SU loss. And the Chargers have covered their last 2 HGs by 26 pts. Blowout!

MIAMI 30 - Seattle 10 - (1:00) -- We realize that this runs head on into the fact
that the dog has covered the last 6 games involving the Dolphins, by 92½ pts.
But Miami has been brilliant of late, with Pennington at 71% in those 6 tilts. So
the Fish now rank 9th in total "O". Seattle, in stark contrast, has no offense.
Just 10 FDs & 181 yds at Philly, with Wallace clicking on a 90-yd TD pass, but
managing only 77 yds in his other 27 attempts. Covered last RG by 26½, but
had a 388-261 yd deficit. Seahawks are 3-12 ATS on the AFC road. Another

Jacksonville 24 - DETROIT 20 - (1:00) -- Can they do it again? LW, the Jags
suffered embarrassment of losing to the then 0-8 Bengals, & this week, they
get a chance to duplicate that feat vs the 0-8 Lions. Check a 159-68 RY deficit
vs a Cincy team which entered with a 1,175-616 RY deficit for the season.
Lions now on 1-15 SU slide, altho they did lead the Bears by 10 at the half LW,
with 3 TDs in a 6½ minute span of the 2nd quarter. Detroit ranks 31, 31, 32, &
32 in all 4 major defensive categories, & has topped 100 RYs just once. The
pits. But the dog is 11-0-1 ATS in J'Ville games, with 7 upsets in last 8 games.


CLEVELAND 23 - Denver 16 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Three straight losses for Denver,
with an alien 839-451 RY deficit over its last 5 games (astounding 14 RYs vs
Miami), & minus 11 TOs for the season. So the Broncos are on an 8-23 ATS
slide, with the only cover in their last 7 games by a single pt. Browns in off having
27-13 lead over Baltimore, late in 3rd, dissolve into 37-27 loss. A 193-64 RY
deficit in that one, with Cleveland outrushing exactly 1 team all season, altho that
"D" has held 9 of its last 12 foes below 20 pts. Brownies are an amazing 17-2
ATS off yielding 27+ pts, & they are 11-2 ATS as a chalk off a SU/ATS setback.

Tennessee 20 - CHICAGO 19 - (1:00) -- Titans remain the only unbeaten team in
the NFL. Just 1 TD vs GreenBay, but a 19-16 OT win, which further extends
Tennessee's brilliant run, in which it has held 11 of 12 foes under 18 pts, with
the only miss in its 31-21 Monday win over the Colts. And the Titans are +72
pts ATS for the season. Third straight HG for Bears, who saw rebirth of Rex
Grossman in comeback win over the Lions, with Orton exiting early (ankle).
Bears: from 100 RY deficit, to 100 RY edge. Chicago is 18-6 ATS hosting an
AFC team, while Tennessee is 24-10 ATS vs the NFC. Very little to choose.

NEW ENGLAND 22 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Bills sure laid an offensive bomb vs
the Jets. Just 30 RYs for Buffalo, with Lynch managing a paltry 1.8 ypr. Now
must take to the road, where the Bills are averaging a meager 13.8 ppg in their
last 13 guest shots. Try minus 32½ ATS in their last 2 as visitors. But that "D"
is still solid (11th in the NFL), & should be able to somewhat contain the Pats'
19th ranked "O". Patriots just 4-10 ATS lately, with the visitor 8-2 ATS in their
last 10 games. NewEngland is 21-6 ATS off a loss, & 22-11 ATS as a division
chalk. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS on the division road, but just 2-7 ATS vs the Patriots.

ATLANTA 30 - New Orleans 27 - (1:00) -- Wow! We know that the Raiders are
bad, but not as bad as the pasting that the Falcons laid on them. Try a 30-3 FD
edge, along with a 454-77 TY advantage, in that 24-0 whitewashing. Check
Ryan at 17-of-22, with another 139 RYs for Turner (now at 794). Thus the
vastly improved Falcs are just a game back of Carolina. Saints survived the
Bush injury, with Brees firing for 339 yds & 3 TDs in win over the Chargers, to
push his totals for the season to 2,563 yds & 15/7. So plenty of fireworks in
store here, & with Falcons 17-8 ATS as division chalks, it's a mild Atlanta call.

NEW YORK JETS 23 - St Louis 19 - (1:00) -- Three-way tie atop AFC East, with
Pats, Bills, & Jets. NewYork did a fine job of containing that Buffalo "O", & has
now allowed only 49 RYpg in 4 of its last 5 outings. Offensively, the Jets have
averaged 37 ppg in their last 3 HGs, but lost their last hoster by 10 pts ATS.
StLouis had its 3-game spread run rudely ended, with that 510-231 yd deficit
in 34-13 loss to the Cards, & has now failed to reach 20 pts in 7 of its last 8
games. But note that the Jets are 1-10 ATS chalks of 7+ pts off a pair of wins.

Carolina 30 - OAKLAND 10 - (4:05) -- How can anyone logically call this any
other way? Sure, things in the NFL are rife with nonsensical results, but we
can see no way that the Raiders can completely rebound off what has to be
their ultimate embarrassment: 30-3 FD & 454-77 TY deficits in their home
loss to the Falcons. Check Russell's 6-of-19 for 10 yds. Raiders: 9.4 ppg in
last 5 outings. Rested Panthers sit atop the NFC South, after overcoming a
17-3 3rd quarter deficit vs the Cards, with Delhomme now at 9/5. Are 7-2-2

PITTSBURGH 27 - Indianapolis 20 - (4:15) -- Tony Dungy returns to Pittsburgh.
The Colts snapped their mini 2-game slide, with narrow escape vs the Pats,
but note a 140-43 RY deficit. And they entered that game with a 144-73 RYpg
disadvantage. So they should have their hands full with the Steelers, altho Pitt
isn't up to its normal overland standards, ranking just 18th in that category,
thus far. Defensively, however, it's all Steeler, ranking 1, 3, 1, 3, in total "D",
rushing "D", passing "D" & scoring "D". Indy is just 5-13 ATS away off a win of
3 pts or less, while Pitt is 7-0 ATS as a Nov non-division host vs a foe off a win.

New York Giants 23 - PHILADELPHIA 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Oncoming Eagles
have won 3 straight, while averaging 31 ppg. As we've said many times, a
healthy McNabb is a whole new world. Threw for 349 yds in annihilation of the
Seahawks LW, & is now at 10/4. Catching the Giants off Pitt & Dallas is a plus,
but NY is an entirely different matter. Check 23-11 FD & 200-81 RY edges in
rout of the Cowboys. NY is 14-3 ATS on the road, has held 8 of 12 foes to 17
pts or less, & is 12-1 as a division dog vs a foe off a non-division SU win. Philly
is 8-2-1 ATS of late, but the visitor is 6-0 ATS in Eagle division contests of late.

Baltimore 27 - HOUSTON 23 - (1:00) -- We know that the Texans are averaging
a superb 31 ppg in their last 9 HGs, & have a 95-60 FD edge in their last 4
games, but quite frankly, opening as a 2½ pt chalk here, is a bit puzzling. After
all, their quality QB Schaub left in the 2nd quarter of their loss to Minny, with his
status questionable, as we go to press. The Ravens are on a 7-1-1 ATS run,
with their 24-0 windup over the Browns, their latest accomplishment. Check a
525-182 RY edge in their last 3 games. The Texans are 17-27 ATS vs nondivision
foes, but the Ravens are 14-5 ATS off pulling an upset. Baltimore call.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


Recommendation: Ohio State

The bye week figures to have helped Ohio State in numerous areas and I expect the Buckeyes to come out extremely revved up for this contest. The extra practice time for freshman QB Terrell Pryor and the first-team offense should lead to more points from OSU. Since conference play begun, the Wildcats’ defense has not been as good as the overall numbers might suggest. Through five Big Ten affairs, the Wildcats have allowed 377 total yards per game and if you eliminate the punch-less offenses of Syracuse, Southern Illinois and Ohio from their schedule, you’ll find that their other six opponents have gained nearly 400 ypg of offense, keyed by 264 ypg passing on 64% completions. Look for OSU’s dual-threat ability of Pryor and Wells to open the doors for a very successful air attack. Northwestern should be ripe for a letdown after a remarkable last second victory as a road underdog to 7-2 Minnesota. Combine that with the fact that Ohio State has yielded just 23 points in its last three games and you have all the makings of a rout. The Buckeyes are still playing for a coveted Rose Bowl invitation which will have them focused and ready for a big win.

Recommendation: UL-Lafayette

This play comes from a huge advantage in the most important aspect of football: one team’s ability to run the football and the other teams’ inability to stop them from doing so. In all of my years of doing the ACCU-STATS: True Rushing numbers in college football, I am not sure I have found an advantage as lopsided as this game. ULL is simply one of the premier running teams in the nation. Ricky Bustle’s squad has gained 2,505 yards on the ground at 7.10 yards per carry. In addition, they throw it for 7.07 yards per pass play and have scored 37 points or more in five of their last six games. The Cajuns will have little resistance against a UTEP defense that has allowed 6.04 yards per carry and 7.90 yards per pass play. In a recent three-game stretch, the Miners allowed 287 rushing yards to Southern Miss, 329 to Tulane and 324 to Tulsa -- none of which run the ball as well as UL-Lafayette. I expect UTEP to score some points of their own, but in the end, the running game will prove to be too much to handle and the Miners won’t be able to keep up with the Cajuns. Lay the points.

Recommendation: Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee hasn’t had a particularly stellar season but by Sun Belt standards they’ve played a pretty difficult schedule. Out of conference, the Blue Raiders have faced the likes of Maryland, Kentucky, Louisville and Mississippi State. In those four games, they are a miniscule -23 in points scored. Plus in their lone blowout loss, they headed into the fourth quarter against Louisville down 21-17. Within conference play, it hasn’t been much easier, having played the current top four teams in the league. Middle Tennessee’s previous eight opponents allow an average of 337 ypg and 22.6 ppg. UL-Monroe allows over 450 ypg and 29.3 ppg. We also see that there is a 90 ypg game difference in favor of the Blue Raiders in overall defense - a number worthy of note when you consider their schedule versus that of Monroe, who has faced just two BCS opponents. In fact, MTSU’s schedule difficulty (76th) ranks much higher than UL-Monroe (129th) and that includes the Warhawks’ contest against No. 1 Alabama. MTSU QB Joe Craddock should match the 404 yards and four TDs on 22-of-29 passing in the Blue Raiders’ victory in Monroe last season. This week with MTSU rested and ready and Monroe off an upset win over Troy, the situationals call for the home team to post a spreading-covering win.

Recommendation: Oklahoma State

Texas Tech moved up to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings after its monster come-from-behind win over Texas. But the season is far from over for the Red Raiders as they play host to Oklahoma State this weekend and then head on the road to face Oklahoma in two weeks. I personally don’t think there is much difference between any of the top four or five teams in the Big XII. When I took a look through the Big XII’s statistics, I tried to find if either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech had a significant advantage in this matchup but I couldn’t find one. From a situational standpoint however I see OSU with a big edge, especially getting over a field goal. Texas actually dealt with its success as well as any team in recent memory but their fourth straight game against top-notch competition finally caught up to them last week. I don’t expect the Red Raiders to be nearly as sharp this week after the amount of attention they will no questionably receive throughout the week. Oklahoma State was also one drive away from beating Texas in Austin and I feel they are poised to close the deal in Lubbock. Take the points.

Recommendation: Baylor

The Longhorns will try to pick up the pieces from last week’s heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech, as Baylor comes to town. No question, the Longhorns should show some signs of fatigue given their recent stretch of top quality competition. Games against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech led to one of the toughest stretches in recent memory. The emotion of the Oklahoma State and Texas Tech games coming down to the last possession alone is enough to make any team a tough sell the following week. Meanwhile, it would make Baylor’s season with a strong showing in Austin. Dynamic freshman quarterback Robert Griffin can keep the Bears in the game with his arm and legs as the injuries and suspect play of Texas’ secondary should allow for a couple of Baylor scores. Last season, the Bears averaged just 78 ypg rushing and 13.5 ppg against the Big XII and came away with the spread cover (+26) in a 31-10 loss against the Longhorns. This season, those numbers are up to 183 ypg and 21.8 ppg. We’ll take the big points with an improving Baylor squad.

Recommendation: NC State

We’ve made some money betting on the Duke this year in their preferred role as an underdog. In fact, David Cutcliffe has helped continue the Blue Devils’ propensity to cover as an underdog with a 4-2 ATS this year and a 5-2 ATS mark in 2007 as a road underdog. Duke as a favorite of more than a field goal is another story entirely, particularly coming off a crushing overtime loss at Wake Forest. The Blue Devils’ weakness in the kicking game cost them once again, as Nick Maggio missed a 41-yard attempt at the end of regulation. That was followed by a Thaddeus Lewis interception in overtime. Now, we’ve seen the betting marketplace install Duke as a solid favorite against another in-state rival, despite the fact that Duke has lost five straight meetings with NC State in Durham and 10 straight meetings overall. Since the inception of overtime in college football in 1996, home favorites coming off an overtime loss are a dismal 25-44-2 ATS, cashing only 36% of the time. Beating a rested Wolfpack squad following their bye week will be no easy task for Duke, let alone beating them by more than a field goal. NC State hung tough with Maryland in a three-point spread covering road loss prior to the bye, and I expect them to hang tough in this one.

Recommendation: New Mexico

The injuries continue to mount for UNLV. Last week they lost the one player they absolutely could not afford to lose as quarterback Omar Clayton went down with a banged-up knee. He is expected to miss at least a week, if not more. This leaves the Rebels with a porous defense and an offense that can’t simply trade scores to mask it. Clayton had thrown for 18 TDs against just five INTs on the season, leading the Rebels to spread covering losses against Air Force and BYU. But as soon as he went down last week, there was no hope for the Rebels against a fast TCU defense. They are now tasked with moving the ball against a New Mexico defense that is playing its best football of the season after holding Utah’s vaunted offense to 13 points. With a decided edge on defense, the key to victory for the Lobos will be their ability to run the football with Rodney Ferguson and QB Brad Gruner. As I see it, they should have no problem as UNLV gives up over 5.5 ypc according to our ACCU-STATS numbers. Look for New Mexico to grind its way to a double-digit win this weekend.

Recommendation: Detroit

We cashed another outright underdog winner on the Cincinnati Bengals over Jacksonville last week as part of our 5-1 service play Sunday. We’ll come right back with another ugly home underdog this week. The Lions remain winless after letting a victory get away at Chicago last week, but they’ve been more competitive in their last four games versus better opponents than Jacksonville.The Lions’ No. 31-ranked running attack remains a problem along with an inexperienced quarterback unable to make consistent plays in the passing game. But the Bengals’ equally poor QB play and running game had a season-high 159 rushing yards last week against this troubled Jaguars defense that allows over 5.8 ypp, 4.5 ypr and 7.5 ypp. The Jaguars’ offensive line play remains a concern, along with the team’s mental make-up following back-to-back losses as 7-point favorites. We’ve also seen head coach Jack Del Rio lash out at his players en route to being placed on the coaching hot seat. Overall, the Jaguars’ prevalent chemistry and confidence issues combined with the Lions still clawing for their first victory has us taking the points.

Recommendation: Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the bigger surprises of the season thanks to a sound defense and ball control offense. Running back Michael Turner’s arrival was the perfect compliment to quarterback Matt Ryan’s development. In fact, you couldn’t have gotten a better situation than to have a rookie quarterback playing behind the league’s No. 1 rush offense. But while the run game is the first option, Ryan has shown he can stretch the field and make good decisions. In facing the league’s 24th-ranked pass defense, we fully expect another balanced offensive performance out of the Falcons. New Orleans comes in off a bye week and its trip to London where they moved to 4-4 with a win over the Chargers. It is no secret that the Saints want to throw the ball early and often but we’ve see the Falcons’ bend but don’t break defense come out victorious when forcing teams into a one-dimensional mode. In wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit, the Falcons allowed 359 ypg passing but limited the run game to 81 ypg. Those numbers are almost identical to what the Saints average for the season. After getting rid of the bad apples and making some smart off-season moves, you could argue the Falcons have surpassed the Saints in terms of overall ability. Look for a big divisional win from them this weekend.

Recommendation: Minnesota

Gus Frerotte has made a huge difference for this Minnesota team as the Vikings have outpassed the opposition in four of their last six games. They rank in the upper half of the league in both yardage and scoring while still keying their offense with a very strong rushing attack. Defensively, they are tremendous at stopping the run, allowing just 69.6 ypg. At 4-4 at the midway point they are in good position for the time being within their division. However, having already suffered losses to both Chicago and Green Bay, these remaining division battles take on added meaning. Green Bay is a similarly skilled, but flawed team. While more successful with the passing attack they have struggled to maintain a consistent rush offense. Defensively they are much weaker in stopping the run and that plays favorably to Minnesota’s offense. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Packers escaped with a Monday Night home win. If Minnesota had a adequate passing attack at the time instead of Tarvaris Jackson, they likely would have reversed the outcome. With that option now available, we like Minnesota to earn the win. Home field in a win situation has been a consistent earner for Minnesota as they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread as a home favorite of -3 or less. Look for that success to continue.


Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick has absolutely no ability to throw downfield; nothing but dinks and dunks out of this offense. The entire passing game is nothing but glorified handoffs to their wide receivers, little four-yard out patterns and five-yard slants. Fitzpatrick threw 19 passes in the first half, gaining 100 yards on barely five yards per attempt. Not exactly explosive offense kind of numbers. In fact, the Bengals rank dead last in the NFL by a wide margin in yards per offensive play. Still, at least Fitzpatrick is completing these passes after a month in the starting lineup, and they are very difficult to defend when thrown accurately. Great continuity on the offensive line helps as the same five guys have started at the same five positions all year. Cinci seems loose and relaxed, a team playing with nothing to lose which is never a bad thing from any underdog.

Bills - The Bills turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter in their loss at Miami last week. Here, in the first quarter, they put the ball on the turf twice, losing one of the fumbles, and then watched the Jets return an interception 92 yards for a touchdown. Ball control is a staple of the Dick Jauron era. This team simply isn’t good enough to overcome these types of mistakes. They were then stuffed on fourth and short, running an amazing 27 consecutive offensive plays without scoring a point. The Bills red zone defense has been nothing short of outstanding all year, a team that gives up yardage but stiffens repeatedly in the red zone. Their red zone offense, however, is another story entirely, particularly on a day where the running game was simply non-existent.

Browns - Three straight games without an offensive turnover heading into this game, but that didn’t last long against the Ravens. No wonder the Browns have looked so good in recent weeks – when you never turn the ball over, the offense tends to put up pretty good numbers. This secondary continues to be a problem area, getting burned repeatedly. It really does all come down to the defensive line. When Shawn Rogers is playing like a man on a mission, he puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks on nearly every play. Today, Rogers showed little of the fire he had last week at Jacksonville and without any other defender capable of putting pressure on the quarterback, it wasn’t pretty for the stop unit.

Chiefs - This is a completely different team with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. Wildcat formations, reverses, Thigpen catching long touchdown passes downfield. If I didn’t know any better, I would swear that I just saw four quarters of creativity from a Chan Gailey offense. This is another very bad team playing like they had absolutely nothing to lose. Their 250 yards of offense in the first half against a pretty good Bucs’ defense is extremely impressive from an offense that ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per offensive play. The offense is showing elements of the spread attacks that have proliferated in college football over the last five years. Of course, no lead is safe with this sorry group of rookie cornerbacks, as evidenced by their late game meltdown here

Jaguars - Last week, this defense had no sacks and created no turnovers. This week, we saw Rashaun Mathis drop a sure interception,and once again, they got very little from their pass rush, unable to put any sort of consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback. That’s why they allowed five consecutive third down conversions to open the game – many of them third and long situations – as the Bengals marched down the field for touchdowns on each of their first two drives. The pressure on Jacksonville seems to be palpable, a team weighted down by the enormity of their own expectations.

Jets - This team continues to outperform their abilities, going 23 minutes without a first down in the first half, yet still leading by six. The offense certainly doesn’t seem very pretty or functional, based largely on Brett Favre’s ability to create something out of nothing, fitting his passes into very tight spaces. We’re seeing a steady diet of short passes, with Favre getting rid of the ball very quickly. But Kris Jenkins continues to play like a man among boys at defensive tackle, the pre-eminent run stuffer in the NFL this year, carrying the Jets defense on his broad shoulders.

Ravens - Ten different Baltimore defenders have notched at least one sack this year, tied for the most in the NFL. Seven different defenders have at least one interception, and six have forced a fumble. Even with three starters out with injuries in the secondary,this defense made big plays all day against the Browns. Joe Flacco is getting better and better every week, the class of this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks. We’re seeing some downfield passing out of this offense now, something that Baltimore wasn’t doing a month ago. Mark Clayton caught a long bomb for a touchdown, and on the very next drive, Flacco took another long shot down field to his ‘big play’ receiver – the same receiver that hadn’t caught a single touchdown pass since 2006. The coaching staff clearly demonstrated their confidence level with Flacco by running a no-huddle offense throughout the second half, trailing on the road.

Titans - This secondary is filled with ‘no-names’ – lower round draft choices, unsung veteran free agents, yet they are playing like the best secondary in the NFL. When did Cortland Finnegan become an emerging superstar? How did Chris Hope suddenly develop into one of the NFL’s best safeties? Coaching has to be at least some part of this equation -- let’s give some credit to unheralded defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The entire Titans offensive philosophy revolves around rushing the football effectively,and once again, they did a stellar job controlling the line of scrimmage and opening up running lanes for LenDale White and Chris Johnson, the best ‘thunder and lightning’ RB duo in the NFL this year. With only four sacks given up by the offensive line all year, the Titans consistently avoid difficult down and distance situations.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11



Michigan (+8) over MINNESOTA

Mich is a perfect 11-0 SU in the Metrodome winning by 28 ppg delivering many LPS winners for us
in the process. At 2-7 the Wolves’ 33 year bowl streak is over as they are guaranteed their 1st losing
season S/’67 after a 48-42 loss to Purdue. Behind a 3rd string QB making his 1st start the Boilers
outgained the Wolves 522-300 & outFD’d them 25-15 yet won on a hook and ladder lateral with :26 left
as Mich scored 3 TD’s on drives that started in PU terr. QB Threet is #94 NCAA pass eff avg 120 ypg
(54%) with a 9-6 ratio. Mich is #114 in the NCAA with 25 TO’s lost. The Wolves D is allowing a school
record worst 30.9 ppg (39 vs BCS opp) and they are #69 in pass eff D (252, 58%, 13-5 ratio). Minny
is off a heartbreaking 24-17 loss to NW in which the Cats ret’d an int 48 yds for a TD with :12 left.
QB Weber is avg 239 ypg (66%) with an 11-4 ratio. WR Decker is #3 in the NCAA with 73 rec (12.3).
Minny is #2 NCAA in TO margin at +15. It’s hard to believe that the UM team with the 7-2 record is
wearing Maroon and Gold and the Gophers haven't been favored in this series in at least 30 years.
There is great line value here as if this game was played in Wk 1 the Wolves would be a DD fav and
don't outright upsets make for great 5H? FORECAST: Michigan 21 MINNESOTA 20

4* Florida over VANDERBILT - Vandy has lost 17 in a row SU but is 9-5 ATS in this series with
2 of the L/3 decided by 7 or less. LY UF led 42-10 in the 4Q before Vandy scored 12 late pts in the
Gators 49-22 win (UF -14’). Tebow had 5 TD’s and UF had 358 yds in the 1H. Meyer is 4-8 as an
AF (but 2-0 TY) and the Gators are in a GA/SC sandwich. LW UF took advantage of UGA TO’s for a
dominating 49-10 win which delivered a 4H LPS Winner. Vandy is off a bye and still trying to get that
elusive 6th win which would clinch their first bowl S/‘82. Vandy is 9-3 ATS the L/2Y vs SEC East foes.
Vandy was 4-9 ATS as a HD prior to a 2-0 run TY in which they upset both SC & Aub. Tebow leads
UF’s #3 off and has avg 196 ypg (64%) with a 14-2 ratio and 266 rush (2.8). UF has the edge on def
(#4-22) and ST’s also (#2-54) though VU ranks #8 in our pass D rankings. Vandy’s #108 off is led by
McKenzie Adams who has avg’d 72 ypg pass (51%) with a 5-5 ratio. Though this is a letdown spot
for UF, Meyer is 14-3 as a favorite and has gone for late frontdoor covers vs Mia and Ark TY and the
win here clinches the SEC East. FORECAST: Florida 38 VANDERBILT 7

3* WEST VIRGINIA over Cincinnati - In 1987 we used WV (-13’) at home against Rutgers as our College
Game of the Year and they rolled to an easy 37-13 win. WV is 14-1-1 SU in the series & 5-3-2 ATS but the
dog is 6-2 ATS. In ‘03 Cincy upset WV here 15-13, but in their last trip (‘06) UC lost 42-24 (+18) needing 2
garbage scores for the backdoor push. LY WV was in control leading 28-10 but UC again got two garbage
TD’s to cover (+5’) 28-23. LW week we won our 4’H LPS on WV, who despite trailing 13-7 at half, rolled to
a 35-13 win over Conn. WV has outscored opp’s 65-7 in the 3Q. QB White is passing for 126 ypg (70%)
with a 13-3 ratio & has rushed for 545 yds (5.3). RB Devine is avg 114 ypg (6.9). They now face a Cat D
all’g 112 ypg on the ground. Cincy upset #24 USF LW 24-10 on Thur night. Facing one of the nation’s top
D’s, QB Pike returned & passed for 281 yds (71%) and 2 TD’s. Their #1 BE pass off will now face a WV D
all’g 186 pass ypg (56%) with a 5-9 ratio (#38 pass eff D). WV has the off edge (#28-66) & slight def edge
(#28-38) while Cin has the ST’s edge (#1-29). WV HC Stewart will look to make a statement in front of the
home crowd before heading into the bye. FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 34 Cincinnati 13

3* Wisconsin over INDIANA - The Badgers are 9-2 SU vs Indy with their avg win by 25 ppg &
delivered as our favorite Sept 5H of all time in ‘94 winning at home 62-13 (-10) vs #25 Indy. In ‘03 we
used Wisky (-6’) at Indy as our College GOY & they delivered 43-22. In ‘03 UW was -1’ at home vs
Mich St and they won easily 56-21 as our College GOY. Thanks in part to 12 penalties, UW blew an
11 pt 4Q lead as Mich St hit a 44 yd FG with :07 left. We won a 3H LPS on the Badgers (+5’) who
outrushed the Spartans 281-25 with Hill (719, 5.7) and Clay (591, 5.7) both rushing for 100 yds. In
the L/2 gms UW has held IL’s Williams (3 int’s) and MSU’s Ringer (54 yds) to ssn lows. IU lost to their
2nd MAC team all-time (both TY) in a 37-34 loss to C Mich in which the Chips backup QB Brunner
passed for a school record 485 yds & 4 TD and they easily won our 4H College Totals Play on the
Over. Both Indy QB’s played but Lewis reinj’d his ankle in the 3Q and DNR. The D had a season high
7 sks including Mayberry’s school record 4 but is allowing 193 rush ypg (4.1) in B10 play. At 1-5 in
conf play UW resides in the B10 basement and the desperate Badgers end the Hoosiers hopes for a
second consecutive bowl trip. FORECAST: Wisconsin 38 INDIANA 17


2* W MICHIGAN (+) over Illinois - This game is at Ford Field, the home of the Detroit Lions and while
WM did play here once in ‘05, Illinois has more experience, playing in domes 4 times since the beginning
of LY. In their last meeting in ‘03, WM had a 406-353 yd edge but Illinois got a TD with 1:02 left to pull out a
30-27 home win (-8’). Cubit owns upsets of Iowa and Virginia on the road and an near upset of Fla St in his
4 yrs. Their win over Iowa late LY kept the Hawkeyes home for the holidays. The Illini have the off (#16-42)
and def (#45-69) edges despite playing a much tougher schedule (#23-118). The Illini are led by QB Juice
Williams who is avg 271 ypg (59%) with a 19-12 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 509 yds (3.9) just 30 yds less
than RB Dufrene (539, 5.6) who DNP vs Iowa (personal). WM QB Hiller is avg 317 ypg (69%) with a 28-5
ratio while RB West leads the tm with 852 yds (5.3). Both tms are in conf sandwiches. The Illini need one win
to become bowl eligible and has Ohio St & NW (combined 14-4) on deck but has struggled with consistency
TY winning B2B games just once and going 2-4 as a fav. The wrong team is favored here as the Broncos are
the more consistent team. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 37 (+) Illinois 34

2* Ohio St over NORTHWESTERN - LY NW RB Sutton was a late scratch & OSU led 45-0 at the half
as NW’s only TD came via a KR (OSU had 191-0 rush yd edge). Since NW upset Ohio St here in ‘04,
Tressel has punished the Cats in 3 gms by an avg of 53-8 & OSU fans will make up at least half the
crowd. OSU is 12-3 as an AF while NW is 14-7 ATS as a conf HD (0-1 TY). OSU used the bye to shore
up an offense which has failed to score a TD in 3 gms TY & is avg 318 ypg (#97 NCAA). QB Pryor had
a career high 16-25 for 226 yds vs PSU but also had 2 costly TO’s. RB Wells has 674 yd (5.4). OSU
is #6 pass eff allowing 163 ypg (56%) a 7-12 ratio. NW is off a miracle 24-17 win at Minny in which S
Smith had a 48 yd IR TD with :12 left. In his first start since ‘06 Kafka rushed for a school QB record 217
yds (out of NW’s 220) running the speed option and also hit 12-16 for 143 yds as Bacher (hamstring)
DNP. Sutton’s replacement Conteh had 12 yd on 12 carries. The Cats allow 119 rush ypg (3.7) in B10
play and have 26 sks. The last time OSU went on the road they pounded Mich St 45-7 as our Oct 5H
GOM, could we back the Bucks again? FORECAST: Ohio St 34 NORTHWESTERN 10

2* Arizona over WASHINGTON ST - Back in 1982 & ‘83 we used AZ as our first 2 College GOY’s vs
WSU as they won on the road 34-17 (-6) & at home 45-6 (-7’). Amazingly we also won with our first ever
5H Newsletter Selection in this matchup with AZ winning at home in ‘90. They return from a bye off a
7 pt loss to USC, a gm in which they had their chances for an upset despite being outgained 367-188
(QB Tuitama just 88 pass yds, 154 under ssn avg). AZ is 9-3-1 ATS in the series & here in ‘06 Tuitama
led the Cats to a road upset (+16) 27-17 against the #25 Cougs. LY AZ pounded WSU 48-20 (-3) in a
gm that featured 985 yds of ttl off & 55 FD’s. After failing to be shutout for 280 consec gms, the Cougs
were blanked for the 2nd straight wk on the Farm vs Stanford (0 pts in L/10Q’s). WSU has now dropped
every lined gm vs IA opponents TY & has already given up a single-ssn P10 record in pts at 350. The
dog is 6-2 ATS & WSU does have the cold weather edge (rain in the forecast) but inj (5 QB’s used TY)
& poor play will likely continue their woes here. FORECAST: Arizona 45 WASHINGTON ST 3


Wednesday, November 5th

Northern Illinois at BALL ST - N Illinois won here 40-28 in ‘06. LY Ball St was at full strength and bowl
bound taking on an injury depleted NI squad on the road (-8) but the Huskies got the backdoor cover
with 1:31 left. This year both are in the MAC West Title hunt as Ball St is 4-0 in conf play while NI is 4-1
and both still have games vs MAC West leader C Mich.

Toledo at AKRON - Toledo is 8-1 SU in the series covering the last 6 but has not traveled here since
1998 and the Rockets are just 3-12 SU on the road. Akron is off a bye and owns the only MAC East SU
win over a MAC West team (EM) TY

Thursday, November 6th

Maryland at VIRGINIA TECH - VT has won both ACC meetings outscoring
MD 83-15. VT is 14-1 SU the L4Y in Nov/Dec reg ssn games. VT is 15-5 SU & 12-3 ATS on Thur Nights.
MD is 20-14 ATS as an AD. Mary has upset #10 Rutgers and #19 Clemson on the road the L2Y. MD
is ranked for the 1st time S/’06 & is bowl elig for the 6th time in Friedgen’s 8 seasons. QB Taylor and
Glennon were inj’d in VT’s loss to FSU (CS). If neither can go, Cory Holt would start for the Hokies.

Tcu at UTAH - These high powered off’s have only avg’d 39 ppg in their 5 meetings & LY totaled 512
yds. TCU is just 2-5 SU on Thurs (crushed BYU earlier TY) and UT is 15-3 SU in Nov (5-3 SU on Thurs).
UT holds a 4-1 SU adv over TCU with the avg score 24-15 (only loss in ‘05). TCU clearly suffered no
lookahead LW in their 44-14 win over UNLV, outgaining the Rebs 410-175, while Utah struggled at
NM only winning 13-10 (388-284 yd edge). Both tms are on short weeks for this gm with huge BCS
implications but TCU is traveling to altitude and on their second straight road game.

Friday, November 7th

Nevada at FRESNO ST - FSU has won 8 of the L/9 (6-2-1 ATS) with the avg
win by 21 ppg. These 2 have avg 70 ppg in the L/4, going over the ttl 3x. LY marked the coming out
party for UN’s Kaepernick (384 yds & 4 TD) when he stepped in at QB after an inj & has been the #1
QB ever since. He’s avg 190 ypg (61%) with a 12-4 ratio & his 752 yds rush (tm-high 12 TD) and along
with RB Taua’s 896 yds (10 TD) gives UN the #2 rush off in the NCAA (306 ypg). UN’s Achilles’ heel
is its pass D (#119 in the NCAA) all’g 328 ypg. FSU is 7-3 ATS in Nov HG’s S/’03 but is 2-8 ATS as a
HF & is looking to end an 0-7 ATS streak. QB Brandstater is avg 224 ypg (62%) with a 15-6 ratio & is
coming off a 296 yd, 4 TD outing in the loss to LT LW. FSU’s rush off avg 197 ypg led by RB Mathews
with 593 yds (5.4). He ran for 171 yds & 3 TD in LY’s 49-41 (+3) road win.

Saturday Games

RUTGERS 34 Syracuse 13 - LY Rutgers trailed 14-0 but rallied back with 38
unanswered pts in the Carrier Dome. The HT is 8-2 ATS and RU has won the last 3 by a 36-10 avg
and the fav is 15-1 ATS. In ‘06 here we used a 3H Key Selection on these pages on Rutgers and they
delivered a 38-7 win for us. Rutgers is off a bye after a huge win over a ranked Pitt tm. After a slow start
Teel found his groove vs one of the top secondaries in the BE throwing for a school record 6 TD’s in the
54-34 win. They now face a team that is all’g 413 ypg at home. Syr is off an upset win over Louisville
28-21. RB Brinkley ran for career high 166 yds vs a UL team that was all’g 75 ypg. Rutgers has the off
(#67-94) and def (#53-96) edges while Syr holds the ST’s edge (#19-64). Rutgers is 10-3 ATS as a DD
favorite and on a 5-0 ATS streak. RU is 5-16 vs Syr S/’87 but has won 4 of the L/5. LY we went against
Syracuse with our College Game of the Year and a desperate USF team gave us an easy 41-10 winner
in the Carrier Dome and now Rutgers is fresh off a bye and in need of a win.

MICHIGAN ST 33 Purdue 23 - Tiller is 7-2 SU vs Mich St but the avg score is just 28-27 with 5 wins by 7
or less. Mich St is 14-2-1 ATS in home finales. LY MSU was +4 at Purdue but won 48-31 but in ‘06 Purdue
pulled the Spartan Stadium upset 17-15 (+2’). MSU hit a 44 yd FG with :07 to beat Wisky 25-24 but didn’t
cover as a 5’ fav (we had a 3H LPS on UW). The Spartans were outrushed 281-25 as Ringer (NCAA’s #2
rusher 1427, 4.5) lost 10 lbs during the week due to a virus and was held to a ssn low 54 yds. MSU is #13
in pass eff D all’g 202 ypg (52%) with a 10-12 ratio. The Boilers are off a wild 48-42 win over Mich in which
they scored the game winner on a hook and lateral with :26 left. PU had 522-300 yd & 25-15 FD edges
as backup QB Siller hit 21-34 for 266 yds & 3 TD in his 1st start. The Boilers are all’g 176 rush ypg (4.5)
and the 42 pts they all’d to the Wolves were aided by 3 drives which started in PU terr and two 1 play TD
drives. These teams are nearly statistically even (MSU #40-49 off, #56-72 D) but one is 8-2 while the other
is 3-6 and Tiller’s retirement party will be in November adn not in December or Jan.

NORTH CAROLINA 30 Georgia Tech 20 - Yellow Jackets are 9-1 SU vs the Tar Heels but LY needed
a FG w/:15 left at home 27-25 (-9’) and the Heels have covered 4 in a row. NC became bowl elig for
the 1st time S/’04 with their win over BC. The Tar Heels are tied for #1 in the NCAA 17 int’s. CB Trimane
Goddard is tied for 4th in the country w/5. RB Draughn has rushed for 402 yards over the L4 gms &
leads NC w/499 yards (4.6). QB Sexton is avg 193 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio. QB Yates did return to
practice (limited) but Sexton will remain the starter. WR Nicks (#1 ACC in rec ypg) has 47 rec (16.6).
LW GT beat FSU 31-28 for the 1st time S/’75 (ending 12 gm losing streak). RB Dwyer (#1 ACC in rush
yds) has 899 (6.5). QB Nesbitt is avg 136 ttl ypg and although GT runs the triple-option, WR Thomas
has 29 rec (18.1). Bkup QB Shaw came into the game for inj’d Nesbitt in 3Q LW (CS). GT is #1 in the
Coastal Div but NC has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #44-58, def #35-61) with a large schedule
edge (#45-92) and is looking to stop GT’s run for the ACC Title game.

WAKE FOREST 20 Virginia 14 - Virginia is 20-1 SU in the series with their last loss in ‘01. The L/4
have been decided by 4 or less. LY Virginia scored a TD with 2:18 left & Swank missed a 47 yd FG
with :02 left. Groh was the HC at WF from 1981-’86 and is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs them. Under Grobe,
WF is 11-14 in Nov w/3 bowl berths. WF has 3 of the remaining 4 gms at home and needs 1 more win
to become bowl elig. WF is 6-16 as a HF under Grobe and they have just 5 offensive TD’s in 5 ACC
games TY. They all’d Duke to comeback from a 19-7 deficit to force OT but hung on w/a 28 yd winning
FG. QB Skinnner is avg 197 ypg (63%) with an 8-4 ratio. WR Boldin has 47 rec (11.0). WF once again
was w/o K Swank (CS). UVA had its 4 gm winning streak end LW allowing Miami to comeback & force
OT & after UM scored, UVA fmbl’d on its 1st play in OT. QB Verica is avg 190 ypg (67%) with a 6-9
ratio. RB Peerman has 619 rush yds (5.6). Both teams are looking to get back into the ACC Title race
as they are both #3 in their division.

DUKE 28 NC State 20 - NCSt has won 10 in a row SU in the series but they last met in 2003 (NCSt
28-21, -20’ A). Since 1994 (their last bowl appearance), Duke is 4-35 in November & Cutcliffe is 8-14
w/3 bowl berths as HC. Two additional wins would make them bowl elig for only the 3rd time S/’60. QB
Lewis is avg 194 ypg (59%) with a 12-5 ratio. WR Riley has 44 rec (11.1). LW Duke missed a FG w/:02
in regulation to force OT & after a WF FG, Duke was int’d & lost 33-30. It all comes down to this for NCSt
1 more loss, and the chance at a bowl game goes away. QB Wilson is avg 150 ypg (57%) with an 8-1
ratio. RB Brown has rushed for 431 yds (4.2) & has 19 rec (11.5). NCSt has covered 3 straight and 5 of
6. Both teams are last in their div but Duke seems to have a little more momentum as they are looking
for their 1st winning season S/’94 while NCSt continues to struggle and stays home one more year.

TEXAS TECH 38 Oklahoma St 31 - LY former RB Savage, RB Hunter & QB Robinson all eclipsed 100
rush yds (1st time in OSU history in single gm). TT did have 718 yds in the 49-45 road loss (-6).The HT
has won 6 in a row SU (4-2 ATS). OSU is 5-11 ATS in Nov AG’s and TT is 9-0-2 SU at home vs OSU (last
time OSU won was ’44). Red Raiders are 10-4 ATS vs Pokes, but OSU has covered the L3Y. TT is off
the biggest win in school history as they knocked off #1 UT and is 9-0 for the 1st time S/’38. QB Harrell
(#3 all-time NCAA passing ldr) is avg 402 ypg (71%) with a 30-5 ratio. His #1 target WR Crabtree has
70 rec (13.2) & LW caught an amazing GW 28 yd TD w/:01 left. OSU comes in at 8-1 SU & is the only
perfect ATS tm in ‘08 after its dismantling of ISU LW (outgained them by 320 yds). QB Robinson is avg
231 ypg (69%) with a 20-5 ratio. RB Hunter leads all B12 backs with 1,220 yds (6.7) & WR Bryant (60
rec, 17.6) rounds out the OSU “Big 3.” OSU is ranked #25 in our pass eff D all’g 241 ypg (60%) with a
15-11 ratio as Tech comes in at #21 (251 ypg, 63%, 11-15). Both offenses are potent (TT #2-8) and TT
has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead to OU & Leach is 45-10 SU & 29-19 ATS in Lubbock.

SOUTH CAROLINA 30 Arkansas 13 - Ark RB McFadden tied an SEC record with 321 rush yds &
Jones also had a career high 166 rush yds in LY’s 48-36 win (-6) at home. Ark is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS
vs SC with their avg win by 13 ppg but the favorite is 11-3 ATS. This is SCar’s home finale and though
they already clinched their 6th win of the season with a 27-6 win over Tenn LW, they will want insurance
after being left out of the bowls at 6-6 LY. Spurrier nabbed DC Ellis Johnson away from Petrino in the
offssn and SC now has our #7 overall D (Ark #64). SC QB Garcia (131 ypg, 58%, 5-3 ratio) has started
the L/2 gms, but suffered a knee inj LW (CS) and Smelley (161 ypg, 60%, 10-9 ratio) finished the gm.
Arkansas is off an upset of previously undefeated #19 Tulsa that gave us a 3H LPS Winner. QB Dick
threw for a career high 385 yds LW (2nd most in Ark history) and is avg 241 ypg (57%) with a 9-11
ratio. RB Smith has 987 rush (5.3). This is a must-win for Ark if they want to go to a bowl, and the Hogs
have covered their L/2 as an AD, but SC is 7-2 as an SEC favorite. Spurrier has a return to the Swamp
on deck but gets postseason insurance.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

SOUTH CAROLINA 30 Arkansas 13 - Ark RB McFadden tied an SEC record with 321 rush yds &
Jones also had a career high 166 rush yds in LY’s 48-36 win (-6) at home. Ark is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS
vs SC with their avg win by 13 ppg but the favorite is 11-3 ATS. This is SCar’s home finale and though
they already clinched their 6th win of the season with a 27-6 win over Tenn LW, they will want insurance
after being left out of the bowls at 6-6 LY. Spurrier nabbed DC Ellis Johnson away from Petrino in the
offssn and SC now has our #7 overall D (Ark #64). SC QB Garcia (131 ypg, 58%, 5-3 ratio) has started
the L/2 gms, but suffered a knee inj LW (CS) and Smelley (161 ypg, 60%, 10-9 ratio) finished the gm.
Arkansas is off an upset of previously undefeated #19 Tulsa that gave us a 3H LPS Winner. QB Dick
threw for a career high 385 yds LW (2nd most in Ark history) and is avg 241 ypg (57%) with a 9-11
ratio. RB Smith has 987 rush (5.3). This is a must-win for Ark if they want to go to a bowl, and the Hogs
have covered their L/2 as an AD, but SC is 7-2 as an SEC favorite. Spurrier has a return to the Swamp
on deck but gets postseason insurance.

Georgia 27 KENTUCKY 14 - LY UGA held UK to 29 yds rushing, the lowest output by an SEC opp in
Richt’s career and the Dogs won 24-13 (-7) as a 3H LPS for us with UK’s 13 pts and 297 yds their lowest
of the ssn. UGA is 5-1 ATS in the series but the home team is 4-1 ATS. In ‘06 here, UK upset GA for
the first time S/‘96 and UK is 8-4 ATS as a HD. UGA is off a humiliating 49-10 loss to FL which pushed
them out of the SEC race and was the most lopsided loss of the Richt era. UGA has a huge edge on
off (#10-84) as QB Stafford is avg 243 ypg (62%) with a 12-5 ratio and RB Moreno has 925 yds (6.2).
Despite banged up lines on both sides of the ball, UK QB Cobb made his first start at QB LW in UK’s 1
pt win over Miss St (thanks to a blk’d xp and a missed 27 yd FG) which clinched UK’s 3rd straight bowl
bid. Cobb (7 of 13 for 56 yds, 1 int LW) alternated with former starter Hartline (154 ypg, 56% with 8-7
ratio overall) LW. UGA has a smaller edge on def (#11-33). Though UK has the home edge, UGA is off
a loss (1-5 ATS) but has something to prove plus UK is banged up on both sides of the ball losing their
top rusher, top receiver and several defenders to inj’s the last few wks.

Bowling Green 30 OHIO 23 - BG had won 5 in a row in the series by an avg of 38-12 and had won 8
in a row ATS heading into ‘07. LY BG (-7) at home trailed 21-20 and had the ball but was int’d and ret’d
for a TD in a 38-27 OU win. Both tms were outgained by Kent St but won, Ohio 26-19, as a 1 pt AF and
BG 45-30 as a 6 pt HF. Both played Wyoming on the road, Ohio lost 21-20 (+12’), while BG won 45-16
(-3). While Ohio has a slight D edge (#79-85), BG has the off edge (#69-102) despite playing the tougher
sked (#75-90). Ohio is off two str Tues losses and had 4 extra days to recover with a bye on deck. The
Bobcats are led by QB Jackson who is avg 205 ypg (60%) with an 11-9 ratio and he is the # 3 rusher
with 206 (2.7). Ohio lost their top rusher for the year (Harden, 454, 5-4) and RB Garrett, their top active
rusher, has just 280 (3.5). BG QB Sheehan is avg 214 ypg (66%) with a 14-7 ratio and RB Turner leads
with 355 (4.8). The Bobcats have turned the ball over 26x and have a -9 TO margin, while BG has just
16 TO and a -1 TO margin. BG has covered 8 str reg ssn AG’s and continues that trend here.

BYU 48 San Diego St 20 - BYU has delivered numerous 5H Winners incl ‘89 as the Coll GOY (-3) over
Air Force. Since SDSt upset BYU in ‘05 the Cougs have won the L/2 by an avg of 48-22 and BOTH were
LPS Winners (4H LY). BYU is 8-2 SU/ATS (series) winning by an avg of 35-18. SDSt lost to fellow MWC
bottom dweller WY 35-10 LW, being outgained 544-328. QB Lindley put up his best stats since ret’g
from inj (311 yd) and is now avg 262 ypg (55%) with an 11-6 ratio in 7 full gms he’s ply’d. His fav target,
Brown, was limited LW (CS) which caused some disruption. New st’g RB Henderson (177 yd 2W ago)
was the top rusher with just 27 yd & the inj-riddled DL lost another st’r (CS). Two wks ago, BYU was in
a shootout with LV, winning by 7. LW it was much of the same vs CSU. Despite BYU having a 255-176
yd edge at half, it was tied at 21. BYU went up for good w/:22 left and on the day had 32-19 FD & 551-
401 yd edges. QB Hall (315 ypg, 70%, 29-7 ratio) has thrown for 1,449 yds (73%) with a 19-1 ratio at
home TY. While BYU is on an 0-5 ATS slide, this is their home finale and they get a warm weather team
in the cold and altitude. Will the Cougs deliver another GOY Winner here?

BOISE ST 41 Utah St 6 - BSU leads the series 10-4 SU (8-1 ATS) & has won the L/7 SU by an avg of
27 ppg. The Broncos are on an 8-0 ATS run in the series winning the L/5 by an avg of 34 ppg. Since
becoming WAC foes in ‘05, BSU has outscored USU by 39 ppg & has outgained the Aggies by 229 ypg.
USU QB Borel is avg 150 ypg (56%) with an 11-6 ratio & also leads the team with 511 yds rush. He
racked up 310 ttl yds (223 pass, 87 rush) in LW’s win over Hawaii. However, the Aggies need to shore up
their D (#106 in the NCAA) which is all’g 432 ypg. In ‘06 when Boise was also in position for a possible
BCS appearance, the Broncos were 22 & 37 pt fav in Nov HG’s & covered both. BSU is 29-8 ATS in
Nov & is on an 9-0 ATS run in Nov HG’s. Boise has decisive edges on off (#31-113), def (#12-95) & ST
(#22-85). The Broncos feature the #16 pass off in the NCAA avg 275 ypg, led by QB Moore who is avg
260 ypg (70%) with an 18-5 ratio. BSU also boasts the NCAA’s #2 scoring D at 9.9 ppg & has held 6
of its 8 opp to under 7 pts or less! LW BSU shutout NMSt 49-0, holding the Aggies’ “Air Raid” offense
to 150 ttl yds while posting 6 sks and look for the big win to impress pollsters.

Oklahoma 54 TEXAS A&M 30 - OU is 8-1 SU vs A&M with their only loss in ‘02. OU has not had
success at Kyle Field as they are 3-6 SU & 0-7 ATS with their largest SU win by 7. HT is 12-2 ATS &
A&M is 3-0-1 ATS in home finales (upset #13 Tex LY). LY OU did dominate leading 42-7 before all’g a
garbage TD. A&M is 6-2-1 as a B12 HD & 6-1 ATS at home vs ranked foes. Aggies (3 str covers) took
care of CU LW holding the Buffs to 17 pts & 392 yds (both B12 D best TY). QB Johnson is avg 219
ypg (63%) with an 18-4 ratio. OU (8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS) beat up NU & has scored a comb 104 pts in the
1H the L/2. QB Bradford is avg 343 ypg (68%) with a 34-6 ratio. Sooners have the off (#1-48) & huge
def (#20-97) edges as the Aggies rank #92 in our pass eff D all’g 225 ypg (65%) with a 9-8 ratio. OU D
has all’d 474 ypg the L/4W as they miss LB Reynolds (torn ACL), but they have outscored non-ranked
foes by 35 ppg. OU is 3-0 TY as a “true” AF, but in the L/4 visits to A&M they have come in ranked #1,
#1, #2 & #18 and dropped all ATS incl an outright upset in ‘02 (OU #1) as A&M won another Big Dog
POW. With Texas falling LW, OU controls its own destiny with TT still ahead.

RICE 34 Army 24 - In ‘06 Army was outFD’d 25-17 & outgained 457-302 & was -4 in TO’s in a 48-14
outright upset loss at home (-11). Army does have a large military presence here in Texas and has
won 7 in a row ATS in Texas incl 2 near upsets of A&M and an upset of Baylor. Army is off a 16-7 (+7’)
loss vs Air Force but is on a 5-1 ATS run. The Black Knights option rushing attack is led by FB Mooney
with 966 yds (5.8) and QB Bowden with 456 (3.2). Bowden has only attempted 41 passes (37%, 22.4
ypg, 2-2 ratio) in 9 gms. Rice is off a 49-44 win at UTEP and is now bowl eligible. Rice continues to put
up pts avg 44 in CUSA play. QB Clement is avg 304 ypg (66%) with a 29-6 ratio. WR Dillard is an AA
candidate with 949 yds and 15 TD’s, which is tied for #3 in the NCAA. This matchup provides some
intrigue as you have the high-flying offense of Rice vs the ball control option attack of Army and neither
D has seen an offense comparable to what they will see this week.

COLORADO 26 Iowa St 20 - LY ISU matched their biggest comeback win in school history as they were
down 21-0 at HT before scoring 31 unanswered. HT is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. CU hasn’t dropped B2B to ISU
S/’82 & ‘83 & is 7-4 as a HF. The Buffs LW dropped their 6th str ATS & are on a 7-17 ATS B12 run (7-14 ATS
under Hawkins vs B12). The QB carousel continues as Hansen & Hawkins (HC son) have comb’d for just
164 ypg (57%) with a 12-10 ratio as neither looks comfortable running the offense. In B12 play CU is avg
just 12 ppg & 289 ypg. ISU dropped its 7th straight (4th ATS) LW at the hands of OSU (outgained by 320
yds) & is not bowl eligible for the 3rd straight yr. QB Arnaud is avg 201 ypg (60%) with a 10-6 ratio. Both off’s
(CU #81-104) have been non-existent, but CU has the def (#47-106) edge & has played the stronger sked
(#22-44). After a 3-0 start, this is a must win if CU wants a chance at a bowl but ISU LY reeled off 4 straight
covers after being eliminated from a bowl showing that Chizik’s bunch doesn’t pack it in.

SMU 34 Memphis 27 - LY Memphis won a 3OT thriller 55-52 as the tms piled up over 1,100 yds in Bennett’s
final gm as SMU’s HC. Both tms are off a bye and UM has a bye on deck. The Tigers are essentially down
to 1 QB after losing true Fr Tyler Bass (knee) 2 wks ago and previously losing starter Hall (thumb) and
backup Hudgens (knee). Jr Brett Toney will start his 2nd consecutive gm and has thrown for 190 yds (61%)
with a 1-1 ratio. RB Steele has 879 yds (5.9) and will see some direct snaps in their version of the “Wildcat.”
SMU has yet to record a IA win but was coming off a nice 3-0-1 ATS run before getting dominated by Navy
last time out. The Mustangs had no answer for the option in their 34-7 loss and were outgained 404-173
with Navy not even attempting a pass. SMU’s offense struggled in the wind and rain and QB Mitchell only
threw for 157 yds. Mitchell is avg 270 ypg (59%) with a 22-19 ratio and has 2 prolific WR’s in Sanders (62,
13.7) and Robinson (53, 18.9). The dog is an outstanding 11-1 ATS in the series and SMU is 2-0 as a conf
HD TY so expect the Mustangs to cover and maybe even get their 1st IA win.

MISSOURI 51 Kansas St 23 - KSU had won 13 in a row but Mizzou has captured the L/2 (avg win by 23
ppg) & the last time here they led 41-14 (-14). LY KSU did have a 248-145 yd edge at HT but could not
stop MO in the 2H (trailed 49-25). MO is 9-4 ATS in home finales & the HT is 12-6 ATS. Mizzou escaped
BU LW, but did lead 21-7 at HT. QB Daniel is avg 333 ypg (77%) with a 26-8 ratio. WR Maclin (LY’s gm had
360 all-purpose yds, MO record) has 63 rec (13.2). KSU was hammered LW vs in-state rival KU (down
31-0 at HT), but is 2-0 ATS after a KU loss in B12 play. Prince is 6-2 as an AD. QB Freeman is avg 270 ypg
(61%) with a 15-8 ratio. Both offenses can move the ball (MO#7 KSU#27) with MO having the def (#39-86)
edge while KSU comes in with the better ST (#5-41). KSU is ranked #57 in our pass eff def all’g 235 ypg
(59%) with an 18-5 ratio while MO comes in at #88 (272 ypg, 63%, 17-8 ratio). KSU is two wins away from
a bowl slot & will most likely have a better chance in their 2 HG’s left (Neb, ISU). Mizzou controls its own
destiny in the B12 North & Pinkel will not look past anyone, especially with a near loss LW.

FLORIDA ST 34 Clemson 17 - This is the 1st time in 10 yrs that Bobby won’t be coaching against
his son, Tommy, which adds some motivation. CU is on a 4-1 SU run vs FSU but the HT is 6-2 SU. LY
Clemson held FSU to only one 1D & 62 yds in the 1H at home and won 24-18 on a Mon Nite ssn opener
and they upset #9 Fla St in ‘06 here. LW CU beat BC for the 1st time S/’58 (27-21) and RB Spiller, who
returned from a hamstring inj, had 242 all-purp yds incl 105 rec (CU record by a RB).CU snapped a
3 gm ACC losing streak & gave interim coach Swinney his 1st win. RB Davis has rushed for 478 yds
(5.1) and Spiller has 369 (6.6). QB Harper is avg 193 ypg (62%) with a 7-11 ratio. LW FSU lost for the
1st time S/’75 vs GT & ended its 4 game winning streak. QB Ponder is avg 191 ttl ypg. WR Carr has 24
rec (15.8) and RB Smith has 575 rush yd (4.9). This will be an emotional game for Bowden coaching
against the school that fired his son & FSU will be focused to regain #1 spot in the Atlantic Div. We won
with FSU as our Sept GOM, will we use them as our 2008 GOY?

EAST CAROLINA 24 Marshall 20 - The Pirates have revenge on their minds as LY Marshall kept EC from
winning the CUSA East with a 26-7 win with a 477-259 yd edge. This game is shaping up as a possible CUSA
East Champ game as both have one conf loss (EC played UCF Sun nite). The Herd has extra rest after a win
over Houston 37-23 last Tues. MU was outgained by the Cougars 423-406, but most of UH’s yds came after
MU was up 3 scores. MU finally got their offense on track as the 37 pts scored was more than the Herd had
scored the previous 3 comb (34). MU rushed for 249 yds (4.6) led by RB Marshall who had 102 (6.8) and he
now has 618 (4.2) on the yr. QB Cann is avg 189 ypg (52%) with a 10-8 ratio and needs to eliminate mistakes
as the Herd is 3-0 TY when he doesn’t throw a pick. EC has gone to a 2 QB system as Pinkney has started
all 7 gms and is avg 178 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio, but has 4 fmbl’s. Kass (56 ypg, 53%, 2-1) came on in
relief 2W ago vs Memphis and completed 9-17 for 167 and two 2H scores. The Pirates are on a 1-4 ATS run,
so we like the Herd to stay within the number as they just may be the better team at this point.

NEBRASKA 37 Kansas 27 - NU has won 19 in a row SU at home vs KU and the Huskers had won an
NCAA record 88 games in the series but have dropped two of the L/3. LY the 76 pts that NU allowed
was the most ever by an opp in school history. KU is 6-18 SU & 4-20 ATS away from Lawrence in Nov
& just 9-23 ATS vs NU. Last 2Y KU has avg 30 ppg on the road but 46 ppg at home. KU got back on
track LW vs in-state rival KSU scoring a ssn high 52 pts. QB Reesing is avg 293 ypg (68%) with a 20-9
ratio. NU was affected by 4 TO LW & trailed OU 42-7 mid-2Q. QB Ganz is avg 279 ypg (69%) with a 16-8
ratio. NU is ranked #44 in our pass eff def allowing 229 ypg (61%) with a 12-6 ratio while KU comes in
at #24 (271 ypg, 59%, 16-12). NU stands at 5-4 and would like nothing more than to gain revenge from
LY’s embarrassment and become bowl eligible.

Penn St 31 IOWA 17 - LY PSU dominated 27-7 with 26-8 FD & 489-194 yd edges. The visitor is 12-4 SU
in the series but Ferentz is 5-2 SU winning the L/2 at home (‘03 last time here). A well timed bye for the
B10 leading Lions who are off a 13-6 win over OSU, their 1st win in Columbus S/’78. QB Clark (conc)
was KO’d vs OSU but is expected to play & he avg 184 ypg (63%) with an 11-2 ratio. RB Royster has
970 yd (7.2). Lions allow 99 rush ypg (2.9) & held OSU’s Wells to 55 yds (2.5). Iowa rallied from a 24-9
4Q deficit but lost their 9th in a row by 3 or less pts (3 TY) as the Illini hit a 46 yd FG with :24 left for
the 27-24 win. Greene (#3 NCAA 1257, 6.4) is the only RB in the country to have 100 yds in all 9 gms
TY despite being hampered by ankle inj LW. Hawks allow 101 rush ypg (3.2) and are #17 in pass eff D
(201, 55%, 6-16 ratio). The Lions stay in the title hunt with their first win in Iowa City S/’99.

Notre Dame 27 BOSTON COLL 23 - ND hasn’t won in Chestnut Hill S/‘98 & has lost L/5 (dog is 4-0 ATS)
in this Catholic school rivalry. BC has a 22 gm win streak in non-conf games. The Irish blew a 14 pt 3Q lead
LW in a 36-33 4OT loss to Pitt in which all of the OT pts were scored by the K’s (ND missed a 38 yd’r). QB
Clausen avg 263 ypg (60%) with an 18-9 ratio. PS#2 WR Floyd (41, 15.4) resets the Irish’s frosh receiving
records on a weekly basis. Irish are #14 in pass eff D (207, 53%, 8-10 ratio). BC rallied from a 17-0 HT
deficit thanks to a blk’d punt and 2 int’s but ultimately were upset by Clemson 27-21 as they were outgained
(339-236) & outFD’d (16-11) and missed 2 FG’s. QB Crane (#98 NCAA pass eff) is struggling avg 178 ypg
(56%) with an 8-12 ratio. Eagles are #54 in pass eff D allowing 169 ypg (58%) with a 5-14 ratio. Irish has
big edges all around (#36-63 off, #17-41 D & #38-99 ST’s) and break two big streaks.

TENNESSEE 35 Wyoming 0 - UT is 15-1 SU in HC games with the avg win by 25 ppg and in 2 meetings
with Wyoming has won by an avg of 45-12 (last met ‘02). UT has a bye on deck and LY whipped ULL
59-7 in a late ssn non-conf gm. Two coaches on the hotseat but WY HC Glenn is off a win over SDSt
with an important Thurs Nite gm on deck and is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS vs the SEC. Fulmer is off a loss to
SC which put their SEC record below .500 for the first time in his tenure and now they must win out to
ensure a 6-6 ssn. UT is #18 in our pass D rankings and is one of the nation’s leaders in int with 15 led
by AA-caliber SS Berry. In fact, UT has a large edge on D (#9-75) and WY’s new starter Stutzriem (hit
6-10 for 166 with a 1-0 ratio but 0 att in 2H) should have a tough time in his 1st road start in Knoxville.
WY’s top rusher is Moore (1036, 5.7). UT’s off has also struggled (#75) and the Vols only avg 105 ypg
rush (3.4) with QB Stephens avg 136 ypg (50%) with a 4-1 ratio and he was relieved by early ssn starter
Crompton LW (139 ypg, 53%, 2-4 ratio). The OL all’d 6 sks LW vs SC (only 4 in all of ‘07). The Vols are
6-2-1 ATS as a HF but WY finally broke an 0-15-1 ATS losing streak with their win LW. The Vols are trying
to save Fulmer’s job, so they will have to put up big numbers here, but even that may not be enough.

Alabama 24 LSU 20 - Saban brings his #1 ranked Tide team to LSU where he went 48-16 as a HC
from ‘00-‘04.In LY’s inaugural “Saban Bowl,” LSU outgained UA 475-254 but only won 41-34 due to 3
int’s by QB Flynn. Alabama was up by 7 late but gave up a TD on 4th down and then fumbled and LSU
recovered it at the 3 which set up the game winning TD on the road. In the offssn, Miles told fans “not
to make too much of it [LSU’s win over Bama] as it seems like a lot of teams in Louisiana beat that
team” referring to the Tide’s loss to ULM LY. The visitor is 8-2-2 ATS. LSU hasn’t been a HD since they
lost to #10 AL 31-0 in ‘02. The Tide has already covered all 4 of their road gms TY by an avg of 23 ppg.
LSU has suffered two blowout losses already to SEC tms (FL & UGA) and though not many players
remain that Saban recruited, the Tigers should be well-prepared to face their former coach. Both are
off rather easy non-conf wins and may have snuck in some extra prep for this gm. LSU QB Lee has
avg 178 ypg (56%) with a 12-10 ratio and 3 IR TD’s in the L2W (5 TY). He normally shares snaps with
Hatch (missed LW, CS). But Miles burned the RS on True Frosh Jefferson (PS#9) LW. Tide QB Wilson
is avg just 157 ypg (61%) with an 8-4 ratio. Two of the SEC’s top RB’s square off in LSU’s Scott (889,
6.7) and AL’s Coffee (894, 6.6). AL has the BCS Champ on the line while LSU can play more loose with
nothing left to lose, but the Tide has dominated their most difficult opp’s TY.

OREGON 38 Stanford 17 - Huge gm as far as bowl hopes are concerned for the Cardinal as they are
one win away from eligibility after their most lopsided win in 59 yrs vs the Cougars LW on the farm (5th
consec hm win). The ground gm has been the bread & butter for their resurgence in ‘08 as they are
avg 209 ypg TY (2nd only in the P10 to UO who is paving the way with 271 ypg). The Ducks are off
a sloppy loss in Berkeley (rainy conditions) as they failed to capitalize on 5 Cal TO’s in the 10 pt loss.
They have owned the Cardinal of late winning the last 6 SU & ATS (25 pt avg win) including a 55-31
(-18’) smashing LY, a gm where SU actually led 31-21 late in the 2Q. These 2 programs have averaged
67 ppg in their L/13 matchups. While SU pulled the upset here in ‘01, the Ducks have gone 10-3 ATS
as conf HF and have won their 3 recent Eugene matchups by a 41-8 margin

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

AIR FORCE 31 Colorado St 21 - The SU winner has won by an avg of 17 ppg with only 1 gm decided
by under 10 pts the L/5 but the dog is 12-5-1 ATS. LY AF (+3) got its first win at Hughes Stadium S/‘97,
45-21. CSU is off a heartbreaker vs BYU as they got a 14 pt swing on the 1st series and despite being
outgained 255-176, were tied at half. In the 2H, CSU’s D could not stop BYU as they scored w/:22
left for the 45-42 final. RB Johnson (848 rush yd, 4.7) became the 1st 100 yd rusher BYU all’d TY. QB
Farris is avg 217 ypg (63%) with a 12-7 ratio (6-0 L/2) & WR Greer (45 rec, 17.3), Morton (32, 16.8)
and TE Sperry (33, 12.4) account for all of CSU’s TD rec’s TY. LW P/PK Harrison played a large role
in AF’s 16-7 win over Army as he hit 3 FG’s & avg 41 ypp. AF was outgained 250-172 incl just 142
yd rush. QB Jefferson had his most pass att in a gm (8) but only connected on 3, and on the yr has
thrown for 284 ttl yds (55%) with a 2-1 ratio. FB Newell has gained more than half (241) of his ttl yds
(409) in the L/3 and is the #2 rusher behind Lumpkin (417, 3.9). AF is 5-1 ATS as a HF under Calhoun
while CSU is 0-2 as an AD TY & look for the Falcons to add to their win streak here.

Oregon St 23 UCLA 20 - The Beavers held off a late ASU charge in Corvallis LW moving their record to
16-2 SU (14-4 ATS) after wk 5 over the past 3 ssns but may have to use bkup QB Canfield (218 yds, 68%,
2-1 ratio vs ASU) here after Moevao (228, 63%, 14-8) went down early 2Q w/a shldr inj (CS). OSU has been
impressive as a conf AF going 7-2 ATS but their offense is built for speedy turf surfaces, so it’s no surprise
that they have dropped 5 in a row ATS (1-4 SU) on grass. Despite his success in the P10, it’s astonishing
that Mike Riley has never beaten UCLA as he is 0-9 all-time (DC w/USC in 4 of those losses). LY OSU
was poised to end that streak leading 14-6 at half w/a 172-109 yd edge but fmbl’d THREE straight KR’s
& lost at hm 40-14 (-2’). UCLA returns from a bye with questions at QB as Craft threw 4 int’s (2 returned
for TD’s) in the 21 pt loss to Cal & may have to battle with rFr Forcier here. Even with their inconsistency
over the past few ssns, UCLA is 17-3 ATS off a SU loss & has covered 10 of their L/11 as a HD. A loss
here would likely end any chances of Neuheisel making a bowl in his 1st yr with the Bruins.

UCF 24 S Mississippi 17 - LY the Knights used 4 TO’s to beat SM for the 1st time in their 3 matchups,
34-17 in a road upset (+3). UCF is 8-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in Bright House Stadium. UCF is off a short rest
week after playing their 2nd Sun night gm in a row (vs E Carolina LW) and needs a win to have any shot at
a bowl. The Knights continue to struggle offensively, avg just 18 ppg. True frosh QB Calabrese (PS#78) has
taken over as the starter but is avg just 87 ypg (42%) with a 3-3 ratio. Ldg rusher Weaver has just 348 yds
(3.4) so PS#166 true Fr Harvey (144, 3.4) has started to get more carries. WR Watters leads with 386 (14.3).
SMiss is off a dominating 70-14 HC win over UAB and can still avoid their 1st losing season S/’93 if they win
out. RFr QB Davis is avg 246 ypg (57%) with a 16-7 ratio. RB Fletcher (1055, 6.5) left last gm (CS) and was
replaced by Harrison who rushed for 137 (6.9) and now has 203 (4.8) on the year. True Fr WR Brown has
lived up to his PS#7 billing with 49 grabs (17.2) and 10 TD’s. Both tms desperately need a win and although
we think UCF is the better team, it’s hard to lay too many points with UCF’s anemic offense.

TEXAS 44 Baylor 20 - McCoy set a single gm record w/6 TD passes the last time UT hosted BU. UT
has won the L/10 by an avg of 49-10 (6-4 ATS). LY BU covered (+26) and trailed just 17-10 late 3Q.
Texas is off what Brown called “maybe the toughest 4 gm stretch in UT history” ending it on a losing
note on the gm’s final play to TT (outgained 579-374). Brown is 15-7 ATS off a SU loss. McCoy is avg
287 ypg (79%) with a 23-5 ratio but looked vulnerable LW vs a stout TT def. BU held their own vs MO
LW (tied 28-28 late w/ball) but fell just short. Bears are on a 2-17 SU & 5-14 ATS B12 run. QB Griffin
is avg 188 ypg (61%) with an 11-1 ratio (1st int came LW after 210 att, broke NCAA record) & is #2
on tm with 587 rush yds (4.5) accounting for 67% of the off. BU is ranked #91 in our pass eff D all’g
246 ypg (65%) with a 14-9 ratio. UT is 5-0 SU & ATS vs non-ranked foes winning by 36 ppg (+176
avg ypg). BU is 0-3 SU & ATS vs ranked foes with an avg loss by 23 ppg (-212 avg ypg). UT has big
off (#5-56) & def (#8-66) edges. The Horns will have no problem here as they still have a lot to play
for (TT still has to face OSU & OU) and extend BU’s bowl drought to 14 straight yrs.

PITTSBURGH 27 Louisville 23 - UL has won 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS) in the series by 14 ppg and has
outgained Pitt by 131 ypg in 3 Big East meetings. LY Pitt was on the road (+9’) and down 24-17 when
they got to the UL 1. They apparently scored a TD but the ref spotted it short and they fmbl’d on the
next play and lost! LW Pitt rebounded from a tough loss to beat ND 36-33 in 4OT, the longest game
in history for both schools. QB Stull (conc, CS) was replaced by Bostick as Pitt overcame a 17-3 1H
deficit for the win. RB McCoy rushed for 169 yds surpassing 1,000 yds for the 2nd straight ssn. He has
5 straight 140+ games. UL is all’g 433 ypg on the road. UL is off a disappointing loss to BE basement
dweller Syr for the 2nd str year. QB Cantwell is avg 197 ypg (58%) with a 12-10 ratio and RB Anderson
is rushing for 105 ypg. Pitt has the off (#30-47) and def (#34-63) edges and has played the tougher
schedule (#36-97). UL has a Fri game vs Cincy next while Pitt has a bye on deck. Wannstedt has his
eyes on the title and catches Louisville off a hangover heading into a tough EOY stretch.

USC 30 California 13 - USC has won 4 in a row SU in the series but the HT is 3-9 ATS overall. The
Bears kept their conf title hopes alive LW vs UO as QB Longshore filled in valiantly in rainy conditions
replacing starter Riley who left w/a concussion (CS). While their off has been hit or miss so far in
‘08, the Cal def has stepped up to pull in a P10-high 22 TO’s incl 7 def/ST TD’s. HC Tedford was 3-0
ATS vs Carroll but has now dropped 3 straight losing by a 27-12 avg incl LY in a consistent rain as
USC got an int at the 17 to hold onto a 24-17 road win (-4). The Trojans are off their 3rd shutout in 4
wks (outscored opp’s 187-10 in L/17Q) & they do not leave the state of CA the rest of the ssn. With
Cal’s success over the past 4 yrs, it’s a bit surprising that they have gone just 2-14 ATS in their final
4 gms of the ssn. While USC will be w/o SS Ellison for the 2nd consec wk here, the def continues to
dominate (our #1 overall ranking) as they have surrendered more than 10 pts just 1 time TY (loss to
OSU) while giving up a ttl of just 13 2H pts the entire ssn (SIX 2H shutouts TY).

SAN JOSE ST 27 Louisiana Tech 10 - SJSt leads the series 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS. The Spartans have won
the L/4 ATS but Tech has won 2 of 3 SU. The HT is 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in this series. LT is just 1-9 SU & 2-8
ATS as a WAC AD. LT QB Jenkins was given the starter’s role 3 wks ago & is avg just 63 ypg (51%) with
a 1-1 ratio but Tech is 2-1 with him as the starter. After backing up Jackson (354 yds, 4.0, 4 TD TY) the
L/2Y, Porter has supplanted him as LT’s top RB & leads the team with 690 yds (5.3) & 5 TD and carved up
Fresno St for 189 yds LW in a 38-35 win. Since arriving at SJSt, HC Tomey is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as a HF
& has not lost a game at SJSt as a fav going 12-0 SU & (10-1-1 ATS). SJSt has been right at home in Nov
HG’s going 11-1-1 ATS (7-6 SU). Eden (63 ypg, 66%, 2-3 ratio), who started the year as the #1 QB before
being replaced by Reed (bruised tailbone, out LW), regained the top spot LW & responded in a big way by
passing for 295 yds & 2 TD’s. SJSt has a large edge on def (#42-80) & the Spartans feature the NCAA’s
#19 D which has recorded 28 sacks & 15 int. The DL was dealt a blow as star DE Ihenacho is out 2-3 wks
with a thumb inj but the unit’s production hasn’t fallen off.

UNLV 27 N Mexico 21 - In ‘01 we used NM at home as our Coll GOY (-2’) and they delivered a 27-17
win. NM has won 4 in a row SU in the series but 4 of 5 have been decided by 4 or less. NM is 7-2 ATS
in the series. In ‘06 here LV was done in by 4 TO’s and lost in OT, 39-36 (+2’). Clayton was KO’d LW vs
TCU (CS) on their opening 3Q series and rFr Clausen QB’d the rest of the gm. He hit 3-9 for 22 yds and
the speedy TCU D sk’d him 3x’s. Remember if Clayton can’t go, LV moved LY’s starter, Dixon, to Saf so
Clausen will most likely get the snaps here. Clayton’s inj will force LV to lean on the run gm that is led by
Summers (only 9 yd LW) who has 624 (4.3) with 7 TD’s. Clayton is the #2 rusher with 161. NM caught Utah
in a clear lookahead LW, only losing 13-10 as 7 pt HD. QB Gruner hit 16-25 for 170, all career highs and
is now avg 88 ypg (59%) with a 3-5 ratio with 287 rush yds (5.4) since taking over as the starter. Despite
the low passing #’s, NM actually has 4 WR’s with more than 20 rec’s led by Williams with 28 (7.4). RB
Ferguson is 2nd in the MWC with 899 yds (4.9) and 12 TD. This gm is huge for both teams’ postseason
possibilities and look for LV to snap the Lobos series-long 4 gm SU win streak.

TROY 34 Wku 20 - WKU gms don’t count in the SBC standings but the Hilltoppers will be excited to play
one of the top SBC tms while Troy has this gm and LSU before facing off with ULL. They are off their first
SBC loss, losing to ULM with ULM scoring a TD w/:34 remaining in the gm. Troy had a chance to win it but
missed 56 yd FG as time expired. New QB Brown is now in his third gm and is avg 288 yds (71%) with a
7-1 ratio. WKU has gone with 2 QB’s but played just Wolke vs NT as he rushed for 190 yds. He is avg 109
ypg in his L/4 sts (49%) with a 4-5 ratio. The Hilltoppers are off a loss to NT 51-40 despite outgaining them
504-387 as NT ret’d an int 97 yds for a TD on the final play. Troy has large edges on off (#53-109), def (#77-
120) and ST’s (#21-72) but motivation will be the question with B2B non-conf gms this late in the yr.

FLORIDA ATL 41 North Texas 20 - LY NT led 20-13 after 3Q’s but had an int, was held to 29 yds
(before final drive) & had a punt blk’d (1st in 33 gms) in the 30-20 loss (NT 466-406 yds). FAU is 4-0
SU & 3-1 ATS in the series with their non-cover by a single point while the visitor is 4-0 ATS. Expect
offensive improvement from FAU as QB Smith is avg 253 ypg (61%) with a 3-6 ratio vs SBC tms TY
and should exploit a NT secondary that is all’g 67% completions (#119 pass eff D). Pierre has rushed
for 129 ypg vs SBC foes (3.8) and will also benefit facing a D all’g 5.5 ypc away from home. NT had
their struggles early but facing SBC opp’s they’ve avg’d 439 ypg. While the D has all’d 461 ypg vs
those opp’s, their offense always makes them a threat to cover the big number. NT got their 1st win
of ssn (vs WKU 51-40) and 1st road win in 22 gms. Vs SBC TY, QB Vizza is avg 311 ypg (64%) with
a 5-7 ratio and WR Fitzgerald has 47 rec (11.4). Add in the fact that FAU is 1-4 as a conf HF and has
a ULL squad on deck who is on top of the SBC standings, don’t expect FAU to get a great deal of
margin as they’ve topped 29 pts once the L/6 gms.

LOUISIANA 47 Utep 44 - While you might think that a SBC school would be thrilled to host a CUSA
squad, the emotional advantage is clearly UTEP’s. The Miners are now 3-5 after losing 49-44 to Rice
and their entire focus is on this gm as they have very difficult road trips to Houston and EC to end
their ssn. UTEP QB Vittatoe has exploded for 280 ypg (58%) with a 17-2 ratio L/5 gms as UTEP has
avg’d 40 ppg. ULL, meanwhile, is leading the SBC standings at 3-0 after their win vs FIU outgaining
them 444-270 with Fenroy breaking 1,000 yds rush for 4th consec ssn. ULL has B2B road gms at
pressn fav FAU and Troy on deck. ULL has the NCAA’s #3 rush offense avg 301 ypg and 6.5 ypc and
now faces a UTEP def which is allowing 5.4 ypc. QB Desormeaux came back LW and is now avg 185
ypg (63%) with an 8-5 ratio. RB Fenroy has 1,051 ttl yds (6.9) and the offense has also exploded for
44 ppg L/6 gms. The contrast in offensive styles should make this a shootout.

FIU 24 Arkansas St 23 - The Red Wolves are 3-0 vs FIU outscoring them on avg 41-18. LY the teams
combined for 3 TD’s in the final 4:45 & ASU kicked a 32 yd FG w/:02 left for the 27-24 home win (-17’) but
ASU did have 351-250 yd edge. ASU is off 35-0 loss to #1 Alabama and was outgained 357-158 (205-91
rush). FIU gave up 49 pts (most pts since L/Nov) in a 49-20 loss to ULL. QB Leonard is avg 193 ypg (53%)
with an 11-4 ratio while FIU QB McCall is avg 135 ypg (51%) with an 8-8 ratio. ASU has the offensive edge
(#85-118) but is 2-5 ATS TY while FIU has played the tougher schedule (#66-102) and is 6-2 ATS.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


4) Angle Plays 27-9 75% L/4Y!



Play on any home team that scored 24 or more but lost their game before the bye.

1998-2008: 17-1 94%


4* Tennessee over CHICAGO - TEN was in a tough situation LW off a big MNF win vs IND & playing on
a short week vs GB off a bye. They now travel for the 1st time in 3 Wks vs a CHI team that spent a lot of
energy to rally & beat DET LW. CHI will be without QB Orton (ankle) for 4 wks after being KO’d late in the
1H LW. TEN is 16-6 ATS vs the NFC. CHI is 1-7 SU & ATS as a non-conf dog. Both teams are designed
to work with a physical DL that brings pressure & can stop the run but TEN is the only one that can do
both. TEN is allowing 92 ypg (3.8) rushing & the DL has 19.5 of their 22 sacks while CHI is allowing 82
ypg (3.5) but only has 10.5 of the teams 16 sacks. This allows TEN’s swift LB unit to drop into coverage
& the #12 pass defense has a solid 4-13 TD/Int with a 6.0 ypa (62.3 QBR). CHI’s #30 pass defense took
another blow with FS Brown (calf) leaving LW’s game & they have a decent 9-12 ratio (6.3 ypa) & 72.7
QBR. We have won three 4H Key Selections with TEN TY & like Collins who has many more live snaps
TY than Grossman. TEN’s RB tandem of White & Johnson who have combined for 140 ypg (4.6) and will
wear down the CHI defense for the win. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 CHICAGO 7

3* MIAMI over Seattle - This is the 2nd time in 4 Wks that SEA has to take a very long flight out to
Florida. They got the backdoor cover vs TB by 1/2 pt on SNF on a TD drive with 1:55 left despite being
outFD 22-7 & outgained 204-176. SEA also has a HG vs ARZ on deck while MIA starts a 3 game
home stand. SEA is 5-14 ATS in EST. MIA is 4-19 ATS as a HF. MIA was in a tough spot LW off a big
win vs BUF & travelling to DEN who was coming in off a bye. MIA forced 3 TO’s which they turned
into 13 pts & while they only outgained DEN by 22 yds they had a 13:04 TOP edge. MIA gets a much
better matchup here vs a depleted SEA team that lost its best pass rusher in DE Kerney (shoulder)
& could be without MLB Tatupu (groin) as well. SEA has only won the yardage battle once TY (STL
Wk 3) & minus that game they have been outgained 393-233. While the Wild Cat offense has fizzled
lately Pennington has passed for 271 ypg (71%) with a 9-3 ratio & 9.1 ypa the L6 games (5-1 ATS) &
faces SEA’s #31 pass def with a 13-3 ratio. We’ll side with a vastly healthier MIA team (only 1 player
listed as out LW) vs a SEA team that was without 6 starters LW. FORECAST: MIAMI 24 Seattle 9


2* DETROIT (+) over Jacksonville - This year’s JAX team is clearly not the same as the 2007 version
as inj’s on the OL & 3 new starters on the DL have been tough to deal with. LY JAX avg’d 139 ypg
(4.4) rushing thru their 1st 8 games vs 110 ypg (4.0) TY. LY thru 8 games JAX defense had 20 sacks
& posted an 8-8 ratio but they traded DT Stroud & are going with 2 rookie DE’s & have dropped to just
11 sacks & a 14-7 ratio. They come in off 2 bad losses to CLE & CIN & allowed CIN to top 300 yds for
just the 2nd time TY. JAX is now 5-15 ATS as an AF & face a DET team that is now the lone winless
team in the NFL. DET blew a 10 pt lead at CHI LW despite KO Orton at the end of the 1H which will
only tighten their focus here. DET won the yardage battle for the 1st time TY & Orlovsky had a decent
game with 292 yds (60%) with a 2-2 ratio but they couldn’t do anything on the ground as they were
outrushed 154 (5.1) to 53 (2.0). 0-8 HD’s are 7-3 ATS & we’ll side with a DET team that has covered
3 of the its last 4 that is becoming increasingly desperate in a higher scoring game as the Ugly Dog
Play which is now 23-10 (70%). FORECAST: DETROIT 24 Jacksonville 23

2* Carolina over OAKLAND - This is the 1st time since 1999 that CAR is on the road after their bye
(3-0 ATS as fav) but they travelled to SD in Wk 1. The bye was good for CAR as they will finally have
their starting OL together. Over the first 8 games the starting 5 has played for less than 2Q together.
This is a great matchup for CAR who has the #13 & #9 units (+1 TO) the L4W vs the Raiders #31
& #31 units (0 TO’s). OAK’s #18 pass def is very misleading (11-7 ratio) as they allow 157 ypg (4.5)
rushing which is a bad matchup vs a CAR team that is built for power rushing (#9 L4W). OAK was
in a good situation LW vs a young QB in his 2nd straight road game coming cross country with a
defense with only 1 solid playmaker in DE Abraham (10 sacks). They went on to get shutout 24-0 &
were outgained 453-77 their lowest offensive total since 1961. OAK has been outscored by an avg of
25-7 under interim HC Cable with the only win being vs an overrated NYJ team coming cross country.
They now face a rested & more explosive CAR team playing with confidence that only has DET on
deck & the road team is the play here. FORECAST: Carolina 31 OAKLAND 14


Denver at CLEVELAND - Thursday - These teams were famous for their playoff games in the late 80’s &
early 90’s. DEN beat CLE 17-7 as a 4 pt AF in the last meeting back in 2006. CLE couldn’t hold onto a 27-13
lead LW & let BAL score 24 unanswered pts with Edwards dropping a perfectly thrown game changing pass.
DEN was outFD 11-3 & outgained 196-99 at the end of the 1H vs MIA & now have to travel on a short week.
With both teams off embarrassing losses which coaching staff will have their team ready on a short week.

NEW ENGLAND 24 Buffalo 16 - NE is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS vs BUF. The Bills are a decent situation vs a
NE team off 3 prime time games in 4 Wks & their biggest non-div rival in IND LW (4-1 ATS afterwards).
NE has the #9 & #11 units (+5 TO’s) vs BUF’s #20 & #17 units (-6 TO’s) the L4W. NE has faced 6
straight teams ranked 19th or lower on defense (inc IND) & have a 151 (4.4) to 93 (3.8) rush edge
prior to SNF. Cassel isn’t putting up great numbers but is improving despite an OL that is 29th in sacks
allowed. BUF found themselves down 13-7 at the half LW after Edwards was int’d & the ball was ret’d
95 yds for a 14 pt swing. From there the Jets had a 249-188 yd edge, with the Bills SOD on the Jets
8, & held them to 3 offensive pts the rest of the day. If NE lost LW vs IND then the AFC East is in a 3
way tie. If they won they will be a full game up on the Jets. The NE coaching staff is used to preparing
on a short week. We’ll side with NE to give BUF its 3rd straight div loss here.

New Orleans 34 ATLANTA 24 - NO has won the L4 meetings SU & are 6-2 ATS vs ATL. NO has the
#3 & #16 units (-2 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #15 units (-1 TO’s). LY NO came in with a very aggressive
gameplan & won 34-14 as a 3.5 pt AF. NO had 23-13 FD, 473-323 yd & 10:54 TOP edges. Brees has
torched the Falcons avg 272 ypg (68%) with a 7-1 ratio with the Saints. While RB Deuce & both starting
DE’s have been named in the Starcaps incident they are unlikely to be suspended here. Ryan is 3-0 SU &
ATS at home TY avg 218 ypg (71%) with a 3-0 ratio & impressive 10.7 ypa. ATL sets defenses up with the
run (163 ypg 4.7) & hits WR White (16 rec 17.8 at home) for the big play. ATL humiliated OAK LW with 20-0
FD & 309-(-2) yd edges at the end of the 1H with a 24-0 lead. They now find themselves vs matching up vs
a NO team that has won the yardage battle in 6 of 8 games (427-311) with one game being in London in
a win over SD. LW’s domination of the Raiders give us some line value here & we’ll side with a desperate
NO team getting some points off a bye that should have all of Brees weapons 100% here.

NY JETS 27 St Louis 23 - This is a flat spot for both teams who are between division games. The Jets
travel to NE for a Thur Night game & STL has a road game vs SF on deck. STL now has 4 games under
Haslett & has the #27 & #30 units (+4 TO’s) while the Jets who have the #15 & #4 units (-6 TO’s). The
Jets handed BUF their 2nd straight div loss LW & were sparked by a 14 pt swing with a 92 yd int return
at the end of the 1Q. They posted a 249-188 yd edge over the rest of the game & held BUF to just 30 yds
rushing (1.8). Favre has avg’d 219 yg (67%) but has a 3-8 ratio & 6.3 ypa the L4W. STL was thumped by
ARZ LW at home & had 7 punts, 2 TO & 1 SOD on their 1st 10 drives. Haslett pulled RB Jackson after
the 1H to preserve him as they were down 24-7 & ARZ had 15-5 FD & 333-122 yd edges. While the Jets
are #2 in sacks by teams have been able to pass on them with 236 ypg passing (66%) with an 11-7 ratio.
The Jets spent a lot of money on the roster TY but are only getting mediocre results. With a big game vs
NE on deck we’ll side with a scrappy road team off a bad loss getting some line value here.

MINNESOTA 24 Green Bay 13 - GB beat MIN 24-19 as a 2 pt HF in MNF opener & have covered 4 of the
L5. GB had a 17-6 lead in the 3Q when MIN scored on a 23 yd TD pass on 4th & 1 (2ptng). GB had a 57 yd
run set up a QB sneak for a TD which MIN answered with an 11 play drive & TD. GB recovered the onside
kick but went 3 & out only to seal the win with an int with 1:08 left. Rodgers had 178 yds passing (82%) with
a 1-0 ratio but MIN had 16-4 FD & 255-94 yd edges in the 2H. GB is 6-1 ATS away vs a div foe. MIN is 6-3
ATS as a div fav. Both teams came in off their byes LW with GB being the healthiest since TC vs TEN. Facing
MIN another stout passing team for the 4th time TY (IND, NO, CHI) vs HOU. GB still gave up 178 yds (4.9)
to TEN & now gets RB Peterson (124 ypg 5.2 L3W) who immediately noted after TY’s game that he was
priming himself for the rematch. MIN’s defense tallied 5 sacks, 3 TO’s & held HOU to 62 yds rushing (3.9)
LW. While Rodgers has proven himself to be a capable replacement he hasn’t started at the Metrodome.
We’ll side with a solid run game setting up a solid pass rush (#4 sacks) with a manageable line.

SAN DIEGO 38 Kansas City 10 - The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the series. This game has SD’s
#16 & #24 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs KC’s #28 & #32 units (+5 TO’s). SD is 8-2 ATS vs a div foe. KC
is 1-5 ATS vs a div foe. SD returns from its bye week (6-2 ATS) having made a bold move in firing DC
Cottrell & promoting former CHI DC Rivera from LB coach to that spot. Cottrell had SD running more
coverage schemes than LY & were much more passive than the 2H of LY. This & the fact that Merriman’s
spot in the defense has had 3 diff starters due to injury have SD with the #32 pass def allowing 265
ypg (68%) with a 14-6 ratio with 4 games of 0 int. The offense has been slowed by Tomlinson’s foot
injury but he has extra rest & has avg’d 169 ypg (7.5) the L3 games vs KC who are allowing 182 ypg
(5.4) rushing TY. KC has gotten good play from Thigpen (222 ypg 64% 3-0 L2W) as they have been
running the same spread offense that he did at Coastal Carolina & taking advantage of his mobility.
We are well aware that SD is 1-6 ATS as a DD HF but they could afford to look past the lightweights
& now have to rebound after a disappointing start.

PITTSBURGH 24 Indianapolis 21 - Both teams are off primetime games. PIT has the #21 & #1 units (-4
TO’s) vs IND #22 & #10 (+5 TO’s). PIT has a big surface edge vs an IND team that is 5-10 ATS on grass
and the Pitt Panthers play here on Sat & the stadium is known to host high school games also. Despite
being annual playoff teams this is the 1st meeting since 2005. PIT is 2-5 ATS as a HF. IND is 6-3-1 ATS as a
non-div AD. PIT’s OL (#27 sacks) gets a good matchup vs a DL that will have some of its speed negated on
grass where it only has 3 sacks in 3 games TY. PIT expected RB Parker (122 ypg 5.7 1st 2 Wks) to return
after missing 4 games vs WAS & he gets to face an IND def allowing 144 ypg (4.2). IND got RB Addai &
FS Sanders back vs NE but they lost #1 CB Jackson (ACL/MCL) for the year in practice. Minus the PHI
& NYG games Roethlisberger is avg 206 ypg (65%) with a 9-2 ratio (107.5 QBR). Manning is having his
worst stats since his rookie year with 251 ypg (61%) with a 10-9 ratio (79.0) due to missing preseason &
an OL that has fielded 4 diff starting lineups TY. With both teams hit by injuries & off big games we’ll call
for a slight lean for now with the home team & wait for a better indication of the line.

Baltimore 20 HOUSTON 17 - The road team has covered 2 straight & this is the best passing offense
BAL has faced since a 31-3 loss to IND. BAL is 1-6 ATS away vs a non-div foe. HOU is 6-3 ATS hosting
a non-div foe. This is BAL’s 4th road game in 5 Wks & they have another on deck. BAL was able to
survive LW’s game vs CLE without its top 3 DB’s & some poor spec teams play (278 return yds). BAL
has only been outgained in 2 games TY (IND & MIA) & if those are omitted BAL has a 329-213 yd
edge with a 24-16 margin. They now get a HOU team that has won the yardage battle in its L6 games
but have only faced 1 def ranked better than 15th (MIN #11) in that span. HOU is 0-3 SU & ATS vs 3
of the more physical defenses TY (PIT, TEN, MIN) being outrushed 171 (4.7) to 94 (4.4). HOU may
start Rosenfels here as Schaub (left knee) left LW’s game after 2 TO’s which MIN converted into 7 pts.
Flacco has only had 1 bad road game (IND) & has hit for 228 ypg (65%) with a 4-3 ratio (87.9) & look
for HOU to lose to a more physical & aggressive defense for the 2nd week in a row.

NY Giants at PHILADELPHIA - NYG swept the series LY & dominated the 1st game vs a PHI squad
without RB Westbrook, LT Thomas, CB Sheppard & FS Dawkins. The Giants tied an NFL record with 12
sacks & PHI avoided a shutout with a 53 yd FG early 4Q. Vs a fully staffed PHI team in the 2nd meeting
NYG won 16-13 as a 3 pt AD as PHI couldn’t capitalize on red-zone drives. Both teams have been playing
fantastic ball with the Giants #5 & #3 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Eagles #6 & #5 units (+6 TO’s). The Giants
have a big lead in the NFC East but PHI already has 2 div losses & can ill afford a 3rd for tie breakers.

San Francisco at ARIZONA - New 49ers HC Singletary used the bye week to install Shaun Hill (2-1
SU & ATS LY) in as his starting QB. Hill came in during the 2H vs SEA & is more mobile than O’Sullivan
& avg’d 108 ypg (68%) with a 5-2 ratio LY but only had a 6.3 ypa. Singletary is also shaking up the OL
to go with a more smash mouth attack but that remains to be seen with Martz remaining the OC. ARZ is
off 2 road games vs CAR & STL & has a road game vs SEA on deck. ARZ beat SF 23-13 as a 2.5 pt AF
in the 1st meeting but SF has the advantage of being a bit of an unknown at this point in the year & the
visitor is 5-1-1 ATS.


The 3* Totals are 16-11 59%

3* Saints/Falcons Over 48
3* Rams/Jets Over 46
3* Packers/Vikings Under 47
2* Colts/Steelers Under 43*
2* Seahawks/Dolphins Under 43

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


RATING 5 USC (-17½) over California
RATING 4 VIRGINIA (+3½) over Wake Forest
RATING 3 SAN JOSE STATE (-8½) over Louisiana Tech
RATING 2 NORTH CAROLINA (-4) over Georgia Tech
RATING 2 UCLA (+7½) over Oregon State
RATING 1 MICHIGAN STATE (-9) over Purdue
RATING 1 WEST VIRGINIA (-8) over Cincinnati


BALL STATE (-9½) Northern Illinois 7:00 PM
Ball State is 8-0 but the schedule is rather suspect as nonconference wins against Navy and Indiana look much less impressive at this point in the season and four MAC wins came against teams that are a combined 10-25. Last season turnovers enabled a narrow Ball State victory on the road in this long-standing rivalry and the road team has won each of the last four meetings. Northern Illinois is 5-2 ATS on the season and the Huskies have played a much tougher schedule while posting far superior defensive numbers. NIU is allowing just 267 yards per game and this could be the end of the run for the Cardinals. BALL ST BY 3

AKRON (-4½) Toledo 7:00 PM
Akron has not played a game in over two weeks and despite low expectations at the beginning of the year the Zips could be a bowl team by the end of the year with four winnable games remaining. It has been a horribly disappointing year for Toledo, a team that normally contends in the MAC. Both defenses have struggled this season but Akron has been the more productive offense. The extra preparation time should pay dividends for Akron and Toledo has really struggled on the road in recent years. AKRON BY 10


VIRGINIA TECH (NL) Maryland 6:45 PM
After consecutive conference road losses this is a huge game for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are just 2-2 in ACC play but every other team in the Coas tal division also has at least two losses and both Tech losses came against Atlantic division teams. Maryland is the lone team in the ACC with just one conference loss as the Terps are allowing just 19 points per game on the year. The QB situation for Virginia Tech is still uncertain at this point with recent injuries to both starters but the Hokies are desperate. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10

Tcu (-2) UTAH 7:00 PM
The Utes are 9-0 on the year but TCU would be in just as strong of BCS-busting position with a win in this game. Utah dominated the yardage totals last week but only won by three. Utah has won four of the last five meetings between these teams. Both teams have top ten defensive numbers against the run but TCU has been dominant, allowing only 38 yards per game. Utah has scored at least 31 points in every home game this season and while many may view the Utes prime for an upset loss TCU will be facing a second straight road game off a short week. TCU might be the superior team but Utah is in a much better situation and the Horned Frogs have very few quality road wins in recent years. UTAH BY 7


FRESNO STATE (-2) Nevada 8:00 PM
Since the opening win at Rutgers, Fresno State has failed to cover in seven consecutive games. The Bulldogs could not pull out the outright win last week and it appears that Fresno State will go another year without a WAC title. The Fresno State defense features one of the worst rush defenses in the nation, allowing 208 yards per game and that is not promising heading into this match-up. Nevada rushes for 305 yards per game, the second best average in the nation. This series has been decided by nine points or less each of the last three years and another close game is likely. FRESNO BY 4


RUTGERS (-14½) Syracuse 11:00 AM
Only three Big East teams are not bowl eligible and this game features two of those teams. Syracuse is 2-6 on the season while Rutgers is just 3-5. In great contrast to previous Rutgers squads, the Knights lack a solid running game but after a horrible start to the season Rutgers has won back-to-back games over two of the better teams in the conference. Syracuse enters this game coming off a nice upset win over Louisville, the first FBS win of the season for the Orange. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in the last four games and the offense is showing a bit more potential. Rutgers has delivered solid defensive numbers and now has momentum. RUTGERS BY 17

Wisconsin (-10) INDIANA 11:00 AM
In a season that has gone poorly last week’s loss was devastating for Wisconsin. The Badgers led by eleven with about nine minutes to go in the game yet somehow managed to lose. Wisconsin outrushed Michigan State by 256 yards in the effort and it will be tough to bounce back mentally. This will be Indiana’s final home game of the season and Hoosiers will try to shake off a narrow loss last week. Indiana’s running game has been nearly as productive as Wisconsin’s this season but the Badgers should own a defensive edge. Wisconsin is tough to trust as a road favorite. UW BY 7

Ohio State (-11) NORTHWESTERN 11:00 AM
The Wildcats moved to 7-2 last week with an upset win despite playing with its back-up QB. Ohio State is also 7-2 on the season but the Buckeyes have just one Big Ten loss. Ohio State has won the last three meetings by combined total score of 160-24 but Northwestern did upset then #7 ranked Ohio State in 2004. Ohio State is coming off a bye week but the Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS this season with really only one impressively dominant game all season long. Northwestern’s offense has some dangerous options and the Wildcats could keep this game interesting. OHIO STATE BY 10

MICHIGAN STATE (-9) Purdue 11:00 AM
Last week’s win over Michigan was a huge one for Purdue in what has been a very disappointing year. Purdue has won seven of nine meetings in this series under Coach Tiller but it could be tough to deliver after last week’s big win. MSU was a bit flat last week after beating Michigan and RB Ringer appears to be worn out after huge early season numbers. Michigan State has a lot to play for sitting at 5-1 in Big Ten play and still having a shot at Penn State to close the season so the Spartans should take last week’s good fortune and momentum into another win this week. MICHIGAN ST BY 17

NORTH CAROLINA (-4) Georgia Tech 11:00 AM
UNC has effectively battled through injuries and the Tar Heels remain in the thick of the ACC race. Georgia Tech delivered a huge win last week over Florida State and the Yellow Jackets also remain a contender in the conference. Georgia Tech beat North Carolina last season 27-25 at home despite losing the turnover battle. Both defenses have solid numbers this season but North Carolina has played the tougher schedule with more success. Look for UNC to come up with a big win coming off the bye week. UNC BY 13

Illinois (-7) Western Michigan @Detroit, MI 11:00 AM
The Illini were soundly out-gained on the ground last week but were able to pull out the victory in a sloppy Big Ten affair. It could be difficult to leave the conference for this game with Ohio State next on the schedule. Western Michigan is 7-2 on the season and last season the Broncos beat Iowa in Iowa City. Western Michigan owns one of the top passing offenses in the nation and the Illinois defense is allowing over 26 points per game on the year. WM BY 3

WAKE FOREST (-3½) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Demon Deacons have not impressed the last three weeks with two losses and a very narrow home win last week. Still Wake Forest has just two ACC losses to remain in conference contention. Virginia has an impressive four-game win streak snapped with an OT loss but the Cavaliers are still averaging just 17 points per game. Neither team has been able to run the ball with consistent success but the key factor in this game may be the Virginia pass rush as Wake Forest has had protection problems. Wake Forest continues to struggle in the favorite role now 8-17 the last 25. VIRGINIA BY 7

NC State (-4½) DUKE 2:30 PM
Duke is 4-4 on the season but last week’s loss will sting as the Devils out-gained Wake Forest but had four turnovers in a threepoint defeat. NC State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the Wolfpack are 0-4 in the ACC. Duke has been a significantly superior defensive team on the year but the schedule has been a factor in those numbers. NC State has not lost to Duke in the last ten meetings and the bye week coupled with the emotional letdown for the Devils should help continue that trend. NC State could be coming together late in the year. NC STATE BY 6

TEXAS TECH (-3½) Oklahoma State 11:30 AM
These teams combined for over 1,300 yards of offense last season and although this is a revenge spot for the Red Raiders the magnitude of last week’s win creates a very tough situation this week. Tech delivered in a last second upset for the biggest win of school history last week against Texas and it will be extremely tough to deliver a great performance this week. In a match-up of a great rushing team against a great passing team the ground game typically prevails and Oklahoma State also owns superior special teams. Oklahoma State has an excellent track record in road games this season, winning at Missouri and nearly winning at Texas already this year. Tech is not used to this success. OSU BY 3

Florida (-23½) VANDERBILT 7:00 PM
This could be a flat spot for the Gators after coming up with a huge in last week. Florida is 7-1 S/U and ATS on the season but the Gators will be greatly overvalued after huge margins of victory the last two weeks. Vanderbilt is allowing just 16 points per game and although the offensive numbers are poor the Commodores have found ways to stay in games. Vanderbilt has had two weeks to prepare for this game while Florida will be celebrating last week’s big win and hearing about how good they are. The Gators are just 5- 13 as road favorites since ’02. FLORIDA BY 17

SOUTH CAROLINA (-10) Arkansas 12:00 PM
The Gamecocks could be a team to watch in the closing weeks as all three losses on the year came by narrow margins against quality teams. Arkansas has quietly covered in four consecutive games after a terrible start to the year and last week’s win was a big one for the rebuilding program. After facing one of the worst defenses in the nation last week Arkansas will face one of the best this week as South Carolina is allowing only 250 yards and 15 points per game. After giving up 48 points against Arkansas last season expect a much better performance from the Gamecocks. SC BY 14

Georgia (-11½) KENTUCKY 11:30 AM
Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven games falling well short of the lofty season expectations. The Bulldogs will be facing a third straight non-home game this week and Kentucky has been a quality defensive team, allowing just 17 points per game. Georgia’s motivation may be suspect in this match-up after last week’s loss. Georgia’s running game has not been as strong as expected this season and the Bulldogs might struggle here. Kentucky beat Georgia in the last home meeting and the Wildcats have been a competitive team despite a limited offense. GEORGIA BY 7

Bowling Green (-2½) OHIO 1:00 PM
The Falcons caught some breaks early last week and held on for a big win despite allowing close to 500 yards. Ohio has been a tough team to pass against and the Bobcats might be able to slow down the Bowling Green offense. Last season Ohio won 38-27 on the road but turnovers were a key factor in that outcome. The Bobcats have played six of nine games this season on the road and with a long layoff before this game and finally playing a Saturday game at home should help the cause. OHIO BY 3

BYU (-36½) San Diego State 1:00 PM
The Cougars entered the season with huge expectations but now have lost ATS in five straight games and none of the wins on the season look impressive at this point. San Diego State is 1-8 on the year, making a case for the worst team in the nation. The Aztecs can not run the ball and the defense is allowing 35 points and over 471 yards per game. BYU has excelled on offense this season and this should be a good situation catching SDSU in a second consecutive road trip. BYU BY 38

BOISE STATE (NL) Utah State 1:00 PM
Despite getting the least publicity of any of the potential small conference BCS bowl contenders Boise State keeps rolling along while the others have fallen off. Boise State continues to deliver great ATS numbers as well and Utah State enters this game off major upset win. This will be a huge spread but it is very tough to go against the Broncos at home. Boise State is allowing less than ten points per game and this should be another blowout. BOISE BY 35

Oklahoma (NL) TEXAS A&M 1:00 PM
The Aggies have had surprising success in this series and despite being a down program in recent years the numbers as home underdogs are solid. Texas A&M has won back-to-back games but last week the Aggies were out-gained severely, needing turnovers to steal the victory. Oklahoma has posted huge numbers on offense but the defense is falling well short of typical Sooner numbers under Stoops. Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and the A&M defense is not going to make many stops in this match-up. Texas A&M has lost four times S/U at home this season so the home field edge has not been there. OU BY 42

RICE (-10) Army 2:00 PM
The Owls have delivered three consecutive wins and covers to become bowl eligible even with a defense that is allowing 467 yards per game. Army likely will not come close to that number, averaging only 287 yards per game. Army has excellent numbers on defense but the schedule has not featured many teams that can move the ball like Rice has this season. After losing an early lead in a big game against Air Force last week this could be a tough situation for Army, facing long travel and a dangerous offense. RICE BY 14

COLORADO (-10) Iowa State 1:00 PM
Colorado started the season 3-0 but the Buffaloes have won just once in the past six games, losing ATS in all six contests. Iowa State is on a seven-game losing streak and this will be the second straight road game for the Cyclones. Colorado was in a second straight road game last week and the Buffaloes were the only Big 12 team to lose in that situation this season as the previous five all had been ATS winners. Iowa State is a tough team to back given the poor defensive numbers even though Colorado has had a very tough time scoring points. COLORADO BY 13

Memphis (-2½) SMU 2:00 PM
Both teams enjoyed bye weeks last week and it was much more necessary for Memphis as the Tigers have been banged up, particularly at the QB position. SMU is 1-8 on the season but there have been several competitive games along the way in a transitional year. Last season Memphis beat SMU 55-52 in triple overtime and the Tigers have a lot of work to do if they are to make a bowl game for the fifth time in the last seven years. The SMU defense is allowing over 490 yards per game but the Memphis offense has not been good at converting solid yardage numbers into points this season. SMU is a team that should be improved under the new offense but it might not be enough. MEMPHIS BY 6

MISSOURI (-26) Kansas State 2:30 PM
Missouri barely snuck by Baylor last week and it has been a significant drop in credibility for a team that entered the year with legitimate national title hopes. All the attention is on the Big 12 South but Missouri is likely still going to represent the Big 12 North in the conference title game and the Tigers are dangerous enough to deliver an upset to play its way into the BCS bowl that eluded them last season. Kansas State has horrible defensive numbers and the Wildcats will face a second straight road game and fourth in five weeks. Last week’s game could be a wake-up call for the Tigers but the reality is the defense is not very good against the pass, which is K-State’s lone strong suit. MISSOURI BY 17

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

FLORIDA STATE (-6½) Clemson 2:30 PM
This ACC game lacks some intrigue without the father/son match-up for the first time in many years but despite disappointing starts to the season both teams are alive in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson has often fallen flat as favorites but the Tigers are 11-2 in the last 13 games as underdogs. Clemson has won each of the past three years in this series and the Tigers may have some positive momentum after the first win under their new coach. Florida State has been a significantly superior team on offense by the numbers but the Seminoles faced a very weak non-conference slate. Clemson is allowing less than 17 points per game. CLEMSON BY 3

EAST CAROLINA (NL) Marshall 2:30 PM
Marshall delivered a huge win in primetime last week to take the lead in the C-USA East. East Carolina can take back the lead with a win this week but ECU is 1-4 ATS in the last five games. Marshall has not had success as a road team but East Carolina has struggled as a favorite. East Carolina is facing a short week after a Sunday win but the Pirates should have a major defensive advantage. Marshall’s win last week should not carry too much weight and the Herd are 5-19-2 ATS in the last 26 road games. ECU BY 17

Kansas (-1½) NEBRASKA 2:30 PM
Nebraska should be able to move the ball against a terrible Kans as pass defense and the Jayhawks could struggle after delivering a big rivalry win last week. Nebraska was destroyed last week against Oklahoma but turnovers played a big role and Lincoln is still an intimidating venue, particularly for a team like Kansas that is not accustomed to being a favorite on the road. Look for a bounce back week from Nebraska as this should be a high scoring game with a few bounces going the way of the Cornhuskers. NEBRASKA BY 7

Penn State (-7) IOWA 2:30 PM
The Lions figure to get a lot of backing in this game but it may be a tougher match-up than most expect. Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Illinois but the Hawkeyes have owned a very tough home field edge under Coach Ferentz. Penn State completely dominated Iowa last season so this already was going to be a key game for the Hawkeyes. Iowa owns one of the top scoring defenses in the nation, allowing just 13 points per game and this is a tough travel spot for Penn State, as this is the fourth road game in the last six weeks. If the Lions are to lose in the regular season this is likely the toughest spot on the remaining schedule. PENN STATE BY 4

BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) Notre Dame 7:00 PM
The Eagles have won five consecutive meetings in this series but the season is unraveling for BC with back-to-back losses. Notre Dame fell short last week in a crushing blow to any lingering major bowl hopes. Boston College has featured an incredibly tough defense this season, allowing only 274 yards per game with great numbers against the pass. The Irish will have a tough time rebounding quickly and this series is always a bigger game for Boston College even though the Eagles are the favorites. Notre Dame’s schedule has been very weak and Boston College is a solid team that is tough to beat at home this time of year. BC BY 10

TENNESSEE (-25½) Wyoming 12:00 PM
At 3-6 Tennessee would need to win out to be considered for a bowl game and the Vols have struggled despite not allowing more than 30 points in any game and featuring outstanding defensive numbers. Wyoming has decent defensive numbers but like Tennessee, scoring has been a major obstacle. Wyoming could be a bit flat this week after getting a big win last week and both coaching staffs are likely in trouble this off-season. Tennessee’s has faced som e of the top defenses in the nation in recent weeks and moving the ball should come much easier this week. TENNESSEE BY 28

Alabama (-3) LSU 2:30 PM
Neither team dominated last week but both pulled away for solid victories. At 9-0, Alabama has taken over the nation’s top ranking but there are many hurdles still ahead. This game has intriguing storylines on the sidelines as Coach Saban plays at LSU for the first time since his departure. Alabama’s defense has been dominant but the offense has gone through flat spots and the LSU defense may be the top unit faced by the Tide so far this season. Alabama has delivered in each tough road game so far this season and it is tough to doubt Alabama here. ALBAMA BY 7

OREGON (-13) Stanford 2:30 PM
The Ducks fell flat last week in a big game and quietly Stanford is just a win away from bowl eligibility. The remaining three games are horribly difficult for the Cardinal however but catching Oregon off a disappointing loss might be the best chance. Oregon has covered in six in a row in this series and in a match-up of two strong rushing teams should favor the home Ducks. Stanford’s only road win came against winless Washington while Oregon has been a very strong home team in recent years. OREGON BY 21

Arizona State (NL) WASHINGTON 6:00 PM
The Sun Devils have dropped six in a row even though a competitive effort was given last week. Washington is 0-8 but each of the first eight games came against teams that currently have winning records. Washington has covered in just one gam e this season but ASU has covered in just two games. Both teams have horrendous running games and this will be a tougher situation for Arizona State, facing a fourth road game in six weeks. Washington has given little reason to expect an improved performance this week but it is tough to lay points on the road with a team that has lost six consecutive games. ARIZONA STATE BY 7

The Warriors were tripped up last week on the road and this will be a second straight road game, always a difficult feat for the islanders. New Mexico State did not come close in last week’s game against WAC leader Boise State but the pass defense numbers for the Aggies should be encouraging facing a Hawaii offense reliant on the aerial attack. New Mexico State has played much closer with Hawaii than the final margins suggest the past two years. NMS BY 3

HOUSTON (NL) Tulane 7:00 PM
Injuries have decimated a once promising start to the Tulane season. Houston had a three-game win streak snapped in national TV loss last week. Houston has dominated this series the past four years and the Cougars will get up for this homecoming match-up. Houston has played just one home game in the last six weeks so this will be a greatly anticipated game and it will be the second straight road game for Tulane. Look for Houston’s offense to get back on track and Tulane does not have the offensive power to keep pace in a high scoring game. HOUSTON BY 27

AIR FORCE (NL) Colorado State 5:30 PM
Air Force is quietly 7-2 for a highly productive season and the Falcons continue to deliver incredible rushing numbers, averaging 274 yards per game. Defense has enabled the victories however as Air Force is allowing just 17 points per game. Colorado State gave BYU a serious scare last week but the Rams are getting few stops, allowing over 32 points per game. Despite the in-state and conference rivalry this series has produced few close games. Expect Air Force to pull away with a convincing win. AIR FORCE BY 17

Oregon State (-7½) UCLA 5:00 PM
Oregon State has won five of the past six games but they face a rested UCLA squad. The Bruins have just three wins and very unimpressive statistics but UCLA is a dangerous home underdog in this situation. Oregon State has had virtually no success the last two decades in this series and the Bruins will catch value against a Beavers squad that is gaining some attention. Oregon State has struggled on special teams and the Beavers are 1-3 S/U on the road this season with the lone win coming against winless Washington. The numbers do not support UCLA but the situation may give the Bruins an opportunity for an upset. UCLA BY 3

Arizona (-39) WASHINGTON STATE 9:00 PM
The Wildcats have had two weeks to recover from their near-miss against USC and this week should provide a great opportunity to get on track. Washington State is posting historically bad numbers, allowing close to 50 points per game while scoring just 12 points per game. In six Pac-10 games WSU is scoring just 5.5 points per game. Arizona’s defense has been excellent this season and the Wildcats need this win to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 1998. This will be an incredibly large spread but Arizona has had two weeks to prepare and the Wildcats have no reason to hold back following several seasons of frustration. The three Pac-10 home games for WSU were against arguably the top three teams in the conference so there may be some hope. ARIZONA BY 49

CENTRAL FLORIDA (NL) Southern Miss 6:00 PM
UCF has played back-to-back Sunday games and the Golden Knights are still the defending conference champions even if prospects look less promising this season. Southern Miss snapped a five-game losing streak last week with a 70-point effort last week but the UCF defense should prevent a repeat performance. Central Florida is 9-2-1 the last twelve home games and Southern Miss is giving up big numbers, allowing nearly 30 points per game. UCF has been a bit inconsistent this season but Southern Miss will be overvalued and face a third road game in four weeks. UCF BY 10

TEXAS (-25½) Baylor 6:00 PM
The four-game gauntlet for Texas ended sourly and this could be a tougher than expected match-up for the Longhorns. Baylor played right with Missouri last week and despite just three wins the Bears have been very competitive in most games. The Bears have a dangerous rushing offense with a mobile QB and Baylor could have a rushing edge against a Texas squad that is more successful in the air. If Texas comes out flat after last week’s big game this could be an upset risk even though all the trends point to Texas as the vastly superior squad in this game. The Longhorns are a tackle away from still being the top team and it will still sting. TEXAS BY 21

WEST VIRGINIA (-8) Cincinnati 6:30 PM
The Mountaineers are the lone undefeated team in Big East conference play and they take a five-game win streak into this game. Despite numerous injuries this season Cincinnati is 6-2 and a win here would put the Bearcats in the Big East driver’s seat. Cincinnati has been very impressive against the run this season and this will be a huge game for Cincinnati after a narrow loss in this series last season. West Virginia has won outright in nine of the last ten meetings between these teams and this team finally appears to be living up to its potential after a rocky start to the season. Cincinnati will have a tough time taking a second big conference win in as many weeks. WEST VIRGINIA BY 17

PITTSBURGH (-6½) Louisville 6:30 PM
The Panthers moved to 6-2 with a huge win over Notre Dame last week and there could be a letdown for Pittsburgh as Louisville aims to bounce back from another loss to Syracuse. Louisville still needs another win for bowl eligibility and with a tough remaining schedule there will be great focus on this game. Louisville has won seven in a row in this series and Pittsburgh has struggled at home, going 3-11 ATS in the last 14. Louisville has been an impressive team against the run and Pittsburgh has posted very marginal numbers en route to a solid record. Look for a bounce back from Louisville and expect some extra value going against the Panthers. PITT BY 3

MINNESOTA (-7½) Michigan 7:00 PM
Minnesota has had little success in this series and the Gophers are certainly not accustomed to the role as favorites against Michigan. Last week’s loss was a crushing blow for the Gophers but at 7-2 it has been a highly successful season. Michigan can no longer make a bowl game and there is little left to play for so a second consecutive road games against a more successful spread offense might be problematic. Minnesota has been carried by turnovers this season as the defense is posting very solid numbers a year after being among the nation’s worst. Look for Minnesota to bounce back and deliver as Michigan has little to play for. The Gophers have been fortunate but Michigan has not proven it can avoid giving up turnovers and big plays. MINNESOTA BY 10

USC (-17½) California 7:00 PM
California played USC very close last season and the Bears have been dangerous underdogs. Southern Cal has delivered incredible defensive numbers this season, allowing just over seven points per game and only 211 yards per game. Cal has posted strong defensive numbers as well and a win here would give the Bears a great shot at unseating USC on top of the conference. Cal has not played well on the road this season with both losses coming away from home and USC will step up for this big game. This is the game that USC has been waiting for to make a splash nationally after having become a bit of an afterthought in the title picture as other teams are grabbing headlines and the Pac-10 has been down. USC has been dominant at home and there will be no lack of focus for this big game. Cal likely slips after a big win last week. USC BY 28

SAN JOSE STATE (-8½) Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM
San Jose State nearly slipped last week but the Spartans are now 6- 3 and likely headed to another bowl game. Louisiana Tech picked up a huge win last week and although the Bulldogs are tough in Ruston they have not been able to duplicate that success on the road. San Jose State has impressive defensive numbers this season, particularly against the run and forcing Louisiana Tech to the air has proven to be a successful formula this season. Louisiana Tech is 0-4 S/U and ATS in road games this season and after a huge win over the preseason WAC favorite a repeat performance is unlikely in a difficult travel setting. SAN JOSE STATE BY 17

New Mexico (-3½) UNLV 9:00 PM
The Lobos came very close to a big upset last week but falling short has left New Mexico two games out of bowl eligibility with just two games to play. UNLV has lost five straight games and the Rebels are allowing 35 points per game. New Mexico rushes for 212 yards per game and the Lobos have covered in seven of the last nine games in this series . This has been a very tight series in recent years although New Mexico won convincingly last season at home. The Lobos have not won outside their home state this season and UNLV is a better team than the record indicates. NEW MEX BY 3

TROY (NL) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
UL-Monroe knocked off Troy last week but the Trojans will still have a great opportunity to win the Sun Belt hosting each of the final three games. Western Kentucky lost soundly to North Texas last week as big favorites in their homecoming game and the transition year has not gone as planned for the Hilltoppers with a 0-7 record against FBS teams, with only one cover on the year. Troy is unlikely to match season averages with the necessary offensive changes due to the QB injury and the Trojans will be huge favorites in this matchup and it might be a tough spot to cover. TROY BY 21

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-21) North Texas 3:00 PM
The Owls have not been able to live up to last season’s great run through the Sun Belt but catching a relaxed North Texas squad off its first win of the season should lead to a victory. Florida Atlantic has had a bye week to prepare for this game and the Owls should move the ball at will against the North Texas defense that is allowing over 48 points per game. Last season North Texas put up a lot of yardage in this game but turnovers helped lead FAU to the victory.Look for a solid win from the Owls. FLORIDA ATL BY 24

UL-LAFAYETTE (-9½) Utep 6:00 PM
The Miners came close to a big win last week but the defense has been a huge liability. UTEP has allowed 126 points in the last two games and UL-Lafayette has emerged as the leader in the Sun Belt. The Ragin’ Cajuns are rushing for over 300 yards per game and it has led to a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS record in the conference. Getting the opportunity to host a non-conference game will not be taken lightly and Lafayette beat Kent earlier this season at home and played close at Illinois. UL-Lafayette does not have a strong defense but the running game should carry the way. ULL BY 17

Arkansas State (-3) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6:00 PM
Arkansas State could not hang close against Alabama last week and it might be tough to face a now third-straight road game against an improved Florida International team. Turnovers killed the Panthers last week but FIU had covered in five in a row before struggling against the current Sun Belt leader last week. Arkansas State has a far superior running game but this will be a big game for the Panthers after a narrow loss in this series last season. This should be a tough spot for Arkansas State and Florida International will play just its third home game of the year. FIU BY 3

The Blue Raiders have lost three in a row and five of the last six despite starting the season with great promise, featuring an upset over Maryland and a near-upset against Kentucky. Monroe is coming off a big upset over Sun Belt powerhouse Troy and the Warhawks have had a successful running game this season. MTSU is coming off a bye week and five of the last six games were on the road so this could be a breakout game. Catching Monroe off a huge victory is a great situation and this is typically a high scoring series. Monroe is 0-3 S/U on the road this season with only a narrow cover in an eight-point loss this year. MTSU BY 14

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Nelly NFL

RATING 5 NY GIANTS (+3) over Philadelphia
RATING 4 ST. LOUIS (+9) over NY Jets
RATING 3 ATLANTA (-1) over New Orleans
RATING 2 SAN DIEGO (-14) over Kansas City
RATING 1 GREEN BAY (+1) over Minnesota


CLEVELAND (-3) Denver (48) 7:15 PM
The call to start QB Quinn may be coming as the Brown blew a 14- point late game lead last week and QB Anderson could not make plays when the team needed them. The Cleveland defense that had played magnificently for four straight games , allowed over 400 yards and 37 points to Baltimore last week at home. The Broncos have dropped three in a row while moving to 1-7 ATS on the season. Hailed as the next great QB in the league early in the year, Jay Cutler has come on tough times of late and the Denver defense is not helping the cause with league-worst numbers. BROWNS BY 6


Jacksonville (-6) DETROIT (44½) 12:00 PM
The Lions finally avoiding digging a big hole to start a game but the end result was a familiar loss. Detroit is 0-8 on the year but the Lions have covered in three of the last four, with the one miss by just a single point. Jacksonville has lost in consecutive weeks to losing teams and at 3-5 the Jaguars are just that. This is the second week in a row on the road facing long travel north and no game for the Jaguars this season has been decided by more than seven points.Laying points on the road is risky here. JAGUARS BY 3

Tennessee (NL) CHICAGO 12:00 PM
After getting great play from Kyle Orton the Bears are now back to the much-maligned Rex Grossman at QB but he inherits a 1st place team. The Titans have moved to a perfect 8-0 but last week’s game with another NFC North squad was a major challenge. Last week’s game was the first all season that Tennessee failed to cover in (though a push at many closing lines) and although the defensive scoring numbers have been great, opponents are starting to move the ball more effectively against them. Chicago’s running game in encouraging but going against the Titans is tough. TITANS BY 10

NEW ENGLAND (NL) Buffalo 12:00 PM
The Patriots could not deliver last week and turnovers and the failure to find the end zone have been problems for the adjusting offense. The Bills moved the ball at will early last week but had everything that could go wrong go wrong to fall at home. The Bills, Patriots, and Jets are all tied at 5-3 in the AFC East and 4-4 Miami is also a serious threat. The Bills have lost 14 of the last 15 against New England but the Patriots have been a terrible ATS team at home recently, including 1-3 this year. PATRIOTS BY 3

ATLANTA (-1) New Orleans (50) 12:00 PM
The Falcons had a dominant performance last week on defense, allowing three first downs and just 77 total yards in a shutout win. At 5-3 Atlanta is a serious playoff threat and the next three games all come at home. New Orleans has not won consecutive games all season long and the Saints defense has cancelled out the big numbers from the offense. The Falcons are the top rushing team in the league and Atlanta is 3-0 S/U and ATS at home so far this season. Look for the Falcons to deliver. FALCONS BY 10

NY JETS (-9) St. Louis (44½) 12:00 PM
The Jets caught a ton of breaks last week and even though many of the wins have not been impressive New York is 5-3 and tied for first place in the East while going 4-1 in the last five games. St. Louis came up well short to throw away an opportunity to climb back into the NFC West race and the coaching change momentum appears to be wearing thin. The Rams are allowing close to 30 points and over 400 yards but Jets have struggled against bad teams. JETS BY 3

MIAMI (-9½) Seattle (44) 12:00 PM
The Seahawks got off to a great start last week but then did nothing the remainder of the game for yet another loss. Seattle is 2-6 on the season and traveling clear across the country looks like a tough situation. Miami is 4-4 on the season but none of the losses look bad and the schedule ahead is highly favorable. Miami has had disturbing recent numbers as home favorites but Seattle has not been able to score points . DOLPHINS BY 14

MINNESOTA (-1) Green Bay (45) 12:00 PM
The Vikings got a big win last week and these two division favorites are locked at 4-4 with an early final meeting of the season. Both teams trail Chicago in the standings and the loser of this game will have a very tough path to the playoffs. Green Bay has dominated this series in recent years and the Vikings have not defended the passing game well this season which should play into strengths for the Packers. Look for a close battle but counting on Minnesota to deliver in this big game is risky. PACKERS BY 4

Carolina (-9) OAKLAND (38½) 3:05 PM
The Panthers are 6-2 on the year but in a very competitive NFC South there is little room for breathing as Tampa Bay also has six wins and Atlanta is emerging as a contender. Oakland played horribly last week and the Raiders are tough to trust in any circumstance despite several competitive efforts this year. The Raiders are now 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games as home underdogs. Carolina is 1-2 on the road this season with only a miraculous last second victory so this is far from a sure spot for the Panthers even against Oakland. PANTHERS BY 7

SAN DIEGO (-14) Kansas City (47) 3:15 PM
The Chargers are rested but double-digit favorites have covered in just 13 percent of games this season. The Chiefs continue to find ways to lose but the last two weeks have featured competitive efforts against teams with winning records. Kansas City has struggled in this series and the Chargers are in dire need of a big win despite being unreliable and questionably healthy this season. The San Diego defense is problematic but last week’s loss has to continue to hurt for the Chiefs. CHARGERS BY 21

PITTSBURGH (NL) Indianapolis 3:15 PM
The Colts were desperate for a win last week and despite a huge disadvantage on the ground Indianapolis came up big in the hyped match-up with the Patriots. Pittsburgh faces a tough scheduling spot as the Steelers face this big game off a short week. Pittsburgh has the best defensive numbers in the league and the emphasis on running the ball should prove effective in this game. Indianapolis is allowing over 140 yards per game on the ground while failing to cover in the last three road games . STEELERS BY 10

PHILADELPHIA (-3) NY Giants (43½) 7:15 PM
The Eagles had a slow start last week but ultimately delivered a third straight win. Philadelphia has had a few suspect wins this season but the Eagles also could have won each of the three games they lost. Defensively the Eagles have solid overall numbers in the NFC but the Giants have been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL so far this season. Philadelphia’s running game has been very inconsistent. New York is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia and the Giants are still the team to beat. GIANTS BY 4

Baltimore (NL) HOUSTON 12:00 PM
This game was moved to accommodate the changes after the hurricane in Houston and the Ravens enter this game having won and covered in three straight games. Houston could not keep up in Minnesota last week and the Texans have allowed at least 21 points in every game this year. Baltimore is still one of the top defensive teams in the league and QB Flacco has been solid. RAVENS BY 7

ARIZONA (-10) San Francisco (46) 7:35 PM

Although the Cardinals have certainly delivered worse collapses in franchise history it is tough to envision Arizona losing its grip on the NFC West. Always plagued on the road, the Cardinals have played well the past two weeks away from home and Arizona is 3-0 at home this season, S/U and ATS, scoring at least 30 points in each of those games. San Francisco is rested but the problems on the team are many. QB Hill could provide a quick fix to keep this division game close however. CARDINALS BY 7

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11



Series trends are certainly in Boise State’s favor when the afternoon.
Boise has won and covered its last 7 meetings vs. the
Utags, including one-sided 52 and 39-point romps the past two
seasons. And over the last decade, there hasn’t been a better
home favorite than the Broncos, now a stellar 36-15 vs. the line as
host since 1998. And Boise’s recent “AFS” (“Away From
Spread”) number of +18.50 its last two games rates as one of the
nation’s best. Meanwhile, note that USU has failed to cover its last
3 as a road dog.

It’s no longer the Bowden Bowl since Tommy resigned (forced
or otherwise) at Clemson, but series trends still favor the Tigers
for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Florida State. Remember,
Clemson has won and covered the last 3 and 4 of the last 5 series
meetings, and after last week’s win at Boston College, qualifies as
a featured Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week, as
well as a Power Underdog. On the other hand, the Seminoles have
been most unreliable lately as Tallahassee chalk, dropping 14 of their
last 20 spread decisions as a favorite at Doak Campbell Stadium.

There’s no question that Pittsburgh has been a very formful
pointspread entity for the past few years under HC Dave
Wannstedt. That’s especially true when the Panthers have been
laying points at Heinz Field, which they have to do again for
Saturday’s Big East battle against Louisville. Indeed, Pitt has
been unreliable lately as home chalk, standing 2-10-1 its last 13.
And series trends favor the visiting Cardinals, who have won and
covered the last three meetings.

Team and series trends stack up in San Jose State’s favor
when the Spartans play host to Louisiana Tech at Spartan
Stadium Saturday night. That’s because the Spartans have had
the pointspread edge on the Bulldogs in recent meetings, covering
the last four. It’s also because San Jose has performed so
admirably as a home favorite lately, covering its last 6 tries as
home chalk, as well as 9 of its last 10 overall as host. And there
is no reason to fear La Tech, especially on the road, where the
Bulldogs have dropped all four tries vs. the line in ‘08, and now 4-
19 as a visiting dog since late in the ‘04 campaign.

MARYLAND at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday, November 6)...Ralph
just 5-10 vs. line last 15 as visitor. Beamer 0-2 vs. line at
Blacksburg TY, 2-6 last 8 as host (all as chalk). Hokies also 2-6
vs. line last 8 on board. Tech edge-slight to VT, based one
xtended Ralph road woes.

TCU at UTAH (Thursday, November 6)...Utes just 1-2 vs. line
at home TY after 8-3 mark previous 11 as host. Frogs 11-3 vs.
number last 14 on board (7-2 TY) and 6-3-1 as short since ‘05.
Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.

NEVADA at FRESNO STATE (Friday, November 7)...Dog has
covered last 3 in series, although Wolf Pack has lost SU last 4 trips
to Bulldog Stadium. Fresno no covers last 7 in ‘08 and 3-13 vs. spread
last 16 at Bulldog Stadium. Pat Hill also 3-18 last 21 as chalk. Tech
edge-Nevada, based on Fresno spread woes.

SYRACUSE at RUTGERS...Rutgers has won and covered big the
last 3 meetings. Scarlet Knights have also covered last 4 as series
host, most of those before the team became any good. Robinson 6-
14 vs. line last 20 on board, 1-2 as road dog TY. Schiano on 4-game
cover streak. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on series trends.

WISCONSIN at INDIANA...Badgers have bullied Hoosiers last 2
meetings, winning and covering each by 30 or more. IU had failed to
cover first 4 at Bloomington TY until Northwestern. Tech edgeslight
to UW, based on series trends.

OHIO STATE at NORTHWESTERN...OSU has dominated, winning
by huge margins the last 3 meetings (NU never closer than 41!). Road
team has covered the last 6 Buckeye games TY, including OSU’s last 2
as visitor. Tech edge-OSU, based on recent series trends.

PURDUE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dog team has covered last 4 in
series (teams didn’t meet, however, in ‘03-04). Tiller only 2-5 vs. line
last 7 in farewell tour, but MSU has failed to cover its last 3 at home.
Still, Dantonio 20-11-3 overall vs. spread since ‘05 with Cincy & MSU.
Tech edge-MSU, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Tech has won last 3
meetings but failed to cover any of those, or the last 4 in series. Paul
Johnson, however, is 6-1 vs. line TY (2-0 as dog), 3-0 vs. line as
visitor, and 18-5 last 23 as dog away from home with Navy & GT! Tech
edge-GT, based on Paul Johnson trends.

ILLINOIS vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (at Ford Field, Detroit)... Zook
just 1-3 as chalk TY and 1-8 vs. line last 9 vs. non-Big Ten opposition!
Tech edge-slight to WMU, based on Illini non-conference woes.

VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST...Cavs hot, 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5
TY. UVa also turned around long road drought, winning at GT after
9-25 spread mark previous 34 as visitor. Wake no covers last 3 TY,
and if Wake chalk note 8-20-2 mark in role at Winston-Salem since ‘98.
Tech edge-slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.

NC STATE at DUKE...If NCS chalk note this will be Wolfpack’s first
chance in role TY; O’Brien 1-2 in role LY but Wolfpack 7-22 as chalk
since ‘03 (mostly Amato). Cutcliffe 3-1 vs. line at home TY. Tech
edge-Duke, especially if dog, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Three straight series covers
for OSU, although Cowboys winless in 6 tries as series visitor
since Big XII was formed (counts ‘96 game at Dallas). OSU 8-0 vs.
line TY and has covered last 9 on board since late ‘07. Tech edgeslight
to OSU, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT...Dores haven’t won SU vs. Gators
since ‘88, but they have covered 4 of last 6 in series. Vandy still 6-
2 vs. line TY and Bobby Johnson 2-0 as home dog in ‘08. Urban Meyer
has covered last 5 as visitor (not counting neutral sites and bowls)
and Gators 11-1 vs. line last 11, and 13-2 last 15 regular-season
games. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS at SOUTH CAROLINA...Arkansas has covered its last
4 TY including its last 2 as visitor. Hogs have also won and covered
last 2 and 5 of last 6 vs. Gamecocks. Tech edge- Arkansas, based
on recent trends.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY...UGa has won and covered 5 of last 6
in series although Dawgs lost at Lexington (24-20 in ‘06) in last visit.
Cats just 1-6 vs. number last 7 at Commonwealth Stadium, while
Dawgs 5-1 vs. spread last 6 away from Athens. Tech edge-
Georgia, based on series and team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at OHIO...Falcons 5-0 vs. line as visitor TY, 8-
0 last 8 away since late LY!. BGSU had also covered 9 of last 10 in
series and last 5 at Athens! Tech edge-BGSU, based on team and
series trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at BYU...Aztecs no covers last 2 or 6 of last
7 in series. Aztecs no covers last 4 on road TY, now 5-12 vs. spread
last 17 on road. Bronco, however, no covers last 5 TY. Tech edge-
BYU, based on series and anti-Aztec trends.

UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE...All Boise lately, with wins and
covers last 7 meetings. Tech edge-Boise, based on team and
series trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS A&M...Sooners have actually failed to
cover 3 of last 4 in series and dropped their last 2 spread decisions
at Kyle Field. OU, however, hasn’t lost SU vs. A&M since ‘02. Sooners
have covered first 3 as visitor TY and Stoops 3-0 laying 20 or more
TY. Ags have covered last 3 overall. Tech edge-slight to OU,
based on team trends.

ARMY at RICE...Army 5-1 vs. line last 6 on board. Rice, however,
is solid 4-0 as chalk TY. Owls have also covered last 4 as host since
late LY. Tech edge-slight to Rice, based on recent trends.

IOWA STATE at COLORADO...Both have cooled, especially CU
with no covers its last 6 games. ISU no covers its last 4 games. Home
team has covered the last 3 in series, however. Tech edge-slight
to CU, based on recent series home trend.

MEMPHIS at SMU...After failing to cover all 6 as host LY, SMU is
2-1 vs. line at home in ‘08 for June Jones. Rare road chalk role for
Memphis. Tigers just 1-3 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to
SMU, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at MISSOURI...Mizzou has won and covered last
2 meetings by similar scores (41-21 & 49-32) after taking a beating
from Bill Snyder’s KSU in the previous decade. Pinkel is 11-5-1 vs.
number last 17 at Faurot Field. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on team
and recent series trends.

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE...No longer the Bowden Bowl.
Tommy Bowden had owned his papa Bobby lately, winning and
covering last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Noles just 5-9 as Tallahassee
chalk since '06 and 6-14 last 20 in role since late '04. Tech edge-
Clemson, based on series trends.

MARSHALL at EAST CAROLINA...Herd still laboring on road, just
1-3 vs. spread away TY after 4-18 previous 22 away from Huntington.
Skip 7-3 as Greenville chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-ECU, based
on team trends.

KANSAS at NEBRASKA...Kansas has turned around this series
(covered last 4) but Jayhawks still haven’t won at Lincoln since 1968.
Bo Pelini just 2-4 vs. line at home TY and Huskers only 4-9 as host since
LY (1-2 as home dog that span). Mangino 7-1 vs. line away from home
since LY (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to KU, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at IOWA...Iowa is 6-3-1 vs. line last 10 as underdog.
Shades, however, has covered 7 of 8 on board TY and 8 of last 9 since
late ‘07. Shades has also covered last 4 laying points away from Happy
Valley. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on recent trends.

NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE...Irish have lost last 5 SU vs.
BC, although ND has covered two of those (including 27-14 loss LY).
Tech edge-BC, based on series trends.

WYOMING at TENNESSEE...Wyo 1-7 vs. line TY and 1-15-1 last 17.
Vols 2-1 as home chalk TY, and have covered 4 of last 5 laying 19
or more. Tech edge-UT, based on Wyo woes.

ALABAMA at LSU...This has been a road-oriented series, with
visitor 7-1-2 vs. line last 10, 9-1-2 last 12, 12-2-2 last 16 meetings.
Tide has covered 7 of last 8 at Baton Rouge, although Bama hasn’t
been favored in series since ‘02 (won 31-0 as 1½-point chalk). Tigers
no covers first 4 as host TY and just 1-8 against number last 9 at home.
Nicky has covered first 4 away from home TY (last 5 since end of ‘07).
Tech edge-Bama, based on team and series road trends.

STANFORD at OREGON...Oregon has won and covered 6 straight
in series since Ty’s last Tree team dealt Ducks their only loss of ‘01,
49-42. Ducks 13-7 vs. line as host since ‘05. Tree just 1-4 vs. line
away TY, 1-6 last 7 as visitor. Tech edge-Oregon, based on
team and series trends.

ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...Ty has dropped last 6 and 7
of 8 against line TY. ASU has won and covered last 4 in series,
although 5 of last 6 meetings have taken place in Tempe. Tech edge-
ASU, based on series trends.

HAWAII at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU no covers first 3 as host
TY (all as dog). Tech edge-slight to UH, based on team trends.

TULANE at HOUSTON...UH has won and covered last 5 in series,
all by 21 or more! Wave, however, has covered first 3 as visitor TY.
Tech edge-slight to UH, based on series trends.

COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE...CSU pretty formful TY, failing
to cover first 4 away from Fort Collins while 4-0 vs. line at home at Hughes
Stadium. Meanwhile, Troy Calhoun 7-1 vs. line at home since taking over
at AFA LY. Tech edge-Air Force, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at UCLA...Beavs have had their problems lately
vs. UCLA, losing and failing to cover last 5, the last 3 of those by 18
or more. Riley 7-4 as road chalk since ‘03. Bruins’ extended spread
numbers are still pretty good (37-19-1 last 57 on board since early
‘04). Bruins 4-1 vs. line at Rose Bowl TY, 20-5 last 25 as host! Tech
edge-UCLA, based on series and team trends.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON STATE...Cougs on course for epic
spread run, having dropped first 8 games on board TY! Arizona has
covered last 5 in series anyway. Tech edge-UA, based on team
and series trends.

2 meetings, and Golden Knights 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 as host (6-2-
1 in new stadium since LY). Tech edge-UCF, based on team and
series trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS...Baylor hasn’t been closer than 21 the last 9
vs. Texas, but Bears a bit more competitive TY for Art Briles (5-2 vs.
line last 7 games). Baylor 2-1 as road dog TY, but 0-1 getting 20 or
more. Horns are 4-0 laying 20 or more in ‘08. Tech edge-Texas,
based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at WEST VIRGINIA...Cincy 1-3 vs. line away TY after
5-1 mark as visitor for Brian Kelly LY. Bearcats, however, 4-1 as dog
for Kelly, and 8-3-1 last 12 in role since ‘06. Tech edge-Cincy,
based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at PITT...‘Stache hasn’t won last 3 years vs. Cards
but did get cover LY. Pitt 0-3-1 vs. line as host TY, 2-10-1 last 13 at
Heinz Field! Tech edge-UL, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA...Rodriguez a poor 1-8 vs. line in
Michigan debut! Tech edge-Minnesota, based on recent trends.

CAL at SOUTHERN CAL...Tedford just 1-5 as dog since ‘05 after
11-3-1 mark as short his first three years on job. Cal also 2-9 vs. line
last 11 as visitor (1-2 TY). Pete 9-3-1 last 13 on board since late ‘07.
Tech edge-slight to SC, based on team trends.

LA TECH at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU has covered last 4 in series,
winning by DD margins last 2 as series host. Spartans 9-1 vs. line
last 10 as host, and 6-0 last 6 as home chalk. LT 0-4 vs. line away
TY, now 4-19 last 23 as visiting dog! Tech edge-SJSU, based on
team and series trends.

NEW MEXICO at UNLV...Rocky has won last 3 and covered last
4 as series visitor. Rocky also 7-2 vs. line against UNLV. Rocky now
23-11 against number last 34 as visitor. Tech edge-UNM, based
on team and series trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at TROY...Troy 15-5-2 last 22 on board.
Hilltoppers just 1-5 vs. line last 6 on board. Tech edge-Troy, based
on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Schnellenberger 2-1 as
chalk TY and 8-3 as favorite since ‘06. Tech edge-FAU, based on
team and series trends.

UTEP at UL-LAFAYETTE...Ragin’ Cajuns on serious uptick with 7
straight covers, including covers last 5 as chalk! UTEP just 2-6 vs. line
TY and 3-9 last 12 on board. Tech edge-ULL, based on recent trends.

just 1-3 as chalk TY and now 4-9 in role since ‘06. Tech edge-FIU,
based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU only 1-4 last 5 on
board TY and no covers first 2 as chalk. Weatherbie 16-8-1 vs.
number as visitor since ‘05 (2-2 TY), also 14-7-1 as road dog since
‘05. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.



COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Northern Illinois (11/
05)@, TCU over Utah (11/06), VIRGINIA TECH over Maryland (11/06),
ARKANSAS over South Carolina, BYU over San Diego State, CINCINNATI
over West Virginia, EAST CAROLINA over Marshall@, GEORGIA
TECH over North Carolina@, KANSAS over Nebraska, UL-MONROE
over Middle Tennessee@, MICHIGAN ST. over Purdue, MISSOURI over
Kansas State, OHIO STATE over Northwestern, OREGON over Stanford.

GEORGIA TECH over North Carolina, UL-MONROE oveer Middle
Tennessee@, NC STATE* over Duke, UTEP over UL-Lafayette, UCLA
over Oregon State@, and WAKE FOREST* over Virginia.
RIVALRY DOGS-No plays this week.

POWER UNDERDOGS-TCU over Utah (11/06), CAL over Southern
Cal, CINCINNATI over West Virginia, CLEMSON over Florida State,
GEORGIA TECH over North Carolina@, IOWA over Penn State@,
KENTUCKY over Georgia, MICHIGAN over Minnesota, OKLAHOMA
STATE over Texas Tech, UCLA over Oregon State@, WAKE FOREST*
over Virginia, and dog in ALABAMA-LSU game.



RESTED HOME WINNERS-BALL STATE over Northern Illinois (11/
05)@, AKRON over Toledo, FLORIDA ATLANTIC voer North texas,
NORTH CAROLINA over Georgia Tech@, RUTGERS over Syracuse.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11


We often see extended runs with certain NFL “totals” trends,
and Houston’s proclivity for “overs” is a great example. The
Texans have gone “over” 7 of their first 8 this season, adding to
noteworthy “over” numbers that have been accumulating since
late in the ‘06 campaign (20-8-1 “over” last 29 on board). So,
we’re looking “over” for this week’s Hurricane Ike make-up game
at Reliant Stadium vs. Baltimore, now “over” 8-4-1 itself its last
13 as a visitor.

Another “over” NFL team in recent times has been Arizona,
which has also been going “over” a lot when facing Monday
night’s opponent at U of Phoenix Stadium, NFC West rival San
Francisco, the past few years. Seven of the last ten series
meetings have gone “over,” as well as the last three contested in the
desert. The Cards are also “over” five straight at home, as well as in
23 of their last 31 games overall since late in the ‘06 campaign.

DENVER at CLEVELAND (Thursday, November 6)...Broncos
sliding with no covers last 6 TY, and Browns covers4 of last 5.
Shan 2-13 vs. line last 15 as visitor. Broncos “over” 9-3-1 last 13
away. Romeo 9-3 vs. line last 12 as host. Tech edge-Browns
and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON...(make-up game for Hurricane Ike
postponed game; Cincy gets a bye this week)...Texans “over” 7-1 in
‘08 and “over” 20-8-1 last 29 since late ‘06. Houston 9-4 vs. line last 13
at Reliant Stadium. Ravens “over” 8-4-1 last 12 away (3-1 TY). Tech
edge-“Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT...Jags no covers first 6 as chalk TY
but 2-2 vs. line away, now 9-5 vs. spread as visitor since LY. Lions
no covers first 3 as host TY and just 1-6 against number last 7 at Ford
Field. Jags “over” 12-3-1 last 16 away. Tech edge-slight to Jags
and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at CHICAGO...Titans have won first 8 TY, covering
7 of those. Fisher 14-6 vs. line last 20 as visitor, if dog note 16-7 mark
in role since ‘06. Bears now “over” 19-4 last 23 at Soldier Field (4-
0 TY!). Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Titans, based on
“totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND...Bills have lost last 9 SU vs. Belichick
(Buffalo 2-7 vs. line those games), failing to score more than 17 in any
of those defeats. Eight of last 9 meetings at Foxborough “under”
although the “over” came LY. Belichick “under’ 4-2-1 TY and 6-2-1
last 9 since late ‘07. Tech edge-“Under”, based on team and
series “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA...Saints have covered 6 of last 8 in
series. Saints “over” 18-9 last 27 on board. Falcs, however, how
covered first 3 at home for new HC Mike Smith. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on Saints’ “totals” trends.

ST. LOUIS at NY JETS... Rams 3-1 vs. line udner Jim Haslett, and
“under” 3-1 away TY and “under” 9-3 on road since ‘07. Jets “under”
13-8-1 last 22 on board since early ‘07. Tech edge-Rams and
“under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at MIAMI...Seattle has covered its last 2 on road after
3-8 spread mark previous 11 as visitor. Seattle “over” 5-3 TY,
“over” 8-3 last 11 since late ‘07; Miami “over” 7-4 as host since
LY (but “under” 1-3 at home for Sparano TY). Tech edge-
“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA...Pack has won and covered last 3
meetings, including opener at Lambeau. Pack “over” 9-3 last 12 on road.
Tech edge-slight to “over”, based on Pack road “totals” trends

CAROLINA at OAKLAND...Panthers “under” 15-8-1 since start of ‘07.
Raiders only 12-31-1 vs. line as host since ‘03. Tech edge-Panthers
and slight to “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Chiefs have covered 3 of last 5 in
series, although Bolts 6-3 vs. line last 9 meetings. Herm surprising
8-4 vs. line away (all as dog) since LY. Norv 9-2 as home chalk since
LY, although one of those losses was vs. Chiefs. Tech edgeslight
to Chiefs, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH...Indy “over” last 3 away, Steel
“over” 2-1 first 3 at home TY, now “over” 43-15-1 last 59 at Heinz Field
since late ‘01. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA...Giants have won and covered
last 3 meetings, all “under” as well. G-Men 10-1 vs. line last 11 away
from Meadowlands. Andy Reid still just 5-9 vs. spread last 14 as host.
Tech edge-Giants and slight to “under”, based on team and
“totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (Monday, November 10)...Note that
visiting team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series, with 49ers covering last
3 trips to desert. SF, however, no wins or covers last 5 in ‘08, and
Cards have won and covered their last 4 at U of P Stadium. Cards
“over” 23-7 last 30 on board. Tech edge-“Over" and slight to
49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.


NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-DENVER over Cleveland (11/06),
BUFFALO over New England, GREEN BAY* over Minnesota@,
INDIANAPOLIS over Pittsburgh, NEW ORLEANS* ove Atlanta@, TENNESSEE*
over Chicago, and dog in NY GIANTS-PHILADELPHIA game.

over Green Bay, PHILADELPHIA# over NY Giants.



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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Red Sheet


Oklahoma State 48 - TEXAS TECH 40 - (8:00 EST) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 3, and is still minus
3. No, this isn't a knee-jerk call for the classical letdown theory, altho one is surely tempted
to predict such a result. Bucking the Raiders' 559 ypg offense, is frightening, indeed, but
the 8th-ranked Cowboys check in with the 7th-best "O", & are just 1.7 ppg behind sizzling
Tech. Everyone knows that OkieSt, which was just a play from also defeating Texas (in
Austin), is perfect vs the pts. Taking down Harrell, Crabtree, & Co is a mighty task, but OSt
QB Robinson ranks 2nd, & 'Pokes more balanced. An epic upset!

North Carolina State 31 - DUKE 23 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Duke minus 5, and is now minus 4½. Slight
line movement means virtually nothing. The Wolfpack has dropped 4 straight games on the
field, but has extended BostonCollege, FloridaSt, & Maryland (combined 17-7 SU) in its last
3 games, with QB Wilson a bit of a force. Our "Wise Points" column on Pointwise shows
that NCSt has won the last 10 SU in this series, & no better time to catch the Imps, than off
their bruising OT loss to WakeForest. The dog has covered 10 of the last 14 games involving
NCSt, & Duke lost its last home game 49-31 (15-pt ATS loss). ACC dog.

BYU 66 - San Diego State 3 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 35½, and is now minus 36½. Yes, we
know that the weight on this one is extremely hefty, but the Aztecs taking their place alongside
the Cougars of WashingtonSt, as automatic "go-against" plays. Check out a scoring
deficit of 45-9 ppg in their last 4 RGs, losing those 4 by no less than 96 pts ATS! Sure, 8-
1 BYU is in off a couple of draining efforts, winning in the final 1:45 & 0:22, while having
AirForce & Utah on deck, but don't forget their earlier 3-0 home run, when they outscored
UCLA, Wyoming, & NewMex by a combined score of 124-3. Hall burns it up.

COLORADO 38 - Iowa State 17 - (1:30) -- Line opened at Colorado minus 9, and is now minus 10. Don't
know when the Buffaloes needed a win so badly. They've been held to a dismal 12 ppg in
their last 5 games, with a 202-80 pt deficit in their last 6 outings. Opening at 3-0, they now
stand at 4-5, with this one a must affair. And the Cyclones provide the perfect elixir, with
their 42 ppg defense over their last 6 games, & are in off a 59-pt, 682-yd defensive effort. In
last week's tight loss to TexasA&M, note the Buffaloes with a 100-RY edge. You can throw
in the revenge factor, as CU lost in heartbreaking fashion LY. Comfortable win.

SAN JOSE STATE 36 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (8:00) -- Line opened at SanJoseSt minus 8½, and is still minus
8½. No, we aren't about to let this one get away. We've been on the Spartans in the host
role for the past 3 seasons, with overwhelming success. They are an amazing Plus 177½
pts ATS since the '06 campaign, while the Bulldogs (who were a rated play on Pointwise
last week) do their part with their current 5-23 ATS mark as road dogs. As a matter of fact,
the host is 8-0 ATS, by 93½ pts, in LaTech's last 8 lined contests. Again!

Baltimore 27 - HOUSTON 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Houston minus 2½, and is now minus 1½. As we
stated on Pointwise, the fact that the Texans have been posted as chalks in this meeting, is
a bit puzzling. Sure, Houston has been an under-the-radar home force recently, with a
sensational 31 ppg scoring average in their last 9 hosters. But in this one, they take on the
2nd best defense in the NFL, & will be doing it without their superb QB Matt Schaub, who
went out last week, with a knee injury. And, defensively, the Texans rank 26th in scoring.
Check a 525-182 RY edge for the Ravens, in their last 3 games. A mild upset.

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Missouri, Arizona, SoMiss, AirForce, Texas - NFL: Chargers, Packers, Cards

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Arizona (-38 to -40); Tcu (-1 to -2½); Mich (+9 to +7½);
Texas (-24 to -25½) - NFL: NwEng (-3 to -4); Balt (+2½ to +1½); SF (+11 to +10); Jets (-7 to -8); Caro (-7½
to -8½); SD (-13½ to -14½) - TIME CHANGES: Va/WF: 3:30; OklaSt/TxTech: 8:00; Okla/A&M: 3:30; Rice/
Army: 3:00; Colo/IowaSt: 1:30; Mo/KanSt: 7:00; Kans/Neb: 2:30; Houston/Tulane: 8:00; Tex/Baylor: 12:00 -
KEY INJURIES: Ala RB Coffee: probable; Cal QB Riley (concussion) ??; CentMich QB LeFevour (ankle)
prob; Colo RB Stewart (leg) out; Fla QB Tebow (foot) prob; FlaSt RB Smith (ribs) prob; Fresno RB Mathews
(knee) doubtful; GaTech QB Nesbitt (ankle) ??; Houston WR Edwards (leg) out; Indiana QB Lewis (ankle)
??; L'Ville RB Bolen (undisclosed) ??; LSU RB Scott (ankle) prob; MD RB Scott (shoulder) ??; MichSt RB
Ringer (illness) prob; Minnesota WR Decker (ankle) prob; N'Western QB Bacher (hamstring) ??; N'Western
RB Sutton (wrist) out; Okla WR Johnson (elbow) prob; OregSt QB Moevao (shoulder) ??; PennSt QB Clark
(concussion) prob; Pitt QB Stull (concussion) prob; Purdue QB Painter (shoulder) ??; SanJose QB Reed
(tailbone) ??; SJSt RB Davis (ankle) ??; SoMiss RB Fletcher (hamstring) ??; SCaro QB Garcia (leg) prob;
Monroe QB Lancaster (leg) prob; UNLV QB Clayton (leg) doubtful; VaTech QBs Glennon & Taylor (ankles)
??: WF RB Adams (ankle) ??; - NFL: Chicago QB Orton (ankle) doubtful; Houston QB Schaub (knee) out;
Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger (shoulder) ??; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (back) doubtful

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Statfox / The Platinum Sheet

(103) N ILLINOIS at (104) BALL ST
Experts continue to question the validity of Ball State’s unblemished record at this point in the season. Now, on this Wednesday night affair, the Cardinals have a chance to show the nation just how good they are. Oddsmakers have put out a strange number for the game (-9), one that indicates that Ball State and Northern Illinois are closer than their 8-0 & 5-3 records indicate. I say for several reasons. First, Ball State was a 9-1/2 point favorite on the road when these teams played a year ago. That NIU team was 2-10. Second, the StatFox Power line for this game had it been played in Week 1 of the ’08 season would have been -16. As it stands that line is -15. Has Ball State done anything to show that NIU is closer to them now than then? Finally, the Outplay Factor Ratings show that this is simply two different level teams playing. BSU’s current rating is +14.4, a very strong number for a MAC team. The Huskies’ rating is +5.5, a decent but not elite number. It seems that oddsmakers haven’t given any home field edge here. Ball State will use this opportunity to impress the country.Play: Ball State -9

(111) TCU at (112) UTAH
I question whether the magnitude of this game between TCU and Utah warrants a road favorite line. It seems similar to a few weeks ago when BYU was mistakenly favored at TCU. Do these MWC teams not have any home field advantage? Typically, the Horned Frogs are a much different team away from home. In their two most recent trips to Utah, they lost 20-7, and 21- 7. Furthermore, Utah has won four of the last five in the head-to-head series overall. On top of that, they are at home and backed by this StatFox Super Situation: Play On - A home team (UTAH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG). (73-36 since 1992.) (67%, +33.4 units. Rating = 2*). Both StatFox Game Estimators on this week’s FoxSheet call for the outright upset. That is usually a very good sign.Play: Utah +2

Double-digit road favorite lines in conference games are usually reserved for explosive teams that can light up the scoreboard at anytime. Ohio State, averaging 24.6 PPG, is not one of those, and I question whether they are worthy of this type of respect against a Northwestern club that has been its typically feisty self in ’08. There is also the factor that the Buckeyes took last week off after the sobering loss to Penn State the week prior. This particular StatFox Super Situation shows it’s tough to come back from that: Play Against - Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - off a bye week. (54- 21 over the last 10 seasons.) (72%, +30.9 units. Rating = 3*). If you recall earlier in the season, I offered an angle that I was given by StatFox Jeff which showed that home underdogs that are eventually bowl teams cover the spread at a 65% clip. The Wildcats are certainly a bowl team and worthy of your betting dollar here.Play: Northwestern +11

(161) PENN ST at (162) IOWA
Penn State figures to be a favorite play of most public bettors this week, as they are laying just a touchdown to a 5-4 Iowa team on the road. However, I personally feel this is the toughest test of the season for the Nittany Lions, simply because of the fact that it is an easy game to overlook. The contests at Wisconsin and Ohio State were game that there were no motivation issues to be concerned with. The Hawkeyes are a dangerous team, especially in Iowa City. Plus, there are tons of great angles that indicate this is a nice matchup for them: 1) Ferentz is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA. The average score was IOWA 31.3, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 1*) 2) Paterno is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of PENN ST. The average score was PENN ST 16.0, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 1*). I’m sure Joe Paternowould be more than happy to just get out of Iowa with an outright win, never mind the 7-points. He might. He might not.Play: Iowa +7

(193) CALIFORNIA at (194) USC
The same potent StatFox Super Situation that I used to back California on last week’s best bets against Oregon will be turned on the Bears this week at USC: Play Against - Road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG), inconference games. (34-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*). Cal is nowhere near as explosive as USC, and the defensive edge for the Trojans is gargantuan. On paper, it’s 13.9 PPG allowed, but goes even further when you consider only one of USC’s opponents has surpassed the 10-point mark. This is typically the time of year that HC Pete Carroll’s team starts to roll: USC is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.The average score was USC 36.5, OPPONENT 10.9 - (Rating = 3*). Still in the BCS title hunt, I’ll back the hosts here.Play: USC -17.5


2. USC (-18.5) over CALIFORNIA 8.5
3. RUTGERS (-14.5) over SYRACUSE 8.5
4. HOUSTON (-14) over TULANE 8
5. TROY (-18) over W KENTUCKY 7
6. TEXAS (-25.5) over BAYLOR 6.5


1. TEXAS (-25.5) over BAYLOR 13
2. BUFFALO (-8) over MIAMI OHIO 11
3. NEBRASKA (+2) over KANSAS 10
4. ALABAMA (-2.5) over LSU 9.5
6. BOISE ST (-31.5) over UTAH ST 7.5


Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KENTUCKY, NORTHWESTERN) - off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. (26-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.9%, +23.8 units. Rating=5*)The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (17-1). L10 Seasons: (47-26). Since 1992: (74-46).

Play Against - A road team (SAN DIEGO ST, KANSAS ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (36-8 since 1992.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating=4*) The situation’s record this season is: (3-0). L3 Seasons: (11-3). L5 Seasons: (17-3). L10 Seasons: (24-6).

Play Against - Any team (AKRON, BOISE ST) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (38-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.9%,+28.1 units. Rating=4*) The situation’s record this season is: (2-2). L3 Seasons: (7-4). L5 Seasons: (16-5). Since 1992: (49-18).


Saturday, 11/08/2008 (131) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (132) TEXAS TECH
OKLAHOMA ST is 13-0 ATS (+13 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 38.1, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 6*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (193) CALIFORNIA vs. (194) USC
Pete Carroll is 18-2 ATS (+15.8 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of USC. The average score was Carroll 38.1, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 6*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (197) NEW MEXICO vs. (198) UNLV
Rocky Long is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival as the coach of NEW MEXICO. The average score was Long 28.3, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (153) KANSAS ST vs. (154) MISSOURI
KANSAS ST is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS ST 36.9, OPPONENT 39.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (185) BAYLOR vs. (186) TEXAS
Mack Brown is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of TEXAS.The average score was Brown 48.4, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Thursday, 11/06/2008 (111) TCU vs. (112) UTAH
TCU is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TCU 38.8, OPPONENT 10.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (143) UTAH ST vs. (144) BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 50-16 ATS (+32.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 43.6, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (195) LOUISIANA TECH vs. (196) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 29-8 UNDER (+20.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average score was Tomey 22.5, OPPONENT 25.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (161) PENN ST vs. (162) IOWA
Kirk Ferentz is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of IOWA.The average score was Ferentz 29.7, OPPONENT 17 - (Rating = 3*)


Saturday, 11/08/2008 (145) OKLAHOMA vs. (146) TEXAS A&M
The HOME TEAM is 10-4 SU & 12-2 ATS in OKLAHOMA-TEXAS A&M series since ‘93.

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (127) VIRGINIA vs. (128) WAKE FOREST
The ROAD TEAM is 11-1 ATS in VIRGINIA-WAKE FOREST series since ‘92.

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (167) ALABAMA vs. (168) LSU
The ROAD TEAM is 11-5 SU & 11-2 ATS in ALABAMA-LSU series since ‘92.

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (135) ARKANSAS vs. (136) S CAROLINA
The FAVORITE is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in ARKANSAS-S CAROLINA series since ‘93.

Saturday, 11/08/2008 (163) NOTRE DAME vs. (164) BOSTON COLLEGE
The UNDERDOG is 11-3 ATS in NOTRE DAME-BOSTON COLLEGE series since ‘92.

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Re: Newsletters 11/4 - 11/11

Statfox / The Platinum Sheet

(219) ST LOUIS at (220) NY JETS
I’m going to pull out a little “lookahead” handicapping in my backing of the Jets this week versus St. Louis. Simply put, with trips to New England and Tennessee next on the docket for New York, this week’s game becomes a near “must-win”. Now typically I don’t like that type of logic in NFL betting, but when the matchup is favorable as well, it seems to work better. In terms of the angles available for this particular game, check out the Rams’ recent performance against good offensive teams on the road: ST LOUIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more PPG since 1992. The average score was ST LOUIS 16.7, OPPONENT 32.2 - (Rating = 1*). That point differential of 15.5 PPG is one that I feel comfortable in backing. Face it, this Rams team is horrible offensively and will be until it finds a replacement for QB Marc Bulger. He was a huge dropoff from Kurt Warner as the replacement in the “Greatest Show on Turf”. Without the supporting cast any longer, he is being exposed and the results are showing in St. Louis dismal seasons.Play: NY Jets -7.5

(223) GREEN BAY at (224) MINNESOTA
Using the standard 3-points given to the home team in an NFL pointspread, we are being led to believe that Green Bay is only ½ point better than Minnesota. That is an egregious understatement. The Packers are far superior offensively to the Vikings and a much more dynamic team on both sides of the ball. The current Outplay Factor numbers show the difference. Green Bay is a +3.8. Minnesota is a +1.0. HC Mike McCarthy’s team has also been a great bet in divisional play and on the road, especially indoors (6-0ATS L6). The conditions inside are favorable for his passing offense. Green Bay should have beat Tennessee last week. It will beat Minnesota this time out, surprisingly as the underdog.Play: Green Bay +2.5

(227) KANSAS CITY at (228) SAN DIEGO
Denver is giving San Diego every chance in the world to retake the AFC West lead. Quite frankly, it’s about time that the Chargers do so, as they are clearly the best team in the division. Perhaps the bye week and the motivation of playing a divisional opponent that is weak defensively on Sunday will be the difference here. With Kansas City yielding 27.9 PPG overall and 29.2 PPG on the road, this trend will be put to the test: SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 32.5, OPPONENT 12.7 - (Rating = 1*). The margin of victory, as you can see, has been 19.8 PPG, easily enough to beat this two-touchdown spread. The Outplay Factor Rating line for this game says the spread should be -16.3 with home field built in. It may look likea strange line to have a 3-5 team playing as a 14-point favorite, but it is actually understated by a few points.Play: San Diego -14

I am turning right to the StatFox Money Line FoxSheet for validation of my backing of the Eagles in the Sunday night showdown with New York. On that sheet are 38 different systems indicating Philly should win this game. Among the best of those are these two: 1) Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13. (31-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.1%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*) 2) Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - excellent offensive team (>=5.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +21.2 units. Rating = 4*). The Eagles have gotten it going of late, and historically, those teams that do at this point continue to roll. For good measure, the StatFox Outplay Factor Line says Philly should be favored by 3.4. Thus I know the stats justify the fact that the Eagles are favored, despite the 2-game won-lost difference. McNabb and DC Jimmy Johnson get it done.Play: Philadelphia -3

Sometimes the signs are so obvious that you can’t look past them, regardless of the lofty pointspread. Arizona is on fire offensively and could be the hungriest organization in all of the NFL. The 49ers meanwhile, are in shambles. With the two meeting in a Monday night affair, which do you think is going to come to play, especially with the game being played in Arizona? Me too. This is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to show the nation how far they’ve come, and why they are in such firm control of the NFC West Division. With a 3-0 SU & ATS mark at home while outscoring teams by 17 PPG, this will be the worst team they will have hosted so far. If that’s not enough, consider that SAN FRANCISCO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The averagescore was SAN FRANCISCO 15.1, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 3*). NFL teams find confidence to be a huge momentum builder. Consider this a coming out party for an improved and confident Cardinals team.Play: Arizona -10


1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 11
2. SAN DIEGO (-14) over KANSAS CITY 10


1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 15
2. NY JETS (-7) over ST LOUIS 8


Thursday, 11/06/2008 (107) DENVER vs. (108) CLEVELAND
Play Over - Any team against the total (DENVER) - after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (34-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*) The situation’s record this season is: (3-1). L3 Seasons: (26-4). L10 Seasons: (62-26). Since 1983: (133-99).

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (225) CAROLINA vs. (226) OAKLAND
Play On - Home teams (OAKLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (30-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (6-0). L5 Seasons: (9-2). Since 1983: (61-29).

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (227) KANSAS CITY vs. (228) SAN DIEGO
Play On - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (22-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating=3*) The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (14-1). L10 Seasons: (37-21). Since 1983: (100-73).


Thursday, 11/06/2008 (107) DENVER vs. (108) CLEVELAND
DENVER is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 15.9, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 6*)

Thursday, 11/06/2008 (107) DENVER vs. (108) CLEVELAND
Romeo Crennel is 12-0 ATS (+12 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of CLEVELAND. The average score was Crennel 27.9, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 6*)

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (221) SEATTLE vs. (222) MIAMI
Mike Holmgren is 24-5 OVER (+18.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren 28.5, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (217) NEW ORLEANS vs. (218) ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 13.7, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 11/06/2008 (107) DENVER vs. (108) CLEVELAND
DENVER is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DENVER 26.1, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (211) JACKSONVILLE vs. (212) DETROIT
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 29.9, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (225) CAROLINA vs. (226) OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 18.2, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Thursday, 11/06/2008 (107) DENVER vs. (108) CLEVELAND
Mike Shanahan is 72-45 OVER (+22.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan 26.8, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (213) TENNESSEE vs. (214) CHICAGO
Jeff Fisher is 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game as the coach of TENNESSEE. The average score was Fisher 24.1, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 11/09/2008 (215) BUFFALO vs. (216) NEW ENGLAND
The UNDER is 14-4 in the NEW ENGLAND-BUFFALO series since 1999.

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (217) NEW ORLEANS vs. (218) ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 19-11 ATS vs. NEW ORLEANS since 1993.

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (231) NY GIANTS vs. (232) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-12 in the PHILADELPHIA-NY GIANTS series since 1993.

Sunday, 11/09/2008 (227) KANSAS CITY vs. (228) SAN DIEGO
The UNDER is 20-13 in the SAN DIEGO-KANSAS CITY series since 1992.

Sunday, 11/02/2008 (219) ST. LOUIS vs. (220) NY JETS
ST LOUIS is 4-0 SU & ATS in its L4 games vs. NY JETS

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