MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
I really need to throw away this ghost on one of my worst runs ever and for that, today's NBA Daily Package will be completely free of charge.
Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are entering this game with a 1-2 record and after an humiliating defeat against the Hawks on their last game by 88-95, in a game where they were up by 23 points! So, I expect a tremendous reaction for the team today, just like how it happened on their game against the Knicks.
On the other side, the Kings lost for the third time in three games, this time by 103-121 against Orlando. It's important to refer the Kings did a very good offensive game at Orlando: 39-74 FG (almost 53%) and 21 assists for 12 turnovers, but the team still lost by 18 points! Their main problem on that game was to stop Howard, who had 11-14 FG, 29 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocks. The Kings are playing without Brad Miller, who is still suspended and they have a very young frontcourt, with Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson, who lack experience at this level. Howard completely dominated the game and the Magic took advantage of that. This mismatch on the frontcourt in favor of the Magic isn't much different from the advantage on the frontcourt the Sixers will have tonight against the Kings. Elton Brand will play the role that Howard had last Saturday and these Sixers are the most dominating team on the paint of the league! They have outrebounded Toronto by 56-33, the Knicks by 61-43 and Atlanta by 48-41! The same is to say they have currently a rebound margin of +16 reb/game over their opponents! Impressive! And this will be the key of this game for the Sixers.
The Kings had a very good ball movement against Orlando, something which isn't usual on the team, who uses to struggle on that area (they were last on this area last season) and against a powerful defense of the Sixers, the number of turnovers of the Kings will surely increase and we all know how explosive are the Sixers in fast breaks.
Sacramento will play tonight their final game on this road trip, as they will face the Grizzlies and the Wolves at home on their following games, which are much easier games for them to win, which makes tonight's game as a possible lookahead game for the Kings. The line for this game is at 11,5 points for the Sixers, which is obviously a lot, but the fact they were up by 23 points against the Hawks and lost the game will make them play hard until the last second of the game, no matter how good the result is for them during the game. This emotional factor will make the Sixers look for a big blowout tonight. The Kings have lost their last two games by 26 and 18 points and against an hungry team, the spot isn't the best for them. Take Philadelphia in here.
PLAY on Philadelphia 76ers (-11,5)
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Bobcats
Detroit has been surprising everybody for their lack of defensive consistence, after all they have allowed 94 points against the Pacers and 109 points against the Wizards. More surprising is the fact the Pacers shot 49.3% FG and the Wizards 51.9% FG! After all, where is the great defense of the Pistons, who has been dominating their opponents over the years?
I think we will see that defense on tonight's game. The Pistons had two games against teams who play with on a fast tempo and who used small lineups. That evidence was referred by coach Michael Curry, while talking about Kwame Brown:
"Kwame was great, and I wish he would have gotten 15-20 minutes," Curry said. "They just went so small that we couldn't get him on the floor.
Looking at that game, we saw the Wizards using their centers for a short period of time. Etan Thomas played for 17:46 and Andray Blatche for 4:17, which confirms what Curry said. The Pistons had no chance in playing their half court game, where their defense outplays their opponents.
Today they will face the Bobcats and the last coach who took the Pistons to a NBA title: Larry Brown. So, this game won't be a game like any other and we all know how Larry Brown loves to put their teams playing good defense. The Bobcats had their first win of the season, with a home win against Miami, while shooting 53.6% FG against the soft defense of the Heat. However, on their opening game against the Cavs, the team was just able to score 79 points and shoot a ridiculous 33.8% FG!
The question of this game is to know what kind of pace we will have in here. I would say Detroit and Cleveland play on a similar style and it will much more complicated for Charlotte to shoot 54% FG like they did against Miami, as we know Detroit is a team who likes to defend. This game will be similar to the game between the Cavs and the Bobcats and Detroit will have a chance to use their powerful defense for the first time this season. Even though the Bobcats defeated Miami last Saturday, they committed 20 turnovers on that game, something which is an huge concern when you're about to face Detroit and which will make them struggle on offense. Take the under in here.
PLAY on Under 184
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
Orlando has finally woken up and this team when they have confidence is almost unstoppable on their offense. I took the over on their game at Memphis and the Magic showed the same problem they had on their opening game against the Hawks: terrible rhythm, horrible ball movement and poor shot selection. The team had 10A and 15TO vs Atlanta and 16A and 17TO vs Memphis, while scoring 85 and 84 points in those games. After that terrible performance in Memphis, on the following day Orlando scored 121 points, for 25 assists and 12 turnovers at home against Sacramento. How is it possible for a team in less than 24 hours to improve so quickly? All can be resumed on just one word: confidence! Coach Van Gundy explained that very well:
"People don't realize how fragile confidence can be. They think when you hit the major league level, confidence is a given because you have so much success, but a couple of bad nights and all the sudden you're pressing. We're still a long way from where we want to be, but I like what I saw tonight."
It's also curious to see the reaction of Van Gundy after that game, as Orlando struggled on defense, as the Kings shot 52.7% FG, but Van Gundy "said he wasn't going to be negative". His only concern was the team's offensive bounce back and that was achieved, so we will have the Magic being very confident for today's game.
They will host the Bulls, who are currently 2-1, and this game has immediately a mismatch: Howard vs Bulls' frontcourt. Chicago has been using Tyrus Thomas and Drew Gooden in the starting lineup and both players aren't capable of stopping Howard. The Superman had 29 points and 14 rebounds against the Kings and I wouldn't be surprised in seeing Howard have similar numbers tonight, as the Bulls really lack a player to stop him. The Bulls have been playing a good basketball, soft and full of rhythm. On their only road game until now, they were slaughtered by the Celtics (80-96), who play with a defensive intensiveness that the Bulls weren't used to. After that, the Bulls defeated Memphis at home, on a poor offensive performance of the team, shooting just 38.1% FG and scoring just 42 points in the first half. After that, the team improved big time on the second half, while scoring 54 points after the halftime.
I expect the Bulls to be much better on this game, as Orlando just like they did against the Kings will come to this game playing on a fast tempo and the Bulls have conditions to follow the Magic on a fast paced game. The bench of the Bulls has a lot of players capable of shooting from the perimeter: Gordon, Hinrich and Nocioni and come to this, I expect both teams to be very close or even cross the 100 points mark. Last season, Orlando went 4-0 Over on home games with lines below 200 points after winning an home game and today I expect the same to happen. Take the over in here.
PLAY on Over 196
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
This pick has to go with the value we have on the totals line in here. 197,5 points for a game involving the Warriors makes the over have immediatly value. The Warriors didn't play a single game last season, with a totals line below 200 points and the only time they played a game with a line on 200 points, the game ended 112-95. Memphis has gone under the total posted the three times they have already played this season and it's important to refer this team isn't a run and gun team like they were last season. I've watched their game against Orlando and the Grizzlies are a team who likes to play with a organized offense. However, that's impossible to do against the Warriors, as we all know Golden State gives so much space to their opponents that it's impossible not to try to take advantage of that.
The Warriors are coming from a 105-97 win over the Nets, in a very tough spot for them: they had to travel the whole coast to play at Toronto, they went to overtime in that game against the Raptors and they were playing on the following night at New Jersey. The team was able to defeat the Nets, but obviously they struggled offensively: Maggete 3-13 FG, Harrington 4-13 FG and the team just shot 42.1% FG, 36.8% 3pts and just 65.4% FT! Now with a full day of rest, I expect the offense of Golden State to bounce back and this young team of Memphis will have no other chance than follow the rhythm of the Warriors. It's curious to see that last season, the games between these two teams had lines of 226.5, 223.5, 230 and 229.5 points, while today's game has a line of just 197,5 points!
The Warriors are able to score 100 points or more in almost every game they play and even though this team of the Grizzlies has managed not to allow 100 points or more on their first three games of the season, I doubt that will happen today against the frenetic offense of the Warriors. Take the over in here.
PLAY on Over 197,5
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Redskins -2.5 over Steelers
Washington's Jason Campbell is starting to look like a big time NFL QB. The Redskins have a great defense and are tough to beat at home. Pittsburgh has not looked as sharp on offense this season and will be without their starting LT which will have Big Ben on the move avoiding sacks all night. I would say these teams are about evenly matched, but the homefield will give the Skins the victory.
Kings +11.5 over Sixers
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Anybody see Kelso's 50*? Thanks!
I don't think I want to play any more of Kelso's 50 unit picks, at least not his pro picks. Lost Jax yesterday, SF and NYJ last week and CHI the week before!
50 unit Game of the Month
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -2½