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NFL Total thoughts week 9

NFL Total thoughts week 9

Two weeks posting : 7-1 (last week 3-1) Damn those exhibition games in London. I was talked out of this game and with with Jax and jax Over instead oops. Luckily Giants and Under bailed me out.

NyBretts @ Beefalo -5.5, 42
Battle royale for the AFC East with the in state rivalry. Buffalo has been stellar with fast strong defense, solid special teams, awesome receivers and a young winning QB. THe Jets have the legend "Father Time" who loves to make as many touchdowns as interceptions. High on charisma and media hype this team has a shot against any team in their division. I expect this to be a good battle with turnovers leading to touchdowns. Everyone has been riding the Bills bandwagon and finally got burned last week in Miami. I expect them to come out firing at the start of this home game and I expect the Jets to try to keep pace by throwing the ball all over the place causing interceptions and deep receptions/touchdowns. The Bills have also been turning the ball over a lot by fumbling in the last three games. The early sharps seem to think that the Jets can keep up with the points the Bills are going to shell out, because the line has moved off of the key number -6 in favor of the Jets even though the pubic % of bets are on the Bills. THis reverse line movement early leads me to believe that this game will go OVER the 42 and the Jets may cover or win straight up.
Over 42 (NYJ 33 Buffalo 27)

Jax @ Cin +8, 39.5
I am biased because I constantly make money on the Jax Over, save last week (they had their chances and should have covered the over). I think that the jax defense in overrated and the offense in underrated. With the spread being 25% of the total leads me to believe the oddsmakers expect the Bungles to get maybe two touchdowns. Hopefully they keep up their end on the game, because you know the Jags are hungary for a win and want to take out their frustrations on this winless team. They are good for at least 4 touchdowns (26-28 points). Bring it Ocho-cinco, and push this game OVER 39.5 (jax 28 cin 17)

More to come.
As always please share your thoughts.


jmaydc
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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 9

Afternoon games all look like unders for me. I know this post is pretty late since kickoff is in ten-twenty minutes.

Mia +4 DEN 50
I like this game to be a defensive battle. Denver's coach was humiliated last game by the Pats on national television. Expect the bye week was used to shore up his defense. Denver is also a little banged up in the RB. The weather will be nice so they will for likley to go for long kicks. The public has pushed this game toward the over along with early sharp money. (There might be a little steam move here.) Hit the OVER and wiat for the public to overreact and hammer the UNDER with triple the amount. THis will be tight to the line (within 3 points of 48).
UNDER 50       Mia 24-Den 23

Phi @ SEA +7, 43
I like the philly defense here. Seattle's offense in anemic. The only way this stays close is if the refs keep the score low. With 80% of the population and most of the early money on Philly, with no movement of the key number of 7, and with pouring rain and unpredictable winds, I like UNDER 43.

Leans all under this afternoon
OVER tonight

jmaydc
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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 9

11-1 posted record for totals.

Pit +2 @WAS 36.5
Untill the trend is broken...bet the OVER on MNF. I think with both presidential canitates speaking at halftime, they are going to throw up a couple more scores before halftime to keep the viewers entertained. Both offensesand defenses matchup well. Washington can run while pit stops the run. Washington fumbles more, but throws no picks. Big Ben is sacked more and has less passing yards and a worse completion percentage, however Campbell has not faced the likes of a Pittsburg defense. I think the game will be won or lost with the special teams. The Steelers have not missed a field goal yet (10/10), while the Redskins have kicked twice as many and only made 76% of them (16/21). Washington also has  better kick return and punt return stats, but a weak punt return protection. I think these special teams differences will come into play, giving more scoring chances form a short field. The weather will be chilly during this evening game, with 10% chance of rain from an overcast sky with light 4mph winds cross field from the east. Pit 20-Was 17
OVER 36.5 

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