FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

JEFFERSONSPORTS

PHILADELPHIA -8

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Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
Golden State (+7) over TORONTO

Toronto opened the season with a seemingly impressive win at Philadelphia as a 5 point dog, but that victory was the result of variance in 3-point shooting, as the Raptors made 10 of 16 from long range while Philly only knocked down 5 of 20 from beyond the arc. Had each player made his career percentage on 3-pointers then Toronto would have lost by 4 points, which is exactly what my ratings had predicted for that game. Golden State, meanwhile, played pretty well in a 5 point loss as a 7 point dog against New Orleans in their opener and the Warriors apply to a very strong 40-8-3 ATS subset of a 70-28-3 ATS early season angle. Toronto, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29-73-4 ATS home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win. The Warriors aren’t going to be quite as good this year, as the net of losing Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (injured) and adding Corey Maggette is about -2 ½ points. However, the Warriors still look like an average NBA team and they still have their emotionial leading inStephen Jackson, who usually gets his team fired up after a loss. The Warriors are 62-64-2 ATS in all games with Jackson playing, but they are better after a loss (30-21 ATS) than they are after a win (30-43-2 ATS) thanks to Jackson’s personality. Golden State is 29-9 straight up when rested after a loss with Jackson and 18-7 ATS in those games when not favored by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Toronto by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Golden State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +8 or more.
2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +8.

4 Star Selection
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over New York

The 76ers are coming off an opening night upset loss to Toronto, but random 3-point shooting variance was the reason for that outcome (see the Golden State-Toronto analysis) and Philadelphia applies to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator in addition to a 35-3 ATS subset of a 156-86-2 ATS all season situation. My ratings favor Philadelphia by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Philadelphia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
4-Stars at -8 or less, 3-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 and 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.

3 Star Selection
Orlando (-7 ½) over MEMPHIS

Orlando made a living last season by beating up on bad teams and I expect that trend to continue tonight, as the Magic rebound from their opening game loss to Atlanta. The Magic were 26-8 ATS last season after a loss and coach Stan Van Gundy’s teams are 70-44-2 ATS after a loss in his coaching career. Van Gundy also makes a habit of beating the teams that he’s supposed to beat, as his teams are 48-15-4 ATS as a favorite or pick against a team with a win percentage of less than .444, including 17-6-1 ATS last season with the Magic. In addition to the Van Gundy coaching trends, the Magic apply to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator while Memphis applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Orlando by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Orlando in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or -8 points and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ points. 3-Stars at -8 or less, 4-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2.

3 Star Selection
Denver (-2) over L.A. CLIPPERS

The Clippers have Baron Davis and little else to work with and they appear to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference again this season. Denver isn’t likely to be as good as they were last season, but the suspension of the grossly overrated Carmelo Anthony gives us some line value. The Nuggets played about 2 ½ points better per 48 minutes with Anthony on the bench than they did when he was in the game last season and that’s a pattern that has existed since he entered the league. Anthony is an above average offensive player, but the Nuggets’ defense is 5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s not. Denver nearly beat the Jazz in Utah without Anthony in their opener and they should be a bad Clippers team tonight given that they apply to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -2 ½ or -3 points. 3-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3.

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Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections

6000* NBA DOMINATOR PLAY OF THE MONTH
Toronto -7

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The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections

91% NBA POWER PLAY TOTALS WINNER
Sacramento and Miami OVER 206

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Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Paul Leiner

200* Orl/Mem Over 190

25* Spurs -2

10* Knicks +8

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Primetime Sports Advisors

5 units San Antonio -1.5
5 units Chicago Blackhawks -135

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