NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

Wednesday's NBA Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs

It’s been a long offseason but the party on the hardwood has finally gotten underway. After last night’s TNT extravaganza, ESPN is now at the plate with a televised double-header. Beginning with an 8:00 p.m. EDT ballgame between Phoenix and San Antonio, the evening will cap off in a battle over Los Angeles bragging rights.

While it’s probably smart to let the new season marinate a bit before doing extensive breakdowns let’s analyze what Wednesday brings to the table.

Phoenix at San Antonio – 8:00 p.m. EDT

A rematch of the first round pairing in the 2008 playoffs will have Phoenix bent on revenge against San Antonio. The Suns dropped that best-of-seven series, winning just one contest at home by the score of 105-86.
   
The first order of business resides on the bench where sharp shooting Manu Ginobili finds himself sitting out for an estimated two months after undergoing offseason ankle surgery. Ginobili is coming off his hottest season to date, averaging 19.5 PPG, while shooting 40-percent from downtown, but playing an extended 31 minutes per game can do that to a player of this caliber.

So who takes over Ginobili’s spot? Roger Mason. The four-year vet out of Virginia averaged 1.3 three-pointers in 21.3 minutes of play per game when he was with Washington in 2008. Whether or not Mason can make the transition into the Spurs offensive system in a timely matter is up for debate but expect the shooting guard to become a valued asset as soon as possible.

Phoenix still has Steve Nash, Raja Bell and Amar’e Stoudemire to pick up the pace and with newly installed head coach, Terry Porter leading the way, expectations of a tighter ship on the defensive end should be welcomed. Under ex-coach Mike D’Antoni, Phoenix may have scored 110.1 PPG last season but it was also responsible for letting opponents score 105 PPG.

The Suns have covered four of the last seven head-to-head games, while the ‘over’ has gone 6-3 in the last nine. A total of 198.3 points per contest has been installed in the last 10 games, with a high hovering at 204 points and a low at 191.

The underdog is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine head-to-head games and the ‘under’ is 8-0 in San Antonio’s last eight.

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 p.m. EDT

While the Lakers are back to the drawing board after losing to the World Champion, Celtics in six games last season, the Clippers are hoping not to repeat a 23-59 SU season as was the case in ’07-08.

The Lakers have dominated the Clips with a 7-3 SU and ATS record in the last 10, taking the last four head-to-head battles. Some concern over the condition of star guard, Kobe Bryant’s hyperextended right knee should play into the number that books will set for this contest (stay tuned when then number is released). Latest reports from several credible media services indicate that Bryant will be ready to start but it’s still information worthy of taking note of.

There are plenty of reasons why the Lake Show will once again make a trip to the Finals. Starting center Andrew Bynum raked in some impressive numbers in only 35 games last season (13.1 PPG with 10.2 RPG) before shutting it down after partially dislocating his knee cap. His return coupled with the maturation of young point guard, Jordan Farmer should be major compliments to rest of this stacked roster (with depth).

The Clippers have a new look to go with the new season. Bringing Marcus Camby over from Denver to play in conjunction with big man, Chris Kaman should help out on snatching boards. Remember that the Clips where one of the worst rebounding teams last year, averaging 40.1 bounds per game while its opponents grabbed 43.6 RPG.

The starting five for the Clippers, at least on paper, looks promising to say the least. Health is obviously an issue but get Baron Davis to lead the charge with Cuttino Mobley and Al Thornon completing the starting rotation and investors should be ready to collect (at least compared to last season’s money pit).

While it’s a new season, the Clippers are still coming off a dismal 2-12 ATS stint in their last 14 home games. The ‘over’ has clocked in five times in the last seven times these two teams met on the parquet floor.

Overtime Tips

-- Denver meets up in Utah at 9:00 p.m. EDT. Check back for the latest lines as they become available.

-- The Jazz have taken the last three games against the Nuggets, while the ‘over’ has been golden, cashing in six times in the last seven meetings.

-- Denver’s star forward, Carmelo Anthony is ineligible to play until Nov. 1, serving a two-game suspension for drunk driving back on April.

-- As for defense, don’t expect the Nuggets to play with much after Marcus Camby said his farewells to greener pastors out West. Allen Iverson, Anthony and J.R. Smith will look to continue the up-tempo West Coast run and gun offense. Totals for these games should once again climb well above the 200 point range.

-- Inside scoring is the name of the game for Utah. Expect starters Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur to continue pounding the inside game, with bench players Matt Harping, Andrei Kirilenko and point guard Ronnie Price supplementing that inside attack.

-- The Jazz head coach Jerry Sloan does have an important decision to make. It concerns plugging in rookie center Kosta Koufos behind Okur and/or Boozer and how this will affect power forward, Paul Millsap’s playing time. This should be an interesting story line to watch play out.

-- Utah is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings against Denver. The Jazz have been favored by books seven times in those 10 games.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

Hot and Cold Bets - Week 1
By Matt Fargo

Wednesday – Miami Heat at New York Knicks

The biggest disappointment of the season last year heads to New York to take on the new-look Knicks. Miami finished last season an NBA worst 15-67 which is remarkable considering that the Heat were the NBA Champions the season before. Miami was the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 91.4 ppg but it is now healthy and ready to regain its dominance. The Knicks are with a new coach in Mike D’Antoni and with that comes a new system. His former Suns were the third highest scoring team from last season and they were the only team that shot 50 percent from the floor so expect New York to improve its 96.9 ppg average from last year. The Knicks went 50-32 ‘Over’ last season and with more running and a bad defense, we should see more games flying over.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

Tips and Trends

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs


Suns: Phoenix did not get the opportunity to play with a full squad for most of the preseason due to a rash of injuries, as Amare Stoudemire missed five games, Leandro Barbosa missed four and Shaquille O'Neal and Steve Nash each sat out three. That gives new head coach Terry Porter a big challenge right out of the gates. O'Neal will also get an immediate opportunity to get revenge against a Spurs team that he felt was cowardly in last year's playoffs.

Suns are 7-19-3 ATS in their last 29 Wednesday games.
Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
   
Key Injuries - C Amare Stoudemire (finger) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 90

Spurs (-2, O/U 187.5): Time is running out for San Antonio to put together one more NBA championship run as the NBA's oldest team centered around 32-year-old Tim Duncan. The good news is that the Spurs have won titles in the last three odd-numbered years this decade. The bad news is that they will need to figure out a way to win early in the season without Manu Ginobili, who is coming offseason heel/ankle surgery and won't be back until December at the earliest.

The UNDER is 9-0 in San Antonio's last 9 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-3 in San Antonio's last 11 Wednesday games.

Key Injuries - G Manu Ginobili (ankle) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 97 (Side Play of the Day)


Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers

Lakers (-8.5, O/U 203): The Lakers opened up the season with a 96-76 rout of the Blazers on Tuesday night behind 23 points from Kobe Bryant and 15 from Pau Gasol. Andrew Bynum made his return to the starting lineup for the first time since January due to a dislocated kneecap and totaled eight points and three rebounds. Bynum's highly-anticipated showdown with Portland's Greg Oden never really materialized because Oden left late in the first half with a foot injury.

Lakers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games vs. Pacific Division.
The UNDER is 9-3 in LA's last 12 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 104 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Clippers: The newest addition to the team will be counted on from the start of the season regardless of whether or not he is dealing with a painful finger injury. Insiders expect Baron Davis to play in the team's season opener and should instantly make his teammates better, most notably small forward Al Thornton, who will be his main running mate up and down the floor. Thornton was named to the All-Rookie first team a year ago and will be a full-time starter, replacing the oft-injured Corey Maggette.

Clippers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games.
The UNDER is 21-8 in LA's last 29 games vs. Pacific Division.

Key Injuries - PG Baron Davis (finger) is probable.
F Tim Thomas (groin) is doubtful.
C Marcus Camby (foot) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95


TORONTO (0 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (0 - 0) at ORLANDO (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
ORLANDO is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW JERSEY (0 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 32-47 ATS (-19.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 6-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 0) at NEW YORK (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 33-47 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (0 - 0) at DETROIT (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (0 - 1) at OKLAHOMA CITY (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) after a division game since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 133-175 ATS (-59.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (0 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 70-90 ATS (-29.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (0 - 0) at SAN ANTONIO (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 453-389 ATS (+25.1 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 58-41 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 9-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 11-7 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (0 - 0) at HOUSTON (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (0 - 0) at UTAH (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 0) at GOLDEN STATE (0 - 0) - 10/29/2008, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-48 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 


7:00 PM ATLANTA vs. ORLANDO
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Orlando is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Orlando is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Atlanta


7:00 PM NEW JERSEY vs. WASHINGTON
New Jersey is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Jersey's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey


7:00 PM TORONTO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home


7:30 PM MIAMI vs. NEW YORK
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
New York is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami


8:00 PM INDIANA vs. DETROIT
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Indiana is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Detroit is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home


8:00 PM MILWAUKEE vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Milwaukee is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


8:00 PM PHOENIX vs. SAN ANTONIO
Phoenix is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
San Antonio is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Phoenix


8:00 PM SACRAMENTO vs. MINNESOTA
Sacramento is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Sacramento is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games


8:30 PM MEMPHIS vs. HOUSTON
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Memphis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Memphis


9:00 PM DENVER vs. UTAH
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Utah is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver


10:30 PM LA LAKERS vs. LA CLIPPERS
LA Lakers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Lakers are 18-5 SU in their last 23 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers


10:30 PM NEW ORLEANS vs. GOLDEN STATE
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans

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Re: NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

Toronto (42-45, 41-45 ATS) at Philadelphia (42-46, 45-40 ATS)

The 76ers qualified for the postseason for the first time in three years last season, but bowed out in the first round in six games, losing to the Pistons. Including that playoff series, Philadelphia capped 2007-08 in a 2-8 SU and ATS slump, and the straight-up winner went 14-0 ATS in the team’s last 14 contests going back to the regular season.

Like the Sixers, Toronto struggled down the stretch last year, losing six of its final eight games both SU and ATS. That included a five-game, opening-round playoff series loss to the Magic (2-3 ATS), the second straight year the Raptors made the postseason but got bounced in the first round.

The Raptors are 7-2 against the 76ers going back to March 2006 (5-3-1 ATS), including 4-1 (3-1-1 ATS) at the Wachovia Center. Going back several years, Toronto is 10-3-1 ATS in Philadelphia, and the visitor is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll in this rivalry

The Sixers were average at the Wachovia Center last year, going 23-21 SU and 21-21-2 ATS, including 1-2 SU and ATS against Detroit in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Toronto struggled south of the border a season ago, going 16-28 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (playoffs included).

The Raptors enter the season on a 1-6 ATS slump on the road, but they’re 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games on Wednesday. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 on Wednesday, but its ongoing 2-8 ATS slump has all come against Eastern Conference teams.

The over is 5-0 in the last five series meetings between these teams, but the under is 9-2-1 in Toronto’s last 12 overall and 5-0 in Philly’s last five at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO


Indiana (36-46, 39-42-1 ATS) at Detroit (69-30, 56-42 ATS)

The Pacers closed out last season with a flourish, winning 11 of their last 16 games (10-6 ATS), but it wasn’t enough to get them back into the postseason tournament for the first time since 2006. Indiana’s current playoff drought comes on the heels of nine consecutive postseason appearances from 1998-2006.

The Pistons advanced to the Eastern Conference finals for the sixth consecutive season a year ago, but for the third straight year time failed to get the job done, losing in six games to the eventual NBA champion Celtics. Despite failing against Boston, Detroit ended last year on a 19-9 SU run (17-11 ATS), including finishing the regular season 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS.

Detroit swept the four-game season series from the Pacers last year, going 3-1 ATS, and dating back to 2007, the Pistons have won six straight from Indiana (5-1 ATS), all as a favorite. Also, the Pistons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Motown.

Indiana enters this season in ATS funks of 6-16-1 against Central Division rivals and 2-6 on Wednesday. The Pistons have also struggled on Wednesdays (3-8 ATS last 11), but they’ve cashed in 14 of their last 20 home games (playoffs included).

For the Pacers, the under is on streaks of 7-2 overall (all against the Eastern Conference) and 4-0 versus the Central Division. Detroit sports “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 22-8 versus the East and 4-0 at home. Finally, the under is 33-11 in the last 44 series clashes overall and 6-1 in the last seven battles at the Palace of Auburn Hills.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER


Phoenix (56-31, 41-42-4 ATS) at San Antonio (65-34, 46-50-3 ATS)

The Spurs eliminated Phoenix from the playoffs for the second straight year and the fourth time in the past five seasons, taking down the Suns in five games in the first round. However, after knocking out New Orleans in a seven-game conference semifinal series, San Antonio was unable to capture its fifth Western Conference title, losing to the Lakers in five games. Gregg Popovich’s team closed out the regular season strong, winning 12 of its final 15 games (9-6 ATS).

After getting swept by the Spurs, the Suns lost head coach Mike D’Antoni to the Knicks and replaced him with Terry Porter, who is expected to bring more of a defensive mindset to Phoenix. Porter takes over a team that has made four consecutive playoff appearances and one that went 15-5 (12-7-1 ATS) in its final 20 regular-season games a year ago.

Including a pair of playoff series, San Antonio is 11-7 against Phoenix over the past two years, but 7-9-2 ATS. The underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.

Heading into this season, Phoenix sports ATS streaks of 13-6-2 against the Western Conference and 7-19-3 on Wednesdays, while San Antonio is on pointspread runs of 9-4 on Wednesdays and 4-1-1 at home.

The Spurs had the second-best home record in the Western Conference last year at 41-8 (28-19 ATS), while the Suns were a solid road team (25-19, 21-10-4 ATS).

The Spurs stayed under the total in each of their final eight games last year and the under is 4-1 in their last five at home, 7-0 in their last seven against the Pacific Division and 8-3 in their last 11 on Wednesdays. The under is also 6-3 in the last nine Spurs-Suns battles and 5-2 in Phoenix’s last seven regular-season contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Denver (50-36, 43-43 ATS) at Utah (60-34, 49-41-4 ATS)

The Nuggets made the playoffs for the fifth straight season last year, but for the fifth straight time they failed to get out of the first round, as they were humiliated in a four-game loss to the Lakers (0-4 ATS). In fact, going back to 1995, Denver has lost six consecutive playoff series. On the bright side, George Karl’s squad ended last year’s regular season on a 13-6 SU run and a 15-8 ATS romp.

Like the Nuggets, Utah’s 2007-08 season also ended at the hands of the Lakers, After knocking out the Rockets in six games in Round 1, the Jazz took Los Angeles to six games before bowing out. The Jazz went just 3-6-1 ATS in their final 10 playoff games, though they did close out the regular season on a 9-2 ATS roll.

Denver took the first series meeting from the Jazz last year, winning 120-109 as a three-point home chalk. However, Utah won the last three both SU and ATS, including two blowout victories in Salt Lake City (132-105 and 124-97). The Jazz are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 head-to-head battles (5-1 SU and ATS in Utah), with the winner cashing in all 11 contests.

Also, in this rivalry, the favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Utah was money at the Energy Solutions Arena last year, going 41-6 SU and 29-14-4 ATS, while the Nuggets won just 17 of 43 road games, going 19-24 ATS (2-5 ATS in the last seven).

For the Nuggets, the under is on streaks of 8-1 overall and 4-1 on the road, but the over is 36-15 in the team’s last 51 games against Northwest Division rivals. Also, the over is 4-1 in Utah’s last five overall and 5-2 in its last seven at home. Finally, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Jazz-Nuggets battles overall and 6-2 in the last eight clashes in Salt Lake City.

ATS ADVANTAGE:  UTAH and OVER

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Re: NBA News and Notes Wednesday, October 29

NBA Research Wednesday
By IndianCowboy

Toronto vs. Philadelphia

Kapono is questionable for this game for the Raptors and Dalembert is probable for Philly. The line opened up at -5.5 and has remained steady there as has the total around 190. The public favors the home Sixers slightly mroe in this game and Philly beat this team by 4 at home last year 99-95. Toronto of course has a sore taste in their mouth after their series loss to Orlando and Philly has a sore taste after losing in six to the Magic. The last five times these two teams have played the games have gone over.

Orlando vs. Atlanta

As you know I'm a Hawks fan and the spread here sits at -7.5 and the total has risen two points since its opening to 202 in many books. Of course, this doesn't mean anything as I took the Blazers and they fell short last night to the Lakers. Williams is suspended for this game and Smith is listed as probable. I took the Magic last year in the early going as this team loves to run up the score and similar to the Lakers I would not be surprised to see them come out of the gun fast. Bless the Hawks heart, but this team but this team struggled on the road. Orlando does not return Arroyo, Evans or Dooling and the Hawks of course have Bibby, Johnson and Horoford returning. I wouldn't be surprised if this total goes over as well as usually that is what happens when these two teams meet in Orlando.

Washington vs. New Jersey

The Nets look very different than what they did last year with the addition of Li, Simmons and trading Jefferson to the Bucks. Washington looks relatively the same but won't have Arenas for quite some time but with Butler and Jamison this team certainly has some pop. Note, that Haywood is out for this game because of surgery. Yi and Harris are probable while Najera is doubtful for this game. I lean slightly on the under in this game.

Miami vs. New York

How often do you see the Heat getting love from the public on the road as they are the slight dogs but the public seems to be taking them with the points. Jeffries is out for the Knicks. D'Antonio begins his stint with the Knicks. With Robinson, Crawford, Lee and Richardson and Randolph this team does have talent to compete and undoubtedly the Knicks will be putting forth an up tempo game which D'Antoni likes so much. Erik Spoelstra, the first Filipino-American head coach in the league and once video guy for the Heat is taking the reigns. Michael Beasley will make a quick impact on this team as well. The only spot the Heat will need some help is with their point guard play between Quinn, Chalmers and Banks. What is nuts is that this line opened up at 196 off shore and it quickly moved up to 209 where it sits now. Of course, I leaned on the over, but with such a leap, it has lost its value a bit.

New Orleans vs. Golden State

Whenever you lose a caliber player like Baron Davis, your team might not have the pop that it once had. Such is the case with the Warirors as they have lost Davis as well as Monte Ellis coming into this game. Although they have Maggette signed and Stephen Jackson, the fact that this team lost quite possibly the heart and soul of the team to another in-state rival in the Clippers certainly doesn't bode well for this squad. New Orleans on the other hand has remained steady with their core group and will look to take it to the next level this year. As per this game, I have to lean on the Hornets here despite it being a public favorite with a slightly lean on the under.

Lakers vs. Clippers

Bryant is probable in this game, Thomas is probable as well for the Clippers and of course the newbie Erik Gordon makes his debut for the Clippers. However, I'm to a point now where you do not wager against the Lakers given the talent that they have as from top to bottom this team is stacked and they are two deep in every position which is highly impressive. There has been a dip down in the total as well given the injuries. The question remains, how many points can these young Clippers score and will this total rise above or below? In other words, will the Clippers be an active dog to have this total go over or will they likely get beat fairly handily and this game go under.

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