Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Texas at Texas Tech
Last week the Longhorns beat Oklahoma State 28-24 while the Red Raiders beat up on Kansas 63-21. This is a HUGE Big 12 match up where the winner takes all and will be alone in 1st place in the Big 12. This is the Longhorns last game of a killer stretch playing Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State, while this is the beginning of a stretch of tough games for the Red Raiders, as after Texas they play Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are led by QB Colt McCoy (2285 yds 21 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are Jordan Shipley (58 rec 737 yds 10 TD) and Quan Cosby (56 rec 688 yds 4 TD). McCoy is also the leading rusher of the Longhorns (412 yds 7 TD) but RB Chris Ogbonnaya (309 yds 3 TD) is the feature RB. The Red Raiders are led by QB Graham Harrell (3147 yds 28 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are Michael Crabtree (60 rec 7954 yds 14 TD) and Detron Lewis (45 rec 579 yds 1 TD). The Red Raiders rushing attack is led by Baron Batch (537 yds 4 TD).
Staff Pick: Will there be any defense played in this game? The Red Raiders rank 1st in passing yards per game, and 3rd in points scored, while the Longhorns rank 10th in passing yards per game and 5th in points scored. The Longhorns have the nation's 43rd ranked defense while the Red Raiders rank 58th. The young secondary of Texas is giving up 265.5 passing yards per game, 9th-most in the FBS, which is not good facing the dynamic offense of the Red Raiders. McCoy has a completion percentage of 81.8%, which leads the nation. The key to this game will be which team's D can get to the QB. If each has time to throw this game will be a shootout. The punters in this game should get a pretty good rest. Considering that the defenses of both teams will be trying to stop the pass, the rushing game may be a key and if either team can run the ball and keep the opposing team's offense on the sidelines they will have a big advantage. Huge shock here, but look for a high scoring game, but for the Longhorns to continue their winning ways and had the Red Raiders their first loss of the season.
Longhorns 48 Red Raiders 45
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Miami Florida vs. Virginia
The Miami Hurricanes coming off a big win over Wake Forest last week travel north to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. Although the Hurricanes are not one of the top echelon teams as in the past they have put a nice string of three wins together and come in at 5-3 SU overall. Their offense has been a pleasant surprise this season as they are averaging 30.5 points per game. It's their defense that has caused them problems giving up 26.7 points per game when they have been on the road.
Like the Hurricanes the Virginia Cavaliers come into this one red hot winning four in a row and are coming off a big win over Georgia Tech last week. Overall the Cavaliers are 5-3 SU in including 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. After averaging over 24 points per game last season the Cavalier offensive performance has dropped off this season putting up only 17.7 per game. Their defense has been tough at home though allowing only 17 per game.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: VIRGINIA coach Groh is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival. VIRGINIA coach Groh is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents. VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons.
The cavaliers have the best QB and the best RB (Cedric Peerman) on the field in this game and have the capability of making the kind of plays that can turn a close game into and easy win. I'm taking Virginia in this one.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
James Patrick Sports
Tulane vs. LSU
The LSU Tigers are the defending National Champions and when the defending National Champion is coming off a straight-up and ATS loss they are 31-16-1 ATS and that includes 15-9 if favored by -14 + points. Les Miles and his Tigers are also 8-1-1 ATS off a straight up loss. Tulane is demoralized as we found out the hard way last weekend when they trailed Rice 35-0 at the half. These two schools are just 75 miles apart and LSU has won 16 in a row in series. Tigers rev-it-up to prepare for huge game against Alabama upcoming.
Play: LSU Tigers
Texas vs. Texas Tech
Mike Leach gets it done against the odds makers as he has cashed 8 of 10 ATS as a Big XII home underdog. Leach’s teams are also 12-0 straight up at home when undefeated. Longhorns are in their fourth game of a horrendous stretch against big time competition and for the first time in three weeks they venture out onto the Big XII road. Colt McCoy had better be ready for an improved TT defense that has already amassed 14 picks. Series has seen the home team cash in 7 of 10 games and Lubbock has always been a tough site for the visitor as evidenced by Leach’s 28-19 home ATS record. Red Raiders are coming and Longhorns Beware!
Play: Texas Teach Red Raiders
Utah vs. New Mexico
The Lobos are 4-0 as a double-digit home underdog and post a 5-1 ATS record in game #10. The undefeated Utes have plans to be a BCS Buster while the Lobos are in serious danger of not making a Bowl Game for the first time since 2000. New Mexico is 13-7 in their final home game and Utah does have a huge assignment in 5 days with TCU. Utes have dropped 3 of last 4 in Albuquerque’s University Stadium. Tough to be an undefeated road favorite this time of the season as Lobos under Rocky Long have pulled some big upsets in the past.
Play:New Mexico Lobos
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Auburn @ Mississippi
Play On: Auburn (+)
Mississippi has been popular in this space in 2008. We’ve gone with them or against them in at least five of their eight games this year. Last week, I detailed a few reasons on why the Rebels should go into Arkansas and get a solid win. And that looked to be the case with Ole Miss up by 9 with just over 1:30 to play. But that dreaded backdoor touchdown made the score closer than how the game played out. And in fact, after Arkansas scored that late TD to cut the Rebels’ lead to 23-21, they recovered an onside kick to make things interesting, but came up short. We passed this game on the late phones because Arkansas running back Michael Smith was cleared to play after sustaining a concussion the week before. Smith did his damage going for 129 yards and a TD on 19 carries, but Ole Miss played an inspired game despite only winning the game by 2 points.
The Rebels have had a lot of highs and lows this year, especially over their last five games. They lost at home as a 7 ½-point favorite to Vanderbilt and then won at Florida as 22-point underdogs. Off that big win, they lost as a home favorite to South Carolina and then went to Alabama and lost by 4. Off that near miss, they hold on to beat Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t just another SEC game for them. It was a game in which they put a lot of passion into for their head coach Houston Nutt. “I think everybody on the team wanted to give 100 percent so we’d win it for him,” Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead said. And we’ve seen the Rebels play flat off a win all year as they’ve yet to win back-to-back games. They currently have 4 wins with 4 games to play, and if they want to get to a bowl game, they’ll need to win two more along the way. And that is something they know is very attainable with Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi St coming up. So the desire to win here may not be as strong as it should be, especially with Auburn off three consecutive losses and the Rebels off the big win for their coach.
Auburn is in turmoil. There’s no denying that fact. After firing Tony Franklin, head coach Tommy Tuberville is also looking over his shoulder. And it’s quite possible that his team has quit on him. But we won’t know that for sure until this game goes final. This is Auburn’s season right here. They need to win this game badly. Tuberville and Franklin never saw eye-to-eye on the quarterback situation, and Tuberville handed the offense over to Kodi Burns once Franklin was dismissed. And after their loss at West Virginia, Tuberville ditched the finesse of the spread and is going back to power football. On Sunday, he put his team through a tough practice according to tailback Brad Lester. "That's probably the hardest we've gone all season, almost like a two-a-day practice." Tuberville has the focus of his team heading into this game, but the same cannot be said of Houston Nutt. After his satisfying win over his old team, Nutt said: “It’s going to be a happy plane ride and a happy practice tomorrow.” Play Auburn plus the points.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Army + over Air Force
Army has covered in five straight games with outright wins in three of the last four games. The Black Knights average 246 rushing yards per game and Army has posted excellent defensive numbers, allowing just 304 yards per game. Air Force is 6-2 on the season and after a Thursday night win last week the Falcons have had a little extra time to prepare for this game but the travel is significant. This will be the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons and after poor results recently in this series this will be a key game for Army. Air Force is a tough team to go against given the big production potential on the ground but this looks like a difficult spot to cover as a road favorite.
Join Nelly’s Sportsline for a winning play in one of the first games on the schedule. If you are looking for an early afternoon game we’ve got the pick for you. Kick off November with a winning pick as Nelly’s is ready to start off another winning weekend. This game features a critical match-up edge and follows the smart money. We had great results in September and October and we are ready to keep rolling into the new month. Our last Early pick on this site was a 26-0 winner with Maryland two weeks ago.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Great Lakes Sports
Kentucky at Mississippi State
Play:Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a very solid 10-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years, and they are 3-1 ATS vs conference opponents this year. The Kentucky Wildcats are a terrible 1-3 ATS vs conference opponents this year, and a dismal 1-4 ATS when playing on six or less days of rest this year. We look for the Mississippi State Bulldogs to grab the home ATS Win & cover tonight.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Temple at Navy
Temple is off a 14-10 home win vs. Ohio U where they barely cashed as 3.5 point favorites. A look inside the game shows that Temple was out-gained on the playing field by 124 yards. This week they are in over their heads vs. a Navy team they have lost to three straight years being outscored in the process 110-42. The Midshipmen have out-gained their opponents by 725 yards on the year while the Owls have been outgained by their opponents 769 yards. The Middies are 11-4 ATS their last 15 games and they are 45-20-1 ATS vs. losing teams.This games shapes up as men against boys!
Play on Navy
Arizona St at Oregon St
Oregon St is 23-9-1 ATS vs. losing teams and they are 6-0 ATS off a bye week. The Beavers are 6-0 ATS off a straight up win and they are 38-18-1 ATS their last 57 home games. Arizona St is 2-9 ATS their last 11 games and they are 7-20 ATS their last 27 November games. The Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS after allowing over 200 yards rushing in their last game and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. PLAY ON OREGON ST
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Iowa @ Illinois
Any home favorite of 5.0 or less that is off an away favorite SU loss in which they scored 24 points or less, has a winning percentage of better than .300, is facing an opponent off a home favorite ATS win, and that opponent has a winning percentage of .700 or less is 0-7 SU and ATS since 1981. The underdog has won all 7 of those games by an average of 12.2 points per game. Play on Iowa plus the points as my college football free selection of the week.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Central Michigan vs. Indiana
Selection: Indiana -1.5
Indiana’s upset win over Northwestern last week was a huge confidence boost for the Hoosiers and brought back their momentum.
Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis has been out of the past couple games with a high ankle sprain, but he’s expected to be cleared to play this game which puts Indiana in an even better place.
This game is extremely important for Indiana because the Hoosiers bowl hopes will rely on this victory. Central Michigan is a MAC school that has been defeated in all 11 of their last non-conference games on the road during the regular season, so the Hoosiers shouldn’t have any problem getting their win this week.
The Central Michigan defense isn’t fast enough to stop Indiana’s offense. The Hoosiers are also larger in size both offensively and defensively compared to the Chippewas. Against MAC schools, The Hoosiers are 9-3-2 ATS.
There are several factors that give Indiana the edge in this matchup; the Hoosiers are bigger and faster and are highly motivated in this important game, which means it would be stupid not to take advantage of this small line.
Take Indiana -1.5!
Re: Saturday Service Plays
(1) Texas (8-0, 7-1 ATS) at (6) Texas Tech (8-0, 3-3 ATS)
The marquee game on the schedule takes place in Lubbock, Texas, tonight, where the top-ranked Longhorns face their fourth consecutive Top 11 conference opponent when they battle Texas Tech in a showdown for Big 12 South supremacy.
Texas has survived a murderous schedule over the past month, first defeating then-No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35 as a seven-point underdog in Dallas, then pummeling No. 11 Missouri 56-31 as a four-point home favorite before holding on to win last week’s 28-24 thriller against No. 6 Oklahoma State, falling short as an 11½-point favorite in that one. In last Saturday’s win over the Cowboys, the Longhorns rolled up 504 total yards, but gave up 416 and got outrushed 217-113.
Texas Tech prepped for this showdown by going to Lawrence, Kan., last week and throttling Kansas 63-21 as a one-point road underdog. Star QB Graham Harrell (34-for-42, 386 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) was near perfect as the Red Raiders outgained the Jayhawks 556-315 and forced five turnovers.
These teams are tied atop the Big 12 South standings at 4-0, with Texas cashing in all four games while the Red Raiders are 2-2 ATS in league play.
The Longhorns hammered Texas Tech 59-43 last year, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Texas has won the last five meetings and eight of the last nine, going 6-3 ATS during this stretch (3-1 ATS in the last four). However, the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the past six battles, and the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
Two of the nation’s top offenses go at it in this one. Texas Tech ranks third in the nation in scoring (48 ppg), second in total offense (556.9 ypg), first in passing offense (418.4 ypg) and third in passing touchdowns (29). Texas is fifth in scoring (45.6 ppg) and ninth in total offense (486.5 ypg), but the Longhorns have a more balanced attack that gets it done both through the air (303 passing ypg) and on the ground (183.4 rushing ypg).
The quarterbacks are the key to both of these offenses. Texas’ Colt McCoy is completing an astounding 82 percent of his passes – tops in the nation – for 2,285 yards with 21 TDs and four INTs, and he’s also rushed for 412 yards and seven touchdowns. Tech’s Harrell, who ports a completion rate of 71 percent, leads the nation with 3,147 passing yards and his 28 TDs rank third nationally, and he’s thrown just five picks. Harrell also has five rushing scores.
Defensively, Texas rates a slight edge, giving up 18.4 points and 334.8 yards per game, including 69.2 rushing ypg, which is the third-lowest total in the nation. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders yield 21 points and 346.5 total yards per contest (101 rushing ypg).
Not only have the Longhorns cashed in seven of their eight games this year, but they’re on spread-covering streaks of 10-2 overall, 4-0 on the road (3-0 this year) and 19-9-2 in November. Texas Tech has won 24 of its last 30 home games in November and is on ATS runs of 13-6 as a home underdog and 6-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
Not surprisingly, the scoreboard lights up when these schools get together, as the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Lubbock. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five overall, 5-1 in its last six on the road, 6-1 in its last seven conference games and 4-1 in its last five in November. However, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in six straight home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
(5) Florida (6-1 SU and ATS) vs. (8) Georgia (7-1, 3-4 ATS)
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
First place in the SEC East is on the line today in Jacksonville, where Florida and Georgia battle it out in the annual World’s Largest Cocktail Party, with the loser knocked out of the national championship race.
The Gators pummeled Kentucky 63-5 a week ago, easily covering as a 25-point home favorite to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS since their stunning home loss to Ole Miss back on Sept. 27. During the three-game streak, Florida has outscored the opposition 152-33 while averaging 478.3 total yards per game and allowing just 316.7 ypg.
Like the Gators, Georgia has rebounded from its only defeat – a 41-30 home loss to Alabama – with three straight wins, the most impressive being last week’s 52-38 drubbing of LSU in Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs cashed in the pick-em contest to snap a three-game ATS slide, and even though they got outgained 497-443 against the Tigers, they snared three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Also, RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for a career-high 188 yards and three TDs.
These teams are tied atop the SEC East standings at 4-1, one game ahead of Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs thumped Florida 42-30 as a seven-point underdog in last year’s meeting, finishing with a 413-343 yard edge in total offense (196-107 in rushing). Prior to last year’s contest, the Gators had won two in a row and eight of the previous nine clashes, though the Dawgs are 3-1 ATS in the last four. Finally, the underdog has been the play in five of the last seven series battles.
Both explosive offenses are guided by solid junior quarterbacks. Florida’s Tim Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,415 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs to along with 227 rushing yards and five additional scores. Meanwhile, Bulldogs QB Matthew Stafford is connecting on 61.6 percent of his throws for 1,946 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs.
Overall, the Gators are putting up 42 points and 410.3 total yards per game (196 rushing ypg) and giving up 12 points and 273.4 total yards (102.7 rushing ypg). Georgia puts up 34.2 points and 431.2 total yards per outing (172.5 rushing ypg) while yielding 20.2 points and 298.1 yards per contest (77 rushing ypg).
Florida enters this showdown on ATS streaks of 9-1 in regular-season action, 6-1 in SEC play, 4-0 in November and 10-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Georgia sports pointspread streaks of 7-3-1- overall, 4-1-1 in November, 4-0 in neutral-site contests, 7-2 as an underdog since 2005 and 7-2 against a winning team.
For the Gators, the over is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-2 in SEC action, 14-5 on grass and 4-0 at neutral sites. The over is also 6-2 in Georgia’s last eight at neutral venues. On the flip side, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these bitter rivals, though last year’s contest easily topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at Virginia (5-3, 4-3 ATS)
Two teams on the rise in the ACC standings square off at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va., when the Hurricanes come calling on the Cavaliers.
Miami got a 16-10 home win over Wake Forest a week ago as a three-point favorite, the team’s third straight victory and second consecutive spread-cover. The ‘Canes blanked Wake Forest in the second half and rallied from a 10-3 halftime deficit to get the win, holding the Demon Deacons to just 252 total yards (57 passing). For the season, Miami is allowing 279.6 yards per game (110.5 rushing ypg).
Since an embarrassing 31-3 loss at Duke on Sept. 27, Virginia has rattled off four straight victories (4-0 ATS), capped by last week’s surprising 24-17 win at Georgia Tech as a two-touchdown road ‘dog. The Cavaliers now sit in first place in the ACC’s Coastal Division, led by an offense that is averaging 26.5 points and 382 yards per contest during its winning streak after scoring a total of 36 points in its first four games. Virginia’s defense leads the conference with 23 sacks, 10 of them coming from linebacker Clint Sintim, who lead the ACC in that category.
Virginia crushed Miami in South Beach a year ago, winning 48-0 as a four-point underdog to deal the Hurricanes their worst shutout loss in Orange Bowl history on the final game in the old stadium. It was the second straight year the Cavs beat the ‘Canes and their third straight spread-cover in the rivalry. The last time the two met in Charlottesville was 2006 when Virginia got a 17-7 win as a three-point pup.
The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last four roadies, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 6-15-1 in ACC contests, 7-33 following a spread-cover and 3-7 in November contests. Virginia is 28-12 in its last 40 games in Charlottesville (4-1 last five), and all four of its victories and covers during its current winning steak have come against teams with a winning record.
The over is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven ACC games, 6-2 in its last eight on the road and 8-3 in its last 11 against winning teams, but the under is 20-7 in its last 27 November contests and 10-4 in its last 14 after a spread-cover. For the Cavaliers, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 9-3 in November games and a whopping 20-7-3 in its last 30 ACC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA
West Virginia (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at Connecticut (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
The Mountaineers are looking for their fifth straight victory today when they make the trek to East Hartford, Conn. to take on Connecticut in a Big East battle.
West Virginia has had eight days off since beating Auburn 34-17 as a three-point home favorite. QB Patrick White threw for three TDs against the Tigers, but it was RB Noel Devine who did most of the damage, rushing for 207 yards on 17 carries and scoring on a 30-yard run late in the game to seal the win. West Virginia had a whopping 445-260 advantage in total yards and outrushed Auburn 271-149.
Connecticut rebounded from two road losses with a 40-16 home win over Cincinnati last Saturday, cashing as a three-point home ‘dog. QB Cody Endres threw for 196 yards, but RB Donald Brown II ignited the offense with 150 yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Both Endres and Zach Frazer took snaps with the first-team offense this week, and the starting QB for today’s matchup with the Mountaineers is uncertain.
West Virginia has destroyed UConn each of the last four years (4-0 ATS), including last year’s 66-21 home rout as a 21-point chalk. The closest the Huskies have come to beating the Mountaineers was back in 2004, when West Virginia 31-19 as a seven-point road chalk. The average margin of victory in the four meetings is 28.8 points per game.
The Mountaineers are on ATS slides of 1-5 in Big East games, 1-10 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after straight-up wins. On the flip side, Connecticut is on ATS runs of 16-5 at home, 7-1 as a home underdog, 8-2 in Big East action and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning home record.
It’s been all unders for West Virginia lately, including 4-1 in Big East contests, 20-7 against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in UConn’s last five at home. Finally, the total has alternated in the four all-time meetings between these schools, with last year’s contest easily soaring over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Northwestern (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) Minnesota (7-1, 6-1 ATS)
The Golden Gophers will try to keep their magical season going when Northwestern pays a visit to the Metrodome for a key Big Ten matchup.
Minnesota, who went 1-11 last season, have won seven of eight games in 2008 while getting the cash in each of its last six lined games. It’s the defense that has kept the Gophers close to the top of the conference, forcing 24 turnovers and giving up just 17.1 points per game. Last week, Minnesota downed Purdue 17-6 as a one-point road favorite, allowing just 109 passing yards, which was the Boilermakers’ lowest output in a game in 12 years.
Since reaching the cusp of the Top 25 a month ago, Northwestern has gone on to lose two of its last three, including last Saturday’s 21-19 setback at Indiana as a 7½-point road chalk. The Wildcats lost much more than the game, as senior RB Tyrell Sutton is now out the rest of the regular season with a wrist injury. Sutton had 3,772 rushing yards and 31 TDs in his career, while his replacement, Omar Conteh, has run for just 223 yards on 61 carries.
Minnesota has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry, both SU and ATS, but dropped a 49-48 overtime decision at Northwestern last season, cashing as a 6½-point pup. The Gophers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including a 43-17 win as 13½-point favorites the last time Northwestern came into the Metrodome in 2004. Finally, the ‘dog has cashed in eight of the last nine series battles.
The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a straight-up loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover. But Northwestern is on slides of 1-4 ATS on the highway and 5-13 ATS in road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, in addition to its current 6-0 ATS run, Minnesota is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-0 in Big Ten play, 5-1 in November and 4-0 against winning teams.
For Northwestern, the under is on runs of 7-2 in November, 11-5 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Minnesota has stayed low in four of its last five games, but otherwise the over is on streaks of 20-6 in November and 27-10-1 at home. Finally, the over has been the play in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
(19) Tulsa (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at Arkansas (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Tulsa steps out of Conference USA play when it travels to Arkansas needing a win to keep its BCS Bowl hopes alive.
The Golden Hurricane stumbled out of the gate in Sunday night’s home game against Central Florida, falling behind 19-14 at the half. But they got their top-ranked offense cranked up in the final 30 minutes, outscoring Central Florida 35-0 en route to a 49-19 win as a 23½-point chalk. Tulsa produced “just” 435 total yards, including 264 passing, but the defense stepped up in allowing just 187 total yards and forcing three turnovers.
With less than two minutes to play, Arkansas scored 10 points in 38 seconds last week against Ole Miss, but still came up short in a 23-21 home loss, covering as a 6½-point underdog. The Razorbacks have lost five of their last six games, but the last three were decided by a total of six points, and the Hogs cashed in each contest, all as an underdog.
These teams last met in 2003, when Arkansas rolled to a 45-13 victory, though Tulsa got the cash as a 36-point road underdog. The Razorbacks have won 16 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, with the last 10 going dating to 1985 being played on Arkansas’ home turf.
Tulsa leads the nation in both scoring offense (56.6 ppg) and total offense (624.7 total ypg), and despite an average game last week against Central Florida, QB David Johnson still is completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 332.6 yards per game with an NCAA-best 32 TDs against nine INTs. Meanwhile, despite scoring 25, 20 and 21 points the last three weeks, the Hogs are putting up just 19.1 points and 361.6 total yards per outing while allowing 32 points and 359.2 yards per game.
The Hurricane have cashed in seven of their last eight games dating to last season and are on additional pointspread streaks of 13-5 after a spread-cover and 10-4 in non-conference play. The Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 November contests, but they’re stuck in pointspread slumps of 1-3 at home this year, 1-5 as a home pup since 2005 and 2-8 outside of SEC play.
For Tulsa, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play and 5-2 in November, but the under is 6-0 in the team’s last six games on grass. For Arkansas, the over streaks include 8-3 at home, 5-1 in non-conference action, 11-5 on grass and 4-1 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA and OVER
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-4-1 ATS) at Notre Dame (5-2 SU and ATS)
Notre Dame will try to secure its first winning season in three years when it hosts Pitt as this regional rivalry resumes for the first time since 2005.
The Irish bounced back from a heartbreaking 29-24 loss at North Carolina with last week’s 33-7 drubbing of Washington, easily getting the cash as a 10-point road favorite for their fourth consecutive spread-cover. Notre Dame had a ridiculous 459-124 edge in total offense last week, including a 252-26 advantage on the ground. Going back to last year, Charlie Weis’ team is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run, including five straight wins in South Bend (4-1 ATS).
The Panthers saw their five-game winning streak come to a halt in last week’s embarrassing 54-34 home loss to lowly Rutgers as a 9½-point home chalk, falling to 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven. Pitt actually had the edge in total offense (486-442) and held the ball for five more minutes than Rutgers, but the offense committed two turnovers and the defense allowed six touchdown passes.
These schools have squared off against each other 10 times since 1992, including five straight years from 2001-05. During this 10-meeting stretch, the Irish are 8-2 SU and ATS (4-1 SU and ATS) at home). The SU winner cashed in all 10 games.
Pitt is on ATS steaks of 6-2 on the highway and 5-1 as a road pup, both since last year. On the flip side, the Panthers are in pointspread nosedives of 1-7 in November, 1-4-1 in non-conference play and 4-8-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, despite its current positive ATS runs, Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus the Big East.
The under is 9-4 in Pitt’s last 13 overall and 13-6 in Notre Dame’s last 19 overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the Irish’s last seven in South Bend and 5-1 in their last six against the Big East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Nebraska (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
Oklahoma and Nebraska renew their storied rivalry for the first time since 2006 when the teams meet in Norman, Okla,, where the Sooners hope to keep their BCS title game hopes alive.
Oklahoma’s offense put on a show in the first half of last week’s game at Kansas State, scoring a school-record eight touchdowns and taking a 55-28 halftime lead en route to an easy 58-35 victory. The Sooners actually got outgained 550-528, but finished with a whopping 273-64 advantage in rushing. Bob Stoops’ offense has tallied a combined 103 points the last two weeks and is averaging 48.2 points and 542.1 total yards per game this season, scoring at least 35 in every game.
Nebraska evened its Big 12 record at 2-2 with last week’s 32-20 home victory over Baylor, but the Huskers failed to cover as a 13-point home favorite despite finishing with 147-yard edge in total offense (497-350). They have outgained their last three foes (Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor) by a total of 527 yards.
These rivals haven’t faced off since a three-year stretch from 2004-06, with Oklahoma winning all three contests and covering the spread in the past two. The most recent battle came in the 2006 Big 12 Championship game, and the Sooners rolled to a 21-7 victory as a 3½-point favorite. The chalk is on a 6-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Despite covering the number in two of its last three games, Nebraska is still just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall. In addition, the Cornhuskers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 on the highway (but 2-0 ATS this year), 4-9 ATS in their last 13 league games and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Sooners have won 22 consecutive home games, going 13-7-1 ATS, including 12-4-1 in their last 17 in Norman (all as a favorite). OU is also on ATS tears of 5-2 in November and 15-7 following a spread-cover.
Oklahoma has topped the total in four straight games overall, six of its seven lined contests this season and four of its last five in Norman. Conversely, the Huskers are on under streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big 12 action and 6-1 when playing on grass. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five Nebraska-Oklahoma battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
(23) Oregon (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at California (5-2 SU and ATS)
Having climbed back into the Top 25 after consecutive victories, Oregon will now try to move up the rankings when it visits California in a key Pac-10 clash.
The Ducks followed up a sluggish 31-24 home win over UCLA by destroying Arizona State 54-20 as a three-point road favorite last week. Oregon, which has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents dating to last year, piled up 537 total yards (304 rushing) and allowed just 333 (107 rushing) and won easily despite committing three turnovers. Even though they got the cash last week, the Ducks are just 2-4 ATS in their last six outings (2-2 ATS on the road).
Cal bounced back from a 42-27 loss at Arizona with last week’s 41-20 home rout of UCLA, barely holding on to cover as an 18-point favorite. The Bears, who like Oregon have outgained nine of their last 10 foes, ran all over UCLA for 232 yards while holding the Bruins to 16 net rushing yards. The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Cal’s last 11 games.
The Bears went to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., last year and surprised the Ducks 31-24 as a 6½-point road underdog, ending a four-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry. Cal has won and covered the last two meetings after Oregon had gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the previous eight clashes.
Oregon is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on artificial turf and 14-7 in its last 21 when catching points, but only 1-4 ATS in its last five versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bears ended last season in a 1-7 ATS funk, but they’ve cashed in six of their eight games this year, including all four at home. However, they’re still 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference contests and 0-6 ATS in their last six November outings.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools. However, the over is 4-1-2 in Oregon’s last seven games overall, 5-1-1 in its last seven on turf, 6-2 in Cal’s last eight overall and 13-6 in Cal’s last 19 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wisconsin (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at (22) Michigan State (7-2, 5-3 ATS)
Wisconsin tries for consecutive victories for the first time since starting the season 3-0 when it travels to Michigan State for a Big Ten contest.
The Badgers snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid – all in Big Ten play – with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 27-17 victory over Illinois as a 2½-point home underdog. Wisconsin outrushed the Illini 163-88, and the defense picked off Illinois QB Juice Williams three times en route to the team’s first league victory of the season.
Michigan State bounced back from an embarrassing 45-7 home loss to Ohio State with last week’s 35-21 trouncing of Michigan, cashing as a 3½-point road chalk. The Spartans enjoyed a 473-252 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, but lost three fumbles. Michigan State is on a 7-1 roll (5-2 ATS), going 3-1 (2-2 ATS) in Big Ten play.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Wisconsin’s last seven games and 7-2 ATS in Michigan State’s nine contests this year.
The host has taken the last three meetings in this rivalry dating to 2003. Last year, Wisconsin prevailed 37-34, but the Spartans got the cash as a seven-point road underdog.
The Badgers are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 1-8 on the highway and 1-5 in league games. As for the Spartans, they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Big Ten, but they’re mired in pointspread funks of 5-12 in November and 7-17 at home.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Wisconsin in Big Ten play, 4-1 for Wisconsin in November, 4-1 for Michigan State overall, 8-1 for Michigan State in conference and 15-7-2 for Michigan State in November action. Finally, each of the last five series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) Florida State (6-1, 3-2 ATS) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 5-1 ATS)
Florida State hopes to maintain at least a share of first place in the ACC Atlantic Division when it hits the road for a league game at Georgia Tech.
The Seminoles opened conference play with a disappointing 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest on Sept. 20, but they’ve bounced back to win four in a row (3-1 ATS). Last week, Florida State rallied to beat Virginia Tech 30-20, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Bobby Bowden’s club is 3-1 in ACC play (2-2 ATS), tied with Maryland for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Georgia Tech’s four-game SU and five-game ATS winning streaks came to a stunning halt a week ago in a 24-17 loss to Virginia, even though the Yellow Jackets were a 14-point home favorite. They gave up 396 total yards (270 passing) and mustered just 259 on offense (103 passing) in falling into second place in the ACC’s Coastal Division at 3-2 (4-1 ATS).
These teams last met in 2003, with Florida State eking out a 14-13 victory but never threatening to cash as a 24-point home chalk. The Seminoles have won 12 in a row in this rivalry, but after cashing in five straight from 1994-98, FSU is just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five battles with Georgia Tech – with those five contests decided by an average of six points per game.
Despite its recent pointspread successes, the ‘Noles are still just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 November games and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 following a non-cover, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
The under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these teams, 5-1 in Tech’s last six overall, 35-17-2 in Tech’s last 54 ACC contests and 17-6 in Florida State’s last 23 November outings. However, the Seminoles have topped the total in five of their last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Washington State at Stanford
The only thing dropping faster than a Washington State booster these days is their 401K's, and even that's a close race! The good news for Washington State fans is that they didn't lose last week. Well, OK, they didn't play either. “I’d take two,” coach Paul Wulff said about his team's much needed bye week. The Cougars (1-7 SU, 0-7 ATS) had a week off to ponder the beating they took at the hands of USC two weeks ago, 69-0. The offensive output looks more like what the basketball team numbers might be. QB Kevin Lopina had 30 points....err, yards passing, while Logwone Mitz rushed for a team high 49 yards! While Rome is burning, Wulff might as well burn the redshirt year of his Frosh QB, J.T. Levenseller. The door is open this week for Levenseller to play and lose his redshirt season, even though Wulff seemed steadfast on not doing so just a few weeks earlier. If Wulff has any consolation, it could be in the fact that his team is NOT the worst college football team in the state of Washington. That will be determined when the Cougars meet the Huskies on Nov. 22. Stanford (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) must be licking its chops this week with the prospect of facing the nation's 116th ranked offense and 110th ranked defense. The Cardinal also had last week off after a very tough loss in Pasadena the week before to UCLA, 23-20. QB Tavita Pritchard will likely share snaps with Alex Loukas again this week despite the fact that the duo combined for just 51 yards throwing against UCLA. "I think we got a lot of production out our quarterbacks, in terms of running as well as some throwing," HC Jim Harbaugh said. "You just look at the 51 (passing) yards and say, 'Well, the quarterbacks didn't have a whole lot of production.' But, in fact, they had key third-down pickups. So, no, I don't think we kept ourselves off balance." Stanford will have to improve on its penalties as only USC and Washington State have more penalty yards in the Pac-10. Stanford ranks just 84th both in offense and defense nationally, but those number should improve after this week's game. Stanford is 12-4 ATS the last 16 games in this series, though WSU has covered the last two seasons, including last year's blowout win in Pullman, 33-17. The only motivation here for Stanford, which plays at Oregon next week, is that they lost to WSU last year so badly. Stanford can pretty much name the score on this one.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
For Saturday’s freebie in College Football, we’ll lay the big points with Oregon State against freefalling Arizona State in Pac-10 action.
You want to talk about a dead team walking, that’s the Sun Devils. Forget about the fact they’ve lost five straight games – they haven’t been competitive in any of the last four. After losing to lowly UNLV 23-20 in overtime as a 25-point home favorite, Arizona State proceeded to drop games to Georgia (27-10 at home), Cal (24-14 on the road), USC (28-0 on the road) and, last week, an embarrassing 54-20 home loss to Oregon.
During this 0-5 stretch, Arizona State is 1-4 ATS, with the only cover coming as a 28½-point underdog in that 28-0 loss at USC – and the Trojans gave ASU the money in that one by turning the ball over five times and failing to capitalize on four Sun Devils turnovers.
Meanwhile, as ASU’s season has headed south, Oregon State has gained steam. Since a 45-14 loss at Penn State (a loss that doesn’t look so bad anymore), the Beavers have won four of their last five, going 5-0 ATS. That includes that 27-21 upset win over then-No. 1 USC; a heartbreaking 31-28, last-second loss at Top 15 Utah; and back-to-back drubbings the last two weeks over Washington State and Washington – Oregon State beat those two dead teams by the combined score of 100-26!
If you just focus on the stats from the last three games alone for these teams, here’s what you see: The Beavers are averaging 42.7 points and 458.3 total yards per game (215 rushing yards per game) and giving up 19 points and 282 yards per game (96.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, ASU is producing just 11.3 points and 266 yards per game on offense in its last three (84.3 rushing ypg) while surrendering a whopping 35.3 points and 400.3 yards per game (197.7 rushing ypg).
Throw in the fact that the home team is on a 7-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry – with the winner covering the spread in all eight of those games, including OSU’s 44-10 trouncing of the Sun Devils in the most recent meeting in Corvalis two years ago – and this one’s a no-brainer!
5♦ OREGON STATE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
For Saturday take the ridiculous number with Washington.
No doubt the Washington Huskies are a total disaster as Tyrone Willingham is a total joke but this number is still way too out of control!
USC did just cover a similar number in Pullman against Washington State but these Huskies are a ton better than those horrificly pathetic Cougars, even in this winless season. Willingham is done at the end of the season and there is little to play for here as Washington is once again without their Quarterback in Jake Locker but 46 or so points in a conference game!??!?! Come on!??!!? Pride alone will keep this thing closer than that.
Pete Carroll's Trojans will not lose outright ala Stanford in a similar spot a season ago but this is a total letdown spot and to be honest with you I just do not trust the USC offense all that much. Arizona's defense stood toe-to toe with Mark Sanchez and the Trojans offense and with a lack of motivation today I do not see this unit just clicking on all cylinders. Plus Joe McKnight more than likely being limited with that toe injury and Averill Spicer probably being out I just do not see a 50-0 or so beatdown here.
Yes I also do not see the Huskies being able to really move the ball at all as Ray Malaluga and this USC defense is as good as they come but a spread of around 46 is just silly as Washington still has enough pride and quality athletes to easily cover this number. This team was able to lose against a top 25 BYU team by one point after that whole Locker unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Yes that was at home and with Locker. But once again I say 46 points in a conference game? Come on!
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Selection: Georgia Tech -3
Reason: Put us down on Georgia Tech -3 for our Free MLB Selection on Saturday. The Florida Seminoles are a highly overrated team despite common opinion. It’s obvious when you look at their 2 games against ranked Wake Forest and Virginia. Florida was defeated by the Demon Deacons 12-3 and then last week at home 30-20 by the Hokies. That loss was even more pathetic considering that Virginia Tech was without their first 2 quarterbacks. The Seminoles are facing a team that is ranked 9th in the nation in rushing and Georgia Tech leads the ACC in this category. The Yellow Jackets have one of the best coaches in Paul Johnson and won‘t have an ounce of difficulty controlling the line of scrimmage. Florida State is a very aggressive team that is going to be completely baffled by some fresh schemes that Johnson has prepared for this competition. Lay the points with the much better team! Take Georgia Tech -3!
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Clemson at Boston College
Clemson comes into this one having lost three in a row and looking pretty bad in the process while Boston College has won four of its last five with the only loss coming last week in North Carolina. We think Clemson has just too many problems to work out, so let's play BC in this one.
The Eagles have won the last three years when they've seen the Tigers and gotten the cash in all three. Last year they went to Clemson and scored a 20-17 win as a nine-point 'dog.
Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall and lost at home to Georgia Tech on Oct. 18, falling 21-17 to the Yellow Jackets. Prior to that they suffered ugly losses at Wake Forest and at home against Maryland. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five ACC games, 1-7 ATS after a straight-up loss and 2-5 ATS in their last seven November games.
Boston College is 23-11 ATS in their 34 games after a straight-up loss and the way the Eagles have played lately at home, they could hold the Tigers to single digits today. Clemson isn't putting up any fight anymore. Play Boston College to get the job done.
3♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Jose State -16' at IDAHO
We say big deal Idaho was able to beat New Mexico State last week 20-14 as the double digit dog, ain't no way in the world the Vandals are going to stay inside of this roomy home impost today against San Jose State.
Idaho is still a money-burning 2-6 against the spread their last 8 in the underdog role, and they catch the Spartans off a tough loss at home to Boise State last Friday night.
The Spartans were riding a 3-game win, and cover streak prior to their loss to the undefeated Broncos, as we feel today's game will seem like a walk in the park against the permissive Idaho defense which has allowed 42-points or more in 7 of their 9 games this year.
San Jose is on a 3-game series win, and cover streak as they head to Kibbie Dome Stadium, and the Spartans have punched the ticket the last 9 times they have been installed as a favorite.
Look for this one to get out of hand early.
Play on the Spartans.
5♦ SAN JOSE STATE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
BYU at COLORADO STATE +14'
The G-Man has found a "live dog" this Saturday in Fort Collins where Colorado State is getting double-digits from a BYU team that is riding an 0-4 spread slide.
BYU's loss at TCU has put a serious crimp in the Cougars BCS dreams, and I just don't think they are going to get on top of this number against a Rams team that has covered ALL 3 of their home games this season, including a cover against TCU.
The home team has covered the last 6 games Colorado State has been involved in, and the Rams have been showing nice offensive balance under first year head coach Steve Fairchild.
The Rams have dropped 4 straight to the Cougars, but they did cover as the double-digit dog in last year's meeting.
G-Man likes the roomy impost in this one, as the Rams stay close to the Cougars who drop number five in a row against the spread.
Take the points!
2♦ COLORADO STATE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Louisville +13 vs Syracuse
A lot of handicappers and players alike DON'T CARE about what happened 2 years ago... 5 years ago... or 20 years ago. All they care about is what is going on THIS season. And for those, KING CREOLE has queried the Playbook College Football database.... and there's some great "Play AGAINST" situations based on what's happened so far.
So far this season, Conference FAVORITES playing off BB SU and ATS wins are 1-11 ATS when taking on any < .500 opponent. So if this ATS pattern continues it's high percentages, we will look to play AGAINST Utah... Rice... TCU... LA-Lafayette... Oregon State... and Louisville. Bring in an opponent off BB SU losses, and the System improves to 0-5 ATS (Play AGAINST TCU / Oregon St / Louisville).
So far this season, Conference home favs are 2-14 ATS when taking on an opponent off BB SU wins... with the last also being an TS win. The teams that we want to look to play AGAINST in this pattern are California... Oklahoma... and Illinois.