Saturday Service Plays

Saturday Service Plays

Bettorsworld

3* Texas Tech +6 over Texas - or 2* Texas Tech +4  Ok. So, if you have followed our plays for any length of time, you should have been able to see this one coming. This one has all the ingredients of what amounts to a solid play in our eyes. A play that we know, if made 100 times, will get us the money better than 53% of the time. It's important to understand that concept when wagering on sports. We feel we have a better than 53% chance of winning this one. We are long term investors. Not quick fix instant gratification players. We like to say that every year in college football, the stats and situations stay the same, only the color of the uniforms and helmets change. In other words, we have seen games very similar to this one, countless times over the last 27 years. Games that meet a certain criteria both statistically and emotionally that qualify them as plays for us. The long term track record is pretty damn good, which makes this one an automatic buy for us.

From an emotional standpoint, you can't ask for more. Texas Tech, at home, hosting the number one team in the Nation, which also happens to be a conference and in state rival that has had their number having beaten them 5 straight and 11 of the last 16. The game is a prime time affair, broadcast nationally, with the eyes of a nation on this game and this game only. ESPN's Game day program will be their live all day. Both teams are undefeated. The Big 12 title is up for grabs. The National Title is up for grabs. Tech also gets the underdog nod. A built in edge in games like these. Hey, no one expects us to win. We get no respect. Let's prove everyone wrong. We have nothing to lose. You get the picture. The pressure is on Texas.

On to the game. All of the above means nothing unless you have some talent to work with. Just to be clear, and to show we aren't wearing blinders, we fully realize Texas has played the tougher schedule to date. Both of these teams started out with 3 or 4 cupcakes and both dismantled them as they were supposed to. For Texas Tech,  their toughest test to date may have been last weeks destruction of Kansas. You might also have to raise your eyebrows at their inability to put away a mediocre Nebraska team. Texas on the other hand, has had a tough 3 game stretch in which they rose to the occasion beating Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. (Two of those games were at home and the other was at the Cotton Bowl). But that three game stretch may be more of a negative than a positive. It's not easy to get sky high mentally to play a football game, 4 weeks in a row. The potential for this to be a flat spot is there.

In watching Texas though, you don't get the feeling that your are watching a National Champion. Can they win a National Title? Sure they can. They can beat any team in the nation, on any given day. But they are also vulnerable. Championship teams don't give up the kind of yardage and big plays that Texas does. They could have easily lost last week as well as a couple of weeks back against Oklahoma. As a matter of fact, it was the Oklahoma game that made this handicapper realize there would be a good spot or two to go against them this year.

That's where this week and Texas Tech come in. Any time you have a team like Texas Tech, an offensive powerhouse year after year, that can score points with the best of them, the door is always open. The Texas secondary has been suspect all season. Teams are throwing the ball on the Long Horns. Texas Tech will be no exception. They'll move the ball and will score points. No one will argue that point. Will they outscore Texas? We shall see.

What adds to the Tech appeal here, is that they aren't just getting it done offensively. Sure, Texas Tech and offense go hand in hand. Every year they lead the nation in offensive categories. But defense is usually a 4 letter word. It's an afterthought. It's usually just a unit to put on the field for a few minutes while the high powered offense catches it's breath. But this years Red Raiders are a bit different. The defense hasn't been half bad. The defense is 3rd overall in the Big 12. The rushing defense and scoring defense are 2nd in the Big 12 and they actually have a bit of a running game going, a rarity for Tech teams.

Ultimately this is a game between two excellent offensive football teams, both of which can be vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams will score some points here. It will likely come down to a big play or two, on either side of the ball. A mistake here or there. Speaking of mistakes, note that Texas Tech is in the top 10 in the Nation in turnover margin at +9. Exactly where you want a team to be when you're hoping that the team you're backing isn't the one to make a crucial game deciding mistake. Remember, losing bettors like to say team x gets all the breaks. Winning bettors realize that teams create those breaks. You can't always predict the future with the past, but you can certainly try. +9 in Turnovers is a nice place to be.

Some programs dominate others and while Texas has had the upper hand in this series, you don't have to look far to see if Tech can compete. 35-31 Texas in 2006. 43-40 Texas in 2003. 42-38 Tech in 2002. That's just to illustrate that Texas Tech is capable of putting teams on the field that can not only go toe to toe with Texas, but can also beat them. Certainly this looks to be one of the best Tech teams in years. They started the year with just about every single starter from a year ago. Also note they have a big offensive line that has only given up three sacks all year.

Texas Tech has an offense as good as any in country. The Texas defense is less than stellar and plenty vulnerable. Tech has every imaginable motivational edge, the home field edge, the turnover edge, and the psychological edge that goes along with being an underdog at home in perhaps the biggest game in the history of Tech football. It's no lock. It's no guarantee. It's simply a nice spot for Texas Tech getting +6 in a game where an upset is certainly possible. 3* Texas Tech +6 or 2* Texas Tech +4


3* Uconn +4 over West Virginia - Last season these two teams were Big East Co-Champs. On paper at least. But the real Champions, were the West Virginia Mountaineers. They played last November 24th and West Virginia pounded Uconn to the tune of 66-21 while gaining over 500 yards in the process. But let's not forget that this was a special WVA team a year ago. They were one game away from the National title game. Sure, they hammered Uconn, but guess what? They also hammered #3 Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Uconn was a good, solid, scrappy football team last year. This year, with 9 back on offense and 8 on defense, pretty much the same team, Uconn is a good, solid, scrappy football team. They enjoy a huge home field edge, which we talked about last week, and they are one of the best coached teams in the Nation. If Randy Edsall doesn't end up with a big time coaching job, it will be a crime. The Huskies results are a direct reflection on Edsall. He makes the most of the talent he has. Comes up with sound game plans that puts his teams in a position to win games in the 4th quarter.

Uconn was criticized all of last year and continues to get criticized this year. They get the "breaks". They play a "soft schedule". That's all nonsense. Fact is, they continue to win football games. They are 6-2 this year and really, could be undefeated. They had a chance to win the Rutgers game but missed a last second field goal and the loss to North Carolina was deceiving. The score was 38-12 but the Tar Heels blocked 3 punts, one for a touchdown and the others setting up great field position. North Carolina scored 21 points off of Husky mistakes, which is a rarity. Take away that 21 points and you're looking at a 17-12 game. As it was, Uconn won the stat battle in that game. 23 first downs to NC's 13. Uconn had twice as many passing yards as well as more yards on the ground and they won the time of possession battle holding onto the ball for 36  minutes to North Carolina's 23. So Uconn is one bad game with some mistakes, and a missed field goal away from being undefeated. Likewise, take that 21 points NC scored off the mistakes away and you have a Uconn team that's competitive every time they take the field.

In case no one has noticed, West Virginia is down a notch. Let's forget about the Auburn game for a minute. After opening the year with a win over Villanova, WVA went on the road for two games in a row and lost them both. East Carolina beat them 24-3 and then Colorado knocked them off in overtime. Then they returned home, where they have been ever since. 4 straight games, all wins, all at home. But folks, look at who those wins came against. They beat Marshall. Then it was 24-17 over Rutgers. Then they beat Syracuse 17-6 after being up just 7-6 at the half. Syracuse!! Granted they played without Pat White in that Syracuse game, but last we checked, White didn't play defense. Syracuse had over 200 yards thru the air, they had 20 first downs to WVA's 13 and they controlled the ball for 35 minutes.

Against Auburn, WVA trailed 17-3 off of two Pat White interceptions. To their credit, they were able to battle back and stick it to a pretty good Auburn defense in the 2nd half, showing flashes of a year ago. But it's still just one half of football. If you line up these two teams results side by side this year, quarter by quarter, you'd have to give Uconn the nod for having played more solid quarters of football. This is a WVA team that was scoring 40, 50 and 60 points in games a year ago yet aside from the Villanova game hadn't topped 27 all year until the 2nd half of last weeks Auburn game.

Uconn plays the type of football that keeps games close. West Virginia lost the time of possession battle in every game but 2 this year. Uconn is 7th in the Nation in time of possession. Uconn has the Nations leading rusher in Donald Brown and the team is 17th overall in rushing offense. West Virginia gives up some yards through the air as well which would seem to play right into the hands of the Uconn dink and dunk passing attack. Uconn doesn't need the long ball. Donald Brown left, Donald Brown right, screens out of the backfield, hit the tight ends........that's Uconn football. The defense isn't to shabby either. Aside from Auburn, Uconn is as good or better than every team West Virginia has faced this year.

Uconn gets the home field advantage. Perhaps a little weather working in their favor with a chance of rain. They have the added motivation of revenge for last years humiliation. They also have the chance to beat WVA for the first time, which is something these juniors and seniors, and coach Edsall would love to do. Very similar to the Cincinnati win a week ago, a team Uconn had never beaten.

Speaking of the revenge angle, Edsall and his staff downplayed that angle early in the week. But as it turns out, and as if we didn't already know, it actually is a pretty big deal. Here is a paragraph from a Hartford Courant article with a quote or two :

West Virginia coach Bill Stewart was right. That 66-21 pasting administered by the Mountaineers last season sure is posted in the Huskies' building.

It's in the locker room and their training room at the Burton Complex. And, said UConn senior defensive end Cody Brown, there is a picture of West Virginia's offensive line pinned in every defensive lineman's locker.

Not that anybody needed a reminder — or motivation — for this one, but the coaches want as much emphasis as possible.

Gotta love it. That's what college football is all about.

This game should be close all the way. No reason for it not to be based on the results of both of these teams thus far. West Virginia is not pounding teams into submission as they were a year ago. They are winless on the road and when they have won, other than the 2nd half last week at Auburn, they are barely getting by bad teams. Uconn on the other hand is 3 blocked punts and a missed field goal away from 8-0. Doesn't matter who the QB is this week for the Huskies. They just need someone to drive the car. Uconn has won 11 straight at home, 29-7 straight up there since 2003 and 12-5 against the spread in the 17 games in which they have been a dog in that time frame. We'll take the +4 in a very winnable game for Uconn. 3* Uconn +4


* Duke +8 over Wake Forest - Never in a million years did we think we'd have a Key Release on Duke in the 2008-2009 football season. After many years of being one of the worst, if not the worst team in college football, the Duke Blue Devils are 4-3 and can smell a Bowl Game on the horizon. This team is hungry, and is playing some good football. Duke is #6 in the Nation in turnover margin at +9 and while Wake Forest is right behind them on that list, the Demon Deacons are struggling offensively. After scoring 30 points on opening day, Wake Forest has scored 12, 17, 12, 0 and 10 points. That's an average of 10 points per game and they are laying 8 in this game. Not much room for error.

Duke playing some decent football these days. Not great, but good. They had one game this year that was lopsided, otherwise they have been in them all. Their yards per point on offense is a nice 13 and defensively they have a decent 16. Anytime the defensive ypp number is higher than the offensive number, that's a good thing. Wake Forest has a nice ypp number of 18 defensively but it's the 17 on offense that attracts us to this play. They just aren't putting the ball in the end zone.

Something else we like to do when taking a look at teams that play each other every year is to take a look at recent results. Why? To see if the talent is there to compete in the first place. Common sense really. In this case, a team like Duke is loaded with returning starters from a year ago. 10 on defense and 7 on offense. It's pretty much the same team talent wise as a year ago. If we looked at past results and saw a string of 30 point losses every year, we'd back off. That would suggest the talent gap couldn't possibly have closed that much in a year. But guess what? Here's the scores of the last 4 years of games between these two.

2007 - Wake Forest 41-36

2006 - Wake Forest 14-13

2005 - Wake Forest 44-6

2004 - Wake Forest 24-22

All Wake Forest wins, but 3 of the 4 games were decided by 5, 2 and 1 point.  2005 wasn't close. But 3 of the 4 years suggests the talent gap is close. Particularly when you look at the more recent results of the last two years. Wake Forest has been one of our favorite teams to get involved with over the last few years. We saw their success coming and jumped on their wagon early and as a result cashed quite a few nice winners along the way. But there's a good chance, just as in the stock market, that the Wake Forest stock has peaked. This price of -8 suggests perhaps that Wake Forest living off their past reputation in the eyes of the betting public and the oddsmakers, not what they have done lately. As it is, they have lost 4 of 6 against the spread this year.

Again, laying 8 when you've averaged 10 points per game in your last 5 games is a tall order. But what puts this one over the top for us is the magic number of 6. That's the number of wins required to earn a Bowl bid and with Duke sitting at 4 wins, and with the schedule the rest of the way not exactly easy, this opportunity to grab a win becomes HUGE. If Duke came close 3 out of 4 years against Wake Forest teams that were much better than this years bunch, then they can certainly come close while having one of their best years in a long time. The straight up win and the chance for a bowl is what they're looking at. Getting +7.5 or + 8 is a nice spot here. This play good all the way down to +7. 3* Duke + 8

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Big Al McMordie

Georgia Bulldogs

At 3:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs plus the points over Florida. Both teams come into this game off three straight wins, and each had impressive wins last week. Georgia won 52-38 at LSU, while Florida absolutely destroyed Kentucky by 58 points. But now, I am going to fade Urban Meyer's Gators off its 63-5 blowout win at Kentucky last week. One of the things that I like to do in College Football is go against teams away from home off back to back wins, if it scored 40 points or more in its last game, held its opponent to 10 or less, and is now favored against a conference foe off a momentum-building win and cover. These teams are a poor 27-46 ATS since 1980, including 15-33 ATS vs. winning teams. Take Georgia.

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Matt Fargo

Tulsa @ Arkansas
PICK: Arkansas +7

Tulsa is coming off a fairly inconsistent game against Central Florida as it did not show up in the first half but then came out and blew away the Knights in the second half. This can be considered a statement game for the Golden Hurricane since beating an SEC school will solidify its place in the BCS standings, which they currently sit in 18th place. As efficient as this team has looked, this is a huge step up in class as a below average SEC school is better than the best of the bunch in C-USA.

Arkansas is no doubt in a rebuilding season but the Razorbacks have been playing some much better football of late. After narrow wins over Western Illinois and UL-Monroe, Arkansas was hammered three straight weeks by Alabama, Texas and Florida. That is once heck of a trio as those three teams are a combined 22-1 so it really is nothing to be ashamed of. The Razorbacks then beat Auburn outright and its last two losses have been by a combined three points so this team is going in the right directions.

C-USA and the SEC cannot compare. The latter is ranked 4th in the country while the former is just 11th out of the 12 FBS conferences. That is a huge difference and it shows in schedule strength. The Razorbacks have played a schedule ranked 9th overall while Tulsa has played the 131st ranked schedule showing that some FCS teams have played a tougher slate. The Golden Hurricane have played only one team with a winning record and that was Rice at 5-3. The combined record of the seven FBS teams is 17-39.

The Tulsa offense continues to pile up yards. It is averaging 601 ypg and 55.6 ppg which are both tops in the country. The problem is that the defense is well below average as the Golden Hurricane yield 384.6 ypg which is 87th in the nation. They are coming off their best performance of the season but that was no surprise as Central Florida came into that game as the lowest ranked offense in the country. The defensive numbers are even worse on the road as they allow 444.3 ypg including 199.7 ypg on 6.1 ypc on the ground.

While Arkansas has been struggling overall, it is showing improvement, most importantly in the running game. The Razorbacks are averaging 167.3 ypg over their last four games after putting up just 90.5 ypg rushing in their first four games. Overall, Arkansas is outgaining its opponents showing that the defense has been playing pretty well also. It isn’t going to stop this offense but it should be able to slow it down enough to keep this one tight and shoot for the possible upset. 3* Arkansas Razorbacks

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Alex Smart

Miami (Florida) +2.5

The Miami Hurricanes and the Virgina Cavaliers go head to head in a key ACC matchup between two teams that are currently in top form. The Canes after a 0-2 start in conference play, have come back with impressive successive wins against Wake Forest and Duke. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have won 4 straight games , including wins against two top 25 teams.

Last year when these football programs met the Cavaliers mercilessly beat the Canes in their own back yard, down in the Orange Bowl by a 48-0 count. While revenge in College football can sometimes be over stated and over hyped, this is not one of those situations. The above mentioned loss marked the first time since 1974 that Miami Fl, was shut at home. Worse of all, the loss came in front of some of the schools all time top players. Needless to say, some key boosters were not impressed with how coach Randy Shannon seemed unprepared for that game. Since than the HC has had this date circled on his calender and will have his team more than ready to compete.

The Wahoos HC Al Groh knows there is a storm blowing in, and will batten down the hatches . Look for a hard fought affair, with the Canes strength, their defense, ending up being the difference maker .

Final notes & Key Trends: The underdog has won the L/4 meetings. The Canes have covered four straight road games.

Projected score: Miami Fl 23 Virginia 20

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Robert Ferringo

Take UNLV (+14) over TCU

Any time that nearly 90 percent of the early betting action is on one team and the spread rarely moves you have to take a long, hard look at this matchup. The Horned Frogs are coming off of arguably their two most dominating performances of the season, shutting down BYU at home and then winning 54-7 against pathetic Wyoming. They now head on the road to face a UNLV team that has been a bit spry this year, beating BCS teams Arizona State and Iowa State while losing by just seven to BYU and by one to Air Force. The key here is that TCU heads to Utah next Thursday to play a game that could result in a BCS berth for the winner. There is no way they aren’t looking forward to that prime time matchup and I think they might overlook this UNLV squad. The Runnin’ Rebels always seem to come to play when you least expect them to. They are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record, while TCU is just 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record.

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Nelly

Kent + over Bowling Green

Kent State started the season 1-6 but after a bye week and getting some key players healthy the Flashes had a great performance last week. Kent features a mobile QB and an elite RB so the edge on the ground should be significant. Despite being a bowl team last year Bowling Green has lost three of the last four games outright, falling to 1-3 in MAC play. Bowling Green is allowing 181 yards per game on the ground and the Falcon offense has not been as productive as last year’s team. Look for a possible upset here.

Nelly’s has shown solid profits in October and we are ready to wrap up the month with October’s final college football game. This Big East match-up has become a critical game for both teams and we are convinced that one side will come out with a great performance Thursday night. Sign up to win with Nelly’s in the South Florida/Cincinnati ESPN match-up.

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James Patrick Sports

Miami Florida vs. Virginia

Their will be a lot of support for the Miami Hurricanes this Saturday in Charlottesville as they look for revenge from last season’s humiliating loss to the Cavaliers in the final game played in the historic Orange Bowl.(48-0). Don’t be so quick to pull the trigger on the Canes this Saturday as Virginia is 34-8 straight up at home and Miami just 4-9 straight up on the road. Our selection in Saturday NCAA College Football action is Virginia Cavaliers to continue a solid record in the role of home underdogs.

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John Ryan

Game: Arkansas St. at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Alabama (NCAA FB) - AiS shows a 73% probability that Alabama will win this game by 24 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 34-7 ATS for 83% since 1992. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are average passing teams gaining 6.4-7.5 yards per attempt and are facing average passing defense allowing 6.4-7.5 yards per attempt after 7+ games. AiS also shows an 85% probability that Alabama will gain a MINIMUM of 500 yards in this game. Note that Alabama is a perfect 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards since 1992. Alabama had an excellent defensive game at Tennessee last week allowing just 36 rushing yards on 21 carries and just 137 passing yards on 28 attempts. Note that HC Saban is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992. Yes, they do have the LSU showdown next week, but Saban's leadership and experience will NOT allow this team to get caught looking ahead. Not with so much at stake. Take Alabama

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Kansas -10.5

I'll take Kansas in a big bounce back spot at home in this rivalry game. Kansas has now lost back-to-back games and I can guarantee you that last week's 63-21 home loss to Texas Tech has not been sitting well. Kansas has the ability to score points in bunches with Todd Reesing under center and that's what you can expect to see this week as the Jayhawks take on a bad K-State defense. K-State is 3-12 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better over the last 3 seasons and 7-20 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992. Kansas is 15-5 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Lay the points.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Hawaii Warriors -7

I see a big letdown in store for Utah State this week after coming so close to beating Fresno State a week ago. Hawaii continues to get better and better on the offensive side of the football and is now 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games. Utah State is just 1-7 on the season and has lost 4 in a row. Hawaii has won 3 straight against the Aggies with all 3 wins coming by 15 points or more. This is not the same Colt Brennan led offense, but it is one that was good enough to beat both Freno State and Nevada. Nevada crushed Utah State 44-17 by the way. Lay the points with the Warriors here.

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Dave Malinsky

Tennessee @ South Carolina
PICK: 4* South Carolina  -5

Old habits die hard, and so do perceptions that have been based on results for a long period of time. That is the case with the betting markets and their rating of Phil Fulmer and his Tennessee Volunteers right now. Last week there was a major line move backing them against Alabama in the middle of the week that opened the door for us to cash a 4* ticket, and now we find ourselves in a similar position, with Wednesday’s Tennessee money now taking this one to the right plateau for us to back the much fresher and much better team in a bargain range.

The bottom line with Tennessee is that this team is nowhere near the outstanding squads Fulmer has turned out in the past, and the key for our purposes is that the decline actually started LY, but was not noticed. That is what happens when a team makes it to the S.E.C. championship game. But it took some good fortune for that to happen – the Volts had two conference wins that came in overtime, and an additional escape vs. Vanderbilt by a single point in regulation. One of those overtime wins came against Steve Spurrier and Carolina, and it was a win that absolutely did not belong on the Tennessee ledger – the Gamecocks led by stunning counts of +15 in first downs and 184 yards in total offense, but they were -3 in turnovers, including two in the final 6:52 of regulation play.6

Now fast forward and what was an only average Tennessee team in 2007 is an even weaker squad this time around. In opening 1-4 in S.E.C. play the Vols have averaged only 12.2 first downs and 221.2 yards per game, which is why three of the defeats came by at least a dozen points. This is not a case of an offense that is misfiring, but rather one that does not have the weapons to make plays, and now that they are taking the field for the 8th time in as many weeks, there are levels of physical and emotional fatigue that make it most difficult to get any of that turned around.

Contrast their state of mind and body with that of South Carolina, which has had two full weeks to not only get physically fresh for this one, but to also let those films of LY’s defeat build an extremely high focus level. And that time off is a major tactical edge for Spurrier as well – it means a chance for some extended time with QB Stephen Garcia working with the first team offense, and that is going to create a one-two option at the position that the Old Ball Coach can use to frustrate opposing defenses, with Garcia’s mobility creating many more run options, and Chris Smelley changing the pace in the passing game.

This one is really won by the Carolina defense, however. The Gamecocks are #1 in the S.E.C. and #6 in the nation in total defense, a success rate that has led to Ellis Johnson getting a contract extension during the bye week (from Spurrier - ”I think we’ve got the best defensive coordinator in the country”). His athletic group can completely stifle the pedestrian Tennessee skill players, and dominate field position throughout.

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Wunderdog

Iowa at Illinois
Pick: Iowa +2.5

The Illini have not been nearly as potent as they were last year and as the schedule toughens, the flaws have been shining through. They have managed just two wins in their last five games, and those were to the weaker teams in the Big-10 in Indiana and Michigan. The problem is they can't stop teams with a good running game, which is exactly what Iowa brings to the table. Illinois is allowing 152 rushing yards per game and Iowa is pounding the ball for 155 per game. This is simply a bad matchup for Illinois. The Illini have yet to hold any opponent to less than 17 points on the season, while Iowa has been spectacular on defense allowing 11.5 ppg on the season. The Hawkeyes, who have won two straight and covered four of five, have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, this will be the Illini's sixth straight game, and the lack of depth is taking its toll. I like teams that play defense and can run the ball on the road. Makes the Hawkeyes a live dog here.

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Jack Clayton

Tulsa at Arkansas
Pick:     Arkansas
   
So let me get this straight....an SEC team is a dog against a C-USA one? And at home, no less! As great as Tulsa's offense is, the 'D' is a concern, especially when stepping up in class. Arkansas is beginning to grasp the spread offense of new coach Bobby Petrino. The Razorbacks dominated the game with an edge in yards 428-185 in a win over Auburn behind senior QB Casey Dick. I'll take the improving SEC team getting points. Play Arkansas.

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SCOTT FERRALL

KENT +6.5 from Bowling Green--Kent actually averages more points and is 15th in country in rushing

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2.5 from Indiana--The Chips score more and are 19th in NCAA in passing.  They are better nationally in every category

VIRGINIA -1.5 to Miami--The Cavs are 4-1 at home and have been playing great lately, including big win at Geo tech in OT last Saturday

AIR FORCE -8.5 to Army--The Falcons just produce more on the ground and score 12 more pts per game on average than the Cadets.  AF is 4-0 on the road this season

PURDUE -2.5 to Michigan--they both suck, but the Boilers are 2-3 at home and the Wolverines are 0-2 on the road.  Purdue wins their first conference game

OL MISS -6 to Auburn--The Rebels are better in everything than Auburn-points per game, rushing, passing, total yards, etc

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WILD BILL

Central Mich +2 1/2 (5 units)
Iowa +1 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn +6 (5 units)
San Diego St +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia +5 1/2 (5 units)
Texas Tech +6 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -14 1/2 (5 units)
Wash St +30 (5 units)
Kentucky +3 (5 units)
Florida St +2 (5 units)
TCU -14 (5 units)
Rice -2 (5 units)
Ark St +24 (5 units)
Under 50 Iowa-Illini (5 units) 
Over 65 Iowa St-Okie State (5 units)
Arkansas +7 (5 units)
Over 38 Tenn-South Carolina (5 units)
Over 56 1/2 Georgia-Fla (5 units)
Over 64 1/2 Oregon-Cal (5 units)
Under 71 1/2 Nebraska-Oklahoma (5 units)
Over 55 BYU-Colorado St (5 units)
Over 54 Boise-N M State (5 units)

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Allen Eastan

$700.00 -106 Cincinnati (+2.5) over South Florida (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 30)
Home underdogs have been a moneymaker all season long on ESPN primetime games and I think we are going to see another home dog score a win tonight. Everyone is jumping on South Florida in this game, but the Bulls have bee none of the more disappointing teams in the country this year. USF is 0-8 ATS against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and has won three of the last four meetings – all by double-digits. The Bearcats will roll in this one.

$1000.00-105 Michigan State (-4.5) over Wisconsin (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
Wisconsin managed a nice win against Illinois last week. But Illinois is not very good this year and that win is not that impressive. The Badgers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and have lost to any of the top-tier Big 10 teams that they’ve faced. Michigan State has covered the last two meetings and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games

$900.00 +103 Florida State (+2.5) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
The Seminoles have now won four tough games in a row and are on a roll in he ACC. Georgia Tech is coming off a loss as a two-touchdown favorite, at home, to weak Virginia. The Yellowjackets have been a great story this year, but this will be the toughest defense they have faced this year. The Seminoles are No. 3 in the country in total defense and No. 7 in the country in rushing defense. I think that the wrong team is favored in this game and that the Seminoles will win this one outright.

$300.00-108 Florida (-6) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
I think that the Gators are going to get revenge for last year’s surprising loss to the Bulldogs. There was a lot of trash talked during and after that game by Georgia, and I think that Florida remembers it all too well. The Gators have won their last three games by 30 points or more and have more impressive wins over common opponents. Florida has also won eight of 10 in this series and I think that they score a big victory on Saturday.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Florida -6 vs Georgia

Single Plays

Texas Tech +4 vs Texas
Texas A&M -32 vs Colorado
Nebraska +22 vs Oklahoma
Kansas State +10 vs Kansas
Notre Dame -4.5 vs Pittsburgh
South Carolina -5.5 vs Tennessee
LSU -25 vs Tulane
Oregon State -15 vs Arizona State
San Jose -16.5 vs Idaho
West Virginia -4 vs UConn
Air Force -8.5 vs Army
Kent State +6.5 vs Bowling Green
Arkansas State +22.5 vs Alabama
Louisville -13.5 vs Syracuse

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matty Baiungo

Auburn vs. Mississippi
Play: Auburn + 6½

Mississippi has been popular in this space in 2008. We’ve gone with them or against them in at least five of their eight games this year. Last week, I detailed a few reasons on why the Rebels should go into Arkansas and get a solid win. And that looked to be the case with Ole Miss up by 9 with just over 1:30 to play. But that dreaded backdoor touchdown made the score closer than how the game played out. And in fact, after Arkansas scored that late TD to cut the Rebels’ lead to 23-21, they recovered an onside kick to make things interesting, but came up short. We passed this game on the late phones because Arkansas running back Michael Smith was cleared to play after sustaining a concussion the week before. Smith did his damage going for 129 yards and a TD on 19 carries, but Ole Miss played an inspired game despite only winning the game by 2 points.

The Rebels have had a lot of highs and lows this year, especially over their last five games. They lost at home as a 7 ½-point favorite to Vanderbilt and then won at Florida as 22-point underdogs. Off that big win, they lost as a home favorite to South Carolina and then went to Alabama and lost by 4. Off that near miss, they hold on to beat Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t just another SEC game for them. It was a game in which they put a lot of passion into for their head coach Houston Nutt. “I think everybody on the team wanted to give 100 percent so we’d win it for him,” Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead said. And we’ve seen the Rebels play flat off a win all year as they’ve yet to win back-to-back games. They currently have 4 wins with 4 games to play, and if they want to get to a bowl game, they’ll need to win two more along the way. And that is something they know is very attainable with Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi St coming up. So the desire to win here may not be as strong as it should be, especially with Auburn off three consecutive losses and the Rebels off the big win for their coach.

Auburn is in turmoil. There’s no denying that fact. After firing Tony Franklin, head coach Tommy Tuberville is also looking over his shoulder. And it’s quite possible that his team has quit on him. But we won’t know that for sure until this game goes final. This is Auburn’s season right here. They need to win this game badly. Tuberville and Franklin never saw eye-to-eye on the quarterback situation, and Tuberville handed the offense over to Kodi Burns once Franklin was dismissed. And after their loss at West Virginia, Tuberville ditched the finesse of the spread and is going back to power football. On Sunday, he put his team through a tough practice according to tailback Brad Lester. "That's probably the hardest we've gone all season, almost like a two-a-day practice." Tuberville has the focus of his team heading into this game, but the same cannot be said of Houston Nutt. After his satisfying win over his old team, Nutt said: “It’s going to be a happy plane ride and a happy practice tomorrow.” Play Auburn plus the points.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

Louisville vs. Syracuse
Play: -Louisville +12.5

This spread can't be right. UofL just beat a tough USF team and now they think they will only beat the worst team in the Big East by 12. No way this one is even close. UL will run the ball right down the throat of SYR and win going away. UL if you look at there schedule has a chance to finish in a nice bowl if they can keep up there winning ways. Many still remember that opening embarrasing loss to UK. Don't hold that against them because since then they have played much better and have quit turning the ball over. Take UL in a laugher. SCORE UL 45 - SYR 20 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

Battle of winless league teams I like Wyoming to get the win at home minus the small chalk. After all thanks to Wyoming playing a San Diego State team that is even worst then the Cowboys and I am more then happy to lay a small price tag on the home team today. A home team that despite all of their struggles this season the Cowboys do have a strong rushing attack which will bold well against the Aztecs stop unit which ranks last in the nation against the rush by allowing 282 yards per game. Meanwhile, mix in a bunch of Southern California kids traveling to the high and cold plains of Laramie in November and I don’t see the Aztecs breaking the series trend of the home team winning the last 5 games straight up. Not when the Aztecs lost 70-7 at New Mexico in their last road trip. Flat out, even though Wyoming is an awful 0-14-1 ATS since last year I look for that streak to end today as the Cowboys win at least one more game for Coach Glenn.

Take Wyoming minus the points!

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