Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Michael Alexander

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Green Bay Packers +4.5

The Green Bay Packers travel to "Music City" to take on the unbeaten Tennessee Titans. The Packers are coming off a bye week and impressive 34-14 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the previous game. After losing three in a row Green Bay seems to have righted the ship winning their last two in a row. Their offense has produced 27.7 pionts per game this season and are even better on the road averaging 32 per game. Their defense has struggled giving up 24 points per game but they'll be getting back some key starters after the week of rest.

The Titans, although unbeaten, have not silenced the critics of the early easy schedule even though they are coming off a win of their own over the Colts last week 31-21. They are 7-0 both SU and ATS on the season. Their offense, although without Vince Young, doesn't seem to have missed a beat as they are averaging 25.7 points per game. Their defense has been their strength as they are allowing only 12.4 points per game.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons. GREEN BAY is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS after their L8 bye weeks.

The Titans have an outstanding record, but have played a weak schedule going against Jacksonville opening week when the Jaguars had a depleted offensive line, along with facing Cincinnati, Houston, Minnesota and Kansas City. The Titans are more reliable in taking points, rather than giving them. I'm taking Green Bay in this one.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tony George

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Play: Dallas Cowboys  +9.5

Contrarians Play here. The entire universe on the Giants here. I look for reasons weekly to the underdogs. Dallas does not provide many items to go with here with Romo out and Whitten doubtful, but I like Dallas to cover the number here based on the fact revenge is a HUGE factor in the NFL. New York knocked them out of the playoffs last year in Dallas, and they have not forgot that. The Giants are off a brutal game at Pittsburgh last week that was hard hitting and took its toll on them. They showed some weakness' in that game I think Dallas can exploit with their team speed.

Dallas played a good Tampa Bay team last week and was held to 13 points at home, but I do not think the Giants defense is as good as Tampa's, who are underrated. Never underestimate this Dallas team, they have talent at skill positions all over the place and I am not sold on the Giants being as good as advertised. The Browns exposed them on Monday Night a few weeks back and Dallas has the players to use that gameplan. I expect RB Barber to have a good game and QB Johnson to use allot of underneath pass routes to move the chains against zone coverage.

In the last 3 weeks the Giants have averaged 21 ppg on offense and yet allowed 22 ppg on defense! That is a telling stat. I use recent trends and stats all the time in the NFL, not season averages. If Dallas holds them under 24 points here, it is an easy cover, because Dallas will score points in this game, and I expect a lot of Terrell Owens who has been somewhat silent in recent weeks in terms of receptions, and with WR Williams getting a lot of snaps, that could be a potent angle that Jason Garrett will call this weekend. A clash of titans here and it should be a great game and tighter than you expect, Dallas will not go quietly into the night here

NY Giants 24 Dallas 21..Grab the Points.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -4.5

In an extremely unusual situation, Houston has played 4 consecutive home games in the last 4 weeks and have really put up some points against some weak opponents. As if that weren't enough, they've had weak opponents the last two weeks in Detroit and Cinci. Those are the only two games where Houston's poor defense hasn't given up 28 points or more. Minnesota has put up mediocre results on both sides of the ball against a somewhat tougher schedule, and are giving up 24 PPG this year. Both teams are sitting at 3-4 and need a good performance to establish their chances the rest of the way. I'll take the RESTED VIKINGS off their BYE week to deliver for the home fans against a visitor in their first game on turf in the dome.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Nelly

Oakland + over Atlanta

The Raiders fell flat last week following up a big win but Atlanta has a tough draw here playing a second straight road game and going clear across the country. Turnovers killed a competitive effort for Atlanta last week and the Raiders could have some success in this match-up as the Falcons lack a strong run defense. Oakland has not had great success at home in recent years but this looks like a dangerous spot and a tricky line for Atlanta.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Seattle Seahawks

When the Seattle Seahawks return home to host the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon they will find themselves in a most desirable handicapping situation. That occurs whenever a team in the NFL has their next game up next against the defending Super Bowl champions. If the team owns a win percentage of less than .700 on the season and they are installed as road favorites they are just 1-15 ATS since 1980! Look for the Eagles to drop to 0-5 ATS in Game Eight of the season while the Seahawks improve to 5-1 ATS in Game Eight of the season here today. Grab the points with Seattle

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King Creole Sports

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
2** Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL

We're getting to the time of the season where we start seeing a reverse variation of King's 'OU TIME ZONE System". That System usually pertains to Western time zone teams traveling to an Eastern time zone. But taking a look at the opposite direction can be just as revealing.... in certain specific conditions. For instance, once we start getting into November, we want to go the OPPOSITE way (Under) when we have an opposite dramatic time zone change. 1-9 O/U for all Eastern time zone teams playing in a Western time zone in weeks 8 thru 14 (ATLANTA)... under certain point spread parameters.

The Eagles came off their Bye just like they entered it, with a SUATS win vs the Falcons. The qualify in a System which has gone 0-4 O/U this year: FAVS off a SUATS win after AND before their BYE week.

The Eagles rushed for 192 yards in the big win over Atlanta. NFL teams went 2-10-2 O/U in October off a SU win w/ 170+ rushing yards.

Seattle is off a surprising division dog win (34-13) vs the Niners. It’s historically a good ‘Under’ situation, and it’s been solid this year too. 8-22 O/U s’2003 for Game 9 < teams off a SU div win as a dog of 4+ points. DOGS in this role are 0-7 O/U in the last 3 years.

Here’s the angle that pertains to THIS season only: 1-5 O/U TY for ALL teams off a SU div win as a dog 4+ pts. Philly’s #10 defense shuts down a one-dimensional offense.

This game is a 2** Play on King Creole's GAMEDAY service. If you want some more Over / Under insight, then join us (me and Speedee) for Sunday's 3-Play "TOTALS TRIFECTA" on the picks for sale page. Good luck to all OU players in week nine!

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

2* Philadelphia at Seattle

The Eagles have been a solid team this year but injuries have kept them from becoming what a lot of people thought of as a Super Bowl contender. Now sitting in fourth place in their own division they need to finish the season strong. They travel cross-country here to take on a Seattle team that despite a terrible start is just two games out of the divisional lead. The Eagles return home next week for a huge Sunday Night Football showdown with the defending champion Giants. RB Westbrook missed some games in the last month because of injuries but he did return last week to give the team a boost. That said he has two broken ribs and an ankle injury so his status for full game action is always in question.The Eagles have been installed as a touchdown favorite here and that looks to be too high a price to pay for a team that has struggled with teams they are superior to. We can see the veteran Eagles winning the game but we simply can't see then doing so by a margin.Seattle is installed as a home underdog for just the third time in the last six years. Despite their earlier problems this season they remain 25-6 straight up and 20-10-1 ATS playing at Quest Field. Seneca Wallace will once again start behind center for the Birds and that should be a benefit for the host. He is very mobile and capable of turning in big yardage in the running game. That's very important when you match up against this blitzing Philadelphia defense. The Seahawks must travel back to the east coast next week to take on the Dolphins. If you've been following our plays all season you know that's a terrible scheduling situation, and Seattle knows that first hand. Therefore look for a supreme effort this week from the host as they try to keep their divisional title hopes alive.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jim Feist

NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALO BILLS
Take: BUFFALO BILLS

Reason: The Jets (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are a tough team to figure out. A lot was expected from the Jets this season, after they were big free agent spenders, but they’ve been inconsistent, ranking 12th in total defense, 15th in offense. New 39-year old QB Brett Favre (15 TDs, 11 INTs) has 3 TDs, 7 INTs the last 3 games! The ground game is ranked 15th, with RB Thomas Jones (532 yards, 4.4 ypc) and the passing game has WR Lavearneus Coles (433 yards, 5 TDs) and WR Jerricho Cotchery (36, 430 yards, 3 TDs). They are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS the last three games against bad teams, beating the Bengals (26-14), losing at Oakland (16-13), then needing a late TD to beat the Chiefs at home (28-24). Those teams have a combined mark 4-17 and the Jets posted a minus-8 turnover margin. There wasn't any bravado in the locker room after Sunday's 28-24 escape against the hapless Chiefs. After an afternoon of boos and interceptions, Brett Favre walked slowly out of the Jets' locker room, flanked by two team doctors. As he approached family members in the tunnel, he called out to one, "Stick a fork in me." He said it with a smile. The Bills (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) and Patriots (5-2) are tied atop the AFC East, and the Jets come to Ralph Wilson Stadium one game back at 4-3. The Buffalo defense is 11th in the NFL (20.4 ppg allowed) and the offense is 18th overall, with 23.6 points per game. They are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS the last two years in games decided by 6 points or less. Second-year QB Trent Edwards (5 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,436 yards) is 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS as their starter, and has good weapons with RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs are Lee Evans (637 yards), Josh Reed (288), slot WR Roscoe Parrish (82 yards). However, WR Josh Reed suffered an Achilles' injury Sunday and did not return. Buffalo is off a 25-16 loss at Miami. QB Trent Edwards suffered through a mostly miserable afternoon as he threw an interception and lost two fumbles, one of which resulted in a safety. Look for the Bills to rebound today at home as they are one of the best in the AFC. Favre just doesn't have the personnel that he had to work with in Green Bay and it's showing. Take the Bills here on Sunday!

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Atlanta at Oakland

Atlanta is 9-1 UNDER in road games off one or more straight Unders and they are 13-4 UNDER UNDER as road favorites of 3 or less points. The Falcons are 20-8 UNDER in November and they are 41-19-2 UNDER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Oakland is 13-5-1 UNDER after scoring less than 15 points in their last game and they are 41-18-2 UNDER their last 61 games vs. winning teams. The Raiders are 4-1-1 UNDER in Week 9 and they are 5-1 UNDER after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jimmy The Moose

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Over

Arizona is averaging 28.6 PPG and their D is allowing 24.4 PPG this season making the over a profitable 5-2 on the year. In the Cardinals last 54 road games the over is a profitable 39-15. In their last 17 games following an ATS win the over is 14-3. The over is 36-17 in their last 53 games overall. Under Haslett St. Louis has finally found their offense. The Rams have played over the total in their last 6 home games. In their last 11 games following a SU loss the over is 9-2. St. Louis has played the over in 6 of their last 8 vs. NFC team's. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in the Cardinals lst 6 visits to St. Louis. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings overall between the clubs. Look for a high-scoring game this afternoon. Play the over.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -8.5

The Dallas Cowboys eked out a big home win without Tony Romo against a solid Tampa Bay squad last week despite scoring only 13 points.

The Cowboys are limping into their bye next week trying to get by starting a washed-up human statue at quarterback, Brad Johnson. They're not going to get away with another close decision here.

The Giants are too good, arguably the best team in football, have home-field and the necessary power in the trenches to keep Dallas from playing smashmouth.

The Cowboys want to ride Marion Barber and have Johnson just do his dink-and-dunk routine. Johnson has lived down to his derisive nickname of "Checkdown" because he rarely even looks downfield. Just ask Terrell Owens how frustrating that is. Owens is reduced to cipher status with just seven receptions for 64 yards during the past two weeks while Johnson fills in for Romo.

That's not going to get it done against the Giants. The defending Super Bowl champions aren't stupid. Barber is going to see eight-man fronts and Owens is going to face press coverage and double-teams.

There is a sentiment that you can't lay this many points with the Giants against such a strong division foe. I ask why not? Right now the Cowboys are just the Cowboys in name only.

They are full of holes and injuries. Johnson should have retired after he helped Tampa Bay win the Super Bowl. He's embarrassing to watch now. He's so bad that career journeyman Brooks Bollinger may see action. Anytime you see a quarterback from Wisconsin on the field the white flag has been raised.

The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and Johnson probably won't have his main checkdown target, tight end Jason Witten. He has a broken rib and has been unable to practice. I seriously doubt he plays.

The Giants have a power, balanced attack and a swarming, well-coached defense that leads the league in sacks. Even though they are off a tough game, too, beating Pittsburgh, they certainly won't lack for incentive to bury their hated division foe.

Once the inevitable starts to happen - the Cowboys falling behind - then things are going to detoriate real fast for Dallas. You will be sorry then that you didn't lay the points here.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Game Time Sports Advisors

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Cleveland Browns -1

We are backing the Browns as our FREE PLAY Nice revenge spot after getting mauled 25-10 in BLT. Baltimore off wins over Miami and Oakland, but have lost 7 of 9 on the road and are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Browns have the clear edge on offense here, but you will be suprised to know that their D is just as good as the Ravens. Cleveland has held 9 of their last 11 foes to under 20 points. Ravens just 4-9 ATS vs division on the road.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore Ravens ML 

Well many have jumped back on the bandwagon for the Browns. Not me I still believe this team can't consistently stop people on defense and the offense still will give up too many TO's. On the other hand I love the up and coming BAL team. In fact still think they have very good chance to make playoffs. Everybody knows about BAL defense and how stingy they are but lets give credit to there improving offense. They have added Troy Smith package into there game plan and have had much success with it. Look for him to get even more snaps and special plays this week. Take the Ravens in an easy win. SCORE BAL 27 - CLE 16

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

WILD BILL

New York Jets +5 1/2 (5 units)
Packers +5 1/2 (5 units)
Miami Dolphins +3 (5 units)
Dallas Cowboys +9 1/2 (5 units)
Philadelphia Eagles -7 (5 units)
Patriots +5 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (5 units)
Tenn-Green Bay Packers Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
Giants-Dallas Cowboys Over 41 (5 units)
Colts-Patriots Over 44 (5 units)

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Nevada Sharpshooter

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The 4-3 Ravens travel to Cleveland to take on the 3-4 Browns. Last week the Ravens brought back the single wing offense using two Quarterbacks on the field at once. One of the plays from this formation resulted in a 43 yard TD pass from QB Smith to QB Flacco vs the Raiders. The reason is clear why the Ravens have resorted to trickery, they have been unable to move the ball consistantly using more convential plays.  The Raven offense ranks dead last in the NFL averaging a paltry 239.5 yards per game. The defense which is battling through some key injuries has been mediorce ranking 19th in the league and 23rd vs the rush.

Cleveland will look to continue its strong play after a 23-17 road win over Jacksonville last week.  After a bad start the Browns are starting to look like a team ready to contend for a playoff spot.  While they still rank 27th in defense, they have moved up to 9th in the league in offense.  The Browns also have a humiliating 10-28 loss in week 3 to avenge against the Ravens.

Don’t let the records fool you, Cleveland is the better team here.  The Ravens 4 wins are against Cincy, Cleveland (early), Miami and Oakland.   Cleveland though is playing well right now, after a slow start they have won 3 of their last 4 including victories over the New York Giants and the road win over Jacksonville.  Take Cleveland -1.5 over Baltimore.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Mike Wynn Sports

Green Bay @ Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans may have silenced some of the critics with an impressive come from behind win over Indianapolis Monday night. Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the league at 7-0, but they’ll have test on their hands here Sunday when the Packers come to town. Green Bay is also coming off a win over Indianapolis in week 7 and they manhandled the Colts in a 34-14 win at Lambeau Field. Packers played their best game of the year in that win and they should be a well prepared team having the bye week to get ready for the Titans Sunday. So let’s take a closer look at both these squads and we’ll start with the visiting Packers.

Green Bay Packers have to be pretty pleased with the position of their team right now. The Packers are 4-3 on the season and they’re coming off arguably their best two games of the season, winning at Seattle and at home over Indianapolis. Packer fans have to be pleased with Aaron Rogers and the job he’s doing. Rogers had to endure the Favre fiasco in the off-season and pre-season, and all he’s done is be terrific. Rogers has completed 65.6% of his passes this season and his 12 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio stacks with most anybody in the league. In the running game Ryan Grant has started the season slowly being injured coming into the season, but he’s been improving and should be 100% for this one coming off a bye week. Grant is the workhorse out of the backfield for the Pack with 464 yards on the season, but his 3.4 yards per carry is way down from last years 5.1. WR Greg Jennings has become Rogers favorite target in the passing game. Jennings 37 catches and 4 touchdowns leads all Packer receivers this season and he’s terrific in getting yards after the catch. On the defensive side of the ball the Packers will be tested against the Tennessee rushing attack. Green Bay defense only ranks as number 25 in the league against the run, but they’re solid against the pass ranking number 6. Green Bay will have to find a way to get Tennessee is into some third and long situations and take advantage of their defensive strength.

Tennessee Titans remain the only unbeaten, but I don’t think the 72 Dolphins are too worried at this point. Jeff Fisher has a blue-collar team that plays great defensive and controls the clock with the smash mouth running game. Tennessee Titans won’t blow many teams out but they won’t be blown out either. Tennessee leads the AFC in rushing at 144 yards per game on the ground, but the passing game is only ranked number 15. Tennessee QB Kerry Collins isn’t asked to do a whole lot offensively, but he showed Monday night that he can make the throws and led Tennessee to the win over the Colts. Collins numbers aren’t very good as he’s completed 58.2% of his passes and has 3 thrown interceptions to just 3 touchdowns this year. Titans prefer to get it done in the trenches where they run behind a big offensive line. Chris Johnson & LenDale White are both having nice seasons. Johnson averaging 5.1 yards per carry leads the team in rushing with 626 yards on the ground, while LenDale White is the man at the goal line leading the league in rushing touchdowns with 10. In the passing game the Titans rarely go deep and tend to throw to the tight ends Bo Scaife & Alge Crumpler. Scaife leads the team in catches and receiving yardage this season and has 1 of just 4 receiving touchdowns this season. Tennessee obviously not built to outscore opponents but they’re built to play terrific defense. Tennessee gives up just 90 yards a game on the ground and just 185 yards per game through the air, and kicker Rob Bironis has one the best legs in the NFL. Play great defense, have a great kicker, and controlling the clock with a strong running game is Jeff Fisher’s recipe for success and it’s working so far this season for the Titans.

Taking a look at the trends and angles for this one, both teams are certainly go withs right now. Tennessee is 7-0 straight up and ATS this season while the Packers are riding a 17-7 ATS run over the last couple of seasons. Green Bay also 14-5 ATS in all road games the last 3 seasons while Tennessee is a solid 29-14 ATS versus non-conference opponents since 1992. I can’t find a good reason to take a side in this one Sunday so we’ll focus on the total and advise an over play Sunday. Green Bay 12-4 over the total the last 3 seasons including 4-1 over as a road dog of 3½-7 points. Tennessee with their defense a surprising 3-1 over the total this year at home and they’re a huge 30-15 over versus non-conference foes since 1992 including 10-3 over versus the NFC North. Take this one over the total of 42 points Sunday.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Dr. Vegas

Dolphins vs Broncos

Here is a game between couple of near-.500 teams looking to break away from the pack. Miami is 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Dolphins have lost their road games by an average of 1 point per game, while the Broncos’ home average - despite a 3-1 home record - is a 0.3 points per game deficit. This is because their three home wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points respectively. Their one home loss was by 7 points, thus skewing the home margin of victory average. And despite their winning record, the Broncos have been outscored 195-173 on the year. The Dolphins are about even, having scored 145 and given up 146 points in 2008.

Denver is coming off a bye week, which they needed after their 34-point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots. Their “hot” offense was turned off handily, and their horrid defense showed their true colors. Broncos defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has been under the gun to improve things on his end, which he said will come through simplification of their system.

Looking at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Miami at +0.56 with an opponent rating of +1.0. Denver’s PR is -0.45, with an opponent PR of +0.09. Neither has been exemplary, nor have their opponents. The Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 straight against the spread. Miami has covered 5 of the last 5.

The Broncos are trying to adjust, and they could face problems with the Dolphins solid rushing game.

Take Miami +3 over Denver.

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Razor Sharp Sports

New York Jets vs Buffalo

Heading into this season, I don’t think anyone would even try to make an argument that anyone besides the New England Patriots would win the AFC East.  Now here we are with all the teams in that division with 7 games and it truly is a dogfight for all 4 teams.  The Patriots and the Bills are tied for the lead at 5-2, but the New York Jets are just a game back at 4-3 and even Miami is 3-4 and playing much better.  So this week when the Jets head up-state to take on the Bills, the AFC East lead will be up for grabs.  Let’s take a look at each of the teams in this crucial divisional match-up.

First you have the visiting Jets.  Heading into the season, the Jets were a media darling to make the playoffs.  They added a couple of key offensive linemen in Damien Woody and Alan Faneca and they had a favorable schedule.  Oh yeah, they also added the All-Time leader in passing yards, touchdown, consecutive games played and pretty much any other meaningful QB record in Brett Favre.  Favre has had his ups and downs this season.  He had the game where he threw 6 touchdowns, but since has just 3 TD passes while throwing 7 interceptions.  Maybe the Jets should take a look at the 2007 Green Bay Packers.  They were much more effective running the ball first last season and then letting Favre throw.  The Jets have 4 former 1st round draft picks on the offense line, still they rank 15th in rushing.  Thomas Jones is the teams leading rusher, but is averaging just 76 yards per game.  The defense is still the strength of this team.  They rank 4th in the NFL in rush defense but are 20th in points allowed.

The home team here may be one of the biggest surprises so far in the NFL.  Buffalo has gotten solid play out of young QB Trent Edwards, a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch and consistant defensive play.  Edwards is currently ranked 8th in the NFL in QB rating at 92.9.  He is completing 68% of his passes with 5 TDs and only 3 interceptions.  Marshawn Lynch is 4th in the NFL in Rushing TDs with 6.  He has also run for 450 yards.  On defense, the team is ranked 11th with 20.4 points per game and 302.3 yards.  After a 4-0 start, they have dropped 2 of their last 3 games.

So what do I expect here,  well we are starting to get to the time of the season when the weather starts coming into play for the northern teams.  Look for both of these teams to try to use their running games and solid defense to control the game.  I expect a low scoring contest here.Take the NY Jets/Buffalo game UNDER the total of 42.   

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ROCKETMAN

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Play:3* Cleveland -1 1/2

Cleveland is 22-9 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in November. Cleveland is 11-2 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 10-3 SU and ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Ravens are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games. Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Browns are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Browns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. Browns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North. Browns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. We'll play Cleveland for 3 units today!


#6 David Ragan vs #29 Kevin Harvick 
Play On:  1* #29 Kevin Harvick -105

Kevin Harvick has 1 top 5 finish and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 10 races in Texas.  Harvick has a decent average finish of 14.4 in Texas.  David Ragan has no Top 5 finishes and no Top 10 finishes in his 3 races here in Texas.  Ragan's average finish is a very poor 29.7 which is one of the worst on the circuit.  Kevin Harvick's average finish over the past 10 races is 9.0. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 7 top 10 finishes.  We'll recommend a small play on Kevin Harvick to finish ahead of David Ragan today!

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John Fina

Selection: Cleveland Browns -2

Reason: Put us down on the Cleveland Browns -2 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. Cleveland is the most likely candidate to win this game because they have a superior offense, have a defense that is far better than what is given credit for, and they are playing at home. This combined with the low spread makes a very appealing opportunity. While Baltimore has an exceptional defense, it doesn’t do very well on the road. In the past 12 road games, the Ravens are 3-9 ATS, and in their last 9 road games they where unsuccessful 7 times. The value of the Browns’ defense has gone largely unnoticed. They are ranked 7th in the NFL in scoring defense and Cleveland has recently been up against some very strong offenses such as the Redskins and the Giants. They have only allowed an average of 14 points in their last four games. The Ravens’ offense is pedestrian and rookie QB Joe Flacco lacks the required experience. Tight end Todd Heap and tailback Willis McGahee are overrated and way too slow. Heap hasn’t been able to score a single touchdown to date. Baltimore has difficulty with pass defense, and the Browns are good enough in the passing attack to take advantage of this. Cleveland will probably have tight end Kellen Winslow back and in the last 3 games, QB Derek Anderson hasn’t thrown an interception. We’ve seen Anderson’s confidence level increase a lot recently. This game marks the 3rd time the Ravens have traveled in the last 4 weeks. Cleveland will show a high level of motivation for this game as well, seeking vengeance after they were defeated by Baltimore 28-10 in week 3. That loss marked the first time in 6 matchups against the Ravens where they didn’t cover. In their last 10 games, Cleveland has managed to cover 9 of them. While the Browns’ season started off slowly they’ve really stepped it up at this point. Take the Cleveland Browns -2!

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