Sunday Service Plays
Sunday Service Plays
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
The Jets saw last week's game against KC finish above the total. They're facing a much better defense this week though. Indeed, the Chiefs allow 27.6 points and 404.7 totals yards per game. Conversely, the Bills allow only 302 total yards and 20.4 points per game. The Bills' defense has been particularly stingy at home. In three "home" games, they're allowing a mere 15.7 points and 254 total yards. Note the Bills, who came up short at Miami last week, have seen the UNDER go 5-1 the last six times that they were coming off a loss vs. a division opponent. Looking at the recent series history between these teams and we find that the UNDER was 2-0 last season. Those games had final combined scores of just 31 and 16 points. This afternoon's over/under line has already climbed from it's opening number and I feel that we're now getting solid value. Consider the Under
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Bet on the VIKINGS to cover the spread
Minnesota are no world-beaters this season but several factors make them the side to go for in this Sunday's game against the Texans. Houston have won 3 games in a row, but all of those were at home and against very mediocre teams (Lions, Bengals, and Dolphins), and they only covered one of those games. They've also played all season without a bye to date and are a poor road team who struggles in domes.
The Vikings for their part come in rested off a bye, they're at home, and right in the thick of things in a weak NFC North division. We banked coin last time out when this team played by taking the Bears at home but Minnesota put up tons of offense and made it close. Look for a big home win from the VIKINGS along with the cover here.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -3
The Broncos still sit atop the AFC West, one of the worst divisions in football along with the NFC West. They currently hold a two game lead in the loss column and will welcome in the Miami Dolphins to Invesco Field on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off of a bye and have traditional been a great team in this spot going 15-4 ATS. They got blown out by New England and their bye could not have come at a better time. The Dolphins have shown improvement of late, but are still just 1-2 away from South Beach. Denver has trouble stopping teams, but Miami does not light-up the scoreboard, instead they play a ball
Re: Sunday Service Plays
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +3
Atlanta has now lost 3 of 4 SU and ATS on the road this season as it is becoming the downfall of this young team. Oakland returns home after getting clocked by Baltimore and it will be ready to pull off another upset win just as it did against the Jets two weeks back. The Falcons are just 1-6 SU & ATS in their L7 games on the road dating back to last season, scoring only 15 ppg in the process. They also haven't won it Oakland since prior to 1992. Plays against favorites (ATLANTA) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 76-35 ATS since 1983. Take the points.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
1 Unit on Lions/Bears OVER 43
Chicago is 17-4 OVER in home lined games over the last 3 seasons with the average score totaling 48.5 points in these games. The Bears are also 15-3 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 22-9 OVER against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 8-1 OVER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the OVER.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -5½
The Titans have been just too good at home, and do you really think Aaron Rodgers is going to have more success than Peyton Manning did against this stellar defense. The Titans are just to good running and stopping the other team from running the ball. This game will be close but the Packers will fall off at the end just as the Colts did.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
CLEVELAND (-1.5) 20 Baltimore 17
Cleveland has rebounded from 3 losses to start the season by winning 3 of their last 4 games and the Browns have a pretty good chance to get to .500 today. Baltimore has been a better than average team through their first 7 games, averaging 4.7 yppl while allowing just 4.4 yppl to an average schedule, but the Ravens haven’t been as good in pass defense since losing starting CB Samari Rolle and FS Dawan Landry. Baltimore allowed just 183 total passing yards and 2.8 yards per pass play in the first two games of the season with their great secondary intact (including a week 3 win against the Browns), but the Ravens have allowed 6.6 yppp in 5 games without Rolle and Landry (to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team) so Browns’ Derek Anderson should have much more success throwing the ball in this game than he did in week 2. The Ravens are still great against the run, but my math model projects 217 net yards passing for the Browns and 288 total yards. That will probably be good enough to win this game against a bad Ravens’ attack that I rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average. Cleveland’s defense has played decently since allowing 488 yards at 7.9 yppl in their opening loss to Dallas (they’ve allowed 17 points or less in 4 consecutive games) and that unit yielded just 4.5 yppl in their 10-28 loss to the Ravens) and my math model favors the Browns by 2 ½ points in this game.
Arizona (-3.0) 26 ST. LOUIS 20
The Rams have improved under new coach Jim, Haslett, but they’ve still been out-gained 5.1 yards per play to 5.8 yppl during their 3 game spread win streak and have looked better than they are in those games because of a +7 in turnover margin. The Rams’ offense is still 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season and their defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average for the season, allowing 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. That unit is improved since Jason Craft began playing in the secondary in week 4 and the return of CB Fakhir Brown from a 2 game absence has also helped the last two weeks. Craft is 3rd on the team in tackles despite playing in just 4 games and Brown is an improvement over former starter Tye Hill, who has missed the last 3 games to injury. But, even with those improvements I still rate the Rams’ defense at 0.7 yppl worse than average and that unit should be exploited by an explosive Cardinals attack that has averaged 5.8 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average with WR Anquan Boldin back after a 2 game absence. Arizona’s defense has allowed 5.7 yppl but they’ve faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams and the Cardinals have been much better with former All-Pro S Adrian Wilson playing (he missed games and the Jets and Bills in which the secondary allowed 7.5 yards per pass play without him). Arizona is clearly the better team even with the Rams being improved, but St. Louis applies to a very good 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator that will keep me from making the Cardinals a Best Bet.
BUFFALO (-5.5) 21 NY Jets 17
The only thing separating these teams is the interceptions each teams quarterback has thrown and that will probably prove to be the difference in which team covers the spread. The Jets’ offense has averaged a solid 5.5 yards per play this season, but they’ve done so against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, so New York is actually 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense. Buffalo is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit, so the Bills have a solid 0.4 yppl advantage over New York’s offense in this game. Buffalo’s offense is also averaging 5.5 yppl this season, but the Bills have faced a schedule of weak offensive teams and I rate their attack at 0.2 yppl worse than average – the same rating as the Jets’ offense. New York’s defense, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average (just as the Bills are), so they too have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Buffalo’s offense. The difference between the teams has been turnovers, as the Jets are -6 in turnover margin with Brett Favre throwing 11 interceptions while the Bills are only -2 in turnovers with Trent Edwards having thrown just 3 picks. Farve isn’t likely to continue throwing interceptions at the rate he’s thrown them lately, but I still forecast the Bills to have a 0.5 turnover advantage in this game. If the turnover margin is even then the Jets probably will cover and if the turnover margin is in favor of the Bills then they probably cover. My math model favors Buffalo by 4 ½ points with the projected 0.5 turnover difference and I’ll lean slightly with the Jets plus the 5 ½ points.
Tampa Bay (-9.0) 24 KANSAS CITY 14
Kansas City beat me last week when they managed to lost by just 4 points against the Jets, but they were still out-gained 5.6 yards per play to 6.5 yppl despite rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen playing way over his head in completing 69.4% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass play. Kansas City still needed a +3 in turnover margin to come close to winning and it’s not likely that Thigpen will repeat last week’s good performance given he’s completed just 50% of his 126 passes this season while averaging a pathetic 4.3 yppp. Tampa Bay’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has allowed 176 yards and 173 yards in their last two games to below average offensive teams Seattle and Dallas (below average with Johnston at QB instead of Romo). The Chiefs are terrible defensively too (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so Tampa’s mediocre attack should perform well in this game and Jeff Garcia is not likely to bless the Chiefs with interceptions as Brett Favre did last week (Garcia has thrown just 6 interceptions on 484 pass attempts as Tampa Bay’s quarterback). I’d love to take the Bucs here, but Kansas City applies to a 46-13-1 ATS home dog angle and a 50-12-1 ATS home dog angle that combine to go 24-3 ATS when both apply to the same game. I can’t go against Kansas City given that they are in a such a good general situation, but I also don’t want to go against Tampa Bay given that they should be favored by about two touchdowns in this game and have a history of playing well after losses. Jon Gruden’s teams at Oakland and Tampa are now 28-12-2 ATS as a favorite or pick following a loss, including 2-0 ATS this season with wins of 24-9 over Atlanta and 27-3 over a good Carolina team. I suppose I would rather have Tampa Bay than Kansas City here, but it’s probably best to pass this one given the angles favoring the Chiefs.
TENNESSEE (-5.5) 23 Green Bay 16
The Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they should escape this game with that distinction intact. Tennessee relies on a strong defense (0.8 yards per play better than average) and a conservative offense to win games and their run-oriented attack (54% runs) matches up well with a Packers’ defense that has trouble defending the run (5.1 ypr allowed). Green Bay is good against the pass, but they are just average overall defensively while being just 0.1 yppl better than average on offense. My math model favors Tennessee by 5 ½ points, so the line is fair, but I like the match-up for the Titans and Tennessee applies to a 79-30-2 ATS statistical profile indicator. Tennessee also applies to a negative 18-41-1 ATS angle that plays against teams that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, but I’ll still lean slightly with the Titans.
MINNESOTA (-4.5) 26 Houston 21
Minnesota is a better than average team from the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.2 yards per play and allowing 5.0 yppl to a tougher than average schedule, but the Vikings are plagued by horrible special teams play that has resulted in a blocked punt and 3 punt return touchdowns against them. Houston is one of the better teams in the league at special teams once again this season and they’ll probably need a special teams impact play to win this game, as the Texans better than average offense (5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) is undermined by a horrible defense that’s allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. My math model projects the Vikings with a 393 yards to 301 yards edge in this game, but special teams could keep them from covering. Houston has won 3 straight games to get back into the playoff hunt and that could have easily been a 5 game win streak (they lost in OT to Jacksonville and blew a 20 point 4th quarter lead to Indy prior to winning 3 straight), so the Texans are finding ways to compete despite their bad defense. My math model favors Minnesota by 3 ½ points but Houston is just 3-13 ATS on the road following a victory, so I’ll call for a 5 point win in a game that is best left alone.
CHICAGO (-12.5) 25 Detroit 17
Detroit lost their first 4 games by an average of 20 points, but the Lions are not quite as dismal recently in losing their most recent 3 games by an average of just 6 points. The Lions are in a good position to cover again as a big dog against a team that they already lost to by a 7-34 count. It may be tough for the Bears to take this game seriously after wining so easily in Detroit and the Lions apply to a 227-112-9 ATS contrary indicator as well as a 93-42-3 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5 games or more losing streak. My math model favors Chicago by 16 points and I’m certainly not going to make Detroit a Best Bet with the negative line value, but the Lions are clearly the right side in this game based on the technical analysis.
DENVER (-3.5) 28 Miami 27
Denver shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against a decent team until their defense starts to play better. The Broncos are already 0-4 ATS as a favorite or more than 3 points this season and a defense that’s allowing 6.4 yards per play and 28 points per game will make it tough for the Broncos to distance themselves from a Dolphins’ squad with a good offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Denver will have to rely on an offense that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Jay Cutler should perform well against a Miami secondary that has given up 7.2 yards per pass play (to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppp). Overall, the Dolphins have been the better team this season and my math model favors the Miami by 1 ½ points. Denver applies to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 46-14-4 ATS subset of a 123-60-8 ATS statistical indicator, but the Broncos also apply to a negative 54-103-2 ATS angle that plays against bad defensive teams as favorites. I’ll lean with Miami plus the points and also with the Over.
Atlanta (-2.5) 22 OAKLAND 21
My math model favors Atlanta by 4 ½ points in this game, but the Raiders apply to a 244-154-12 ATS statistical profile indicator and a 49-21-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The Raiders are at their best when they can run the ball successfully and they should be able to do so against an Atlanta defense that’s given up 4.8 ypr to teams that would combine to average just 4.1 ypr against an average defensive team. I’ll lean with the Raiders plus the point based on the technical analysis.
NY GIANTS (-9.0) 28 Dallas 14
The Cowboys have been horrible offensively in two games with Brad Johnson at quarterback instead of Tony Romo, averaging just 4.3 yards per play and scoring a total of 27 points against the Rams and Bucs. I expect Johnson to be considerably better than he’s been the last two weeks, but my math model still favors the Giants by 14 points in this game and I don’t see New York feeling sorry for the Cowboys with a chance to add another game between them in the NFC East standings.
Philadelphia (-6.5) 25 SEATTLE 18
The Eagles are much better than their 4-3 record, as they’ve out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while out-scoring them 27.7 points to 19.6 points per game. Seattle’s offense has averaged less than 5.0 yppl in all but 1 game this season (St. Louis being the exception) and that pathetic attack has averaged only 4.6 yppl for the season while the defense has given up 5.6 yppl. Seneca Wallace has done a better job of leading the Seahawks the last two weeks, but my math model still favors Philly by 11 ½ points even after factoring that in. I can’t take the Eagles because Seattle applies to a 96-40-3 ATS momentum situation based on last week’s win in San Francisco and a 199-119-6 ATS statistical indicator also applies to Seattle. I’ll pass.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.0) 23 New England 17
Both of these teams are overrated, but New England has been especially sub-par this season in averaging 5.1 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl despite playing a very easy schedule of teams. The Colts, meanwhile, have averaged 5.3 yppl and allowed 5.1 yppl while playing a tougher than average schedule and my math model favors Indy by 7 points in this game. There is a minor situation that favors the Patriots in this game, so I’ll call for a 6 point win.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Under 41
The Atlanta Falcons head west to face the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. Both teams enter off of SU road losses in Week Eight and both are searching for answers on both sides of the ball.
The Raiders ground game once the team’s strength has not lived up to preseason expectations. With rookie RB Darren McFadden out nursing the all too familiar turf toe last week they only managed 47 yards on 19 carries.
The Raiders definitely need their rushing attack to be successful as they do not want to put the game into the hands of QB JaMarcus Russell. Our sources out of the Raiders camp still tell us he is not ready to run an NFL offense and his play certainly supports their evaluation.
The Falcons have struggled on the road this season giving up 24, 24, 24 and 27 points in their four road contests. We also know that the Falcons are a miserable 1-6 both SU and ATS on the road dating back to last season averaging only 15 points per game in the process.
Projections for both offenses in this contest have this game falling well below the posted total. The total is currently 41 and our NFL Model has a total point’s range of 34 to 37 points which cashes the ticket for us on Sunday.
We also have strong technical support for our selection in team angles and league wide systems. The Falcons are 12-32 Under on the road. The Falcons are 0-8 Under within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with fewer wins. The Falcons are 1-10 Under on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Falcons are 0-7 Under as a road favorite versus a non-divisional opponent. The Falcons are 0-7 Under within 3 of pick when their ATS margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Raiders are 4-21 Under within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Raiders are 9-25 Under versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Raiders are 4-14 Under as a dog after playing as a TD+ dog. The Raiders are 8-20-1 Under as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. The Raiders are 0-9 Under within 3 of pick after a road game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time.
The League is 6-19 Under on the road when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road as a TD+ dog. The League is 14-23-2 Under at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent.
With both offenses having trouble putting points on the board and strong technical and situational support for the Under we will make this our 2* NFL Free Total Play of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Atlanta / Oakland UNDER 41
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore Ravens ML
Well many have jumped back on the bandwagon for the Browns. Not me I still believe this team can't consistently stop people on defense and the offense still will give up too many TO's. On the other hand I love the up and coming BAL team. In fact still think they have very good chance to make playoffs. Everybody knows about BAL defense and how stingy they are but lets give credit to there improving offense. They have added Troy Smith package into there game plan and have had much success with it. Look for him to get even more snaps and special plays this week. Take the Ravens in an easy win. SCORE BAL 27 - CLE 16
Re: Sunday Service Plays
DAL +9.5 vs NYG
Contrarians Play here. The entire universe on the Giants here. I look for reasons weekly to the underdogs. Dallas does not provide many items to go with here with Romo out and Whitten doubtful, but I like Dallas to cover the number here based on the fact revenge is a HUGE factor in the NFL. New York knocked them out of the playoffs last year in Dallas, and they have not forgot that. The Giants are off a brutal game at Pittsburgh last week that was hard hitting and took its toll on them. They showed some weakness' in that game I think Dallas can exploit with their team speed.
Dallas played a good Tampa Bay team last week and was held to 13 points at home, but I do not think the Giants defense is as good as Tampa's, who are underrated. Never underestimate this Dallas team, they have talent at skill positions all over the place and I am not sold on the Giants being as good as advertised. The Browns exposed them on Monday Night a few weeks back and Dallas has the players to use that gameplan. I expect RB Barber to have a good game and QB Johnson to use allot of underneath pass routes to move the chains against zone coverage.
In the last 3 weeks the Giants have averaged 21 ppg on offense and yet allowed 22 ppg on defense! That is a telling stat. I use recent trends and stats all the time in the NFL, not season averages. If Dallas holds them under 24 points here, it is an easy cover, because Dallas will score points in this game, and I expect a lot of Terrell Owens who has been somewhat silent in recent weeks in terms of receptions, and with WR Williams getting a lot of snaps, that could be a potent angle that Jason Garrett will call this weekend. A clash of titans here and it should be a great game and tighter than you expect, Dallas will not go quietly into the night here
NY Giants 24 Dallas 21..Grab the Points.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3
The Cardinals are coming off another disappointing road loss last weekend as they blew a 14-point lead in Carolina. They are now 1-3 on the road for the season but those three setbacks all share one huge thing in common. They all took place on the east coast. This game is a time zone away which is nothing and it is about time for Arizona to show what it can actually do on the road. This game is in the Edward Jones Dome and the player most comfortable in this venue plays on the other team, quarterback Kurt Warner.
After being left for dead and firing its head coach, St. Louis has been playing very well for interim head coach Jim Haslett but the solid run will soon come to an end here. The Rams won two straight games against Washington and Dallas despite getting outgained in both contests. They also played well in New England last Sunday but now the matchup is not in their favor. This was the case last season when Arizona won both meetings and outgained St. Louis both times.
Arizona is at full strength in the passing game and that spells trouble for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2nd in passing offense, averaging 287.7 ypg which is mostly all Warner’s doing. Warner has Anquan Bolden back at receiver and him along with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston form one of the top receiving trios in the NFL. They will go up against the Rams defense that is 31st in the league against the pass. When Matt Cassel and Brad Johnson combined for over 500 yards passing, you know the defense is bad.
The Rams get Stephen Jackson back which is a big plus however, it may not be enough. Arizona has a solid rushing defense as it is allowing just 96.4 ypg on 4.0 ypc and those are about the exact averages that the Rams put up on offense. The passing game is getting more consistent with Marc Bulger back at quarterback and he faces a rough Arizona secondary. However, the Cardinals have been outpassed only twice this season and their 19 sacks are 6th in the league. The Rams have been sacked 24 times, tied for 5th most.
Arizona falls into a great situation to get the job done here. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) since 1983 including a 10-1 ATS mark over the last five seasons. The Rams have struggled against good passing teams as they are 1-6 ATS over the last three years against teams averaging 7.0 ypa or greater. Arizona picks up its second road win of the season here. 3* Arizona Cardinals
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Dallas at New York Giants
Pick: Dallas +9
The Cowboys face has changed behind center, as Tony Romo remains sidlined with a broken finger. Since his injury, under Brad Johnson the Cowboys have gone from unstoppable to mediocre in a hurry. Johnson took his first snaps from center this year vs. the Rams, and the rust was evident. But last week he did a great job managing the game, and the Cowboys finished with no turnovers, winning the game. These teams played wide open football during the regular season last year and it resulted in two Cowboys wins. The Giants went to school and played a different game in the playoffs throwing the ball just 18 times in their playoff win. The roles have reversed now, and Dallas will employ the same ball control tactics, and allow their defense to keep them close here. After a close opening week win vs. Washington, the Giants put up 41, 26 and 44 points in their next three games. But who did that come against? St. Louis, Cincinnati and Seattle! So, while the general public gives New York a ton of credit, I don't. Their next game came against the lowly Cleveland Browns and New York lost outright as a 7.5 point favorite. They have gone on to win two straight but again one of those wins came against another bad team in San Fancisco. While the New York's 6-1 record looks impressive, the fact remains that it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL. The Giants are very good, but in my opinion, somewhat overrated. Their offense that was cranking earlier, has seen a huge dropoff, producing just 21.3 ppg the last three games. This is a lot of points for a division rivalry game, especially when Dallas needs this one in a big way. And, Dallas should be more motivated here. They are getting very little respect right now and would love nothing more than to make a statement here before their bye, that they can win a big game without Romo. And this Dallas team was destined for the Super Bowl last year, only to have New York come into their house and knock them out. You can bet the 'Boys want this one bad, and they need it more than does New York. In recent weeks, the Dallas bandwagon has been abondoned as everyone jumped ship to New York's. What I see is a divisional underdog of nearly double-digits, with motivation, facing a team that has cruised over patsies so far. I expect the Cowboys to find a way to stay close here.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams
The line in this game looks too good to be true. The first-place Arizona Cardinals only have to give a field goal to the lowly Rams? Our readers know that this type of "trap" game has us smelling value on the other side! With the Public overwhelmingly on Arizona, this gives us added "value" on the Rams!
Three out of four bets are landing on Arizona -- so we will "bet against the public" and take St. Louis as a live home dog. Arizona is a first-place team, but is just 4-3 in the relatively weak NFC West Division. We like taking dogs in tough divisional games -- that often end up being closer than expected. St. Louis started the season poorly -- but has been playing a lot better, lately. On the other hand, Arizona started the season 2-0 -- but is just 2-3 in their last five. Take the Rams plus the points.
St Louis Rams +3
Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks
This is one of those "take your man pills" games. Time to find out if you really believe in the "betting against the Public." Seattle is coming off a big win. We're looking for them to continue this positive momentum at home against Philly.
Meanwhile, the Public is overwhelmingly on Philly at a rate we rarely see (almost 90% on Philly!). They are betting this game like they know the final score. The bookmakers are begging the Public to take Philly. Some very sharp sportsbooks are offering the Eagles -6.5. SportsInsights' betting statistics indicate that there is a lot of Sharp money on Seattle. Seattle +7 is widely available -- and we're hoping Public money will push the this line to 7.5 by game time.
Seattle Seahawks +7
New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts
What a difference a year makes. Last year, this was one of the biggest games of the regular season. This year, both teams might not even make the playoffs...but that's the beauty of the NFL. The Public is leaning towards the Colts in this game.
Both teams have shown glimpses of the powerhouses that they can be -- but have lacked consistency this season. Imagine the Patriots getting points, let alone almost a whole touchdown! We're taking the points and looking for NE offense to finally start playing.
New England +6
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Houston (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at Minnesota (3-4, 2-5 ATS)
The Texans gun for their fourth straight victory when they travel to the Metrodome for a non-conference clash with the Vikings.
Houston pounded Cincinnati 35-6 last week as a nine-point home chalk, getting their third consecutive SU win while halting a three-game ATS slide. QB Matt Schaub (24 of 28, 280 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was nearly perfect as the Texans had no turnovers, forced three and finished with a more than 10-minute edge in time of possession. Houston also outgained Cincy 384-253.
Minnesota, which had its bye last week, lost to Chicago in a 48-41 shootout as a three-point road underdog two weeks ago, giving the SU winner a 19-2-2 ATS mark in the Vikes’ last 23 games dating to the 2007 season opener (6-1 ATS this season). Minnesota outgained the Bears 439-327 and had a 10-minute time-of-possession edge, but had five turnovers – including four Gus Frerotte INTs – and the Bears had a fumble-return TD and recovered a muffed punt for a score.
These franchises have met only once, with Minnesota taking a 34-28 overtime win in 2004 laying nine points on the road.
The Texans carry several negative pointspread streaks, including 2-5 overall, 3-8 in roadies against the NFC, 1-5 overall on the road and 1-6 on artificial turf. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following the bye, but otherwise they’re on ATS skids of 2-8 overall, 0-4 against losing teams, 1-4 at the dome and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The over for Houston is on runs of 8-1 overall (6-1 this season) and 5-0 on the road, and the over for Minnesota is on tears of 10-1-1 following the bye, 12-3-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-2-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jacksonville (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-8, 2-6 ATS)
The hapless Bengals, still seeking their first win, welcome the underachieving Jaguars to Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati got pelted 35-6 at Houston as a nine-point pup for its third straight double-digit loss and its third straight non-cover. In fact, the Bengals’ margin of defeat has increased in each of the last six games. Cincy remains without QB Carson Palmer (elbow), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (20 of 32, 155 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 lost fumble) was simply overwhelmed by the Texans. The Bengals finished with just 253 total yards, while allowing 384.
Jacksonville was stunned by Cleveland 23-17 as a seven-point home chalk for its third ATS setback in the last four games. The Jags dominated statistically, with a 380-327 yardage edge and 10 minutes more in time of possession, but special teams sealed their fate, as they had a field goal blocked and fumbled a fourth-quarter kickoff, leading to the Browns’ go-ahead field goal.
Jacksonville is on a 4-0 SU run (3-0-1 ATS) against Cincinnati, but these two haven’t faced each other since 2005, when the Jags took a 23-20 home win laying three points. Jacksonville is on ATS runs in this rivalry of 7-2-1 overall and 4-1 in Cincy, and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes.
The Bengals are on ATS downfalls of 1-4 overall, 9-20-1 at home (0-3 this year), 0-6 against the AFC, 1-6 against losing teams and 4-8 as a non-division home ‘dog. The Jaguars are in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall and 4-9 as a road chalk, but they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the highway and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2-1 in the last eight games between these two in Cincinnati, and the over for Jacksonville is on tears of 13-4-2 overall, 5-1 against losing teams and 8-2-1 on the road. However, for Cincinnati, the under is on stretches of 10-4 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Tampa Bay (5-3 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (1-6, 3-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who had a two-game winning streak snapped last week, look to bounce back at Arrowhead Stadium in a non-conference contest against the struggling Chiefs.
Tampa Bay is coming off a 13-9 loss at Dallas, failing to cash as a one-point road pup for its second consecutive ATS setback after five straight spread-covers. QB Jeff Garcia chucked the ball 43 times but really didn’t get much bang for his buck, completing 27 passes for just 227 yards with no TDs or INTs. The Bucs gained just 262 total yards and committed the game’s only turnover, losing despite holding the Cowboys to 172 total yards.
Kansas City put up a fight last Sunday but still fell short in a 28-24 loss to the New York Jets, though it did cash as a heavy 14-point road ‘dog, halting a two-game ATS hiccup. Tyler Thigpen (25 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs), the latest entrant in the Chiefs’ musical QBs contest, had a solid day, and K.C. won the turnover battle 3-0 – all Brett Favre INTs – but the Chiefs let Favre get his second TD pass of the day with just over a minute remaining to decide the game.
These teams have met just twice in the past 10 years, with Tampa going 2-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Bucs earned a 34-31 home win as a three-point underdog in 2004.
The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a non-division road favorite, but they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU setback. Meanwhile, despite cashing last week, the Chiefs are on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 2-8-1 at home, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-9 on grass.
The under is on a 4-0 run overall for Tampa Bay, but the total has cleared the posted price in six of the Bucs’ last eight road games, and the over for Kansas City is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 7-2 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Baltimore (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Cleveland (3-4, 5-2 ATS)
The Ravens will go after their third straight victory when they head to Ohio for an AFC North battle with the Browns.
Baltimore rolled over Oakland 29-10 laying nine points for its second consecutive win and cover, giving the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Ravens’ last 18 contests (6-1 ATS this year). Rookie QB Joe Flacco (12 of 24, 140 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) still isn’t being asked to do much, though he did have a 43-yard reception on a trick play to help set up a field goal. Baltimore rushed for 192 yards and dominated on defense, allowing just 234 total yards, no first-half points and recording a safety.
Cleveland pulled off a 23-17 upset at Jacksonville catching seven points, moving to 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in its last four games. QB Derek Anderson (14 of 27, 246 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was serviceable enough, and the Browns made up for a 10-minute deficit in time of possession by blocking a field goal and recovering a fumbled kickoff – both in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland is on a 5-1 ATS run (3-3 SU) in this rivalry, but in Week 3 this season, Baltimore scored a 28-10 home win giving one point. The host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups, with the Browns cashing in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 4-0 ATS in their last four division tilts, but they’re still on pointspread slides of 8-22 overall on the highway and 5-11 in division road games. The Browns, meanwhile, sport a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 17-5 overall, 9-1 at home, 14-3 against winning teams and 6-2 inside the division.
The over for Baltimore is on streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-2-1 in division play and 5-2 in roadies, but the under for Cleveland is on runs of 11-2 overall, 7-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
N.Y. Jets (4-3, 3-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The Bills, who have dropped two of three after a 5-0 start, will try to get back on track at Ralph Wilson Stadium in a crucial AFC East battle against the Jets.
Buffalo tumbled to Miami 25-16 as a one-point road ‘dog, giving the SU winner a 6-1 ATS mark for the Bills this season. QB Trent Edwards (21 of 35, 227 yards, 0 TDs) had a miserable fourth quarter, throwing an INT, losing a fumble, then getting sacked for a safety on three consecutive drives. Buffalo added another turnover on its final drive, finishing with a 4-1 deficit in that category in an otherwise evenly played game.
New York barely got past Kansas City 28-24, but never threatened to cash as a healthy 14-point chalk for its second straight ATS defeat, marking the first time the SU winner hasn’t covered in the Jets’ seven games this year. QB Brett Favre (28 of 40, 290 yards, 2 TDs) threw three INTs and now has a league-worst 11 picks, but he hooked up with Laveranues Coles late on the game-winning TD pass. The Jets D failed to force a turnover.
Buffalo is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series – all as an underdog – including a 17-14 home win last year as a 3½-point pup. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes (4-1 ATS in Buffalo), but the underdog has pulled off five straight upset victories in this rivalry.
The Bills are on ATS streaks of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 14-4 on turf, 12-4 at home and 7-2 as a division home chalk. The Jets have cashed in six consecutive games as a divisional road underdog, but they are mired in ATS funks of 1-4 against the AFC, 2-7 after a SU win and 2-6 on turf.
The under is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 overall and is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five on the road, but the over for Buffalo is on runs of 7-1 on turf and 6-1 at home, and in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 6-2 in Buffalo.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
Arizona (4-3 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two NFC West rivals that have performed well lately at the betting window get together when the Cardinals travel to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the Rams.
Arizona had Carolina on the ropes last week, taking a 17-3 lead early in the third quarter before getting outscored 24-6 the rest of the way in a 27-23 setback. However, the Cards cashed as a five-point pup cashed for its third straight spread-cover. The SU winner is still 14-2 ATS in Arizona’s last 16 contests (6-1 ATS this year). QB Kurt Warner (35 of 49, 381 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day as Arizona abandoned the run, but the Cardinals’ two turnovers – a fumble and an INT, both in the second half – were ultimately converted into 10 Carolina points.
St. Louis gave New England all it could handle a week ago before losing 23-16, but as a nine-point pup, the Rams covered for the third consecutive week. Prior to last week’s result, the SU winner had been 9-0 ATS in St. Louis’ previous nine outings. QB Marc Bulger (18 of 34, 304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a solid game, but his lone INT ended the Rams’ potential game-tying drive in the fourth quarter.
Arizona has won three in a row in this NFC West rivalry (2-1 ATS), though St. Louis covered at home in a 34-31 loss as a 3½-point pup last year. The Redbirds are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to St. Louis, but the underdog is on an 8-1 ATS roll in the last nine clashes.
The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the NFC, 7-3 inside the division and 11-4 after a SU loss. Meanwhile, despite their current 3-0 ATS streak, the Rams are on pointspread dips of 3-7 overall, 2-8 in home division contests, 1-4 overall at the dome, 3-10 against winning teams and 19-40-1 after a SU loss.
In this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 in St. Louis. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on tears of 36-17 overall, 39-15 on the highway and 4-0 on turf, and for St. Louis, the over is on stretches of 7-3 overall and 6-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Chicago (4-3, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Bears, who had their bye last week, should be well-rested for arguably the league’s worst team when the Lions roll into Soldier Field.
Chicago fended off Minnesota in a 48-41 shootout two weeks ago as a three-point favorite, giving the SU winner a 19-1-1 ATS mark in the Bears’ last 21 games. Chicago was dominated in total yards, allowing 439 while gaining 327, and had a 10-minute time-of-possession deficit, but QB Kyle Orton (21 of 32, 283 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong outing. The Bears also forced a whopping five turnovers (4 INTs) and scored off a blocked punt and a botched Vikings punt return.
Detroit lost to Washington 25-17 last week, coming up just short as a seven-point home underdog to halt a two-game ATS surge. The Lions, who have lost eight straight and 14 of 15 going back to last year (3-12 ATS), actually led 10-6 at halftime, then got outscored 19-7 in the second half, allowing two big plays from Santana Moss – a 50-yard TD catch and an 80-yard punt return for a TD. QB Dan Orlovsky (21 of 25, 233 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) helped Detroit avoid any turnovers, but the Lions were outgained by a whopping 439-274 margin and lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a quarter.
Chicago pounded Detroit 34-7 four weeks ago as a 3½-point road chalk, ending a 3-0 ATS run by the Lions in this NFC North rivalry. However, the underdog is still 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
The Bears are on a 2-7 ATS plunge coming off the bye, but they carry several positive ATS trends, including 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 at Soldier Field, 4-0 inside the division and 7-3 in home division games. Conversely, in addition to their ongoing 3-12 ATS freefall, the Lions are on spread slumps of 0-4 against winning teams, 4-10-1 against division foes, 6-14 on the road and 3-9 after a SU loss.
The over for Detroit is on runs of 9-3-1 overall, 4-1 on grass and 6-2 on the highway, and for the Bears, the over is on streaks of 18-5 at home, 5-1 on grass and 25-9-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
Green Bay (4-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (7-0 SU and ATS)
The scorching-hot Titans, who remain the NFL’s lone unbeaten squad, will try to keep their perfect SU and ATS records intact when they welcome the Packers to LP Field for a non-conference affair.
Tennessee got off to a slow start Monday night against Indianapolis, then rolled up 25 second-half points to breeze to a 31-21 win and cover as a four-point home chalk. The SU winner is now 15-1-1 ATS in the Titans’ last 17 outings. Against Indy, QB Kerry Collins (24 of 37, 193 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was far from spectacular, but he led an offense that committed no turnovers. The defense, meanwhile, picked off Peyton Manning twice and stifled Indy on consecutive fourth-down attempts in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay, which had its bye last week, is also coming off a win over Indianapolis, posting a 34-14 rout as a one-point home pup two weeks ago for its second straight win and cover. QB Aaron Rodgers (21 of 28, 186 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady, and the Packers defense picked off Manning twice – with Aaron Rouse returning the second one 99 yards for a TD late in the game.
The SU winner is 15-1-1 ATS in Tennessee’s last 17 games overall and 24-0-1 in Green Bay’s last 25 contests dating to the 2007 season-opener.
These teams have met in each of the past four preseasons, but they haven’t had a regular-season tilt since 2004, when Tennessee rumbled to a 48-27 road win catching 3½ points. In this past preseason finale for both squads, the Titans won 23-21 in Green Bay, but the Packers cashed as a 6½-point home pup.
Along with their season-long 7-0 ATS run, the Titans are on several more pointspread streaks, including 15-4 hosting an NFC team, 7-0 after a SU win and 4-0 at LP Field. The Packers also sport a pack of positive ATS trends, including 20-8-1 overall, 11-3-1 on the highway, 6-3 against AFC foes and 13-5 after a SU win.
The over for Tennessee is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 5-2-1 at home, but the under is 6-1-1 in the Titans’ last nine against winning teams. Green Bay is on “over” streaks of 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams and 37-18-2 in road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Miami (3-4, 4-3 ATS) at Denver (4-3, 1-5-1 ATS)
The Broncos, who had a bye last week but whose defense has seemingly been on hiatus all season, return to action at Invesco Field at Mile High in a matchup with the Dolphins.
Denver got blasted 41-7 two Mondays ago at New England as a three-point pup for its fifth straight non-cover. The Broncos had four first-half turnovers that led to a 20-0 halftime deficit, and they finished with five turnovers – including two INTs from QB Jay Cutler – while forcing none. Cutler (17 of 26, 168 yards, 1 TD) had a poor showing, and the porous Denver defense gave up a whopping 257 rushing yards, including 138 to Sam Morris in just the first half.
Miami topped Buffalo 25-16 as a one-point home chalk last week, halting a two-game SU skid while covering for the fourth time in the past five games. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 30, 314 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a clean, efficient game, and the Dolphins won the turnover battle 4-1. In fact, on three straight Bills possessions in the fourth quarter, Miami’s defense got an INT, recovered a fumble and forced a safety. The Dolphins, who scored the game’s final 18 points, capped things with a fumble recovery on Buffalo’s final drive.
Miami is on a 5-0 ATS run (4-1 SU) against Denver, though these two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Fish rolled 34-10 as a six-point home pup. In fact, Miami has been the underdog in four of the last five outings.
The Broncos are 6-0 ATS the last six years when coming off a bye, but the pointspread trends spiral downward in a hurry from there, including a dismal 7-23-1 overall, 4-13-1 at Mile High, 2-12 as a home chalk and 5-16-1 against AFC foes. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a spread-cover, but they are on positive spread streaks of 6-1-1 in November, 5-1 against winning teams and 18-9-1 as a non-division ‘dog.
The over for Denver is on tears of 20-6-2 overall, 10-2-2 after a SU loss, 9-2 against losing teams and 13-3-1 at home, and the total has gone high on four of Miami’s last five road trips.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Atlanta (4-3 SU and ATS) at Oakland (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
The Falcons, who had their two-game winning streak snapped last week, aim to get their surprising season back on track with a trip to McAfee Coliseum to face the Raiders.
Atlanta lost to Philadelphia 27-14 as a 9½-point road ‘dog. The Falcons took a 7-0 lead early in the second quarter, but gave up 10 points in the last 2:30 before halftime and didn’t score again until the fourth quarter. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (23 of 44, 277 yards, 2 TDs) was forced to pass a lot with Atlanta playing from behind, and he paid by getting picked off twice – including once in the end zone. The Facons also let Eagles RB Brian Westbrook go off for 167 yards and two TDs on 22 carries.
Oakland followed up a 16-13 overtime home win over the Jets with last week’s 29-10 defeat at Baltimore, failing to cover as a nine-point road underdog. QB JaMarcus Russell (15 of 33, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had yet another uninspired outing, and the Raiders couldn’t run the ball, finishing with just 47 rushing yards while allowing 192. For the game, Oakland got outgained 375-234.
The SU winner is 16-1 ATS in Baltimore’s last 17 games (7-0 this year) and 14-2 in Oakland’s last 16 (6-1 this year).
These clubs have met just twice this decade, with each winning and cashing at home. In the most recent battle in 2004, Atlanta coasted 35-10 giving 7½ points.
The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 against the AFC on the road, 4-0 after a SU loss and 11-5 on grass. The Raiders are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five against NFC foes, and they are on further ATS slides of 9-19 overall, 9-24 at home, 17-37-1 after a non-cover and 20-43-1 after a SU loss.
The under is 19-7 in Atlanta’s last 26 road games. On the flip side, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 games overall for both teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Dallas (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (6-1, 5-2 ATS)
A classic NFC East confrontation is on tap when the Cowboys, still without starting quarterback Tony Romo, travel to East Rutherford, N.J., to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in the first meeting of the season between these rivals.
Dallas held off Tampa Bay 13-9 in a defensive struggle last week to get the cash as a one-point home chalk, ending a two-game SU skid and a four-game ATS plunge. Aging backup QB Brad Johnson (19 of 33, 122 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a weak effort, and the Cowboys mustered just 172 total yards, but they didn’t turn the ball over and were able to stop Tampa’s last-minute drive for a potential game-winning score.
New York dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 getting three points on the road for its second consecutive win and cover, pushing the SU winner to 17-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 19 outings (6-1 ATS this season). In a defensive battle – neither team cracked 300 total yards – but Eli Manning (19 of 32, 199 yards, 1 TD) was turnover-free, while the Giants picked off Ben Roethlisberger four times.
New York stunned Dallas 21-17 as a seven-point road ‘dog in a divisional playoff game last January, ending a 3-0 SU run (2-0-1 ATS) by the Cowboys in this rivalry. That included a pair of regular-season wins and covers by the Cowboys in 2007 (45-35 at home, 31-20 in New York). The Giants are 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes (playoffs included).
The Cowboys are on several ATS slides, including 3-9 overall, 2-5 on the highway 0-6 in division play (0-2 this year), 2-6 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Giants sport a bevy of positive ATS trends, including 19-7 overall, 7-0 versus winning teams, 8-3 in home division contests and 10-4-1 inside the division.
For Dallas, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 15-6-2 on the road, 9-4-3 against NFC East foes and 15-7-1 against winning teams. The over for New York is 7-3 in its last 10 home starts, and in this rivalry, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings at Giants Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
Philadelphia (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Seattle (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
The Eagles will try to run their winning streak to three when they make the cross-country trek to Qwest Field to face the Seahawks.
Philadelphia beat Atlanta 27-14 as a 9½-point home chalk, winning and cashing for the second straight week. QB Donovan McNabb (19 of 34, 253 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was mediocre, losing a fumble for Philly’s lone turnover, but RB Brian Westbrook returned from an injury and rushed for 167 yards and two TDs, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers.
Seattle drilled San Francisco 34-13 as a five-point road pup last Sunday, ending a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS). The Seahawks were outgained 388-261 and had an eight-minute time-of-possession deficit, but backuup QB Seneca Wallace (15 of 25, 222 yards, 2 TDs), continuing to sub for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, led a turnover-free offense, and Seattle converted two 49ers turnovers into 10 points, including a 75-yard INT return for a score.
The SU winner is 24-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 25 games dating to last season (6-1 ATS this year) and the winner has cashed in six of Philly’s seven contests in 2008.
Seattle has won and covered in the last two meetings between these teams, following a 2-0 SU and ATS run by Philadelphia, and the road team has cashed in the last five head-to-head clashes since 1998. Last December in Philadelphia, the Seahawks won 28-24 getting three points, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the favorite in this series.
The Eagles sport ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 on the highway, 6-2 against the NFC and 7-3 outside the NFC East. On the flip side, the Seahawks are in ATS slumps of 3-6 as a non-division home pup, 0-5 after a SU win and 1-5 after a spread-cover, but they’ve cashed in seven of their last nine home starts.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 on the road and 4-1 on field turf, and the over for Seattle is on tears of 8-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 on field turf, 7-1-1 against NFC foes and 5-1-1 at home. Lastly, the last three meetings between these squads have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (3-4 SU and ATS)
The Colts, who are in the surprising role of being desperate for a win at the season’s midway point, gear up for a prime-time battle with the archrival Patriots at Lucas Oil Field.
Indianapolis tumbled at Tennessee 31-21 last Monday night as a four-point road ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS defeat. The SU winner has now taken the cash in each of the Colts’ last 10 games. QB Peyton Manning (26 of 41, 223 yards, 2 TDs) threw two INTs and now has nine picks against just 10 TDs so far this season. The Colts took a 14-6 lead early in the third quarter, but they then failed on fourth-down attempts on two consecutive drives, helping the Titans go on a 25-0 scoring run to put the game out of reach.
New England held off St. Louis 23-16 but failed to cover as a nine-point chalk, continuing the Pats’ season-long trend of alternating ATS wins and losses. QB Matt Cassel (21 of 33, 267 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was a bit unsteady but led New England to 10 fourth-quarter points. The Patriots forced just one turnover, but it came at a critical time as Deltha O’Neal picked off Marc Bulger with the Rams driving late in the fourth quarter.
These squads, perhaps the top two teams in the league this decade, have had a bundle of critical matchups the past few years. Indianapolis is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, though New England got the SU win last year in a 24-20 decision as a five-point road chalk. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles in Indy, and the underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 series clashes (playoffs included).
The Colts are on ATS slides of 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 at home, 2-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 on turf. The Patriots are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 roadies, but they are on pointspread downturns of 3-10 overall, 0-6 against losing teams, 1-9 after a SU win and 2-7 against AFC opponents.
The over is on runs of 4-1 for Indy overall, 10-5 for New England on the road, 6-2 for the Colts after a non-cover and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Indianapolis. However, New England enters this contest on a 9-3-2 “under” tear overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Lenny Del Genio
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Not sure why the Browns are only being asked to lay this short number, but we'll take it as they have played their two best games over the last three weeks in beating the Giants and Jaguars. They also hung tough with the Redskins. Cleveland has covered four straight and with last week's outright win moved to an incredible 11-0 ATS if their last two game was on the road. Baltimore's resume has been falsely boosted with BB wins over bad teams.
Play on: Cleveland
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Look for Kurt Warner to torch his former team once again. Arizona is 3-0 SU/ATS their last three visits to St. Louis, where the Rams have been just plain dreadful against everybody, going 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS last 17 home games. They are an even worse 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS in home division games and without Steven Jackson (possibly) for a 2nd game the offense has no chance to compete with the Cardinals firepower. Arizona wins big on Sunday.
Play on: Arizona
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Denver Broncos -3.0
The Miami Dolphins travel to the mile high city to play a well rested Denver Broncos team off a bye week. The Fins are off a hard fought win against division rival Buffalo last Sunday, and will be in an emotional and physical let down situation. The Broncos after starting their season with 3 straight wins, have now lost 3 of their L/4, and be primed to bounce back. HC Mike Shanahan has a history of being able to have his teams focused off rest, as is evident by a 15-3 SU ATS record , which includes a very impressive 12-1 SU/ATS mark against non divisional opposition.What I am betting will happen.... Denver goes back to a more balanced ground and aerial attack, as they take advantage of a Dolphins defense, that is starting to look a lot slower and beat up. Look for the Broncos offense to launch promising rookie RB Ryan Torain or a group by committee ,head first at the opposition, which will result in some big gains and scores. As the game progresses Denver QB Jay Cutler, will use play action to rip apart a secondary, that despite of their recent media accolades, is extremely vulnerable. I also expect that Denvers D, during the bye week has also found way to shore up and play tough. It must be noted QB (Chad Pennington) , has shown inconsistencies this season. Remember when the Dolphin pivot, was pulled in the 31-10 loss vs Arizona. I do, and think before this ones over, HC Sporano will be tempted to pull out the hook again. Projected score: Denver 27 Miami 19
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Under 41
If the Cowboys are to win or even stay close on Sunday, They’ll need the defense to come up with another stellar effort, Brad Johnson, not Tony Romo will be under center and that means another VERY conservative game plan from the Cowboys. Johnson did a serviceable job last week and played it close to the vest. But he’s also been sacked six times in the last two games and against a New York defense that leads the league with 26 sacks, his lack of mobility will be a major concern. Cowboys’ coach Wade Phillips said Johnson will start, but third-stringer Brooks Bollinger got some work with the first team Wednesday. While Johnson has been battered and bruised the past two weeks, it’s been just the opposite for Giants QB Eli Manning. He’s enjoyed ample time in the pocket and his numbers show it. He's only been sacked twice in his last five games and wasn't dropped once in last Sunday's 21-14 win at Pittsburgh against the Steelers who’ve been known to blitz a time ort two. Mannings confidence has grown by leaps and bounds and dare I say, he’s the best Manning QB in the league right. E-Mann is completing over 61 % of his passes and after throwing 17 picks last year, he’s thrown just four interceptions thru the Giants first seven games.
With Dallas keeping to a very conservative play book and with key injuries on both sides, this one should stay under the number. A score of 21-17 sounds about right.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
We are not normally in the habit of laying more than a touchdown on the road, especially with a team that we generally feel is overrated like the Jacksonville Jaguars, but we feel this is a great situation to do so vs. the winless Cincinnati Bengals.
After a great season last year, the Jaguars may be the biggest disappointment in the league to this point at just 3-4. The offense has been inconsistent, and even the defense is allowing more points (21.6 per game) than usual.
Quarterback David Garrard has lost the magic after a breakthrough year in 2007, throwing just six touchdown passes while averaging a very low 6.85 yard per pass attempt and owning a very modest 86.6 passer rating. The running game is averaging a respectable 116.0 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush, but those numbers are also way down from last season.
So why are we showing the love for the Jaguars this week? Well, this is simply a must game for Jacksonville, as their playoff chances would be totally shot of they fall to 3-5, so they should be focused from start to finish. Plus, is their a better team they can be facing when they need to step up than the Bengals?
Cincinnati is 0-8, and ever since shutting down Carson Palmer for the season, the Bengals have gotten progressively worse, first losing to the New York Jets by 12 points, then to the Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 and then to the Houston Texans by 29 last week. Now we realize that winless teams have historically been a great bet at this point of the season, but most of those games have not been vs. desperate teams trying to save their season.
Look for the Jaguars to establish Taylor and James-Drew on the ground vs. a soft Cincinnati front, setting thing up for Garrard to have some success in the air and leading to a much needed romp.
Pick: Jaguars -7.5
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