NBA News and Notes Tuesday October 28

NBA News and Notes Tuesday October 28

Cleveland (52-43, 47-48 ATS) at Boston (82-26, 65-40-3 ATS)

The Celtics begin defense of their NBA championship when they tip off the 2008-09 season at home against LeBron James and the Cavaliers in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

Boston added superstars Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to its roster prior to last season, and the duo combined with Paul Pierce to post the NBA’s best regular-season record. The Celtics were tested in three rounds of the Eastern Conference playoffs, but rolled through the Lakers in six games to capture their 17th NBA title. Doc Rivers’ squad closed out the playoffs on a 7-0 ATS run, cashing in all six games of the NBA Finals.

Cleveland took the Celtics to seven games in the second round of last year’s playoffs, with the home team winning every contest. The Cavs cashed in six of the seven games against Boston (5-0 ATS in the last five), and they went 10-2 ATS in the postseason (5-2 ATS on the road). However, they closed out the regular season in a 3-9 ATS slump (2-4 ATS on the road).

Including last year’s playoff series, the host has won 12 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, but Cleveland is 9-2 ATS in the last 11, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Banknorth Garden. Also, the underdog is on a 9-4 ATS roll in this series.

The Celtics cashed in 15 of their last 20 home games (playoffs included), and they went 18-5 ATS in their last 23 regular-season games. However, they’re mired in ATS slumps of 3-8 against Eastern Conference foes and 3-8 versus the Central Division.

Boston went 48-7 at home last year (34-20-1 ATS), while Cleveland was 20-28 on the highway, but 27-21 ATS.

For Boston, the under is on runs of 20-9 against Central Division foes and 5-2 on Tuesdays, while the Cavs are on under streaks of 13-6 overall (all against the Eastern Conference) and 8-3 against the Atlantic Division. Finally, the under is 5-3 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER


Milwaukee (26-56, 34-47 ATS) at Chicago (33-49, 36-46 ATS)

Coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in years, the Bulls look to regain their playoff form when they open up by hosting the Bucks at the United Center.

Considered by many to be the favorite in the Eastern Conference heading into last season, Chicago fell flat, losing their first four games and 10 of their first 12 and never recovered, snapping a three-year playoff run. The Bulls ended the 2007-08 campaign in an 8-13 slump (9-12 ATS) and finished with a 20-21 home record (17-24 ATS). On the bright side, the franchise won the NBA draft lottery, and they used the No. 1 overall pick to select point guard Derrick Rose.

Milwaukee capped its fourth straight losing season with nine consecutive SU losses and five straight non-covers, a pair of losing skids that carry over to tonight. The Bucks finished with its fewest number of victories since the 1995-96 season and went just 7-34 on the highway (16-25 ATS).

The SU winner cashed in each of Chicago’s last nine games last spring, and the winner was 18-5 ATS in the Bucks’ last 23 games.

The Bulls are 7-1 SU against Milwaukee over the past two seasons, but only 4-4 ATS. In fact, the Bucks cashed in three of the four series meetings a year ago, the lone exception being a 151-135 loss as a one-point home favorite in the second-to-last game of the season. Finally, in this rivalry, the visitor is 6-1 ATS in the last seven battles.

Chicago covered in eight of its last 11 against the Central Division, while Milwaukee enters this season is in ATS funks of 3-9 on the highway and 7-19 against the Eastern Conference.

The Bulls ended last year on a 6-1 “under” streak, but the over was 24-16-1 in their 41 home games and 10-4-1 in their final 15 divisional contests last year. For Milwaukee, the over is on runs of 24-9-1 overall, 9-4-1 on the road, 17-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2 in divisional games and 31-12-1 on Tuesdays. Lastly, the over is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings between these division rivals (3-0 last three) and 5-0 in the last five clashes in Chicago.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Portland (41-41, 43-39 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (71-32, 56-44-3 ATS)

The Lakers begin their quest to repeat as Western Conference champs when they host Greg Oden and the upstart Trail Blazers at the Staples Center in Hollywood.

Los Angeles rolled through the Western Conference in last year’s postseason, going 12-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS. However, Kobe Bryant and Co. were no match for the Celtics in the NBA Finals, losing in six games while going 0-6 ATS. The Lakers closed out the regular season by winning eight of their last nine games, but they went just 4-7 ATS in their last 11.

The Blazers were one of the NBA’s biggest surprises last year, but they struggled over the final 2½ months of the season, losing 21 of their final 34 games to miss out on the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. However, they did close on a 16-10 ATS run, going 5-1 ATS in the last six.

The home team dominated this rivalry last year, winning all four games, but the Blazers cashed each time. In fact, Portland is on a 21-5 ATS roll against the Lakers, including nine consecutive spread-covers going back to March 2006, all as an underdog. Furthermore, the pup is 22-4 ATS in the last 26 series clashes. Finally, L.A. is 12-2 SU in the last 14 meetings at Staples Center, but the Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to Hollywood.

The Lakers failed to cover in five of their last seven home games (all in the playoffs), but they enter this season on pointspread streaks of 12-4-1 against the Western Conference, 7-2-1 versus the Northwest Division and 11-5 on Tuesdays.

Los Angeles went 40-12 at Staples in 2007-08, but 25-26-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Blazers were dismal on the highway last year, finishing 13-28 SU, but they cashed at a 21-20 clip.

Portland begins the year on under streaks of 10-3 overall, 17-5-1 on the road, 36-15 against the Western Conference and 5-1 versus the Pacific Division. Also, the under is 8-3 in the Lakers’ last 11 overall and 5-1 in their last six at home. Lastly, seven of the last 10 battles between these teams in Los Angeles have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and UNDER

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Re: NBA News and Notes Tuesday October 28

Tips and Trends

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Cavs: Cleveland visits Boston for the first time since last year's epic second-round series, and LeBron James may just have added the sidekick he needs to help him take the title away from the defending NBA champs. Mo Williams joins James after averaging 17.2 points per game with the Bucks last season. Williams could be the missing link for a team that took the Celtics to the limit a year ago in the playoffs and will get the opportunity to prove his worth right away against Boston's Rajon Rondo.

Cavs are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Boston's last 11 games vs. Atlantic Division.
   
Key Injuries - F Darnell Jackson (wrist) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 88 (Side Play of the Day)

Celtics (-7, O/U 179.5): The biggest issue for Boston in defending the NBA crown will be age, as the "Big Three" of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are all more than 30 years old. The team's depth has also been impacted by the defection of defensive stopper James Posey, who left as a free agent and signed with the Hornets. A healthy Tony Allen figures to replace Posey in that key role off the bench after coming back from knee surgery.

Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games.
Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - G Rajon Rondo (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 92


Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls

Bucks: Former Bulls head coach Scott Skiles returns to the United Center for the second time in five days after the Bucks lost 112-104 to the Bulls there on Friday night in the preseason finale for both teams. Skiles hopes to bring a defensive-minded approach to Milwaukee after the team surrendered 103.9 points per game a year ago (23rd in the NBA). New faces on the Bucks that will try to help him accomplish that are Richard Jefferson, Luke Ridnour and rookie Joe Alexander.

Bucks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Milwaukee's last 9 games vs. Central Division.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 94

Bulls (-6, O/U 194.5): Rookie point guard Derrick Rose begins a new era in Chicago along with new head coach Vinny Del Negro. The Bulls ranked dead last in the league in field-goal percentage (43.5 percent) and are hoping Rose can help turn things around after averaging 13.9 points and five assists in eight preseason games. Chicago has won five straight against the Bucks at home along with 12 of the last 14 meetings.

Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Central Division.
The OVER is 10-4-1 in Chicago's last 15 vs. Central Division.

Key Injuries - G Ben Gordon (toe) is questionable.
G Larry Hughes (dislocated shoulder) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 100


Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Blazers: Portland has the youngest team in the NBA but seems to be ready to take that next step and become a playoff team this year. Former #1 overall pick Greg Oden is set to return for the Blazers after missing all of last season following knee surgery, and leading scorer Brandon Roy also is coming off knee surgery. If Oden can make an immediate impact like most insiders believe he can, Portland will have one of the best frontcourts in the West.

Blazers are 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
The UNDER is 10-3 in Portland's last 13 games overall.
   
Key Injuries - G/F Martell Webster (foot) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 92 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Lakers (-7.5, O/U 196.5): The defending Western Conference champs didn't make any significant moves in the offseason, but they will be getting one key player back in center Andrew Bynum. LA will also have forward Pau Gasol for a full season to play alongside Bynum, who dislocated his left kneecap in January. Gasol was criticized for playing soft in the NBA Finals against the Celtics but will be able to play power forward with Bynum returning. The Lakers are hoping that combo inside will provide the perfect complement for Kobe Bryant and be the difference this year in winning a championship.

Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-3 in LA's last 11 games overall.

Key Injuries - G Kobe Bryant (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 101


CLEVELAND (52 - 43) at BOSTON (82 - 26)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 67-40 ATS (+23.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 9-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-7 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MILWAUKEE (26 - 56) at CHICAGO (33 - 49)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 71-91 ATS (-29.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


PORTLAND (41 - 41) at LA LAKERS (71 - 32)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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Re: NBA News and Notes Tuesday October 28

NBA Tuesday Research
By Indiancowboy

Cleveland vs. Boston

Obviously these two teams met last year and Cleveland does have its fair share of revenge. At the same token, Boston looks to continue their excellence from last year. What many might not know is the fact that although that Boston won this series, it is Cleveland that covered the last 5 games in a row in this contest. Furthermore, typically when Cleveland plays on the road the games are likely to go over at Boston. Take for example, the last two times these two teams played: Cleveland lost 92-97 on the road and of course, that game went over the 180 total that was set. In fact, whenever these two teams play, the total that is set more often than not is 179.5. Cleveland and Boston also faced each other in Game 5 which also went over in Boston by a score of 96-89. Thus, when Cleveland is an active dog on the road, the games go over which fits into my active dog/over theory. The public is split on this game and they should be with such a spread of 6.5 and the total has dropped four points down to 179. Note, that Cleveland now has brought on Mo Williams to help the scoring with James while Boston will be missing Posey this year.

Bucks vs. Bulls

Back on April 14th when these two teams played, the final score was 151-135. It was one of the higher scoring games in regulation in NBA History. In fact, the last three times these two teams have met the games have gone over. The line however has come down 3 to 4 points since the opening. The spread has remained at a steady dose of six despite about 60% of the public favoring the home team in the Bulls. Milwaukee has lost straight up to the Bulls the last three times but have covered 2 out of the last 3 games. The Bulls of course have some new blood in Derrick Rose being selected number one in the draft. The Bulls have Vinny D as their new head coach and with Rose in the backcourt, he can certainly transform this team similar to what Chris Paul has done in New Orleans. The Bucks of the old are no more. They have cleaned house as they have a new coach in Scott Skiles, and while keeping star Michael Redd, they have brought on Richard Jefferson, Luke Ridnour and Joe Alexander from West Virginia. The Bucks will focus and rely heaviliy on their defense this year as Skiles was always a defensive minded coach even in New Jersey.

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