SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
SFX -5 vs SEA
The Seattle Seahawks lost at home to the San Francisco 49ers with Matt Hasselbeck at QB back in Week 2, and now they will be going on the road for the rematch with Seneca Wallace under center. That's reason enough to back the 49ers, but I also love the fact that Mike Singletary will be coaching his first game for the team after Mike Nolan was fired earlier in the week. As a fan of the Chicago Bears growing up, I always knew Singletary would be a head coach in the NFL someday - and a good one at that. Now he finally gets his opportunity with Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren coming to town along with speculation that Holmgren will be the man in San Francisco next year. Singletary can squash those rumors by simply winning games, and I think the 49ers will be highly motivated in this spot similar to the Rams playing much harder since Jim Haslett has replaced Scott Linehan. Defensive coaches like Singletary and Haslett tend to get their teams a lot more fired up, and that's what I'm counting on Sunday with the 49ers. Plus, the top three defensive players for the Seahawks (Marcus Trufant, Lofa Tatupu and Patrick Kerney) are still playing with casts on their arms, making them easy targets for a San Francisco offense that put 33 points on them in the last meeting. Seattle is also just 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games during the month of October. Bet the 49ers to win big as my Triple Dime NFC West Game O' the Year.
PHI (+100) vs TAM
The Phillies stole Game 3 of the World Series after blowing the lead late and now have the chance to put their ace in position to win the championship in Game 5 on Tuesday. Of course that means they will have to win Game 4, but they will be handing the ball to a pitcher who has seen them win six straight with him on the mound in Joe Blanton. While Blanton hasn't exactly been lights out for Philly, I think he will relish this opportunity to pitch in the World Series and continue his recent success. The Phillies have won also won the last five times he has pitched at home. Tampa Bay's Andy Sonnanstine has given up three home runs in two playoff starts and benefit from his teammates scoring 19 runs in those outings to earn wins. Sonnanstine did not earn a win in his last four regular-season starts away from home, and I expect a return to form here. Bet the Phillies as my Single Dime World Series Play O' the Day.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
NOS +3.5 (-120) vs SDC 2* WAGER
(Buy the 1/2 Point to +3.5...w/ almost every shop offering SD -3 and -120/125...you should be able to grab the hook without the higher vig to get off 3)
MIA +2 vs BUF 2* WAGER
NYJ / KAN Over 39 2* TOTAL ** (UPGRADED)
OAK +8.5 vs BAL 2* WAGER
I had waited with the hope that this one gets to +9...but rather than wait and risk the outfits taking a stronger position, especially if Reed or McAlister, who are both listed as questionable...decided not to go...VR
DAL -1.0 (-115) vs TAM 2* WAGER *
BONUS NASCAR for SUNDAY
1.) KASEY KHANE +3000 (1*)...
I was really surprised when I called a friend back in Vegas and was informed he could get me +4000 on Khane...But I went and posted it at the Price it is currently being offered at Sportsbook.com, among others...
Rather than invest more units, by taking Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards...I have decided to go ahead and back Khane in Atlanta...which is the type of track he has really run well on this year for Everham...More importantly, he has already had a WIN and 4 Top 5's there and at this pricem since all the attention is on the guys trying to win the Chase...I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to go with a driver who should be willing to take some risks...and if he is able to be in contention late, we just may be able to pick up a nice score...VR
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -9
The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of today’s NFC clash between the host Eagles and the visiting Falcons from Atlanta. Both teams enter today’s contest coming off their bye week.
The fact the Eagles are coming off their bye is a huge plus for us as they are a perfect 9-0 in this situation under HC Andy Reid. In years past they have struggled going into their bye week but this season they had a solid performance against the 49ers heading into the bye.
Word out of the Eagles camp this week is they understand their position and honestly believe they can make a run in their division. They are getting healthy at the right time; they will get RB Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis back this week and that is a huge plus for the Eagles offense.
Atlanta has been good on offense this season but most of that success has come at home. Rookie QB Matt Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. The Falcons have been outgained in all 3 road games this season 373-291 with QB Matt Ryan averaging 170 yards passing per contest.
Atlanta’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season giving up over 5.5 yards per play. On the road their defense is allowing 24 points per game, 373 yards and over 6 yards per play.
We expect Phillies offense and defense to have big days on Sunday. The offense will certainly take advantage of a very weak Atlanta secondary and the Eagles defense will blitz young Ryan into mistakes. It all adds up to a Eagles win and cover on Sunday afternoon in Philly.
The Falcons are 5-13 ATS as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they won and covered their last two games. The Eagles are 12-4 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye including a perfect 5-0 ATS when facing an opponent with a win percentage of at least 66%. The Eagles are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS when McNabb starts and they are coming off their bye week. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS before playing the Seahawks.
Data base research has uncovered strong technical support for our selection on the Eagles in today’s contest. NFL Teams are 10-29-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 26-53 ATS as a dog when their opponent is off their bye. NFL Teams are 47-21-2 ATS as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 20-6-1 ATS as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 12-3-1 ATS as a 7+ favorite when they are 500.
We have two Power Systems that are active for today’s match up. Play AGAINST a non-Thursday road team (not a favorite of 4+ points) off a BYE and a home SU win of less than 3 points in its last game, 7-0 ATS since 1991. In Game 7 Play ON a .500% team with a total over 32 points off a road SU win outgaining their opponent by 35+ yards, 7-0 ATS since 1993 and averages covering the spread by 15.6 points per game.
Finally our Technical Situational Report has an active situation in today’s game that says to Play ON teams with an above average Rushing Game, currently facing a team coming off a SU underdog win with a season turnover differential of <=0.5. This situation’s record is 115-30 ATS since 1994.
Combine the fundamental advantages with the technical and situational support and the Eagles are our NFL 5* Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -9
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: 4* New York Giants +3
Manning and the New York Giants travel to Heinz Field to take on Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup of 5-1 teams Sunday.Pittsburgh, first in the league in total defense (228.3 yards per game) and pass defense (158.7), is coming off a 38-10 rout of Cincinnati last week.The Steelers offense had its second consecutive game of at least 375 yards but that came against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled this season. Mewelde Moore, the third-string running back coming into the season, made his second start of the year in place of an injured Willie Parker and rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught a TD pass from Roethlisberger in the first quarter.The Giants weren't strong offensively last week, but their defense stepped up in a 29-17 home victory over San Francisco. New York forced three turnovers, had its third six-sack game of the season and held the 49ers to 35 yards rushing.Manning wasn't at his best, but rebounded from a three-interception effort in a loss to Cleveland by not throwing any against the 49ers. He went 16-for-31 for 161 yards and a touchdown. We expect a much better performance from Manning in today’s game.
The Giants dropped from first to second in total offense but still rank first in rushing at 169.7 yards per game, and their powerful ground game against the Steelers' second-ranked run defense should be one of the key matchups Sunday. New York's Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw combined to run for 118 yards last week.Pittsburgh will face a Giants defense that ranks fifth in the league with 84.5 rushing yards allowed per game. New York is yielding 16.8 points per game - sixth overall. This will be the toughest test so far this season for Pittsburgh’s offensive unit.This will be the first time the Giants will play as a dog in the ’08 season and they are on a 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS run in that role overall. If the Giants are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .800 or better they are 12-1 ATS in that role! We also note a situation that tells us to Play AGAINST NFL Favorites with a good defense allowing 4.8 or less yards per play, after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game, 71-38 ATS the last ten seasons.
The Giants are 12-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 8-0 ATS the week after a straight up win in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties. The Giants are 9-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road. The Giants are 10-0 ATS as a road dog the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Giants are 8-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Giants are 10-1 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.
The Steelers are 0-8-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road. The Steelers are 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 1-9 ATS when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Steelers are 4-13-1 ATS within 3 of pick after playing as a favorite. The Steelers are 4-14-1 ATS as a favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. The Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home after playing as a favorite.
Our Technical Situational Report shows the Giants to be in a positive situation that says to Play ON teams coming off a game in which they surrendered less than 7 points in the first quarter and had >=100 Penalty Yards For, 73-19 ATS since 1994. They are also active in this situation that says to Play ON teams with a Rush Offense Rating at least 0.5 points higher than last year and at least 0.5 points higher than their opponent’s Rush Offense Rating, 139-57 ATS!
With extremely powerful technical support and an edge in the running game we will back the visitor here as the Giants keep this one close and possibly capture the SU win.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New York Giants +3
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
Prediction: 4* Kansas City Chiefs +13
The New York Jets will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. New York is coming off a SU loss at Oakland last week while the Chiefs lost to Tennessee 34 to 10 at home.
Everyone appears to be expecting the Jets to really bounce-back strong after their loss to the Raiders as they lay close to two touchdowns in this contest. I admit KC is bad but not bad enough to warrant two touchdowns.
Looking at the Jets they have beaten Miami, Arizona and Cincinnati. The Arizona contest is the only one that would cover this large of a number and that game fell into the West Coast phenomenon where these teams have not won a single game this season when playing on the East Coast and kickoff is at 1:00 PM EST.
Another key technical factor in this contest is the fact that double-digit underdogs have posted a record of 10-2 ATS and have won four times this season SU. Very seldom do NFL teams cover such large numbers. Adding to this fact the Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the role of double-digit underdog.
Last season the Jets were 6 point home favorites against this Kansas City team and had to take them to overtime to get the 13 to 10 win. The Jets have a huge game with Buffalo on deck and the Chiefs enter this contest off two terrible performances.
We also note that NFL Teams that are underdogs of 10.5 points or more that were outgained by 100 or more yards in each of their last two games and are being outgained by an average of 100 yards per game on the year are 24-4 ATS.
Our data base research has uncovered power systems that are active for today’s contest. Play AGAINST a favorite of more than 5 points with a TOTAL of 37-45 points off a road favorite OT contest in its last game and not before a BYE, 17-0 ATS since 1989. Play AGAINST a non-division favorite of 4+ points off an OT SU loss/tie in its last game and before a division game next week vs. an opponent not before a Saturday home contest in its next game, 16-0 ATS since 1987.
We will take the generous points here as the Chiefs keep this one close.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Kansas City Chiefs +13
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: 4* New York / Pittsburgh Over 42
The Steel City will be the site of today’s clash between the host Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Giants from the Big Apple. This will be the Giants first trip to Pittsburgh since October 14, 1991 and many believe this could possibly be a preview of this years Super Bowl.
Both teams are known for their defense but our Offensive Efficiency Index shows that both of these teams can score. The Steelers are ranked 8th in the NFL with 12.72 YPPT and the Giants are ranked 11th with a 13.94 YPPT.
The Giants have another huge offensive advantage with their Offensive Line. Our OL Efficiency Index has the Giants ranked number 2 in the league with a 4.3 average. They rank number 1 in the Yards per Attempt category with a 5.62 average.
Our Math Model Index projections show the Giants rushing for 136 yards and passing for 198 yards with an average score of 25.4 points against this Pittsburgh defense. Projections for the Steelers show them rushing for 102 yards and passing for 210 with an average score of 26.1 points against the Giants defense on Sunday.
New York is averaging 27.5 points per game on the road this season against teams that would allow 24.7 points per contest. The Giants defense has been touched for 24.0 points per game on the road against teams that average scoring only 17.7 points per game.
Pittsburgh is averaging 30.5 points per game at home this season against teams that only allow 22 points per game. The Steelers defense is allowing 18.5 points per game at home against opponents that average scoring 19.8 points per game.
The Giants are 5-0 Over within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Giants are 5-0 Over as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Steelers are 15-2 Over as a home favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Steelers are 12-1 Over within 3 of pick at home. The Steelers are 9-1 Over as a home favorite when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Steelers are 9-0 Over as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Steelers are 12-3 Over within 3 of pick when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Steelers are 8-1-1 Over within 3 of pick when they won by 21+ points last week.
A check of the data base revels several strong technical systems that are active for today’s contest and support our selection on the “Over” in this game. NFL Teams are 49-28-1 Over as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. NFL Teams are 16-5-1 Over on the road the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 41-25 Over when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-2 Over within 3 of pick when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.
NFL Teams are 12-3 Over within 3 of pick at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. NFL Teams are 21-7-1 Over within 3 of pick after a straight up win on the road. NFL Teams are 14-6 Over as a home favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. NFL Teams are 12-3 Over the week after as a TD+ favorite in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average.
Strong fundamental and technical support for the “Over” makes this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week Selection.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New York / Pittsburgh Over 42
St. Louis Rams vs. New England Patriots
Prediction: 3* St. Louis / New England Under 43
The New England Patriots will play host to the St. Louis Rams on Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. This will be the Rams first visit to Gillette after going 3-1 in the old Foxboro Stadium.
New England has been struggling on offense after the loss of QB Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the season-opener. They have scored 20 or less points in four of their first five games. However they did put 41 on the Denver Broncos last Monday night but that was helped by five Denver turnovers.
We know that NFL Teams that are coming off a game in which they forced 3 or more turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better have gone “Under” at a rate of 84-44 the last five seasons.
St. Louis has fired their head coach and pulled off two rather surprising wins over the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys in the aftermath. They spent the first four weeks of the season losing each game by at least 17 points but they now appear to be heading in the right direction under “interim” head coach Jim Haslett.
The Rams qualify in a solid “Under” situation that tells us to Play Under on NFL road teams after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. These teams have gone “Under” at a rate of 44-18 the last five seasons.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index reflects both teams’ inability to put points on the board consistently. New England is 14th with a YPPT of 14.57 and the Rams are ranked 23rd with a YPPT 15.75.
Finally we note that teams coming in off a home underdog SU win in their last game during the month of October are 4-12 Under. If those teams are installed as an underdog of 4 or more points they go “Under” at a rate of 1-9.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* St. Louis / New England Under 43
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Dr. Bob Sports
2 Star Selection
NY JETS (-13.0) 28 Kansas City 7
Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL with Tyler Thigpen back as the starting quarterback after starter Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard were both knocked out for the season last week. Thigpen got a few starts earlier this season and he has averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards on 95 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The Chiefs have averaged only 4.3 yards per play this season and scored 14 points or less in 5 of their 6 games and their offense is even worse with Thigpen at quarterback and with Larry Johnson suspended again this week, as I rate KC’s attack at 1.6 yppl worse than average (they are -1.2 yppl for the season). Kansas City’s median scoring output is 10 points and I don’t see them getting that many against a good Jets’ defense that has yielded just 4.9 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. New York gave up big points to explosive passing teams San Diego and Arizona, but they gave up 19 points or fewer in their other 4 games and allowed just 171 yards at 2.9 yppl to Cincinnati and their backup quarterback a couple of weeks ago. My math model projects just 176 yards at 3.0 yppl for Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs are also horrible on defense, as that unit has surrendered 6.5 yppl and 27.5 points per game this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 21 points against an average defensive unit. The Jets are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively this season, but Brett Favre and company should feast on the Kansas City’s horrible defense in this game. My math model projects 417 yards at 6.6 yppl for New York and favors the Jets by 24 ½ points. After losing last week in Oakland, the Jets should be focused for this game and there are no strong situations that favor the big underdog (usually there are). I’ll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.0) 26 St. Louis 14
The Rams are 2-0 under interim head coach Jim Haslett after starting the season 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS. Upset win over the Redskins and Cowboys does not make Haslett a miracle worker, as those wins were more good fortune than good football. The win over Washington was the result of 3 lost fumbles by a Redskins’ offense that had committed zero turnovers in their first 5 games and the Rams were out-played 3.8 yards per play to 6.0 yppl in that lucky win. Last week the Rams got a break with Tony Romo’s broken pinky, as Cowboys’ backup Brad Johnson threw 3 interceptions in a game in which the Rams were +4 in turnover margin. The Rams did out-gain Dallas 5.9 yppl to 5.8 yppl, but the Cowboys are a below average team without Romo and their best defensive back Pacman Jones, who is serving a suspension that started last week. New England is coming off a misleading 40-7 win over Denver on Monday night football, in which the Pats were +5 in turnover margin and facing a Denver offense with a banged up quarterback (Cutler was injured early in the game) that refused to stay out of the game despite not being able to perform to his normal standards. New England is below average on both sides of the football and my math model favors the Patriots by 7 ½ points in this game – so the line is about right. The reason for backing the Pats is a negative 40-96-3 ATS road letdown situation that applies to the Rams in this game and I’ll consider New England a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Cincinnati (+9.5) 18 HOUSTON 21
Cincinnati is 0-7 straight up, but their solid defense (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is capable of keeping them competitive against a sub-par Houston team with a terrible defense that’s allowed 6.2 yppl and 30 points per game. The Texans have won two games in a row after starting 0-4, but they didn’t cover the spread in either one of those games and they allowed a pathetic Detroit team to cover against them last week despite opening up a 21-0 lead in that game. Houston actually applies to a very negative 4-28 ATS subset of a 68-141-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while Cincinnati applies to a 51-15-2 ATS situation that plays on winless teams. Houston is also just 4-15 ATS following a home win, including their spread loss last week. The technical analysis gives Cincy a very profitable 58% chance of covering at a fair line, but the fair line on this game appears to be 10 points - the line opened at 10 ½ points and my math model favors Houston by 10.0 points with Carson Palmer still out. A game with a 58% chance of covering at a fair line of +10 has a far less profitable 55% chance of covering at +9 ½ points and 54% at +9. I will insist on getting +10 points with at least -1.15 odds or better to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +9 or +9 ½ points and I’ll take the Bengals in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points at -1.15 odds or better.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4* STL/NE OVER
3* Tenn (MONDAY)
1* New Orleans
4* NY Giants
(Phil Steele's plays are the same)
4* Teaser Balt/NE
3* NY Giants
3* San Diego
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