SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

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Beat Your Bookie

100 - Tulsa

100 - New England
50 - Houston
50 - Philadelphia

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PSYCHIC

2 units Arizona +3.5
2 units Oakland +9
3 units Detroit +9
3 units Buffalo -1
5 units San Diego -3
WISEGUY

DA STICK

5 units San Diego -3
10 units Jacksonville -7
10 units Pittsburgh -3

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ETHAN LAW

5% DALLAS GOY
1% ARIZONA +4

GUYS OF COURSE IT IS NOT DALLAS. I just didn't want the play posted on any other forums, so I did that to throw people off. I took it off, it is a pay play guys.

That was nice of him  :-

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Bob Majors

BAL -7.5  vs OAK

Double-Dime Bet

Both Oakland Raiders (2-4) and Baltimore Ravens (3-3) ended their three game losing streak last weekend.

The Raiders will challenge the Raven defense this weekend as they amassed 344 total yards against the Jets in a 16-13 victory. QB JaMarcus Russell went 17-30 for 203 yards a 1 touchdown. The defense allowed the Jets 418 yards which was the 3rd time this season this has occurred.

The Ravens offense averages 17.5 ppg and 313.7 ypg which ranks 26th in the league. QB Joe Flacco went 17-23 for 232 yards and 1 touchdown against Miami and RB Willie McGahee ran 19 times for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. The defense surrendered a season high 359 yards last week against Miami, but still manage a 27-13 victory.

The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more that 350 total yards in their previous game. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The defense is solid at home with the Ravens and we are going with giving the small number as the Ravens will shut down the Raiders.

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King Creole

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
2* BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS
2* BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

Game One:
The high-flying Cardinals travel east this week rested, relaxed, and confident (4-2 SU).Off 2 huge home wins against the Cowboys and Bills, Arizona now holds all the CARDS in regards to the weak NFC West division. We already know that they qualify in high-scoring WEST to EAST Over tendencies, which is a good start, But both they AND the Panthers are active in two great Pre and Post REST situations:6-1 O/U since 1999 for Game 7 teams with REST off a SUATS win (CARDS).... and 6-0 O/U for Game 8 FAVS of < 6 points BEFORE their Bye Week (PANTHERS).

Arizonas offense is in high gear, scoring 30, 41, and 35 in their last 3 games.Since 2002, NFL dogs of 2+ points are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 30+ pts in their last 3 games.And if youre looking for a hot ultra-RECENT tendency: In the last 12 months, NFL underdogs playing off 3 straight OVERS are 8-1 O/U.

The results of their last 2 games is a good sign for us, as revealed in a rare System: 3-0 O/U since 2002 for all NFL dogs of 6 < pts off a SU home win as a dog of +4 or more... and a SU home win before that. Meanwhile, the Panthers have reeled off 5 straight UNDERS in their last 5. This is the week we strike back: 10-2 O/U in the last 3 years for all NFL teams off 5 straight ?Unders? in a row... and 4-0 O/U if both tms are off a SU win. Carolina?s last 2 games have been a division roller coaster, as they creamed the Saints but lost big to the Bucs. 6-0 O/U since 1990: ALL home teams off a SU div win 17+ pts.. and a SU div loss of 17+ pts.


Game Two:
The winless Lions have allowed a whopping 31 PPG so far in the 2008 season, so this call is not much of a stretch. Theyre the perfect opponent for the Redskins to get back in gear against. As we mention on page three of this week's TIPSHEET, Detroit is active in a pretty solid System as they seek their first win. 12-1 O/U since 1986 for Game 7 or greater non-division WINLESS teams against an opponent off a SU home win (like the Skins).As a result of their early-season futility, the Lions are getting a ton of points at home this week. These ?long dogs? have been really hot so far this year for high-scoring potential.ALL non-division home dogs of 7+ points are already a PERFECT 5-0 O/U this season... and 24-9 O/U in the last 3 years..

I also did some research in the set that I created in the database for the teams that play their home games indoors. The Dome Dog aspect also reveals great OVER results for Detroit: 22-7 O/U for all DOME home dogs since 2001... 10-2 O/U as dogs of > 4 pts... and 7-0 O/U in the last 2 years.

On the Redskins side, well be playing on another team that?s also on a UNDER streak (0-3 O/U last 3). This angle applies not just to the Skins, but to the Panthers (above) too: 8-1 O/U in the last 10 years for GAME 8 non-div FAVS playing off 3+ Straight Unders in a row. Washington?s results in their last 2 homies (SU win ATS loss / SUATS loss) has them active in a nice one based on the site + spread. 5-0 O/U since 2002 ALL road favs of -4 > pts off a SU home win but ATS loss (vs Clev).. and a SUATS home loss before that. (vs Stl).


Game Three:
This NYJ / KC series is already 1-4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings. There were four upsets last week in the NFL as the Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Colts all lost as favorites (against the Ravens, Rams, Raiders, and Packers respectively). The Playbook database tells us to look for low-scoring results when these pissed-off losers return to the comforts of home in the month of October. 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. we note that NON-DIVISION teams (JETS and COWBOYS) are 2-10 O/U.... and have already gone 1-6 O/U so far in the 2008 season.

A review of this week's point spread and OU line also points us in the right direction: In the last 3 years, NFL teams are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U as non-div home favs of > 10 points with an OU line of 38 < points (Jets).

The Chiefs got bounced at home last week against the Titans 38-10. Another good sign for UNDER players:
1-6 o/U in the last 4 years for NFL road teams off a SU non-div home dog loss of 21 or more points (Chiefs).


Game Four:
Miami is another one of those teams that we just mentioned that lost at home last week as a FAVORITE. So they apply in the same OU System as the Jets: 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. As a team, this System fits right in as MIAMI is a PERFECT 0-7 O/U at home when playing off a SU favorite loss.

Buffalo comes in with tied with the 2nd best record in the NFL at 5-1 (tied with NY GIANTS and PITT STEELERS). In some cases, we will indeed play OVER for these 5-1 teams (see below). But in some situations, the database tells us to go the other way (UNDER).3-13 O/U for all GAME SEVEN road favorites of 9 < points when their current W/L record is 5-1 on the year (Bills). When these 5-1 teams are laying points in the road against fellow DIVISION opponents (like the Bills), the results are 1-10 O/U.

The Bills looked very good last week against the Chargers in their first game after their Bye week.3-13 o/U in the last 4 years for ALL NFL teams who won SU and ATS in the week AFTER Their Bye... and lost SU and ATS in the week before their Bye (Bills). ROAD teams in this situation are 1-8 O/U.


Game Five:
If we're talking about a HOME game in the 'STEEL CITY', we always look to the Over FIRST... instead of the Under. Steeler home OVERS have been the way to go lately (23-5-1 O/U last 29 home games / 12-1 O/U as home favs < 7 pts). Theres no other way to go!

Our previous write-up mentioned Buffalo's 5-1 record entering their game against the Dolphins. Well, this game features not one but TWO teams who come in with a 5-1 SU record so far in the 2008 season.This situation is rare, but the database tells us that When a 5-1 team takes on another 5-1 team, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U since 1993.

Both teams come in off B-I-G wins:6-1 O/U since 1995 for all teams off a road win of 28 > pts (PITT) vs an opp off a home win of 10 > pts (NYG).

Here's an Inter-conference query that also fits the bill:17-4 O/U since 2004 for AFC home favs vs an NFC opp when both are off a SU win.

The Giants rebounded nicely off their Monday loss 2 weeks ago.6-0 O/U since 2000 for all teams off a SU DD home fav win... and a SU road loss as favs of -7 > pts.

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Inside Sports Report

4* Washington -7.5 over Detroit
Range: -5.5 to -9

3* Carolina -4 over Arizona
Range: -2.5 to -6

3* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta
Range: -7 to -10.5

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MATT RIVERS   :x

1. 100,000&#9830; Panthers

2. 75,000&#9830; Steelers

3. 50,000&#9830; Eagles





1. Kurt Warner has been putting up some very good numbers and the Cardinals are a first place team that has offensive firepower but once again traveling all the way across the country will prove to be too much.



Arizona lost in a non-cover earlier in the season in Washington and then was destroyed by Brett Favre and the Jets after that allowing 56 points in that debacle. Now the Cards go East once again and are up against a physical Carolina team that is no joke at all. Julius Peppers and this Carolina defense will knock Warner around and for this number to be as cheap as it is is a little wrong.



The Panthers are a very solid rushing offense that will man up and run down hill with their two headed monster in Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Throw in the deep threat potential of Steve Smith and an old pro in Jake Delhomme and the home field advantage and how can you not lay around four points!?!?!?



Anquan Boldin may play a little bit and he and Larry Fitzgerald are as dangerous of a tandem as they come but the intangibles here are too much to overcome and the physicallity of the opponent does not equate to an Arizona quality showing today.





27-17 Carolina





2. Santonio Holmes and Willie Parker are out and the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions and a team that certainly will not panic on the road but I still cannot pass up the Steelers at home and lay at most a field goal.



New York is just not that good right now. They were awful in the Monday night loss to Cleveland and played mediocre at the very very best in that win last week over San Fran at home, where a late safety led to the Giants cover. Plaxico Burress and Tom Coughlin are at odds and it's just not going to fly today against Troy Polamalu and that vaunted Pittsburgh defense.



Big Ben Roethlisberger will control the show as he usually does. The numbers may not be great but the tall Quarterback will do his thing and has a back in Mewelde Moore who has not only been great since given the chance here thanks to all of the injuries but is a guy that had success with the Vikings a few years back and is semi legit.



In order to cover the Giants pretty much have to win this game on the road at Heinz Field and that is a tough tough order. This number should be more like 6 as the Steelers will grind this thing out and cash the ticket after 60 minutes of football.







3. I hate laying such a big number like this and especially to a budding star in Matt Ryan but this is the game that the Falcons lay an egg in. Sure Atlanta has been much much better and did win that game in Lambeau a few weeks ago but the Packers were beat up in that game and the physical Eagles are just too good.



In the first two roadies of the campaign the Falcons did not score a touchdown and were manhandled by tough and gritty Carolina and Tampa Bay squads. Philly is very much in that same mold with Jim Johnson's blitzking defense and guys flying around the field. Without the indoor home dome Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood will not feel as comfortable and Ryan will have his share of issues for sure as well.



Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook at home are too stout and will wreak too much havoc in what will turn out to be a double digit win. I guess the Falcons have enough to stay close and maybe get in a backdoor but in the City of Brotherly and with a very very overdue egg to be layed by the Falcons this one is all about the home boys.

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Kelso has a 75 unit parlay today.  Is there any sign of that yet?  He has been very good with his 50 unit and up plays this year.

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Blade wrote:


KELSO

50 unit NFC GOY - 49ers

50 units San Francisco
50 units Jets
5 units Oak/Balt UNDER 35.5
4 units Tampa Bay +2
3 units Giants +3

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Anyone know the record of the bookie battle when going against the consensus?














Blade wrote:


Inside Sports Report

4* Washington -7.5 over Detroit
Range: -5.5 to -9

3* Carolina -4 over Arizona
Range: -2.5 to -6

3* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta
Range: -7 to -10.5

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Blade wrote:


Blade wrote:


ETHAN LAW

5% DALLAS GOY
1% ARIZONA +4

GUYS OF COURSE IT IS NOT DALLAS. I just didn't want the play posted on any other forums, so I did that to throw people off. I took it off, it is a pay play guys.

That was nice of him  :-

Screw Ethan.

** CORRECT PLAYS**


Ethan Law

5% KANSAS CITY +$14   GOY
2% JACKSONVILLE -7
2% SEATTLE +5.5
2% KANSAS CITY +$600

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Marc Lawrence

DAL -2.5 vs TAM

Double-Dime Bet

Dallas returns home off back-to-back road losses looking to get back on the win track at Texas Stadium today when they host Tampa Bay.  For openers the Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses when facing non-division opponents.  Furthermore, NFL home teams with a winning record playing off back-to-back SU road favorite losses are 10-0 SU and ATS if they scored 17 or less points in their last game. With Tampa 0-10-1 ATS on the road off a win versus a greater than .000 opponent off back-to-back losses we'll stay at home with the Cowboys in this game.


CLE 7 vs JAC

Double-Dime Bet

Cleveland travels to Jacksonville in a non-division AFC showdown in a matchup of two disappointing teams.  The Jaguars enter today's game allowing 34 YPG than they are gaining this season, not a good indicator for a touchdown favorite.  They are also 0-8 ATS when favored by 6 or more points against an opponent off a road game.  Meanwhile, the Browns will look to rely on Romeo Crennel's 7-1 ATS record as a dog of 6 or more points off a loss, including 7-0 versus a foe off and ATS loss or win or less than 15 points.  Take the points with Cleveland. 

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Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta (Power Play)

Atlanta
• 1-4 SU & ATS vs. NFC East Division Opponents
• 2-18 SU as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
• 3-11 ATS coming off an upset win as a home underdog

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Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. Take Over 43 in St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots

The Patriots lit up the scoreboard last Monday night with an impressive beat down of Denver and we expect another high scoring game on Sunday as they play their second straight game @ Foxboro Stadium. The Rams have been the talk of the league the last two weeks, as they have notched two straight victories under new Coach Jim Haslett and the beat down Dallas last week. We will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. New England 31, St. Louis 24.


3 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Eagles -8 ½ over Atlanta Flacons

The Falcons are coming off a bye and playing a desperate team looking to stay in contention for a playoff birth in the NFC. The Eagles also had last week off and Coach Reid is 9-3 ATS when coming off of a bye. The Eagles are starting to get healthy with running back Westbrook likely back and he makes this offense go. RB Turner has had some big games but most of them came at home against bad teams and the Eagles defense will blitz early and often creating problems for young QB Ryan. Philly needs this one and they get it by double-digits. Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.


3 Unit Play. Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts

The Titans continue to be doubted week in and week out, but all that they do is win games and are playing an overrated Colts team on Monday night. Indy is still without S Bob Sanders and without him their defense is not the same. Green bay ran the ball right down their throat and expect the Titans and their one-two punch of Johnson and White to have similar success. The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

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Frank Patron

30,000 Units

Carolina -4

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ATSLOCKS.COM

Falcons @ Eagles Under 45 (15 Units)

Steelers -3 (10 Units)

49ers -5.5 (10 Units)

Eagles -9 (5 Units)

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Opposite Action Plays

Browns

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Marc Lawrence    

Tulsa

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Mike Lineback 

Chargers / Saints Under

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