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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider

Dallas Cowboys


20* Total of the Month (15-6 s/'03!)

SD/NO OVER


20* NFC Game of the Year

Philadelphia Eagles


Weekend Wipeout Winner (ATS blowout!)

Carolina Panthers

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Tommy Rider

5 UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

PHI -9 vs ATL

When I give out a Game of the Year selection, it's always on a team I feel is in the best spot of any throughout the season. As I look over the remainder of the NFL schedule, I don't see a situation that will benefit a team more than the one the Philadelphia Eagles are in this Sunday.

First, let's start with coming off the bye week. Some coaches just know to prepare their team to play after a bye and no one does it any better than Andy Reid. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 under Reid coming off a bye week. I also like to look at how a team goes into their bye and the Eagles are coming off a strong performance in San Fran. Also, I've been told by Eagles Insiders that even though the team is currently in last place in the NFC East, they believe with the Cowboys having problems and the Redskins still employing a young quarterback that they they are the best team in the division.

Another reason to like the Eagles here is because they are getting healthy at the right time. Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis will both be playing on Sunday, giving Donovan McNabb and the Eagles their top two offensive weapons on the field together for the first time all year. Also, receiver Reggie Brown is finally back to full strength as well, making this the first time McNabb has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.

Finally, I think the Eagles have the perfect opponent coming off the bye week. The Falcons are a nice surprise but they are a team you bet at home and fade on the road. They did beat a depleted Packers team on the road but were handled easily by both the Bucs and Panthers. Matt Ryan's numbers are significantly worse away from home. Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. And now defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had an extra week to come up with a bevy of new blitz packages to throw at the rookie. Here is what safety Brian Dawkins had to say about this week's gameplan:

"We're not going to stop. You may get us every once in a while, but we're not going to stop, so you have to be able to maintain that same cool that you were on that one play that you got us on the other 20 blitzes that we throw at you."

I expect the Eagles defense to harass the young Ryan and force him into turning the ball over. Remember one thing: Asante Samuel, along with Champ Bailey, is the best CB in the NFL when it comes to jumping a route. I expect him to have a big game against Ryan.

Atlanta has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%). They now face an Eagles defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. In other words, the Falcons will be forced to pass and Philly is going to feed off that and eat Ryan alive.

So, those are the reasons why I made this my NFL Game of the Year. I expect something like a 37-6 Eagles win, so hopefully this one will be over early and you can all sit back and relax

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Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections

5* Redskins at Lions:

I'm not concerned with the Redskins not putting up a ton of points the last two weeks. There is nothing wrong with this offense. The Redskins (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) are playing great for new coach Jim Zorn. This is an uptempo West Coast attack and quarterback Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick! They have outstanding balance with RB Clinton Portis (fourth straight 100-yard performances), plus WRs Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El. They feature many three-and four-receiver sets and will tear up this terrible Detroit defense. The Lions (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS) may have covered the last two games, losing 12-10 to the Vikings and 28-21 at Houston, but don't be fooled. They were outgained by a wide margin to the conservative Vikings and allowed 404 yards, including 150 rushing, last week to struggling Houston. Houston held the ball for a franchise-record 40:04. This defense is awful, last in the NFL. The offense has turned to Dan Orvolsky (31 points total in his two starts) and recently traded away its best player, WR Roy Williams. The Lions have been outscored 54-0 in the opening quarter this season! Play the Redskins.

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King Creole

Triple-Dime Bet

CIN +9.5 vs HOU

Sharp players already know that DOUBLE-DIGIT underdogs have already CLEANED UP in the 2008 season. For the purposes of this game, we'll create a 2008 set for ALL underdogs of +9 or higher (since the line is going down a little). The numbers are just as GREAT... depending on the conditions. 12-3 ATS so far this season for all NFL road underdogs of +9 > points (CINCY). Bring in an opponent that's playing off 2 wins in a row (like Houston), and the results improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.

The Bengals are one of only two WINLESS teams in the 2008 season (Detroit being the other). You might be 'holding your nose' when you make this play... but it's the right thing to do according to our database.
Since 1985, NFL teams that are WINLESS in GAME EIGHT or greater are a very impressive 43-16 ATS (73%). We can tighten these numbers considerably based on two different angles: DOUBLE-DIGIT winless dogs are 14-1 ATS (keep your eye on the line).... or 12-2 ATS if our winless team is off an ATS loss of 10 > pts (like CINCY), and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS if this team is taking on a < .500 opp (Houston).

All of us are aware that the Bengals got CREAMED at home last week against the Steelers (final score 38-10). Once again, you may not feel comfortable playing on such a team in your first impression... but these teams DO tend to bring home the bacon in their next game. 14-5 ATS last 3 years for teams off a SU home loss of 21 > pts (CINCY) vs any opponent off a SU win (Houston). And the numbers improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS vs < .500 opponents (like Houston).

Based on the Hurricane impact earlier in the season, the TEXANS find themselves in some unique scheduling situations. This week's game against the Bengals is their FOURTH straight home game. First, we'll do a query for 3 straight 'homies'... and then 4 straight.

6-20 ATS since 199 for all NFL favorites of > 7 points playing in their 3rd STRAIGHT home game... 4-18 ATS when playing off a SU win (Houston)... 2-13 ATS taking on an opponent off a SU loss (CINCY)... and a PERFECT 0-12 ATS as favs of > 7 and < 14 points. We also note that in this decade, NON-DIVISION teams are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.

NFL teams playing in the 'ever-so-rare' FOURTH straight home game (Houston) are a PERFECT 0-3 ATS since 1990.

After starting the season losing each of their first four games, The TEXANS have won two games in a row... but FAILED to get the cash (as in ATS win) in either game. 2-10 AST since 1996 for all NFL favorites off BB SU home wins... but BB ATS losses (Houston). For a tightener, you can take your pick. Either situation is PERFECT: 0-6 ATS as favs of > 7 pts (Houston)... or 0-5 ATS vs any opponent off a double-digit SU loss (like CINCY).

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Stephen Nover

Double-Dime Bet

HOU / CIN Over 44.5 

The Houston Texans just may be the best 'over' team in the NFL with a potent offense and weak defense. This has resulted in the Texans going 'over' eight straight times, including all six games this season.

The 'over' has cashed 70 percent of the time during the past 17 instances in which the Texans played a team with a winning percentage of less than 33 percent.

The Texans are fifth in offense. They've scored at least 27 points in each of their past four games and should have no problem reaching that figure against a Bengals defense now missing one of their better players, linebacker Keith Rivers.

Andre Johnson has played better than any other wide receiver during the past two weeks and the Texans now have a solid 1-2 running punch with a healthy veteran Ahman Green joining good-looking rookie Steve Slaton.

Look for Bengals second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his best game since replacing an injured Carson Palmer. He's had several starts and his more comfortable with his main wide receiving targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Houston is yielding 29.8 points per game. Only the Lions are giving up more. The Bengals have the wideouts to take advantage of the Texans' porous secondary.

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Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Baltimore -7
New Orleans +3
Buffalo -1
Tampa Bay +1 1/2
Atlanta +9
New England -7
Detroit +7 1/2
Jacksonville -7
Cincinnati +9 1/2

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Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 8)

Cincinnati +10 over Houston
NY Giants +2.5 over Pittsburgh
Buffalo -1.5 over Miami
Pittsburgh/NY Giants over 42.5
San Francisco/Seattle over 41.5

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Jeffersonsports

Philadelphia -9
Tulsa-23

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BIG AL

1* Tulsa

1* Pittsburgh Steelers

1* Cincinnati Bengals

1* Dallas Cowboys

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Spylock

5 units New Orleans

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Scott Spreitzer

AFC Shocker Of The Month

Chiefs

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Smart Betting Systems

Carolina
Baltimore
Philly

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Randall the Handle

MIAMI +1.01 over Buffalo

The Bills stock is way up again after they beat the Chargers last week and ran their record to 5-1 but don’t get too carried away on them yet. A close looks shows a team that beat a woeful Seahawk club in week one and then in week 2 they got a nice win over Jacksonville but they got it in the final seconds and Jacksonville was way out of sync then. In week three, the Bills needed a miracle at home against the Raiders and they got it. In week four they were losing to the Rams most of the way and again made a fourth quarter comeback and won 31-14. They then traveled to Arizona and the Cardinals torched them and made the Bills look bad in doing so. Finally, there was the aforementioned win over the reeling Chargers last week. So, while the 5-1 record looks good on paper, the Bills should be 5-1 with the teams they played and they didn’t do it with ease, that’s for sure. Now they have the media’s attention and a little too much hype. On NFL Countdown this week, Chris Berman sits down with Trent Edwards and discusses the Bills rise to the top of the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Dolphins stock has dropped after consecutive losses to Houston and Baltimore. They could have won both those games and while a loss is a loss, it’s very evident that the Dolphins are on to something good. Chad Pennington keeps moving the offense and in fact, he went 24-35 for 295 yards against a Raven defense that ranks near the top in most categories. I’m just not sold on the Bills as others might be but I am sold on Parcells ability to turn losers into winners. Despite losing its past two, the Dolphins are ready to pop again and this intruder is really not as good as their record suggests. Play: Miami +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

NY Giants +1.35 over PITTSBURGH

For the first time since week one when they beat the Redskins the Giants actually have a game against an opponent they can get excited for. After playing Washington to open the season the Giants faced St. Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland and San Fran. This team hasn’t had their competitive juices flowing for weeks now but a game in Pittsburgh will change that. None of the Steelers wins have been impressive at all. The Eagles buried them and their other wins came against Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Cinci. Incidentally, they were tooth and nails to beat both Baltimore (in Joe Flacco’s first road game) and Jacksonville and one could argue they were extremely fortunate to win both of those. The Steelers will take a huge step up in class here against the bruising play of the Giants. Of all the teams in the league the Giants are the least flawed and probably the most physical and they’ll expose the Steelers just like their NFC East rivals did. Oh, did I mention that the Giants have won 11 of their last 12 road games? Play: NY Giants +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +7½ over BALTIMORE

The Raiders will travel across the country again and that’s always a difficult assignment but this Raven team is not built for laying big points with and besides that, who have they beaten to warrant being a 7½-point choice? In fact, the three teams the Ravens have defeated (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Miami) are a combined 4-15. The Colts destroyed them 31-3 two weeks ago. So, while the Ravens defensive numbers are stellar, they’re also a bit skewed after playing some teams that can’t move five yards. Not that the Raiders are an offensive powerhouse because they’re not. However, they are averaging 345 yards per game and they got some life into them last week after a win over the Jets. The distractions surrounding the status of Lane Kiffen are gone and now the Raiders benefited right away. The Raiders have played some of the top offensive teams in the league in San Diego, New Orleans, Denver and to a lesser extent Buffalo and will find the offense or lack thereof of the Ravens to be much more to their liking. The Raiders defense is not easy to score against and in fact, they’ve recorded 16 sack in their past five games. Again, the Ravens are just not a team you lay significant points with and frankly, I’m not even sure they’re that much better then the Raiders. Home field counts for something but not more then a converted TD. If the game were in Oakland it would be a pick’em. Play: Oakland +7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +1.18 over DALLAS

Well, the greatest circus on turf will get at it once again and after their most embarrassing and humiliating loss in years one has to believe the Boys will be completely amped up and ready to go here. The question is, will it be enough? I don’t think so. Not because the Cowboys don’t have the talent but because they’re a dumpster-fire that’s burning out of control. Jerry Jones is a gambler. He gambles with oil and he gambles with personalities. When he has coaches that he can puppet-master (Wade Phillips and Dave Campo) the Cowboys sink fast. When he has coaches that bite back (Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells) the Cowboys rise to the top. But alas, Jones has to be in control and Wade Phillips is his puppet. Jones comes storming down onto the sidelines for the second half and we’re not sure who is doing the coaching. Jones gambled with T.O, he gambled with Pac-Man and now he’s gambling again with Roy Williams. T.O is rolling his eyes and screaming at teammates, Williams wants the ball, Brad Johnson is 40 years old and not very good and Wade Phillips has already lost control. Meanwhile, the Bucs continue to battle hard and play as a team. They seldom beat themselves and they have one of the best defenses in the game. The Bucs have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and that means that Johnson will likely have to go to the air. It’s not a good match-up for the Cowboys and it’s not a good time either. Things are about to blow up for the Cowboys and their pathetic secondary and I just can’t see how they’ll bounce back. This is a team of individuals that are finger-pointing and enjoying the circus. I’ll enjoy it too at about 4:00 PM when I’m in line to cash this ticket. Play: Tampa Bay +1.18 (Risking 2 units).

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RON RAYMOND

3* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET
Arizona Cardinals +3.5

5* O/U GAME OF THE WEEK
Falcons / Eagles Under 45

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Highprofitsports

5* Chargers/saints Under
4* Ravens
4* Bengals
3* Panthers
2* Jags

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Lock of The Day

NFL Lock Of the Month

Ravens

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Tony George

DAL -1 vs TAM

The Cowboys back is against the wall, Tampa Struggled against lowly Seattle for most the game last week, but I have a feeling that this is a game many expect Dallas to lose in the shape they are, but Brad Johnson and company get it done against his old team here. Tampa 1-2 on the road this year and I like Dallas to bounce back at home in a game that sets up the rest of the season in my opinion. Cowboys have more talent and should be able to get it all put together against a suspect Bucs team. Look for a reversal of fortune here for Dallas.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.

2 team teaser. Tease Baltimore to -3 and tease the TOTAL in the Steelers / Giants game Up to 48.5 and take the UNDER. Play 1 Unit..Thanks and Good Luck..Tony George


ATL 9.5 vs PHI

A team who beat Green Bay on the road getting 9 here. Unlike other rebuilding teams like KC lets say, Atlanta is getting better each week. The power running game, good passing by Rookie Ryan, and Philly is not fully recovered from their losing ways, although we pounded them last week against the 49ers, anyone looks good against the 49ers. Atlanta has a solid defense, good special teams, confidence, and some great skill players and scheme their games well. Should be a good game, possibly low scoring, I will take Atlanta. and the generous points. I watch Atlanta play and beat a good Chicago team last week and am impressed with the QB and RB and defense as well as being very well coached and prepared.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta


CAR -3.5 vs ARI

Sold on the resurgence of Carolina here who plays tough defense at home and power running game should dominate here, and open play action to WR Smith to make big plays. Arizona has lost 2 out of their 3 roadies this year to the NY Jets and Washington, both sound defeats. I like going against an Overtime winner, especially a dog the following week. Carolina is on a roll, they are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10, and in their last 3 games they have allowed 11 ppg on defense. Like the running game against Arizona here and the home team.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

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Andre Gomes

Double-Dime Bet

DAL -2 vs TAM

This game will be between two teams with different states of mind right now. More important than injuries or the players missing on a certain game, the psychological aspect can be the most important factor of a game and the teams are coming to this game in opposite states of mind.

Dallas has lost their second game in a row and the 3rd of their last 4 games. Their defeat against the Rams was horrible (I took them). The Cowboys started well the game with a TD on the first drive of the game, but then allowed 3 TD on the 3 first drives of the Rams, suffering 21 points in the 1st quarter of the game! This was the second game in a row the Cowboys have allowed at least 30 points and I expect the team to bounce back this week.

Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said Friday morning he was impressed with how the players responded to up-tempo practices this week and also with the atmosphere in the locker room.

"I have a good feeling," Phillips said. "Our team attitude is good. They're looking forward to this game."

Their defense will have their big test this week, after being humiliated last week against one of the weakest offenses of the league. The situation that I've told before about the psychological aspect of this game has to go with the fact this is a must win game for Dallas and it is inserted on a very strong spot called "Playoff Potential". And why? Well, Dallas is 4-3 and a defeat this week would put them with a 4-4 record, knowing the Giants are 5-1 and the Redskins are 5-2. So, a loss this week would put on a big hole, especially when their next two games will be against the Giants and the Redskins on the road!!! A defeat this week would almost kill their chances of reaching the postseason.

The spot of the Bucs is totally the opposite. They are 5-2 right now and they are coming from a very big home win over Seattle on a SNF game. And looking at their schedule, their next three games will be against the Chiefs, Minny and Detroit. A possible 3-0 for them on these games would be no surprise, which put the Bucs on a lookahead situation this week.

QB Brad Johnson didn't have the season debut as a starter he wanted last week against the Rams, with 3 interceptions and 1 TD pass, for just 50% completions, but Johnson has an edge this week. He has played in Tampa for four seasons with coach Gruden and know the Bucs' defensive system very well and knows how to avoid it.

Dallas is 0-4 ATS on their last 4 games and they are just being favored by 2 points on this game, so a win by a FG is enough for them to cover. The team still has a lot of talent even without Romo and the spot is too strong to be avoided. Dallas is 15-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1992. So, I'm taking Dallas in here for a good bounce back game for them. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.


PIT / NYG Under 42

At first sight, we could say this game will have as its key matchup, the offense of the Giants (2nd best in the league with 395.0 yds/game) and the defense of the Steelers (best in the NFL with only 228.3 yards/game allowed). The Giants are showing this season that they have a good offensive game. They won last season's SuperBowl, mainly due to their defense, but this season their offense is simply on-fire. All of this is true, but it hides a very important factor: the level of the opponents the Giants have faced this season. In 6 games, the Giants have faced one team with a winning record, the Redskins on opening night. After that, the Giants faced teams with a combined record of 7-25!!! So, it's better to be careful, when we analyze the Giants for this week's game. They have the best rushing game of the league, with 169.7 yards/game. But if we see the defenses of the Giants' opponents on their last 5 games, the team with the best rush defense is Seattle and they are just 22nd on the league with 121.3 rushing yards/game allowed. The last two times teams limited the Giants' running games, they had problems, as they barely defeated the Bengals and lost against the Browns.

Well, the Steelers are at a whole different level. They are the 2nd best rush defense of the league with just 69.7 yards/allowed and the Giants will for the first time the season face a team, which is capable of making them struggle on both ends of the football. However, the defense of the Giants continues to be very strong, even though most of the talk is about their offense right now. The team bounce back nicely from their MNF disaster at Cleveland and limited the 49ers to 17 points. And the Steelers will struggle on the offense. First of all, the injuries: WR Santonio Holmes is a big loss for this game, due to extra football motives. And if we add the fact RB Willie Parker is doubtful for this game, the Steelers will have problems in their offense this week. The blitzing DL of the Giants will cause a lot of problems to the Steelers and their way of attacking the pass rush is very similar to the one the Eagles use and if you remember earlier in the season, the Eagles defense rocked Ben Roethlisberger for eight sacks. The Giants are the 2nd team of the league with most sacks this season: 21! And the best of the league on that stat is the... Steelers with 25!

So, I predict both teams to have problems on their offense on this week and I expect an hard game in a low scoring affair in here. This will be the first big test of the Giants this season and the Under is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Unless, some weird stuff happens on the field, this will be a low scoring game. Take the under in here.

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Dr. Bob

BALTIMORE (-7.0) 21 Oakland 13

Oakland applies to a negative 80-138-6 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset overtime win over the Jets, but I’m not thrilled about the idea of taking a Baltimore team that is showing cracks in the secondary and doesn’t have an offense good enough to trust laying a big number. The Ravens have averaged just 4.6 yards per play this season and they rate at 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Raiders’ defense has been good in a few games and horrible in a few other and they allowed 418 yards at 5.9 yppl in last week’s 16-13 win over the Jets. Oakland rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season, but they’ve had more success in games when they’ve blitzed more often and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has stated his intentions of coming after the Ravens’ rookie QB. Oakland’s run-oriented attack won’t have much success on the ground against Baltimore’s dominating defensive front (3.0 ypr allowed), so it will be up to JaMarcus Russell to lead the team down the field with his big, but inaccurate, arm going up against a suddenly vulnerable Baltimore secondary that hasn’t been nearly as good in 4 games without star CB Samari Rolle (allowed 7.0 yards per pass play in those 4 games to teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team). The other star CB Chris McAlister is in coach Harbaugh’s doghouse and didn’t start last week when the Ravens allowed Miami to throw for 8.0 yppp. McAlister probably won’t start again this week, so Russell should have decent success throwing the ball in this game and he is much more careful with his passes (just 2 interceptions) and Flacco has been (7 picks). My math model favors Baltimore by just 5 points, but I’ll lean slightly with the Ravens at -7 or less based on the situation.

Kansas City vs. NY JETS (-13.0)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


MIAMI 23 Buffalo (-1.0) 21

Buffalo isn’t as good as their 5-1 record indicates, rating at average offensively (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense, and the Bills apply to a negative 79-146-9 ATS road letdown situation today in addition to a 124-195-16 ATS statistical profile indicator. Miami has emerged as a very good offensive team since playing poorly on that side of the ball the first two games of the season and the Dolphins are now 0.5 yppl better than average on offense for the season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Miami’s defense has been inconsistent and the Dolphins are at 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season, but they aren’t that much worse than the Bills overall from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo is once again among the best teams in the league in special teams and my math model favors the Bills by 2 ½ points, but I’ll lean with Miami based on the situation.


St. Louis vs. NEW ENGLAND (-7.0)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


New Orleans 27 San Diego (-3.0) 26 (at London)

This game is being played in London and should be a much more entertaining contest than last year’s low scoring, muddy affair between the Giants and the winless Dolphins. Both of these teams are equally great offensively, as the Saints have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Saints have been better defensively so far this season. New Orleans was shaky defensively the first 3 games of the season but they’ve tightened up the last 4 games and now rate at average for the season on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a poor defensive game in Buffalo (6.4 yppl allowed) and they’ve given up 5.5 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). The loss of Reggie Bush doesn’t hurt the offense at all, but he’s been worth almost 3 points per game with his punt returns, 3 of which have gone for touchdowns, and San Diego now has the special teams edge in this game with New Orleans continuing to suffer with their place kicking. My math model favors New Orleans by ½ a point, so I like the Saints plus the points in this one and I'll favor the Over.


Washington (-7.5) 23 DETROIT 16

Detroit has covered the spread in consecutive weeks with the situational analysis in their favor, but the Lions are still a horrible team and my math model favors the Redskins by 11 ½ points in this game. The Lions are once again in a pretty good situation – qualifying in a 77-27-1 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5 game or more losing streak. I’ll have to lean slightly with Detroit at +7 ½ or more based on that angle.


PHILADELPHIA (-9.0) 28 Atlanta 17

Atlanta has been surprisingly good offensively with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at the controls (5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Falcons are bad defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team) and have been blown out in two of their three road games. Philadelphia rates at 0.7 yppl better than average offensively and Donavan McNabb should have a big day throwing against a bad Falcons’ secondary, and the Eagles are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors Philly by 11 ½ points and I have no reason to vary from that projection.


DALLAS (-2.0) 23 Tampa Bay 21

Dallas applies to a very good 35-8-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s blowout loss in St. Louis and the Cowboys also apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator that is based on their poor spread performance so far this season (2-5 ATS). The problem with playing on the Cowboys in a good technical spot is the fact that they are not nearly as good as Tampa Bay with Brad Johnson at quarterback in place of the injured Tony Romo. I do expect Johnson to be a better than average quarterback given his talent at receiver, although he didn’t show it last week, but he’s not going to be nearly as good as Romo, who was averaging over 8 yards per pass play. Dallas does have a good rushing attack and they I still rate the Cowboys’ offense at 0.4 yards per play better than average with Johnson at quarterback, but the Buccaneers are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. The difference in this game is when the Bucs have the ball, as Tampa is 0.3 yppl better than average with Jeff Garcia at quarterback (and he doesn’t throw nearly as many interceptions at Brian Griese does) while Dallas has been just average defensively this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and are worse without top defensive back Pacman Jones, who has been suspended. Jones broke up 6 passes in 6 games and nobody else on the team has more than 2 passes defended. Jones’ impact was felt last week, as a weak St. Louis offense racked up 5.9 yppl. I rate the Cowboys at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively without Jones and my math model favors the Bucs by 4 points in this game with current personnel. With the math going one way and the technical analysis going strongly the other way, I will pass on this game.


CAROLINA (-4.0) 23 Arizona 19

Carolina and Arizona are two good teams and the Cardinals are back at full strength offensively with WR Anquan Boldin returning after missing two games with a concussion. Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner was 1.5 yards per pass play better than average in 4 games with Boldin and just 0.5 yppp better than average in two games without him. I rate Arizona’s offense at 0.7 yards per play better than average heading into this game and that unit will be challenged by a good Panthers’ defense that is 0.8 yppl better than average. Carolina’s offense has improved since star WR Steve Smith joined the lineup in week 3 after missing the first two games due to a suspension, and that unit rates at 0.2 yppl better than average. Arizona struggled defensively in weeks 4 and 5 with star safety Adrian Wilson out, but he returned for their upset win over the Cowboys and I rate the Cardinals’ stop unit at 0.1 yppl better than average with Wilson back. These teams match up pretty evenly from the line of scrimmage, but my math model favors the Panthers by 5 ½ points in this game. I don’t like laying points with Carolina, as the Panthers are just 10-19-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under coach John Fox, including 7-19-1 ATS if they are not coming off a bye week. I’ll pass.


JACKSONVILLE (-7.0) 25 Cleveland 16

Jacksonville’s 3 losses this season have come to Tennessee, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, who are a combined 16-2 straight up. However, the Jaguars haven’t exactly been winning convincingly when they have won, as their average margin of victory in their 3 wins is just 4 points. The Jaguars still have the reputation of being a good team, but that is simply not the case so far this season. Jacksonville has averaged just 5.1 yppl on offense (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 5.9 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Those are not good numbers and Cleveland is certainly capable of competing in this game. The Browns’ offense has really struggled in 5 of their 6 games, but they’ve also faced the toughest schedule of defensive teams in the league – a group of teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average team. Cleveland has averaged 4.4 yppl, so they really haven’t been much worse than average – although their average is skewed a bit by only great offensive game (8.1 yppl against the Giants). Cleveland’s defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, but that’s better than the Jaguars’ offensive rating. My math model sees these teams as about the same and favors the Jaguars by just 3 points. I’m still going to back the Jags in this game on the basis of a 46-13-4 ATS subset of a 219-128-16 ATS statistical indicator. That’s one of my favorite angles, so it’s too bad the line is too high for me to play it.


Cincinnati vs. HOUSTON (-9.5)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


PITTSBURGH (-2.5) 21 NY Giants 16

This game will be a good test for both teams and the Steelers’ defense gives them the advantage. Pittsburgh has been tremendous defensively this season, allowing just 3.7 yards per play (and no more than 4.2 yppl in any one game) to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive unit. As good as New York’s offense has been (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), it has not been nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers’ offense has been nothing special in averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and the Giants have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). This game appears to be pretty even from a yards per play perspective, but my math model favors the Steelers by 5 ½ points.


SAN FRANCISCO (-5.0) 23 Seattle 16

Seattle is a horrible team that has averaged just 4.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.7 yppl on defense. The Seahawks are even worse with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck out and they were out-played 4.9 yppl to 5.8 yppl with Hasselbeck in a week 2 home loss to the Niners. San Francisco is better than their 2-5 record, as the Niners have out-gained their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.2 yppl. San Francisco even out-played the Giants last week (5.1 yppl to 4.6 yppl), but their -3 in turnover margin led to a defeat. San Francisco is likely to be negative in turnovers with reckless J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback (10 interceptions in 7 games), but it’s just bad luck that the Niners are -6 in fumbles. My math model favors the 49ers by 12 ½ points in this game, but Seattle applies to a very strong 48-9-1 ATS subset of a 75-21-4 ATS situation that makes it tough for me to play this game either way. I’m going to lean slightly with San Francisco under new coach Mike Singletary.


TENNESSEE (-4.0) 23 Indianapolis 16

I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated. The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the pre-season and was obviously rusty). Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and good against the pass and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

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