NFL Total thoughts week 8

NFL Total thoughts week 8

Thought I would throw out some thoughts early this week. Last week was unreal and unusual. Hit all of the totals 4-0 posted (and missed all the sides 0-5 not posted).

SD @ london v. NO +3, 46
I like the UNDER in England.
I understand what you are saying and thinking, the NFL wants a shootout to get fans exited...
I saw the same posts last year with Giants and Fins, SHOOTOUT was the word of the day.

UNDER for three reasons.
1- Both of these teams must win. Defense wins ball games. NFL agenda aside, the team agenda and the owners agenda is to make the playoffs. NO is in the bottom of the tough NFC South (2 games back), while SD is a game back of Denver  in a softer conference, they still have a tough schedule (@Pit, Ind, Atl, @ Tampa, Den). Already lost 4 and can't go 8-8 with little chance of a wild card.

2- Soccer pitches suck as football fields. The English have a different kind of grass that doesn't hold up to the size/weight/cleat of the average NFL layer, much less the linemen. It is going to rain.... its England. NO likes turf and dome while SD is from....you know.

3- Europeans are used to "football" being a low scoring affair (2-0, 2-1, 4-2 whoa a blowout) Look for a game with well mixed plays favoring the ground and some turnovers. Look for the teams to exploit the others weakness, both are weak against the run (100+ y/g). NO has a slight advantage defending the pass only allowing their opponents 55% pass completion. Both teams like to give the ball away NO-13 SD-10. And no Reggie who is worth at least three points on the total.

If you like the over you should wait till right before the game. The early sharps hit the under dropping it from 46-45 in places. I expect this trend to continue.

I like the UNDER myself. Good luck guys

Ari +4 @ CAR 43

Everybody likes the Panthers at home after the ass-kicking they handed ATL, TB, CHI and more recently NO. 64% of bets/picks are on CAR but the line has moved a half point toward CAR indicating some $$$ on ARI. This leads me to believe that this game will probably not be a rout and if both teams who are starting to click: CAR off a division rivalry blowout; and ARI of two great home stands (Buffalo and Dallas OT) and most recently a bye week to get back Boldin, there is a potential for some points. I am aware that the west doesn't come out to the east and play well in the early games so Carolina will probably cover, but I would keep an eye on the line movement.

OVER 43

More to come, and as always please share your thoughts.

Cheers,
Dr Jake

jmaydc
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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 8

Oak +9 @ Balt, 36

This game should be a defensive struggle, however a classic Jeckle and Hyde may appear. New HC CAble has ahd a few games to shape up this team and I expect the offense to finally start scoring. We all know that Flacco can score especially against overrated defenses. Both of these defenses are overrated and sloppy. The early money moved the line up from 35 to 36. I still think this is enough under the key numbers 38 and 40. Oak will probalbly cover do to the fact that 77% of public/bets are on Baltimore. Over is 9-2 in BAL last 11 games on grass. Over is 9-3 in BAL last 12 vs. AFC. Over is 7-3 in OAK last 10 games on grass.

OVER 36 (Oak 16 - Balt 24)

Buf -1 @ MIA 42
THis is a line that is off. Heavy money and percentage of bets are on Buffalo but the number has not budged and even moved to pick'em on one book. This resembles the Oak/nyj game last week and the buf/ari two weeks before. Reverse line movement has me wondering if this game won't also stay close, being one by a field goal late in the game. I think it is another field postition game. Weather is showing 60% chance of rain and some mild wind (NE 8mph). The wild cat offense is loosing its luster and BUF got back some key defensive players.

UNDER 42 (buf 17 mia 19)

Leans:
TB/Dal UNDER 41
Stl/NE OVER 43
CLe/jax OVER 42
NYG/PIT UNDER 42

Cheers,
Dr Jake

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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 8

I noticed you stayed off the total at Philadelphia.
45.5 is the highest total this year on Atlanta, and the highest total for the Eagles at home. The Falcon pass defense is ranked 26th and McNabb gets all his receivers back. Also when both teams are coming off a bye, the over is 2-0 this year.

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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 8

Yeah..3-1...Those trends acred me but I was thinking all of the NFC east was going under and they did. I couldn't trust detroit or atlanta to not fold on defense however. Those two teams screw me over.

Congrats two all who picked the over on the exhibition game in England.

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