Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

JB's Computer Picks

Tampa Bay Rays -150

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

New Mexico +5 at AIR FORCE

Its pretty easy to look over the past history of this series and see Air Force has covered 4 straight meetings. However, before you go jumping on the home team's bandwagon, you have to consider the strides the Lobos have made over the their last 4 games...

Starting with a nice win and cover at New Mexico State, the Lobos have really put it together over their last 4 games, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. Many point to their 70-7 destruction of San Diego State last week as a reason to back New Mexico here, but that's not why I'm doing it. We know the Lobos can run the ball behind RB Rodney Ferguson, but what's been most impressive of late is their defense, allowing 9 ppg on 269 total yards over their last 3 games! Its the improved play of their stop-unit (held explosive BYU to 21 points at home), that makes all the difference in this one.

Another fact most bettors might not know about the Lobos is despite averaging less overall rushing yards per game than Air Force (223 vs 300), New Mexico averages far more yards per carry (5.8 yards/carry vs 4.6 yards/carry). This is significant, in that, the Falcons defense will have a hard time stopping such an efficient rushing attack... Just like they did in last season's 34-31 loss at New Mexico, where Rodney Ferguson rushed for 146 yards and 2 TDs!

Finally, many are concerned about the Lobos short week of prep time versus Air Force's vaunted option offense, but let me be the one to tell you: don't be. Coach Long is well-versed in defending the option, and in fact, has allowed just under 300 yards per game in their last 2 meetings with Air Force. In the end, I don't see more than field goal separating these two run-based squads, so the play here rests squarely on the Lobos.

Take New Mexico plus the points over Air Force in this college foobtall match up.

2♦ NEW MEXICO

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

New Mexico +5 at AIR FORCE

Take the points with New Mexico tonight when they visit Air Force.

The Lobos destroyed San Diego State 70-7 on Saturday, and while they won’t put up that many points tonight, I do expect some of that momentum to carry over into this game.

Air Force runs that dreaded triple-option, but New Mexico’s running game isn’t too shabby. The Lobos rank 15th in the nation with 224 rushing ypg, and they average an eye-popping 5.8 yards per rush.

New Mexico is also on ATS runs of 5-0 on grass, 4-1 in conference play, 19-9-2 on the road and 18-8 as a visiting dog.

Air Force has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 when coming off a non-cover, and they are also just 1-6 the week before taking on Army.

Take the points with New Mexico as they keep it within the number on the road.

3♦ NEW MEXICO

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on New Mexico +5

Air Force is far from invincible at home having lost a pair of games there already this season to Navy and Utah .  Air Force may have blown out San Diego State 35-10 this season, but New Mexico beat the Aztecs 70-7.  This is a very explosive New Mexico offense which the Falcons will not be able to stop.  New Mexico has covered the spread in 4 straight games and the books still aren't giving the Lobos the respect they deserve knowing that the betting public is all over the Falcons at home.  The Lobos are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 road games period.  We'll take the points tonight.


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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Nostradamus

MLB-Tampa Bay -150
CFB-Auburn +3.5
CFB-NM/AF Under 45.5
NHL-Pittsburgh -150
NHL-Buffalo +110
NHL-Washington -110

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Auburn at W. Virginia
Pick: Auburn +3

The Mountaineers were supposed to contend for a National Title contender this season, with Pat White and Noel Devine spearheading a big offense. After back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Colorado, those hopes went down the drain. They have since won three straight, but this team remains 1-4 ATS on the season. While last year's Mountaineers offense produced 28+ points in 11 of 13 games, this year's version has yet to put up 28+ against any Division I teams. The concern intensifies when you realize that they have played against average defenses (their opponents own an average defensive rank of 75th out of 120 teams). The problem is White does not have the receivers to throw down field. Not a single reciever is averaging over 10 yards per catch. Teams know they can stack the line, stop the run, and get a win. The Tigers have struggled offensively themselves, but unlike West Virginia, Auburn has played some excellent teams (Mississippi State, LSU, Tennessee and Vandy). Despite the schedule and having to face those caliber teams, the Tigers have been in every game. They lost by 5 to LSU, representing their largest margin of defeat of the season! If West Virginia can't move the ball on poor defensive teams, they will certainly struggle against the Tigers' 14th ranked stop unit. Live dog here!


Buffalo at Minnesota
Pick: UNDER 5.5

Both of these teams are sizzling hot to start the season as they both enter this game unbeaten. The Sabres are getting exceptional goaltending from both netminders as Ryan Miller and Patrick Lalime have both sparkled behind the net. The Sabres are allowing just 1.67 goals per game through their first six, so it is easy to see why they are without a loss. The Wild have been equally as good defensively with Niklas Backstrom allowing just 2.25 goals per game. This one appears to be won on the defensive side with 5.5 goals looking like great value here as neither team has allowed more than three goals yet on the season, and this one appears to play like a 3-2, 2-1 type game. I will back the UNDER here.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

3 Units - Oilers/Avalanche Over 5.5

2 Units - New Mexico +5.5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

New Mexico vs. Air Force
Play: OVER 45

I thought this line should have been at least 48-50 so we will jump on the OVER as 45 is too low for these talented offensive teams. Air Force is scoring 30.3 ppg at home this season while allowing 23.3 for an average total of 53.6. New Mexico is scoring 17.3 ppg on the road while allowing 33.7 for an average total of 51. And I expect New Mexico to score more than 17 points on the road here as games against good BYU and Tulsa teams have distorted these numbers. In fact, 5 of the last 7 matchups between these two teams have gone OVER the number. Air Force is 7-0 OVER after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons, with the score totaling 60.3 ppg in these spots. These two teams combined for 65 points last October and I expect them to come in OVER the total again here. 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Game: Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Minnesota Wild

Both teams are off to terrific starts. The Sabres are 5-1 while the Wild are 4-0. With this game being played in Minnesota, the Wild have an excellent shot at keeping their undefeated streak in tact. Dating back to last spring, the Wild have won eight of their past 10 games here. They've been extremely solid here for the past several seasons and should prove tough to beat here once again this year. With the total still at 5.5 at most shops, it's worth noting that the Wild are a profitable 20-8 the past 28 times they played a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. These teams met only once last season and the Wild came away with a 5-1 victory. Including that result, the Sabres are a money-burning 97-110 (-28.1) their last 207 non-conference games. Conversely, the Wild are a profitable 96-75 (+29.8) in non-conference play. Consider Minnesota

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Scott Spreitzer

Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays

I'm playing the Over in Thursday's game two with Myers taking on Shields. The Rays were excellent in home games against righties this season scoring over 5.1 runs per game, while the Phils were a healthy road team against righthanders scoring about 4.5 runs per contest. In fact, Philly finished above .500 in this situation. Myers had his issues away from home this season, while Shields has seen five of his last nine starts finish with a combined 10 runs or more. After 14 base runners were left on base last night (11 by the Phillies) look for plenty of runs in game two. I'm playing the Over between Myers & Shields on Thursday night. Play on: Over

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Auburn at West Virginia

West Virginia has gone Under in every lined game this season. However, the last two times they have been coming off BB ATS losses where they still won SU as a favorite, they went Over both times. Since 1992, the Mountaineers they are 10-2 Over when playing teams with a winning percentage between .510 and .600. This number is way too low when you consider that last month they faced numbers of 53.5 and 57. Auburn is coming off a game where 47 points were scored.

Play on: Over

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matt Foust

New Mexico @ Air Force Over 45

The Air Force Falcons will host the New Mexico Lobos tonight at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The two Mountain West foes will do battle coming off of short rest and conference victories. We are going with the over 45 in what will be a ground oriented slug fest.

The Air Force Falcons have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, averaging 300 yards per game on the ground. Despite their ball control style of play, the Falcons frequently take part in games that get over the total. This season, the over is 4-2 when Air Force has played an FBS school. The game total has been at or over 45 in all of their FBS games with the exception of a 23-3 victory at Wyoming (the Cowboys offense would have difficulty scoring on the Little Sisters of the Poor).

New Mexico, like Air Force, tends to keep things on the ground. They sport a 25.9 point per game average and average 223.1 yards per game on the ground. The over is 5-3 this year in Lobos games, the low totals coming against TCU, BYU, and Wyoming. New Mexico had difficulty moving the ball against the stout defenses of TCU and BYU and they blanked Wyoming 24-0.

Both of these teams feature pretty sound defenses but they are not shut down units. The Falcons triple option attack has been clicking really well this season with freshman quarterback Tim Jefferson running things for Troy Calhoun. New Mexico will have difficulty preparing for what Air Force does given the short rest and the Falcons should be able to move the ball on the ground, especially against an occasionally overly aggressive Lobos front. Look for Air Force to throw in some play action as well as New Mexico has been exploited through the air most of the season (240.8 passing yards per game allowed). Conversely, the Lobos will do some scoring of their own on the Falcons. Lobos’ tailback Rodney Ferguson is the Mountain West’s leading rusher, averaging 108.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. He will get his share and so will New Mexico as I look for them to at least hit their season average of 26 per game.

Things to consider: The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these two teams. The Over is 4-2 the last five years when the Lobos played as a road dog coming off a game that went over the total. The Over is 7-3 in the Lobos last 10 games as a road dog in the month of October.

Take Over 45 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

LT Profits

Minnesota Wild -125

This is an intriguing non-conference battle between two teams that have yet to lose a game in regulation time this season, as the perfect 4-0 Minnesota Wild host the just about perfect 5-0-1 Buffalo Sabres.

What makes the Wild record more impressive is the fact that they have not played at home since opening night, as they just swept a three-game southeastern road trip, beating the Atlanta Thrashers, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning. This is certainly an encouraging sign for a team that struggled on the road last year.

The Wild are winning with their trapping defense as usual, allowing just 1.75 goals per game to this point. Niklas Backstrom has been fantastic between the pipes, with a sparkling 1.72 GAA and a very nice save percentage of 94.2 percent.

Now granted, the Sabres are allowing just 1.50 goals per game themselves, but they suffered a key blow when defenseman and Captain Craig Rivet went down with a knee injury vs. the Bruins last game. He earned his status as team captain by being the best defenseman on the Sabres back line, and his loss becomes more magnified in what could very well become a defensive struggle here.

With that said, look for the Wild to sneak a few pucks in the net en route to a nice home win.

Pick: Wild -125

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