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THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

has anyone seen dr. bob, big all, indain cowboy, maddox thursday plays or weekend plays?

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Brian King

Thursday Night Guaranteed College Football Lock of the Month

Auburn (38) at West Virginia (-3)

West Virginia will be in what might seem to be the favorable position of playing their fourth straight home game. Well, the fact of the matter is that playing so much at home may lead to some complacency. Just look at this angle, teams playing their fourth straight home game that have won their previous three games against FBS opponents are 8-22 SU, 26.7% in the fourth home game.

If we can expect a complacent performance from WV that is not encouraging. This years Mountaineer offense has not looked anything like the Rich Rodriguez squads of years past. Auburn has looked horrible offensively but their defense is limiting the opposition to 13 points per game and they match up well against WV's spread option.

Coming off a bye week Tommy Tuberville is sure to have tweaked his offense and speedy defense. This is an SEC defense and they definitely have the edge on speed. They will contain this already mediocre West Virginia offense tonight even with Pat White back in the lineup.

Auburn is 6-1 SU on Thursday nights. The defensive coordinator at Auburn was with Pitt as the DC last year and held WV to 183 yards in their annual rivalry game. Both of these teams struggle to score offensively and with the defensive edge clearly going to Auburn expect them to at least keep this game within a point or two. Take the points with Auburn Thursday night and cash in. My official prediction Auburn 20 WV 13 but we will take the points in this one.

Auburn (+3) 100 Dimes

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Highprofitsports

3* Auburn
2* Air Force/New Mexico Over

3* Rays

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Root

Chairman- West Virgina
Millionaire- Phils/Rays Under

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SPYLOCK

1 unit Air Force

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Bob Akmens

10* Rays

Nashville Predators

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Seabass

50* Auburn/ West Virg Over 38
30* Auburn
20* Air Force

100* Vegas Steam  New Mexico/Air Force Under 45

50* TB/Philly Over
20* TB -1.5
20* Philly on the money line Yes that's correct  ???

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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT

WEST VIRGINIA -3

Pat White will be back tonight and word is he has looked awesome in practice. It's no secret that WV needs to open up the offense and they have been preaching it. Auburn offense is sluggish at best and though they have a very good defense, injuries are abound on the line and in the secondary. We might be looking at some smoke and mirrors here as far as Auburns defense as you have to ask yourself, what offense have they faced that is a high output offense. Only Arkansas comes to mind and that's stretching it but you saw what Arkansas was able to do against Auburn. WV defense is very under rated and should do well against a Auburn Qb who just forces too many plays opening the door for some INT's tonight. Take the small line with this home Fave.

NEW MEXICO +5.5

Air Force is playing this game on a short week. We love these under the radar teams. Record doesn’t do New Mexico justice as their first four games were very tough. They did beat Arizona who just knocked the socks off of California, so maybe that early schedule has helped New Mexico as they have already taken their hardest hits other than Utah left on the schedule. Air force is now 3-9 on Thursday Night TV.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

We did it right going with Philly last night as we expected a letdown after Tampa just got done with a battle with Boston. Bats were stale and they were facing a lefty. It all changes tonight as we feel confident, the bats swing back to form as TB got a dose of reality last night. Let’s remember they have the best home record in the league but nothing is going to given to them and they found that out last night. Tampa gets what they want tonight in a right handed pitcher where they have feasted and throw in Brett Myers is 3-8 in 16 road starts with a 6.21 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and .301 BAA. Philly went 5-11 in those 16 road games. Shields is a terror at home recording a 9-2 record this season at home in the dome as Tampa Bay went 14-3 all total in those games. Take the Rays to even it up


DALLAS -120 (NHL)

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LENNY STEVENS

10* PHILLIES

PASSING FOOTBALL

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Lenny Del Genio

25* World Series Game of the YEAR

Play on Tampa Bay

As predicted here, the Phillies got the road win they needed in Game One behind ace Cole Hamels, but asking them to win back-to-back games against the best home team in the majors is too much. Tonight, they have Brett Myers, not Cole Hamels, on the hill. Philadelphia has lost 11 of Myers� 16 road starts this season and his ERA outside the City of the Brotherly Love is a pitiful 6.21. Rays� Game 2 starter James Shields, on the other hand, has been sensational at home this year. Tampa Bay has won 14 of his 17 starts at Tropicana Field. And while the Rays offense struggles vs. lefties (as noted yesterday), they demolish righties to the tune of 5.1 runs/per game. After scoring two runs or less this season, the Rays are 33-12 in their next game. Tampa Bay is our 25* World Series Game of the Year.

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The King Maker

1-Unit New Mexico +5

1-Unit New Mexico Over 20

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Donn Wagner

3* Auburn
3* Auburn/W Virginia Under

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ASA

3-STAR Auburn (+3) over West Virginia

Many are down on Auburn and we’re not enamored with their offense, however this is a solid spot to jump on them as a dog. This is only the second time this year that the Tigers are coming into a game and not expected to win. Tommy Tuberville has historically thrived as an underdog racking up a 14-5 ATS record when getting points going back to the beginning of the 2002 season. The Tigers lost their only game in the underdog role this year when LSU scored a come from behind TD with just 1:00 minute left in the game to grab a 26-21 win as a 2-point favorite. These two teams have scared bettors away with their combined 2-10 spread record. However, Auburn is the better team in our opinion despite the fact they have struggled on offense and lost 3 of their last 4 games. First of all, the Tigers are much better and faster on defense. They have a stop unit that matches up very well against the spread option attack that West Virginia runs. They also have a coordinator that knows how to beat it. First year Auburn defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads actually held the same position for the last eight seasons at Pitt. And why is that significant? First of all because he’s coached against the WVU offense for the previous eight years as the Panthers DC. Secondly, he took Pitt to Morgantown last year and held a prolific Mountaineer offense to just 9 points and 183 total yards in last year’s huge Pitt 13-9 upset. That was a West Virginia offense that averaged 39 PPG and 450 total yards per game. This year’s version is MUCH more pedestrian putting up just 22 PPG and 342 YPG on offense. Rhoads has a significantly better defense to work with this year and he is facing an offense that is nowhere near as potent as last year. The Auburn defense should do well in this one. WVU QB Pat White is back in the line up for this game, however he didn’t have the Neer’s really clicking on offense when he was on the field. He’s struggled to move the ball for much of the season averaging just 17 PPG their last five games. Now he faces the best defense he has seen BY FAR this year. In fact, of the five Division 1A teams that West Virginia has faced this year, the highest ranked defense they have seen is Rutgers who is 42nd nationally. Auburn is in the top 15 in yards allowed and the top 10 in points allowed at just 13 PPG. To say the Auburn offense has struggled is definitely an understatement. However, they have now had two weeks since the firing of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin to tweak the offense to their liking. They have also nearly two weeks off since their last game to attempt to get the offense rolling. Franklin implemented the spread however, look for Auburn to go back to their bread and butter which is the running attack. They have two solid RB’s in Ben Tate and Brad Lester and they have been under utilized this year. Not anymore. Auburn has played the tougher schedule and is from the much better conference. We’ll take a great defense from the SEC as an underdog against a team from the weak Big East. Auburn rights the ship and gets back in the winning column on Thursday night.

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Robert Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-150)
1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-1.5, +125)

1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

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DOC'S

3 Unit Play. Take Over in Auburn @ West Virginia

Granted Auburn has no offense but the West Virginia defense should allow them to score 20 plus points as this battle in Morgantown takes place. QB White is probable for this game and he is the main component of what makes this West Virginia team tick. The Mountaineers have won three straight games and averaged 23 points per game during this span. Any number is the thirties is too low for college football considering that the clock still stops on first downs and the spread offense of the Mountaineers will make for a four hour game and we will not worry if they can cover the spread and just collect on the over.

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SEAN HIGGS

THURSDAY GAME OF MONTH

We are backing the Mountaineers. West Va gets the call here. Pat White will be backed and pumped up for this ESPN clash vs the SEC. West Va's 3-3-5 D will cause problems for whoever is taking snaps for the Tigers. Auburn off terrible to Arkansas. While Mountaineers struggled at SU, at least they had reason with their QB out. No such problems here as the Big East shows some fire. Tigers have fired their OC, I expect it will take some time for the new style to be felt. West Va Thursday Night Game of the Month

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BEN BURNS

I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. I passed on yesterday's opener. I really didn't want to play against Cole Hamels but I also respected Kazmir and didn't want to play against the Rays in this park. Tonight's matchup is significantly more favorable for the Rays. Myers goes for the Phillies and he's been inconsistent enough that he was sent to the minors during the summer. To his credit, Myers has been much better since his stint to the minors. Still, he wasn't sharp his last time out, allowing five runs in five innings vs. the Dodgers. That was way back on 10/10 too, meaning that he's out of his normal routine. His last road start was more than a month ago (9/19 at Fla) and he allowed 10 runs in four innings. Including that debacle, he was just 3-8 with a 6.21 ERA on the road. Those type of disastrous outings rarely/never happen to Shields here in St. Petersburg. In fact, if we look at his last 20 starts here we find that he allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of them and that he didn't allow more than five earned runs in any of them. Overall, he was 9-2 with an outstanding 2.59 ERA and 1.04 WHIP here. The Rays know this is essentially a "must win" game as no team has rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the World Series since the Yankees did so in 1996. They've been an extremely resilient team all season and I look for them to bounce back and even up the series. *Annihilator


I'm playing on New Mexico and Air Force to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their most recent game finish above the total. Those results have helped keep this evening's over/under line generously high. Last week's results notwithstanding, both these defenses have been excellent in conference play. The Falcons are allowing 19.9 points overall and just 17.7 in conference play. In three home games, they're surrendering a mere 271.3 yards per game. While the Lobos are giving up 23.7 points per game overall, after limiting the Aztecs to just seven points last week, they're allowing an average of only 13.5 points (275 yards) in their conference games. Not surprisingly, three of those four games stayed below the total. Prior to last week's dominant performance, the Lobos held a powerful BYU team to only 21 after shutting out Wyoming the previous weeks. That means they are only allowing 9.3 points over their last three games. While the Lobos admittedly haven't had much time to prepare for Air Forces' unique attack, it should be noted that this defense is arguably the fastest in Long's tenure as coach here and that overall speed on the defensive side of the ball can compensate for an awful lot. A look at last year's meeting shows that the final was 34-31 in favor of the Lobos. However, that score was somewhat deceiving as New Mexico was given "easy points" when the Falcons turned the ball over five times inside their own 30-yard line. Meanwhile, Air Force got it's first touchdown after New Mexico fumbled on its own 14 yard line. A closer look shows that neither team racked up the type of yardage that you'd normally find with a game that produced 65 combined points. Air Force had only 322 total yards while New Mexico had just 325. Note that the previous meeting, which was here at Air Force in 2006, saw the teams manage just 273 and 281 total yards. The final score of 24-7 stayed well beneath the number. Looking at some over/under stats and we find that the UNDER is a perfect 3-0 the last three times that the Lobos were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The UNDER is also 5-2 the past seven times that New Mexico played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 49. During the same stretch, the UNDER was 4-1 when Air Force had played a home game with a total in the same range. Look for this evening's final score to prove lower-scoring with the UNDER improving to 10-5 the last 15 times that the Falcons played a home game in October. *MWC TOY


I'm playing on West Virginia and Auburn to finish OVER the total. It's true that both these teams have played well defensively while struggling offensively. That's why most are expecting a defensive battle and why the over/under number is so low. West Virginia is averaging 22 points while Auburn has managed just 19. I believe that both teams are more than capable of putting up points though and that the low number is providing us with excellent value. The Mountaineers didn't have star QB Patrick White in the lineup in their last game (vs. Syracuse) and struggled to find the end zone. However, White played in the previous two games (although he was knocked out of each) and the Mountaineers scored 24 and 27 points. White will be back in the lineup here. Coach Stewart was quoted as saying: "Pat has done very well and he's performing well. He was running around last night and he was cheering them (teammates) on as only Pat can do. He said he liked it and said that was the way we should practice and play. It was very fun and he's ready and raring to go." While the team has struggled adjusting to the change in offensive philosophy, let's not forget that White led a Mountaineers' offense that averaged more than 40 points per game last season. It should also be noted that he has shown a tendency to shine when playing on national television. The Tigers struggled last game and were upset by Arkansas. They still scored 22 points though. The problem was that they allowed 25. The normally stout Auburn defense allowed the Razorbacks to compile a whopping 417 yards of total offense. This season's struggles notwithstanding, White and the Mountaineers bring a significantly more explosive offense to the table. In this evening's other game (New Mexico/AF) both teams are playing on short rest, having just played last Saturday. However, in this game, neither team has played since the previous Saturday, which was way back on October 11th. I expect the extra preparation time to benefit the offenses. Both coaches are under pressure to see their teams open up the playbook and score points. Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville is quickly falling out of favor and would love nothing more than to see his team put up some big numbers after he fired his offensive coordinator a couple of weeks ago. This will be the first time all season that sophomore Kodi Burns will be the Tigers' clear No. 1 quarterback (former coordinator Franklin favored Chris Todd) and I expect that to help his confidence and for him to have a solid game. Meanwhile, Bill Stewart has seen the fans boo the Mountaineers' offensive play calling. Therefore, it's no surprise that word coming out of the Mountaineers' camp this week suggests that the offense will be more open than it has been in the past. With White's healthy return, West Virginia is expected to throw the ball more often, especially down the field in an effort to loosen up the Tigers' run defense. While the Mountaineers have seen the OVER go 4-2 their last six games against teams from the SEC, the Tigers have seen the OVER go 3-0 their last three games against teams from the Big East. Both teams have also seen the OVER go 4-2 their last six Thursday games and I look for tonight's contest to also find its way above the low number. *non-conference TOM

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Re: THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

JEFFERSONSPORTS

MINNESOTA -125

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Dr. Bob

Opinion

AIR FORCE (-5.0) 24 New Mexico 23

New Mexico took advantage of a depleted San Diego State defensive line and rolled up 419 yards on the ground at 6.7 yards per rushing play in a 70-7 win over the Aztecs. New Mexico is a pretty good team when they are able to run the ball a bit, as the Lobos have a few good running backs (they average 5.2 yprp for the season) and a solid defense that’s yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Air Force defends the run pretty well (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), but the Lobos are forecasted to run for close to 200 yards at 4.8 yprp in this game. The match-up that works best for New Mexico in this game is their very good run defense (3.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) going up against an Air Force option offense that runs the ball 80% of the time. New Falcons’ quarterback Tim Jefferson has been a considerable improvement over former starter Shea Smith, as Jefferson has averaged 11.4 yards per pass play on 22 pass plays (against teams that would allow 8.0 yppp to an average QB) while running for 5.8 yprp on 32 rushing plays (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp). Smith threw the ball pretty well (7.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp), but he averaged only 3.8 yprp on 60 rushing plays (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp). However, my math model favors Air Force by only 2 ½ points in this game even after adjusting for Air Force having Jefferson at quarterback. New Mexico also has a long history of playing well in the second half of the season under coach Rocky Long, whose teams are just 22-31-1 ATS since 1999 in games 1 through 6, but 38-15 ATS in regular season games from game 7 on, including an incredible 27-5 ATS when favored by less than 3 points or getting points. I’ll lean with New Mexico plus the points and I’d consider the Lobos a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

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