Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

SPORTS ADVISORS

(7) Oklahoma State (7-0, 6-0 ATS) at (1) Texas (7-0 SU and ATS)

The game of the day comes from Austin, where the top-ranked Longhorns play host to No. 7 Oklahoma State as Texas plays its third straight game against a Big 12 foe ranked in the Top 15.

Texas beat archrival and top-ranked Oklahoma 45-35 as a seven-point ‘dog two weeks ago in the Red River Shootout, then showed no signs of a letdown in last week’s 56-31 home rout of then-No. 11 Missouri as a four-point chalk. QB Colt McCoy, a Heisman Trophy candidate, threw for 337 yards and two TDs and also ran for two scores against Missouri last week as Texas racked up 591 total yards and held the Tigers to 348.

Versatile QB Zach Robinson (238 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, two passing TDs) led Oklahoma State to a 34-6 blowout win over Baylor a week ago, cashing as a 17-point home favorite. The Cowboys, who upset Missouri 28-23 as a 14-point underdog in their most recent road trip two weeks ago, are riding an eight-game winning streak dating back to last November (7-0 ATS).

Mack Brown’s Longhorns have owned Oklahoma State in this series, going 20-2 all-time and outscoring the Cowboys 407-218 in winning the last 10 in a row (7-3 ATS). Last season in Stillwater, Okla., Texas rallied from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit to score a miracle 38-35 comeback win, cashing as a 1½-point road favorite. The last time these two met in Austin, the Longhorns rolled to a 36-10 victory as an 18½-point favorite and outgained the Cowboys by 307 yards (510-203).

This matchup features two of the nation’s top four scoring offenses, as Texas is second at 48.1 points per game and the Cowboys are fourth at 46.4 ppg. Oklahoma State ranks seventh in total offense (501.4 total yards per game) and fifth in rushing offense (283.1 rushing ypg), while the Longhorns are 10th in total offense (484 ypg), including averaging 193.4 ypg on the ground.

Both offenses are driven by outstanding quarterbacks. McCoy is completing an astounding 81.2 percent of his throws for 270.6 ypg with 19 TDs and just three INTs, and he also has 371 rushing yards (5.3 yards per carry) and six TDs on the ground. Meanwhile, Robinson is connecting on 70 percent of his throws for 213 ypg, with 14 TDs and four INTs, to go with 249 rushing yards (3.4 per carry) and five additional scores.

Oklahoma State is on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 in Big 12 games, 6-1 in October, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-0 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Texas is on a slew of ATS runs, including 10-1 overall, 20-8 at home, 5-1 in conference play, 13-5 in October, 6-0 against teams with a winning record and 6-0 after a straight-up win.

The Cowboys have topped the total in 10 of their last 14 October games, but the under has been the play in their last six road contests. However, it’s been all “overs” for Texas lately, including 4-0 overall, 6-0 in Big 12 action, 25-10-1 after a straight-up win and 7-2 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the over has cashed in four of the last five series clashes between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER


(3) Penn State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at (10) Ohio State (7-1, 2-5 ATS)

The biggest game in the Big Ten this season takes place under the lights at the Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State will try to knock Penn State from the ranks of the unbeaten in a battle for sole possession of first place in the league standings.

The Buckeyes went to East Lansing, Mich., last week and walloped Michigan State 45-7 as a three-point road favorite, the team’s fifth straight victory since a 35-3 loss at then-No. 1 USC. Behind freshman QB Terrelle Pryor (116 passing yards, 72 rushing yards, 2 total TDs) and RB Beanie Wells (140 rushing yards, 2 TDs), Ohio State jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead and ended up with a 332-240 edge in total offense, including outrushing the Spartans 216-52.

Penn State played two totally different games against Michigan last week, coming out sluggish in the first half as it fell behind 17-7, only to outscore the Wolverines 39-0 the rest of the way en route to a 46-17 home victory. The Lions’ final score came on an 80-yard screen pass from backup QB Stephon Green to Pat Devlin, which allowed Penn State to miraculously cover a 24-point spread.

While the Buckeyes are riding a five-game winning streak, the Nittany Lions have won nine in a row (7-1 ATS in lined contests) dating to last year’s 24-17 Alamo Bowl victory over Texas A&M. However, Penn State hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent on the road since 2002.

Ohio State is on a 5-1 roll (4-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 37-17 shellacking of the Lions in Happy Valley as a three-point road chalk. The Buckeyes have covered nine of the last 13 head-to-head battles and have never lost to Penn State in Columbus since the Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993 (7-0 SU and ATS). Finally, the host is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the favorite has covered in seven of those contests.

Penn State, which outgained Michigan 482-291 last week, has now scored at least 45 points in six of its eight contests this season, and Joe Paterno’s squad ranks seventh nationally in scoring offense (45.4 ppg), 11th in total offense (482 ypg) and 10th in rushing offense (234.6 ypg). On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions are sixth in scoring defense (11.8 ppg allowed), eighth in total defense (263.3 ypg allowed) and 11th in passing defense (159.4 ypg allowed).

Ohio State, which had a season high in points last week, is averaging 27 points and 322 total yards per contest (182 rushing ypg), while surrendering 13.4 points and 265.4 total yards per outing (97.1 rushing ypg). In five home victories, those defensive numbers drop to 9.6 ppg, 241.8 total ypg and 76.4 rushing ypg.

Ohio State has followed up an 0-5 ATS slide by cashing in two of its last three games. However, the Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS at home this season (all as a favorite), and going back to last season they’ve failed to cover in five straight at the Horseshoe. On the bright side, they’re on a 19-7 ATS roll in Big Ten play (2-2 this year) and they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October outings.

In addition to their overall 7-1 ATS run, the Nittany Lions feature positive pointspread trends of 5-0-1 on the road and 11-4-1 in October, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in their last eight conference affairs (3-1 ATS this year).

The under is 3-1 in the last four clashes overall in this rivalry and 4-1 in the last five meetings at the Horseshoe, and the under is also 5-2 in the Buckeyes’ last seven games overall and 8-3 in their last 11 October outings. However, for Penn State, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten action and 4-1 in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE


Wake Forest (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (4-3, 2-4 ATS)

Wake Forest travels to South Beach for a date with the Hurricanes in an ACC showdown between two teams in desperate need of a victory.

The Demon Deacons are one of four teams tied atop the ACC’s Atlantic Division, despite only scoring one touchdown in three league games and averaging a league-low eight points per contest in conference play. Wake Forest was blanked at Maryland on Saturday 26-0, falling as a one-point ‘dog. Despite that result, the Deacons’ defense is still allowing just 12 points a game in conference action.

Miami has won two straight, including a 49-31 shootout victory at Duke last Saturday, cashing as a three-point road chalk. That snapped an 0-3 ATS drought for the Hurricanes, who have yet to cash in front of the home crowd this season. The Miami offense averages only 308 yards per game, and they use a tag-team at QB with Robert Marve (677 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs) and Jacory Harris (497 yards, 5 TDs, 3 three INTs).

These two haven’t met since 2005, when Miami went to Wake Forest and delivered a 47-17 whipping as a 16-point road chalk. In the Demon Deacons’ last trip to South Beach, they got whacked 52-7 as 18½-point road underdogs.

Wake Forest remains on ATS runs of 10-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 19-7 in October, 6-2 in ACC play, 15-5 against teams with a winning record and 9-0 following a non-cover. Conversely, Miami has been a disaster at the betting window, posting negative ATS trends of 10-22-1 overall, 12-31-1 at home, 5-15-1 in ACC play, 6-22 following an ATS win and 1-11 at home against a team with a winning road record.

For the Demon Deacons, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-2 in ACC games and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. The under is also 25-9 in Miami’s last 34 home games, but otherwise, the Hurricanes are on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in conference action and 8-2 against teams with a winning record.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST


(23) Boston College (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at North Carolina (5-2, 3-3 ATS)

Boston College guns for its fifth straight win – and third straight in ACC play – when it heads to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on the Tar Heels.

The Eagles scored a 28-23 victory over then-No. 17 Virginia Tech a week ago, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The victory avenged Boston College’s loss to the Hokies in last year’s ACC Championship game as it rallied from a 10-0 deficit and overcame two INT returns for touchdowns to get the win. The Eagles’ defense, which ranks fourth in the country in surrendering just 251 yards per contest, helped secure the victory, allowing Virginia Tech just 240 total yards (90 passing yards).

North Carolina had a three-game winning streak snapped in last week’s mistake-filled 16-13 overtime loss at Virginia as a 3½-point chalk. Junior QB Cameron Sexton threw two INTs, and the defense gave up a tying touchdown in the final minute after holding the Cavaliers without a TD the first 59 minutes. Tar Heels RB Shaun Draughn ran for a career-high 138 yards as North Carolina outrushed Virginia by 108 yards (166-58).

These teams haven’t met since 2005, when North Carolina won 16-14 as a four-point home ‘dog. The previous year, they met in the Continental Tire Bowl, and Boston College rolled 37-24 as a 2½-point pup.

The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight October contests, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 1-4 in ACC action and 0-5 after a spread-cover. The Tar Heels are on pointspread streaks of 9-4 against teams with a winning record, 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road record and 4-1 after a non-cover.

Boston College is on under runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-3 following an ATS win and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. For the Tar Heels, the over is 4-1 in their last five against a team with a winning record, 9-4 following a non-cover and 7-3-1 following a SU defeat. Most recently, the over is 3-0 in the Eagles’ last three overall and 3-1 in UNC’s last four.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(2) Alabama (7-0, 4-3 ATS) at Tennessee (3-4, 4-3 ATS)

The Crimson Tide try to keep their perfect season intact when they visit Neyland Stadium for an SEC clash against Tennessee.

Alabama is the only undefeated team left in the SEC after holding on for a 24-20 home win over Mississippi last week, failing to cover the 12½-point line. The Crimson Tide led 24-3 at the half but had to hang on in the fourth quarter, stopping Ole Miss on a fourth down near midfield late in the game to wrap up the win. QB John Parker Wilson, who threw for 219 yards and two TDs against the Rebels, had a career-high 363 passing yards and three TDs a year ago against the Vols, running his total to 521 yards in two matchups with Tennessee.

The Volunteers are coming off a 34-3 blowout win over Mississippi State in Knoxville, easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. Tennessee rushed for 139 yards and passed for 136 against the Bulldogs, and got a pair of fourth-quarter defensive TDs to seal the win, including a 72-yard interception return from sophomore Eric Berry, who has 10 career picks and is the SEC’s all-time leader in interception return yards with 397.

Alabama leads the all-time series with Tennessee 45-38-7, and they trounced the Vols 41-17 a season ago as one-point home ‘dogs. The host has won the last four in this rivalry, but the Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in those four and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Knoxville. Finally, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

Alabama is on ATS slides of 8-20 against teams with a losing record, 3-8 in SEC play, 3-9 following a non-cover and 1-4 in October, but the Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the highway. Tennessee is on ATS streaks of 6-1-1 against teams with a winning record, 4-1-1 in SEC action, 4-1 as a home underdog and 6-2 in October kickoffs.

The under is 11-4 in Alabama’s last 15 October games and 15-6 in its last 21 against teams with a losing record. The Vols are on a plethora of under runs, including 12-2 overall, 35-16-3 at home, 5-0 in SEC action, 4-0 in October, 35-16-2 following a spread-cover and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in this rivalry dating to 2004.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(9) Georgia (6-1, 2-3-1 ATS) at (11) LSU (5-1, 2-3 ATS)

After splitting a pair of tough SEC road games, LSU finally returns home to Baton Rouge for another difficult conference test against the ninth-ranked Bulldogs.

A week after getting throttled 51-31 at Florida, the Tigers went to South Carolina last Saturday and rallied for a 24-17 victory over the Gamecocks as a 2½-point road favorite. LSU’s defense forced three turnovers, and the Tigers outrushed South Carolina 164-39 in the victory.

Georgia has rebounded from its first defeat of the season – a 41-30 home setback to Alabama on Sept. 27 – with a pair of double-digit home wins over Tennessee (26-14) and Vanderbilt (24-14). However, the Bulldogs failed to cash in both contests, despite finishing with a 249-yard edge in total offense against Tennessee and a 180-yard advantage versus Vandy. Georgia has followed up a 6-0-1 ATS run with three straight non-covers.

These schools last met in the 2005 SEC Championship Game, when the Bulldogs skewered LSU 34-14 as a two-point underdog. The host is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, and the winner has covered in nine of the last 10, including the last four in a row.

The Dawgs are on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup and 6-2 against winning teams, but they’ve now failed to cover in nine of their last 11 October affairs. Meanwhile, despite last week’s win and cover at South Carolina, LSU is still mired in pointspread funks of 5-10-1 overall, 2-6-1 at home, 3-8-1 in SEC action and 1-4 in October.

The last three meetings between these teams have climbed over the total, and the over is also on runs for LSU of 11-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC action and 4-1 in October. On the other hand, Georgia has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, four of its last five SEC games, five of its last six in October and 10 of its last 14 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Virginia Tech (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at (24) Florida State (5-1, 2-2 ATS)

Virginia Tech hits the road for an ACC battle for the second straight week when it travels to Tallahassee, Fla., to take on the surging Seminoles.

The Hokies jumped out to a 10-0 lead and returned two interceptions for touchdowns last week at Boston College, but it wasn’t good enough as they fell 28-23 as a three-point road underdog. The loss snapped Virginia Tech’s five-game overall and seven-game ACC road winning streaks, and Frank Beamer’s team, which got outgained 300-240 at B.C., is now in a 2-5 ATS slump going back to last year’s Orange Bowl loss to Kansas.

Florida State ran its winning streak to three in a row with last Thursday’s come-from-behind 26-17 victory at North Carolina State, though it failed to cover as a 10½-point chalk. Sophomore QB Christian Ponder was outstanding (23-for-35 for 254 yards, one TD, no INTs) in helping the Seminoles pile up 392 total yards. Bobby Bowden’s offense has put up an average of 35.3 points per game in its last three contests since a 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest.

The Hokies outscored Florida State 20-0 in the fourth quarter last year en route to a 40-21 victory as a seven-point home favorite, the school’s first win in 16 tries against Florida State. Virginia Tech, which had a 396-267 advantage in total offense in last year’s victory, also snapped an 0-3 ATS slide against the ‘Noles.

Despite its current pointspread woes, Va-Tech still enters this contest on positive ATS streaks of 19-7 on the highway, 24-8 in ACC play, 17-4 as an underdog, 12-3 as a road pup since 2001, 6-2 following a SU defeat and 11-5 in October. Meanwhile, Florida State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a home favorite, 1-4 ATS in its last five after a victory, 2-6 ATS in its last eight in October and 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight versus winning teams.

The over is 8-3 in the Hokies’ last 11 road games, 9-3 in FSU’s last 12 in October and 3-1 in the last four series meetings. However, five of the Seminoles’ last seven contests in Tallahassee have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and OVER


(14) South Florida (6-1, 2-4 ATS) at Louisville (4-2, 3-2 ATS)

Louisville tries for its first three-game winning streak since 2006 when it welcomes No. 14 South Florida to Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium for a Big East tussle.

The Cardinals resume Big East play after a couple of non-conference wins and covers over Memphis (35-28 as a 5½-point road favorite) and Middle Tennessee (42-33 as a 14½-point home chalk). In last week’s victory over Middle Tennessee, Louisville rallied from a 17-14 halftime deficit to score 28 unanswered points before giving up a meaningless touchdown with 36 seconds remaining in the game. The Cardinals finished with 391 yards (247 rushing) and gave up 306 (105 on the ground).

South Florida bounced back from its first setback of the season – a stunning 26-21 home loss to Pitt – by throttling Syracuse 45-13 last week as a 23½-point home chalk. QB Matt Grothe went 16-for-26 for 248 yards, with three TDs and no picks, and he also ran for a TD as the Bulls racked up advantages of 487-230 in total yards, 239-101 in rushing yards and 26-11 in first downs.

The Cardinals will have payback in mind today as they look to avenge last year’s ugly 55-17 loss at South Florida as a nine-point road underdog. In that one, South Florida led 41-10 at the half and tallied 481 total yards (230 on the ground) while forcing an astonishing seven turnovers. The home team has won and covered all five meetings in this rivalry over the past five years, the last four decided by 25 points or more.

South Florida is stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 overall, 3-6 as a road favorite, 2-5 in October, 1-5 after a SU victory and 0-7 against winning teams, but the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big East contests. Louisville is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog, but 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on grass.

The over is on runs of 6-2 for Louisville overall, 16-7 for Louisville in October contests, 8-2-1 for South Florida overall, 6-2-1 for South Florida on the highway, 4-1-1 for South Florida in league contests and 7-3 for South Florida in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(8) Texas Tech (7-0, 2-3 ATS) at (19) Kansas (5-2, 4-2 ATS)

Kansas attempts to bounce back from a humbling loss at Oklahoma when it entertains unbeaten Texas Tech at Memorial Stadium in a Big 12 battle.

The Jayhawks kept things close for a half at Norman, Okla., last week, but eventually succumbed to the Sooners 45-31. Kansas did get a touchdown with 58 seconds to play to sneak in the backdoor and cover as a 19½-point road underdog. Although they racked up 491 yards of total offense, the Jayhawks surrendered a whopping 674 total yards (206 rushing) as their three-game winning steak came to a halt.

One week after surviving a scare at home against Nebraska (37-31 overtime win), the Red Raiders went to Texas A&M and struggled for a half before rallying for a comfortable 43-25 victory, outscoring the Aggies 25-2 in the second half. However, Texas Tech came up short as a 21-point road favorite, the team’s second straight non-cover. The Red Raiders, who have won nine straight games, finished with 561 total yards, but committed three turnovers.

These teams last met in 2005 at Texas Tech, and the Red Raiders prevailed 30-17 but failed to cash as an 18½-point chalk. Kansas has covered the last three meetings, but Texas Tech has won five of the last six SU going back to 1996. Finally, the underdog has been the play in each of the last four battles.

Texas Tech is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, while Kansas is on pointspread runs of 21-6 overall, 21-8 at home, 10-1 as a home chalk, 23-9 on artificial turf, 13-3 in conference play and 8-1 in October. In fact, the Jayhawks have won 13 consecutive home games (10-1 ATS in lined contests), but none of those were against ranked foes.

For the Red Raiders, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 7-3 in Big 12 action and 6-1 on turf. The under is also 5-0 in Kansas’ last five home games and 4-0 in its last four on turf. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER


Colorado (4-3, 2-4 ATS) at (16) Missouri (5-2, 3-3 ATS)

Missouri will try to get back in the win column for the first time in three weeks when it hosts Colorado in a Big 12 North clash at Faurot Field in Columbia.

The Tigers’ dreams of a national championship season have gone up in flames the last two weeks with losses to Oklahoma State (28-23 as a 14-point home favorite) and top-ranked Texas (56-31 as a four-point road underdog). In last week’s ugly outing in Austin, Missouri fell behind 35-3 at halftime and ended up getting outgained 591-343, including 203-30 on the ground.

Colorado snapped a three-game slide with its first Big 12 victory of the season, a 14-13 win over Kansas State, though the Buffaloes came up short as a 3½-point home favorite, falling to 0-4 ATS over the past month. Colorado has scored exactly 14 points in three straight games, but after giving up an average of 35.7 points in its previous three contests, it yielded a season-low 13 points to the high-scoring Wildcats.

Missouri went to Boulder last year and thumped the Buffaloes 55-10, piling up 598 total yards (and allowing 196) as a 3½-point road favorite. The Tigers have won and covered the last two meetings after Colorado started the decade on a 5-0-1 ATS roll against Mizzou.

Colorado is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games since 2005 (0-3 ATS this year), and the Buffs are on further ATS nosedives of 1-5 in Big 12 play, 1-6 in October, 7-19 against winning teams and 3-7 when playing on grass. Conversely, despite what’s happened the last two weeks, the Tigers are still 15-6 ATS in their last 21 overall, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 at home, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU defeat.

The over is 5-2 in the last seven series meetings, with the last three in a row topping the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER


(6) USC (5-1, 4-1 ATS) at Arizona (5-2 SU and ATS)

Coming off their second straight shutout – and one of the most lopsided victories in school history – USC takes to the road for the second consecutive week when it invades Arizona Stadium for a meeting with the upset-minded Wildcats.

After blanking Arizona State 28-0 on Oct. 11, the Trojans went to Washington State last week and humiliated the Cougars 69-0, easily covering despite being a ridiculous 43-point favorite. QB Mark Sanchez set a school record with five first-half touchdowns passes as USC took a 41-0 halftime lead, and the Trojans finished with 625 total yards while allowing 116. It was the Trojans’ biggest shutout win since a 69-0 rout of Montana in 1931.

USC is working on a 10-quarter scoreless string, having outscored opponents 131-0 during this stretch. The Trojans are allowing an average of 7.8 points, 220.2 total yards and 136.5 passing yards per game, figures that rank first, second and first, respectively, in the nation.

Arizona bounced back from a heartbreaking one-point loss at Stanford with last Saturday’s mild 42-27 upset win over Cal as a 2½-point home underdog. The Wildcats outscored the 25th-ranked Bears 28-3 in the second half to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS at home, where they are averaging a whopping 50.2 points and 456.5 total yards per game and giving up 14.2 points and 256.2 yards per contest.

USC is in the midst of a six-game winning streak against the Wildcats dating to 2001, but Arizona has covered the last three in a row, all as a three-touchdown underdog or more. Last year, the Wildcats went to L.A. and took a 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter before falling 20-13 as a 21-point pup. The visitor has cashed in five of the last seven meetings.

The Trojans are riding pointspread runs of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on grass. They’re also 27-12 ATS in their past 39 games after scoring more than 40 points the previous week, but they’re still 4-11 ATS in their last 15 October outings. Meanwhile, Arizona is on ATS streaks of 9-2 overall, 6-0 at home, 7-1 in Pac-10 play, 8-2 on grass and 5-0 versus winning teams. However, they’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine when coming off a 40-plus-point offensive outburst.

The under is on streaks of 20-8 for USC overall, 20-6 for USC in conference, 18-5 for USC on grass, 6-1 for USC in October, 15-7 for Arizona on grass and 12-5-1 for Arizona in October. Finally, the last two head-to-head battles between these schools have stayed low, which comes on the heels of a 4-1 “over” stretch in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Cokin

Bowling Green  / No Illinois
Take No Illinois

This week's free opinion again involves Northern Illinois, and I'm not ready to get off that Huskies express just yet. I've had NIU as a very big play three times this season, and they've obliged with a cinch cover on each occasion. I can't step out with them here, as it's not a very good scheduling spot for the Huskies. In fact, the situation favors Bowling Green to some extent. The Falcons just lost as home chalk and are now catching some decent points on the road. NIU is off the gigantic revenge win over Toledo and they have unbeaten Ball State on deck. But the fundamentals favor the Huskies by a substantial margin. BGU is having a great deal of trouble stopping the run and the Falcons have been unable to create balance offensively. Northern Illinois has surrendered just 434 yards on the ground in their last five games combined and should dominate in the trenches again this week. NIU is just 10 points away from being 7-0 and I still feel they're a bit underrated. The situation prevents me from taking a big stance on the Huskies, but I believe they're good enough to reward their backers yet again this weekend.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jim Feist

So Miss / Memphis
Take Memphis

Southern Miss at Memphis: Why on earth did Southern Miss (2-5 SU/ATS) dump longtime successful coach Jeff Bower to bring in new coach Larry Fedora? Bower's offenses were balanced, he brought in talent on both sides of the ball, and his teams always had a rough, tough defense, not to mention bowl bids. Fedora is an offensive mind, presumably to put points on the board, but the defense has been awful. They lost again Saturday, 45-40 at Rice, allowing 586 yards! The new spread offense is averaging 30 points with 255 yards passing. But they lost to Marshall and to previously winless UTEP, 40-37 in double OT. They also had a surprising home loss to Marshall, 34-27, giving up 429 yards. Southern Miss is 0-3 in league play for the first time in the 13-year history of Conference USA, and yet is a road favorite here. Memphis has a fine coach in Tommy West and Southern Miss has no pass rush, which will help junior QB Brett Toney, making his first start. A year ago Memphis won at Southern Miss, 29-26, as a +17 dog. Play Memphis.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

FairWay Jay

Boston College +2.5

Confidence building win for Boston College last week, as they outplayed and out-gained Virginia Tech 28-23 despite five turnovers and two interception returns for touchdowns. Just the opposite for North Carolina, as the Tar Heels blew a late lead and then lost in overtime to Virginia, 16-13. That loss marked the third time in North Carolina’s last four contests that the game was decided in the closing minute, and the second ACC defeat that saw the Tar Heels blow a fourth quarter lead. North Carolina had also been out-gained in their three previous contests before holding the total yardage advantage over the weak Virginia offense. Now the Tar Heels will face Boston College’s superior running attack and the ACC’s no. 3-ranked offense, and struggle on the ground themselves against the ACC’s no. 2 defense. North Carolina’s offense and specifically the passing game is significantly less efficient since quarterback TJ Yates went out with injury. And now with top wide receiver and kick return specialist Brandon Tate out for the year, the offense struggled even more against a sub-par Virginia defense. Boston College is more confident, healthier and the better team right now in an underdog role. Fly with the Eagles.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Arizona

A big battle in the PAC 10 kicks off Saturday night in the desert when the Wildcats play host to the Trojans at Arizona Stadium. While the Cats have taken it on the chops the last six games in this series they've managed to take home the money each of the last three meetings. From a technical perspective, road favorites off back-to-back shutout wins are 0-8 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win since 1980. Surprisingly, USC is just 4-11 ATS on the conference road off a SU and ATS win under head coach Pete Carroll, including 0-4 SU and ATS the last four. With Arizona 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven tries as a home dog of 7 or more points, look for the Wildcats to improve to 13-1 ATS as a conference dog with revenge here tonight in this UPSET ALERT!

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nelly

Rutgers + over Pittsburgh

Just when things start to appear the brightest for Pittsburgh the team disappoints so this could be a difficult spot. Last week’s Navy game was a big revenge spot and the Panthers delivered and it might be easy to look ahead to next week’s Notre Dame game. Coach Wannstedt is 0-3 against Rutgers although last year the Panthers probably should have won with a TD called back late in the game. Pittsburgh is 3-10 in the last 13 home games and Rutgers is 8-1 in the last nine games as double-digit underdogs. Rutgers is allowing less than 20 points per game and this could be a close defensive battle with the underdog having the advantage.

Nelly’s is 12-7 in the last 19 packages on this site and we are unleashing our top play for Saturday’s college football schedule. We have won our top college play each of the last three Saturdays with underdogs winning outright. Last week we had Maryland for a 26-0 shutout winner and we expect a similar convincing result in an afternoon game this week.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Great Lakes Sports

Vanderbilt (-10) over Duke

The Vanderbilt Commodores have been playing much better this with a respectable 5-2 record this season, and they are an outstanding 6-1 ATS this including 6-1 ATS when playing on grass this year. The Commodores have an outstanding 3-0 ATS record at home this year, and the Vanderbilt Commodores have had most of their success with a solid defense only giving up 17 points per game. The Duke Blue Devils are a terrible 1-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record, and they are only 5-11 ATS after playing a conference game the last three years. The Vanderbilt Commodores are a solid 4-1 vs the Duke Blue Devils since 1992, and the Commodores is an outstanding 9-1 ATS in their last ten games after allowing 220 yards rushing in their previous game while the Duke Blue Devils is a dismal 3-6 ATS when playing in October the last three years, and they are a mediocre 5-10 ATS off a loss vs a conference rival the last three years. We look for the hostile crowd of Vanderbilt Commodores to be too much for the Duke Blue Devils to overcome, and with another Vanderbilt win they will become bowl eligible. We here at Great Lakes Sports look for the Vanderbilt Commodores to dismantle the Duke Blue Devils in this key non-conference showdown for the home ATS win & cover.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

LEE KOSTROSKI

Oklahoma @ Kansas St.
PICK: Oklahoma -18

The Sooner offense has to be licking their chops when it comes to facing this porous KSU defense. The Cats stop unit has been terrible this year allowing nearly 200 YPG rushing and 240 yards passing. Those numbers rank them 106th in the nation in total defense and those were against mainly suspect offenses. KSU’s schedule has been very light with the exception of games @ Louisville and home vs. Texas Tech. Their 38-29 loss @ Louisville was dominated by the Cards outgaining the Wildcats by 234 yards. KSU’s home game vs. Texas Tech was a 58-28 loss and they allowed the Red Raiders 626 total yards! Other than that, the offenses they have faced have been average to below.

Now they attempt to slow down an Oklahoma offense that averages nearly 50 PPG and ranks 4th nationally in yardage per game. Good luck with that. Last week the Sooners faced a pretty good Kansas defense and rolled up 674 yards. They were a bit flat coming off their showdown (and a loss) vs. Texas and still put up 45 points. Their defense was also flat and uncharacteristically allowed 35 points to a very good Kansas offense. That won’t happen this week vs. a KSU team that is one-dimensional on offense. The Cats can’t run the ball being out gained on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. While KSU QB Josh Freeman is good, he won’t be able to do it all here vs. an angry OU defense that will want to make amends for last Saturday’s underachieving performance.

The Sooners don’t mind the road at all where they are 23-6 SU their last 29. They are so good on offense and KSU is so bad on defense, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if OU doesn’t have to punt once in this game. The Sooners can score whatever they would like here and we look for them to get into the 50’s as they usually do. Kansas State won’t be able to keep up and Freeman will be forced into making tough throws to try and bring his team back resulting in turnovers. OU pulls away big time in the second half and wins easily getting the cover.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois
PICK: Bowling Green +8

Bowling Green let another game slip away in the fourth quarter last week, allowing a late touchdown drive to Miami-Ohio as the Red Hawks earned their first win of the year against FBS competition. The loss marked the second time in three weeks that the Falcons defense couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most. Of course, the seven and three point losses would both be good enough to cover this pointspread. And there are plenty of reasons to expect a better effort from Bowling Green on both sides of the football this time around.

Bowling Green head coach Gregg Brandon, following last week’s loss: “There’s a lot of football left and these kids are capable of winning games if we become a consistent team and take no stupid penalties.” Let’s not forget that BG returned 17 starters from last year’s eight win bowl bound team. Despite suffering two MAC losses already, the Falcons are still very much in contention for the MAC East title, thanks to their win at MAC East leading Akron two weeks ago. With a 3-1 SU record on the road this year (6-1 dating back to last year), hostile environments haven’t been so hostile for this veteran squad.

And we’ve got a couple of pertinent quotes from the BG defense indicating that they expect a better showing this time around. Senior linebacker John Haneline following the loss to Miami-O: “It’s probably the most frustrating game I’ve played in, in my career. To be honest with you, it’s just disgusting to me.” Senior defensive end Adrian Baker: “When our team is playing together and we take care of those (little) things, we can’t be stopped.”

Had this game been played in Week 1, Bowling Green would have been the road favorite, not an underdog of more than a touchdown. It’s certainly not like the Huskies are an unbeatable foe; a 2-10 team from last year with a redshirt frosh QB making only his third career start this week. And let’s not forget the Huskies head coach Jerry Kill and his staff visited Bowling Green to view the Falcons spread offense during his tenure at Southern Illinois. Many of the things he learned on that trip were incorporated into the Huskies attack this year, giving Bowling Green a solid level of familiarity with the offense that they are going to face on Saturday.2* Take Bowling Green.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Brian Graves

USC vs. Arizona
Pick: USC -15   

There talking big in Arizona about this being a program game, but there is one problem with that. This game is bigger for USC after Arizona beat Cal last week. This now becomes the biggest game left on the USC schedule and don't think that will slip by Pete Carroll. Beating the WSU's of the world by 69 is nice but a win over a proven quality team like Arizona is what is necessary to keep the Trojans in the Nationa Title hunt. Remember that teams like Florida, LSU, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. all have huge games left on their schedule to help build their resume if they end up with one loss. Every one of those teams could still win their conference championship and huge BCS points while USC is sitting at home.I really love this game, but my love for it would increase if the Buckeyes have a 10-14 lead on Penn St. when this game kicks off because that means Ohio St. would go 11-1 this year with their lone loss being a blowout at USC and those BCS points would be huge. One final factor for me on this game is that USC has underachieved in their previous performances against the Wildcats and Carroll will us that as motivation as his defense dominates on the way to a 38-13 win!

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Fisher

Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -14

Look for the Ramblin' Wreck to run over the Virginia run defense. Paul Johnson G Tech team will do even more damage (avg. 248 yds per gm) than what UNC did last week(166yds rushing)against the Cavaliars. G Tech has the 5th best scoring DF in the nation just giving up a 11 pts per game! G Tech is also ranked in the TOp 10 in Red Zone DF. Yes...Virginia has had three impressive wins but this time they will come to earth against G. Tech. To put it simple Virginia does not match up well against G. Tech Yellow Jackets 31 Cavaliars 10

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Alabama -5' at TENNESSEE 

I certainly don't mind laying a few on the road in Knoxville tonight, as I am not at all deceived by Tennnessee's 34-3 romp over an offensively-challenged Mississippi State team last week.

I still think the Vols have major issues, and they will be exposed once again tonight against the stuanch Tide defense which is allowing 15 points per game, and just over 2 yards per carry on the ground!

Alabama has been a quick starter this season, but has been unable to string together 4 solid quarters of football the last few weeks, so expect that to be their focus tonight on the checkerboard field.

The Crimson Tide has outscored their opponents 95-3 in the first quarter this year, and if they get out of the gate in similar fashion tonight, there is no way Tennessee will be able to stop the landslide. Expect the Tide to start quick here, as the Vols have been outscored 37-0 in the first quarter this season.

Finally, the road team in the series is a profitable 6-1 against the spread the last 7 meetings.

G-Man says to "lay it" tonight with the Tide!

5♦ ALABAMA

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

UCLA +17 at CALIFORNIA 

Hard to pass on the bushelful of points they are giving to UCLA, as the Bruins have covered their last 4 games for Rick Neuheisel, and they have won outright in 2 of their last 3 games.

Overall, the Uclans are a massive 16-2 against the spread their last 18 games when installed as the underdog, and they are a positive 3-0-2 against the math the last 5 times they have faced their conference rival from Berkeley.

Speaking of Cal, the Golden Bears blew last week's game at Arizona, and their revolving QB rotation now looks like it is creating more problems rather than solve them!

Jeff Tedford's team is a dismal 3-12 against the spread their last 15 as a double digit favorite.

Offensive coordinator Norm Chow has done a nice job helping juco quarterback Craft doing just enough to keep these Bruins competitive, and with this many points on our side, we feel there is nice value with the underdog Bruins.

Play on UCLA.

4♦ UCLA

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

JEFF BENTON

For Saturday we’ll lay the hefty lumber with Florida in its SEC home game against Kentucky.

The Gators did me very well the last two times they took the field, delivering huge Best Bet winners with blowout victories over Arkansas (38-7) and LSU (51-21). In fact, I went against Florida in its stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss and backed the Gators in a 30-6 rout of Tennessee, meaning I’m on a 4-0 roll with games involving Urban Meyer’s team.

So why only a free play on the Gators today? Because this number has gotten a bit out of control, and with Georgia on deck, there is the possibility of a look-ahead here (it’s also possible Meyer yanks his big guns off the field in the fourth quarter and leaves the backdoor open). Still, I think Florida’s worthy of a look here because, A) the Gators are coming off a bye; B) they need to keep winning big to impress the pollsters; and C) Kentucky is dealing with some devastating injuries. (In addition to losing top RB/kick-return threat Derrick Locke to a season-ending knee injury last week against Arkansas, two key defensive players for Kentucky are dealing with severe ankle sprains.)

Now, the Wildcats have been a surprise this season at 5-2, with the two defeats (Alabama and South Carolina) coming by a combined 10 points. And Kentucky has been feisty against Florida in recent years (5-1 ATS last six meetings, 4-1 ATS last five in The Swamp). But this is without a doubt the most complete – and fastest – team Kentucky has seen this season, and it’s a team on a mission after that loss to Ole Miss.

The Gators, who have cashed in eight of their last 10 home games and five of their last six SEC contests, really opened some eyes with that thrashing of LSU two weeks ago. And if Florida, which is averaging 37.3 ppg in SEC play, can do that to the defending national champs, I don’t see why it can’t make a statement with a four-TD win over the depleted and offensively-inept Wildcats, who are putting up just 17.3 points and 288.7 total yards per game (61.7 rushing ypg) against SEC opponents.

4♦ FLORIDA GATORS

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

SCOTT DELANEY

Your free winner is on Kentucky against SEC-rival Florida.

We're catching more than three touchdowns in this one, and though Urban Meyer’s bunch is capable of blowing anyone out at any given time, just hear me out on this one before second-guessing the Wildcats.

First of all, Kentucky is 5-2 on the season, and though three of those wins came against Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, the Wildcats responded after playing those cupcakes by battling Alabama in a 17-14 road loss, and by sticking with South Carolina in a 24-17 setback. Now it comes in off a 21-20 win over Arkansas. Bottom line, the competition has not dictated how this team has played … the Wildcats’ second-ranked pass-efficient defense is as good as advertised. The seventh-ranked scoring defense is really that good.

Now, with Florida, we’re talking about a normally vibrant passing offense, but one that is shooting par this season, ranking 61st in the nation with 211.3 yards per game. Yes, this team scores some points, but this team is also getting things done defensively. But the biggest factor for me in this one is look-ahead factor. And since Georgia is on deck with the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, I have to believe the Gators won’t be extending themselves too much when they have the ball, and will likely use their rushing game to keep Kentucky off the field, while giving the defense some rest.

And with both teams being rather successful on defense, this is conceivably a very big number to cover for the Gators. Let’s take the points, as I see Florida winning by about 10 points, not 20+.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

JAKE TIMLIN

Saturday's selection is the TCU Horned Frogs.

Total MWC mismatch of the day take TCU at home as they bury the hapless Cowboys. After all due to the Cowboys going 0-13-1 ATS since last September backing the Horned Frog at home is a No Brainer. A selection make even easier thanks to the Horned Frog nasty defense that is ranked #1 in the nation as TCU show how good they are by destroying BYU last week and will continue to be the top defense in the land thanks to the Cowboys awful offense that leads the nation in turnovers. Flat out while some might think TCU will take it easy on Wyoming I don’t think so all due to the Horned Frog loss in Laramie last season. So looking revenge and playing one of the worst teams in the nation take TCU minus the points as they roll past Wyoming by at least 35 points.

All TCU!

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Saturday take the Tar Heels at home.

Cheap, cheap, cheap!

Brandon Tate is done for the season and TJ Yates is not going to be ready to go today which certainly hurts North Carolina but to get the home Heels and lay a field goal max against a solid but far from great 5-1 Boston College team is enough of a deal for me.

Butch Davis really is a great coach and has already made huge strides in improving this North Carolina program. The wins at Rutgers and Miami certainly do not seem as great anymore as those other teams have been failing a lot of late but UNC is still a talented group and we all know how important being at Chapel Hill can mean.

I don't care one bit that Carolina fell in Virginia in overtime in that last game. The Cavs are much improved and the highway is always a rough place to play and especially in-conference as we'll see one more time here.

Cameron Sexton was the third string signal caller to begin the season but has risen and has been alright. The guy has engineered big drives and after a big last home win over Notre Dame should be able to repeat that feat here against an Eagles squad which is comparable to the Fighting Irish.

Matt Ryan and others are long gone and Chris Crane and his 5 td's and 9 int's will not cut it today on the road, no how no way!

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Middle Tennessee State +10

Mississippi State shouldn’t be favored by double-digits against any Division-1 team in the country.  The Bulldogs have one of the worst offenses in the  nation averaging just 285 yards of total offense/game and a mere 4.3 yards/play.  Mississippi State is scoring just 14.4 points/game.  Middle Tennessee State is a very competitive team that has played solid opponents this season.  The Blue Raiders have not lost any game this season by more than 19 points.  Middle Tennessee owns wins over Maryland and Florida Atlantic, and they were 1-yard short of beating Kentucky.  So they have talent, and more than enough talent to keep this one close against Mississippi State Saturday.  Mississippi State is 1-8 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Bulldogs cannot throw the ball, making their offense one-dimensional and easy for the Blue Raiders to stop.  Cash in with Middle Tennessee State as the underdog.

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Info Plays

3* on Rice/Tulane OVER 67

Reasons why the Rice/Tulane game goes OVER the Total Saturday:

1.)  Rice is scoring 39.9 PPG for one of the best offenses in C-USA, but they also have one of the worst defense in the conference giving up 39.3 PPG.  The Owls are yielding 47.0 PPG on the road as well.  Tulane’s defense isn’t much better.  Tulane’s defense was exposed by giving up 44 points to Army a couple weeks back at home.  The Green Wave also gave up 27 points to SMU the week before.  Rice will have their way with this defense, but Tulane will pick apart the Owls’ terrible defense for at least 35 points as well.

2.)  The OVER is 6-1 in Rice’s 7 games this season.  The odds makers haven’t adjusted this total accordingly.  All but one total this season in Rice games have been set at 67 points or higher.  Yet the Owls have managed to go OVER in 5 of those 6 contests.  Odds makers are making a mistake by not setting this total in the 75-point range, and even if it was we’d still be favoring the OVER.  These teams combined to score 76 points in their 2006 meetings, where Tulane won at Rice 45-31.

3.)  System Play.  We’ll Play Over - Any team against the total (RICE) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning.  This is a 55-25 OVER System hitting 68.8% over the last 10 seasons.  Rice has 9 returning starters from last year’s offense which score 31 points on Tulane.  We feel this same offense will be able to put up more than 40 points in their ‘08 meeting.  Tulane has 8 offensive starters back from a team that put up 45 points on Rice last year.  They’ll have similar success in another shootout.  Bet the OVER 67 points

Blade
useravatar
Online
224840 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45941
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
290901
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.1
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3771
Newest User:
John
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
1834

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com