Saturday Service Plays
Saturday Service Plays
Notre Dame vs. Washington U
Play: Over 54
The Fighting Irish are coming off of a bye and thus gives Coach Weis an extra week to develop scoring plays against a weak Husky defense. Notre Dame can put points on the board but their weakness has always been on defense and thus this sets up for a perfect situation for a strong play on the over. Coach Willingham will show no mercy or let-up and will try to score points each and every time he has the football against Notre Dame, a school that fired him four years ago. We will not worry if Notre Dame can cover this spread and just collect with the over.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Take Connecticut (+1.5) over Cincinnati
The Huskies are playing their first home game in over a month and it couldn’t come soon enough. They have dropped two straight games and have not looked good since Tyler Lorenzen has gone down. That said, they were a shanked field goal away from a win at Rutgers last week (Cincy only beat RU by three points at home), and I feel like they would be laying a field goal here if they had picked up that victory. The Huskies have played BY FAR the more challenging schedule this season and I think that this is really Cincy’s first true test since their trip to Oklahoma. The Huskies are 7-2 ATS after a loss and are a very live dog here as the public pounds away at Cincinnati.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
The Wisconsin Badgers have been in a tailspin since blowing a double-digit lead at Michigan, and we do not see them recovering this week either vs. a good Illinois Fighting Illini squad.
The Badgers started the season 3-0,but the first two wins were vs. cupcakes and they did not play particularly well in their 13-10 win at Fresno State either. They have since gone 0-4 however, and they lost their last two games 48-7 here at home to Penn State and 38-16 on the road at Iowa.
We do not expect that struggling defense to suddenly rise up here, as the Illini are averaging 36.1 points and an impressive 484.4 total yards of offense per game. Illinois has also been extremely balanced, averaging 279.7 passing yards on an outstanding 9.4 yards per pass attempt, and 194,1 rushing yards on a very good 4.8 yards per carry.
Illinois quarterback Juice Williams is completing 60 percent of his passes and has 16 touchdown passes vs. just seven interceptions, and when you add in their powerful running game, we look for a rather handy Illinois road win here.
Pick: Illinois -2.5
Texas A&M +3.0
The Texas A&M Aggies and Iowa State Cyclones just may be the two worst teams in the Big 12, but at least the Aggies have a decent passing attack, and they did give Texas Tech fits for three quarters last week.
Texas A&M is averaging 238.4 passing yards per game on a very respectable 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Their quarterback Jerrod Johnson is completing 62 percent of his passes, and he has 11 touchdown passed vs. just four interceptions.
Best of all, he will be passing against an Iowa State defense that is generously allowing 411.0 total yards per game, including 234.1 yards in the air on 8.6 yards per attempt. Now granted, the Aggies are just as bad defensively, but the Cyclones simply lack the offensive weapons to take advantage of this.
Iowa State has done virtually nothing offensively since the start of Big 12 play, averaging just 16.7 points and 280.0 totals yards per game in conference play. They have been equally inept on the ground (94.3 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush) and in the air (185.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per pass) in three conference games.
These teams are just about equal in every area except passing offense, and therein lies the key to this game as we look for Johnson to pass A&M to the mild upset on the road.
Pick: Texas A&M +3
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Cincinnati @ U Connecticut Under 45.0
This Saturdays Big East combatants the Cincinnati Bearcats( 5-1) and the Connecticut Huskies(5-2) enter into this tilt with identical 5 win seasons. The Huskies , however, have lost two straight games, to North Carolina and Rutgers respectively. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are currently on a four game winning streak, and are clicking on all cylinders.
Both these teams have top flight defenses. Connecticut allows opposing offenses to average just 17.3 PPG overall, and 13.7 PPG at home in Rentscheler Field, which ranks them 2nd in the conference . The Huskies secondary has been especially staunch, allowing 182.6 ypg , while snagging nine interceptions , and allowing foes to convert only five touchdowns through the air. The Connecticut front has been a hand full for opposing offensive lines as is evident by their 18 sacks. I expect nothing changes today.
The Bearcats, are known for their balanced offense, but their D, is extremely steady, having allowed only 19 PPG. The defense has been very tough against opposing ground attacks limiting their opposition to an average of 94.5 YPG, and just 3 Tds on the season. Thats not good omen for a UConn team that uses the ground attack, almost exclusively behind RB Donald Brown to move the chains.
In conclusion, I expect this contest is going to be a hard fought , low scoring, smash mouth affair .
DEFENSE , DEFENSE and more DEFENSE.
Final notes & Key Trends:UConn is 17-6 L/23 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. Cincinnati is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in October games, with the average combined score ringing in at 37 PPG.
Play on the UNDER
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oklahoma vs. Kansas State
Play: Oklahoma -19.5
I smell a blowout here. Oklahoma should be able to pass all over K State's secondary here. When OU runs the ball to balance the attack somewhat, they are tough to defend for anyone. Kansas Sate has issues on offense in this match up, and although QB Freeman is a stud, when asked to carry the entire game on his shoulders, like this one, he will fail. OU simply has too many weapons and a mission to get o the title game tied up with the hopes that Texas can fall in defeat between now and the end of the season.
Oklahoma's defense is not the same without Reynolds, who is out for the year, but an opportunistic secondary may play a large role in this one for the Sooners. Kansas State had a total of 15 first downs last week, but gave up 24 of them to Colorado. While the Buffs failed to capitalize on most of those, although they still won, rest assured Oklahoma will take full advantage of that by scoring points.
Oklahoma 48 Kansas State 20...Lay the Wood
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Rutgers + over Pittsburgh
Just when things start to appear the brightest for Pittsburgh the team typically disappoints so this could be a difficult spot. Last week’s Navy game was a big revenge spot and the Panthers delivered and it might be easy to look ahead to next week’s Notre Dame game. Coach Wannstedt is 0-3 against Rutgers although last year the Panthers probably should have won with a TD called back late in the game. Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in the last 13 home games and Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games as double-digit underdogs. Rutgers is allowing less than 20 points per game and this could be a close defensive battle with the underdog having the advantage.
Nelly’s Sportsline has delivered winning packages in eleven of our last 17 offers posted on this site for nearly 65 percent winners and our last football pick was a blowout NFL winner with the Patriots on Monday night. Join us Thursday for the ESPN match-up between Auburn and West Virginia. We guarantee to deliver the winning side and as a bonus we’ll include our opinion on the Mountain West game as well.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Cincinnati @ Connecticut
PICK: Cincinnati -1
Cincinnati is coming off a bye week and that extra time will be beneficial. The Bearcats have won four straight games and are currently 1-0 in the Big East Conference. This game means quite a bit considering the next four games comes against the best four teams in the conference so heading into that stretch at 2-0 is a must. Making things even more interesting is the fact that Cincinnati will have only five days after this one to get ready for a visit from the Bulls.
While the Bearcats are hot, Connecticut is struggling. The Huskies have dropped two straight games including a heartbreaker at Rutgers over the weekend. They had a shot to win but missed a field goal with just over a minute remaining. This will be the first home game in five weeks for the Huskies which is no doubt a big advantage while they are also playing with revenge following a 27-3 blowout loss last season in Cincinnati. However, the Bearcats have too many edges in this one.
Three games back, the Huskies won at Louisville in a game they had no business winning and it was the one game they were outrushed this season. Connecticut rushed for 157 yards and that has begun a downward spiral from the rushing game. After averaging 279.5 ypg in their first four games, the Huskies have averaged only 147.3 ypg over their last three games. Things won’t get better here as Cincinnati comes into this game with the 13th ranked rushing defense in the nation, allowing just 94.5 ypg.
Special teams, defense, and a resurgent running game have helped the Bearcats play through the loss of their top two quarterbacks to injury. Despite this, the Bearcats are 39th in the country in total offense including 26th in passing offense and 21st in passing efficiency. They will go against a solid defense in Connecticut but after allowing 7.3 ppg in their first three games, the Huskies have allowed 24.8 ppg in their last four games and it is no surprise due to the level of competition increasing.
Field position can play a big role and Cincinnati has a huge edge in two big special teams’ categories. It is 1st in the country in net putting while the Huskies are only 84th and the Bearcats are 6th in kickoff returns while Connecticut is 99th. Cincinnati has covered 10 of its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while the Huskies are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against winning teams. That shows a lot of how each steps up or down against the level of competition and we will see more of the same here. 3* Cincinnati Bearcats
Re: Saturday Service Plays
UNLV @ BYU
Play: BYU –22.5
After a promising 3-1 start the Rebels have drooped their last 3 games in a row. Most recently losing at home in a heartbreaker 29-28 to Air Force last week. BYU suffered their first loss of the season last week in embarrassing fashion at the hands of TCU. The Horned Frogs defense just dominated the potent BYU offensive attack while sacking Matt Hall 7 times. Hall and the Cougars get just what the doctor ordered this week facing a UNLV defense ranked #108 in total defense and #106 in scoring defense. The BYU defense has allowed just 3 points total in their last 3 home games. This one has all the earmarks of a major blowout.
Any conference home favorite of 21.0 or more that is off an away underdog ATS loss by 15 points or more, is facing an opponent playing with revenge, and the opponent has a winning percentage of better than .100 is 14-0 SU and ATS since 1990. The favorite has won those 14 games by an average of 41.1 points per game. Play on BYU minus the big number.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Colorado vs. Missouri
Play:Missouri - 22 ½
If Missouri is as good as we think they are, then this is a good bounce back spot for them. The Tigers enter off back-to-back losses against Oklahoma St and Texas. Two weeks back, Mizzou was a 14 ½-point home favorite over Okie St and lost straight-up 28-23. And last week they were just pounded from the get-go at Texas and wound up losing 56-31. But there should be no shame in losing either one of those games. The Oklahoma St loss looks worse because of the high spread, but that line was simply out of whack. Many thought Missouri would give Texas all they wanted last week as they were off that home loss and were catching Texas off their big Oklahoma win. And we saw a ton of support for them as the line crashed from 7 ½ to 4 at kickoff. Now how many bettors who backed Missouri last week will be quick to unload on them again this week? Not too many, especially with the Tigers laying three touchdowns.
But we’ll certainly step in here. Missouri’s high octane offense has been stalled by much bigger and faster defenses than what they’ll face with Colorado. Missouri’s gimmicky offense is not as effective when facing good defenses, but when it lines up against weak ones, it explodes. Over their first five games, Missouri scored at least 42 points in every game. They had just 17 going into the 4th quarter last week before they piled up the garbage points and yards when the game was out of reach. Last year, Chase Daniel led the Tigers to 55 points and 598 yards in their 45 point win at Colorado. And a repeat of that performance is certainly attainable again this year. Missouri’s schedule is weak the rest of the way, and big, lopsided wins should resume.
Colorado was supposed to be much improved this year. It’s Dan Hawkins third year, and after going from 2-10 in 2006 to 6-7 and a bowl game in 2007, another positive step was expected. But that certainly has not been the case. Colorado got out of the gate fast opening the season at 3-0. But the wheels have come off lately as the Buffaloes are just 1-3 over their last four games. The win came last week over a bad Kansas St team, but Colorado should be embarrassed by the 14-13 final. Kansas St’s defense is horrible, but they held Colorado to just 13 points on 353 yards. Over their previous four games, K-St allowed at least 30 points and 509 yards to opposing offenses. Colorado has no chance of trading points with Missouri here. Under Dan Hawkins, Colorado is only 2-9-1 against the spread as a road underdog. That, combined with the fact that Missouri will be looking to atone for the last two weeks, equals blowout. Go with Missouri.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
MIAMI FLA -3 to Wake--The CANES can win this game and they've been putting points on the board of late
S.FLA -4.5 to Louisville--the Bullas are 6-1 and know how to get W's. They can win this game on the road in conference
NEBRASKA -10.5 to Baylor--The Huskers should handle the Bears in Lincoln and win their second straight
PENN ST -2 to Ohio St--The Nittany Lions are playing bettter football than the Buckeyes and win this game by 3-7 points
NOTRE DAME -11.5 to Washington--the Huskies can't beat anybody and the Irish should roll. Wash gives up big points every week
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Boston College +3 (5 units)
Mississippi -5 (5 units)
Ball St -24 (5 units)
Oregon -4 (5 units)
Alabama -6 1/2 (5 units)
Ga Tech -11 1/2 (5 units)
Okla St +13 (5 units)
Texas Tech +2 1/2 (5 units)
TCU -31 (5 units)
Florida St -4 (5 units)
N Illinois -8 (5 units)
C Michigan -3 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -1 1/2 (5 units)
Notre Dame -11 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn +11 1/2 (5 units)
UL Monroe +2 (5 units)
Troy -24 1/2 (5 units)
Over 46 1/2 Md-NC State (5 units)
Over 47 1/2 Ky-Florida (5 units)
Over 53 Miss-Ark (5 units)
Over 41 1/2 Tenn-Alabama (5 units)
Under 51 Cal-UCLA (5 units)
Over 71 Ok State-Texas (5 units)
Over 57 C Mich-Toledo (5 units)
TOTAL OF YEAR: Over 42 1/2 TCU-Wyoming (10 UNITS)
Re: Saturday Service Plays
2* Uconn +3 over Cincinnati
Lot's of similarities between these two Big East Teams. Cinci has had QB problems this year while Uconn will likely be down to their 3rd stringer Saturday as Zach Frazer looks doubtful as of this writing. (Pike will go for Cinci) Both teams are stingy on the defensive side of the ball and both teams have had similar results against similar competition. If Cinci has an edge it's in the kicking game as they sport some of the best punting numbers in the country. Likewise, the field goal kicking, where Uconn kicker Tony Ciaravino has been benched after missing a 42 yarder with under two minutes to play at Rutgers which would have given the Huskies the win.
Uconn became "good" in 2003. It's when everything came together for the program and they officially "arrived" on the scene. In that time, 2003 to the present, one thing has remained constant. Uconn has performed poorly on the road yet has been fantastic at home. 2003 was the only year they had a winning road record, going 4-2. Every year since, they have lost on the road. Yet at home, they have been one of the better teams in the entire nation, going 28-7 since 2003. In that time they have been an underdog 16 times, going 11-5 against the number. It's safe to say that Uconn has a significant home field advantage. Uconn returns home this week after 3 straight games on the road........there's no place like home.
Throw in some added motivation to go along with the home field edge and we have the makings of a nice spot for Uconn. That added motivation comes in the form of Uconn having never beaten Cinci. They are 0-4 against the Bearcats with last year being perhaps the worst loss of all as Uconn went to Cinci ranked #16 in the Nation and left with their tail between their legs in a 27-3 loss.
Cinci QB Tony Pike is coming back this week after breaking his non throwing arm. He may have picked the wrong week as Uconn has done a great job getting after the QB with 18 sacks on the year. Count on Pike getting rattled this week. It's tough to come back with that kind of an injury and not worry about getting reinjured. Especially after you find yourself on your back a few times.
Ultimately we don't think this game will be decided by the QB's but rather, the running games and the defensive side of the ball. On a neutral field we'd rate this game dead even. The intangibles mentioned above put Uconn over the top here, with their fantastic home field play, and the added incentive for Coach Edsall and the Juniors and Seniors on this Uconn Team. If it comes down to a last second field goal, we'll be crossing our fingers with Uconn using a new Freshman kicker this week, but we'll take our chances. Watch the number. We like the Huskies straight up here. But if/when they announce for sure that Zach Frazer won't play, you're likely to see an overreaction with the line. Currently there are a few +3's out there and you're likely to see more soon. 2* Uconn +3
2* Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State
There's alot more on the line this week in Columbus than just a football game. This game of course has Big 10 Title ramifications, but on the larger scale, has major significance on the National scene. A loss by Penn State would be a knock on the entire Big 10 Conference. If that happens, all you'll hear about is how the Big 10 is a weak conference that deserves no recognition or credit when talking National Title game. They'll say that Ohio State couldn't compete with USC, and then Penn State lost to Ohio State.......well, you get the picture and you know what? They'd be 100% correct. As it is, even if Penn State wins big, they are still going to be criticized for schedule strength. A look at either one of these two teams schedules is enough to make you yawn. This week will be the toughest game for both of these teams all year long. A Penn State win here and we're likely looking at Penn State undefeated and in the Title game. Imagine that, Joe Pa going out with the crown. That would be a story that even Hollywood couldn't have come up with. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.
This weeks game will likely be decided in the trenches which is why we like our chances with the Paternos. Both the offensive and defensive lines for Penn State have been playing great, dominating opponents while Ohio State might have some problems, particularly on the offensive line where they have suffered some injuries and start a freshman at center. Last year Penn State didn't force Ohio State to punt once. This year we think it will be a little different.
The skilled positions get all the glory. But it's the trenches that decide games like these, particularly in the Big 10 and we feel Penn State has the edge here on both sides of the ball. We'd also give them the edge at QB. Penn State did have some trouble with Juice Williams when they faced Illinois but as the game went on, they were able to slow him down. The stage may be a little too big this week for Ohio States Terrelle Pryor. His production went down every game until his big blowout performance against Mich State last week but this will be his biggest test to date for sure. He figures to be on his heels and off to the races quite a bit this week and if Penn State can contain him, it's game over. Cut off the head and the tail will follow.
We also have some additional motivational factors here. How about revenge times 7. That's how many times Ohio State has beaten JoePa in Columbus since Penn State joined the Big 10. They have also beaten Penn State the last two times they have played including last years dominating effort. Big game for JoePa. Big game for the Penn State Juniors and Seniors.
Penn State has been the better team this year. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball and have a fantastically balanced offense. Ohio State has struggled at times, has some injuries on the lines, and in our opinion, still has a question mark at QB. Pryor hasn't seen anything close to what he'll see Saturday Night. This is simply a matter of backing the better football team, which should be enough to overcome the Ohio State home field advantage. A quick score or two shuts up 100,000 people pretty damn fast. You should be able to do better than -2.5 by game time. As always, watch the number. 2* Penn State -2.5 or better
2* Georgia +2 over LSU
It's pretty much a curse for any team to be ranked #1 in the pre season polls which is where Georgia found themselves before the season started. It's just about impossible to live up to those lofty expectations, especially when every team you face brings their "A" game as they gun for number one. Georgia is a good football team. Not great. But if last year is any indication, this team figures to get better and better as each week goes by. Remember, last year they started 4-2 and looked average at best in doing so. Then they caught fire and ripped through the 2nd have of their schedule capped off by that blowout of Hawaii in the Bowl game, all of which earned this team that pre season #1. Also remember that this is pretty much the same team. What better way to start the stretch run than with a win over the defending National Champs?
A look at these two teams body of work to date shows us they are very similar. Both were blown out by better teams. For LSU is was Florida while Alabama waxed Georgia. Otherwise, we see some big wins against weak teams, and some mediocre performances against some stiffer SEC competition. Neither team has had that break out performance. But it's Georgia that edges out LSU in many important categories. They are number one in the SEC in passing offense, total offense and rushing defense. (LSU is 5th in the SEC in rushing defense)
Georgia has a young offensive line that has had some injuries this year but they have held their own. In watching both teams this year, we have been less impressed with LSU. We simply feel Georgia is the better all around team here team here and the stats would seem to back us up. LSU has been a great team at home over the years (have won 30 straight at home on Saturdays) but Georgia has played some of it's best football under Mark Richt on the road as they have been one of the best road teams in the nation year after year. They are 9-2 under Richt, on the road against ranked teams. Not too shabby eh? A win here puts Georgia back in the mix as far as the big picture goes, a place where many thought they should be before the season started. This week and next will determine that as next up for the Bulldogs is Florida. Ouch. Talk about a 1-2 punch. Georgia has the talent and track record to get by LSU this week setting up a huge game next week with the Gators. 2* Georgia +2
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Lenny Del Genio
Wyoming at TCU
Back on September 6th we made a 'Members Only' selection that proved that there can be tremendous value with taking big underdogs in College Football. We took Ohio University that day, a 34.5-point dog at Ohio State, and all the Bobcats did was very nearly upset the Buckeyes in an eventual loss 26-14 loss. It was a terrible spot for OSU that day as they had a major lookahead to USC the following week and they were never in position to cover the near five-touchdown spread.There is a similar situation on this Saturdays CFB card in the form of Wyoming at TCU. Rather than a lookahead, Texas Christian is headed for a major letdown following last Thursdays monster 32-7 upset of previously unbeaten BYU. Now, they are being asked to lay more than 30 points to a Wyoming team that is on a 0-11 ATS run in MWC Play. Can?t see the Horned Frogs getting too up for this one despite playing with revenge for a 24-21 loss last year. The Cowboys actually led that game by 18 in the 4th Quarter and has beaten TCU 2 of the previous 3 meetings. That means were getting a dog that has some confidence (which they need following an awful start) plus they are coming off a bye week.Wyoming is just plain due here and getting an unmotivated favorite off its biggest win of the year is just the recipe for success.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Fresno St. @ Utah St.
PICK: Fresno St. -14.5 4*
If we wanted to completely insult your intelligence it would be easy to do that in this one – we could make a case that based on their game flows no team in the country turns it on in the fourth quarter more than the Utah State Aggies! Which is an absurdity, of course. But with a line move dropping this one right into the heart of our play range, we can go to one of our very favorite axioms in all of sports - Most truly terrible teams are even worse than they appear to be. So let’s get to work.
Why are awful teams worse than they appear to be? Because they rarely take the best punch from their opponents, and often see the other side merely going through the motions as they save energy for more important games. Because of that the scoreboards and box scores do not get a chance to fully reflect their ineptitude. Utah State is an absolute textbook example of that. Here are the scores by quarters for the Aggies so far this season –
1st Quarter – 7-75
2nd Quarter – 35-82
3rd Quarter – 9-85
4th Quarter – 66-38
So if you go back to our statement in italics in the first paragraph, you can see how the statistical case can be made. This is a team that has scored 56.4 percent of all of their points in the fourth quarter, and also has held the opposition to less than half as many points in the final period as in any other. But those numbers do not reflect a positive in any way. Rather, they are an indication of just how awful this team is, and that so much of what has happened in the final period has been a case of the opposition completely letting up, on both sides of the ball. Here is what does matter. At the end of three quarters they have been trailing by a combined 242-51. And in the first and third quarters, when both teams come out fresh, it has been a combined 160-16. That is ugly.
Now things go from bad to worse for Brent Guy and his team. Instead of an opponent looking to coast, they are going up against a fresh and rested Fresno State team coming off of a bye, and it was a break that the Bulldogs needed in the worst way, getting injured talents like WR Marlon Moore, TD Bear Pascoe, DT Jon Monga healthy again. With no distraction the Bulldogs will treat this one seriously as they focus on improving their bowl picture, which means that they mentally will not wear down late, and physically they can keep piling up the points – three of the top seven rushers in the W.A.C. operate out of this offensive backfield, a rather remarkable count. They are off of back-to-back games in which they have topped 300 yards rushing, and with only Wisconsin holding them under 5.0 yards per attempt in a game this season, they can completely wear out a defense that does not like getting hit head on.
There is also little home field advantage in Logan, where the crowds wane as each disappointing season wears on. In the Brent Guy era they have been a home underdog over the past five games of the season six times, going just 1-5 ATS. That negative count grows by one more in this one.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Georgia at LSU
The Georgia Bulldogs travel to LSU to face off against the Tigers. LSU is coming off a hard fought win over South Carolina. This was a game that saw the LSU running game wear out the Gamecocks late leading to a come from behind 24-17 win. Look for running backs Keiland Williams and Charles Scott share the load on the ground. The game plan will be similiar in this matchup vs the Bulldogs. Keep the game close and take control late with the power running game.
Georgia on the other hand will use a much more balanced attack. QB Matthew Stafford will be in charge of the offense with help from WR A. J. Green, while running back Knowshon Moreno will carry the load on the ground. The Bulldogs have been dominating in the stats but not on the scoreboard. They had over 400 yards of offense vs both Tennessee and Vanderbilt. While they won both games they couldn’t get to 30 points in either.
I like Georgia’s balanced attack and a defense that gave up only 1 yard rushing to Tennessee to come away with a road win. Take Georgia +2 over LSU.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Alabama @ Tennessee
Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC) has outscored opponents 171-23 in the first half this year, trailing for just 1 minute and 15 seconds this season, and it’s good thing for Tide fans or their crew may have lost each of their last 2 games. Coach Nick Saban’s (14-6 in 2nd year at Tuscaloosa) offense managed a total of just 3 second half points in narrow home victories over Kentucky (17-14) and Mississippi (24-20) amassing just a combined 30 first downs over the two week stretch. 6’2” 211 John Parker Wilson (92 of 152 for 1072 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT) runs the show, this year surpassing Brodie Croyle’s team career marks for completions (579), passing TD (45), and passing yards (6723). 6’4” 210 freshman WR Julio Jones (23 for 341 yards and 4 TD) is the favorite target of JPW so far alongside of junior Mike McCoy (10 for 142 and TD) and freshman Marquis Maze (8 for 76 and TD) but keep your eye out for #88 Nick Walker. The 6’5” 255 senior tight end (20 for 208 and 2 TD) was the reliable target last week with 5 grabs including a key 40-yarder. The Crimson Tide offensive line hasn’t been particularly good in pass protection, allowing 12 sacks in about 70 drop-backs but they have dominated in the run game. The upperclassmen wall of LT Andre Smith, LG Mike Johnson, C Antoine Caldwell, RG Marlon Davis, and RT Drew Davis have mixed and matched is an ever-changing line but have consistently owned the line of scrimmage throughout with 209.3 rush yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry. 6’1” 198 junior RB Glenn Coffee (108 for 760 and 5 TD) leads the ground attack and has demonstrated NFL-caliber explosion with TD runs of 87 and 78 yards under his belt already. 5’10” 215 freshman RB Mark Ingram (78 for 419 and 6 TD) brings the power and is the player to key at the goal line. Overall, first-year Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain’s squad has piled up 32.3 points per game on 371.1 yards while holding possession for 32:44 minutes per contest.
As productive as Bama’s offense has been this season, their defense may be better under the leadership of Cody, McClain, Woodall, and Arenas. First of all, you just can run on the Tide with 66.1 yards per game allowed on 2.7 yards per carry. 6’5” 365 junior NT Terrence Cody (15 T, 3 ½ TFL, FF, FR) is an absolute beast in the middle of Saban’s 3-4 alignment, crushing the point of attack an surrendering just a single rushing score through 7 games, book-ended by 6’5” 278 senior LE Bobby Greenwood (15 T, 2 TFL, S) and 6’4” 287 junior RE Brandon Deaderick (14 T, 2 S). These guys don’t rack up a pile of sacks but they were unmovable against some of the best like Clemson (0 net rushing yards), Georgia (50 yards), and Kentucky (35 yards). Making the hits behind the wall are SAM Cody Reamer (19 T, 4 ½ TFL, S, FF), WILL Dont’a Hightower (30 T, FR), JACK Brandon Fanney (28 T, 5 ½ TFL), and 6’4” 249 sophomore MLB Rolando McClain (3 ½ TFL, FR) who packs one heck of a wallop and leads Alabama in tackles with 48. Get past the front 7 and you have a couple of serious play-makers to deal with that can take your mistakes to the house. 6’2” 200 junior SS Justin Woodall (24 T, 4 INT, TFL, 2 FF) has the NFL scouts breathing heavy with his size, 10 passes defensed, 6 passes broken up, and a 74 pick return for touchdown. 5’9” 198 junior LCB Javier Arenas (30 T, INT, S) has not only returned his interception for a 63-yard score, he also averages 25.9 yards per kick return and 15.9 yards per punt return including an 87-yard trip to the bank. FS Rashad Johnson and RCB Kareem Jackson have also snagged interceptions as have nickel and dime backs Chris Rogers and Marquis Johnson. Alabama is very young with16 true plus 7 red shirt freshmen getting playing time in 2008 and a NCAA-lowest 9 scholarship seniors on the roster so we will be very interested to see how they hold up under the pressure of a National Championship homestretch chase.
Tennessee (3-4, 1-3 SEC) is coming off their best game of the season, a dominating 34-3 effort over Mississippi State last Saturday at Neyland Stadium, in which they held the Bulldogs to just 69 rush yards on 30 carries while racking 3 turnovers and committing only a single penalty. Much has changed for the Volunteers on offense and special teams since the beginning of the year but Coach Phil Fulmer’s (150-49 in 17 season at Knoxville) crew is about defense so let’s start there. The stopper numbers are pretty impressive with 16.0 points on 276.0 yards (95.7 rush, 171.3 pass) allowed per game with 14 sacks and a national-best 14 interceptions and some individual performances really stand out. LDE Wes Brown (22 T, 3 TFL, 1 ½ S) has been solid opposite of explosive 6’3” senior RDE Robert Ayers (25 T, 8 TFL, INT, S) who is closing in on the 12 tackles for loss he registered in 2007. Walter Fisher (14 T, S) and Demonte Bolden (18 T, 3 TFL) have both benefited by rotating at LDT while 6’3” 310 Big Daddy Dan Williams (30 T, 6 ½ TFL) has held the point for just 2.8 yards per rush allowed while showing a remarkable ability to split the gaps. At backer, 5’10” 225 senior MLB MLB Ellix Wilson (56 T, 4 ½ TFL, S, INT) leads the SEC in tackles per game at 9.3 and leads the small but speedy group filled out by 6’1” 215 junior WLB Rico McCoy (36 T, S) and 6’2” 215 senior SLB Nevin McKenzie (27 T, 5 TFL, 3 S, INT). Wilson is one heck of a player to watch on the field but at what position can the NFL employ him? Seven different Volunteers have bagged picks this season including each member of a defense backfield who’s starters have racked 11 by themselves. Cornerbacks 6’0” 200 senior DeAngelo Willingham (26 T, TFL) has three and 5’10” Dennis Rogan adds another in addition to averaging 25.9 yards per kick return. 6’2” 195 FS Demetrice Morley (2 T, TFL) adds a pair but the kid everybody has their eyes on is SEC Defensive Player of the Week 5’11” 195 sophomore SS Eric Berry (44 T, 5 INT, 4 ½ TFL, 2 S). Berry has pocketed interceptions in each of his last 3 games, has a 72-yard pick for TD and a 96-yard pick for TD this season, and his 397 career interception return yards are just 122 short of the NCAA record set by Terrell Buckley. Keep in mind, this kid is just a sophomore and unlike Buckley he loves to hit!
Tennessee’s offense has undergone changes as the year has progressed and the results have been positive. 6’1” 215 senior RB Arion Foster (79 for 381 yards and 0 TD) began the season just 684 rush yard short of the career school record but after piling up 196 yards on 25 carries in his first two games, Foster has lacked spark with just185 yards on 54 carries over his last 5 games. This has opened an opportunity for change of pace and red zone back 6’0” 210 junior Montario Hardesty (53 for 199 and 5 TD) to get key carries while 6’1” 210 sophomore Lennon Creer (32 for 186 and 3 TD) was the primary ball carrier against Mississippi State with 17 rushes for 68 yards and a score. Foster will get his 25th consecutive start this week but it looks like Fulmer may have moved on to Creer as the man. After poor offensive production early in the season, Jonathan Crompton (64 of 123 for 658 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) lost his starting job at the trigger to 6’4” 215 sophomore QB Nick Stephens (34 of 69 for 542 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). The completion percentage does not impress but Stephens has certainly stretched the field with 8 of 34 completions of 20+ yards through his first 3 starts. The key targets have also changed. Seniors Lucas Taylor (21 for 269 and TD) and Gerald Jones (19 for 251 and 3 TD) were Crompton’s guys and still get the majority of throws but the addition of the deep ball has been keyed by the Stephens to 6’1” 185 sophomore WR Denarius Moore (7 for 195 and TD) connection. In each of Stephens’ starts, Moore made a big play with catches of 45, 52, and 60 yards. Special teams has been a headache much of the season for Coach Fulmer – almost entirely due to his five game suspension of senior P Britton Colquitt to start the year. 2 blocked punts and 2 punts returned for touchdowns were the result (as well as screwing this very talented kid’s head back on straight). Since his return, Colquitt has averaged a whopping 46.4 yards per punt and a Tennessee weakness is again one of their strengths.
SELECTION: “The Third Saturday in October” is the traditional meeting of these schools and Coach Fulmer has a decisive edge over ‘Bama at 11-4 in his tenure. The Tide fans aren’t going to be happy about this but we have concerns this week for their Crimson. First, their offensive struggles in the second half each of the last 2 weeks when the Volunteers have outscored the opposition 88-42 this year. Second is their youth and depth. Third is laying big points on the road in a conference as tough as the SEC – especially against a noticeably improved team. Take Tennessee + 6 ½ at Neyland Stadium
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oregon @ Arizona St
Once thought to be one of the better conferences in the country, the Pac-10 finds itself with only USC ranked in the top 25 heading into this weekends action. Oregon and Arizona St were both expected to be top 25 main stays this season, but neither team has lived up to expectations this season. The Sun Devils were ranked as high as number 15 this season after starting 2-0, but have since dropped 4 straight and will be hoping to get bowl eligible with a strong finish. Oregon also started out the season fast at 3-0 and were ranked number 16 in the country at one point, but QB injuries and loses to Boise St and USC have them sitting on the outside looking in. Ducks at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in conference are certainly in good position to get a bowl bid, and they would prefer it be one playing on New Years Day. So let’s take a look at these two teams a little closer and we’ll start with the visitors from Oregon.As I mentioned earlier the Oregon squad has been hit by the injury bug losing their projected starting QB Costa before the season started, their opening game starter Roper has missed time with a concussion and a knee injury, their third stringer Masoli missed the second half of the Boise St loss, but has since come back and has started the last 3 games. Roper has returned to practice but will likely back up Masoli Saturday when they face Arizona St. Masoli nearly broke the Oregon single game rushing record last week against UCLA as he totaled 170 yards on 24 carries and finished just 3 yards short of putting his name in the record books. In the backfield Masoli is joined by running backs Blount and Johnson who both have over 500 yards rushing this season and average 7.2 and 5.8 yards per carry respectively. At WR the ducks are a balanced group with 4 guys catching 23 balls or more this season, and that group is led by senior Jaison Williams who’s closing in on Sammy Parker’s records for receptions and yards receiving. Give a lot of credit for Oregon’s ability to overcome injuries to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Since Kelley has taken over prior to 2007 the Ducks offense has scored 30 or more points in 15 of 20 games. Defensively the Ducks are OK allowing 25.6 points per game this season. The Ducks allowing 103 yards per game on the ground and 371 yards passing per contest this season could certainly use improvement. Defense is led by DE Nick Reed who leads the Pac-10 and ranks nationally in sacks and tackles for loss per game this season. Senior Pat Chung also ranks seventh in career tackles at Oregon with 338 playing the rover position in the Oregon defense. For Arizona St the problems are a little deeper than just having injuries, though their starting QB Rudy Carpenter has been nursing a sprained left ankle. Arizona St is off a bye week so Carpenter, who answered the call against USC, should be ready to go in this one Saturday. Carpenter is a solid QB for Dennis Erickson’s Sun Devils completing 65% off his passes, but his 8 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is a big concern. Most of the problem for Carpenter is a lack of a running game on offense. Their best RB Keegan Herring has missed time for Arizona St, but even his return against Cal and USC did little to bolster the rushing attack. Sun Devils only mustered 71 yards on the ground against Cal and 75 against USC. Arizona St should get healthier here off the bye week and some how they’re going to have to get some balance on offense, and that means getting productive yardage on the ground. The receiving corps is led by Michael Jones and his 30 catches this season, but again with teams playing the pass against ASU they haven’t had a lot of big play opportunities. Defensively the Sun Devils are allowing 22 points per game and their led by junior DE Dexter Davis and his 5 QB sacks and 7 tackles for a loss this season. Arizona St defense will certainly be tested by the Oregon offense that’s balanced and averaging 39.7 points per contest. Checking some of the history and trends here we find that ASU is 16-12 all-time versus Oregon including 8-6 at Sun Devil Stadium, but Oregon has won 3 straight. Oregon is off a bye week and Mike Belotti’s Ducks are 13-2 straight up on Saturdays off a bye during the regular season. Arizona St also off a bye is just 1-4 straight up the last 5 and 2-3 ATS, but they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS at home off a bye since 1992. Sun Devils are poor in the underdog role with a 1-10 straight up and 2-9 ATS mark when getting points the last 3 seasons while Oregon a big 60-37 ATS coming off a home game since 1992, but 15-31 ATS as a favorite of 3½-10 points over the same span. Mike Belotti’s squad has more momentum heading into this one, but Arizona St will be as healthy as they’ve been since week 1 and they’ll be playing with desperation in this one. Rudy Carpenter’s last shot to beat Oregon in his tenure at Arizona St will add extra incentive and we’ll recommend taking the points with the home dog Arizona St Saturday.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Penn State vs Ohio State
It’s not just a Big 10 Battle… It’s a Top 10 battle. The #3 ranked 7-0 Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to face the 10th ranked 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes in what should prove to be the most significant Big 10 matchup of the season. The team that wins this game mostly likely take the Big 10 Title. No pressure or anything.
Even though both teams have impressive straight up records, a closer look at the numbers can yield clues to this matchup. Ohio State is 2-5 ATS while Penn State is 5-1-1 against the number. Penn State has won its road games by an average of 32.3 points per game, while Ohio State has won its home games by an average of 19.8 points per game.
The Nittany Lions have not won in Columbus since 1978, and the Buckeyes have their sights set on a fourth straight Big 10 championship.
The Dr. Vegas Exclusive power ratings show Penn State at +12.1, with an opponent ratings of -1.2. Ohio State’s PR is +5.7, with an opponent rating of -2.0. Penn State has performed better against slightly stronger opponents. Moreover, Penn State has played one less game, but scored 82 more points this year than Ohio State and given up 23 less.
Despite the history of these teams and Ohio State’s ownership of the Big 10 crown, Penn State’s time has come.
Take Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Razor Sharp Sports
Oklahoma St vs. Texas
So the Texas Longhorns (3-0 7-0) have passed their first two big tests with flying colors. First they took care of Oklahoma, then they jumped on Missouri. The tests aren’t done yet. As a matter of fact, they really have just begun for the #1 team in the first BCS rankings of the season. They still have 3 more ranked teams on their schedule and more than likely a fourth waiting at the Big-12 Championship game. This week the test is the offensive attack of the Oklahoma St Cowboys (3-0 7-0). The Cowboys are currently #6 in the BCS and sport a dangerous double threat offense. Lets take a look at both teams closer.
Why not start with the #1 team in the country. I believe they have earned it. For the second straight week, Texas has beaten a ranked conference opponent by double digits. It is kind of like Lou Gossett Jr. in Diggstown, when they keep bringing the next fighter into the ring and “Honey” Roy Palmer keeps knocking them out. As a matter of fact, the Longhorns have beaten all 7 opponents by double digits and by an average of over 30 points per game. On offense they rank #2 in the country in scoring at 48.1 points per game and 10th in total offense with 484 yards per game. The team is lead by Heisman hopeful QB Colt McCoy. For the season McCoy has completed an incredible 81.2% of his passes (160 of 197) for 1894 yards, 19 TDs and just 3 interceptions. He is also the teams leading rusher with 371 yards and 6 TDs. When McCoy isn’t handling the ball, he has plenty of other weapons to take care of things. 3 other RBs have run for more than 200 yards. Chris Ogbonnaya has 285 yards and 3 TDs (including 2 last week against Missouri), Vondrell McGee has 243 and 1 score and FB Cody Johnson has 214 and 10 TDs. McCoy’s favorite targets through the air are Quan Cosby with 48 catches for 612 yards and 3 TDs and Jordan Shipley with 43 catches for 569 yards and 9 tallies. Ogbonnaya has also caught 25 balls for 339 yards and 3 TDs. The defense is allowing 17.6 points per game. That number has gone up a bit after the last two weeks games, but they are still ranked in the top 30 in the nation. The defense is lead by LB Roddrick Muckelroy (67 tackles) and All-American DE Brian Orakpo (12 tackles for losses and 8 sacks) For the season Texas is +6 on the turnover ratio. That is a little lower that what you would expect for a team that has been as dominant as they have been.
Now lets take a look at the Oklahoma St Cowboys. Mike Gundy’s team is out to a 7-0 start which ties their 7 totals wins that they had in the 2007 season. The Cowboys, like the Longhorns have been pretty dominant this year. 6 of the 7 wins came by double digits. Only their win over Missouri 28-23 was close. The offense is currently ranked 4th in the nation in points scored with 46.4/game. They are 7th in the country on total offense at 501.4 yards per game and are 5th in rushing. Another similarity to Texas, is at the QB position. Like McCoy, Zac Robinson is a double threat. For the season Robinson is completing 70.1% of his passes (94-134) for 1488 yards, 14 TDs and just 4 interceptions. He has also run for 249 yards and 5 more scores. Where they differ, is that Robinson has a RB that ranks 5th in the country in Kendall Hunter. Hunter has run for 955 yards and 9 TDs. When Hunter needs a breather, Keith Toston has filled in just fine. He has run for 487 yards and 7 more scores. Robinson’s favorite reciever is by far Dez Bryant. ryant has 45 catches for 809 yards and 11TDs. Compare that to the rest of the team that has 52 catches total for 719 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 20.6 points per game. That unit is lead by S Andre Sexton with 57 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception and 2 forced fumbles. LB Orie Lemon has also added 45 tackles. The Cowboys are +8 in turnovers this year.
The way both of these teams can move the ball and score, I think Vegas will have a hard time making a total high enough. Much like they have been in the last two Texas games. TAKE: OKLAHOMA ST/TEXAS OVER the total.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Game 109-110: Louisiana Tech at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 72.724; Army 76.302
Dunkel Line: Army by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Army by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (-2); Under
Game 111-112: NC State at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 84.738; Maryland 92.562
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8; 51
Vegas Line: Maryland by 11; 46
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+11); Over
Game 113-114: Wake Forest at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 87.432; Miami (FL) 94.050
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 6 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-2 1/2); Under
Game 115-116: Northwestern at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 86.341; Indiana 80.419
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 8; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+8); Under
Game 117-118: Minnesota at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 88.801; Purdue 91.728
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-1); Under
Game 119-120: Boston College at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 95.800; North Carolina 101.266
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3); Over
Game 121-122: Cincinnati at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 90.244; Connecticut 93.361
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3; 39
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+1 1/2); Under
Game 123-124: Illinois at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 95.739; Wisconsin 89.621
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 6; 60
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-2 1/2); Over
Game 125-126: Rutgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 84.736; Pittsburgh 97.157
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9 1/2); Under
Game 127-128: Texas A&M at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 79.424; Iowa State 84.937
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-3); Over
Game 129-130: Kentucky at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 90.805; Florida 110.839
Dunkel Line: Florida by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Florida by 24 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+24 1/2); Under
Game 131-132: Mississippi at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 92.535; Arkansas 89.752
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 3; 57
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 5; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+5); Over
Game 133-134: Eastern Michigan at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 67.862; Ball State 95.213
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 27 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Ball State by 24 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-24 1/2); Under
Game 135-136: UNLV at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 81.647; BYU 98.539
Dunkel Line: BYU by 17; 55
Vegas Line: BYU by 22 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+22 1/2); Under
Game 137-138: Duke at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 83.204; Vanderbilt 97.394
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 14; 44
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-10 1/2); Over
Game 139-140: Rice at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 76.446; Tulane 80.357
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4; 59
Vegas Line: Tulane by 2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-2); Under
Game 141-142: Fresno State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 85.498; Utah State 72.238
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 13; 65
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 16 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+16 1/2); Over
Game 143-144: SMU at Navy
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 76.439; Navy 85.672
Dunkel Line: Navy by 9; 67
Vegas Line: Navy by 12; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+12); Over
Game 145-146: Alabama at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 106.881; Tennessee 96.041
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 11; 46
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-6 1/2); Over
Game 147-148: Oregon at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 101.121; Arizona State 91.697
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Oregon by 4 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-4 1/2); Under
Game 149-150: UCLA at California
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 88.937; California 102.000
Dunkel Line: California by 13; 56
Vegas Line: California by 17; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+17); Over
Game 151-152: Kent at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent 68.925; Miami (OH) 77.835
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 6; 47
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-6); Over
Game 153-154: Virginia at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 88.780; Georgia Tech 96.557
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 12; 37
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+12); Over
Game 155-156: Oklahoma State at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 108.895; Texas 118.050
Dunkel Line: Texas by 9; 65 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 13; 71 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+13); Under
Game 157-158: Georgia at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 102.112; LSU 106.593
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: LSU by 2; 48
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-2); Over
Game 159-160: Oklahoma at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 114.632; Kansas State 92.108
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 22 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 18 1/2; 71 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-18 1/2); Over
Game 161-162: Michigan State at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 94.176; Michigan 85.039
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 9; 41
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-4); Under
Game 163-164: Virginia Tech at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 93.900; Florida State 100.742
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5); Over
Game 165-166: Bowling Green at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 72.408; Northern Illinois 83.771
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 11 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-8); Over
Game 167-168: New Mexico State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 71.846; Idaho 61.562
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 10; 72
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 14 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+14 1/2); Over
Game 169-170: Wyoming at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 68.472; TCU 104.902
Dunkel Line: TCU by 36 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: TCU by 31; 42
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-31); Over
Game 171-172: Central Michigan at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 81.720; Toledo 73.241
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 8 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3 1/2); Under
Game 173-174: South Florida at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 94.920; Louisville 94.761
Dunkel Line: Even; 62
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+4); Over
Game 175-176: Baylor at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 87.296; Nebraska 96.378
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 9; 57
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 11; 60
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+11); Under
Game 177-178: Texas Tech at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.042; Kansas 103.652
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 3 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Kansas by 1; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-1); Under
Game 179-180: Colorado at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 86.550; Missouri 113.442
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 27; 57
Vegas Line: Missouri by 22; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-22); Under
Game 181-182: Penn State at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 108.787; Ohio State 104.322
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Penn State by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-2 1/2); Over
Game 183-184: Southern Mississippi at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 79.267; Memphis 80.850
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 185-186: Notre Dame at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 92.631; Washington 85.518
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 11 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+11 1/2); Under
Game 187-188: Colorado State at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 79.486; San Diego State 67.647
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 12; 48
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 8 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-8 1/2); Under
Game 189-190: USC at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: USC 114.874; Arizona 104.529
Dunkel Line: USC by 10; 58
Vegas Line: USC by 16 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+16 1/2); Over
Game 191-192: Nevada at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 88.030; Hawaii 83.562
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 4 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 62
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-3); Over
Game 193-194: Middle Tennessee State at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 76.747; Mississippi State 83.628
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+10); Over
Game 195-196: Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 76.232; UL-Monroe 72.840
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 3 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-2); Under
Game 197-198: Troy at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 84.090; North Texas 54.549
Dunkel Line: Troy by 29 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Troy by 24; 63
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-24); Under
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