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Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Philadelphia Eagles -9

The Eagles are a much better team than their 3-3 record indicates and that's why the odds makers have them laying 9 points here. Atlanta has done its damage at home this season, getting outscore by 9 points on the road. The Eagles are winning by an average of 12.6 ppg at home. Philly is a dominant 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 home meetings with the Falcons and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 overall. The bye week has also treated the Eagles well historically at 15-5 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. Philadelphia has been phenomenal coming out of the bye week under HC Andy Reid, going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS while allowing just 8.8 PPG. Atlanta is 0-8 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 31.1 to 13.6. Take the Eagles.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Info Plays

3* on Cincinnati Bengals +9

1.) With just 2 wins on the season, the Houston Texans should not be anywhere near a double-digit favorite Sunday. The Cincinnati Bengals have played a brutal schedule to start the season and they have yet to win a game because of it. The loss of QB Carson Palmer hurts, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is gaining valuable learning experience as each week passes by. He’ll have much greater success this week against a Houston defense that is giving up a horrendous 29.8 PPG. Even the lowly Detroit Lions posted 21 points on Houston last week to cover the spread.

2.) Cincinnati has played only 1 team with a losing record this season. That was the Cleveland Browns in the first game the Bengals played without Carson Palmer. Cincinnati’s tough schedule has included road games at the Cowboys, Jets, Giants and Ravens. Their home games were against the Steelers (5-1) and the Titans (6-0). The Bengals finally catch a break this week against the 2-4 Texans. There’s no doubt they will keep this one close and will not get blown out of the water.

3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Home favorites (HOUSTON) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This is a 43-19 ATS System hitting 69.4% over the last 10 seasons. We’ll also Play On - Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points. This is a 45-19 ATS System hitting 70.3% since 1983. And finally, we’ll Play On - Road underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This is a 34-11 ATS System hitting 75.6% since 1983. Historically, it has been very profitable to back teams that are on a long losing streak because they are eventually going to break through while catching big spreads every week. The Bengals play the weakest opponent they have faced all season this Sunday. Bet Cincinnati on the road.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

John Anthony

Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens

Just one team has come three time zones West to East and covered a spread, none have won straight up. The team that covered was the Raiders but not likey to happen again as this is one of the worst road teams in football. Flacco and the Raven running attack should have big success against Black and Silver that is just 7-18 ATS in L25 verus the AFC North.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Black Cobras Picks 
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants     
Play:Over 42

The Fall Miracle    

Tulsa vs. Central Florida    
Play: Tulsa -22.5


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Under 42

Killer Bee Sports    

New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers    
Play: San Diego Chargers -3

Brandon Banks    

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Redskins    
Play: Detroit Lions +9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants    
Play: Over 42

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Re: Sunday Service Plays


Arizona at Carolina
The Panthers look to build on their 5-0 ATS record versus NFC West opponents over the last three seasons while taking on an Arizona team that is 0-5 ATS against the NFC South.  Carolina is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 8.  Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-4).   

Game 199-200: Oakland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.739; Baltimore 133.370
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7; 36
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7); Over

Game 201-202: San Diego vs. New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.952; New Orleans 128.806
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Over

Game 203-204: Kansas City at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.811; NY Jets 132.556
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 13; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+13); Under

Game 205-206: Buffalo at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 129.321; Miami 131.472
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Tampa Bay at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 137.122; Dallas 134.560
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Over

Game 209-210: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 130.485; Philadelphia 137.673
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+9); Under

Game 211-212: St. Louis at New England
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.231; New England 134.307
Dunkel Line: New England by 10; 40
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

Game 213-214: Arizona at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.567; Carolina 138.776
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-4); Under

Game 215-216: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.675; Detroit 121.150
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2); Over

Game 217-218: Cleveland at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.612; Jacksonville 136.622
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7); Over

Game 219-220: NY Giants at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.595; Pittsburgh 141.469
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Seattle at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.397; San Francisco 126.574
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5); Under

Game 227-228: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 122.856; Houston 130.464
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+9 1/2); Under


Game 225-226: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.168; Tennessee 142.624
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 7 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under


Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

The Phillies look to follow up last night's win behind starter Joe Blanton, who has yet to drop a decision in 15 starts for Philadelphia.  The Phillies are the pick according to Dunkel, which has Philadelphia favored by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia.

Game 957-958: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.386; Philadelphia (Blanton) 17.409
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Andre Gomes

CAR -3.0 (-140) vs ARI

Even though I don't like to bet against teams which are coming from a bye week, the truth is that this won't be the right spot for the Cards, as they were coming from two good wins over two good teams like the Bills and the Cowboys and they saw their momentum being end with a bye week and there is the risk they will come flat for this game. This is even more problematic, as the team will play their 3rd on the East this season and they went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the first two games. They have even stayed for the whole week in the East coast to prepare for the game against the Jets in NY, but all they have got for that was a 35-56 defeat.

The Panthers are coming from a big win over the Saints by 30-7, bouncing back in that way from a tough defeat they had suffered in Tampa Bay the week before. The team will have a back to back home game this week, where they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS this season. Curiously, the matchup between Carolina and Arizona is similar of last week's game between Carolina and New Orleans. The Cards are a team which basically passes the ball all the time, in order to advance on the field. Kurt Warner and the receiving corps of Arizona are 2nd in passing yards with 273 yards/game. Curiously, the Saints are the best team of the NFL on that stat with 310.9 yards/game. The rushing game of the Cards is barely used, with them being 28th on the league, averaging just 86.4 yards/game. The Saints are 27th, with 91.4 yards/game. This comparison between the Cardinals and the Saints isn't a coincidence, as the Panthers just allowed the powerful passing game of the Saints and a potential MVP Brees to score 7 points and 228 passing yards. The reason for that is simple: Carolina is 2nd on the league in pass defense, with just 168.7 passing yards/game allowed.

On the other side, Jake Delhomme directs a well balanced offense, with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams a being good threats on the rushing game and with the duo Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad to be great recieving options for Delhomme.

The receiving corps of the Cards won't be at 100% this week, with Cardinals tight end Leonard Pope (foot, ankle) has been ruled out of Sunday's game. Backup Ben Patrick (knee) practiced a little Friday for the first time since suffering the injury against Buffalo on Oct. 5. Also if we look to the schedule of the Cardinals, we see that they will play 3 divisional games in a row after this week against the Rams, 49ers and the Seahawks. These three consecutive divisional games will surely be more important than this week's game.

The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS on their last 7 home games and they have all the conditions to win this game and then rest next week, on their bye week. Take the Panthers in here.

***(buy the 1/2 point from -3,5 to -3)***

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Majors

TAM +2 vs DAL

After opening with three impressive wins, the Dallas Cowboys (4-3) are now attempting to salvage their season and focus without their injured QB Tony Romo who is not expected to return until mid-November.

The surprising Tampa Bay Bucs (5-2) travel to Dallas looking for another win.  They were impressive last Sunday night in a 20-10 win over Seattle.  The Bucs had a 402-176 advantage over the Seahawks in total yards and limited them to seven first downs.  QB Jeff Garcia had another good performance completing 26-37 passes for 310 yards and one TD.  The Cowboys will have difficulty in running their offense agains a Buc team that ranks eighth in total defense at 303.3 ypg and forth in scoring defense at 15.3 ppg.

The Cowboys will again start QB Brad Johnson who was 17-34 for 234 yards and 1 TD, but 3 interceptions in last weekend loss to St Louis 34-14.  RB Marion Barber has been productive in the backfield as he has rushed for 255 yards and 1 TD in his last four games. The defense was lackluster and failed to show in allowing St Louis to run through the middle of the line.

The Cowboys are in a state of disarray and trying to get the team to play together without outside turbulence.

The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games versus the NFC.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC.

Take Tampa Bay receiving the small number as they will win outright.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Larry Ness

HOU / CIN Over 45

The Bengals and Texans were both scheduled to be off this week but Hurricane Ike forced the Texans to cancel their Week 2 game with the Ravens, which forced the NFL to move some game-dates around. If things weren't already going poorly for the Bengals, who own the NFL's worst record at 0-7, a third straight road game isn't exactly what the doctor would order. Conversely, the Texans with play their fourth straight game at home. Houston opened its "four-game homestand" by collapsing in the final 4 1/2 minutes against the Colts, losing 31-27 in Week 5. However, the Texans defeated the Miami Dolphins in the final three seconds in Week 6 (29-28) before handing the Lions a 28-21 setback last week. Don't be deceived by that Detroit final, Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week. Only a Matt Schaub fumble inside the 10-yard line kept the game from being worse than the 21-3 halftime score. Houston then went into a "deep freeze," while Detroit used a 96-yard TD pass and a 54-yard FG (2nd of the game!) to "back door" the poinstspread. QB Matt Schaub went 26-of-31 for 267 yards with two TDs and no INTs last week, after throwing for 379 yards (and scoring the game-winning TD) the previous week vs Miami. He's also reconnecting with WR Andre Johnson, who has 21 catches for 319 yards the last two games (also caught nine passes for 131 yards from Rosenfels against the Colts). The Texans have never won three straight games during a season but the winless Bengals may help Houston change all that. Unfortunately for the Bengals, this is not the first time they have started a season with seven losses in a row, as the franchise did so in 2002 under head coach Dick LeBeau. Cincinnati has started 0-8 on four separate occasions since 1978 and is trying to stay away from the worst start in franchise history set in 1993, when it dropped the first 10 games with head coach Dave Shula at the helm. Current head coach Marvin Lewis remains on "the hot seat" and things surely got no 'cooler' after last week's 38-10 loss to the hated-Steelers. QB Carson Palmer has been bothered by an elbow problem all season and has missed two straight and three of his last four games. He will miss again on Sunday with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting his fourth start. Fitzpatrick is 0-3 in his three starts this season, averaging  a rather sad 157.3 YPG with an abysmal QB rating of 65.7. He gets little help from the running game (is Benson really an addition?), which averages 73.9 YPG and 3.2 YPC. However, Fitzpatrick does have an excellent group of receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh plus the troubled but talented Chris Henry. While Houston is "on a roll," let's remember the Texans allow 29.8 PPG, the second-most in the NFL. Head coach Kubiak has his Texans riding high and a suspect Cincinnati defense shouldn't slow them down. However, the Bengals are 3-0 all-time vs the Texans and at 0-7, enough is enough. The Houston defense is more than capable of giving up points and I see this game being very high scoring. Take Cin/Hou Over.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

Buffalo/Miami Under 42

Both teams are having solid seasons, but Buffalo has exceeded everyone's expectations. I still think the Bills are overrated and will be going up against an experienced Dolphins Defense. Miami will also be going up against a more experienced defense and neither team has the type of offense to blow you away. We could see wind gust of 40mph. That is tough on the kickers and the QB's. Take the Under.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays


1* Tampa Bay +2 over Dallas

The number on this is worth watching. As of this writing we see mostly +2 out there, with one +2.5. If several 2.5's pop up and become readily available, we'd advise buying the half point up to Tampa +3.

You have to base your selections on a teams body of work to date, not what you think is going to happen in the future, or what you think should have happened in the past. With that perspective, you would have to come to the conclusion that the wrong team is favored in this game. We make Tampa a 3 point favorite but you really don't have to know how to handicap a game, or know how to make your own line, to come to that conclusion. Just looking at both teams results to date should be enough to open your eyes.

The Cowboys have looked pathetic to say the least. We here the talking heads on TV every week tell us how the Cowboys are the most talented team in the league, blah. blah, blah. But it looks as though the Cowboys are starting not only to believe that, but also think all they have to do is show up to get the W. Fact is, with the number we like to focus on, the Cowboys are not even in the top half of the NFL.

We like to bring up yards per point as an indication of a teams general strength and weakness on both sides of the ball. The stat goes a little deeper than the traditional stats the NFL puts out, such as total offense and total defense which can be misleading. When we look at Tampa Bays yards per point on defense, which is over 19, that makes them the number one defense in the NFC and the 2nd best in the entire NFL behind only the Titans. They face a Cowboy offense that, while it gets alot of hype and attention, weighs in with a yards per point number of close to 15, which means there are 14 or so other teams in the NFL performing much better offensively, than the Cowboys.

Keep in mind, all the yards a given offense can gain, doesn't do them any good if they can't put the ball in the end zone. Likewise defensively. Dallas is among the worst in the entire NFL defensively, using yards per point with a 12. There are only two teams in the entire NFL with worse numbers, the Seahawks and the 49ers. So while both of these teams are performing about the same offensively, the Bucs have a HUGE edge defensively here. We're taking best against worst defensively. Oh, and turnovers.....Dallas is -6, Tampa is +3.

Fundamentals folks. Warrick Dunn is questionable for the Bucs while Romo is out for the Cowboys. Throw in all the distractions with the Cowboys and this is a team in some serious trouble. We'll take a shot here with a small play on the better team to date. Tampa Bay +3 with a half point buy if available

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Maddux Free Play:
New Orleans Saints +3 (NFL)

Marc Lawrence
PICK: New Orleans Saints +3 (NFL)     

Ben Burns
PICK: Chiefs/Jets UNDER 39 (NFL Sunday)

Matty O'Shea 
PICK: New Orleans Saints +3 (NFL) 

Rocky Atkinson 
PICK: #20 Tony Stewart over #11 Denny Hamlin (NASCAR) 

PICK: Eagles/Falcons UNDER 45 (NFL)     

Larry Ness
PICK: Bengals/Texans  OVER 45 (NFL) 

Bob Majors
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 (NFL)  analysis

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