Sunday Service Plays
Sunday Service Plays
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
The Chiefs gave up 34 points to the Titans last week and have seen three of four games finish above the total. Those results have helped keep this afternoon's over/under line above the key number of 37. I believe that provides us with plenty of value. The Chiefs have seen the 'under' go 12-7-1 their last 20 road games. They've also seen the under go 4-1 the last five times that they were double-digit underdogs. They've scored just 10 points in their last two games combined. As for the Jets, they managed only 13 at Oakland last week. Including that result, they've seen the 'under' go 10-3 their last 13 games. Looking back further and we find the 'under' at a profitable 61-40-2 the last 103 times that they were laying points, including 2-0 when they were listed as double-digit favorites. Last year's meeting finished with a score of 13-10 and this year's has all the makings of another low-scoring affair.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Strike Point Sports
Take Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta
This line is a bit higher than I expected, however I still think the Eagles will take care of business at home. Both teams come off a bye, but the Falcons still give me reason to be weary with them on the road. Atlanta did well in Green Bay in week five, but prior to that scored just nine points each in losses at Tampa Bay and Carolina. And against a blitzing Jim Johnson defense, I feel the Eagles' unit can create similar issues for rookie Matt Ryan. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and here I like for them to win this one and cover the wood in the process.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Pick: COWBOYS to cover the spread
We're finally getting value on a Dallas spread this season. We have made money this year going against the Cowboys who have an awful ATS record. This isn't surprising since some fools thought this team would go undefeated. We argued that they probably wouldn't make the playoffs (this before the season started) because their division is loaded.
Right now the Cowboys are being written off because of how poorly they played last week. Keep in mind that the decision about Romo sitting was not all media hype - there is real reason to believe that no one in the Cowboys was sure, which means Brad Johnson didn't exactly get great preparation time. He will be much better now that Romo has stepped down for the next few weeks.
Dallas is at home, where they are very hard to beat, and the Bucs are coming off an adequate win over the Seahawks that showed some of their vulnerabilities. Dallas willl be able to win this game with their defence, which matches up extremely well here. They'll play a more conservative style and grind out a home win, and with the line at a mere -2 points that should be enough for a COWBOYS cover.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Dallas Cowboys -2.0
Now at fist glance, it appears that the Dallas Cowboys are up against it when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.
After all, the Dallas defense has been non-existent lately, and the Cowboys were even shredded by the lowly St. Louis Rams in a shocking upset loss last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are seven points from being 7-0 this season, and much of the country saw their devastating defense dominate the Seattle Seahawks on national television in prime time last Sunday night.
However, because of this, we are getting fantastic line value here, as surely you would have taken Dallas laying less than a field goal at home if this line was offered two weeks ago. Furthermore, the Cowboys need this game to avoid the possibility of shockingly dropping to last place in the NFC East, while the Bucs are breathing easier, tied for the NFC South lead.
Also do not forget that Tampa Bay has a disturbing habit of calling off the dogs early, as was the case Sunday night when the final score was an extremely deceptive 20-10. Anybody that watched that contest knows that the Seahawks looked totally outclassed and that the Bucs could have named the score.
That kind of approach would get the Buccaneers in trouble here vs. an angry Cowboys team that will be determined to prove all of the detractors that are writing them off wrong, especially in front of their home fans.
Besides, while yes the Bucs could be 7-0, they could also be 0-3 on the road, as their only road win was somewhat gift wrapped by a Chicago Bears penalty in overtime while Tampa was punting the ball away.
We will opt to buy low here and back a proud Dallas team at this bargain price at home.
Pick: Cowboys -2
New Orleans Saints +3.0
Surely, when the NFL picked the San Diego Chargers and the New Orleans Saints to travel to London to play this game in Wembley Stadium, the league was not banking on both teams having 3-4 records at this point.
That said, we like the Saints to bounce back well here after getting embarrassed 30-7 at Carolina last week. The Panthers themselves were coming off of a terrible blowout loss prior to that game, and we look for New Orleans to have a similar reaction here.
After all, quarterback Drew Brees is having an excellent season, completing 68.4 percent of his passes and averaging 8.46 yards per pass attempt while throwing for over 2200 yards and 12 touchdowns already. We look for him to have his way with a very disappointing San Diego defense that is allowing 366.3 total yards per game overall and 392.2 yards per game on the road.
Meanwhile, all is not well with the Chargers under Norv Turner, and we expect them to continue to underperform all year. In fact, despite their record, the Saints may be better than any team that San Diego has beaten this year, as their three wins have come vs. the Jets, Raiders and overrated Patriots.
Take the Saints as underdogs to pull the outright upset across the Atlantic.
Pick: Saints +3
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: 2* Under 45
The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday’s match up between the host Eagles and the visiting Atlanta Falcons. Both Teams enter Sunday’s contest off of their bye week and having won their last game prior to the open date.
Philadelphia has been very strong coming off their bye posting a record of 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS but the key for us in this contest is they have only allowed 8.8 points per game off their bye.
Both teams have strong “Under” tendencies coming off their bye week as Atlanta is 8-0-2 Under during the last decade and Philly has gone “Under” in nine straight games off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defensive front presents a huge problem for rookie QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons as they rank number 2 in the NFL on our defensive index rating with a rating of 4.3. They are second only to Pittsburgh who has a 2.94 YPA while the Eagles check in with a 3.54 YPA.
The Eagles defense is tied for the NFC lead with 21 sacks this season and they love to blitz which may be too much for Ryan’s first trip to Philly. Eagles Safety Brian Dawkins is one of five Defensive Backs in NFL history with 20 or more sacks in their career. A tough place and a tough “D” for young Ryan to contend with on Sunday in Philadelphia.
The Falcons offense averages 291 yards per game and only 15.8 points per game on the road. The Eagles defense is only allowing 10.7 points per game at home this season. The Eagles offense averages 345 yards per game and 23.3 points per game at home this year. The Falcons defense is allowing 24 points per game on the highway this season.
ATLANTA is 14-5 Under in road games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 Under in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 Under as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, 13-3 Under as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.
The Falcons are 12-31 Under on the road. The Falcons are 0-8 Under on the road when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Falcons are 3-13 Under on the road when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Falcons are 4-14 Under as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
The Eagles are 0-13 Under as a favorite the week after their bye. The Eagles are 1-16-1 Under as a 7+ favorite. The Eagles are 0-8-1 Under as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 0-7-1 Under as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.
With strong fundamental support and overwhelming technical support we will make the Under in today’s contest our 2* NFL Total “Free” Selection of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Atlanta / Philadelphia Under 45
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Arizona at Carolina
Pick: Carolina -3.5
I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the league's best at home, but on the road they don't produce at the same level. Last season they 2-6 on the road but 6-2 at home. This year they are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, outscoring opponents 102-51. That includes wins over the Cowboys and the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. But, on the road, they are 1-2 SU and ATS, getting outscored by an average of score of 25-31. And, those games were against mediocre opponents (San Francisco, Washington and the Jets). This team is just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as underdogs. Secondly, they are playing Carolina. The Panthers have emerged as a force in 2008. They are 5-2 having posted wins against San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans. They have not lost against the spread in seven straight home games. In their four home games this season, they have outscored their opponents 108-33! The Cards have lost 21 of their last 29 games ATS following two straight wins. I like Carolina here at home, laying the points.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
One of our offshore contacts had this game circled early in the week. Early Sharp money on Miami pushed the line from Miami +2 down to Miami +1 -- even with the Public all over first-place Buffalo. With almost 85% of all bets coming in on Buffalo, you would think someone had Monday's sports page already!
In addition to "Betting Against the Public" and taking the same side as "Sharps" -- we like this game for a variety of other reasons:
Miami is a home dog -- and is definitely a "live dog" in a game that is expected to be close.
This is a game between two divisional rivals.
We'll sell Buffalo at a "high" after last week's convincing 23-14 win over a solid San Diego squad.
We'll buy Miami at a "low" after a 2 touchdown loss to Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins +1.5
St. Louis Rams vs New England
The Public is jumping on the Patriot bandwagon again -- after their impressive performance on Monday Night Football (MNF) against Denver. More than 3 out of every 4 bets are coming in on the Patriots. The line opened at NE -7 and -7.5 -- but the steady pounding of bets on the Pats has started to make the line rise.
We'll "Bet Against the Public" and sell the Pats at a recent high after their big MNF win. The Rams should have some renewed confidence after their win over Dallas last week. The line for this game is rising, so shop around for the best line you can get. Currently, St. Louis +7.5 at "plus vig" is widely available with some +9's around but at "expensive negative vig."
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.
The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.
Indianapolis Colts +4
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Under 45.5
Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” Dolphins kicker Jay Feely: “The field was like ice.” Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced travelling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.
If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well.
After a streak of five consecutive ‘Overs’ to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Raiders, who haven’t won consecutive games since the first week of last December, look to do just that when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.
Oakland topped the New York Jets 16-13 in overtime last week, giving the SU winner a 13-2 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 15 games (5-1 this year). QB JaMarcus Russell (17 of 30, 203 yards, 1 TD) was hardly brilliant but did have a turnover-free game, while the Raiders forced three turnovers, including two Brett Favre INTs. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski won it with a career-best 57-yard field goal.
Baltimore rolled past Miami 27-13 as a three-point road pup to snap a three-game SU slide and a two-game pointspread skid, and the SU winner is now 9-1 ATS in the Ravens’ last 10 games (5-1 this year). QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 232 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) and RB Willis McGahee (19 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had solid games, the Ravens defense gave up just 71 rushing yards and LB Terrell Suggs returned an INT for a score.
Baltimore is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings with Oakland this decade, including a 28-6 home rout two years ago giving 12½ points.
The Raiders are on ATS declines of 6-12 in the Eastern time zone, 8-16 as a non-division road ‘dog, 8-17 in October and 2-7 after a pointspread win. The Ravens are on a 5-2 ATS run overall – all against AFC foes – and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a non-division home chalk, but they are in a 1-8 ATS rut as a favorite.
The over for Oakland is on tears of 9-3 overall, 8-0 in October and 5-2 on the road, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 9-3 against the AFC and 5-2 at home. However, in this rivalry, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
San Diego (3-4 SU and ATS) vs. New Orleans (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Chargers and the Saints, both trying to regain their playoff form, travel across the pond for a non-conference clash at Wembley Stadium.
San Diego managed just seven points in each half at Buffalo last Sunday, losing 23-14 as a one-point ‘dog to give the SU winner a 24-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 26 games (6-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (22 of 29, 208 yards, 2 TDs) had decent numbers, but he accounted for all three of his team’s turnovers, with two lost fumbles and a late-game INT with San Diego inside the Bills’ the 10-yard line. The Chargers were outgained 370-263, lost the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes and forced no turnovers.
New Orleans got belted 30-7 at Carolina as a three-point ‘dog, as the SU winner improved to 16-1 ATS in the Saints’ last 17 games (6-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (21 of 39, 231 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, with his INT leading to a third-quarter TD for Carolina, and the Saints failed to score in the second half.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when San Diego claimed a 43-17 win as a 6½-point home favorite. It will be the first time Saints QB Drew Brees has faced his former team since the Chargers allowed him to leave as a free agent after the 2005 season.
Despite last week’s setback, the Chargers are still on a lengthy 47-23-3 ATS run overall, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against losing teams and 20-6-3 after a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-8 in non-division roadies and 2-5 against the NFC. The Saints are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a pointspread setback and 9-5 in non-division roadies.
The over for San Diego is on streaks of 15-5 on the road, 7-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 against losing teams, and for New Orleans, the over is on a 9-2-1 stretch overall and is 6-1 in its last seven against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Jets and QB Brett Favre look to get back above .500 when they host the hapless Chiefs in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York is coming off a 16-13 overtime loss at Oakland as a three-point road chalk, scoring just three points in the first three quarters before scrambling to force the extra session. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS this season for the Jets. Against the Raiders, Favre was below average, going 21 of 38 for just 197 yards, with no TDs and two INTs, as New York lost the turnover battle 3-0 in failing to take advantage of RB Thomas Jones’ 159-yard rushing effort.
Kansas City got shutout for three quarters in last week’s 34-10 blowout loss to Tennessee as a nine-point home underdog. The Chiefs’ QB by committee – Brodie Croyle started but got hurt, then Damon Huard got dinged, bringing on Tyler Thigpen – combined for 214 passing yards as K.C. finished with just 272 total yards, while allowing 455.
Kansas City is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this series, losing 13-10 in overtime at the end of last season but covering as a four-point road ‘dog.
The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 as a non-division home chalk, 6-2 as a favorite of six or more points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 overall, 2-9 on grass and 3-7 after a SU loss.
The under for New York is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home, and the under is also 10-4 in Kansas City’s last 14 road games. But the over is 12-4 in the Chiefs’ last 16 October contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Buffalo (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Miami (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
The Bills aim to keep their surprising season rolling and remain atop the AFC East standings when they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins in a divisional battle.
Buffalo came out of its bye week and dropped San Diego 23-14 as a one-point home chalk, bouncing back from a blowout loss at Arizona. QB Trent Edwards, who was knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion, came back and had a strong outing, completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards with a TD and no turnovers, and the Bills forced three turnovers en route to winning the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes.
Miami tumbled to Baltimore 27-13 as a three-point home favorite, halting a three-game spread-covering streak. QB Chad Pennington (24 of 35, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had good numbers, but his INT was returned for a second-quarter touchdown, and the Dolphins managed just 71 rushing yards.
Buffalo is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning and cashing in both clashes last year, including a 13-10 win at Miami to push as a three-point chalk. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests in Miami, and the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings.
The Bills are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2 in division play, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-5-1 after a SU win and 39-18-3 against losing teams. The Dolphins are on a batch of ATS skids, including 11-29-1 at home, 2-12-1 in home division games, 6-22-2 overall in AFC East contests and 2-5 after a SU loss.
The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games against losing teams and 7-2 in its last nine on grass, but the over for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-3 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Tampa Bay (5-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-3, 2-5 ATS)
The flailing Cowboys try to right the ship when they welcome the Buccaneers to Texas Stadium.
Dallas got whacked 34-14 by lowly St. Louis a week ago as a nine-point road chalk for its fourth straight pointspread setback. QB Brad Johnson (17 of 34, 234 yards, 1 TD), the 40-year-old backup subbing for Tony Romo (broken pinkie), threw three INTs, and the Cowboys trailed 21-7 at the end of the first quarter and never drew closer. Dallas lost the turnover battle 4-0 and the defense allowed 160 rushing yards and three TDs to Rams RB Steven Jackson.
Tampa Bay topped Seattle 20-10 last Sunday night but couldn’t get the cash as a 10½-point home favorite. However, the SU winner is still 22-2 ATS in the Bucs’ last 24 games. Against the Seahawks, QB Jeff Garcia (27 of 36, 310 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Buccaneers yielded just 176 total yards while rolling up a whopping 23-minute edge in time of possession.
Tampa is 3-1 SU in four meetings this decade against Dallas, but the teams have split the cash in those contests, with the host covering each time. Most recently, the Cowboys rolled 38-10 in November 2006 as a 12½-point home chalk.
The Cowboys are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 as a non-division home favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of ATS downfalls, including 0-5 at home, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-9 against NFC foes, 1-7 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the Bucs are on positive ATS stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are in a 5-13 ATS slide as a non-division road ‘dog.
The over for Dallas has cashed in four straight overall and is on additional runs of 7-1 in October, 4-1 on grass and 4-1 against the NFC, and the over has been the play in six of Tampa Bay’s last seven roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Falcons will try to keep their stunning turnaround going when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a meeting with the Eagles.
Atlanta took last week off after its shocking, last-second 22-20 victory over Chicago as a three-point home pup Oct. 12, giving the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 16 contests. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (22 of 30, 301 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his breakout game, which included leading a two-play, six-second drive that ended with Jason Elam kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired after the Bears had taken a 20-19 lead on a TD with just 11 seconds remaining.
Philadelphia also had its bye last week after dropping San Francisco 40-26 giving 4½ points. The Eagles forced three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble) en route to 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points, erasing a 26-17 deficit. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a good enough day to help Philly halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup.
Atlanta has cashed in its last two meetings against Philadelphia (1-1 SU), snapping a 6-0-1 ATS run by the Eagles in this rivalry. In the most recent meeting two seasons ago, the Eagles won 24-17 but came up short as a nine-point home chalk.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a bye, 11-4 on grass, 7-3 as a non-division ‘dog and 5-2 against the NFC. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS the last 12 years after their bye and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against NFC foes, but they have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 home starts.
The over for Atlanta is on a 10-3 spree overall, but the under is on runs of 33-13-1 on the highway and 9-1-1 coming off a bye. For Philadelphia, the under is on stretches of 5-0 at home, 15-2 after a bye and 14-6 on grass. Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head battles in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (2-4 SU and ATS) at New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Rams ride their two-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium for a meeting against the defending AFC champion Patriots.
St. Louis pummeled Dallas 34-14 as a heavy nine-point home underdog a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week and giving the SU winner a 16-1 ATS mark in the Rams’ last 17 games (6-0 ATS this season). QB Marc Bulger (13 of 18, 163 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had modest stats, but that’s mostly because RB Steven Jackson blew up for 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 25 carries, including a 56-yard scoring jaunt. St. Louis also won the turnover battle, 4-0.
New England rumbled over Denver 41-7 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, bouncing back from a 30-10 beatdown at San Diego. The Pats were bolstered by forcing five turnovers – including four in the first half – and kept Denver from scoring until a meaningless fourth-quarter TD. QB Matt Cassel (18 of 24, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient and effective, and RB Sammy Morris racked up 138 yards, all in the first half before leaving with an injury.
In three meetings this decade, including the Super Bowl after the 2001 season, New England is 3-0 ATS against St. Louis (2-1 SU), though the two teams haven’t met since the Patriots’ 40-22 road win as a two-point road pup in 2004. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.
Despite the Rams’ recent success, they still carry negative ATS trends of 2-7 overall, 2-11 in the Eastern time zone, 2-10 against winning teams and 3-6 against AFC foes. Likewise, the Patriots are on ATS skids of 3-9 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-8 after a SU win and 1-7 at home.
For St. Louis, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is on 8-3 in its last 11 roadies. Meanwhile, the under for New England is on streaks of 8-3-2 overall, 6-1-2 at home and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS) at Carolina (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Cardinals gun for their third straight victory when they make the lengthy trek to Charlotte to face the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Arizona, which had its bye last week, beat Dallas 30-24 in overtime two weeks ago as a 4½-point home ‘dog, winning on a short TD return of a blocked point on the only possession in the extra session. That made the SU winner 14-1 ATS in the Cards’ last 15 starts. Arizona finished with 276 total yards, while allowing 374, and they lost the turnover battle 3-1, but they had two special teams TDs – a 93-yard kickoff return to open the game, and the blocked-punt TD to end it.
Carolina ripped New Orleans 30-7 as a three-point home chalk last week, making the SU winner 21-1-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 23 games (6-0-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and WR Steve Smith (6 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) lead the way, and the Panthers won the turnover battle 2-0 and shutout the Saints in the second half.
Carolina is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, following a 3-0 ATS stretch by Arizona. Last year, Carolina posted a 25-10 road victory catching six points.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 8-16 in the Eastern time zone and 1-4 in their last five on the highway. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 against NFC opponents.
The over for Arizona is on streaks of 35-17 overall, 38-15 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, and 7-2 in NFC play. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on a 6-0 tear and is on further stretches of 5-0 in conference play, 5-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Washington (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Detroit (0-6, 2-4 ATS)
The Redskins hope to get their sluggish offense back on track with a trip to Ford Field to face the winless Lions.
Washington bounced back from a stunning 19-17 home loss to St. Louis by holding off Cleveland 14-11, but the Redskins failed cover again, this time as a seven-point favorite, marking the first time in 14 games that the winner failed to cash in a Washington game. QB Jason Campbell (14 of 23, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) wasn’t particularly impressive against the Browns, but RB Clinton Portis was, ripping off 175 rushing yards and a TD on 27 carries, and the defense allowed just 236 total yards.
Detroit’s woes continued in last week’s 28-21 loss at Houston, but as an 11-point pup, the Lions cashed for the second straight week after an 0-4 ATS start to 2008. QB Dan Orlovsky completed just 12 of 25 passes, but he made the most of them, netting 265 yards and a TD -- on a 96-yard hookup with Calvin Johnson. The Lions had no turnovers, but they lost the time of possession battle, 40:04-19:56.
Washington has won and covered the last two in this series, including a 34-3 rout last year as a four-point home favorite. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the home team is on a 6-1 ATS streak.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 4-1 against the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 as a road favorite, but they are on a 1-6 ATS slide against losing teams. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back spread-covers the last two weeks, Detroit still harbors nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-11 overall, 9-19-1 in NFC play, 8-18 as a single-digit ‘dog, 1-5 at home, 3-8 after a SU loss and 5-11-1 after a spread-cover.
The under for Washington is on a 4-1 run, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. But the over has cashed in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall and is on further runs for the Lions of 4-1 at home and 5-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Cleveland (2-4, 4-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The rested Jaguars will attempt to get back above .500 when they take on the Browns at Alltel Stadium.
Jacksonville dumped Denver 24-17 two weeks ago as a 3½-point road ‘dog before taking last week off. QB David Garrard (25 of 34, 276 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (22 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) led the way, but the Jags mostly benefited from forcing three first-half turnovers, which they converted into 10 points.
A week after a shocking blowout home win over the Giants, Cleveland had a dismal offensive effort in a 14-11 loss to Washington, but the Browns covered as a seven-point road pup for their third straight ATS win. QB Derek Anderson completed just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards and a TD, and though Cleveland had no turnovers, it was still outgained 351-236.
Jacksonville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes with Cleveland dating to 1999, but the two teams have split the cash in those contests. In their last meeting in 2005, the Jags scored a 20-14 road win laying three points. In fact, the visitor is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS at Alltel this season and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against losing teams. The Browns, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 16-5 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 14-4 on grass and 8-3 after a spread-cover.
For Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-3-2 in AFC contests and 10-4 coming off the bye. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on a 10-2 overall streak, including 6-1 against AFC opponents, 5-1 on the highway and 9-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the NFC for a non-conference clash against the Steelers at Heinz Field.
New York beat San Francisco 29-17 last Sunday, narrowly grabbing the cash on a late safety as a healthy 10-point home favorite to give the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 18 games (5-1 this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 31, 161 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his second straight sub-par game as the Giants finished with just 273 total yards. But New York allowed only 253 yards and won the turnover battle, 3-0.
Pittsburgh pounded Cincinnati 38-10 laying nine points on the road to win and cover for the second straight week. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 28, 216 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) played well, and backup RB Mewelde Moore (20 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs) had a big rushing day and also had a TD catch. The Steelers defense allowed just 212 total yards.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Pittsburgh won 33-30 but New York got the cash as a 10-point pup.
The Giants are on a 20-8 ATS spree and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 6-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on grass, 7-2 after a SU win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 20-8 in roadies, though they get upset in their most recent road trip to Cleveland. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, but they are on pointspread dips of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in New York’s last five overall, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road games. The over for the Steelers is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 42-15-2 at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Seattle (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at San Francisco (2-5 SU and ATS)
The woeful Seahawks, who reached the playoffs last year but have been besieged by QB injuries this season, travel down the Pacific Coast for an NFC West matchup with the 49ers at Monster Park.
Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10, but its lone touchdown in the fourth quarter allowed the team to cover as a 10½-point road ‘dog. Despite that result, the SU winner is still 23-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 24 contests dating to the 2007 season opener. Against the Bucs, Seattle got outgained 402-176, and backup QB Seneca Wallace (12 of 23, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) struggled in place of Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee), who remains out.
San Francisco lost to the New York Giants 29-17, failing to cover as a 10-point underdog by taking a safety late in the game, meaning the SU winner has now covered in each of the Niners’ last 22 games gave the SU winner a whopping 22-0 ATS record in the 49ers’ last 22 starts. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 28, 256 yards, 1 TD) continued to struggle, committing all three of his team’s turnovers (two INTs, 1 fumble), with the fumble booted out of the back of the end zone for the Giants’ spread-covering safety.
San Francisco posted a 33-30 overtime win last month at Seattle as a 6½-point road pup, after the Seahawks easily won and cashed in both of last year’s meetings.
The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games, but otherwise are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on the highway and 5-21 in October. The 49ers haven’t been any better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS tends of 0-4 overall, 0-4-1 in home division games, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 4-10 at Monster Park and 4-12 in NFC play.
The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two, and it is 10-3 in San Fran’s last 13 division contests. But the over for Seattle is on runs of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against NFC foes, 4-1 on the road and 23-10-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Houston (2-4, 1-5 ATS)
The freefalling Bengals head to the Lone Star State in search of their first win when they face the Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Cincinnati is coming off a 38-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a nine-point home ‘dog, failing to cover for the second straight week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, continuing to sub for the injured Carson Palmer (elbow), generated just 164 passing yards, and the Bengals finished with a meager 212 total yards while allowing 375.
Houston held off Detroit 28-21 for its second straight victory, but the Texans couldn’t cash as 11-point favorites, their third straight non-cover. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 31, 267 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs) had a solid game, but the huge key was time of possession, as Houston doubled Detroit by holding the ball for 40 minutes.
These teams have met just three times, with Cincy going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).
The Bengals are in ATS ruts of 0-5 against the AFC, 2-10-1 in October and 1-5 against losing teams. The Texans are also on a handful of pointspread slides, including 1-5 overall, 0-8 in October, 1-4 against the AFC, 1-4 after a non-cover and 10-22 after a SU win.
The under is 9-4 in Cincinnati’s last 13 games, but the over is 6-0 this season for Houston and is on additional runs for the Texans of 19-7-1 overall, 7-0 on grass, 7-0 against AFC opponents, 4-0 at home and 11-5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Central Florida (2-4, 2-2-1 ATS) at (22) Tulsa (7-0, 5-1 ATS)
Central Florida is the latest team that will try to slow down the nation’s most prolific offense when it visits 22nd-ranked Tulsa in a rare Sunday night game between Conference USA rivals.
Tulsa ripped UTEP 77-35 last Saturday, piling up a ridiculous 791 total yards in easily covering as a 20½-point home chalk. The Golden Hurricane have won eight straight games (6-1 ATS) dating back to a 63-7 rout of Bowling Green in last year’s GMAC Bowl, outgaining all eight opponents by at least 100 yards, including a whopping 438-yard edge last week against UTEP.
Tulsa leads the nation in scoring offense (56.6 points per game) and total offense (624.7 total yards per game), and behind QB David Johnson (69 percent completion rate, 2,397 yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs), the Golden Hurricane are fifth nationally in passing (357 ypg) and first in passing TDs.
Central Florida has been idle since Oct. 11, when it went to Miami and lost 20-14, but covered as a 17-point road underdog. The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five overall, and they’ve been outgained in all five contests. UCF averages just 17.7 points per game, and its 248.3 total ypg is worst in the nation, in contrast to Tulsa’s top-ranked offense.
Central Florida beat the Golden Hurricane twice last year by near identical scores, winning 44-23 as a 2½-point home favorite in October, then prevailing 44-25 as a 7½-point home chalk in the Conference USA championship game in December. The SU winner has cashed in all three series meetings between these schools.
The Golden Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they’re 11-23-1 ATS in their past 35 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on artificial turf. Conversely, Tulsa sports positive pointspread runs of 5-0 at home and 12-5 after a spread-cover, but the Hurricane are 2-6 ATS in their last eight October contests.
For Central Florida, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in conference and 4-0 in October. But as expected, high-powered Tulsa is in the mist of over runs of 4-1 overall and 6-0-1 on turf. Lastly, despite combined totals of 67 and 69 points, last year’s two meetings between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
Tampa Bay (8-6) at Philadelphia (9-3)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series tonight when they send Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5, while the Rays will counter with Andy Sonnanstine (15-9, 4.32 ERA).
The teams waited out a 90-minute rain delay prior to the start of Game 3 on Saturday, then played a classic, with Philadelphia pulling out a 5-4 victory on a bases-loaded infield single by Carlos Ruiz with no outs in the bottom of the ninth to take control of this best-of-7 series.
The Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at Citizen Bank Park (5-0 in the playoffs), and they’re on additional hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 13-3 on Sundays, 26-10 versus righty starters, 20-7 against winning teams, 6-0 with Blanton on the hill overall and 5-0 when Blanton starts at home. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 19-37 in its last 55 interleague games.
The Rays are still on runs of 6-3 in interleague play, 8-3 against the N.L. East, 5-2 in National League ballparks and 35-17 versus right-handed starters. They’re also 22-12 with Sonnanstine on the hill this year and 5-0 in his last five starts against N.L. foes.
Despite being down 2-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 13 meetings with Philadelphia.
Sonnanstine pitched the Rays 13-4 blowout win over the Red Sox in his most recent outing on Oct. 14, giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits in 7 1/3 innings. He’s 2-0 with 3.46 ERA in his first two career postseason starts, both of which came on the road. Including those two outings, Sonnanstine is 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts on the highway this year. Tonight marks his first career start against the Phillies.
Blanton last pitched 13 days ago at Dodger Stadium, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 7-5 victory over Los Angeles in Game 4 of the NLCS. In that contest, the burly right-hander gave up three runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings. Including a 6-2 series-clinching victory over the Brewers in the divisional round, Blanton is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two October efforts.
Blanton, who was acquired from the A’s in July, is 5-0 with 4.08 ERA in 15 starts with Philadelphia, 11 of which the Phillies have won. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA. Finally, Blanton faced the Rays eight times during his tenure in Oakland, going 2-3 with a hefty 6.05 ERA.
The under is 4-1 in Sonnanstine’s last five on Sunday, but the over is 5-2 in Blanton’s last seven trips to the mound overall.
The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-0-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 for the Rays overall, 8-3-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-3-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs, 9-4-1 for the Phillies against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 8-3-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games and 25-8-2 in its last 35 in N.L. parks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
Play:New York Jets -14
The Kansas City Chiefs coming off yet another loss last week travel to NY to take on the Jets. The Chiefs have yet to win on the road going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. Not only is Kansas City in the midst of a horrible season but things seemed to have went from bad to worse as QB Brodie Croyle suffered a season ending injury last week and Damon Huard was knocked out by an injury in the fourth quarter. In addition Larry Johnson is also facing another suspension for his altercation with a woman at a nightclub. The Chiefs offense has been horrible as well averaging only 8 points per game on the season when they have been on the road.
The Jets blew a chance last week to gain position in the AFC East as they lost to the Oakland Raiders 16-13. The Jets have not had any problems putting the ball in the endzone as they average 30 points per game at home. This week they'll be going up against a Kansas City defense that gives up a whopping 29.7 points per game on the road including 182 yards rushing per game.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: KANSAS CITY is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992. NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992.
Look for the Jets to come out throwing early, using Favre’s arm to jump out to an early lead and then turn to the running game against a Kansas City defense that can't stop the run. It's a lot of points but should be an easy cover for the Jetsons.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Jimmy The Moose
San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints
The Chargers have played under the total in their last 3 games. Over their last 3 games San Diego is averaging 18 PPG while their D is giving up 16.7 per contest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games played in October. The Saints have played the under in their last 2 games. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush in this one and his injury will hurt this team. Last year when the team's played in London, England it was rainy and the field wasn't the best resulting in a low scoring game, look for the same today. Play the under.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games and they are 14-3 ATS their last 17 after allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last game. The Browns are 8-2 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 8-3 ATS off an ATS win. Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games vs. losing teams and they are 2-6 ATS in Week 8. The home team is 0-4 the last 4 meetings. PLAY ON CLEVELAND
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints
PICK: New Orleans Saints +3.5
The Saints and Chargers take their act overseas when they at Wembley Stadium meet in London Sunday afternoon.
Playing outside the state of California has not been to San Diego's liking given their 0-3 SU record this season.
Statistically speaking, New Orleans has outgained six of its seven opponents this season while holding two of the last three foes to season low yardage while San Diego has been outstatted in five of seven games this season. Hence, the Saints are +71 net YPG and the Chargers are -39 net YPG this season.
Looks like the wrong team is favored here. Grab the points with New Orleans.
We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
SAN FRANCISCO -5 to Seattle--The Seahawks are 7-16-1 last 24 games on the road ATS. Seattle has hit the OVER in 4 of last 5 on road. OVER 41
CINCY +9 from Houston--I don't think the Texans can beat anyone by that number. Take the OVER 44.5--Houston over in all 6 games this year
WASHINGTON -7.5 to Detroit--The Lions don't cover against anybody. Detorit 1-5 last 6 ATS at Ford Field and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall ATS
CAROLINA -4 to Arizona--The Panthers have covered the last four meetings in series and are tough at home. Take the OVER 43.5--Cards are 11-4 in OVERS in last 15 games
BALTIMORE -7 to Oakland--You've got to jump on this one. The Ravens won't let the Raiders do anything offensively
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Ravens -6 1/2 (5 units)
Saints +3 1/2 (5 units)
Bills -1 1/2 (5 units)
Over 45 Falcons-Eagles (5 units)
Redskins -8 (5 units)
Browns +6 1/2 (5 units)
Giants +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 43 Steelers-Giants (5 units)
Bengals +9 1/2 (5 units)
Over 44 1/2 Bengals-Houston (5 units)
Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Colts-Titans (5 units)
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Falcons (+9) over EAGLES
Has this town ever seen a better day? The Phils gunning for a victory in Game 4 of the World Series while the Eagles look to get back over the .500 mark. And just to add a little spice, Atlanta's rookie QB Matt Ryan is representing Penn Charter. Wow! Pinch me. Don't wanna be a black cloud in the middle of all this, but we have to take a light lean to the Falcons as a big, fat nine-point underdog. Sure the Birds laid a 40 spot on San Francisco before the bye week, but, the key words in that sentence are "San Francisco." Leading up to that game, it was a 15-6 win over Pitt, a 24-20 loss at Chicago and a 23-17 setback against Washington. The Falcs are off to a 4-2 start under first-year coach Mike Smith, straight up and against the spread. And if you're wondering, yeah, I know the Eagles are 9-0 under Andy Reid coming off the bye, which is why this ain't gonna be an upset.
Seahawks (+5) over 49ERS
What has San Francisco done to rate as a 5-point favorite over anyone? As Edwin Starr would say, "absolutely nothing," so we go with the Seahawks as our Best Bet. We do expect the Niners to be pumped up with Mike Singletary stepping in for the fired Mike Nolan, but they are on an 0-4 spread run, and have covered only four of the last 14 at home. This is also, even though he will not admit it, an audition for Mike Holmgren. Every time he gets in front of a microphone or a pen, Holmgren, who is in his final year as the head man with Seattle, insists, he's gonna take off in 2009. Yeah, right. Why the skepticism? Holmgren is a Bay area native, a former high school coach in San Francisco, and a former assistant with the 49ers. Even though the Seahawks talent level is down, and Matt Hasselbeck is out, we see this game going back and forth until a late field goal wins it. Who wins? We couldn't care less! As long as it's by three.
Chargers (-3) over Saints
Talk about a road game, this one will be played at London's Wembley Stadium. And since we are talking about a road game, thought you would be interested to know that New Orleans is 0-3 away from home this season, and will be without the game-breaking talents of Reggie Bush. huge blow for the Saints, which will allow lightning, in the form of San Diego, to strike in London town.
Colts (+4) over TITANS
Every time we count Peyton Manning out, talk about him losing a few inches off his fastball, he seems to come back with an outstanding performance. Indy was 2-2 going into the Baltimore game, coming off a tight win against the lowly Texans, and the Colts crushed the Ravens, 31-3. Obviously, we're not expecting them to squash the 6-0 club from Tennessee, but we are expecting the Horseshoes to cover as an underdog, a spot where they've covered four of the last six.
STEELERS (-3) over Giants
When QB Ben Roethlisberger injured his shoulder and RB Willie Parker went down, we totally thought that this Pittsburgh club would be in trouble. Well, we made a mistake. (See, big boys can admit to mistakes.) The Steelers are 5-1, Big Ben looks just fine, hitting on 17 of 28 for 216 yards with two touchdowns and no picks Sunday, while RB Mewelde Moore filled Parker's cleats with 120 rushing yards and two TDs.
Rams (+7) over PATRIOTS
Not sure what kinda magic Jim Haslett is using, but since taking over after the bye week, St. Louis has upset Washington and Dallas. The Rams ain't gonna get the W, but will keep the final margin inside a touchdown.
LIONS (+7) over Redskins
Lets applaud Jim Zorn for leading Washington to a 4-2 record, but the 'Skins have not won a game by more than seven points yet.
Raiders (+7) over RAVENS
Since Baltimore has covered only seven of its last 23, plus-7 looks like a nice fit for the Silver & Black.
JETS (-13) over Chiefs
Larry Johnson was benched, again, and so was any chance of Kansas City covering this double-digit spread.
DOLPHINS (+1) over Bills
Miami played three solid games in a row, then came up with a clunker against Baltimore Sunday. Look for the Fish to unclunk this week.
COWBOYS (-2) over Buccaneers
Not thrilled with Brad Johnson, but can't back a Tampa team that has an 11-24 road record since 2004.
PANTHERS (-4) over Cardinals
Carolina is 4-0 at home this season, and is riding a 6-0 spread streak in Charlotte.
Browns (+7) over JAGUARS (CBS3)
Cleveland does one thing better than most teams - cover the spread. The Brownies have cashed out 16 of the last 21 times.
TEXANS (-9) over Bengals
This is a game rescheduled because of Hurricane Ike. "Monopoly" money only.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Bucs (+2) OVER Dallas (-2) -- This will officially be the week that Dallas implodes. Go with the "underdog" Bucs against a Romo-less Cowboys team.
Eagles (-9) OVER Atlanta (+9) -- Donovan Mcnabb routinely plays out of his mind after bye weeks -- factor in a returning Kevin Curtis, a rested and healthy Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson...that's a lot of offensive fire power. Their D is also healthy, and looking to eat up Matt Ryan.
Pats (-7.5) Over Rams (+7.5) -- Don't let the Rams fool you. They aren't good - Steven Jackson has just had some monster games. I like the Pats to explode offensively two weeks in a row. Moss hasn't quit yet, and he'll walk over this weak secondary.
Panthers (-4) OVER Arizona Cardinals (+4) -- The Panthers have given up 16 points and scored 80 at home in last 3 games. Julius Peppers is freakin' back! I like the Cards, but I don't think they'll hang for an entire game with with a surprisingly scary Carolina team.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
(NFC GOY)--- PHILADELPHIA -9.5 over Atlanta
The Falcons are 0-8 ATS vs. teams that average 5.65 ypp or better, while the Eagles are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 5-0 ATS off a bye week if vs. a .666 or better opponent. The Eagles traditionally have been a good team coming off a bye week as they are 11-3 ATS with a week of rest, including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 off a bye, allowing just 8.8 ppg in those last 9 with rest. The Eagles have also gone 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they played Atlanta here, winning by an average of 16 ppg. The Eagles defense has been tough all year, ranking 7th overall and 11th in scoring and will be taking on an Atlanta offense that is 9th overall and 15th in scoring. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been solid this year for them, but mostly at home and he has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes that Jimmy Johnson and this Eagles defense will throw at him. The Eagle offense ranks 10th overall, 4th in passing and 4th in scoring and they should be getting back Westbrook for this one, so look for them to have a big day vs. an Atlanta defense that is 25th overall and 26th vs. the pass. They do allow just 21.2 ppg, but I see the Eagles putting at least 30 on the board for them. Matt Ryan has struggled on the road this year and will have all sorts of problems vs. JJ's defense, so I see them having a hard time reaching double digits in this one. Eagles roll easily.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Total Of The Week--- NY Jets/ Kansas City Over 39
The Over is 8-1 when KC is off 4 consecutive games in which they allowed 6 ypp or more and 6-0 in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, while the Over is 13-3 when the Jets are off 2 consecutive games where they had a TO margin of -2 or worse and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Both teams have given up their share of points this year, as the Chiefs have allowed 27.5 ppg, while the Jets have allowed 24.3 ppg. The Chiefs have not been great on offense this year, but they may get a spark from 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen, who will be facing the 24th ranked passing defense of the Jets. NY Can score points as they are 8th in the league in scoring at 25.7 ppg and they should have a good day vs. the 31st ranked overall defense of the Chiefs. KC?s offense should be able to get at least 17 in this one while I can see the Jets putting up 27 or more. This game easily flies over the posted total.
Underdog Of The Week--- Cincinnati +9 over Houston
The Texans are 4-15 ATS off a home win and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Houston Checks in at 2-4 on the season and yet they are huge home favs for their 2nd week in a row. Of the two wins, one was by just 1 point, while the other was by 7 and this team allows nearly 30 ppg on the year. Certainly not good enough numbers to warrant being such a big fav, even though they are facing the 0-7 Bengals. Yes the Bengals are 0-7, but this team has played hard as evidenced by their game vs. Dallas and they were in the Jets game for most of it. Last week they had a topugh go of it vs. Pittsburgh, but Houston is not the Steelers. Last week Houston struggled some with the Lions and I feel the Bengals are better than the Motor City boys and they will be able to keep this game to Under a TD.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 45.5
The Under is 0-9 in the Falcons last 9 games off a bye and 10-2 in their last 12 on grass fields, while the Under is 17-3 when Philly is off a bye week and 25-7 in the month of October. This OU line seem a bit high considering the Eagles have allowed just 8.8 ppg in their last 9 post bye games and they are facing a QB that has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes he will see today. I really don?t see the Falcons getting double digits in this one so in order for this one to go over the Eagles will have to put 35 plus on the board. They have an offense to do it, but may not get as many chances as the Falcons should be running the ball more in this one and that will help the clock run. I see a 30-7 final in this one.
Buffalo -1 over MIAMI
Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams with a losing record and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win, while Miami is 2-11 ATS at home off 1 or more losses in a row and 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC East. The Bills are rolling right now as they sit at 5-1 with a 1 game lead over the Pats in the AFC East. The Bills offense has taken off this year as they are 13th in passing and 10th in scoring putting up 24.3 ppg, compared to the 16 ppg, 19 ppg and 1`7 ppg they have put up the last 3 years. The defense has been very good this year for the Bills as they rank 10th overall, 8th vs. the pass and 10th in points allowed at 19.7 ppg. One look at last weeks game vs. the top scoring team in the league (San Diego) will show you just how good this defense is right now. A few weeks back the Dolphins unleashed their wildcat offense on the Pats and it was a huge success, but teams have caught on a bit as the Miami rushing numbers have decreased in each of the last 3 weeks. Miami is week vs. the pass as they rank 27th in that department and should have all sorts of problems vs. the Buffalo passing attack that has taken off. Miami has looked better this year, but Buffalo has the edges on both sides of the ball, plus the ST edge and they have momentum. Too much for Miami to handle here.
Teaser Of The Week--- 3 Team 6 Point Teaser: Philly -3.5, St Louis/ New England Under 48.5 & Cleveland +13
2 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Carolina Over 43
The Over is 23-8 when Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 games and 12-2 after scoring 25+ points in 2 consecutive games, while the Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 8. The Arizona Cardinals are the top scoring team in the league at 29.5 ppg, but their defense has not been as good as they are allowing 24 ppg thus far. That offense will have a tough test this week vs. the 3rd ranked scoring defense of the Panthers, but I do see them still getting about 21 in this one. Carolina?s offense scores just 21 ppg overall this year, but at home that number jumps to 27 ppg. I see about 48 points in this one.
3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Cleveland +17, Pittsburgh +7 & Cincinnati +19
1 UNIT PLAY
3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Oakland/ Baltimore Under 41.5, Arizona/ Carolina Over 37 & San Diego/ New Orleans Over 40
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Diego -3' vs. New Orleans, at London
Both of these teams have been a little disappointing this season and both are in a need of a victory as they battle at Wembley Stadium in England. We like the Chargers in this matchup as the Saints have not looked good outside New Orleans and they will be without Reggie Bush and there are questions surrounding Duece McCallister in this one with the recent drug suspension talk.
Both teams lost last week with the Chargers falling in Buffalo and the Saints dropping a 30-7 game in Carolina as a three-point 'dog.
New Orleans hasn't won a game this season away from home, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. And today's game is a long way from home. San Diego is just 1-3 on the road this season but they had the game stolen from them in Denver with the official's bad call and they were right there before a bad turnover did them in last week at Buffalo.
We keep waiting for the Chargers' RB LaDainian Tomlinson to break out of his funk and deliver. But with today's game being played and what could be a choppy Wembley Stadium turf, look for San Diego QB Philip Rivers to use the short passing game to control the tempo.
This game won't be the shootout a lot of people are expecting. But we think San Diego will get a 10-point victory. They are on ATS runs of 47-23-3 overall, 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against teams with a losing record and 20-6-3 after a straight-up loss.
The Chargers crushed the Saints 43-17 last time these two met in 2004, cashing as a 6 1/2-point favorite. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups with the Saints and we're playing them to get today's game.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
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