WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Florida Panthers vs. Ottawa Senators
Pick: Florida Panthers
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-31 making 28.6 units since 1996. Play against home favorites against the money line off a home loss and in a game involving two bad teams sporting a winning percentage of 30% to 40%. Florida in a very strong role for this upset win noting they are 8-2 against the money line (+7.5 Units) against good power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on <14.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons. Take Florida.
San Jose Sharks vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Pick: San Jose Sharks
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on San Jose – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-6 for 80% making 19.6 units since 1996. Play against home teams against the money line after 5 or more consecutive losses playing with 3 or more days rest. San Jose is a perfect 8-0 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games against poor offensive teams that are averaging <=26.5 shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia is in a very weak role noting that they are 3-12 against the money line (-10.5 Units) in home games facing a good possession teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opposition over the last 3 seasons.
Detroit Red Wings vs. St. Louis Blues
Pick: St. Louis Blues
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on St. Louis (NHL) – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-35 making 27.7 units since 2002. Play on any team against the money line off a home win against a division rival facing an opponent after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals. St. Louis is also in a strong dog role noting they are 29-29 against the money line (+15.6 Units) against good passing teams averaging 5 or more assists per game over the last 3 seasons.
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Randall the Handle
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Dallas +1.30 over NEW JERSEY (REG) PINNACLE
After going 0-4 in OT games this season, I’m going to play the dog in regulation only and may change that later. Last night was about as frustrating a night as can be, as all three games had a two-goal lead and all three lost. It was similar to Saturday’s games in which we had a lead in every game going to the third period and instead of going 4-0, I ended up with a 1-3 record. It stings but like goal scorers say, at least I’m getting the chances. Tonight I’ll play one of the most favorable angles in all of sports and that’s the “play against the team returning home from a trip” angle. The Devils played four road games in seven days and three of those were against rivals New York Rangers, Pittsburgh, and Washington. The Devils have been off since Saturday and that, too, is beneficial and it’s a nice little layoff. Besides the “angle” I like the Stars anyway. New Jersey is an offensively handicapped team and it’s just not smart to lay juice with a team that will score one or two goals per game more often then not. The Stars are coming off a nice win against the Rangers and they’re definitely not outclassed here. Also, Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston are both out for the home side and those are two guys that provide some offensive punch. In any case, the Stars are definitely live tonight and I’m on it. Play: Dallas +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.70 over OTTAWA (REG) PINNACLE
Despite a 2-3 record, the Panthers have been impressive and could easily be 5-1 instead of 2-3. They clearly outplayed The Hurricanes in their opening day 6-4 loss and they outplayed the Habs on Monday in a 3-1 loss. Both those games were on the road and hard work inevitably gets rewarded. Meanwhile, the Senators are a team that can be exploited in the defensive end. They allow a ton of scoring chances and their defense does not move the puck out of the zone very effectively. As a result of that the Senators are not getting enough shots on goal (27, 23, 26 and 22 over their last four games). The Sens have been a powerhouse for years but they really started to come apart at the end of last year and frankly, things don’t look much better this season. The team is in desperate need of some quality defenseman after they traded Joe Corvo late last season and lost D-men Andrej Meszaros, Wade Redden, Mike Commodore and Lawrence Nycholat this season. The main man on D this season is Flip Kuba. Bottom line is that the Sens do not warrant being a big favorite over anyone and these Panthers are definitely not getting the respect they deserve. Overlay. Play: Florida +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO/Edmonton over 5½ -1.05 PINNACLE
It’s no secret that scoring is up this year and the NHL would have it no other way. Offense attracts customers and the NHL has been trying to market the league in the US for years. Refs are skating with their right arm halfway in the air just waiting to make a call. Anyway, what we have here is two extremely talented offenses going at one another and there is likely going to be a ton of penalties and a ton of scoring chances. Also consider that Dwayne Roloson will be between the pipes for the Oilers and he’ll be making his first start of the year. Nikolai Khabibulin gets the call for the Blackhawks and he’s been very shaky indeed. Thus, we have two potent offenses against two questionable goaltenders and asking these two to score six seems very reasonable. Personally, I can’t stand totals but damn, this one looks very beatable. Play: Chicago/Edmonton over 5½ -1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4* WORLD SERIES WAGER ( SeriesWinner PHILS +130)
In our last Series Wager, I went ahead and broke down the
match-up...comparing the advantages and disadvantages on offense, defense,
and pitching (starting & bull-pen)...For the World Series Wager we are
placing, I will instead try and pass along the many reasons, why the Value
and other "X" factors definately make the Phillies the play...
Since I am sure, just like myself...you have been watching and listening
to every so-called expert, break down the teams in detail...So I will break
it down in terms of "exploiting the market/price"
For starters, let me just say that this bet has very little to do with me
expecting the Phillies to win the World Series...because as I have explained
in the past...Future bets should be made strictly on value, and the
forseeable opportunity to profit, with very little risk later on down the
I say this because as a Pro-Sports Bettor...I would have absolutely no
problem at all coming back with a Game or 2...and looking for ways to profit
from the Rays, if I feel that they will be the ones getting the rings..
Now I didn't want to say these things to startle you, nor make you feel that
I am not confident that the Phillies can win this series...But instead, my
hopes are to get across the fact that this wager is being made with the
purpose of being able to "earn" from it...and if the Phils do go on to win
the World Series, then all the better...
So let me get to the reasons for this big bet...
For starters, we get the opportunity to back a team who is getting a lot
better price than even the oddsmakers feel is fair...In fact, the*
ONLY*reason that the Rays were brought out as such high favs, is soley
based on the *huge liability* they all have on the Rays...
Going into the respective League Championship Series, I was informed by a
handful of books that the worse-case scenario would be for the Dodgers and
Rays to advance...Because if that were to happen, the books would have taken
a hit regardless the outcome, and had very little chance to limit their
Now that the Phils knocked the Dodgers out of the equation...*all of the
risk is now on the Rays winning it *...Because of that, they were forced to
try and *limit their exposure* by making the Rays a *much higher favorite
than they truely should be*, based on actual strength...and from the sharps
I spoke with so far, as well as many of the sportsbook managers here in
town...They all agreed, other than the Home-Field edge...this Series was a
pick'em at best...
In fact, the reason for the high price, as one book put it is actually *
two-fold*...First, they hope *to limit their risk* by getting the "sharps"
to come in and pick up the value on the Phils...which I can tell you for
fact is already happening...And *second*...it was to* avoid anymore future
bets coming in on the Rays for the Series*, and it's worked as most Rays
supporters are now taking the stance, that they will instead approach it on
a Game by Game basis, as opposed to making a big future bet, by laying such
a high price...
So right there, that is more than enough reason to take the Phils for the
Series...But as I said, you make these type of wagers with the hope that
"earning" opportunities arise as the series progresses...And I believe that
will be attainable simply by the* 2-3-2 format* employed for the World
We already are seeing *Hamels favored in Game 1*.."on the road", no
less...and the books I've spoken with all expect to see the *Phils favored
in 3 of the first 4 games* *in the series*, and definately in *3 of 5,* if
niether club sweeps...
That alone should allow us the chance to get off this bet if we come to the
conclusion that the Rays will take the Series...and more importantly, by
getting* +130 for the Series*, we may find ourselves in a position where we
are getting* "plus money" to hedge* as well...
Finally, as you can see by my* GAME ONE 3* BEST BET*...I really feel that
the Phils have an excellent chance to take a 1-0 lead in the Series, and the
fact that Maddon had to switch his Game 5 & 6 starters to get to this
point...gives us a great chance for that to happen...
And historically, especially recently, shows us that the *Game 1 winner*,
has a huge edge in taking the whole thing...
But regardless of that fact, or Game 1...like I stated at the top...*This
bet is made with the reasoning that it will allow us to "earn"*...*and not
neccessarily because of the belief the Phils will win the World Series*...And
if things fall nicely, we may not even need to take this ticket back out
until the series is over...
But with all the info I have uncovered from speaking with many of the sharps
and books we have access to...The bottom line remains, that by getting such
a nice price on the dog at the start, we will be given the opportunity to
turn a profit in the *"future"*...
Let's go ahead and grab the *+130 or better on the Phils* to *Win the World
Series*...and I suggest getting down sooner, rather than later, because word
out here is that the *"outfits"* make take an even stronger position before