Newsletters 10/21 - 10/27
Re: Newsletters 10/21 - 10/27
hey guys im a new poster but a long time reader. ive been around the posting forums for yeeeeears.i love this site! ive followed the newsletters and im hoping youll post the goldsheet extra. its in line with my own picks and pretty accurate. anyhoo..you do a great job here and im glad to be part of this. :-*
Re: Newsletters 10/21 - 10/27
THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
Sometimes, we put more weight in certain technical trends than
others. Such is the case when New Mexico travels to the Air
Force Academy for a special Thursday night game. Over the past
two weeks, the Lobos have recorded the nation’s best “AFS”
(“Away From Spread”) mark, standing a +26.75 over that span.
And road underdog has long been a preferred role for New Mexico,
now 18-8 its last 26 getting points on the road. That’s a main
reason the Lobos are a featured play with HC Rocky Long in the
College Coach as Underdog system this week, as well as a
noted Power Underdog recommendation.
SAN JOSE STATE
It’s hard to ignore a recurring technical trend that extends through
parts of three seasons. But San Jose State’s success at home
cannot be overlooked, especially since HC Dick Tomey’s troops
have covered 9 straight and 11 of their last 12 at Spartan Stadium.
Which is enough evidence for us to support the Spartans when
hosting Boise State Friday night. San Jose has also caught an
updraft in recent weeks, evidenced by its three straight covers
and solid +12.25 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) mark its last 2
games. The Spartans are also a featured Streakbuster-Lose play
this week after the Broncos failed to cover last Friday vs. Hawaii.
It’s been a while since Army has caused much commotion on
the gridiron. But the Black Knights of the Hudson are making their
mark in recent weeks, covering four games in a row, and look to
make it five straight when playing host Saturday afternoon at
Michie Stadium vs. poor traveling Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs
are continuing their long-standing trend as one of the nation’s
worst road teams, dropping their first three vs. the number as a
visitor, lowering their road spread mark to a miserable 13-35-2
since early in the 2001 campaign.
Since football games and pointspread decisions are decided by
scoreboard points, not style points, UCLA looms as a worthy
recommendation this week as it travels to Berkeley to face “big
brother” Cal. The Bruins are now an eye-poppin’ 16-2 vs. the line
their last 18 as an underdog, as well as a stellar 37-18 vs. the
number their last 55 on board since early in the 2004 campaign.
They’ve also failed to lose a spread decision in their last five
meetings vs. the Bears. As for Cal, note its extended underachieving
ways as double-digit chalk (just 3-12 last 15 in role).
It’s hard not to notice how poor Wyoming has performed lately,
and there’s no reason to think things will improve much when the
woeful Cowboys travel to Fort Worth for a Saturday date vs. hot
TCU. Wyo’s pointspread drought extends more than 13 months,
as the Cowboys stand 0-14-1 vs. the number their last 15 on the
board. Meanwhile, the Frogs continue to provide great value at
Amon Carter Stadium, especially as double-digit chalk, covering 6
of their last 7. TCU is also a sparkling 15-4 vs. the line its last 19 at
AUBURN at WEST VIRGINIA (Thursday, October 23)...Auburn no
covers last 6 TY, but Tuberville 6-1 as visiting dog since ‘04, and 8-
2 last 10 as dog overall. Stewart just 1-4 vs. line for WVU TY, all as
chalk. Tech edge-Auburn, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE (Thursday, October 23)...Rocky 18-
8 vs. line last 26 as visiting dog. Tech edge-UNM, based on
Rocky’s road mark.
BOISE STATE at SAN JOSE STATE (Friday, October 24)... Spartans
have covered last 2 as series host and are 11-1 vs. spread at
Spartan Stadium since ‘06 (5-0 as home dog that span). Tech edge-
San Jose, based on team and series trends.
LOUISIANA TECH at ARMY...Ugh! Army on an uptick, with covers
last 4 TY! LT no covers first 3 away TY and last 5 on road since ‘07,
just 13-35-2 vs. line away since early ‘01! Tech edge-Army, based
on recent trends.
NC STATE at MARYLAND...Big revenge for O’Brien after getting
crushed 37-0 at home by Ralph. Ralph has won and covered last 2
in series but Terps just 3-10 last 13 as College Park chalk. O’Brien
8-6 as dog with Wolfpack and was 17-8 in role his last 25 as dog with
BC. Tech edge-NCS, based on extended team and coach
WAKE FOREST at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes yet to cover reg.-
season game at new Dolphin Stadium digs (0-3) and now 7-16 vs.
spread last 23 as host. First series meeting since ‘05. Tech edge-
Wake, based on team trends.
NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA...Hoosiers no covers first 6 TY, or
7 straight since late ‘07. IU just 4-9 vs. line last 13 as dog. Tech edge-
NU, based on recent Indiana woes.
MINNESOTA at PURDUE...Gophers have covered last 5 on line TY
and 7 of last 8 since late ‘07. Tiller 2-7 vs. spread last 9 on board since
late LY. Purdue 1-2 vs. line at home TY, 7-14 vs. line as host since
‘06. Tech edge-Minnesota, based on recent trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at NORTH CAROLINA...Butch 1-3 as chalk
TY, 2-5 since LY in role. Heels also 3-10 vs. line last 13 as chalk dating
back to the Bunting days. Eagles were 3-1 as dog for Jags LY and
6-1 as dog since ‘06, 13-5 as dog since ‘03 and 16-6 last 22 in role.
Tech edge-BC, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at CONNECTICUT...Home team has covered the last
3 meetings. Bearcats 4-1 as dog since LY, and 11-3-2 last 16 as dog
last both CMU & Cincy. Huskies 6-2 vs. line last 8 at Rentsch, 15-5
last 20 as host. Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on team and
series home trends.
ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN...UW no covers last 4 TY. Tech edge-
Illinois, based on recent trends.
RUTGERS at PITTSBURGH...Rutgers has covered its last 2 as road
dog TY, and Schiano 7-3 last 10 as dog. ‘Stache only 1-6-1 vs.
number as last 8 as Heinz Field chalk! Tech edge-Rutgers, based
on team trends.
TEXAS A&M at IOWA STATE...Chizik has covered 6 of 9 as host
since LY. Tech edge-ISU, based on recent and team trends.
KENTUCKY at FLORIDA...Cats had covered 5 straight in series
prior to LY’s non-cover at Lexington. No UK SU wins in series since
Jerry Claiborne’s Cats beat Galen Hall’s Gators 10-3 in 1986! UK,
however, is 2-0 vs. line away TY and 6-2 last 8 as visitor. Urban
Meyer 8-2 vs. line last 10 at Swamp. Tech edge-slight to
Kentucky, based on team trends.
OLE MISS at ARKANSAS...Hogs have won and covered last 4 and
6 of last 7 in series. Rebs could be in rare road chalk role, they’re just
1-5 vs. line in role since ‘03. Rebs also 1-2 as chalk TY, 2-8-1 in role
since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas, based on series and
Ole Miss chalk trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE...Ball State has won and
covered last 3 in series. Cards also 6-0 vs. line TY, and 6-2 as Muncie
chalk since ‘06. Eagles 1-5 vs. line TY and 3-9 last 12 on board since
mid ‘07. Tech edge-Ball State, based on team and series
UNLV at BYU...Cougs 10-4 vs. line at Provo since ‘06, 6-3 as DD
home chalk that span. Rebs just 2-11 vs. line last 13 as MWC visitor.
Tech edge-BYU, based on team trends.
DUKE at VANDERBILT...Dores 6-1 vs. line TY, 3-0 vs. line at
Nashville. But Dores 1-4 in rare DD chalk role since ‘05. Duke 8-5 as
road dog since ‘06 (0-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Duke, based
on extended trends.
RICE at TULANE...Dog has covered the last 3 years in series. Dog
has covered in 5 of first 6 Tulane games TY. Owls 15-9 last 24 as
short. Tech edge-Rice, based on team and series trends.
FRESNO STATE at UTAH STATE...Utags have covered last 3
series. Fresno no covers last 5 TY and 0-2 as road chalk, now just
1-8 vs. line last 9 laying points away from home. Tech edge-slight
to USU, based on series and team trends.
SMU at NAVY...SMU 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 TY and 4-1-1 last 6, also
2-0-1 last 3 as road dog. Mids 2-5 as chalk since LY, 3-8 as Annapolis
chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-SMU, based on team trends.
ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...Visitor has covered 6 of last 7 in
series (although the loss came LY), and dog has covered 5 of last
6 meetings. Bama has covered last 3 trips to Knoxville, although this
time the Tide will be favored. UT 4-1 as home dog since ‘06 (0-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to Tennessee, based on team trends.
OREGON at ARIZONA STATE...Sun Devils no wins or covers last
4 TY, now 1-9 vs. number last 10 on board since late ‘07. Sun Devils
1-4 vs. number last 5 at Tempe. Ducks have won and covered last
3 in series. Tech edge-Oregon, based on series and recent
UCLA at CAL...Neuheisel 4-2 vs. Line as dog TY, and Bruins now
16-2 vs. number last 18 as dog. UCLA 37-18 vs. line last 54 on board
since early ‘04! Bruins have also covered last 4 in ‘08 and are 3-0-
2 vs. line last 5 vs. Cal. Bears 3-12 vs. number last 15 as DD chalk.
Tech edge-UCLA, based on team and series trends.
KENT STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...Road team has won and covered
last 3 meetings. RedHawks 0-2 as chalk TY, 0-8 in role since ‘06.
Although Flashes no covers last 7 away from home. Tech edge-
Kent State, based on series and team trends.
VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH...Big home-field series, with host
covering 9 of last 10 and 11 of last 13 meetings. Paul Johnson 5-0
vs. line TY. Groh 0-2 vs. line as visitor TY, 9-25 vs. spread last 34
in role! Tech edge-GT, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS...Horns have mostly had OSU’s
number lately, covering last 2 and 7 of last 9 meetings. Horns haven’t
lost to Cowboys since ‘97. Mack 18-6 vs. line last 24 as Austin chalk.
Tech edge-Texas, based on team and series trends.
GEORGIA at LSU...Tigers 1-6 vs. line last 7 at Baton Rouge. Richt
7-2 as dog since ‘05, 5-0 last 5 as dog away from home. Tech edge-
Georgia, based on team trends.
OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE...KSU failed to cover its last try
as home dog, vs. Texas Tech. Cats no covers last 2 at Manhattan
but still 14-7 vs. number last 21 as host (though just 4-4 as home dog
that span). Stoops 15-7-1 last 23 laying DDs. Tech edge-OU,
based on team trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at MICHIGAN...Wolverines wobbling for Rich,
only 1-5 vs. line thus far. Spartans 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from East
Lansing and have covered last 2 as road chalk. Tech edge-MSU,
based on recent trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE...Beamer 17-4 vs. number last
21 as visitor and 12-3 as dog since ‘01! Bowden 5-14 vs. line last 19
as home chalk. Tech edge-VT, based on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Road team has covered
first 7 BGSU games TY, and Falcons now 13-5 vs. line last 18
as visitor. NIU 1-6 last 7 as Dekalb chalk. Tech edge-BGSU, based
on team trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...Mumme not often chalk, but he is
3-1-1 in role since ‘06. Idaho no covers last 9 at Kibbie Dome, and just
2-13 last 15 on board. Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based on team
WYOMING at TCU...Wyo no covers last 3 in series as well as NO
COVERS last 15 on board (0-14-1 vs. line!). Frogs 6-1 as DD home
chalk since ‘06, and Patterson 4-1 vs. line last 5 laying 21 or more.
Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...CMU has covered last 4
meetings. Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on series trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at LOUISVILLE...Home team has won and
covered last 5 meetings, the last 4 of those by BIG margins (25 or
more!). UL is 3-1 as dog since ‘07 (1-0 TY). USF just 3-6 vs. number
last 9 as road chalk. Tech edge-UL, based on series trends.
BAYLOR at NEBRASKA...Pelini only 2-3 vs. line at home TY, and
Huskers 4-8 vs. spread as host since LY. Art Briles has covered 3
of last 4 TY for improved Baylor. Tech edge-Baylor, based on
TEXAS TECH at KANSAS...TT only 1-5 last 6 as road dog.
Jayhawks 10-1 vs. line last 11 as Lawrence chalk. Tech edge-KU,
based on team trends.
COLORADO at MISSOURI...Buffs only 4-12-1 vs. line as visitor
since ‘05 (0-2 TY, counting FSU at J’ville). Mizzou no covers its last
2 as home chalk TY but Tigers still 12-4 last 16 laying points. Tech
edge-Mizzou, based on team trends.
PENN STATE at OHIO STATE...Tressel has won and covered last
2 vs. Shades and beaten him 5 of last 6. Shades 0-7 SU and vs. line
at big horseshoe since entering Big Ten in ‘93. Tech edge-slight
to OSU, based on series trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at MEMPHIS...This has become a road-oriented
series, with visitor covering last 4. Tigers 0-2 as chalk TY, 4-8 in role
since ‘05, 3-7 as Liberty Bowl chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-USM,
based on series and team trends.
NOTRE DAME at WASHINGTON...Ty no covers last 4 or 5 of last
6 TY, just 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board). Tech edge-ND, based on
COLORADO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rams haven’t been
road chalk since ‘05, and they’re 0-6 in role since ‘03. But Chuck Long
miserable, dropping 4 of last 5 on board TY and last 4 as dog TY, all
by hefty margins (last 3 losses by 25, 34, 25, and 63!). Tech edge-
CSU, based on recent trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at ARIZONA...Stoops has covered last 3 meetings
and was even hanging around into 2nd half of 49-9 loss (and near
cover) in ‘04. Pete 5-9 vs. line last 13 as Pac-10 road chalk. Stoops
has covered 6 straight at Tucson and is 7-1-1 vs. line as home dog
since ‘05. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team and series
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-AUBURN over West Virginia (10/23),
ARKANSAS over Ole Miss, BALL STATE over Eastern Michigan,
BYU over Unlv, CINCINNATI over UConn, GEORGIA TECH over
Virginia, KANSAS over Texas Tech@, UL-MONROE over Florida
Atlantic, MICHIGAN STATE over Michigan@, MISSOURI over Colorado,
OHIO STATE over Penn State@, OREGON over over Arizona
State@, SOUTH FLORIDA over Louisville, TCU over Wyoming,
VIRGINIA TECH over Florida State.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-AUBURN over West Virginia
(10/23), NEW MEXICO over Air Force (10/23), ARIZONA over
Southern Cal, CINCINNATI* over UConn, GEORGIA over Lsu, ILLINOIS*
over Wisconsin, UL-MONROE* over Florida Atlantic, NC
STATE over Maryland, UCLA over Cal, VIRGINIA TECH over Florida
State, WAKE FOREST over Miami-Florida.
RIVALRY DOGS-MICHIGAN over Michigan State@.
POWER UNDERDOGS-AUBURN over West Virginia (10/23), NEW
MEXICO over Air Force (10/23), BOSTON COLLEGE over North
Carolina, CINCINNATI* over UConn, GEORGIA over Lsu, KENTUCKY
over Florida@, MICHIGAN over Michigan State@,
TENNESSEE over Alabama, TEXAS TECH over Kansas@, UCLA
over Cal, VIRGINIA TECH over Florida State, WAKE FOREST over
Miami-Fla., and dogs in PENN STATE-OHIO STATE and ILLINOISWISCONSIN
PAINFUL MEMORY-TENNESSEE over Alabama, PENN STATE
over Ohio State.
POWER REVENGE-TENNESSEE over Alabama, PENN STATE
over Ohio State.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-FLORIDA over Kentucky@.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over New Mexico State.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-LA TECH over Army,
NORTH TEXAS over Troy, TEXAS A&M over Iowa State, TULANE
over Rice; off pointspread loss-SAN JOSE STATE over Boise
State, SMU over Navy
NEVADA at HAWAII...Wolf Pack has covered last 3 in series.
Leahey has covered last 2 TY but UH only 7-12 vs. line last 19 on
board. Tech edge-slight to Nevada, based on series trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Sly 0-4 as home
chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UL-MONROE...Road dog has won outright
last 4 meetings. Owls have covered last 6 as Sun Belt visitor. Tech
edge-slight to FAU, based on team and series trends.
TROY at NORTH TEXAS...Troy 6-1 last 7 as road chalk. Tech
edge-Troy, based on team trends.
Re: Newsletters 10/21 - 10/27
THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAY OF THE WEEK
Taking advantage of emerging team trends is a key component
of technical-oriented handicapping. And the Carolina Panthers
are developing a doozy of an advantage at home this season,
undefeated straight up (4-0) and vs. the line (3-0-1) at Charlotte.
That’s potential trouble for the visiting Arizona Cardinals, who
have also failed to cover the last 3 series meetings vs. the
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE...Ravens 1-0 as chalk TY, but remember
1-8 mark previous 9 in role. Ravens also “under” 2-0-1 at home
TY. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS (at Wembley Stadium,
London)...Saints “over” 17-9 last 26 on board; Bolts “over” 15-5 last
20 away from Qualcomm. Tech edge-“Over” and Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.
KANSAS CITY at NY JETS...Herm “under” 10-4 last 14 away from
home, and just 5-10 vs. line last 15 games on board. Tech edgeslight
to “under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.
BUFFALO at MIAMI...Bills have won 7 of last 8 meetings, and
covered all 8 of those vs. Dolphins! Bills “over” 4-2 first 6 TY, Dolphins
“over” 8-3 last 11. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bills, based on
“totals” and series trends.
TAMPA BAY at DALLAS...Dallas just 2-10 vs. spread last 12 on
board, including no covers last 5 at Texas Stadium. Dallas also “over”
first 3 at home TY. Tech edge-Bucs and “over,” based on recent
team and “totals” trends.
ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles “under” first 3 at home TY
(as opposed to “over” first 3 on road). Andy Reid only 4-9 against
spread last 13 as host. Falcs 9-5 vs. line last 14 away (all as dog).
Tech edge-Falcons and “under,” based on team and “totals”
ST. LOUIS at NEW ENGLAND...Note that Belichick just 3-11 vs.
line last 14 on board, and no covers last 7 at Foxboro. Rams “under’
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-slight to Rams and “under,” based
on team and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at CAROLINA...Panthers have covered in last 3 meetings
(‘04-05-07). Cards “over” last 3 TY and “over” 11-4 last 15 as
visitor. Tech edge-Panthers and slight to “over,” based on series
and Cards’“totals” trends.
WASHINGTON at DETROIT...Lions just 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home
and only 2-11 against number last 13 on board since mid ‘07. Detroit
also “over” 9-3 last 12 at Ford Field. Tech edge-“Over” and
Redskins, based on “totals” and team trends.
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Note that Romeo a surprising
16-6 vs. number since LY. Jags surprising 0-3 vs. line at home TY.
JV also “over” 9-4 last 13 at home. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to
Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.
NY GIANTS at PITTSBURGH...Steel “over” first 2 at Heinz Field
TY, now “over” 43-14-1 last 58 at home! Giants “over” first 2 as visitor
TY and “over” last 4 overall. Giants 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from
home even after last week’s loss at Cleveland. Tech edge-“Over”
and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO...Seattle 7-16-1 against number
last 24 away from Qwest Field. Holmgren “over” 4 of last 5 as visitor.
Niners “over” last 2 at Candlestick after “under” 8 of previous 10 at
home. Tech edge-“Over” and 49ers, based on recent team
and “totals” trends.
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON...Texas “over” 6-0 in '08, “over” 19-7-
1 last 27 on board. Tech edge-“Over,” based on "totals"
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (Monday, October 27)...Titans
have covered last 4 in series, and last 6 “under” in this AFC South
rivalry. Titans 6-0 SU and vs. line out of gate TY. Tech edge-slight
to Titans and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BUFFALO* over Miami@, NEW
ORLEANS over San Diego, NY GIANTS* over Pittsburgh, INDIANAPOLIS
over Tennessee (10/27).
FAMILIARITY-MIAMI over Buffalo#@, SAN FRANCISCO over
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-DALLAS over Tampa Bay.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over St. Louis
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