MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
NEP -3 vs DEN
Stan is betting New England tonight. Stan notes that New England at home off of an embarrassing loss last week on National TV as well will have them ready to play tonight. New England should be able to score on the Denver defense. TAKE NEW ENGLAND as STAN'S AFC MONDAY NIGHT BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
BLUE CHIP TOTAL
I'm playing on New England and Denver to finish UNDER the total. It's true that Monday Night games have been extremely high-scoring this season. While those previous Monday results have helped keep tonight's number generously high, those past games don't have any effect on how tonight's game will play out. Tonight's total was high to begin with and now has climbed even higher from it's opener. I believe that gives us more than enough room to work with. While the Patriots have still managed a winning record, it hasn't been because of their offense. In fact, they've failed to score 20 points in four of their first five games. They've averaged just 17.8 points per game overall, including a mere 15 in their two home games. They averaged only 277 yards of offense in those two home games and are averaging less than 300 per game on the year. On the other side of the ball, we find the Patriots' defense has played extremely well in their three victories (allowing 14 ppg) but very poorly in the two losses. The Broncos have enjoyed significantly better success on offense than the Patriots. A closer look shows that success came in their first three games though. They blew out Oakland in Week 1 and their next two games came against other top tier offensive teams (Saints and Chargers) which were happy to trade points with them. Over their last three games, they've faced more defensive-minded teams (Chiefs/Bucs/Jags) and have only scored 19, 16 and 17 points. Regardless of how one views the video-tape scandal, Belichick remains one of the better defensive coaches of this generation and one of the top coaches overall. He knows that he doesn't have the firepower that he once did and that in order to beat the Broncos, he's going to need to keep them off the field. While the Patriots are banged up at the running back position, that doesn't mean that they won't be running the ball. Note that they come in averaging 29.8 rushing attempts per game, which is higher than the league average of 27.4. The last meeting between these teams was in 2006. Brady was playing yet the game had an over/under line of just 38 or 38.5. It was 10-0 at halftime and the final score was just 17-7. That marked the seventh time in nine meetings that these teams combined for 48 or fewer points. Overall, the Pats have seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight against teams from the AFC West. They've also seen the UNDER go 20-11 the last 31 times that they were listed as a home favorite of three points or less. Look for those numbers to improve here as the final combined score finishes beneath the generous and inflated number. *Blue Chip
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Scott Spreitzer Comp
Penguins at Bruins
I'm playing tonight's contest between the Penguins and Bruins to go 'over' the posted 'total'. Boston has had some problems on the blueline in '08, allowing 14 goals through its first four games, or 3.5 goals per game. In fact, the Bruins have allowed four goals in three of their first four contests. They'll face a Penguins team that finally found the right line combo on Saturday night. Pittsburgh put Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the same line for the entire contest against Toronto. The move led to a four goal game, the Pens' best of the season. Now at their offensive best, we're likely to see plenty of "biscuits in the basket." Boston and its first four opponents have averaged a combined 7.25 goals per game. I'm playing the 'over' between the Penguins and Bruins on Monday night.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Denver (48) at New England (-3)
New England had a rough go last Sunday night in San Diego, but do not count out this New England team just yet. A lot of people are jumping ship on New England but that might not be the smart move. Tonight they play in front of a rabid crowd out for blood after the Red Sox dropped the ALCS last night. New England fans are getting used to winners and the pressure is on the Pats to deliver.
Belichick knows how to get his team to respond and they will. Last month they were embarrassed at home by Miami, but the next time they hit the field, they got the job done at San Francisco. Now after being embarassed nationally by the Bolts, New England will take it out on this defensively-challenged Denver team that gives up almost 26 points and 395 yards per game.
Denver comes into this game on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the road, 3-11 against teams with winning records and 1-4-1 in conference games. Look for Cassel to have a solid game against a Pony defense that yields more than 255 yards per game through the air. The more time Cassel spends in practice running the offense the more comfortable he is becoming. Expect him to take advantage of Denver's beaten and battered secondary that has just two interceptions on the season. The only one from a Denver defensive back came back in Week 2.
Denver's run defense ranks a pitiful 26th in the league. New England hasn’t exactly been cranking out big yards on the ground this season, but they will get things going against this porous Denver stop unit, especially after Cassel connects with Randy Moss on a long gainer to open things up. The Denver offense is still banged up and has struggled in recent weeks as they haven’t played all that well since a Week 3 home win over New Orleans. They’ve dropped two of their last three games including one to lowly KC. That was another example of a Denver team just not playing that well on the road.
I have a guy that I get a lot of information from who is an actuary and he absolutely loves this game tonight. In case you don't know what an actuary is here you go.
Actuaries are experts in:
Evaluating the likelihood of future events
Designing creative ways to reduce the likelihood of undesirable events
Decreasing the impact of undesirable events that do occur.
Anyway I met this guy about 5 years ago and as a hobby he does computer predictions and models regarding the outcome of sporting events, mainly college and pro football (quite a hobby, you should see what he looks like, but the guy is a genius). I find that his information is a solid starting point but in this case he absolutely loved the game and insists his models show the linesmaker made a terrible mistake with this game. His word was the reinforcement I needed to make this game, hands down, my biggest play of the season so far. I was on it for a 100 Dimes for those of you that got my Saturday email but when I got the word I decided it was time to make my move and double this play.
New England is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games after a defeat as Belichick knows how to get his team ready after a loss. They’re also 18-5-1 ATS in the month of October. Reality is that this is too low a number and we’re getting great value. New England will bring its “A’’ game tonight against a Denver team that is 6-20 SU in its last 26 Monday night road games. Take New England to win and cover tonight. Guaranteed!
New England (-3) 200 Dimes
IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ BELOW
Must play this line at -3. If you can't get -3 buy the line down to -3. This is too big a play to risk to the hook. Remember -3 (MINUS 3).