MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Nite Owl Sports

Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
3 units Under 48.5

With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.

While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.

Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --

1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.

2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.

So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.

One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Dr Bob

New England was destroyed last Sunday night in San Diego, but the public is still unwilling to accept the fact that the Patriots are a below average team. New England have been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.0 yppl by a below average schedule of teams with their offense rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average and their defense rating at 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Patriots have beaten two sub-par teams in Kansas City and San Francisco, and their win over a pretty good Jets team was a bit of a fluke considering the Pats were out-gained 4.4 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. Denver, and their explosive offense, presents a problem for a defense that allowed 8.1 yppl and 38 points to Miami and 7.4 yppl and 30 points to San Diego – the only two better than average offensive teams that they have faced. The Broncos are bad defensively (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but Denver’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than the Patriots’ offense while the Broncos’ attack (0.9 yppl better than average) has a 1.5 yppl advantage over New England’s defense. The Pats are good in special teams, but my math model favors Denver by 2 ½ points in this game. I’d really like to play Denver in this game, but New England applies to a very strong 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 62-22-2 ATS Monday night home team situation. My math model has been 59% over the years when the math prediction is 5 points or more away from the point spread, but the technical analysis favoring New England also has a 59% chance of working. I’ll have to pass on this game.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

  Tony Karpinski

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings    
Play: Over   

The Avalanche are averaging a potent 4.00 goals per game, and they have scored at least four goals in four of the five games this season. The Over is now 4-1 in Colorado Avalanche games this season thanks to a combination of good offense and suspect goaltending, and we expect more of the same when they visit the Los Angeles Kings tonight.

They are also surrendering 3.80 goals per game, and their suspect defensive play is just part of the problem. The more disturbing factor is that goaltender Peter Budaj has just a 82.4 percent save percentage, and Andrew Raycroft has not been much better at 87.5 percent.

Now the Kings are not adverse to a wide open style of play themselves, as the have won their last two games by scores of 6-3 and 4-3. They have actually gotten some nice goaltending from Jason LaBarbera, but their defense permits far too many shots on goal and eventually they start to go in, and that plays right into the hands of the Colorado style. Look for 7-9 goals to be scored in this one tonight!

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Tom Freese

Pittsburgh at Boston

Boston has dominated Pittsburgh going 21-8 their last 29 meetings are 17-6 their last 23 home games vs. the Penguins. The Bruins are 8-2 their last 10 games vs. the Atlantic Division. Pittsburgh is 5-14 in road games after scoring 4 or more goals in their last game. The Penguins are 0-6 off a win and they are 2-5 on Monday. PLAY ON BOSTON

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John Ryan

Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Florida Panthers

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Florida ? These are the types of plays that are typical of the steady does of dogs that will receive if you commit to my research. I made 34.5 units last season with 85% of the total plays 3 and 5* dogs. Florida is in a series of strong roles one of which shows they are 19-10 against the money line (+11.7 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Montreal in weak roles to stay unbeaten noting they are 2-7 against the money line (-9.0 Units) in home games off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 2 seasons; 4-9 against the money line (-10.2 Units) in home games off an home win scoring 4 or more goals over the last 2 seasons. Montreal HC Guy Carbonneau is just 3-8 against the money line (-9.0 Units) in home games off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Ben Burns

Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Under

Both teams come in off back to back high-scoring games. As a result, tonight's over/under line has climbed from 5.5 up to six. I feel that provides us with some value with the 'under.' While this is the first 'six' we've seen from either team this season, looking back at the last couple of years and we find that the 'under' has been profitable for both of them in this situation. The Avalanche saw the 'under' go 16-12 the past two seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of six or more. Looking back further and we find the 'under' at 52-46-8 when they've played in that situation since 1992. During the same stretch, the Kings have seen the 'under' go a highly profitable 67-46-3 when playing a home game with an over/under line of six or greater. That's a solid 59%. With LA games still averaging just 5.2 total goals per game, consider backing the Under.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Rocketman

Colorado / Los Angeles
Play: 3* Colorado -125

Los Angeles is 12-40 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Avalanche are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 15-43 in their last 58 games following a win. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games. Kings are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Northwest. We'll play Colorado for 3 units tonight!


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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Double-Dime Bet

LOS / COL Under 6

Under new coach Terry Murray, the Kings have been phenomenal on the penalty kill this season. They have not allowed a power play goal this entire season as they have killed off all 19 chances through the first four games of this season! Offensively, the Kings have scored just four power play goals this season and three of those came against Anaheim. Los Angeles beat the Ducks 6-3 in that game because Anaheim, as usual, decided to get penalty-happy. The Ducks continued their trend from last season as being one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Kings took advantage and won that game in a rout. However, take a look at the Kings other two games for a true look into what their offense is doing this season. Los Angeles managed a total of just one goal in their first two games this season. Then, in their most recent game, the Kings were actually down 3-1 with about 22 minutes to go in the game before rallying for two goals to send the game into overtime where they won 4-3. As you can see, the Kings tendency has been to rely on their defense and penalty killing (when needed) and so tonight?s total (at a 6) is offering some significant line value for a play on the under! The Kings offense, coupled with the fact that theyve allowed just ten goals in four games this season, just does not justify this high of a total. Certainly the visiting Avalanche have more of a deserved reputation for playing more ?open ice? higher-scoring games but the Kings, at home, should be able to dictate the tempo in this one. Also, while it is true that the Avalanche have allowed a lot of goals this season, they have shown the ability to play ?cleaner? on defense too as they held the Oilers to just three goals in a tight 3-2 loss at Edmonton eight days ago. Also, this past week the Avs did a good job in holding a backs to the wall Flyers club to just two goals in a big home win for Colorado. The point is that if the Kings lull the Avs into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game we should not be surprised here. Couple that with a huge total posted on this game and the play here is clearly the U-N-D-E-R!

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Tony Diamond

1.5 Units New England / Denver Over 48

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

nature_one wrote:


Can we get Ace's NHL picks? smile

If I see it I will post it

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

BIG AL

30-1 ATS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WINNER

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Denver. Although they've had their struggles early on without QB Tom Brady, the Patriots still are a better defensive team than Denver, and they're a much more disclipined football team too. Witness Denver's turnover problems, for example (10 over their last four games, compared to five turnovers forced by the Broncos' defense). Thus, it's not surprising to see Denver on an 0-5 ATS losing streak. Indeed, the only game the Broncos have covered this season was a road game against an Oakland Raiders team that ex-coach Lane Kiffin couldn't get straightened out. New England did lose its last game -- by 20 points at San Diego -- but the Pats ALWAYS play well off a loss under coach Bill Belichick, and especially if they lost by 10+ points. In that situation, the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS since Dec. 29, 2002, including five outright wins as an underdog! Also, New England also excels in this price range, and is a spectacular 36-7 SU and 30-11 ATS their last 41 when priced from PK to -6.5 points. In these competitively priced games, coaching is a huge asset, and nobody is better on the sidelines than Belichick. Finally, Denver's pointspread problems are not limited to just this season. Dating back to November 12, 2006, the Broncos are a horrific 1-20 ATS if their win percentage has been .450 or greater. Take New England.

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Blade wrote:


nature_one wrote:


Can we get Ace's NHL picks? smile

If I see it I will post it

Thanks pal wink

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Eddie Roman
50,000 Unit Monday Night Lock

50,000 UNIT MONDAY NIGHT
BREAK THE BANK
GAME OF MY CAREER

Denver +3 over New England

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Matty O'Shea

Triple-Dime Bet

NEP / DEN Under 49

The Patriots have little chance to win a shootout against the Broncos, so look for them to stay conservative on offense like they did in their first two wins of the season against the Chiefs and Jets. This is the highest posted total for a New England game since the Super Bowl, and we all know how that turned out with Tom Brady on the field. With Matt Cassel continuing to lead the Patriots offense, I expect them rely on the running game and short passes to move the ball and control the clock. I also think New England head coach Bill Belichick will figure out a way to hold Denver QB Jay Cutler in check. The Broncos have seen their last two games go UNDER by a combined 25 points, and their last three meetings with the Pats have all totaled 48 points or less. Bet the UNDER to cash again here as my Triple Dime MNF AFC Total Play O' the Year

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Stephen Nover

Double-Dime Bet

NEP -3 vs DEN

Don't get put off by what you saw Sunday night when the Chargers destroyed the Patriots.

The Chargers' drubbing actually works in New England's favor because it keeps the spread down for this matchup.The Patriots aren't a serious Super Bowl contender minus Tom Brady. But they are much better than what they showed Sunday night. They still are a legitimate division contender with the potential to win a playoff game or two.Bill Belichick is that good of a coach. Look for him to have the right defensive game plan to confuse young Jay Cutler, who probably will be missing some of his skill position weapons.The Broncos are weak defensively. Their interior is small and their safeties slow and weak in coverage. Denver only has covered two of its past 10 road games.The Patriots' running attack is solid enough to take advantage and Matt Cassel has good targets with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and a healthy tight end Ben Watson to put up the needed points against such a weak defense.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

King Creole

Double-Dime Bet

NEP -3 vs DEN

Despite the fact that our weekend TOTALS PLAYS went 6-1 overall, we'll pass on the Over / Under in tonight's Broncos-Patriots game. But if you DO decide to play an Over / Under tonight, don't forget that all MONDAY games are already a PERFECT 7-0 O/U so far this season. That's not a recommendation, it's just a fact.

I much prefer some of the great ATS Systems in regards to tonight's SIDE PLAY.

MONDAY night non-div home favs of -5 < points (PATRIOTS) are 20-6 ATS since 1999 when taking on an opponent off a SUATS loss (broncos).... and 17-5 ATS versus and .500 > opponent.

Denver comes into tonight's game on an ATS tailspin as they have dropped FOUR games in a row against the spread.

NFL road teams with a .666 > winning percentage are 5-17 ATS since 2000 when playing off 3 or more straight ATS losses (broncos)... and 1-7 ATS in the last 3 years.

Let's expand our query by one more game 0-6 ATS since 2000 for ALL road teams off 4 straight ATS losses in which they were favored by -3 or more points in ALL four games (broncos).

After scoring ton of points to start the season, the offense has dried up for Denver in their last 3 games... as they have scored only 19, 16, and 17 points.

0-5 ATS since 1992 for ALL NFL teams who scored 30+ points in 3 straight games... and then 20 < points in their last 3 games (broncos).

The Pats are glad to return home after struggling to put up points last week against the Chargers on Sunday night.

8-1 ATS in the last 4 years: NFL home teams who scored 13 < points last week... 30+ points in the game before that... and 13 < points in the game before that (PATRIOTS).

NEW ENGLAND is a great team to play 'ON: after they shit the bed on offense. The Patriots are 10-2-1 ATS since 2000 after scoring 10 or less points in a game... and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS since 2003.

One would think that when Denver is off a home FAVORITE loss, that they are a great "play ON". That's not the case.

DENVER is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS in the last 3 years when playing off a SU home FAVORITE loss.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NFL Football Power Play for Monday is:

10* Take New England (-3) over Denver (NFL Power Play)

Denver
• 1-14 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 2-8 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite
• 5-15 ATS when playing in the 1st half of the season
• 4-14 ATS coming off a home game the last 3 seasons

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Seabass

50* Denver
20* Boston Bruins

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