Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 49.
The Broncos lost to Jacksonville 24-17 as a 3-point favorite in Week 6. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Jay Cutler threw for 192 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Denver and Michael Pittman rushed for 109 yards on 20 carries.
The Patriots lost to San Diego 30-10 as a 6-point underdog in Week 6. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45).
Matt Cassel threw for 203 yards with no touchdowns and an interception for New England, while Sammy Morris rushed for 26 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
Denver: 4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS
New England: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
Denver most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
New England most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Denver is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver home to Miami, Sunday, November 2
New England home to St. Louis, Sunday, October 26
Re: Monday Night Football
MNF what's on the line: Broncos at Patriots
By T.O. WHENHAM
Denver at New England (-3, 48)
Denver travels to New England for this week's version of the game that John Madden used to announce. The teams have a combined record of just 7-4. That's perhaps only one or two more losses than people would have expected at the start of the year. The difference is that virtually everyone would have guessed that New England wouldn't have contributed anything to loss column. What could have been a showdown between the current king of quarterbacks and a crown prince looking to challenge for the top spot is instead one between one team with a QB and one without. The latter isn't so compelling.
In a clear sign of just how much things have changed for the Pats' this year (not that anyone with a half a brain needs any more of those), about two-thirds of the bets in this game have been made on the Broncos, the three-point underdogs. It takes a lot for the public to turn their backs on a public team, and the Pats have been the definition of a public team for much of this decade. High profile teams automatically have high profile struggles, though, so the inability of Matt Cassel to play football has registered strongly with the general public. The line has moved about as you would expect. It opened with the Pats favored by as much as 4.5, but has adjusted so that they are now up by just the key number of three.
Monday Night Football games have been completely incapable of going under the total, and the line movement suggests that that trend is expected by many to continue. It opened at 46, higher than all but the three games at 47, but then moved up to 48, the highest total of the week. The general impression could be that Denver is an over machine because they score so much, and New England is prone to stay under because of their offensive woes. That was certainly the case in the first month, but recent times have created a shift. Denver is under in their last two, and New England has gone over in two of three. The difference is in the size of totals they have faced. New England hasn't seen a total this size since the Super Bowl, while Denver has already seen two bigger this season. They covered one of them.
Offensively, this game would appear to be a mismatch. On paper, at least. The teams have similar running totals, but that's about it. Denver has passed for nearly 100 more yards per game, is averaging an extra yard per attempt, Cutler has a QB rating 17 points higher than Cassel with four times as many touchdowns, and, incredibly, Cassel has been sacked nine times as many as Cutler's microscopic two. This game might even be close if it weren't for that pesky thing called defense. Denver doesn't really play any. They are better in total yards than only virtual minor-league squads St. Louis and Detroit, and no team has been less successful at stopping the pass. They are just 26th against the run, too, so keeping it on the ground isn't much of an improvement. Matt Cassel could have a god day. On the other hand, San Diego is only marginally better defensively than Denver, and they still managed to shut the Pats down last week.
This game should be good, but it won't be as good as we expected it to be six weeks ago. That seems to describe much of what has happened this year, doesn't it?
Re: Monday Night Football
Denver at New England
By Brian Edwards
We can safely call New England’s nine-year run with Bill Belichick dynastic, but the Patriots have had a nemesis during his tenure. That would be Denver, which has won five of the last six against New England and 16 of the last 19 head-to-head confrontations.
The Broncos have won five in a row in Foxboro, where they arrive as the leaders of the AFC West going into Monday Night Football.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New England (3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 44½. Since then, the total has been adjusted up to either 48½ or 49, while the Pats are now three-point ‘chalk.’ The Broncos are plus 140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).
Denver (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) has failed to cover the number in four straight games, including last week’s 24-17 loss to Jacksonville as a 3½-point home ‘chalk.’ The Broncos couldn’t overcome three turnovers in the loss to the Jags. Nevertheless, they maintain a 1½-game lead in the division ahead of San Diego.
Jay Cutler threw for 192 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Jacksonville, but he was intercepted once and also coughed up a fumble. For the season, Cutler is completing 64 percent of his throws for 1,694 yards with a 12/5 touchdown-interception ratio.
Brandon Marshall is Cutler’s favorite target. In just five games (he missed the opener due to a suspension), Marshall has 43 receptions for 521 yards and three TDs. Rookie WR Eddie Royal has 30 catches for 321 yards and a pair of TDs.
Cutler will be working against a New England secondary that gave up three passing plays of 48 yards or more last week. The Patriots are 27th in the NFL in pass defense.
Denver starting RB Selvin Young (5.7 yards per carry) missed last week’s loss to the Jags with a groin injury, and his status for MNF is shaky at best. Bettors should expect veteran RB Michael Pittman to shoulder the bulk of the rushing load.
Pittman had his first 100-yard effort since 2005 last week, producing 109 rushing yards on 20 carries. For the year, Pittman has 229 yards on the ground and four TDs. He’s averaging 4.7 YPC.
When New England lost Tom Brady to a season-ending injury in Week 1, Matt Cassel was forced into the starting role. The results have been, well, about what you’d expect for a QB that hadn’t started a game since high school in 1999.
Cassel has been sacked more than any other NFL quarterback (19 times) and has a 3/4 TD-INT ratio. He played well in a 30-21 win at San Francisco two weeks ago, but Cassel was lousy in last week’s 30-10 loss at San Diego.
The lack of a steady rushing attack hasn’t helped Cassel’s cause. Laurence Maroney has missed three consecutive games and is “questionable” against Denver with a shoulder injury. The Patriots haven’t had a 100-yard rushing effort all year.
Perhaps Denver’s defense will be just what the doctor ordered for Cassel and Co.? The Broncos have given up more than 400 yards three times this year, including 416 to the Jags.
Cassel would love to hit Randy Moss for some big gainers to stretch the field. Moss has 20 catches for 300 yards and a pair of TDs. In 2007, he often matched those numbers over a two-game stretch.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Denver, 2-0 in its road games. With that said, the Broncos have seen the ‘under’ cash in back-to-back games.
The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Pats, 1-1 in their home games. They are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS at Gillette Stadium this season.
With a victory in this spot, New England will stay within one game of the AFC East-leading Bills. A loss would drop the Pats into a second-place tie with the Jets, who are two games back of Buffalo.
ESPN will have the telecast at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Denver had a 1-4 spread record as a road underdog in 2007.
--Denver WR Brandon Stokely, who had an 11-yard TD catch against the Jags, is “questionable” after suffering his 10th career concussion in last week’s game.
--Gamblers backing the Giants got a fortunate cover when J.T. O’Sullivan committed his third turnover of the day. When O’Sullivan fumbled at around the 49ers’ own 20 and a loose-ball scramble ensued, the ball bounced toward San Francisco’s goal line and WR Josh Morgan elected to kick the ball out of the end zone. The result was a safety that made the score 29-17 with the G-Men taking the cash as a 10 ½-point favorite.
--Here’s a personal “thanks” to Tom Coughlin’s team for allowing me to stay alive in my Eliminator League. I’m one of 13 players (of 111) still standing.
--After Sunday’s embarrassing 34-14 loss at St. Louis as an eight-point favorite, Dallas has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games. The Rams hooked up money-line backers with a plus 300 return (risk $100 to win $300). I wouldn’t be shocked if Jerry Jones hands Wade Phillips a pink slip Monday morning. Regardless, it will be a complete circus at Valley Ranch in Irving this week.
--Buffalo is 5-1 for the first time since 1995 after beating San Diego 23-14 in a pick 'em affair at Orchard Park. The Chargers, who fell to 3-4, now go to London to face the Saints
--When Washington and Cleveland went to halftime scoreless, most books made the Redskins four-point favorites in the second half. When the Browns pulled to within 14-9 late in the fourth quarter, their two-point conversion put all second-half wagers on the line. When Derek Anderson found Braylon Edwards in the end zone for the conversion, Cleveland second-half backers cashed tickets in its 14-11 loss.
--Washington QB Jason Campbell still hasn’t thrown an interception in 2008. The Auburn product has seven TD passes.
Re: Monday Night Football
Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.
Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3½-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.
Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it’s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan’s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.
Bill Belichick’s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12½-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England’s offense isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.
Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6½-point road ‘dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.
Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport “over” streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on “under” runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.
In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.
Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
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