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NFL Total thoughts week 7

NFL Total thoughts week 7

Thought I would start a new thread on the topic of totals. These are a few of my thoughts. Feedback is always appreciated.

Min @ Chi -3, 37.5
Historically these are two defensive minded division rivals. As of late CHI-TOWN's D has been looking a little on the aged side and overrated the past few years. Contrarily,  Chicago's offense is finally clicking under Orton. The special teams are due for a few runbacks (go Hester). Minny has a good defense especially in the middle on that line. The special teams are also under-rated as is the offense who finally has a QB with good estixperience. The public and "money" has pushed the line down from 39. I do not think it will go much lower and it might rise right before kickoff.

Over 37.5  (I would guess Min 27- CHI 24 in an overtime win)

Ind @ GB +1, 47

Peyton has played his 4 pre-season games in the first regular season. He is now finally back in rhythm with the game and his team mates. After that come back against HOU and the blow out last week at Balt, the team can handle one more road team. Rodgers continues to play beyond expectation even while injured. Grant is a beast and the Indy rush defense is still suspect even after a showing last week. Lots of holes = lots of scores. The money/public has moved the line down one point. This will probably be a nailbitter with a score in the last two minutes to push it over and win the game.

Over 47  (i would guess Ind 27 GB 23)

Sea @ TB -10.5, 38

Seattle sucks. Injuries have taken all the scoring away. Teams traveling to play on the east coast early in the morning usually do not fair well. TB plays good Defense. The team is running out of QB's so it behooves them to play conservative against the posh SEA team. Both teams are looking to play the clock. UNDER has been the last 5 meetings between these teams. Sunday night seems to frequent the UNDER this year. The public/money has pushed the line down a point from 39. They are in the right direction.

Under 38 (i would guess Sea 13 TB 23-24) this will be close and is my least favorite.

Leans
Ten/KC Under 35
SD/Buf Over 44

Any thoughts are appreciated.

Good luck tomorrow! 



jmaydc
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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 7

One total that stuck out to me was Ravens / Dolphins Under 36½ I just don't see any scoring in this game what so ever and can't see the move from the opener of 34½.If this gets to 37 I might pull the trigger on the under.

Thanks for the nice writeups jmaydc

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Yeah, that game confused me. I really like the Phins to win at -2.5. At home with the shit talking the coach for Balt did about the Miami players. I expect the Miami defense to step it up after they were given the "bulletin board" material. I also expect the Balt defense to rebound form being torched at home my P Manning. That freaking Wildcat offense is throwing everyone for a loop. Brown looks tough. Williams hasn't dropped the ball ina few games. Pennington is the master of the quick slant. I see 2-3 TDs from Mia with 1-2 FGs (20-24points). I think Balt will only get 10-13 points. So yeah I see a low total around 30-37. Just don't trust that turnover factor. One stat that favors Balt is that teams who lose in the last couple minutes of a game (Mia), who are favorites the next week, rarely cover (something like 60-70% of the time).

Food for thought.

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Michael Cash
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Re: NFL Total thoughts week 7

3-0 on picks (woohoo) got skunked on my sides though...

MNF
Den +3 @ NE 49

Every MNF has gone over the total.....I think the buck stops here. This line looks over inflated to me. I would go OVER if it was down around 42-43. I see the end score at 24-20ish. Denver has had the more difficult strength of schedule (19-16) and have way more offensive yards on the ground and in the air. Pats defense is old and slow, however they are still better then Denver. Pats have better special teams averaging more yards on returns and a better turnovers ratio. Pats are less penalized by the refs as well, especially at home. (still recovering from the colts 12 penalties for 120+ yards). Since the ass kicking in KC the Denver has only given up 37 points in two games. The public has been hammering the Over (MNF- big surprise) which is moving it in favor of the under. If I had to pick a side it would be NE at home. They need it more to keep up with Buffalo. They are at home. The line has moved down 1/2 point with the majority of the bets is on Denver. I was originally going with the road dog, but I was wrong on every side this week, so lean home.

UNDER 49   

jmaydc
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I want to lean towards the under with you here Jay but I have hard time bucking the trends. It usually comes back to bite me in the ass.

Truth be told I am probably gonna call it a week and just watch some sit-coms tonight.

I'm a pussy I know but I know when I am beat. A postive week for me this week just wasn't in the cards

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