SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
100% (11-0 ATS) NFL ROADKILL OF THE WEEK
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders plus the points over the NY Jets. Last week, New York was our "Roadkill Game of the Month", as Cincinnati fell into a nasty 0-13 ATS angle, and the Flyboys rewarded us with a 26-14 win and cover. But now Eric Mangini's squad is the one that falls into a winless situation. Two games back, New York put up 56 points in a blowout win over Arizona, but NFL teams which score more than 50 points, and then follow up that game with an win, are a dismal 0-11 ATS since 1980 in competitively priced games with pointspreads less than 5 points. Look for Oakland to bounce back from its blowout loss to the Saints. Take the home dog Raiders.
100% (15-0 ATS) NFL WINNER (RARE 4* PLAY)
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points over Miami, as Baltimore falls into several bounce back systems of mine that are 78-33, 55-15, and 77-26 ATS. Last week, of course, the Ravens laid an egg in Indianapolis, and lost 31-3, but Baltimore matches up much better against a run-oriented Miami team than it did against Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Ravens rank first in rush defense and give up just 66.4 rushing yards per game. Finally, Miami is a dismal 0-15 ATS since 2003 at home when NOT an underdog of +3 or more points, and not off a 3 point or greater win. With Miami off a 29-28 loss to Houston, and now favored over the Ravens, the Dolphins fall squarely into its 0-15 ATS team trend. Look for Baltimore to pull the upset in south Florida on Sunday. Take the points.
At 1 pm, our member selection is on the New Orleans Saints plus the points over Carolina. Last week, Carolina went on the road, and took on NFC South division rival Tampa Bay. The Panthers were blown out in that game by 24 points, and could suffer a hangover vs. New Orleans on Sunday. Since 1980, NFL home favorites off a 20-point or worse road loss to a division rival are a terrible 43-67 ATS. The road team has won 12 of 15 straight up in this series, and has covered the last 13 in a row, so lets take the points here with the Saints.
5* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR!
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
13-3 NFL Run
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to win one unit.
I haven't been impressed at all by the Chicago Bears this season. Last week I faded them in Atlanta, a close game, but an easy ATS cover for the Falcons. After that devastating loss I don't see them coming back strong against a surging Vikings team.
Everyone is going to be down on the Vikes after that closer than expected win over the Lions last Sunday. Not me. I think it's a positive sign that Minnesota is finding ways to win the close ones. That's back-to-back victories by three points or less. The win also gives them three 'w's in their last four games, putting them right back in the thick of the NFC North race.
The Bears have had mixed results at Soldier Field this season, losing to the Bucs before defeating the Eagles in a Sunday night game.
There's been a lot of talk about the improved Bears defense, but I'm not completely sold. Few teams have tried to really force the issue on the ground, something the Vikings will likely do this Sunday. Although Chicago is giving up only 74 rushing yards per game, they've been hit for 3.5 yards per carry. In two games against them last season, Adrian Peterson ran for over 300 yards and five touchdowns. That's a good season for a lot of backs.
I'm a lot more comfortable backing the Vikings as an underdog as they're quite simply a team built for that role. Adrian Peterson has been relatively quiet, but I look for him to bust out on Sunday, while the Vikes defense does the rest against a shaky Kyle Orton.
Play on the NY Jets to win one unit.
This certainly looks like the proto-typical 'trap game' on paper. The good news is, the game isn't played on paper.
I don't see the Jets over-looking the Raiders, that's just not the type of mindset that Eric Mangini has instilled in his team. At 3-2 there's no time for letting up, in fact, this game and next week's game against Kansas City give the Jets a perfect opportunity to gain some ground before traveling to Buffalo in three weeks.
It seems like I say this every week, but Brett Favre is becoming more and more comfortable in this Jets offense. He's not trying to do too much, instead he's letting his playmakers at wide receiver do their thing. Thomas Jones has been excellent in the red zone this season, and that has taken a lot of the pressure off of Favre and the passing game in spots where he has been prone to INTs over the course of his career.
The Raiders are an absolute mess, and that's nothing new. They're not getting nearly enough from JaMarcus Russell, especially when you consider they're playing from behind just about every week. Last week's loss in New Orleans showcased just how bad this offense is, as they gained only 85 yards on the ground and 141 through the air. I expect Russell to get himself into plenty of trouble against a ball-hawking Jets secondary.
These two teams have met twice since the 2005 season, with the Jets winning both of those games by a combined 36 points. Their narrowest margin of victory this season has been six points, and their last two wins have come by a combined 33 points.
Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to win 1.5 units.
I went against the Bengals last Sunday, and while it took the better part of four quarters to get the cover, the result was never really in doubt.
Cincinnati continues to get beaten down more and more both mentally and physically with each passing week. They're back home after playing three of their last four on the road, but how much of a home-field advantage can you possibly have when you're 0-6? Even the Bengals own fans are growing weary of this team.
Carson Palmer will miss his second straight game, leaving the quarterback duties to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The journeyman QB hasn't been completely awful, but he hasn't been good either. He has found the end zone once while throwing three picks so far this season, and brings an ugly 57.7 quarterback rating to the table.
Cue the Steelers blitz packages.
I don't see how the Bengals can gain much ground against this tough Steelers defense. The bye week has allowed them to get a little healthier, and there's even a chance that Casey Hampton could make his return this Sunday. Not as if they need any help. They're giving up only 164 passing yards and 67 rushing yards per game.
Pittsburgh will get a major boost on offense with the return of Willie Parker. Again, not as if they needed it. Ben Roethlisberger has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league again this season, completing over 63% of his pass attempts and throwing seven touchdowns and three interceptions. The Bengals haven't been all that bad against the pass, but that's only because teams have chosen to run through their swiss cheese run defense.
The Steelers took both meetings by double-digits last season. This has been an intense rivalry over the last several years, but Pittsburgh certainly has the leg up in '08. Best of luck, DC.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
WAS -7 vs CLE
Last week the Browns caught the Giants in a perfect spot. I had Cleveland on Monday night but you could see how flat the Giants were. Same thing happened to the Redskins last week against the Rams. After beating the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, Washington was flat. So we have one team that isn't nearly as good as it looked last week and another that is much better than they looked. In my opinion, the Redskins play the most physical brand of football in the NFC. I think the Skins defense gets after Derek Anderson and I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Brady Quinn in this game. My guy in Washington tells me the team was much more focused this week and are looking to bounce back at home after laying an egg against the Rams. I agree. Skins win big.**2 UNIT PLAY**
GBP / IND Over 47
Not a huge write-up needed for this one. The Colts can't stop the run. The Packers can't stop the run. The Colts have a hot quarterback. The Packers have a hot quarterback. I see these two teams going up and down the field today. At worst I think you are looking at a 28-24 games, which puts it over. My numbers have this game coming in at 58, so I see an easy win here on the over. **2 UNIT PLAY**
IND (-125) vs GBP
I took the over here too but the more I look at this game, the more I like the Colts in this matchup. I'm not a big fan of this Packers team and if you look at last week, they beat up on a Seattle squad that had a high school quarterback under center. I really like what I saw out of Indy last week. Remember, a lot of their top players missed the preseason and I think they are just starting to get in sync. The Packers are one of my fade teams over the second half of the season. Also, with losses already to Dallas and Atlanta at home, the Packers Lambeau magic is gone. The Packers will score but the Colts will score more. I'm going with the Indy ML but don't be afraid to lay the short number here, as the Colts will pull away in the second half. **2 UNIT PLAY**
TEN -9 vs KAN
This Chiefs team is a mess right now. I just talked to a friend who was in KC this week and he told me he doesn't remember seeing a team this dysfunctional and uninterested in playing football. If the Titans show up to play this game - something they almost always do - they will win this game by four touchdowns. I don't like laying this kind of wood to the Chiefs at home but this is a KC team that you can't follow historical trends with. They are just terrible. The Titans defense eats them up today. **2 UNIT PLAY**
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TEN -7.5 vs KAN
Analysis: When we last witnessed the Chiefs they were being held to 127 yards in a 34-0 loss to Carolina, of which 50 of those yards came during a meaningless fourth quarter. It was the Chiefs' lowest yardage total in 22 years.The Chiefs are horrible on offense. Quarterback Brodie Croyle is winless in seven career NFL starts. The Titans are holding foes to an NFL-low 11.2 points per game. They've held each of their last 10 opponents to less than 20 points during regulation, while averaging 23 points themselves during this span.Kerry Collins is playing well for Tennessee. He's only been sacked once despite his lack of mobility. The Titans have good morale and a huge coaching edge with both teams coming off a bye.Morale is terrible on Kansas City. The veterans feel betrayed by Herm Edwards already looking to next year. The fans are down on the Chiefs, too. Arrowhead Stadium has lost its luster. The Chiefs are 2-7-1 against the spread during their past 10 home contests.Tennessee, on the other hand, is 13-5 against the spread in its past 18 contests.The time to play this game is now as the line is just going to keep climbing.
Chargers-Bills Over 44
Forget LaDainian Tomlinson and his toe injury. The Chargers aren't primarily a running club anymore. They've become a darn good passing club. Philip Rivers has emerged as a force throwing for at least three touchdown passes in four of six games this season. He has at least one touchdown throw in 13 consecutive games.Rivers should have another big day with a healthy corps of wideouts operating against a beat-up Buffalo secondary that could be without two cornerbacks. The Bills also could be without their best pass rusher, Aaron Schobel. He hasn't practiced all week because of a foot injury.The Bills' passing attack has picked up enough where Buffalo should be able to put up its share of points against a weak San Diego secondary that no longer is protected by a strong pass rush. Trent Edwards has been steady and Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch are playmakers.Both teams are very live for special teams touchdowns, too, because of excellent kick and punt returners.