Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
We’re coming at it again today, but switching gears as we’re headed to the NFL where the Tennessee Titans will get over easy on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Many people are waiting for that one Titans let down game where they look past an opponent and slip up. Well, keep waiting because Tennessee won’t let down today at the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City has proven to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS so far through five games. There have also been off-the-field issues surrounding running back Larry Johnson and now tight end Tony Gonzalez is unhappy because Kansas City failed to trade him away to a contender.
Now, the Chiefs face 5-0 Tennessee, which is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 games on the road, is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing records and is 5-0 ATS coming off a SU win.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are 1-6 ATS their last seven games at home and are 2-6 ATS their last eight against teams with winning records. And a winning record is certainly something the Titans have.
Tennessee will continue to impress and beat up on the hapless Chiefs. Take the Titans on the road today.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Dallas at ST. LOUIS
Not sure what's gotten into my Cowboys, but I won't give up on them. Of course in this business, there are no favorite teams, and I never show favortism anyway. But I do like the offensive make-up of this game.
Last week was a jumping off point for St. Louis, and if you ask me, Dallas will be looking to force an issue offensively. The Rams have the personnel to come right back and challenge the Tampa 2 that Dallas fails miserably with, and the Cowboys, as we all know, has their own weapons.
St. Louis Coach Jim Haslett is 2-0 against Cowboys, with both victories coming when he was with New Orleans earlier this decade. Won't matter, it's all mental, and the fact he knows he can outcoach and outwit Wade Phillips - who lets his players run him - tells me the Rams are going to score.
Can't count on the league's third-best offense, so expect to see Terrell Owens' outstretched arms a couple times today.
I like this one over, as it hits the high 50's and maybe even the 60s.
3♦ Cowboys/Rams OVER
Indianapolis -1 at GREEN BAY
Everyone is in love with the Packers' defense, why? Al Harris is out. Charles Woodson's toe is booming like a Flintstone and safety Atari Bigby is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. Yet you're going to tell me this team thinks it can hang with Peyton Manning's receivers one-on-one? What a joke! This team hasn't come close to facing a machine like this.
It went to Seattle and beat up on a team that is such bad shape, Mike Holmgren has no clue what to do any more. Dallas came to town and won by 11 - and we've seen that team isn't all that it was cracked up to be - Tampa's lethargic offense won with Brian Griese, and Matt Ryan came in and dissected the secondary.
We're talking about Manning here. We're talking about a coach-QB combo - Dungy and Manning - that hasn't lost in the month of October the past four years. Last week Dungy said his offense hasn't performed this well all season; but it's clicking now.
That spells doom for the Packers. This one will get ugly.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Cleveland at WASHINGTON -7'
So the Browns finally break out on Monday night, and now the public is all over Derek Anderson and his boys this Sunday at Washington. Sorry Cleveland-backers, but that Monday night win was a direct result of your team coming off a bye, playing at home, versus a very disinterested Giants team. (Note: I gave you 200K Browns as my paid play winner last Monday night , so I know what I'm talking about).
Herein lies the problem for the Browns this time around, as first of all, they're on the road, where they've been anything but reliable, averaging 15 ppg away thus far this season. I can understand scoring only 10 points at Baltimore, but dropping only 20 at the Bengals is nothing to write home about.
More importantly, they also happen to catching the Redskins at the wrong time, coming off a bitter upset home loss to the lowly Rams. We all know the 'Skins are solid at home, going 4-1 ATS over their last 5 there, so we'll chalk up that loss to playing down to the level of their opponent (which the Redksins have been known to do). But no such lack of focus this afternoon, as coach Zorn will have his boys out for blood.
The one glaring edge the Redskins have is their vaunted rushing attack against a porous Browns run defense. Coach Crennel has tried desperately to shore up the Browns d-line, but to no avail, allowing 137 rushing yards per game on a 4.7 yard per rush average! Can't you just see Clinton Portis licking his chops as we speak! Look guys, when Washington runs the ball well, it opens up the playbook for Jason Campbell (6 TDs no INTs this season - 96 QB rating) which is when Washington is at its most dangerous.
Bottom line, don't make the mistake of following the herd in this match up, as the Redskins can and will redeem themselves by ferociously protecting their house this afternoon. Cleveland played well coming off the bye, but now on a short week, on the road, look for the Browns to take a big step backwards in this one.
Take Washington over Cleveland in this NFL match up.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has won 11 of the last 14 meetings against the Boston at home, but dropped Games 1 and 6 at Tropicana Field versus the Red Sox in ALCS. Take Boston to reach the World Series for the second straight season. The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 playoff road games and 7-1 in Lesters last 8 starts versus the Rays.
Boston Red Sox -130
New Orleans at Carolina
Tampa Bay. Carolina’s defense will contain the Saints and hopefully Delhomme will be effective and not damaging. The Panthers are 3-0 at home this season and have won four of the last five meetings. Lay the 3 points in a close battle at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina Panthers - 3
Baltimore at Miami
The struggling Ravens offensive line is hurting and rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has been a big letdown. Take the wild Dolphins at home. Miami is 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last four meetings versus Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins -3
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
The sorry Detroit Lions are scoring an average 15 points per game this season, while giving up 31.8 points. They have been outscored, 159-76. Go with the Texans. Houston's defense will smother the Lions' dreadful offense.
Houston Texans - 9½
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Seahawks are in a mess, injury riddle and will be without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Expect this contest to get ugly. The Buccaneers are 3-0 at home this season. Look for Jeff Garcia and his crew to blow away the struggling Seahawks and finally take a home game against Seattle. The Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 at home. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee -9 over KANSAS CITY
The Titans are 12-2 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, while the Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Chiefs run defense has been horrible this year as they rank 32nd in the league vs. the run allowing a whopping 182 ypg and 5.0 ypc this year. Now that face a Tennessee offense that loves to run the ball and even though they haven?t been as productive on the ground as in years past, they do have the talent on offense to hang 200 yards rushing on someone. The Chiefs offense has been deplorable this year as they are 29th overall, dead last in passing and they average just 13 ppg. Not the kind of offense you want to send up against this Titans defense. The Titans enter the game with the 4th overall defense, the 5th ranked passing defense and they allow just 11.2 ppg, which is tops in the league. The Titans are rolling and they should be able to defeat the hapless Chiefs by double digits.
POWER ANGLE For This Play: Undefeated NFL favorites coming off a BYE week are a solid 15-1 ATS since 2002.
4 UNIT PLAY
Total Of The Week--- New Orleans/ Carolina Under
The Under is 14-0 when the Panthers are divisional home favs of 3 or more and 8-1 in their 9 games in Week 7, while the Under is 5-0 in the Saints last 5 trips to Carolina. The Saints defense is off their best performance of the year in holding the Raiders to just 3 points and 226 yards, and now they look to keep it going vs. the 23 ranked scoring team and a Carolina team that really plays it close to the vest at home. The Panthers defense has been great this year ranking 3rd overall, 2nd vs. the pass and 3 in points allowed. The team has allowed 16.2 ppg overall but just 8.7 ppg in their 3 home games. Carolina?s 3 home games have averaged just 34.7 ppg, while the last 5 home games in this series have averaged 38 ppg, with not 1 of the games going over today?s total. The Saints can score, but Carolina will keep them down enough to get a comfortable win on the Under here.
Teaser Of The Week-- 3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- San Fran/ NY Giants Over 36, San Diego/ Buffalo Over 34 & Indianapolis +9
3 UNIT PLAY
Upset Special--- Baltimore +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS as a fav off a SU loss and 3-17 ATS at home vs. teams that average 175 or less ypg passing, while the Ravens are 13-4 ATS off 3 SU losses in a row and 2 spread losses in a row. Classic revenge spot here for the Ravens as they take on a Dolphins team that had one win last year and it was vs. these Ravens. Miami has taken the league by storm with their Wildcat Offense as they have piled up 407 ypg of total offense in their last 3 games, including 160 ypg and they have put up 27.7 ppg over that stretch. A closer look shows that they have not played a defense even close to the caliber of the Ravens. Baltimore has the top rated defense overall and they are tops vs. both the run and pass, plus they allow just 17.4 ppg (6th). The Raven?s offense has not been that good this year, but they will be taking on a shaky Miami defense that is 29th in the league vs. the pass and that should be able to score some points in this one. The Defense of the Ravens will shut down Miami, as they get revenge for last years loss. Miami is better, but not all the way back just yet.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Tennessee -3, San Diego +7 & Baltimore +9
2 UNIT PLAYS
NY Jets -3 over OAKLAND
The Raiders are 2-15 SU & ATS as home dogs of 8 or less and 3-13 ATS after 2 or more losses by 10 points or more, while the Jets are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Raiders are a mess right now especially on the offensive side of the ball, where they are ranked 23rd overall, 29th in passing and they average just 16.2 ppg (27th). Their lone bright spot on offense is the running attack that ranks 4th in the league, at 141 ypg and 4.6 ypc. If running the ball is the Raiders only option then they are in trouble, as they will be taking on a Jets squad that allows just 69 ypg and 2.9 ypc on the ground this year. The Raider defense has not been that good either,as they are 25th overall and 27th in points allowed. The Raiders pass defense has also been shaky as it is ranked 25th overall, allowing 233.8 ypg and 7.4 ypa and a leaky pass defense is not good when taking on Brett Favre and the new look Jets. The Jets offense averages 210 ypg through the air and they are 6th in the league in scoring at 28 ppg. The Raiders have been outscored by 10.8 ppg on the year and the Jets should have no problems coming in here and walking out with at least a TD win.
San Diego/ Buffalo Over 44
The Over is 13-4-2 in Chargers last 19 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the AFC West, while the Over is 10-3 in Buffalo?s last 13 on Turf and 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Chargers offense is ranked 8th in passing and #1 in scoring at 29.7 ppg. having scored 24 or more points in all but 1 of their games thus far. It?s true the defense is coming around, but they still allow 23.2 ppg on the year and their pass defense is ranked 31st in the league. The Buffalo offense comes in ranked 13th in passing and they score a solid 25.2 ppg (10th) and they should have some success vs. a suspect San Diego pass defense. The Buffalo defense is ranked 9th overall, but they do allow 20.8 ppg and I do see the chargers getting at least 28 points off them in this one. San Diego should win the game but it will be a high scoring one.
1 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego +1 Over BUFFALO
The Chargers are 16-4 ATS vs. conference opponents and 14-3 ATS after gaining at least 7 yards per play in their last game, while NFL teams are 3-12-1 ATS, in game 6 if they are off their 1st loss of the season and are playing a non-division opponent. This is a huge game for the Chargers as they look to get back above the .500 mark and they really seem poised to go on another run like last year after they had a slow start. I know the Bills are 4-1 on the year, but a closer looks shows us that not one of their 4 wins was vs. a winning team. I know San Diego has a .500 record, but they are still much better than the teams that Buffalo beat. The Chargers have the much better offense in this game, while the defense is starting to come around and they should be able to get a nice solid road win here.
CINCINNATI +9.5 over Pittsburgh
The Bengals are 15-3 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a road win and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7, while the 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 1-7 ATS in road games off a win. I know the Steelers have done well in this series and that they are 4-1 taking on an 0-6 team, but I don?t feel that the Steelers have been that impressive this year, while I see the Bengals getting closer to that elusive win. Also take note that home teams, with a 25% or less winning pct that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and are now taking on winning team are 35-8 ATS. Bengals go to 0-7, but it will be close
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Boston at Tampa Bay
The Red Sox look to complete the comeback from a 3-1 series deficit and build on their 9-0 record in ALCS elimination games under manager Terry Francona. Boston is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130).
Game 927-928: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.879; Tampa Bay 15.190
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over
San Francisco at NY Giants
The Giants look to bounce back from their Monday night loss and take advantage of a 49ers team that is 0-3 ATS against the NFC East over the last three seasons. New York is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-10 1/2).
Game 405-406: Tennessee at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 139.073; Kansas City 125.938
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 13; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8; 35
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-8); Over
Game 407-408: San Diego at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.500; Buffalo 132.151
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Pick; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego; Over
Game 409-410: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.342; Cincinnati 128.060
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+9 1/2); Over
Game 411-412: Baltimore at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 130.407; Miami 129.907
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over
Game 413-414: Dallas at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 133.256; St. Louis 129.451
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 39
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under
Game 415-416: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 132.219; Chicago 139.507
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Over
Game 417-418: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.063; Carolina 134.239
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over
Game 419-420: San Francisco at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 123.445; NY Giants 139.686
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-10 1/2); Under
Game 421-422: Detroit at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.021; Houston 130.389
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13; 50
Vegas Line: Houston by 8; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8); Over
Game 423-424: NY Jets at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.436; Oakland 128.177
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 37
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under
Game 425-426: Cleveland at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.795; Washington 135.699
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Washington by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7); Over
Game 427-428: Indianapolis at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.061; Green Bay 136.566
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Under
Game 429-430: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 123.716; Tampa Bay 140.803
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 17; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 10 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-10 1/2); Over
MONDAY, OCTOBER 20
Game 431-432: Denver at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.825; New England 137.000
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over