Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

San Francisco at NY GIANTS -10'

Quick turnaround for the Giants, as Big Blue got their first taste of defeat this season on Monday night in a clunker at Cleveland.

G-Man expects the Giants to turn their fortunes around against San Francisco this afternoon at home.

The 49ers make the cross-country trek having lost their last 3 games both straight up and against the spread. The Niners have also yielded a rather alarming 23 sacks already this season, and QB JT O'Sullivan has thrown 8 interceptions on top of that!

You can see where this is all going...BLOWOUT!

The Giants crushed the Niners 33-15 last year at the Meadowlands as the 9 1/2-point favorite, and San Fran is just 8-23-1 against the spread when playing in the eastern time zone its last 32 in that scenario.

With New York looking for a little redemption after its Monday night flop, and San Francisco in a 3-game slump - and having to travel east - the G-Man is looking for this one to be a blowout from the get-go.

Take the Giants.

3♦ NY GIANTS

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Bobby Maxwell

Seattle +10' at TAMPA BAY

We delivered on the college gridiron Saturday with a FREE winner on LSU and today we've got an NFL freebie on the Seahawks as they visit Tampa Bay.

You're going to hear all about the Seahawks' struggles on the road and on the East Coast. But this is just too much chalk to lay with the Bucs, we're going to grab the points with Seattle.

The Seahawks have won five of the last six meetings with the Bucs and gone 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three series clashes since 2004. Last year Seattle scored a 20-6 win over Tampa as a six-point home favorite and in 2006 the Seahawks went to Tampa and got a 23-7 road win as a three-point 'dog.

Seattle has won the last three visits to Tampa Bay and gotten the cash four of the last five times they've met.

The Bucs got a 27-3 home win over Carolina last week as a one-point home favorite, but four of their five games before that were all decided by single digits.

Seattle has backup QB Seneca Wallace slated to start tonight and he is a good choice in this one. He is mobile and makes good decisions. He sat out last week with an injury and the Seahawks had to go with Charlie Frye who had just 88 yards and two INTs. Wallace will control the tempo and the key will be Seattle's defense getting off the field and not letting Tampa control the clock.

Grab the points and play the Seahawks tonight.

3♦ SEATTLE

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tony Mathew

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Selection: Chicago Bears -3.5

This season the Bears are the superior team in several ways. They have a far better QB in Kyle Orton who threw for 1,027 yards and 8 TDs in his last 4 games, they have much better special teams, and the Bears coaching is top quality compared with that of the Vikings.

Two weeks ago against the Saints, Minnesota handed over 354 return yards and almost gave up a 3 TD punt return to RB Reggie Bush. This week their pedestrian special teams will be facing Devin Hester.

Minnesota’s defensive front line loses a lot of power when they are on the road and especially when they are not playing on artificial turf. They’ll also be troubled by the loss of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson who is out due to two broken toes and the Viking secondary is extremely vulnerable. Minnesota is also working under the direction of Coach Brad Childress who is one of the worst in the NFL.

Of their last 9 games, the Vikings have only covered 3 and the Bears have plenty of advantages to enable them to cover the tiny spread we have here.

In 6 games against Chicago, last season was the first time that Minnesota managed a win and a cover against the Bears. This means the Chicago Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Minnesota Vikings!

Take Chicago Bears -3.5

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ELITE SPORTS INFORMATION

New Orleans at Carolina

Play Over 44.5

Here we have one of the NFL’s best offenses in New Orleans and an improved-yet-inconsistent Carolina offense that should be able to put up some big numbers against a mediocre defense at home.  Sure, Carolina’s defense is decent, but the Saints very seldom play a bad offensive game under Sean Payton always moving the ball and putting up points no matter who they play.   In fact in their last 18 games, they have been held to under 22 points only once, and under 325 yards only 4 times.  That is remarkable consistency and has led to a 13-4-1 OVER mark.  Drew Brees is playing the quarterback position as well as anybody in the league, and the passing game should be bolstered by the expected return of Marquis Colston this week.   The offensive line paves the way for all of their weapons, and Sean Payton is one of the best playcallers in the business.  On the season, New Orleans is averaging 29 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play, all top 5 numbers.

Carolina’s offense has shown flashes as well, and the weapons are definitely there.  Jake Delhomme is back under center behind a rebuilt, talented offensive line, and although he struggled last week throwing 3 picks against Tampa Bay, he is a very capable QB in this league.  He steps down in class here against a New Orleans stop unit that allows 330 ypg and 22 ppg.   The Panthers have a chance to be one of the league’s most balanced offenses as Jonathan Stewart looks like a future star at RB, and the receiving corps is deeper behind Steve Smith this season.  .

Carolina’s offense has been able to sit on some big leads this season, but they are not good enough defensively to shut down New Orleans (is anyone?) here.  The Saints will get some points, and that will make Carolina open things up as well.   Carolina has also had some trouble with getting punts blocked lately, and the Saints and Reggie Bush may be able to spring a big return if Carolina puts too much emphasis on protection.  I expect both teams in the 20’s here, and while the Panthers’ defense may pull them through, Brees and company will be heard from, as usual.  We’ll call it 26-24 Carolina.   Play Over the total.

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Pure Lock

PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
PLAY: PITTSBURGH (-)

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Mikey Sports

Seattle @ Tampa Bay
Play: Seattle (+)

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R&R Totals

Minnesota @ Chicago
Play: OVER THE TOTAL

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Sportsbettingstats

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

The Vikings are coming off an ugly win over the Lions 12-10 while the Bears are coming off a tough loss to the Falcons 22-20. Both teams are .500, but the Bears lead the Vikings in the NFC North, as they are 1-0 in the division and the Vikes are 1-1. These teams were supposed to have easier times last week playing what were thought to be weak teams, but the Vikings looked bad in their win and the Bears, once again, could not hold a lead. The Bears are led by QB Kyle Orton (1386 yds 8 TD 4 TD) and his main targets are Brandon Lloyd (15 rec 249 yds 1 TD) and Rashied Davis (19 rec 230 yds 1 TD). The Bears rushing attack is led by rookie Matt Forte (459 yds 3 TD). The Vikings are led by QB Gus Frerotte (988 yds 3 TD 3 INT) and his main targets are Bernard Berrian (22 rec 436 yds 2 TD) and Bobby Wade (25 rec 287 yds). The Vikings rushing attack is led by Adrian Peterson (563 yds 3 TD), who is the 3rd leading rusher in the NFL.

Staff Pick: Forte will have to have a good game on the ground, but it will not be easy against the Vikings defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL and is especially strong against the run. Even though Forte has been impressive he is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. The Bears D, ranked 12th, is also good against the run, and Peterson needs to pick up some big yards. The Vikings found their passing game since Frerotte was named the starter, but not last week scoring only 12 points against the pathetic Lions. Orton has played well for the Bears, but he is more of a game manager than a game changing QB. If the Vikings can get to him early and often and Forte can't run the ball it could be a long day in the Windy City. The winner of this game may be in sole possession of 1st place, so this is a HUGE game. The keys to this game may be both teams' offensive lines, as they need to open up holes for the RB's and protect the QB's. Look for Peterson to have a big game and for the Vikings to rediscover their passing game, as they will win this game.

Vikings 26 Bears 17

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LARRY NESS

Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Dallas Cowboys -7

Dallas enters its game at St Louis on Sunday off a humbling 30-24 OT loss at Arizona. To add insult to injury, QB Tony Romo broke his right pinkie finger on the opening play from scrimmage of the OT period. Romo isn't the only player the Cowboys will miss in Week 7, as punter Mat McBriar fractured his right foot after having his kick blocked on the final play of last week's loss (he's out for the year) plus rookie RB Felix Jones strained his hamstring during that contest and will miss at least two weeks. Then there is the saga of Adam "Don't call him Pacman" Jones. The CB was handed an indefinite suspension by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday, further crippling an already injury-riddled secondary. All that said, I like the Cowboys in this game. The 40-year-old Brad Johnson should be just fine at QB. He's made 122 regular-season starts and was Tampa's starting QB when the Bucs won the Super Bowl in 2002. He'll have plenty of targets in T. O., Whitten and the newly-acquired Roy Williams (my prediction is that he's going to thrive in Dallas). Let's remember just how bad the Rams are. St Louis had been outscored by a 147-43 margin during its 0-4 start to the season and fired head coach Scott Linehan following a 31-14 home loss to Buffalo in Week 4. He was replaced on an interim basis by DC Jim Haslett, a former head coach in New Orleans. The Rams beat the Redskins last week in Washington (19-17), as they forced three first-half fumbles, one of which was returned 75 yards for a TD. The team's only other points came on four Josh Brown FGs, including a game-winning 49-yarder as time expired. The Rams have offered little resistance on defense during their 1-4 start, ranking last in points allowed (32.8 PPG), 31st in total yards allowed (403.0 YPG) and 30th in rushing defense (169.0 YPG). Johnson may not have Romo's arm strength but he'll be just fine against this unit, plus Barber (440 YR / 4.0 YPC) should have a big day. St Louis is averaging just 82.4 YPG on the ground (29th overall) and RB Steven Jackson has eclipsed the 100-yard mark only once this season, averaging under 70 YPG and only 3.6 YPC (has just one rush TD). The three-time 1,000-yard rusher is running behind a suspect OL which may be without Orlando Pace, who's listed as questionable with a quadriceps strain. Dallas ranks eighth in the NFL vs the run (87.5 YPG), after limiting Arizona to only 50 rushing yards on 19 attempts last week. I mentioned earlier that the Dallas secondary has its share of problems but St Louis QB Marc Bulger has yet to throw for 200 yards in any of his four starts this year and has been sacked 13 times. Let's not forget that St Louis was outgained in last week's win 368-200 in yards and finished with just eight FDs to Washington's 22. The Rams have lost NINE of their last 10 home games since the beginning of the '07 season, going 2-8 ATS. The Cowboys won't need Romo here. Lay the points with Dallas.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Brian Gabrielle

Take Jeff Gordon (+500), 1/6th unit. For the second straight week, rain washed out qualifying on the Nextel Cup circuit, so the starting grid for Sunday's race at Martinsville will be set by the points standings. That means Gordon will start this race eighth, but of course, we haven't seen these guys drive at the short, flat, paper-clip-shaped track at Martinsville yet this week, so it's tough to know whether the No. 24 really has the right stuff. But I think it does. Gordon has seven career wins at this track, and hasn't failed to finish in the top 10 since the fall event here in 2002. Unlike a couple of the other leading contenders, Gordon can simply go for a win, because he's not in the mix for the points title.

Take Denny Hamlin (+800), 1/6th unit. Both Gordon and Hamlin lost tons of track position in the March Martinsville race and had to zoom all the way through the field toward the event's end, but each did: Gordon finished second, and Hamlin won. Hamlin did suffer a bad crash at Talladega a couple weeks ago and spent the night in the hospital, but he's OK now and these look like pretty good odds for a guy who won the most recent Cup race run at this track, and did so in dominating fashion.

Take Jimmie Johnson (+300), 1/6th unit. And while we'll be rooting for either Gordon or Hamlin to win, we'll also lay down an insurance bet on J.J., who swept both Martinsville races in the Car of Tomorrow last season. At least we'll basically get our money back if the No. 48 wins, and win he might: it's been since the spring of 2002 since Johnson has finished outside the top 10 here (Hendrick really likes Martinsville), and he finished fourth here back in March. There's a line of thought that says Johnson might not want to push the envelope considering he's got a pretty big points lead, but you could've said that last year, too, and J.J. won four straight Chase races.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

WILD BILL

Tennessee -8 (5 units)
KC-Tenn Over 35 1/2 (5 units)
Jets -3 (5 units)
Browns-Redskins Under 42 1/2 (5 units)
Tampa -10 1/2 (5 units)
Denver +3 (5 units)

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Black Widow Sports

1* on Vikings/Bears Under 38

The ultimate defensive battle is in store Sunday when the Vikings meet the Bears. This huge NFC North division showdown between two 3-3 teams has a lot riding on it. The Vikings and Bears win games with similar styles. Both rely heavily on their defenses. Minnesota is giving up just over 19 points/game while Chicago is yielding just over 18 points/game. These defensive averages will drop after a big defensive battle Sunday. Minnesota cannot throw the ball, and the Bears stop the run extremely well. Chicago has found their running game behind Matt Forte to take the pressure off of Kyle Orton, but the Bears have not faced a run defense nearly as good as the Vikings Run-D is this season. If you like defensive football, then you will love this match-up Sunday. The UNDER is 23-8-1 in the Vikings’ last 32 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Bears’ last 4 October games. As the whether gets colder, the Bears’ defense gets even stronger. Take the UNDER 38 points here.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

John Martin

1 Unit on Houston Texans -9

The Detroit Lions may not win a game all year, and they’re not about to win Sunday. Not only is Detroit 0-5 this season, but they just placed starting QB Jon Kitna on the injured reserve and traded away star receiver Roy Williams to the Dallas Cowboys. This is clearly a team in transition and they are taking two steps back for every step they take forward. Playing the Vikings tough was a step forward last week, but they’ll take two steps back Sunday when they run into a charged up Houston Texans’ team with confidence. Houston came from behind to beat the Miami Dolphins last Sunday on a last-second QB draw by Matt Shaub to win by a single point. This was a huge win for the Texans, who have let a couple games against the Jaguars and Colts slip away. Now Houston has the confidence they need to play a full 60-minute game this Sunday against a much weaker opponent in Detroit. The Lions are scoring just 15.2 points/game this season while giving up 31.8 points/game. Add the numbers up, and the Lions are getting outscored by 16.6 points/game. Detroit is now 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. teams that give up 29 or more points/game. Although the Texans’ defense has struggled, this unit will look brilliant against a terrible Detroit offense Sunday. Plus, Houston’s offense can score with any team in the league. The Texans are piling up 28 points/game and 438 yards of total offense/game when playing at home this season. Expect at least 28 points from the Texans this Sunday which will be more than enough to win by double-digits. Cash in with Houston as the favorite.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Seattle Seahawks +11

After a big divisional win over Carolina and with a date at Dallas looming next week, we'll fade the Bucs in a letdown spot here. Seattle has been anything but sharp thus far and have been blown out twice on the road, but I expect to see the Seahawks, who are getting healthier (minus Hasselbeck), play a solid football game here. Seattle is actually 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 games at Tampa Bay and has won 5 of its last 6 against the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 3-13 ATS vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/attempt since 1992. Why is this? Because the Bucs have been getting terribly overvalued by odds makers against these opponents. This Seattle team has enjoyed a lot of success this decade and will not throw in the towel, especially with a confident backup in Seneca Wallace running the team. The Bucs are not 10 points better than Seattle this week. Take the points.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Colts/Packers UNDER 47

Last week's 31 point outburst does not have me convinced that the Colts are back as one of the NFL's elite offenses. This line appears more suited for last year's Colts and last year's Packers. In fact, Indy is 6-0 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons, totaling an average of just 37 ppg in these spots. Colts HC Tony Dungy is also 21-8 UNDER in road games against NFC North division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992. Indy has struggled with both the defenses of the Bears and the Vikings thus far and will continue to struggle offensively in another physical football game against the NFC North. We'll take the under.

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Jack Jones

Kansas City +9 over Tennessee

If there ever was a definition of an ugly dog it's Kansas City this week. With no Larry Johnson you can bet that 90% of the action is going to be on Tennessee, but LJ has been less than stellar this year so what's that really going to hurt. KC is just 1-4 and has gone 1-13 dating back to November 4th, 2007. The Chiefs are in rebuilding mode and Tony Gonzalez even went out on a limb last week asking to be traded. Does Herm Edwards really know what he's doing? Enough to be a NFL head coach? I just don't know.

So then why in the hell would I take the Chiefs, well they are coming off a bye and that's always a good sign. Worst part is that everyone has been hammering on the team for how terrible they are, what more could you ask for to pump you up if you have any pride in your performance. Another thing I like is how they were held scoreless in their loss at Carolina. That can't be good you might say, but NFL teams that get shutout normally bounce back in their next game due to being embarrassed. Even in the 13 games that KC has lost in their horrid 14 game stretch, only 6 of them have been by double digits.

I can't even really knock much about the Titnas since they have been dominant in racking up their 5-0 start. The only thing is that they are built on defense, and those teams have trouble winning by double digits when playing in front of a hostile crowd. They tend to control the ball more. Plus, the Titans are 11-7 the last three years on the road, but have only won three of those 11 games by double digits.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

For Sunday’s free play in the NFL, we’ll back the Dolphins as a small home chalk against the Ravens.

This line makes no sense to me at all. Yes, Miami suffered a heartbreaking, last-second loss at Houston last week, putting an end to the team’s two-game winning streak. But the Dolphins did put up 28 points (their second-highest total of the year) 370 total yards, and they were facing a desperate, winless Texans squad that had given a game away the previous week and was much better than its 0-4 record.

And let’s go back to those two wins before the Texans loss, when Miami upset the two teams (San Diego and New England) that played in the AFC Championship game last season. Actually, “beat” isn’t the right word; the Dolphins annihilated the Chargers and Patriots, outgaining both by a total of 433 yards!

Now they face the Ravens, whose offense has reverted to its 2007 form after a solid start. Over the last three weeks – all losses – Baltimore’s offense has regressed, scoring 20 points at Pittsburgh, 10 at home against the Titans and, last week, a single field goal in a 31-3 loss at Indianapolis. Last week, the Ravens managed just 209 yards and committed five turnovers against a mediocre-at-best Colts defense that was minus its best player, Bob Sanders.

All three of those picks came from rookie QB Joe Flacco, who now has one TD pass and seven INTs on his ledger, sinking his QB rating to 60.6. By comparison, Miami’s Chad Pennington has been his usual efficient self, completing 68.6 percent of his throws for an average of 220 passing ypg with five TDs and two INTs, good for a 98.8 QB rating.

Yes, the Ravens’ defense can be scary. However, they haven’t seen this “Wildcat” offense that has worked like a charm for Miami. And I think it’ll work again today. As for the Dolphins’ defense, it has yielded just 15 points and 247.5 yards per game in its two home games (by comparison, Baltimore is giving up 27 points and 285.5 yards per game on the road).

Finally, this is the Ravens’ third road game in the last four weeks – always difficult – and they’re 7-22 ATS in their last 29 on the highway (including last year’s 22-16 overtime loss in Miami, which proved to be the Dolphins’ only win of 2008). Take advantage of this short price as the surprising Dolphins move to 4-2 with a win over the Ravens, whose only wins this year came against the Bengals and Browns.

5♦ MIAMI DOLPHINS

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

Just as everything looked too easy with the Redskins last Sunday in D.C., where the Rams pulled off the upset win, everything appears too simple with the Titans today. So, I'll take the Chiefs.

Kansas City is coming off a bye week, which it undoubtedly used to regroup from a 34-0 loss at Carolina on Oct. 5, and let's not forget the Chiefs won their last home game by toppling Denver, 33-19.

I'm a full believer in what the Titans are about this season, and fully support what they've been able to do. But with Indianapolis on deck next week - on Monday Night Football - I don't believe Tennessee is going to take this game as serious as it should.

The Titans should win this game, but we're going to see Kansas City challenge them late into the game, while keeping the margin short.

CHIEFS

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Colts in Lambeau.

Sure Green Bay just had a nice road win in Seattle but that was against a Seahawks team which is flat out dismal right now. Mike Holmgren's squad trotted out their third string Quarterback in Charlie Frye in the Great Northweat and Aaron Rodgers and the visitors were able to pull away in the second half in the win. That really didn't impress me all that much and with a still banged up signal caller in Rodgers I have no choice but to make a small play on the visiting Colts.

I do not believe that all is now right again with Peyton Manning and the Colts after the drubbing they just dished out to Ray Lewis and the Ravens but I do think that things are on the upswing and with Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark the offense is starting to look a lot better and should continue on this path here against a Green Bay defense which has been shoddy and not the same team from a season ago.

Joseph Addai is injured and may miss but Indy didn't skip a beat last week as Tony Dungy has a stable of backs that will get after it. The Colts also still have issues against the run but the Packers have had issues running the ball as Ryan Grant is not fully healthy yet and therefore our weakness probably will not be fully exploited.

In the end I just think that the Colts win this game and at this dirt cheap price I'm all about Peyton and the fellas.

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Jake Timlin

I like the Bills at home. After all what is their not to like about the Bills today as they play host to a San Diego team traveling three time zones to playing well rested and good Buffalo team fresh off their bye week. I mean even though San Diego has clearly has the edge in terms of talent it will be hard for them to over come a road trip to Buffalo where the Bills under Coach Jauron are a winning 12-6 ATS at home since 2006. Meanwhile, for the Chargers overcoming an early start will be tough as the last 9 trips a west coast team has made to the central and eastern time zones to play an early Sunday game they have gone 1-8 ATS. Well thanks to the Bills riding a 3-0 ATS mark when coming off a bye over the last three years and playing at home I look for Buffalo to cruise at home.

All Buffalo!

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