Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Michael Alexander

New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders     
Play: New York Jets -3     

The New York Jets roll into Oakland with a three game winning streak for the first time since the 2006 season. The Jets stand at 3-2 both SU and ATS after the win over the Bengals last week. Favre has certainly revived this team on offense as they are averaging 28.2 points per game. Over their last three New York has averaged 37 per game. They have need that offensive fire power as their defense has averaged 26 points per game against them. However, in their last matchup against the Raiders they gave up only 3 points.

The Oakland Raiders 1-4 SU and off another embarassing loss scoring only 3 points against the Saints. Overall nothing seems to have gone well for the Raiders with not only the controversy around their now fired head coach but their performance on the field as well as they are scoring an anemic 16.2 points per game while their defense has been porous giving up 34.5 per game when they have been at home.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points since 1992. OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

This is just the third time in four years that the Jest are road favorites but then again their playing the Raiders. Favre has the Jets going in a positive direction while Oakland just shows up for games. I'm taking the Jets in this one.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Nelly

Miami – over Baltimore

The Dolphins lost narrowly last week and despite a 2-3 record Miami is the #3 ranked offense in the AFC and the fourth ranked defense in terms of yardage. Four of the five teams that Miami has faced have a winning record. Baltimore could not overcome early turnovers last week in what became an ugly outcome. The Ravens still have the top ranked defense in the league but Baltimore’s two wins came against teams that have combined for two wins. This will be the second straight week on the road and rookie QB Flacco has to take better care of the ball to be trusted on the road.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

2* Tennessee at Kansas City

And then there was one. After the Giants sleepwalked through last week's game against the Browns the Titans are now the only undefeated team in the NFL. We are still kicking ourselves for not backing the Browns in that game. How could you not knowing Cleveland entered their bye with a losing record and had to prove to themselves that they could compete with a top team in this league. How could you not go against a Giants team who entered their bye week undefeated on the season and hearing all kinds of accolades for the previous two weeks.Well, this time we won't be sitting on the sidelines. We have the same scenario this week as both teams are off a bye and Tennessee is installed as more than a touchdown road favorite. The same principals that made the Browns a big winner Monday night appear in this matchup. The only difference is that the Browns were playing on Monday night while the Titans look forward to a Monday Night Football matchup with division rival Indianapolis next week.Home dogs with bad records off a bye are always a team we will look to back, especially if they lost the previous game. But the Chiefs not only lost that game they were shutout 34-0 to Carolina. NFL shutouts are rare and the team on the losing end has extreme motivation to prove themselves the next game. Being that the next game is off a bye ensures the Chiefs maximum time to prepare.Over the last three years Tennessee has won just three road games by more than nine points. This is not a team that you want to lay big numbers with as they are only averaging 23 ppg their last 10 outings. The Titans win with defense and a solid running attack. To expect a team with that type of gameplan to win by double-digits is just too much to ask. They are averaging just 4.7 yards per play, better than just eight other NFL squads.In 20+ seasons the Chiefs have been home underdogs of seven or more points just two times. They won both of those games straight up. This won't be a walk in the park for the Titans.PLAY KANSAS CITY

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jim Feist

TEN Titans at KC Chiefs
Take:TEN Titans

Reason: Two AFC teams off their bye week....and that's the only thing they have in common. The Titans are No. 5 in total defense, the Chiefs are 30th. One team is looking forward to the second half of the season, the other is a mess. Tennessee Titans (5-0 SU/ATS) coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the business, which has been evident in their 5-0 start. We saw this in a 30-17 win over Minnesota, forcing 4 turnovers. Fisher is 16-7 ATS his last 23 as a dog! The Titans have a run-first offense for "new" offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who returns to Tennessee after a two-year stint as the Denver Broncos OC. QB Vince Young is out with a knee and emotional problems, so backup quarterback Kerry Collins (3 TDs, 3 picks) has been leading the way. He doesn’t have a lot of speed to work with, but with this defense, Collins only has to manage the game and avoid turnovers. RB LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson have been strong. They have a talented young ‘D’ with linebacker Keith Bulluck, DT Albert Haynesworth and bring back defensive end Jevon Kearse. The Titans sacked David Garrard seven times in the opener and allowed 189 total yards! "The perfect game is winning," said quarterback Kerry Collins. "Guys in this locker room aren't happy with accomplishments of the past, something all good teams do." Running back LenDale White focused this week on cuts, being able to adjust during games and blitz protection, hoping to keep Collins "as clean as possible." Tight end Bo Scaife emphasized the importance of contributing to the run game: "We want to block them every down. We want to be perfect (blocking)." Because of injuries, the defensive line had to focus this week on healing. Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin), Tony Brown (ankle), Jevon Kearse, Albert Haynesworth and Jacob Ford either rehabbed injuries or rested in anticipation for the final 11 games of the regular season. Tennessee is 13-7-1 under the total the last 21 games. Tennessee is also 17-4 when scoring at least 20 points since 2006. Kansas City (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) is a mess, with the 29th ranked offense to go along with that 30th ranked defense. Kansas City has gone back to veteran QB Damon Huard (2 TDs, 4 picks), but this is a run-first offense with RB Larry Johnson (who is suspended for this game)...and they run into a dominant Tennessee D-line. TE Tony Gonzales wants out, and can you blame him? Gonzalez is 32 years old, and the sense of urgency to play for a contender has never been greater. Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said quarterback Brodie Croyle has healed from his separated right shoulder, but he still has timing issues. Can't really see much scoring here from the Chiefs with QB issues and no Larry Johnson. Take the Titans here in what could easily be a shutout win.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Ny Jets at Oakland

The Jets are 21-7-1 ATS their last 29 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their last game and they are 12-5-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. Oakland is 28-57-1 ATS their last 86 games and they are 26-54-1 ATS off a straight up loss by more than 14 points. The Raiders are 8-24 ATS their last 32 home games and they are 3-11 ATS after scoring 15 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jimmy The Moose

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 5-0 SU and ATS and have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Offensively the Titans are averaging 23 PPG while the stingy D is allowing the opposition 11.2 points per contest. The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. In their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record they are 5-1 at the window. The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. In their last game the Chiefs were shutout by the Panthers and Carolina's D isn't as good as the Titans. The Chiefs are averaging 13 PPG and don't be surprised if they don't hit that today. The Titans are just that much better than the Chiefs and will easily take this one. Play on the Titans -.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Oct
PICK: Miami Dolphins -2.5 5Dimes

Joe Flacco has a long way to go before he can be considered the type of NFL quarterback who is capable of winning games for his team on the road. Flacco got off to a solid start this year in a pair of home games against lesser defenses, where the Ravens running game was strong enough to carry the offense. But once the competition stiffened, Flacco’s numbers and the Ravens results have suffered. During Baltimore’s current three game losing streak, Flacco has taken nine sacks, thrown five interceptions and fumbled four times.

The Ravens offensive line is a banged up, battered and bruised unit right now. Guard Marshall Yanda was placed on IR this week. Tackle Adam Terry is not likely to suit up on Sunday for the second straight week. And the tackle on the other side, Jared Gaither, has been limited in practice all week with a neck problem. With leading rushers Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee banged up as well, it’s looks like Flacco is expected to lead the attack for Baltimore here, behind a suspect offensive line against a quality Dolphins defense. I expect Flacco and his supporting cast to struggle.

The Dolphins have upset New England 38-15 and San Diego 17-10 over the course of their last three games. First year head coach Tony Sparano has proven to be a breath of fresh air for a team that won only one game last year, with his non-conventional offensive approach. Unlike Baltimore, Miami is not struggling to score points these days, hanging 28 on Houston last week, as Chad Pennington threw for 284 yards while Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams moved the chains steadily on the ground all afternoon. Miami is the better team here, making the Dolphins worth a strong look as long as this pointspread stays below a field goal. Take the Dolphins.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Brian Graves

New Orleans vs. Carolina
Pick: Over 44.5

Nobody is on as big a roll as Drew Brees right now, but the problem is he doesn't get alot of help from his defense. After the horrible game that Delhomme had last week in Tampa I am willing to bet he bounces back with a big game against a Saint defense that gives up alot of big plays. This game will be close all the way as both teams will trade scores before Carolina finally wins 34-30!

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

SCOTT FERRALL

TENNESSEE -7.5 to Chiefs--The Titans do their thing in KC--too much defense for the Chiefs to handle.  Larry Johnson's off field problems are a distraction for the team as well, plus their QB's stink

PITTSBURGH 9.5 to Bengals--division game, but Cincy still blows and they've got problems.  I don't see how they slow down the Pittsburgh offense.

DOLPHINS -3 to Baltimore--Miami seems to be playing good football, even when they lose.  They'll be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the Ravens

CHICAGO -3 to Minnesota--Bears recover from the humiliation in Atlanta by taking it out on the Vikes, who barely got by the lowly Lions last week

HOUSTON -8.5 to Lions--the Texans get unglued on Detroit and Andre Johnson puts on a show for the fans in H Town

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Frank Jordan

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play:Carolina Panthers -3

New Orleans is 3-3 and in last place as the three teams ahead of them are 4-2 including the Panthers. Carolina is a perfect 3-0 in three games at home as they host their division rivals. Look for Carolina to make their move in the division with a home win moving to 2-1 in division play. Play Carolina

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

Carolina -3 over New Orleans

I always tell you to bet the same amount of money on every game. Look at what happen yesterday with Oklahoma and Michigan. Anything can happen, but when I break down my games I go through a very complex process. The Panthers passed every grade I gave them and I cannot see how they lose this game. Carolina owns a big size advantage on both sides of the ball and they play great on their home turf. New Orleans is not good away from home and Carolina needs to win this big division game at home. Take the Panthers.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

JB's Computer Picks

Bills +1
Steelers -9½
Chiefs +8
Dolphins -3
Panthers -3
Bears -3
Giants -10½
Cowboys -7
Texans -8½
Redskins -7
Colts -2
Jets -3
Buccaneers -10½ * * *

Best Bet ***

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

ANDRE GOMES

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants

The Giants were humiliated last Monday Night by the Browns, with the whole country watching it. They lost by 14-35 and if we add the 9 points they were favored before the game, gave them an ATS loss of 30 points! The consequences of that result on a tremendous spot in the following game for them, as they will want to show that disaster was just an accident. It's only necessary to see the reactions of that game:

"This team will bounce back. I believe that," Tom Coughlin said. "I think it will be a good week of focus and a good week of practice. It is disappointing to fall into whatever lapse we fell into in not playing as well as we have been playing. Our expectation was to go there, we knew it was going to be a tough game, we knew that they were a physical football team, we knew that their backs were against the wall playing at their place, they had made a big deal about 'Monday Night Football' and that type of thing, and yet the message really obviously never really got across the way we had hoped."

"We didn't like the fact that we didn't show up on Monday night. . . . We just didn't like the way we lost. That was the thing a lot of people were disappointed about," said defensive end Justin Tuck .

So, I expect a strong reaction of the Giants, who have showed they can slaughter teams, like they did in their wins by 44-13 in St Louis and by 44-6 at home against Seattle. And as they will face the Niners this week, the chance of a rout is huge.

The Niners lost at home against the Eagles by 26-40, being outscored by 0-23 in the last quarter. QB O'Sullivan doesn't get any help from the OL and on the last 3 games, he had 4 TD and 7 Int. Also his passing rating was terrible, with 59.6, 55.9 and 49.2. And against a very strong defense of the Giants, O'Sullivan will struggle even more than usual. Besides the bounce back factor of the Giants, there is also another important factor to note. This will be the first trip of the Niners to the East Coast this season and we all know how tough it is for the teams from the NFC West struggle at playing at 10AM pacific time. Seattle has shown that in New York this game and Mike Nolan is heading to a place that hasn't been very kind to him the last three years - the eastern seaboard. In three years under Nolan, the 49ers are 1-8 in games played in the eastern time zone, including a 0-5 record last season.

On my research, I've found some trend which show how strong is the bounce back spot of the Giants, after all they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Also teams which were beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season are 44-16 ATS in their following game over the last 10 seasons. It's curious to see that the Giants are just 10 points favorites on this game, in a bounce back situation for them and we have seen this season the Giants being 13 points favorites against the Bengals, so this line is accessible and that's why I'm taking them in here. Take the Giants.

Play on New York Giants -10

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: Tennessee Titans -9

Put us down on the Tennessee Titans -9 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. In respect of yardage, the Chiefs' last game was their absolute worst in more than two decades. Kansas City's miserable 34-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers showed the Chiefs being held to just 127 yards, 50 of which came in the futile 4th quarter. The Kansas City offense is horrendous, and out of 7 career starts QB Brodie Croyle is completely winless. Tennessee on the other hand has an excellent defense that has held opponents to 11.2 points per game; a low in the NFL. In their last 10 games, the Titan adversaries have been held to no more than 20 points during regulation but have themselves averaged 23 points per game. The Titans have a great QB in Kerry Collins who despite his limited mobility has been sacked just once. Both the Titans and Chiefs are off a bye this week, but Tennessee has the advantage of better coaching as well as a high level of confidence and motivation. That cannot be said for the Chiefs who are aimless and bitter towards coach Herm Edwards for prematurely anticipating next season. Chief fans are lackluster and disappointed in Kansas City which isn't helping team morale. The past 10 games at home in Arrowhead stadium has the Chiefs at 2-7-1 ATS while the Titans are 13-5 ATS for their past 18 games. We will lay the points with the superior team! Tennessee Titans -9

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

PRO INFO SPORTS

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Prediction: OVER 37.5

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis: Chicago will play host to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in the Second City. The last meeting between these two teams at this site was on October 14, 2007.

Minnesota's Ryan Longwell connected on a 55-yard field goal as time expired to give the Vikings the 34 to 31 victory. In that game Vikings rookie RB Adrian Peterson had 224 yards rushing on the day.

The Bears suffered a 22 to 20 loss at the hands of the Falcons last week in Atlanta which put them at .500 for the year. The Bears went ahead 20-19 when Kyle Orton directed an 11-play, 77-yard drive that was capped by an 11-yard touchdown pass to Rashied Davis with 11 seconds left.

Chicago, though, chose to squib kick on the ensuing kickoff, which was returned to the Falcons' 44-yard line. After Matt Ryan completed a 26-yard pass with one second remaining, Jason Elam made a 48-yard field goal as time expired.

Vikings QB Gus Frerotte has won three of four starts versus the Bears. Last week against the Lions he passed for 296 yards in the win and has won three of four starts this season. RB Adrian Peterson is averaging 95.2 yards rushing per game since entering the NFL. In his last meeting versus the Bears he rushed for 224 yards on 20 carries for an 11.2 average with three touchdowns.

With the Bears defensive secondary banged up Vikings WR Bernard Berrian could have a huge day against his old team. Berrian was actually drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 NFL draft by the Bears and spent four seasons with the club. Berrian has 17 career TD's and 12 of those have been for 30+ yards.

Bears QB Kyle Orton has won fourteen of twenty starts in the NFL. Orton is 10-2 in home starts and has a 6-2 record against the NFC North division. Chicago rookie RB Matt Forte leads NFL rookies with 459 yards rushing on the season. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 665 yards from scrimmage and leads the team with 27 receptions.

Pro Bowl PR-KR-WR Devin Hester has three touchdowns in the past three meetings against the Vikings. In those three he has two punt returns for TD's of 45 and 89 yards and 1 TD reception of 81 yards. Hester has 15 career TD's and averages 76.7 yards per TD.
Our Defensive Passer Ratings Index shows both teams can be beaten by the passing game. Chicago has a rating of 74.4 while the Tennessee Titans lead the league with a rating of 52.2. Minnesota's defensive rating is 79.4 which is also well below the top teams in the league.

Technical support for our selection comes from both teams. We know that the Bears are 17-4 Over their last 21 at home. The Bears are 13-2 Over as a favorite after playing as a favorite. The Bears are 18-5 Over after playing as a favorite. The Bears are 8-1 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Bears are 5-1 Over when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

The Vikings are 15-4 Over after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Vikings are 6-0 Over within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Vikings are 10-2 Over on the road after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Vikings have gone "Over" in all three road games this season.

Data Base research has uncovered several technical situations that are active for today's contest. NFL Teams are 22-9 Over as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 16-4 Over when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. NFL Teams are 21-6 Over on the road after a win at home as a favorite in which they were losing at the half.

NFL Teams are 28-4 Over within 3 of pick the week after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over within 3 of pick at home the week before their bye. NFL Teams are 45-19-1 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over at home the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL Teams are 18-4 Over within 3 of pick when they are 500 after a straight up loss on the road. NFL Teams are 16-4 Over within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks.

In today's game both teams have players that can change the outcome with one touch of the football. Chicago's Devin Hester is always a threat to take one to the house and Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has the same ability anytime he touches the ball. This game should see several big plays including special teams and that will lead to this game going "Over" the posted total.

Not only do we have the fundamental support for an "Over" we also have strong technical support so we will make this our 2* NFL Free Total Selection of the Week!

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Minnesota / Chicago Over 37.5

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Baltimore Ravens +3

Off last week’s SU and ATS road loss at Indianapolis, Baltimore applies to a reliable 53-14 ATS road dog system of mine and I’m going to take the Ravens plus the points.

Black Birds quarterback Joe Flacco is struggling a bit and the Ravens are just 7-22 SU and ATS in their last 29 on foreign soil. Fortunately, there’s nothing wrong with this powerful Baltimore defense. The Ravens stop unit is No. 1 in the league allowing opponents an average of only 220.8 yards per game. Miami RB Ronnie Brown has chewed up 336 yards overland this season but he won’t get very many here. Baltimore hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 straight games and that streak is definitely worth noting.

Fading Miami in the Florida sun shouldn’t be a problem for anyone. In their last 39 games at home, the Dolphins are a sot 10-28-1 ATS including 3-21 ATS in this set priced as a favorite or an underdog of +2’ or less. With those two situations in play and the Fish entering off a straight up loss, this situation crashes to a horrendous 0-12 ATS! Miami applies to both technical sets.

Off back-to-back SU and ATS losses and matched up against a non-division foe, the Ravens have cashed 18 of their last 29. Behind a tenacious “D” that has limited foes to an average of only 66.4 yards on the ground and 154.4 yards through the air, watch the Black Birds sneak into Dolphins Stadium and pull off this shocker. Take Baltimore!

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: Houston over Detroit

The Lions franchise continues to suffer and their venture against Minnesota last week (212 total yards of offense) was sad overall. Here they step in the face of the Texans dying to blowout any football team. The Lions are 1-6 ATS on the road and 3-10 ATS after gaining under 350 yards of offense. Looks to be a very bad spot for the visitor.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Play ON Chicago Bears (-) vs Minnesota

We correctly faded the Vikings right here in this spot last week and we will do the same again this week. As we noted in last week’s write-up heading into Week 6: “The Vikings are coming off of a tight Monday night win over the Saints. It was a crazy game with turnovers, punt returns for TD’s, big kickoff returns, and a fumble return for a TD. As it turned out, the Vikings certainly got the better end of it! The Saints turned the ball over four times while the Vikings managed to avoid the turnover bug. However, all is not well in Minnesota. Their special teams coverage is absolutely a concern right now. They also have to be concerned about getting outgained by 100+ yards in that game. The Vikings offense made a few plays when it had to but, overall, the results just were not there for a Minnesota team that only gained 270 yards in the game.” The point of all this last week was simply that the Vikings made for an over-rated team heading into Week 6 and, as expected, they struggled and barely squeaked by the Lions. Note that the Vikings did have a substantial yardage edge against the Lions last week but turnovers were an issue and, all in all, this is a team that’s hard to trust with Gus Frerotte at QB! Now this week, the Vikings face a Bears team that will come in fired up after losing their game in crazy fashion at Atlanta last week. The good news for Chicago is that they moved the ball well and QB Kyle Orton continues to look more and more comfortable in the pocket for the Bears. Chicago also saw RB Matt Forte run much better this week than he had last week and that should be enough to at least keep the Vikings tough run defense “honest” in this one to where Minnesota can’t simply just focus on the passing game of the Bears. With three teams tied atop the NFC North at 3-3 this is absolutely a critical early-season divisional match-up and the edge goes to the home team! Chicago had won six straight home games against the Vikings before coming up short at Soldier Field in last season’s match-up. They also weren’t happy about losing at Minnesota late in the season when they had a chance to damage the Vikings playoff hopes! It’s payback time on Sunday!

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Jimmy Thompson

Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Boston -130

You don't have to be a genius to take Boston right now as they feel like they are going to pull off a 3rd straight comeback in the ALCS. Meanwhile the Rays know they blew this series on Thursday Night so both their fates are already sealed. Boston will win this game and then the World Series also.

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Minnesota at CHICAGO -3 

Our initial reaction when we see two black-and-blue division teams hooking up is to look for a low-scoring contest, and on the surface this Vikings-Bears clash would seem to fit the bill...but not so fast!

Minnesota has been an easy team to figure out totals-wise this season: If they are at home, you go LOW, and if they are on the road, you go HIGH. All 3 of the Vikings home games have gone UNDER the posted total, while all 3 of their road games have gone OVER the posted price this season, and today does not look like an exception to that trend.

Chicago sports a strong OVER trend at Soldier Field recently, as 17 of their last 21 home dates have gone OVER the posted price. Included is their last two meetings with Minnesota in the Windy City.

After scoring just 12 points last week at home against Detroit, look for Minny to open things up this afternoon against Chicago.

Play on the OVER.

4♦ OVER

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