ASA: System Angles - Week 8
ASA: System Angles - Week 8
System Angles - Week 8
College Football “Bet” You Didn’t Know - System Smashers
* These are simply point spread observations and NOT our selections!
USC @ Washington State (+42) – Only one time in the history of the Pac 10 conference, has a team been a road favorite of 40 points or more. That was back in 1991 when Washington went to Oregon State as a 42-point favorite and covered winning 58-6. It’s only happened nine times since 1993 in all of college football with the big chalk covering just twice. The Cougars have never been a dog of this magnitude. In fact, they’ve only been a 30-point or more dog just once and that was in 1991 when they went to Washington as a 34-point puppy.
Michigan @ Penn State (-24) – Oh how far the Wolverines have fallen. They are 24-point dogs this weekend which marks the largest number in the history of Michigan football. In fact, since 1980, the Wolverines have been a double digit underdog only THREE times with the highest number being +17 @ Ohio State in 1996. The Maize and Blue are actually 1-0 ATS as a dog this season and 34-17-1 vs. the number in that role since 1980.
Wake Forest @ Maryland (-1.5) – While head coach Jim Grobe has really put Wake’s football program on the map, they still thrive on the role of underdog. In other words, they have not been a money maker when they are expected to win. Since 1999, the Demon Deacons have been a favorite 37 times. Their spread record in that spot is only 12-24-1 (33%).
Missouri @ Texas (-7) – One might think that UT would struggle the week after playing their biggest rival Oklahoma. As of late, the opposite has actually been the case. The Horns last out right loss the week after the OU game was back in 1997. They have also covered 8 of their last 9 games the week after playing the Sooners.
Kansas @ Oklahoma (-18) – Playing off our Texas – OU possible letdown scenario, to our surprise, we come up with similar results. The Sooners also seem to avoid the “lull” that might be expected after such a huge game. The last time Oklahoma lost out right following the Red River Rivalry was back in 1998. They have also been successful vs. the number at 7-3 the last 10 games following Texas.
Pittsburgh @ Navy (-3.5) – Starring in a tale of two teams, we present the Navy Midshipmen. As road underdog, they are money. Since 1980 the Middies are 60-30-1 ATS when getting points on the road. However, that does them no good here at home. In an unexplainable phenomenon, Navy is just 9-23-1 ATS (28%) as a home underdog.
Miami (Oh) @ Bowling Green (-9) – Miami has dominated this series and they have NEVER been an underdog of more than 4-points in this clash until this year. The Redhawks have now won 8 of the last 9 meetings out right and covered 7 of the last 8.
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M (+21) – The Aggies have been a home dog of 20 or more points just two times since 1980. Both of those games were against Texas. Tech has absolutely owned this series covering 21 of the 28 games played since 1980. This is, however, the highest number they have EVER laid vs. A&M. In fact, this will only be the sixth time in the last 29 meetings that the Red Raiders are actually favored in this series.
North Carolina @ Virginia (+5.5) – This doesn’t look like a great spot for UNC to be a road favorite. Charlottesville has been a house of horrors for the Tar Heels as they have now lost 13 straight games at UVA. Their last SU win on the road vs. the Cavs was back in 1981. The Heels have also been horrendous ATS @ Virginia going 2-12 vs. the number their last 14.
Indiana @ Illinois (-17) – The Hoosiers have played just one road game this year @ Minnesota. IU has yet to cover a game this season. They have been a terrible road team going just 12-56 SU away from home since the start of the 1995 season. They haven’t done much better ATS on the road where they come in with a record of 12-30-3 (28%) their last 45 road tilts.
Air Force @ UNLV (+4.5) – Air Force has been a big time spread beater going 13-4 ATS since Troy Calhoun took over as head coach last season. These two Mountain West foes have matched up every year since 1996. The Falcons have been favored in all but one of those meetings. The Running Rebs had last week off, however rest doesn’t seem to help this team. They are 0-5 SU their last five games off a bye. They are also just 1-5 ATS their last six games off a week of rest.
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