Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jack Jones

North Carolina vs. Virginia    
Play: Virginia +4½

The Cavaliers have found some balance with their offense with a solid running game and a rapidly improving quarterback in Mark Verica. This team has gained over 400 yards against Maryland and East Carolina with 200+ yards in both rushing and passing. North Carolina is getting a lot of love, but this team is consistently outgained week after week but finds a way to win. We just don't see them winning the turnover battle and special teams race every week. Add in the fact that the Tar Heels have played three games in a row on national television and you can start to smell a let down.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Martin

1 Unit on Oklahoma State -16.5

Oklahoma State is coming off a huge win over Missouri and most would consider this a letdown spot, but not me. Oklahoma State plays a terrible Baylor team this week that doesn’t stand a chance of staying within the number Saturday. When Baylor has played the top-tier teams in the country, they have been absolutely rocked. Baylor lost a pair of home games to Wake Forest 41-13 and to Oklahoma 49-17. The Bears do not match up well against the best teams in the country, although they’ve had success against three teams with losing records. Oklahoma State will put Baylor in their place again Saturday. Oky State won 45-14 at Baylor last year and 66-24 at home over the Bears in 2006. This may be the best team in school history for the Cowboys, and they aren’t about to let Baylor ruin the 6-0 season they have built up to this point. The Cowboys are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Baylor. The Cowboys are winning their home games by an average of 30.5 points/game this season. Even a small letdown will have the Cowboys winning this one by at least 20 points. Cash in with Oklahoma State as the favorite.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M    
Play: Texas Tech -20.5

Wow I guess one bad week on offense last week has caused this spread to be in my opinion 6.5 pts too low. TTech will score over 45 pts this week and win by 25 or more. Get on this one before it goes up. Texas A&M has played better lately but they don't have the athletes to play with the octane TTech team. Enjoy this blowout free play. SCORE TTECH 52 - T A&M 23

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Ferrall

Missouri +6.5 from Texas--The Tigers rebound from loss to Okla St and the Longhorns can't handle two straight huge games

Virginia +5.5 from North Carolina--Tate is gone for the year and they fumble this one away in Charlottesville

Nevada -19.5 to Utah St--because they are at home

Penn St -23.5 to Michigan--The Wolverines are lame and the Lions should roar at home in Happy Valley

Oregon St -14 to Washington--Even on the road the Beavs should rock the winless Huskies

Arkansas +10 from Kentucky--this one is closer than it looks

Colorado -3 to Kansas St--The Buffs get it done in Boulder

UNLV +4.5 from Air Force--The Falcons don't cover at Sam Boyd in Sin City

UTEP +17.5 from Tulsa-The Miners are better than they look and are unbeaten in Conference USA (they both are 3-0 in conf)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Wild Bill

Florida St -11 1/2 (5 units)
U Conn pk (5 units)
Boston College -2 (5 units)
So. Florida -23 1/2 (5 units)
W Michigan +3 (5 units)
Texas Tech -21 (5 units)
USC -42 (5 units)
No. Carolina -5 1/2 (5 units)
No. Illinois -7 (5 units)
Penn St -24 (5 units)
Oregon St -14 (5 units)
Kentucky -10 1/2 (5 units)
Kansas St +3 (5 units)
Houston -12 (5 units)
Air Force -4 (5 units)
Stanford +2 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas St +4 1/2 (5 units)
Troy -7 1/2 (5 units)
Over 56 ECU-Memphis (5 units)
Over 59 Oklahoma-Kansas (5 units)
Under 59 Nebraska-Iowa St (5 units)
Under 66 T Tech-A&M (5 units)
Under 70 S. Miss-Rice (5 units)
Over 44 1/2 Arkansas-Kentucky (5 units)
Over 62 K State-Colorado (5 units)
Under 69 1/2 Baylor-Ok State (5 units)
Under 76 1/2 Tulsa-UTEP (5 units)
Under 70 SMU-Houston (5 units)
Under 66 1/2 N Texas-ULM (5 units)
Under 66 Ark St-ULL (5 units)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Cokin

Marshall / UAB
Take Marshall

Marshall is no great shakes by any means, but the Thundering Herd are in a very advantageous scheduling spot as they face UAB. The Herd will be playing with 15 days of rest and they're looking to stay unbeaten in conference play. Marshall may have been outclassed by West Virgnia and Cincinnati, but they take a major step down in class here. It's the eighth straight week of action for the Blazers, and there may not be much left in the tank. The last two games were tough ones for UAB. They dropped a wild affair with Memphis and then collapsed badly after amassing a big lead against Houston. This is one of those spots where the fresh legs and a likely better mindset are likely to be the difference. I'll spot the short number with Marshall.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 307-308: Connecticut at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 86.466; Rutgers 88.066
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 2; 39
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+1); Under

Game 309-310: Wake Forest at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 94.243; Maryland 94.359
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+2); Under

Game 311-312: Georgia Tech at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 97.403; Clemson 91.316
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 6; 33
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-2); Under

Game 313-314: Memphis at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 79.606; East Carolina 83.572
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 8; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+8); Over

Game 315-316: Miami (FL) at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 85.542; Duke 88.667
Dunkel Line: Duke by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+4 1/2); Over

Game 317-318: Virginia Tech at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 97.265; Boston College 96.344
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Syracuse at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 76.310; South Florida 96.227
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 20; 42
Vegas Line: South Florida by 24; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+24); Under

Game 321-322: Wisconsin at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 94.784; Iowa 93.140
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Iowa by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+3 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Purdue at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 86.349; Northwestern 93.459
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-4); Under

Game 325-326: Kansas at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 99.423; Oklahoma 113.633
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 14; 59
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 20; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+20); Under

Game 327-328: Miami (OH) at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 67.625; Bowling Green 80.552
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 13; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 9 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-9 1/2); Over

Game 329-330: Western Michigan at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 79.243; Central Michigan 83.785
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 1; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-1); Under

Game 331-332: Nebraska at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 91.867; Iowa State 88.718
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3; 63
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+7); Over

Game 333-334: Mississippi State at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 82.371; Tennessee 95.802
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 13 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7); Over

Game 335-336: Mississippi at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 94.332; Alabama 104.778
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Alabama by 13; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+13); Over

Game 337-338: Vanderbilt at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 92.909; Georgia 114.835
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Georgia by 15; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+15); Under

Game 339-340: Akron at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 78.182; Eastern Michigan 69.083
Dunkel Line: Akron by 9; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-3); Under

Game 341-342: Colorado State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 83.862; Utah 100.482
Dunkel Line: Utah by 17 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Utah by 21; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+21); Over

Game 343-344: Texas Tech at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 101.136; Texas A&M 83.570
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 17 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 21; 66
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+21); Over

Game 345-346: Southern Mississippi at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 81.570; Rice 81.623
Dunkel Line: Even; 64
Vegas Line: Rice by 3; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+3); Under

Game 347-348: USC at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: USC 116.045; Washington State 67.873
Dunkel Line: USC by 48; 51
Vegas Line: USC by 42 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: USC (-42 1/2); Under

Game 349-350: Pittsburgh at Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 87.716; Navy 86.087
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+3 1/2); Under

Game 351-352: Ohio State at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 100.644; Michigan State 103.299
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Over

Game 353-354: Missouri at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 109.686; Texas 112.544
Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 63
Vegas Line: Texas by 6 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+6 1/2); Under

Game 355-356: North Carolina at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 93.611; Virginia 91.120
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+4 1/2); Over

Game 357-358: Toledo at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 73.595; Northern Illinois 80.160
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: Utah State at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 69.198; Nevada 86.547
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 17 1/2; 62 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 21; 66
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+21); Under

Game 361-362: Marshall at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 78.941; UAB 71.936
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Marshall by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-3); Under

Game 363-364: Michigan at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 84.556; Penn State 111.947
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 27 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Penn State by 23; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-23); Under

Game 365-366: San Diego State at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 70.905; New Mexico 83.896
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 13; 40
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 14 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+14 1/2); Under

367-368: Oregon Game State at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 103.093; Washington 84.523
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 18 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 14; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-14); Over

Game 369-370: Arkansas at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 87.239; Kentucky 90.776
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+7 1/2); Over

Game 371-372: California at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: California 101.023; Arizona 104.167
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 50
Vegas Line: California by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Idaho at Louisiana Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.506; Lousiana Tech 78.580
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 24; 58
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 20; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-20); Over

Game 375-376: Kansas State at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 90.034; Colorado 90.291
Dunkel Line: Even; 70
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+3 1/2); Over

Game 377-378: Baylor at Oklahoma StateDunkel Ratings: Baylor 89.528; Oklahoma State 111.531
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 22; 64
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 17; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-17); Under

Game 379-380: Army at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Army 68.418; Buffalo 81.928
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 10; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-10); Under

Game 381-382: LSU at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 98.767; South Carolina 101.379
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: LSU by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+3); Over

Game 383-384: UTEP at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 81.448; Tulsa 101.932
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 20 1/2; 71
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 17 1/2; 76 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-17 1/2); Under

Game 385-386: San Jose State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 78.894; New Mexico State 72.770
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 6; 52
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 387-388: Houston at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 81.999; SMU 72.678
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9; 62
Vegas Line: Houston by 13; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+13); Under

Game 389-390: Indiana at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.353; Illinois 95.866
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 13 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 15 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+15 1/2); Under

Game 391-392: Air Force at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 88.612; UNLV 81.365
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 7; 57
Vegas Line: Air Force by 5; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-5); Over

Game 393-394: Stanford at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 91.550; UCLA 88.356
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 3; 51
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+1); Over

Game 395-396: Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 71.549; Western Kentucky 76.467
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 5; 38
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-1); Under

Game 397-398: Middle Tennessee State at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 74.491; Louisville 94.416
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 20; 52
Vegas Line: Louisville by 14 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-14 1/2); Over

Game 399-400: North Texas at UL-Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 50.874; UL-Monroe 74.533
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 24; 72
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 18; 66
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-18); Over

Game 401-402: Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 81.659; UL-Lafayette 79.642
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 2; 63
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 3; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+3); Under

Game 403-404: Florida International at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 80.035; Troy 84.659
Dunkel Line: Troy by 4 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Troy by 8 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+8 1/2); Over

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College     
Play: Boston College -3

It’s payback time for the Eagles. In last year’s conference title game, Virginia Tech blasted Boston College 30-16 and walked away with the ACC crown. That fact hasn’t been sitting too well with the Chestnut Hill faithful and they want their revenge!

Defensively, BC has been a monster this season. The Eagles have recorded two goose eggs and are currently ranked 2nd in pass efficiency (90.73) and fifth in total defense (253.4 ypg)! Against Georgia Tech’s triple option attack, Boston College limited the Yellow Jackets to 162 yards on the ground. That is impressive!

There are plenty of technical reasons to like BC in this contest too. Since 1999, the Eagles have been one of the best home teams in all of college football notching a strong 47-12 SU and 35-19 ATS record. In this role running with rest, Boston College is a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS. Equally impressive, when knocking helmets with an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .700, the Eagles have stepped up their game notching a powerful 23-10 ATS record!

Since suffering a season-opening loss to East Carolina, Virginia Tech has bounced back nicely posting a 5-0 SU record in its last five games. Three of those victories came against solid programs in Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Nebraska. It is also noted that the Hokies have played extremely well in their last 20 true road games notching a ridiculous 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS record. Respect is certainly given to both of those situations but it won’t be enough to keep me off the Eagles here. BC is locked into one of my best rest systems – this baby carries a 76-26 ATS record for 74.5 percent – and I’m going to ride this sweet technical situation one more time. Take Boston College!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matty Baiungo

Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -14.5

Last week, we detailed the phoniness of Vanderbilt. And their magical ride got derailed in Starkville in a 17-14 loss. But once again, Vandy found themselves in a very fortunate situation at the half. They led by a score of 7-3, but these halftime numbers tell the real story. Mississippi St was dominating the Commodores in the stats; 9-4 in first downs, 155-42 in yardage, 4.4 – 2.1 in yards per play, 107-36 in rushing yards, and 4.7 – 2.1 in yards per rush. Despite those numbers, Vanderbilt somehow held a 4 point lead. How was this possible? After a 16 yard punt by Mississippi St, Vandy got the ball on the Bulldogs’ 17-yard line. And this happened with 4:32 left in the half. And to show you just how inept this Vandy offense is, it took them 4 minutes and 13 seconds to move the ball 17 yards. They scored a touchdown with 19 seconds remaining in the half, but to take over 4 minutes to go 17 yards is simply pathetic.

The second half saw more of the same. But Mississippi St was able to capitalize on their chances and went up 17-7 and basically put the game out of reach. For the game, Vanderbilt had a grand total of 107 yards. The fact that this team ever got to 5-0 and ranked # 13 in the country will be one of the greatest flukes in college football history. And if they couldn’t move the ball on Mississippi St or their other four opponents, then they’ll have no chance in this game. This is a huge step up in class as Georgia was the preseason # 1 and is certainly a legitimate Top 10 team. If Georgia doesn’t win this game by 30 points or more, then they too would qualify as a phony team. But expect the winning margin to be huge here.

Georgia disappointed us last week on the late phones. We used them laying 12 ½ over Tennessee, but came up short in their 26-14 win. But the box score tells us that they should have won the game by at least 30 points. The Bulldogs won yardage 458-209, including winning rushing 149-1. That’s no misprint either. But two things prevented Georgia from winning that game more convincingly. One was the fact that Georgia settled for three chip-shot field goals (34, 28 and 20 yarders), with two of those coming over the first 17 minutes of the game. And two Georgia turnovers also prevented a blowout. They key interception came on 3rd and goal from the 6-yard line when Georgia was up 20-7. Instead of either a 27-7 or 23-7 lead, the score was 20-14 after Tennessee capitalized on QB Matthew Stafford’s mistake. If Georgia comes anywhere close to last week’s production, they will annihilate Vanderbilt. Well aware of head coach Bobby Johnson’s 15-4 spread mark as a road underdog over the last five years, but most of that was when Vanderbilt was taken lightly. Georgia will not overlook the ‘Dores here because they only won by three last year in Nashville and lost at home in 2006. Georgia will be focused and things will get ugly between the hedges. Go with Georgia.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

New Mexico minus the big points against San Diego State.

Here’s all you need to know about how far the San Diego State football program has fallen: I’m more than willing to lay in excess of two touchdowns with a New Mexico squad that’s under .500 on the season. Yes, things are really that bad for the Aztecs, who started the season with an embarrassing 29-27 home loss to Division I-AA Cal Poly and have followed that up with four more defeats, the last three by double digits (35-10 at San Jose State, 41-7 at TCU, 35-10 at home last week to Air Force).

In fact, going back to last year, SDSU has dropped eight of its last nine games (3-5 ATS), the lone victory coming three weeks ago against Idaho, which is THE worst team in Division I-A. If that’s not enough, New Mexico has owned the Aztecs, winning seven straight meetings overall while covering the number in 11 of the last 13! The last time Chuck Long took his SDSU squad to Albuquerque, it got spanked 41-14 as a 10½-point road underdog in 2006.

The Lobos acquitted themselves very well in last week’s 21-3 loss at BYU, holding the Cougars to then-season-lows in points and total yards (380) – numbers since eclipsed by TCU in its win over BYU on Thursday. Bottom line: Even though the Aztecs are expected to get back talented freshman QB Ryan Lindley this week, it’s not going to make much of a difference – heck, SDSU has been outgained by eye-popping margins of 308, 413 and 330 yards in its last three losses!

Lay the points with confidence.

3♦ NEW MEXICO

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

We're going to bank on Air Force to get it done over UNLV this coming Saturday, as we could be looking at another classic Rebel meltdown in Vegas. Mike Sanford's bunch hasn't cashed a ticket in its last two weeks.

Though the Rebels are 9-4 as an underdog at Sam Boyd Stadium, dating back to 2005, the Falcons have won and covered 5 of the last 6 meetings.

And with as bada rushing defense UNLV has, I don't believe it'llbe able to contain the triple-option at all.

AIR FORCE

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SportsInsights

Connecticut vs Rutgers

Connecticut had an extra week off after their last game, a tough 38-12 loss at No. 18 North Carolina. The Huskies went into that game ranked No. 24 and undefeated, and they out-gained the Tar Heels in the loss. Turnovers and special teams did them in. UConn has one of the top tailbacks in the country in Junior Donald Brown, whom averages over 175 yards rushing per game. Sophomore QB Zach Frazer now has a start under his belt after original starter Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot three weeks ago. Head Coach Randy Edsall stressed special teams and cutting down on opponent's big plays during the bye week.

Rutgers has no wins against College Football Bowl Subdivision teams so far this season, with their lone win coming against Morgan State. They were beat handily in their first two games of the season by teams that have been ranked in the top-25 (Fresno State and North Carolina.) The Scarlet Knights other three losses were by an average of 4 points. Freshman RB Jourdan Broooks has had a solid start to his collegiate career (4.6 ypc, 5 TDs), but he isn't the stud back that Rutgers needs right now. Quarterback Mike Teel hasn't shown much consistency or playmaking ability as he's thrown seven interceptions against only 3 touchdowns.

The Scarlet Knights opened as one-point favorites at Pinnacle, but the line quickly moved to a pick. Since then the line has moved UConn to -1 favorites on the road. The movement created a positive Steam Move in favor of the Huskies. We're going to follow the steam, and the Huskies coming off a bye week.

Connecticut -1


Georgia Tech vs Clemson

Georgia Tech has opened up the Paul Johnson era better than expected by going 5-1 and looking like a contender in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets only loss came on the road at No. 17 Virginia Tech by a field goal. The strength of the team is its defense, which is allowing an average of under 11 points per game. Georgia Tech is coming off a tough 10-7 win over Gardner-Webb in which they needed a blocked field goal late to seal the win. The Ramblin' Wreck offense is based on the ground, as their quarterbacks have attempted only 71 passes on the season. Quarterbacks Jaybo Shaw and Josh Nesbitt are both expected to be ready to play after missing last week's win.

Clemson's season just hasn't gone as expected, which led to coach Tommy Bowden's resignation earlier this week. Dabo Swinney takes over for the rest of the season, and will try to make the best out of a disappointing situation. After a season-opening blowout at the hands of Alabama, the Tigers defense has been very solid while giving up less than 12 points per game. They've lost their previous two games by a total of 8 points to Maryland and Wake Forest. Tailback C.J. Spiller is out with a hamstring pull; meaning James Davis will get the bulk of the carries usually split by the Thunder and Lightning duo. Senior QB Cullen Harper is dealing with a shoulder injury, which means highly-touted freshman Willy Korn could get the start.

Clemson opened as two-point favorites at Pinnacle, but after Bowden's resignation Georgia Tech became the favorite. The Yellow Jackets are currently 2.5 point favorites while receiving 66% of the public bets. The movement triggered Smart Money plays on Clemson from books with positive results. At Sports Insights we like to follow the Smart Money, and we like to buy on bad news. Bad news doesn't come much worse than your coach resigning mid-season, so we'll take Clemson and the points in Death Valley.

Clemson +2.5


Miami (FL) vs Duke

Miami looks like they may need another year before returning to the top of the ACC, but there are signs of improvement. The Hurricanes are seeking their first conference win, and this may be their best chance until their final regular season game at North Carolina State. This will be the Hurricanes first conference road game. The Canes defense gives up chunks of yardage and is allowing over 23 points per game. The offense has become more turnover prone over the last 3 games in which they've turned it over 8 times.

Not many people were expecting Duke to start out the season this well. The Blue Devils come in with a winning record under first-year coach David Cutcliffe. They're coming off a bye week following a 27-0 loss at the hands of Georgia Tech in which they allowed over 450 yards of total offense. Junior quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has given the Blue Devils a steady presence on offense, and senior wide receiver Eron Riley has given Lewis a big target to throw to. Duke's defense has forced 12 turnovers through five games in 2008.

Miami opened as 5.5 point favorites at Pinnacle, and the Hurricanes are receiving 72% of the public's bets. The line has moved in the opposite direction to Miami -3, which is a strong indication of Smart Money on Duke. This game has seen a very high number of triggered plays, from both Smart Money and Steam Moves, all on Duke. The public is following the preconceived notions of Miami as a powerhouse and Duke as a doormat. We'll take the home dog and follow the Smart Money.

Duke +3

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Jeff Saad

LSU at South Carolina
Play: South Carolina

Florida showed that if you can stop the Tigers' running game, specifically Charles Scott, who managed only 35 yards, you can beat them. Also, LSU's run defense was exposed as it allowed 265 yards on the ground to the Gators. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 11-2 SU against LSU and his run defense gives up only 108 yards per game. Also, it's a revenge game for the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina on Saturday.

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Ben Lewis

Mississippi +11.5 at Alabama

The last time the Rebels played a top-5, unbeaten SEC team, they won at Florida straight up. And while the Rebels are only 3-3, all three losses have been to good teams: South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.“Ole Miss easily could be 5-1 or 6-0,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said. “In the two games they lost at home they had two critical turnovers.”And Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt is 5-7 all-time against top-5 foes. In all five wins, Nutt’s team entered the game unranked, and four of the five wins were on the road. Alabama is a very strong running team, leading the SEC, but run defense is a strength of Ole Miss. The Rebels allow only 3.0 yards per carry and held South Carolina to 78 yards on 35 rushes in their last game but lost because of allowing 327 yards passing.Mississippi probably won’t pull the upset in Tuscaloosa, where it has only won once, but it should certainly cover.

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Vegas Experts

Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky will not officially join the Sun Belt until next season, but considering the way things have gone for the Hilltoppers in 2008, they may want to reconsider the move up to FBS play. They are 0-5 SU this year vs. FBS teams with the average loss coming by 24 points per game. FAU might be the best 1-5 team in America as they return 18 starters from last year's SBC Title team and easily could, and should have, won the last two weeks if not for bad breaks.

Play on: Florida Atlantic

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Michael Alexander

Mississippi vs. Alabama     
Play: Mississippi +11.5

In one of the more interesting matchups of the day the Ole Miss Rebels travel to 'Bama to take on the Crimson Tide. The Rebels are coming off a bye week but lost to South Carolina the week before after pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season in beating Florida the week prior. Mississippi is 3-3 SU overall but a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when on the road. Their offense has been impressive this season averaging 29.2 points per game but their defense hasn't as they have allowed 24.7.

Alabama comes in off a bye week as well but got a scare in their previous game as they just squeaked by Kentucky by 3 points as a huge 15 point favorite. Like Mississippi, the Alabama offense hasn't had trouble scoring points as they are averaging a healty 33.7 points per game. Their Defense however has outperformed the Rebels as they are allowing a low 13.5 points per game.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. OLE MISS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

The SEC is, in my eyes, the toughest conference in the land and on any given week can produce upsets. The other thing to note is that the Crimson Tide continues to be a crummy home favorite at 3-16 ATS the last four years. I'm taking the Rebels and the points.

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Bryan Leonard

Arkansas at Kentucky

The Razorbacks have taken longer than anticipated to acclimate themselves to the new Bobby Petrino system. But the Hogs are showing signs of improvement, especially the last two weeks. They held their own for three quarters against a Florida team who dominated the national champions last week. Last Saturday Arkansas did some dominating of their own in a 25-22 win at Auburn. That game wasn't as close as the final score as the Hogs won the yardage battle 416-193. Despite the fact that Arkansas has played Alabama, Texas, Florida and Auburn the past four weeks they continue to improve.Kentucky is a very good defensive team but they don't have enough offensive weapons to pull away from the Razorbacks. Especially now that starting receiver Dicky Lyons has been lost for the season. Even with the talented receiver Kentucky struggled to move the football. Against BCS competition they managed 210 yards against Louisville, 276 yards against Alabama and 218 yards against South Carolina. While the Arkansas defense isn't of that caliber we can't expect a substantial increase without Lyons on the field. Kentucky could only muster 356 yards hosting Middle Tennessee and 398 yards here vs Western Kentucky.The line has steadily declined as the wise guys see the same thing as we have. But with the number still over a touchdown and heading lower we haven't lost the value of any key numbers. Look for a one possession game with Arkansas likely pulling the outright upset.PLAY ARKANSAS

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Great Lakes Sports

Ohio State at Michigan State
Play:Michigan State Spartans

The Michigan State Spartans has a very solid 5-2 ATS as an underdog before facing the Michigan Wolverines, and they are a very nice 7-2 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins the last three years. The Ohio State Buckeyes are a horrible 1-5 ATS this year, and is only 1-4 ATS as a favorite this year. We look for the Michigan State Spartans to be running on all cylinders as they will dismantle the Ohio State Buckeyes for the home ATS win & cover today.

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Tom Freese

Houston Cougars at SMU
Prediction: Houston Cougars

After a very tough early start Houston has in the last two weeks had a 41-24 win over East Carolina as an 11 point underdog and a win and cover over UAB 45-20. The Cougars are 5-2 ATS their last 7 October games. SMU is 5-21 ATS their last 26 games after allowing over 280 yards passing in their last game. The Mustangs are 1-7 ATS their last 8 home games and they are 3-9-1 ATS their last 13 games on grass. PLAY ON HOUSTON -

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Lenny Del Genio

Kansas at Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma

It's always interesting to see how a College Football team performs the week following its first loss of the season. Sometimes, they will lose focus after their championship hopes have disappeared and sleepwalk through their next game. This is particularly dangerous when the team comes back as a big favorite. However, other teams come back angry with a point to prove and bury their opponent. This week, we feel that Bob Stoops Oklahoma Sooners will fall into the latter category.They'll be playing a Kansas Jayhawks team that really isn't as good as their ranking this year, or last year, indicates. KU has improved exponentially under Mark Mangino (and we cashed a winning ticket on them last Sat vs. Colorado!), but that has just as much to do with a soft schedule as it does talent upgrades. Last year, they avoided BOTH Texas and Oklahoma. They were badly outclassed in their lone test, in a neutral site affair vs. Missouri, who beat the Jayhawks, 36-28, in a game that wasn't nearly that close. Their non-conference schedule was one of the weakest in the nation in 2007, something they tried to rectify this year, but once again they fell short when trying to step up as they lost at South Florida while allowing 37 points and 458 yards to a team that lost to Dave Wannstedt. Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS as a home favorite and averages 48 PPG in Norman this season. Kansas simply lacks the firepower to compete here. Since 2002, OU is 21-0 at home in conference play with the average win coming by 28 PPG.Take Oklahoma.

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